Political Guyentist
Political Guyentist

Wednesday

Cassidy Hutchinson speaks into a microphone and gestures with one hand, wearing a white blazer over a black top.
Washington Examiner
1usUpdateCases against critics

Grand jury refuses Justice Department's bid to charge Cassidy Hutchinson with lying to Congress about Jan. 6

DOJ's Civil Rights Division, run by Trump appointee Harmeet Dhillon, brought the case, and prosecutors can still try again.

In 2022, Hutchinson testified to the House Jan. 6 committee about Trump's White House. On Oct. 9, 2026, the Justice Department asked a D.C. grand jury to indict her, with the Civil Rights Division rather than the D.C. U.S. Attorney's Office running the case, a choice CBS said went unexplained.

ContextA 'no bill' does not end the matter: the Justice Department can go back to a grand jury and ask again. The Civil Rights Division is an unusual office to bring a charge of lying to Congress. Grand juries have turned this department down before. After a judge threw out the first indictment of New York Attorney General Letitia James, grand juries in Virginia refused to re-indict her on Dec. 4 and Dec. 11, 2025. The testimony at issue dates to 2022, four years ago.

WASHINGTON EXAMINER10 sources

2not newslongform

Trump announces EPA plan to loosen 2024 methane rules for oil and gas wells and scrap the Super Emitter Program

Marginal wells produce less than 5% of U.S. oil and gas but nearly 50% of the industry's methane, per EPA, and the plan eases their rules first.

What ending the Super Emitter Program takes off the books: Trigger: an outside monitor reports a leak of at least 100 kilograms of methane an hour within 15 days of spotting it Operator duty: begin investigating within five days of EPA's notice and report within 15 New Mexico backstop: its own satellite-and-aircraft program goes to an adoption hearing Dec. 1, 2026

ContextTrump's first term tried six times to roll back the 2016 EPA and Bureau of Land Management methane rules; courts or Congress undid five, from the D.C. Circuit's July 3, 2017 ruling to Congress's June 30, 2021 repeal of EPA's 2020 policy rule. The Super Emitter Program has never run, and its start was already pushed to Jan. 22, 2027.

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL5 sources

3not newslongform

Congo's Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak passes 10,000 confirmed cases, with 4,887 deaths

That makes it the second-largest Ebola outbreak on record; only West Africa's 2014–2016 epidemic, with more than 28,600 cases, was bigger.

What CDC's entry order does to U.S.-bound travelers: Anyone who has been in Congo in the past 21 days, Americans included, cannot board a commercial flight bound for the U.S. U.S. citizens recently in Uganda or South Sudan, but not Congo, must land at designated airports for health screening. On Oct. 27, CDC rated the chance of a case reaching the U.S. 'very low' and the chance of spread here 'low.'

ContextBundibugyo is one of several Ebola virus strains. Its previous record was Uganda's 2007–2008 outbreak: 149 cases and 37 deaths by WHO's count (CDC lists 131 and 42). The Ebola vaccine already in use, Ervebo, is licensed only against the Zaire strain, and nothing is approved for Bundibugyo. Responders track each patient's contacts daily for 21 days, Ebola's longest incubation (the time between infection and first symptoms). In the Oct. 25 report they reached 16,205 of 19,853 contacts, against a 95% target. WHO said on Oct. 23 that the response had about 2,000 treatment beds against a 3,000-bed goal.

NPR2 sources

Wednesday · The daily brief

Oct 282026

3 leads39 briefs21 min

BoardScroll

Executive summary3 stories

News news1

  1. Grand jury refuses Justice Department's bid to charge Cassidy Hutchinson with lying to Congress about Jan. 6DOJ's Civil Rights Division, run by Trump appointee Harmeet Dhillon, brought the case, and prosecutors can still try again.

Not news news2

  1. Trump announces EPA plan to loosen 2024 methane rules for oil and gas wells and scrap the Super Emitter ProgramMarginal wells produce less than 5% of U.S. oil and gas but nearly 50% of the industry's methane, per EPA, and the plan eases their rules first.
  2. Congo's Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak passes 10,000 confirmed cases, with 4,887 deathsThat makes it the second-largest Ebola outbreak on record; only West Africa's 2014–2016 epidemic, with more than 28,600 cases, was bigger.

News news1 story

Ongoing1 earlier update19 days

This story has run 2 times over 19 days, starting Oct 9.

  1. Justice Department asks a DC grand jury to indict Cassidy Hutchinson for lying to Congress in her 2022 Jan. 6 testimony
  2. UpdateGrand jury refuses Justice Department's bid to charge Cassidy Hutchinson with lying to Congress about Jan. 6 — this issue
WASHINGTON EXAMINERUpdateCases against critics

Grand jury refuses Justice Department's bid to charge Cassidy Hutchinson with lying to Congress about Jan. 6

DOJ's Civil Rights Division, run by Trump appointee Harmeet Dhillon, brought the case, and prosecutors can still try again.

A federal grand jury in Washington returned a "no bill" (a formal refusal to approve charges) on Tuesday, Oct. 27. Prosecutors wanted to charge the former Trump White House aide with lying in her 2022 testimony to the House Jan. 6 committee. The Washington Post first reported the vote.

The case grew out of a referral from House Republicans, reportedly from Barry Loudermilk (Rep-R Georgia). In a 2022 Truth Social post, Trump asked, "What is the Justice Department going to do about this?" He has called Hutchinson a "scam artist."

Still open. Which statement prosecutors called a lie has not been reported.

Catch upwhat happened before · 1 earlier issue

In 2022, Hutchinson testified to the House Jan. 6 committee about Trump's White House. On Oct. 9, 2026, the Justice Department asked a D.C. grand jury to indict her, with the Civil Rights Division rather than the D.C. U.S. Attorney's Office running the case, a choice CBS said went unexplained.

What a second attempt on Hutchinson would requireApproval from the responsible U.S. attorney, under Justice Manual §9-11.1203 details
  • Approval from the responsible U.S. attorney, under Justice Manual §9-11.120
  • Prior sign-off from DOJ's Criminal Division, required for any perjury-before-Congress case
  • A filing before about 2027, if the general five-year limit applies to the 2022 testimony

Quick bites17

Courts3 bites

  1. Alaska's Republican-led state government joins Peltola in asking a judge to end DOJ's certification suit

    THE HILLUpdate

    Alaska's Republican-led state government has joined Peltola in trying to end the suit. U.S. District Judge Sharon Gleason's first order, on Monday, Oct. 26, stressed that DOJ filed after Alaskans began voting. She rules on outside requests to join the case by 5 p.m. Alaska time on Wednesday, Oct. 28.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 5 earlier issues
    • Oct. 15 — Dan Sullivan (Sen-R Alaska) and Democrat Mary Peltola, a former congresswoman, met in their final debate.
    • Oct. 22 — DOJ sued, arguing that a second candidate on the ballot, Daniel J. Sullivan, could confuse voters.
    • Oct. 23 — Trump told reporters, "I'm the one that said do it." Peltola's campaign and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee asked to join the case and have it dismissed.
    • Oct. 25 — Attorney General Todd Blanche said on CBS that the suit is "not saying, 'don't certify.'" Peltola's side asked for a ruling before Election Day.
    • Oct. 26 — Daniel J. Sullivan called the suit a "gross misuse" of the Justice Department, saying the Alaska Supreme Court had already settled his place on the ballot.
    4 earlier issues
    The second Sullivan and the suitDaniel J. Sullivan, a retired teacher, won 2.5% in Alaska's top-four primary, enough to advance to the November ballot.3 details
    • Daniel J. Sullivan, a retired teacher, won 2.5% in Alaska's top-four primary, enough to advance to the November ballot.
    • The suit, filed under the National Voter Registration Act, applies only if Sullivan loses but would have won had every Daniel J. Sullivan vote gone to him under ranked-choice counting.
    • National Review, sympathetic to the GOP complaint, still concedes "the suit is going nowhere."
    Ongoing5

    This story has run 6 times over 11 days, starting Oct 17.

    1. Sullivan breaks with Trump on Russian diesel deal in final toss-up Alaska Senate debate with Peltola
    2. UpdateJustice Department sues to block Alaska's Senate certification if Sen. Dan Sullivan loses, citing a second candidate named Daniel J. Sullivan
    3. UpdatePeltola's campaign and Senate Democrats file to defeat DOJ suit seeking to block Alaska's Senate certification if Sen. Sullivan loses
    4. UpdateBlanche says DOJ's Alaska suit is 'not saying don't certify'; the complaint asks a court to block certification if Sen. Dan Sullivan loses
    5. UpdateDaniel J. Sullivan, the second Sullivan on Alaska's ballot, calls DOJ's certification suit a 'gross misuse'
    6. UpdateAlaska's Republican-led state government joins Peltola in asking a judge to end DOJ's certification suit — this issue

  2. Judge strikes DOJ's unsigned overnight obstruction charge against two ex-FBI officials

    NBC NEWSUpdate

    Magistrate Judge Zia Faruqui on Tuesday, Oct. 27, struck a new obstruction charge against former FBI officials Nikki Floris and Bradley Benavides. Prosecutors had filed it overnight in a superseding complaint that no agent or judge had signed. The two now face only the original false-statements charge. Faruqui warned that "this system is being misused by people of higher levels." The hearing on the original charge went ahead and resumes Wednesday, Oct. 28.

    On Friday, Oct. 23, U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro announced charges that Floris and Benavides lied to Congress in 2023 about the FBI's handling of the Hunter Biden laptop investigation.

    • Prosecutor John Borchert acknowledged filing charges this way had never been done before.
    • Faruqui: "It makes it look like the United States is afraid of me trying to find probable cause."
    • The alleged false statements to Congress came on July 19, 2023 (Floris) and Sept. 28, 2023 (Benavides).

  3. Supreme Court refuses to revive rule letting immigration judges close deportation cases

    WASHINGTON EXAMINER

    The Supreme Court turned down an emergency bid from cities led by Baltimore, so a June ruling stays in place. The cities had asked the Court to undo the consent judgment Judge Reed O'Connor entered then. The Court gave no reason. It noted no dissent. The Justice Department had agreed with Texas not to defend the rule.

    What the cities lostThe rule let immigration judges administratively close deportation cases, taking them off the active docket.2 details
    • The rule let immigration judges administratively close deportation cases, taking them off the active docket.
    • The cities argued that if the judgment stands, the rule that agencies must repeal rules through the same process "will be effectively a dead letter."
The Justice Department's fights2 bites

  1. Parents of Alex Pretti, the nurse killed by immigration agents in January, accuse DOJ of stonewalling them

    NBC NEWSICE raids

    DOJ answered that family contact usually comes later in a case, "such as indictment, initial appearance, plea, trial, or sentencing," while Minnesota prosecutors say federal authorities stopped sharing evidence with them this month.

    • Alex Pretti, 37, an ICU nurse, was shot by federal immigration agents in Minneapolis on Jan. 24, 2026.
    • He was killed during Operation Metro Surge, which sent more than 3,000 immigration officers and agents to Minnesota (NBC).
    • The family says Washington has kept them in the dark for 275 days (NBC).
    Ongoing1

    This story has run 2 times over 4 days, starting Oct 24.

    1. Minnesota asks judge to force DOJ to hand over evidence in federal agents' killings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti
    2. Parents of Alex Pretti, the nurse killed by immigration agents in January, accuse DOJ of stonewalling them — this issue

  2. FBI searches billionaire ex-donor Stephen Cloobeck's Beverly Hills mansion in criminal probe of Eric Swalwell

    CBS NEWS

    About two dozen FBI agents searched the house early on Oct. 27, CBS and Fox News reported. Eric Swalwell, a former Democratic congressman from California, had stayed there before he resigned in April after sexual misconduct allegations, which he denies. The FBI and the Justice Department say only that the search is part of an ongoing criminal investigation. The AP reports the federal probe is one of several opened after a woman who worked for Swalwell accused him of sexually assaulting her twice. No charge against Swalwell has been reported.

    The donor and the probeCloobeck was a major backer of Swalwell's governor bid, then cut ties in April: "I am no longer associated with a man that takes…2 details
    • Cloobeck was a major backer of Swalwell's governor bid, then cut ties in April: "I am no longer associated with a man that takes advantage of women."
    • In August the FBI searched Swalwell's D.C. home and seized his devices at San Francisco airport.
The administration's oil imports2 bites

  1. Three tankers carrying 140,000 tons of Russian diesel under Trump's Putin deal head for U.S.

    FOX NEWSUpdateRussia diesel deal

    Three tankers carrying about 140,000 metric tons of Russian diesel under Trump's Oct. 9 deal are crossing the Atlantic toward U.S. ports, Fox News and the Financial Times report. Opponents say the imports break the 2022 U.S. ban on Russian energy imports. Former Treasury sanctions official Jeremy Paner told Fox the president has the legal authority to allow them.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 8 earlier issues

    On Oct. 9, Trump said Putin had agreed to release Russian diesel, and Treasury's General License 135 allowed imports through April 7, 2027. On Oct. 24, Democrats and Thom Tillis (Sen-R North Carolina) warned 6 banks and 4 ports that handling the fuel could bring legal action and congressional investigations, and told them to preserve records.

    7 earlier issues
    Where the cargoes standShip-tracking data cited by the FT has the first tanker, with about 40,000 tons, due in New York on Nov. 7, and the other two due…3 details
    • Ship-tracking data cited by the FT has the first tanker, with about 40,000 tons, due in New York on Nov. 7, and the other two due on the East Coast on Nov. 9 and Nov. 11. The FT notes destinations can change.
    • One of the three, the Talisman, is under U.S., U.K. and EU sanctions. Paner told Fox that Treasury's license still covers the cargo.
    • On Oct. 27, Richard Blumenthal (Sen-D Connecticut) asked two shipping companies to recall their tankers, arguing the license cannot override the 2022 ban.
    Ongoing8

    This story has run 9 times over 17 days, starting Oct 11.

    1. UpdateTrump says Ukraine needs "a new president" and tells Zelensky to stop striking Russian oil refineries
    2. UpdateTrump says Russia and Ukraine agreed to an immediate energy ceasefire; Moscow has not confirmed it
    3. UpdateUkraine strikes a Russian refinery, ending the three-day energy-strike pause Trump demanded
    4. UpdateEU leaders say they 'regret' Trump's lifting of Russian diesel sanctions; Trump calls Zelensky 'not a good guy'
    5. UpdateZelensky says Ukraine will negotiate 'anywhere' and seeks a U.S.–Russia–Ukraine meeting at the G20
    6. UpdateUkrainian drone hits a St. Petersburg oil terminal; Zelensky holds 40-minute call with Witkoff and Kushner
    7. UpdateTrump tells Zelensky to let 'somebody else' negotiate for Ukraine and says Russia 'has been fine'
    8. UpdateZelensky says U.S. missile-attack warnings work again after Oslo talks with Trump envoy Steve Witkoff
    9. UpdateThree tankers carrying 140,000 tons of Russian diesel under Trump's Putin deal head for U.S. — this issue

  2. Trump calls 1 million barrels of Venezuelan crude a 'gift'; the Post reports the U.S. paid, but the seller now says it was free

    THE GUARDIANFuel prices

    Trump hailed the tanker as an oil win. The Washington Post, citing two people familiar with the shipment, reported the crude was not free but bought at a steep discount. The August deal lets the U.S. buy 20% of seller NABEP's crude at $30 a barrel, under a third of the market price. NABEP first called the cargo part of that purchase right. It then revised its statement to say the first million barrels came at no cost to taxpayers, and a White House official told Reuters the same. Oil experts say the deal will not move gas prices much, the Post reports.

    The numbers behind the tankerAugust deal: gave the U.S. majority control of more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan reserves (Politico).3 details
    • August deal: gave the U.S. majority control of more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan reserves (Politico).
    • July: U.S. imported more than 24 million barrels from Venezuela, the most since 2017 (Washington Examiner).
    • Secretary of State Marco Rubio, there as national security adviser (The Guardian), was coaxed on stage and spoke for 11 seconds (The Hill).
Also tonight4 bites

  1. Flávio Bolsonaro leaves Brazil for the U.S. as his passport deadline expires; State Department will issue visas

    WASHINGTON EXAMINERUpdateBrazil election

    Bolsonaro left Brazil as a noon deadline ran out on Tuesday, Oct. 27, to hand over his passports in a Brazilian Supreme Court money-laundering probe. He is reportedly headed to Florida. Brazil then canceled the passports; he denies wrongdoing.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 6 earlier issues
    • Oct. 4 — Flávio Bolsonaro finished first over President Lula da Silva in the first round, forcing a runoff. The final Datafolha poll had shown Lula ahead 42%-38%.
    • Oct. 25 — Trump officials campaigned for Bolsonaro. Lula won the runoff, taking a record fourth term.
    • Oct. 26 — Trump said the vote looked "rigged." Bolsonaro's campaign dropped its bid to annul the result. It said it would accuse Lula of abuse of power instead.
    5 earlier issues
    The Bolsonaro family's legal recordFather Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year sentence for the coup plot.3 details
    • Father Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year sentence for the coup plot. He is under house arrest.
    • Brother Eduardo Bolsonaro got a 4-year prison sentence in absentia for illegally lobbying the Trump administration.
    • Eduardo to Steven Crowder before the vote: "If my brother does not win, I'm in favor that he would leave the country."
    Ongoing6

    This story has run 7 times over 24 days, starting Oct 4.

    1. Polls show Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in a close race before Brazil's first-round vote Sunday, Oct. 4
    2. UpdateFlávio Bolsonaro leads Lula in Brazil's first-round presidential vote count; Oct. 25 runoff likely
    3. UpdateFlávio Bolsonaro finishes first over Lula (President, Brazil), forcing an Oct. 25 runoff
    4. Trump officials campaign for Flávio Bolsonaro to beat Lula in Brazil's Oct. 25 runoff
    5. UpdateLula overturns first-round deficit to beat Flávio Bolsonaro for record fourth term
    6. UpdateTrump says Brazil's vote looked 'rigged'; Flávio Bolsonaro is dropping his bid to annul Lula's 4.4 million-vote win, campaign says
    7. UpdateFlávio Bolsonaro leaves Brazil for the U.S. as his passport deadline expires; State Department will issue visas — this issue

  2. Truce holds in occupied Oleshky and widens across Kherson region, officials say

    BBC NEWS

    A truce in Oleshky took effect early Tuesday, Oct. 27, and runs until 22:59 Kyiv time on Sunday, Nov. 1, said Ukrainian lawmaker David Arakhamia, who called it a "de-escalation." That day, Melania Trump said on X that it now reaches beyond Oleshky within Kherson region, to give aid convoys safe passage. Kherson's deputy head said Russian shelling had stopped across the region, BBC reports. The White House statement credits the first lady and does not mention the pope. The Vatican's newspaper credits Pope Leo XIV, who urged Putin and Zelensky to agree in calls on Oct. 16 and Oct. 19. The Kremlin praised her team's mediation, and Ukraine's ombudsman thanked her.

    Who is still in OleshkyPrewar population was 24,000. BBC reports 1,700-2,000 people remain in the city itself; a Ukrainian estimate it cites puts the…3 details
    • Prewar population was 24,000. BBC reports 1,700-2,000 people remain in the city itself; a Ukrainian estimate it cites puts the number near 6,000 counting surrounding areas.
    • The city has had no electricity, gas or water since the Kakhovka dam was blown up in 2023 (BBC).
    • Ukrainians fear evacuees will be sent to Russia or Crimea rather than across the Dnipro. An FT report raised that prospect, though it is not clear whether it describes a firm plan. Vladimir Saldo, Russia's installed head of occupied Kherson, says housing is ready in Crimea and three Russian regions (BBC).
    Ongoing1

    This story has run 2 times over 4 days, starting Oct 24.

    1. White House says Melania Trump brokered a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in occupied Oleshky for aid and evacuations
    2. Truce holds in occupied Oleshky and widens across Kherson region, officials say — this issue

  3. U.S. war against Iran has cost $47 billion, up $3.5 billion in six weeks, Pentagon tells Congress

    THE HILLIran war

    Central Command's estimate through Oct. 16, shared with Congress and reported by The Hill and USA Today, puts the cost at $47.1 billion. Its previous estimate was $43.6 billion through Sept. 3. Replacing munitions accounts for more than $29 billion, about 62% of the total. Trump has held out restarting combat after the Nov. 3 midterms, Reuters reports. "Do I finish it off, which would be very easy to do, or do I make a deal?" he told Fox News on Oct. 25.

  4. Rubio, without naming Machado: 'You're not going to street-protest your way into a democracy'

    NYTUpdate

    Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke to reporters on Monday, Oct. 26. That was a day after opposition leader María Corina Machado came home. "You're not going to street-protest your way into a democracy," he said, per Axios. He did not name her. Machado wants elections in 2027. U.S. officials told Axios they first want a new Supreme Court, a new electoral council and a fix for Venezuela's $300 billion debt. They set no election date and said it could be 2027 or 2028.

    On Oct. 25, Nobel laureate María Corina Machado returned to Venezuela after months abroad. She demanded a presidential election from the interim government of Delcy Rodríguez.

Elections6 bites

  1. Israeli exit polls give no bloc the 61 seats to govern; late updates show a tie or a Netanyahu edge

    PBS NEWSHOURUpdate

    Exit polls are estimates; the official count comes later. The first ones, from Kan, Channel 12 and Channel 13, put Eisenkot's bloc at 52-53 seats and Netanyahu's at 50. By early Wednesday, Oct. 28, Kan and Channel 13 had the blocs tied at 51, and Channel 12 had Netanyahu ahead 52-49 (Times of Israel). His coalition holds 68 seats now. Arab-led parties are projected at 18-19 seats. Netanyahu and Eisenkot have both ruled out governing with them (Al Jazeera).

    Catch upwhat happened before · 2 earlier issues
    • Mid-Oct. — Masked settlers beat Washington Post photographer Heidi Levine, burned olive groves near Abu Falah, and attacked Belgian, French and Polish diplomats in Taybeh.
    • Oct. 25 — Netanyahu shared an activist's post with an AI image of a nuclear blast over Tel Aviv. It warned of a "second Holocaust" if Israelis elect a leader who cannot confront Iran (Times of Israel).
    • Oct. 26 — Final polls showed Netanyahu's coalition and the opposition nearly tied, with Eisenkot's party often first. Israel closed West Bank crossings after an attack near Hebron killed two soldiers.
    1 earlier issue
    Other numbers from the nightLikud still leads all parties at a projected 27 seats in the updated polls; Eisenkot's Yashar is at 21-22.3 details
    • Likud still leads all parties at a projected 27 seats in the updated polls; Eisenkot's Yashar is at 21-22.
    • Final turnout was 77.7%, the highest since 1999, the Central Elections Committee said.
    • About 67,000 Israelis abroad flew home to vote, The Atlantic estimates; most citizens abroad cannot vote absentee.
    Ongoing2

    This story has run 3 times over 2 days, starting Oct 26.

    1. Israel votes Tuesday, Oct. 27, with polls showing Netanyahu's coalition and the opposition nearly tied and Eisenkot's party often first
    2. UpdateIsrael votes Tuesday, Oct. 27, and an analyst calls an indecisive result the most likely outcome
    3. UpdateIsraeli exit polls give no bloc the 61 seats to govern; late updates show a tie or a Netanyahu edge — this issue

  2. FEC takes its online filing system offline, citing an attempted breach, a week before midterms

    NBC NEWS

    Since about 10 p.m. ET Monday, Oct. 26, groups cannot file the FEC's 24- and 48-hour reports, though past reports remain searchable and voting is unaffected. In the final 20 days, FEC rules require outside groups to report spending of $1,000 or more on a race by the next day. Campaigns must report gifts of $1,000 or more within 48 hours.

    What else is knownFEC filings officer to compliance firms: "We have a bad actor attempting to breach FEC systems.4 details
    • FEC filings officer to compliance firms: "We have a bad actor attempting to breach FEC systems. As a result, we've had to temporarily shut down our web facing services."
    • The FEC has not said when filing will return or whether any data was compromised.
    • Compliance consultant Steven Mele, on the outage: "I've never seen this in 26 years."
    • Ad spending and reservations this cycle have reached $11.21 billion, per AdImpact, counting ads booked but not yet aired. That tops the full 2024 cycle's $11.20 billion and the 2022 midterms' $8.9 billion.
    Ongoing1

    This story has run 2 times over 10 days, starting Oct 18.

    1. FEC enters the midterms with two of six commissioners, too few to open investigations or answer campaigns' legal questions
    2. FEC takes its online filing system offline, citing an attempted breach, a week before midterms — this issue

  3. Final NPR/PBS/Marist poll before Election Day has Democrats up 52-44 among likely voters

    PBS NEWSHOUR

    Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by 8 among likely voters and 10 among registered voters, down from 12 last month. PBS News notes that drop is within the poll's margin of error. Democrats are also more eager to vote: 71% are very enthusiastic, versus 61% of Republicans.

    Inside the numbersVoters under 45 favor Democrats by 22 points, but only 42% of them are very enthusiastic to vote, versus 68% of those 45 and older.3 details
    • Voters under 45 favor Democrats by 22 points, but only 42% of them are very enthusiastic to vote, versus 68% of those 45 and older. PBS News calls younger voters Democrats' "biggest turnout risk."
    • 40% say family finances worsened in the past 12 months; 16% say they improved.
    • 66% of white evangelicals approve of Trump's job performance, 26 points above all Americans.

  4. Trump rallies in Corpus Christi and Lubbock for Paxton, tied 49-49 with Talarico in Fox poll

    FOX NEWSTexas Senate race

    Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico are tied 49-49 among likely voters in a new Fox poll of Texas. Trump carried the state by nearly 14 points in 2024, and Democrats have not won statewide there in 32 years.

    Polls and visitsTalarico leads the RealClearPolitics average by just under 2 points (Washington Examiner).2 details
    • Talarico leads the RealClearPolitics average by just under 2 points (Washington Examiner).
    • Fox and the Washington Examiner call this Trump's 4th Texas visit since Labor Day. PBS, counting from the September convention, calls it his 3rd swing.

  5. Sabato's Crystal Ball shifts 16 House races toward Democrats in the campaign's final week

    THE HILLBattle for the House

    Sabato's Crystal Ball moved 16 House race ratings toward Democrats on Tuesday, Oct. 27. It also moved three Senate and two governor races their way, 21 changes in all by CNN's count. The forecaster now rates 225 House seats at least Leans Democratic, 193 at least Leans Republican and 17 as Toss-ups. After its Oct. 20 update, those counts were 223, 200 and 12. A House majority is 218 seats. The seats of Rob Bresnahan (Rep-R Pennsylvania) and Monica De La Cruz (Rep-R Texas) moved from Toss-up to Leans Democratic. Six other GOP-held seats moved from Leans Republican to Toss-up, including that of Brian Fitzpatrick (Rep-R Pennsylvania). The forecaster says it may move many of those back before its final ratings.

  6. More than 35 million have voted early; registered Democrats lead 45% to 31% in 27 states

    TIME

    That count is the UF Election Lab's as of 9:54 p.m. ET Tuesday, Oct. 27, up from the nearly 33 million TIME reported that afternoon. The party split is also the lab's, from about 17 million early voters in the 27 states that register by party. It shows which party those voters are registered with, not how they voted. The U.S. Election Assistance Commission counted more than 112 million ballots in the 2022 midterms, so early turnout is already about 31% of that total. TIME puts the 2022 figure at 122 million, which is too high.

    The early vote so farAbout 18.2 million people voted early in person and 17.0 million by mail.2 details
    • About 18.2 million people voted early in person and 17.0 million by mail.
    • Unaffiliated voters cast 24% of early ballots in the 27 states with party registration.

Elections22 races

The midterms · 6 days out · November 3, 2026

D or R take the House / Senate?

Oct 27, 9:06 PM CT

U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 92%, Kalshi 91%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 67%, Kalshi 64%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

U.S. House — Democrats take it, 91.05–91.50%
92%91%chance Democrats take it · 0.4pp apart · no clear move — the venues went opposite ways
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 92% and Kalshi 91%.
U.S. Senate — Democrats take it, 63.5–66.5%
67%64%chance Democrats take it · 3.0pp apart · both venues down this week
U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 67% and Kalshi 64%.

3 closest races

  • vIowa SenateAshley Hinson 56.5%▲0.2Josh Turek 43.0%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election

    Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).

    An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa Senate

    Oct 27, 9:06 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 56.5%, Kalshi 56.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 42.5%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • sMaine SenateTroy Jackson 61.5%▲3.8Susan Collins 38.5%

    POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election

    Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).

    Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Maine Senate

    Oct 27, 9:06 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 62.5%, Kalshi 60.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 37.5%, Kalshi 39.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • zGeorgia governorKeisha Lance Bottoms 62.0%▲5.5Rick Jackson 38.0%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election

    Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).

    Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead after gaining about five points in five days.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia governor

    Oct 27, 9:06 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 62.5%, Kalshi 61.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 37.5%, Kalshi 38.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

The other 19 races22 races · 14 still in doubt · Oct 27, 9:06 PM CT · markets, not polling

Senate8 of 10

  • uAlaska SenateMary Peltola 74.0%▲0.826.0%Sullivan

    POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election

    Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).

    A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska Senate

    Oct 27, 9:06 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 74.5%, Kalshi 73.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 25.5%, Kalshi 26.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • acGeorgia SenateJon Ossoff 95.28%Collins 4.68%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election

    Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia Senate

    Oct 27, 9:06 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 95.80%, Kalshi 94.75%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 4.15%, Kalshi 5.20%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • wMichigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed 69.3%▲0.5Mike Rogers 31.0%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election

    Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan Senate

    Oct 27, 9:06 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 70.0%, Kalshi 68.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 31.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • adNebraska SenatePete Ricketts 71.8%▲0.5Osborn 28.3%

    POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election

    Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Nebraska Senate

    Oct 27, 9:06 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 72.0%, Kalshi 71.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 28.0%, Kalshi 28.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aeNew Hampshire SenateChris Pappas 90.5%▲0.29.5%Sununu

    POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election

    Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    New Hampshire Senate

    Oct 27, 9:06 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 91.5%, Kalshi 89.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 8.5%, Kalshi 10.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • abNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 96.90%▲0.8Whatley 3.10%

    POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election

    Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    North Carolina Senate

    Oct 27, 9:06 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.8pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 97.15%, Kalshi 96.65%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 2.7%, Kalshi 3.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.8pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • xOhio SenateSherrod Brown 69.0%▲1.8Jon Husted 31.3%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election

    Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).

    A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio Senate

    Oct 27, 9:06 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 70.5%, Kalshi 67.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 30.0%, Kalshi 32.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • tTexas SenateJames Talarico 66.5%▲1.2Ken Paxton 33.5%

    POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election

    James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas Senate

    Oct 27, 9:06 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 67.5%, Kalshi 65.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 32.5%, Kalshi 34.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Governors11 of 12

  • agAlaska governor12.00%87.9%WilsonBegich 0.08%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election

    Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).

    Wilson holds a clear lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska governor

    Oct 27, 9:06 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 11.5%, Kalshi 12.5%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 0.05%, Kalshi 0.10%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • aiArizona governorKatie Hobbs 90.5%9.5%Biggs

    POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election

    Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Arizona governor

    Oct 27, 9:06 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 91.5%, Kalshi 89.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 8.5%, Kalshi 10.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • amFlorida governorByron Donalds 77.5%▲2.822.0%Jolly

    POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election

    Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).

    Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Florida governor

    Oct 27, 9:06 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 78.5%, Kalshi 76.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 21.5%, Kalshi 22.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • afIowa governorRob Sand 83.8%16.0%Lahn

    POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election

    Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side gained about four points in four days.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa governor

    Oct 27, 9:06 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 85.0%, Kalshi 82.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 15.5%, Kalshi 16.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • ahMichigan governorJocelyn Benson 92.28%James 7.90%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election

    Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan governor

    Oct 27, 9:06 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.2pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 92.70%, Kalshi 91.85%; John James (R): Polymarket 7.3%, Kalshi 8.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.2pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aaNevada governorAaron Ford 78.0%▲15.7Lombardo 22.0%

    POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election

    Aaron Ford (D) faces Joe Lombardo (R).

    Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead, but no race here has moved more this week: the Republican side is down about sixteen points.

    Two markets, one question

    Nevada governor

    Oct 27, 9:06 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nevada governor. Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 79.5%, Kalshi 76.5%; Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 20.5%, Kalshi 23.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • akNew York governorKathy Hochul 94.97%Blakeman 4.97%

    POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election

    Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    New York governor

    Oct 27, 9:06 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.1pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 95.50%, Kalshi 94.45%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 4.60%, Kalshi 5.35%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.1pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • rOhio governorAmy Acton 78.0%▲2.322.5%Ramaswamy

    POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election

    Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).

    Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio governor

    Oct 27, 9:06 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 78.5%, Kalshi 77.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 21.5%, Kalshi 23.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • alPennsylvania governorJosh Shapiro 97.35%▲0.2Garrity 2.75%

    POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election

    Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Pennsylvania governor

    Oct 27, 9:06 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 97.75%, Kalshi 96.95%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.25%, Kalshi 3.25%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • ajTexas governorGreg Abbott 66.47%▲4.5Hinojosa 33.00%

    POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election

    Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead after losing about six points in three days.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas governor

    Oct 27, 9:06 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.1pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 65.45%, Kalshi 67.50%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 33.5%, Kalshi 32.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.1pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • yWisconsin governorDavid Crowley 79.8%▲1.621.0%Tiffany

    POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election

    David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).

    An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Wisconsin governor

    Oct 27, 9:06 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 80.0%, Kalshi 79.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 20%, Kalshi 22%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Oct 27, 9:06 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.

Not news news2 stories

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

Trump announces EPA plan to loosen 2024 methane rules for oil and gas wells and scrap the Super Emitter Program

Marginal wells produce less than 5% of U.S. oil and gas but nearly 50% of the industry's methane, per EPA, and the plan eases their rules first.

Donald Trump announced the Environmental Protection Agency proposal on Tuesday, Oct. 27, at a Lubbock, Texas, rally for Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton, pitching it as a way to cut fuel costs. ([TS]EPA's own announcement gives no cents-per-gallon or gas-bill estimate to back that up.)

The rules. The plan would ease the Biden administration's 2024 methane standards for low-producing, high-leaking "marginal" wells and relax limits on routine flaring (burning off unwanted gas at the well). It would also end the Super Emitter Program, which lets certified outside monitors report large leaks for EPA to pass to operators.

The pitch. EPA says the plan would save industry money, but it has not said over what period those savings would add up. Administrator Lee Zeldin said people assume drillers are "all Exxon or Chevron. But that's just not the case."

Still open. EPA has not published the economic analysis behind its savings claim, or any estimate of how much more methane the change would release.

What ending the Super Emitter Program takes off the booksTrigger: an outside monitor reports a leak of at least 100 kilograms of methane an hour within 15 days of spotting it3 details
  • Trigger: an outside monitor reports a leak of at least 100 kilograms of methane an hour within 15 days of spotting it
  • Operator duty: begin investigating within five days of EPA's notice and report within 15
  • New Mexico backstop: its own satellite-and-aircraft program goes to an adoption hearing Dec. 1, 2026
NPR

Congo's Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak passes 10,000 confirmed cases, with 4,887 deaths

That makes it the second-largest Ebola outbreak on record; only West Africa's 2014–2016 epidemic, with more than 28,600 cases, was bigger.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo had 10,060 confirmed Bundibugyo Ebola cases and 4,887 deaths through Oct. 25, by the count Congo's public health institute published Oct. 26. It is the first report above 10,000. It counts only confirmed cases; 107 suspected cases were still awaiting investigation.

The spread. Kenya has 9 confirmed cases traced to one imported infection, and all 8 people infected inside Kenya were already in quarantine when diagnosed. Its last new case came Oct. 20, the European CDC said Oct. 27. Uganda's 20 cases are over; its health ministry declared the outbreak ended July 28. Nigeria's one imported case was flown to Switzerland for care on Oct. 26.

The tools. No vaccine or drug is approved for this strain. On Oct. 23 a trial in the city of Bunia began giving Ervebo, the vaccine licensed against the Zaire strain of Ebola, to people around each new case. A treatment trial testing the antibody MBP134 and the antiviral remdesivir has enrolled patients since July 2.

Still open. Whether Ervebo protects against Bundibugyo at all. WHO's expert advisers called the evidence limited and inconclusive on May 28. The trial is meant to settle it.

What CDC's entry order does to U.S.-bound travelersAnyone who has been in Congo in the past 21 days, Americans included, cannot board a commercial flight bound for the U.S.3 details
  • Anyone who has been in Congo in the past 21 days, Americans included, cannot board a commercial flight bound for the U.S.
  • U.S. citizens recently in Uganda or South Sudan, but not Congo, must land at designated airports for health screening.
  • On Oct. 27, CDC rated the chance of a case reaching the U.S. 'very low' and the chance of spread here 'low.'
10 stories that didn't make the cutSeen by the desk, ranked, and not run. The number is where each stood in the day's order.

News

  • 44US floats postwar Russian business deals and sanctions relief to lure Putin into peace talksA reported U.S. offer of postwar business deals and sanctions relief to draw Putin into talks; cut because the only source is one X post, unconfirmed by reporting.
  • 45FBI agent testifies to White House control over Trump-target probesAn FBI agent testified that the White House controlled probes of Trump targets; cut as one thread of a crowded DOJ-politicization day with four related updates already on the page.
  • 46Democrats demand reform after a judge says DOJ ordered her to reverse rulingsA judge says DOJ ordered her to reverse rulings, and Democrats want reform; cut because the demand has no vehicle yet and the issue is heavy on DOJ.
  • 47Musk's restriction of Ukraine's Starlink access during a deadly strike draws Democratic calls for a probeDemocrats want a probe of Musk restricting Ukraine's Starlink access during a deadly strike; cut because only a call for an investigation exists so far.
  • 48CBS: Trump clemency erased $119M in victim restitutionCBS finds Trump clemency erased $119M in restitution owed to crime victims; cut because the figure is one outlet's tally and needs a check of its method.
  • 49Trump weighs renewed Iran strikes; how the war could escalateTrump is weighing renewed Iran strikes, with scenarios for escalation; cut because it is a forecast-newsletter preview of possibilities, not a decision.
  • 50RFK Jr.'s remarks on Arabs while campaigning in Michigan draw backlashRFK Jr.'s remarks about Arabs on the Michigan Senate trail drew backlash; cut because the exact quote and its effect on the race aren't established in the source.
  • 51CDC deputy director Jennifer Shuford resigns after four monthsCDC deputy director Jennifer Shuford resigned after four months; cut as a personnel move with no stated cause, though it adds to leadership turnover at the agency.
  • 53Justice Department tells the judge its no-grand-jury leak charge against Comey beat the 10-year deadlineComey's lawyers say only a grand jury indictment could stop the clock. The department says a prosecutor's filing does too. Trump called Comey a 'dirty cop.'

Election related

  • 52Consumer confidence rises in OctoberConsumer confidence rose in October ahead of the midterms; cut because a single monthly reading lacks the scale and comparison that would make it news.

More on the Elections page