Economy grew at a 3.4% annual pace in the third quarter as September inflation rose to 3.6%

CME FedWatch put the odds of a quarter-point Fed rate hike in December at 85%, ABC News reported; this was the last big data release before the Tuesday, Nov. 3 midterms.

The Commerce Department said Thursday, Oct. 29, that the economy grew at a 3.4% annual pace from July through September. That is up from 2.2% in the spring and above forecasts of 3% to 3.2%. The same day, the PCE price index (the inflation measure the Fed targets) showed prices up 3.6% in the year to September, from 3.4% in August.

Growth. Consumer spending rose at a 3.8% annual pace, and a boom in AI investment added to it. Over the past full year, growth was 2.1%.

Prices. Prices rose 0.5% from August to September alone, the biggest monthly rise since March, CNBC reported.

“The inflation outlook has become more concerning... underlying pressures are also broadening.”Ksenia Bushmeneva, TD economist

What next. This was the last big batch of economic data before the Tuesday, Nov. 3 midterms.

Catch upwhat happened before · 17 earlier issues

Sept. 22–24 — After the Fed's September hike, its first in three years, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee called reaching 2% inflation "painful"; Governor Michael Barr said more hikes were likely.
Oct. 1 — August PCE inflation came in at 3.4%, below the 3.7% forecast, and October hike odds fell to 35% from 45%.
Oct. 8 — Fed minutes showed 16 of 18 officials projected at least one more hike this year.
Oct. 15–16 — September consumer prices rose 3.7% from a year earlier; producer prices rose 6.3%, the most since December 2022.
Oct. 28 — The Fed held its rate at 3.75%–4% in a 10-2 vote, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissenting for a hike.

Oct 29UpdateFed holds its rate at 3.75%–4% in a 10-2 vote; Cook and Hammack dissent for a hike

16 earlier issues

Where the 3.4% came from, and what shrankBusiness investment outside housing grew at a 12.7% annual pace in July–September; spending on information processing equipment…3 details

Business investment outside housing grew at a 12.7% annual pace in July–September; spending on information processing equipment rose 37.4%
Housing investment fell 3.3%, down in six of the last seven quarters
Sales to private U.S. buyers ("core GDP," which leaves out trade, inventories and government) grew at a 5% annual pace

THE ATLANTICIran war

Hegseth fires Lt. Gen. Brett Sylvia, the Joint Staff's top war planner, over alleged Iran and Ukraine leaks and refers the case to the Justice Department

Sylvia is the second director of the Joint Staff's planning office pushed out under Hegseth, after Lt. Gen. Joseph McGee, and no replacement has been named while Trump weighs new strikes on Iran.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth fired Army Lt. Gen. Brett Sylvia, the Joint Staff's director of strategy, plans and policy (called J5, the office that drafts war plans and policy options for the nation's top general). The Atlantic first reported the firing Wednesday, Oct. 28. Pentagon officials say Sylvia leaked classified information about Iran and Ukraine to reporters. Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said the case went to the Justice Department after an Air Force Office of Special Investigations probe.

The evidence. Fox News and The Guardian say Sylvia failed three polygraph (lie-detector) tests; Axios says four. An internal report seen by Axios says he then admitted giving Iran and Ukraine information to two reporters over about a year, starting as early as June 2025. The report has not been released. Two other Pentagon sources told CBS News the accusations are not true.

The reaction. Parnell: "Our commitment was not an empty promise. We vowed to find you, and we meant it." Trump, calling the general "she": "She's got problems. She's gonna have big problems. We're very much looking for leakers."

Still open. The Justice Department has the referral, and no one has been named to replace Sylvia as J5.

Ongoing1 earlier update31 days

This story has run 2 times over 31 days, starting Sep 29.

Sep 29Six Republican-led states will require documentation from Medicaid enrollees who claim to be too sick to work, instead of accepting their word as federal rules allow in 2027
Oct 30Federal judge strikes Trump administration rule making disabled and chronically ill Medicaid enrollees prove they can't meet work requirements — this issue

STATELINEMedicaid and ACA cuts

Federal judge strikes Trump administration rule making disabled and chronically ill Medicaid enrollees prove they can't meet work requirements

The work requirement itself still starts Jan. 1, 2027, and the judge upheld two other limits on how states check who is exempt.

U.S. District Judge Richard Stearns in Boston on Thursday, Oct. 29, struck the federal Medicaid agency's definition of "medically frail" as contrary to law. His 16-page order is a partial win for the 25 Democratic-led states, plus D.C., that sued.

The struck test. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act requires adults 19 to 64 to log 80 hours a month of work, school or volunteering. The rule applies in the 40 states, plus D.C., that expanded Medicaid to low-income adults under the Affordable Care Act. The law exempts the medically frail. The agency's definition went further: chronically ill and disabled enrollees also had to show their condition significantly impairs their ability to meet the hours.

What survives. Stearns left the work requirement standing. He upheld two other federal limits on how states verify frailty. .

What next. The work requirement still starts Jan. 1, 2027.

What happens when a state can't confirm an exemptionDoctors, nurse practitioners, psychologists and clinical social workers can all sign frailty documentation.3 details

Doctors, nurse practitioners, psychologists and clinical social workers can all sign frailty documentation.
A noncompliance notice gives the enrollee 30 days to respond, and coverage continues during that window.
If that fails, the state must check whether the person qualifies under another Medicaid category before cutting coverage.

Red take

Judge Richard Stearns, a federal judge in Boston, erased the line between a diagnosis and a disability when he struck the Medicaid agency's test of whether a condition keeps someone from 80 hours a month of work, school or volunteering. His ruling covers all 40 expansion states and D.C., though only 25 states sued. The administration should appeal, or a diagnosis alone will decide who is excused.

Blue take

Congress exempted the medically frail in the 2025 law, and the Medicaid agency had no power to bolt on a second hurdle making blind, disabled and seriously mentally ill adults prove their condition also significantly impairs their ability to work. Judge Richard Stearns, a federal judge in Boston, rightly called that "contrary to law," and it should stay dead: Arkansas's 2018 work rule removed 23% of the people subject to it within seven months.

Quick bites16

Courts2 bites

Utah files 14 criminal gambling counts, 13 of them felonies, against Kalshi and its two co-founders
REASON Prediction markets
Utah Attorney General Derek Brown says Kalshi kept taking bets in Utah after a federal judge ruled that the state's gambling laws apply to it. The CFTC sued Utah this week to stop the state from regulating prediction markets.
The charges and the wider fightCounts: 12 felony counts of online gambling promotion, 1 felony count of pattern of unlawful activity and 1 misdemeanor count of…4 details

Counts: 12 felony counts of online gambling promotion, 1 felony count of pattern of unlawful activity and 1 misdemeanor count of gambling promotion.

Evidence cited: an undercover state agent placed 12 bets totaling $114.87 on Kalshi over two weeks, per Reason.

The CFTC says Utah is the 10th state it has taken to court over prediction markets. Reason, citing the National Conference of State Legislatures, counts more than 20 lawsuits and cease-and-desist actions pending nationwide.

Only Arizona had brought criminal charges against Kalshi before Utah, per Reason. Kalshi says Utah is "clearly playing politics."
Boulder firebomber Mohamed Soliman pleads guilty to 12 federal hate crime and explosives counts
CBS NEWS Boulder climate case
Soliman, already serving life on state charges, faces federal sentencing on Jan. 7, 2027, for the June 2025 attack on a Boulder march for Israeli hostages that killed Karen Diamond, 82.

Counts: 9 federal hate crimes and 3 explosives charges

Injured: 12 people besides Karen Diamond, who died

Sentence sought: life plus 50 years; no death penalty

Prosecutors and the election3 bites

Alaska's governor orders a state criminal probe and DOJ subpoenas Democrats over the second Dan Sullivan
CBS NEWSUpdateAlaska Senate race
On Thursday, Oct. 29, Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy ordered state police to look for criminal or civil violations. The same day, DOJ began sending grand jury subpoenas to Democratic officials tied to the second Sullivan's candidacy, AP and CBS News reported, citing unnamed sources. No one has been charged. Peltola's campaign and the DSCC deny recruiting him.
Catch upwhat happened before · 7 earlier issues

Oct. 15 — Dan Sullivan (Sen-R Alaska) broke with Trump on a Russian diesel deal in a final debate with Peltola in a toss-up race.

Oct. 22 — DOJ sued to block certification if Sullivan loses, citing a second candidate, Daniel J. Sullivan. Trump said Oct. 23: "I'm the one that said do it."

Oct. 23 — Peltola's campaign and the DSCC moved to join the suit and have it dismissed.

Oct. 25 — Attorney General Todd Blanche said on CBS that the suit is "not saying, 'don't certify.'"

Oct. 26 — Daniel J. Sullivan called the suit a "gross misuse," and Alaska's Republican-led government asked a judge to end it.

Oct. 28 — The New York Times reported Peltola's campaign helped recruit the second Sullivan; Trump called for prosecution. Former Peltola campaign manager Elisa Rios, a Times source, later said she 'retracted all statements.'

Oct 29UpdateNew York Times reports Peltola's campaign helped recruit the second Dan Sullivan; Trump calls for prosecution and DOJ seeks fast discovery
6 earlier issues
Oct 17Sullivan breaks with Trump on Russian diesel deal in final toss-up Alaska Senate debate with Peltola
Oct 24UpdateJustice Department sues to block Alaska's Senate certification if Sen. Dan Sullivan loses, citing a second candidate named Daniel J. Sullivan
Oct 25UpdatePeltola's campaign and Senate Democrats file to defeat DOJ suit seeking to block Alaska's Senate certification if Sen. Sullivan loses
Oct 26UpdateBlanche says DOJ's Alaska suit is 'not saying don't certify'; the complaint asks a court to block certification if Sen. Dan Sullivan loses
Oct 27UpdateDaniel J. Sullivan, the second Sullivan on Alaska's ballot, calls DOJ's certification suit a 'gross misuse'
Oct 28UpdateAlaska's Republican-led state government joins Peltola in asking a judge to end DOJ's certification suit
Where the probes standOn Oct. 29, DOJ amended its suit to block certification if Dan Sullivan (Sen-R Alaska) loses, calling it a 'conspiracy to…5 details

On Oct. 29, DOJ amended its suit to block certification if Dan Sullivan (Sen-R Alaska) loses, calling it a 'conspiracy to undermine the integrity of the electoral process.'

On Wednesday, Oct. 28, U.S. District Judge Sharon Gleason let Peltola's campaign, the DSCC and a League of Women Voters group join the case after DOJ dropped its objection. She can now rule on motions to dismiss it.

An unnamed DOJ official named 18 U.S.C. §§ 241 and 242. Section 241 covers conspiracy against rights; § 242 covers deprivation of rights under color of law, which usually means officials, not campaigns. The official said DOJ knows of no confirmed case of an Alaska voter picking the wrong Sullivan.

The recruitment claim rests on the Times report, which cites 12 people, text messages and documents. One of its sources, Rios, has since tried to retract her statements.

Told the scheme might not be illegal, Attorney General Todd Blanche replied: 'It should be!'

Ongoing7
This story has run 8 times over 13 days, starting Oct 17.
Oct 17Sullivan breaks with Trump on Russian diesel deal in final toss-up Alaska Senate debate with Peltola
Oct 24UpdateJustice Department sues to block Alaska's Senate certification if Sen. Dan Sullivan loses, citing a second candidate named Daniel J. Sullivan
Oct 25UpdatePeltola's campaign and Senate Democrats file to defeat DOJ suit seeking to block Alaska's Senate certification if Sen. Sullivan loses
Oct 26UpdateBlanche says DOJ's Alaska suit is 'not saying don't certify'; the complaint asks a court to block certification if Sen. Dan Sullivan loses
Oct 27UpdateDaniel J. Sullivan, the second Sullivan on Alaska's ballot, calls DOJ's certification suit a 'gross misuse'
Oct 28UpdateAlaska's Republican-led state government joins Peltola in asking a judge to end DOJ's certification suit
Oct 29UpdateNew York Times reports Peltola's campaign helped recruit the second Dan Sullivan; Trump calls for prosecution and DOJ seeks fast discovery
Oct 30UpdateAlaska's governor orders a state criminal probe and DOJ subpoenas Democrats over the second Dan Sullivan — this issue
DOJ searched Omar's home and made a third try at prosecuting Comey weeks before midterms
CBS NEWS Cases against critics
Federal agents searched the Washington home of Ilhan Omar (Rep-D Minnesota) on Oct. 12. Prosecutors are probing whether her family's immigration papers misstated her age. DOJ's third Comey case, unsealed Oct. 26, accuses him of leaking national defense information to a New York Times reporter in 2016.

This month DOJ also indicted L. Louise Lucas (St Sen-D Virginia), the Senate president pro tempore, on drug and bribery charges tied to her cannabis business. It charged ex-FBI officials Nikki Floris and Bradley Benavides with lying about the Hunter Biden probe.
On the recordThe norm is unwritten. 'If you don't absolutely need to do something within 60 days of the election just don't do it,' said…3 details

The norm is unwritten. 'If you don't absolutely need to do something within 60 days of the election just don't do it,' said Bush-era U.S. Attorney Gregory Brower.

Former senior DOJ official David Laufman called the moves a 'brazen disregard for time-honored norms.'

DOJ says it is 'following the facts and the law, not anyone's political timetable.'
Washington refuses DOJ request to set aside ballots, says its 405-name 'noncitizen' list includes U.S. citizens
CBS NEWSUpdate
On Wednesday, Oct. 28, Secretary of State Steve Hobbs told federal prosecutors the list is 'not reliable.' His office's first check found U.S. citizens on it. He said it would be illegal to hold back ballots without proof about each voter. More than 1.3 million mail ballots were already in.
Catch upwhat happened before · 1 earlier issue
In a letter dated Monday, Oct. 26, the Justice Department asked Washington to set aside ballots from 405 registrants it suspects are noncitizens. The state has more than 5 million registered voters, and one person on the list last voted in 1994, Hobbs's office said. On Oct. 23, federal prosecutors had sent California county registrars similar letters, AP reported.
Oct 27DOJ asks Washington to set aside midterm ballots from 400+ people it suspects are noncitizens
Ongoing1
This story has run 2 times over 3 days, starting Oct 27.
Oct 27DOJ asks Washington to set aside midterm ballots from 400+ people it suspects are noncitizens
Oct 30UpdateWashington refuses DOJ request to set aside ballots, says its 405-name 'noncitizen' list includes U.S. citizens — this issue

The Iran war2 bites

Pentagon adds two Air Force noncombat deaths, raising disclosed Iran war U.S. death toll to 23
WASHINGTON EXAMINER Iran war
Of the 23 deaths since the war began Feb. 28, 11 were hostile and 12 non-hostile, with 865 wounded, per the Pentagon's casualty database. The last hostile deaths were in July, the Washington Examiner reports. The 23 combines two Pentagon categories: 15 deaths under Operation Epic Fury and eight under "Overseas Operations," which began in July, per Stars and Stripes.
The recent deathsOne of the two new deaths is under investigation; the other was from illness, an Air Force spokesperson told the Washington…2 details

One of the two new deaths is under investigation; the other was from illness, an Air Force spokesperson told the Washington Examiner.

Four non-hostile deaths have been recorded since the start of September, by the Washington Examiner's count, including a Navy sailor's suicide on Sept. 14 and an Army captain's medical emergency on Sept. 18.

Ongoing1
This story has run 2 times, starting Oct 29.
Oct 29CNN says it was shut out of all six of its Air Force One pool trips; three outlets ask court to restore access
Oct 30Pentagon adds two Air Force noncombat deaths, raising disclosed Iran war U.S. death toll to 23 — this issue
CENTCOM chief briefs Trump on Iran blockade as U.S. envoy says a 'timeout' deal is close
AXIOS Iran war
Adm. Brad Cooper briefed Trump on whether the naval blockade is working. He also covered tanker escorts out of the Strait of Hormuz and the Treasury-run pressure campaign. Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack said, "I think we're very close to finally getting to a place where we can say, 'Let's just have a timeout.'"
Who was in the room and what else came upTrump and Vance discussed a goodwill gesture such as food and medicine shipments, which Trump later backed publicly.2 details

Trump and Vance discussed a goodwill gesture such as food and medicine shipments, which Trump later backed publicly.

A regional source told Axios the mediation is "at a very sensitive stage"; all of this rests on Axios alone.

Also tonight4 bites

Icelandic host FlokiNET refuses ICE contractor's request to take down leaked data on 40,000+ DHS staff
THE GUARDIANUpdateICE raids
DHS says it is investigating a possible breach, and the searchable database of more than 40,000 personnel briefly went offline, then reappeared on a new domain after FlokiNET refused to remove it.
Catch upwhat happened before · 1 earlier issue
On Wednesday, Oct. 28, DDoSecrets published names, work phone numbers and emails for more than 40,000 DHS staff across ICE, CBP, HSI and CISA, including undercover roles. The hackers, a group calling itself the "Department of Peace," say they got in through DHS's Okta single sign-on service. Okta says it has no evidence it was compromised.
Oct 29DDoSecrets publishes contact and job details for 40,000+ DHS staff, including undercover roles
The takedown fightZeroFox, a security firm acting for ICE, asked FlokiNET to remove the data.3 details

ZeroFox, a security firm acting for ICE, asked FlokiNET to remove the data.

FlokiNET refused, saying the files held work addresses and phone numbers, not personal ones.

The group claiming the hack, 'Department of Peace': DHS staff 'have our information, so it's only fair that we have theirs.'

Ongoing1
This story has run 2 times, starting Oct 29.
Oct 29DDoSecrets publishes contact and job details for 40,000+ DHS staff, including undercover roles
Oct 30UpdateIcelandic host FlokiNET refuses ICE contractor's request to take down leaked data on 40,000+ DHS staff — this issue
Trump did not act on U.S. intelligence that an executive close to Jensen Huang was gathering information for Beijing
THE HILL
Trump was told about a year ago that Alice Huang, an executive at Singapore-based Megaspeed, was gathering information for China, the New York Times reports, citing unnamed sources. He held off to avoid disrupting chip sales, the Times says. Huang is no relation to Nvidia's Jensen Huang.
What Nvidia says, and who disputes itNvidia says Jensen Huang's meetings with her were routine customer contacts, and that claims Megaspeed diverted chips to China…2 details

Nvidia says Jensen Huang's meetings with her were routine customer contacts, and that claims Megaspeed diverted chips to China were "thoroughly investigated and debunked last year."

Chris McGuire of the Council on Foreign Relations calls that false, writing on X that the claims were "proven by multiple investigations."
Trump and his aides helped Flávio Bolsonaro reach the U.S. after a 4.4 million-vote loss, the Times says
THE NEW YORK TIMESUpdateBrazil election
Trump and his aides helped Flávio Bolsonaro leave Brazil and enter the U.S., The New York Times reports. From Florida, he now calls himself 'leader of Brazil' and claims fraud. That claim rests on votes cast during extended polling hours. BBC Verify counts about 34,000 of those votes. Lula won by about 4.4 million.
Catch upwhat happened before · 8 earlier issues

Oct. 4 — Flávio Bolsonaro won Brazil's first round with 47.03% of valid votes to President Lula's 45.16%, a 2.2 million-vote lead, per the electoral court (TSE). Datafolha's last poll (Oct. 2–3, 4,006 voters, ±2 points) had Lula ahead 45% to 42% of valid votes, a statistical tie.

Oct. 25 — Trump officials campaigned for Bolsonaro, but Lula erased the deficit and won the runoff 51.79% to 48.21%, a record fourth term.

Oct. 27 — Trump called the vote 'rigged'. Bolsonaro's campaign dropped its bid to annul the result and switched to accusing Lula of abuse of power.

Oct. 28 — Bolsonaro left Brazil as his passport deadline expired. Brazil canceled his passports, and the State Department said it would grant visas to him and his family.

Oct. 29 — He flew to Miami in defiance of a court order to surrender his passports and declared himself Brazil's elected president.

Lula's margin: 4.43 million votes, 64,256,232 to 59,826,041, in the electoral court's final count

Votes cast in the extended hours Bolsonaro calls fraud: about 34,000, per BBC Verify

Only the Times reports U.S. help with the exit; no other outlet has confirmed it yet

Oct 29UpdateFlávio Bolsonaro flies to Miami despite a court order to surrender his passports and declares himself Brazil's elected president
7 earlier issues
Oct 4Polls show Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in a close race before Brazil's first-round vote Sunday, Oct. 4
Oct 5UpdateFlávio Bolsonaro leads Lula in Brazil's first-round presidential vote count; Oct. 25 runoff likely
Oct 6UpdateFlávio Bolsonaro finishes first over Lula (President, Brazil), forcing an Oct. 25 runoff
Oct 25Trump officials campaign for Flávio Bolsonaro to beat Lula in Brazil's Oct. 25 runoff
Oct 26UpdateLula overturns first-round deficit to beat Flávio Bolsonaro for record fourth term
Oct 27UpdateTrump says Brazil's vote looked 'rigged'; Flávio Bolsonaro is dropping his bid to annul Lula's 4.4 million-vote win, campaign says
Oct 28UpdateFlávio Bolsonaro leaves Brazil for the U.S. as his passport deadline expires; State Department will issue visas
Ongoing8
This story has run 9 times over 26 days, starting Oct 4.
Oct 4Polls show Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in a close race before Brazil's first-round vote Sunday, Oct. 4
Oct 5UpdateFlávio Bolsonaro leads Lula in Brazil's first-round presidential vote count; Oct. 25 runoff likely
Oct 6UpdateFlávio Bolsonaro finishes first over Lula (President, Brazil), forcing an Oct. 25 runoff
Oct 25Trump officials campaign for Flávio Bolsonaro to beat Lula in Brazil's Oct. 25 runoff
Oct 26UpdateLula overturns first-round deficit to beat Flávio Bolsonaro for record fourth term
Oct 27UpdateTrump says Brazil's vote looked 'rigged'; Flávio Bolsonaro is dropping his bid to annul Lula's 4.4 million-vote win, campaign says
Oct 28UpdateFlávio Bolsonaro leaves Brazil for the U.S. as his passport deadline expires; State Department will issue visas
Oct 29UpdateFlávio Bolsonaro flies to Miami despite a court order to surrender his passports and declares himself Brazil's elected president
Oct 30UpdateTrump and his aides helped Flávio Bolsonaro reach the U.S. after a 4.4 million-vote loss, the Times says — this issue
Seven tankers carrying 288,000 tonnes of Russian diesel head to U.S.; New Jersey governor weighs blocking one
THE GUARDIANUpdateRussia diesel deal
Greenpeace counts about 16% of Putin's pledged 1.8 million tonnes aboard; New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill calls the deal "corrupt and illegal" and is weighing ways to stop a delivery to an East Coast port.
How we got herethe story so far

Oct. 9 — Trump lifted sanctions on Russian diesel in a deal with Putin; a U.S. official told Axios the deal came after Zelensky ignored half a dozen U.S. requests to stop striking Russian refineries.

Oct. 11–16 — Trump said Ukraine needs "a new president" and announced a refinery-only ceasefire Moscow never confirmed; Ukraine broke the pause after three days.

Oct. 16–17 — Zelensky accused Washington of cutting intelligence and throttling Starlink; EU leaders said they "regret" the sanctions relief, and Trump called Zelensky "not a good guy."

Oct. 19–20 — Zelensky held his first call with Witkoff and Kushner since the deal; Trump told him to let "somebody else" negotiate.

Oct. 20 — Brian Fitzpatrick (Rep-R Pennsylvania) and Don Bacon (Rep-R Nebraska) threatened to block Trump's agenda unless he changes course on Ukraine.

Oct. 21–23 — After Oslo talks, U.S. missile warnings resumed; Putin agreed in principle to three-way talks, possibly Nov. 10 in Abu Dhabi, then fired 21 ballistic missiles at Kyiv.

Oct. 27 — The Financial Times reported the first three tankers, carrying about 140,000 tonnes of Russian diesel, were crossing the Atlantic; the first is due in New York on Nov. 7.

The deal in numbersDiesel Trump said Russia would send in three tranches under the Oct. 9 deal: 1.8 million tonnes.3 details

Diesel Trump said Russia would send in three tranches under the Oct. 9 deal: 1.8 million tonnes. Trump said 3 million more could follow if Russia's refineries allow.

Treasury's sanctions waiver, General License 135, runs to April 7, 2027, about six months.

Greenpeace's Shaun Burnie, whose group tracked the ships: "These shipments can be stopped."

Elections5 bites

Over 43 million have voted early; Democrats cast 44% of party-registration ballots to Republicans' 31.2%
BBC NEWSUpdate
More than 43 million Americans had voted early by Thursday, Oct. 29, about 4 million more than a day earlier, the University of Florida's Election Lab counted. The party split barely moved. In the 27 states that report party registration, which hold about half the ballots, registered Democrats cast 44% and Republicans 31.2%. On Oct. 27 it was 45% to 31%. Texas passed 5.8 million early ballots, up from about 5 million a day earlier. That is about 1.75 million more than its 2022 early vote, lab director Michael McDonald told the BBC.
Catch upwhat happened before · 2 earlier issues
On Oct. 28, the national count passed 39 million. ABC News modeled Texas early voters through Oct. 26 at 51% Democratic to 45% Republican, and called it a 14-point swing from 2022, when modeled Republicans finished early voting about 8 points ahead.
Oct 29UpdateOver 39 million have voted early; Texas early voters model 51% Democratic, 45% Republican
1 earlier issue
Oct 25UpdateNorth Carolina early ballots top 1.2 million, 37% above the same point in 2022
The rest of the countUnaffiliated voters cast 24.7% of early ballots in states with party registration.3 details

Unaffiliated voters cast 24.7% of early ballots in states with party registration.

McDonald told the BBC that turnout looks on track to top 2018, the highest midterm turnout in over a century.

Hispanic and Black turnout is up in North Carolina, Georgia and Florida, which record race at registration, the BBC reports.

Ongoing2
This story has run 3 times over 5 days, starting Oct 25.
Oct 25UpdateNorth Carolina early ballots top 1.2 million, 37% above the same point in 2022
Oct 29UpdateOver 39 million have voted early; Texas early voters model 51% Democratic, 45% Republican
Oct 30UpdateOver 43 million have voted early; Democrats cast 44% of party-registration ballots to Republicans' 31.2% — this issue
CNN polls: Democrats lead by 7 in Michigan and 6 in Texas; Maine and Kansas, both 49% to 45%, are statistical ties
THE HILL
CNN/SSRS polls of likely voters, taken Oct. 20–27, have Democrats ahead in four Senate races. In Maine and Kansas the Democrats lead 49% to 45%, inside the margin of error, so both races are statistical ties. SSRS says Democrats are "well-positioned" in Michigan and Texas, with "no clear leader" in Maine or Kansas.
The four racesMichigan: Democrat Abdul El-Sayed 49%, Republican Mike Rogers 42%; 768 likely voters, margin of error ±4.7 points, Oct. 20–27.4 details

Michigan: Democrat Abdul El-Sayed 49%, Republican Mike Rogers 42%; 768 likely voters, margin of error ±4.7 points, Oct. 20–27.

Texas: Democrat James Talarico 49%, Republican Ken Paxton 43%; 923 likely voters, ±4.2 points, Oct. 20–27.

Maine: Democrat Troy Jackson 49%, Susan Collins (Sen-R Maine) 45%; 783 likely voters, ±4.5 points, Oct. 20–26.

Kansas: Democrat Adam Hamilton 49%, Roger Marshall (Sen-R Kansas) 45%; 838 likely voters, ±4.5 points, Oct. 20–26.

Ongoing7
This story has run 8 times over 37 days, starting Sep 23.
Sep 23Senate Democrats can force an Iran war powers vote this week, needing five Republican crossovers
Sep 27Cook Political Report now projects Republicans will lose the House, five weeks before Election Day
Sep 30Republicans move Senate money to defend Texas and send Trump to Ohio as Georgia and North Carolina slip
Oct 7Cook moves Kansas Senate race to toss-up and shifts North Carolina and New Hampshire toward Democrats
Oct 10UpdateDemocrats' Senate Majority PAC starts $5 million Kansas ad buy against Sen. Roger Marshall
Oct 19Trump campaigns in Kansas on Monday, Oct. 19, as Roger Marshall (Sen-R Kansas) trails Democrat Adam Hamilton by under a point in one poll
Oct 24Over 20 million have voted early; registered Democrats cast 45% of returned ballots, Republicans 30%
Oct 30CNN polls: Democrats lead by 7 in Michigan and 6 in Texas; Maine and Kansas, both 49% to 45%, are statistical ties — this issue
Democrats' top Senate super PAC spends $750,000 in South Carolina, its first buy there
POLITICOUpdate
Senate Majority PAC is running a digital ad buy for Democratic Senate candidate Annie Andrews against Darline Graham (Sen-R South Carolina). Fox News rates the race a toss-up. The GOP's Senate Leadership Fund is countering with at least $5 million, more than six times the Democratic buy. Trump plans a second rally.
Catch upwhat happened before · 2 earlier issues
On Oct. 21, Cook moved South Carolina's Senate race from Likely to Lean Republican, with Darline Graham in the lead. She was appointed in July to her late brother's seat. A NYT/Siena poll then found her tied with Democrat Annie Andrews in a state Trump carried.
Oct 29NYT/Siena poll has South Carolina's Senate race tied 48% to 48% between Darline Graham and Annie Andrews
1 earlier issue
Oct 21Cook shifts South Carolina and Mississippi Senate races toward Democrats, Minnesota toward GOP; Darline Graham leads by 2.7 points
Why the race looks openIndependents back Andrews over Graham 57% to 37% in the NYT/Siena poll (The Guardian).2 details

Independents back Andrews over Graham 57% to 37% in the NYT/Siena poll (The Guardian).

South Carolina last elected a Democrat to the Senate in 1998.

Ongoing2
This story has run 3 times over 9 days, starting Oct 21.
Oct 21Cook shifts South Carolina and Mississippi Senate races toward Democrats, Minnesota toward GOP; Darline Graham leads by 2.7 points
Oct 29NYT/Siena poll has South Carolina's Senate race tied 48% to 48% between Darline Graham and Annie Andrews
Oct 30UpdateDemocrats' top Senate super PAC spends $750,000 in South Carolina, its first buy there — this issue
Thunderstorms and high winds forecast for Election Day in Texas, Kansas and Iowa
NBC NEWS
Kansas faces sustained winds of 20–30 mph with gusts over 40 mph. A National Weather Service forecaster warned north central Texas could see "high winds, large hail, maybe even tornadoes."
Trump cancels his Saturday, Oct. 31, rally in Kansas for Roger Marshall (Sen-R Kansas) and will hold a tele-rally instead
THE HILL
Asked by a Reuters reporter about his health and whether travel fatigue was behind the cancellation, Trump said: "You've been following me for two weeks. I feel perfect. You are disgusting. Put yourself in shape. You look like hell."

Elections22 races

The midterms · 4 days out · November 3, 2026

D or R take the House / Senate?

Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT

U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 94%, Kalshi 92%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 70%, Kalshi 68%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

U.S. House — Democrats take it, 91.5–93.5%

94%92%chance Democrats take it · 2.0pp apart · no clear move — one venue moved, the other did not

U.S. House: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 94% and Kalshi 92%.

U.S. Senate — Democrats take it, 67.5–69.5%

70%68%chance Democrats take it · 2.0pp apart · no clear move — the venues went opposite ways

U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 70% and Kalshi 68%.

No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only

Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.

two venues, priced separately
shaded = how far apart they are
50% — control flips here
where it stood 7 days ago
the last 7 days, on its own scale
week panel: one line a party

The week panel draws one line per party, crossing where control does. Only the Democratic line is a traded price: the Republicanline is its arithmetic complement, the same mirror the bar’s other half is, and not a second market agreeing with the first. The shading around each line is how far apart the two venues are.

Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.

The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 2.0pp gap / 2.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.

Who is defending the House and the Senate is sourced, not remembered — House, 2026-07-23 issue: the NDAA passed “216-212, with six Democrats joining a unified Republican majority.”; Senate, 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.”

Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

PolymarketU.S. House · todayWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Democratic control94%

Republican, implied6%

volume$17M

7-day move+2.0pp

KalshiU.S. House · todayWill Democrats win the House in 2026?

Democratic control92%

Republican, implied8%

volume24M contracts

bid / ask91% / 92%

7-day move+0.1pp

PolymarketU.S. Senate · todayWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Democratic control70%

Republican, implied30%

volume$6.4M

7-day move+2.0pp

KalshiU.S. Senate · todayWill Democrats win the U.S. Senate in 2026?

Democratic control68%

Republican, implied32%

volume9.2M contracts

bid / ask67% / 68%

7-day move-1.5pp

Probability that Democrats control each chamber, as each venue prices it, by day.
Day	U.S. House · Polymarket	U.S. House · Kalshi	U.S. Senate · Polymarket	U.S. Senate · Kalshi
7 days ago	—	91%	—	69%
6 days ago	—	91%	—	67%
5 days ago	92%	91%	68%	64%
4 days ago	92%	90%	66%	63%
3 days ago	92%	91%	68%	65%
2 days ago	93%	91%	69%	64%
yesterday	94%	91%	68%	67%
today	94%	92%	70%	68%

3 closest races

uIowa SenateAshley Hinson 53.5%▲4.3Josh Turek 46.5%

POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election

Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).

An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a narrow lead.

Two markets, one question

Iowa Senate

Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 54.5%, Kalshi 52.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 45.5%, Kalshi 47.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 6–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.

Money-weighted: Ashley Hinson 53% · Josh Turek 47%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Ashley Hinson (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$570K—

Kalshi4.0M contracts · 52%/53%58%

venue gap—

7-day move-3.0pp

Josh Turek (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$651K—

Kalshi3.4M contracts · 47%/48%41%

venue gap—

7-day move+3.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Iowa Senate, snapshot Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT.
Day	Ashley Hinson · Polymarket	Ashley Hinson · Kalshi	Josh Turek · Polymarket	Josh Turek · Kalshi
7 days ago	—	58.0%	—	41.0%
6 days ago	—	59.0%	—	42.0%
5 days ago	57.5%	58.0%	42.5%	43.0%
4 days ago	57.5%	59.0%	42.5%	42.0%
3 days ago	58.5%	60.0%	42.0%	41.0%
2 days ago	53.5%	57.0%	46.5%	44.0%
yesterday	54.5%	54.0%	45.5%	47.0%
today	54.5%	52.5%	45.5%	47.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

aiTexas governorGreg Abbott 61.67%▲8.7Hinojosa 38.00%

POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election

Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).

The Republican side holds a clear lead after losing about nine points in five days.

Two markets, one question

Texas governor

Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.6pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 60.85%, Kalshi 62.50%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 38.5%, Kalshi 37.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.6pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Money-weighted: Greg Abbott 62% · Gina Hinojosa 38%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Greg Abbott (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$858K—

Kalshi6.3M contracts · 62%/63%68%

venue gap—

7-day move-13pp

Gina Hinojosa (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$552K—

Kalshi4.0M contracts · 37%/38%33%

venue gap—

7-day move+12pp

Every sample behind the chart. Texas governor, snapshot Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT.
Day	Greg Abbott · Polymarket	Greg Abbott · Kalshi	Gina Hinojosa · Polymarket	Gina Hinojosa · Kalshi
7 days ago	—	68.0%	—	33.0%
6 days ago	—	73.0%	—	29.0%
5 days ago	73.65%	68.0%	26.5%	33.0%
4 days ago	67.30%	68.0%	31.0%	33.0%
3 days ago	65.40%	69.0%	33.5%	31.0%
2 days ago	63.75%	67.0%	36.5%	33.0%
yesterday	60.85%	64.0%	38.5%	36.0%
today	60.85%	62.5%	38.5%	37.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

yGeorgia governorKeisha Lance Bottoms 62.0%▲1.6Rick Jackson 38.0%

POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election

Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).

Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead.

Two markets, one question

Georgia governor

Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 61.5%, Kalshi 62.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 38.5%, Kalshi 37.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Money-weighted: Keisha Lance Bottoms 62% · Rick Jackson 38%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$171K—

Kalshi1.2M contracts · 62%/63%60%

venue gap—

7-day move-0.5pp

Rick Jackson (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$125K—

Kalshi1.8M contracts · 37%/38%41%

venue gap—

7-day move-0.5pp

Every sample behind the chart. Georgia governor, snapshot Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT.
Day	Keisha Lance Bottoms · Polymarket	Keisha Lance Bottoms · Kalshi	Rick Jackson · Polymarket	Rick Jackson · Kalshi
7 days ago	—	60.0%	—	41.0%
6 days ago	62.0%	59.0%	—	42.0%
5 days ago	62.5%	59.0%	39.0%	42.0%
4 days ago	62.5%	60.0%	38.0%	40.0%
3 days ago	62.5%	62.0%	38.0%	39.0%
2 days ago	61.5%	62.0%	38.5%	39.0%
yesterday	61.5%	62.0%	38.5%	39.0%
today	61.5%	62.5%	38.5%	37.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

The other 19 races22 races · 12 still in doubt · Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT · markets, not polling

Senate9 of 10

tAlaska SenateMary Peltola 69.0%▲5.331.5%Sullivan

POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election

Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).

A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead after losing about six points in five days.

Two markets, one question

Alaska Senate

Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 69.5%, Kalshi 68.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 32.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Money-weighted: Mary Peltola 69% · Dan Sullivan 31%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Mary Peltola (D)7 days ago

Polymarket$1.2M—

Kalshi310K contracts · 68%/69%75%

venue gap—

7-day move-5.0pp

Dan Sullivan (R)7 days ago

Polymarket$809K—

Kalshi411K contracts · 32%/33%27%

venue gap—

7-day move+5.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Alaska Senate, snapshot Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT.
Day	Mary Peltola · Polymarket	Mary Peltola · Kalshi	Dan Sullivan · Polymarket	Dan Sullivan · Kalshi
7 days ago	—	75.0%	—	27.0%
6 days ago	—	75.0%	—	27.0%
5 days ago	74.5%	74.0%	25.5%	27.0%
4 days ago	73.5%	74.0%	25.5%	27.0%
3 days ago	74.5%	72.0%	25.5%	27.0%
2 days ago	70.5%	74.0%	29.5%	28.0%
yesterday	69.5%	70.0%	30.5%	33.0%
today	69.5%	68.5%	30.5%	32.5%

abGeorgia SenateJon Ossoff 96.35%▲0.6Collins 3.53%

POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election

Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

Two markets, one question

Georgia Senate

Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.3pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 96.45%, Kalshi 96.25%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 3.35%, Kalshi 3.70%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.3pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Money-weighted: Jon Ossoff 96% · Mike Collins 3.7%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Jon Ossoff (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$192K—

Kalshi848K contracts · 96%/96%95.3%

venue gap—

7-day move+0.2pp

Mike Collins (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$183K—

Kalshi2.3M contracts · 3.6%/3.8%4.8%

venue gap—

7-day move-0.3pp

Every sample behind the chart. Georgia Senate, snapshot Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT.
Day	Jon Ossoff · Polymarket	Jon Ossoff · Kalshi	Mike Collins · Polymarket	Mike Collins · Kalshi
7 days ago	—	95.30%	—	4.8%
6 days ago	—	96.10%	—	4.8%
5 days ago	96.30%	95.60%	3.65%	4.9%
4 days ago	96.20%	94.60%	4.05%	6.1%
3 days ago	95.75%	94.80%	4.20%	5.4%
2 days ago	96.35%	94.80%	3.45%	5.2%
yesterday	96.45%	95.70%	3.35%	4.6%
today	96.45%	96.25%	3.35%	3.7%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

rMaine SenateTroy Jackson 65.0%Susan Collins 35.0%

POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election

Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).

Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

Two markets, one question

Maine Senate

Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 66.5%, Kalshi 63.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 33.5%, Kalshi 36.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Money-weighted: Troy Jackson 64% · Susan Collins 36%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Troy Jackson (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$1.6M—

Kalshi5.1M contracts · 63%/64%65%

venue gap—

7-day move+0.5pp

Susan Collins (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$1.4M—

Kalshi6.7M contracts · 36%/37%37%

venue gap—

7-day move-0.5pp

Every sample behind the chart. Maine Senate, snapshot Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT.
Day	Troy Jackson · Polymarket	Troy Jackson · Kalshi	Susan Collins · Polymarket	Susan Collins · Kalshi
7 days ago	—	65.0%	—	37.0%
6 days ago	—	63.0%	—	37.0%
5 days ago	66.0%	62.0%	34.0%	39.0%
4 days ago	60.0%	61.0%	40.0%	42.0%
3 days ago	62.5%	60.0%	37.5%	41.0%
2 days ago	65.0%	60.0%	35.0%	40.0%
yesterday	66.5%	62.0%	33.5%	39.0%
today	66.5%	63.5%	33.5%	36.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

vMichigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed 75.0%▲5.1Mike Rogers 23.5%

POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election

Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side lost about seven points in five days.

Two markets, one question

Michigan Senate

Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 75.5%, Kalshi 74.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 22.5%, Kalshi 24.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 75% · Mike Rogers 24%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Abdul El-Sayed (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$1.9M—

Kalshi4.9M contracts · 74%/75%69%

venue gap—

7-day move+4.0pp

Mike Rogers (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$1.6M—

Kalshi6.9M contracts · 24%/25%32%

venue gap—

7-day move-6.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Michigan Senate, snapshot Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT.
Day	Abdul El-Sayed · Polymarket	Abdul El-Sayed · Kalshi	Mike Rogers · Polymarket	Mike Rogers · Kalshi
7 days ago	—	69.0%	—	32.0%
6 days ago	—	68.0%	—	32.0%
5 days ago	71.5%	69.0%	28.5%	32.0%
4 days ago	67.5%	67.0%	32.5%	34.0%
3 days ago	69.5%	68.0%	30.5%	33.0%
2 days ago	76.5%	69.0%	23.5%	32.0%
yesterday	75.5%	70.0%	22.5%	31.0%
today	75.5%	74.5%	22.5%	24.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

acNebraska SenatePete Ricketts 68.0%▲7.1Osborn 32.5%

POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election

Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).

The Republican side holds a commanding lead after Osborn gained about seven points in five days.

Two markets, one question

Nebraska Senate

Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 68.5%, Kalshi 67.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 31.5%, Kalshi 33.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Money-weighted: Pete Ricketts 68% · Dan Osborn 33%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Pete Ricketts (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$610K—

Kalshi2.1M contracts · 67%/68%76%

venue gap—

7-day move-5.0pp

Dan Osborn (I)7 days ago

Polymarket$426K—

Kalshi1.6M contracts · 33%/34%24%

venue gap—

7-day move+5.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Nebraska Senate, snapshot Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT.
Day	Pete Ricketts · Polymarket	Pete Ricketts · Kalshi	Dan Osborn · Polymarket	Dan Osborn · Kalshi
7 days ago	—	76.0%	—	24.0%
6 days ago	—	77.0%	—	24.0%
5 days ago	73.5%	76.0%	26.5%	25.0%
4 days ago	72.5%	74.0%	27.5%	27.0%
3 days ago	72.0%	74.0%	28.0%	27.0%
2 days ago	68.5%	72.0%	31.5%	29.0%
yesterday	68.5%	71.0%	31.5%	30.0%
today	68.5%	67.5%	31.5%	33.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

adNew Hampshire SenateChris Pappas 91.72%▲0.78.47%Sununu

POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election

Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

Two markets, one question

New Hampshire Senate

Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.6pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 92.50%, Kalshi 90.95%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 8.00%, Kalshi 8.95%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.6pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Money-weighted: Chris Pappas 91% · John E. Sununu 8.8%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Chris Pappas (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$295K—

Kalshi787K contracts · 91%/91%90%

venue gap—

7-day move+1.0pp

John E. Sununu (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$241K—

Kalshi2.0M contracts · 8.7%/9.2%9.1%

venue gap—

7-day move-0.5pp

Every sample behind the chart. New Hampshire Senate, snapshot Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT.
Day	Chris Pappas · Polymarket	Chris Pappas · Kalshi	John E. Sununu · Polymarket	John E. Sununu · Kalshi
7 days ago	—	90.00%	—	9.10%
6 days ago	—	90.10%	—	10.00%
5 days ago	91.5%	90.00%	8.5%	11.00%
4 days ago	91.5%	90.00%	8.5%	11.00%
3 days ago	91.5%	90.00%	8.5%	11.00%
2 days ago	92.5%	90.00%	8.0%	11.00%
yesterday	92.5%	88.00%	8.0%	10.00%
today	92.5%	90.95%	8.0%	8.95%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

aaNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 97.07%▲0.8Whatley 2.80%

POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election

Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

Two markets, one question

North Carolina Senate

Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.2pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 97.60%, Kalshi 96.55%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 2.2%, Kalshi 3.4%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.2pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Money-weighted: Roy Cooper 97% · Michael Whatley 3.3%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Roy Cooper (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$151K—

Kalshi1.8M contracts · 97%/97%96.3%

venue gap—

7-day move+0.9pp

Michael Whatley (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$140K—

Kalshi2.9M contracts · 3.1%/3.7%4%

venue gap—

7-day move-1.2pp

Every sample behind the chart. North Carolina Senate, snapshot Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT.
Day	Roy Cooper · Polymarket	Roy Cooper · Kalshi	Michael Whatley · Polymarket	Michael Whatley · Kalshi
7 days ago	—	96.30%	—	4.0%
6 days ago	—	96.20%	—	4.0%
5 days ago	96.7%	96.60%	3.35%	3.8%
4 days ago	97.1%	96.30%	2.70%	2.8%
3 days ago	97.2%	96.70%	2.60%	3.7%
2 days ago	97.5%	96.70%	2.60%	3.7%
yesterday	97.6%	96.60%	2.20%	3.4%
today	97.6%	96.55%	2.20%	3.4%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

wOhio SenateSherrod Brown 70.0%▲0.6Jon Husted 30.0%

POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election

Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).

A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

Two markets, one question

Ohio Senate

Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 70.5%, Kalshi 69.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 29.5%, Kalshi 30.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Money-weighted: Sherrod Brown 70% · Jon Husted 30%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Sherrod Brown (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$1.2M—

Kalshi4.6M contracts · 69%/70%70%

venue gap—

7-day move+1.0pp

Jon Husted (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$855K—

Kalshi4.6M contracts · 30%/31%31%

venue gap—

7-day move-1.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Ohio Senate, snapshot Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT.
Day	Sherrod Brown · Polymarket	Sherrod Brown · Kalshi	Jon Husted · Polymarket	Jon Husted · Kalshi
7 days ago	—	70.0%	—	31.0%
6 days ago	—	69.0%	—	32.0%
5 days ago	69.5%	69.0%	30.5%	33.0%
4 days ago	68.5%	68.0%	31.5%	33.0%
3 days ago	69.5%	67.0%	30.0%	33.0%
2 days ago	70.5%	68.0%	29.5%	32.0%
yesterday	70.5%	68.0%	29.5%	34.0%
today	70.5%	69.5%	29.5%	30.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

sTexas SenateJames Talarico 69.5%▲4.2Ken Paxton 30.5%

POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election

James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about four points in five days.

Two markets, one question

Texas Senate

Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 69.5%, Kalshi 69.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 30.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Money-weighted: James Talarico 70% · Ken Paxton 31%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

James Talarico (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$3.4M—

Kalshi17M contracts · 69%/70%67%

venue gap—

7-day move+5.5pp

Ken Paxton (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$5.0M—

Kalshi36M contracts · 30%/31%34%

venue gap—

7-day move-5.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Texas Senate, snapshot Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT.
Day	James Talarico · Polymarket	James Talarico · Kalshi	Ken Paxton · Polymarket	Ken Paxton · Kalshi
7 days ago	—	67.0%	—	34.0%
6 days ago	—	64.0%	—	36.0%
5 days ago	64.0%	64.0%	35.5%	37.0%
4 days ago	64.5%	65.0%	35.5%	36.0%
3 days ago	67.5%	66.0%	32.5%	35.0%
2 days ago	69.5%	66.0%	30.5%	34.0%
yesterday	69.5%	68.0%	30.5%	32.0%
today	69.5%	69.5%	30.5%	30.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Governors10 of 12

afAlaska governor11.00%88.9%WilsonBegich 0.05%

POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election

Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).

Wilson holds a clear lead.

Two markets, one question

Alaska governor

Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 11.5%, Kalshi 10.5%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 0.05%, Kalshi 0.05%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 3–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.

Money-weighted: Bernadette Wilson 11% · Tom Begich 0.05%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Bernadette Wilson (R)7 days ago

Polymarket$260K—

Kalshi98.7K contracts · 10%/11%9.6%

venue gap—

7-day move-3.0pp

Tom Begich (D)7 days ago

Polymarket$174K—

Kalshi272K contracts · 0%/0.1%—

venue gap—

7-day move0.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Alaska governor, snapshot Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT.
Day	Bernadette Wilson · Polymarket	Bernadette Wilson · Kalshi	Tom Begich · Polymarket	Tom Begich · Kalshi
7 days ago	—	9.6%	—	—
6 days ago	—	15.0%	—	—
5 days ago	14.5%	13.0%	0.05%	—
4 days ago	11.0%	12.0%	0.05%	—
3 days ago	11.0%	13.0%	0.05%	—
2 days ago	11.5%	13.0%	0.05%	0.10%
yesterday	11.5%	12.0%	0.05%	0.10%
today	11.5%	10.5%	0.05%	0.05%

ahArizona governorKatie Hobbs 91.78%▲0.8Biggs 8.22%

POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election

Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

Two markets, one question

Arizona governor

Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.4pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 92.50%, Kalshi 91.05%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 7.00%, Kalshi 9.45%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.4pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Money-weighted: Katie Hobbs 91% · Andy Biggs 9.0%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Katie Hobbs (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$236K—

Kalshi570K contracts · 91%/91%91.9%

venue gap—

7-day move+2.5pp

Andy Biggs (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$216K—

Kalshi851K contracts · 9.4%/9.5%9%

venue gap—

7-day move-1.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Arizona governor, snapshot Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT.
Day	Katie Hobbs · Polymarket	Katie Hobbs · Kalshi	Andy Biggs · Polymarket	Andy Biggs · Kalshi
7 days ago	—	91.90%	—	9.00%
6 days ago	—	90.00%	—	11.00%
5 days ago	90.0%	90.00%	8.0%	11.00%
4 days ago	91.5%	90.00%	9.5%	10.00%
3 days ago	92.0%	89.00%	8.5%	12.00%
2 days ago	92.5%	90.00%	7.0%	10.00%
yesterday	92.5%	90.00%	7.0%	11.00%
today	92.5%	91.05%	7.0%	9.45%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

alFlorida governorByron Donalds 70.0%▲11.829.5%Jolly

POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election

Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).

Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead after the Democratic side gained about twelve points in six days.

Two markets, one question

Florida governor

Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 70.5%, Kalshi 69.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 28.5%, Kalshi 30.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Money-weighted: Byron Donalds 70% · David Jolly 30%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Byron Donalds (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$381K—

Kalshi3.6M contracts · 69%/70%81%

venue gap—

7-day move-12pp

David Jolly (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$319K—

Kalshi3.0M contracts · 30%/31%18%

venue gap—

7-day move+11pp

Every sample behind the chart. Florida governor, snapshot Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT.
Day	Byron Donalds · Polymarket	Byron Donalds · Kalshi	David Jolly · Polymarket	David Jolly · Kalshi
7 days ago	—	81.0%	—	18.0%
6 days ago	—	83.0%	17.5%	20.0%
5 days ago	82.5%	83.0%	18.5%	19.0%
4 days ago	81.5%	82.0%	18.5%	20.0%
3 days ago	79.5%	79.0%	21.0%	22.0%
2 days ago	69.0%	75.0%	29.5%	26.0%
yesterday	70.5%	72.0%	28.5%	29.0%
today	70.5%	69.5%	28.5%	30.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

aeIowa governorRob Sand 85.5%14.5%Lahn

POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election

Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

Two markets, one question

Iowa governor

Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 86.5%, Kalshi 84.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 13.5%, Kalshi 15.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Money-weighted: Rob Sand 85% · Zach Lahn 15%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Rob Sand (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$207K—

Kalshi958K contracts · 84%/85%87%

venue gap—

7-day move-1.0pp

Zach Lahn (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$182K—

Kalshi2.1M contracts · 15%/16%14%

venue gap—

7-day move+1.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Iowa governor, snapshot Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT.
Day	Rob Sand · Polymarket	Rob Sand · Kalshi	Zach Lahn · Polymarket	Zach Lahn · Kalshi
7 days ago	—	87.0%	—	14.0%
6 days ago	—	87.0%	—	15.0%
5 days ago	87.5%	87.0%	12.5%	15.0%
4 days ago	85.5%	84.0%	13.5%	17.0%
3 days ago	84.5%	83.0%	15.5%	16.0%
2 days ago	85.5%	84.0%	14.5%	17.0%
yesterday	86.5%	83.0%	13.5%	17.0%
today	86.5%	84.5%	13.5%	15.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

agMichigan governorJocelyn Benson 93.67%▲0.5James 6.43%

POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election

Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

Two markets, one question

Michigan governor

Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.1pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 94.00%, Kalshi 93.35%; John James (R): Polymarket 5.90%, Kalshi 6.95%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.1pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Money-weighted: Jocelyn Benson 94% · John James 6.5%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Jocelyn Benson (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$212K—

Kalshi133K contracts · 93%/94%92.7%

venue gap—

7-day move+0.5pp

John James (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$273K—

Kalshi314K contracts · 6.6%/7.3%6.8%

venue gap—

7-day move-0.7pp

Every sample behind the chart. Michigan governor, snapshot Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT.
Day	Jocelyn Benson · Polymarket	Jocelyn Benson · Kalshi	John James · Polymarket	John James · Kalshi
7 days ago	—	92.70%	—	6.80%
6 days ago	—	93.20%	—	7.60%
5 days ago	93.50%	93.20%	6.60%	8.60%
4 days ago	93.75%	91.20%	6.25%	9.30%
3 days ago	92.70%	92.30%	7.30%	7.90%
2 days ago	93.95%	92.40%	6.15%	8.00%
yesterday	94.00%	93.10%	5.90%	7.60%
today	94.00%	93.35%	5.90%	6.95%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

zNevada governorAaron Ford 78.5%▲11.7Lombardo 21.5%

POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election

Aaron Ford (D) faces Joe Lombardo (R).

Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about twelve points in five days.

Two markets, one question

Nevada governor

Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Nevada governor. Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 79.5%, Kalshi 77.5%; Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 20.5%, Kalshi 22.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Money-weighted: Aaron Ford 78% · Joe Lombardo 22%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Aaron Ford (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$581K—

Kalshi1.5M contracts · 77%/78%66%

venue gap—

7-day move+12pp

Joe Lombardo (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$402K—

Kalshi1.2M contracts · 22%/23%34%

venue gap—

7-day move-12pp

Every sample behind the chart. Nevada governor, snapshot Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT.
Day	Aaron Ford · Polymarket	Aaron Ford · Kalshi	Joe Lombardo · Polymarket	Joe Lombardo · Kalshi
7 days ago	—	66.0%	—	34.0%
6 days ago	—	65.0%	—	34.0%
5 days ago	67.5%	67.0%	32.5%	33.0%
4 days ago	67.5%	67.0%	30.5%	32.0%
3 days ago	78.5%	70.0%	21.5%	31.0%
2 days ago	79.5%	77.0%	20.5%	24.0%
yesterday	79.5%	78.0%	20.5%	23.0%
today	79.5%	77.5%	20.5%	22.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

ajNew York governorKathy Hochul 96.43%▲1.1Blakeman 3.63%

POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election

Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

Two markets, one question

New York governor

Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 97.15%, Kalshi 95.70%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 2.95%, Kalshi 4.30%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Money-weighted: Kathy Hochul 96% · Bruce Blakeman 4.2%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Kathy Hochul (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$165K—

Kalshi1.3M contracts · 96%/96%95.2%

venue gap—

7-day move+1.3pp

Bruce Blakeman (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$226K—

Kalshi4.6M contracts · 4.2%/4.4%5.3%

venue gap—

7-day move-1.1pp

Every sample behind the chart. New York governor, snapshot Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT.
Day	Kathy Hochul · Polymarket	Kathy Hochul · Kalshi	Bruce Blakeman · Polymarket	Bruce Blakeman · Kalshi
7 days ago	—	95.2%	—	5.3%
6 days ago	—	95.1%	—	5.3%
5 days ago	95.90%	95.3%	4.05%	5.0%
4 days ago	95.30%	94.0%	4.70%	6.2%
3 days ago	95.50%	93.9%	4.55%	5.9%
2 days ago	97.15%	94.7%	2.55%	4.4%
yesterday	97.15%	95.8%	2.95%	4.2%
today	97.15%	95.7%	2.95%	4.3%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

qOhio governorAmy Acton 81.0%▲1.319.0%Ramaswamy

POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election

Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).

Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

Two markets, one question

Ohio governor

Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 81.5%, Kalshi 80.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 18.5%, Kalshi 19.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Money-weighted: Amy Acton 81% · Vivek Ramaswamy 19%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Amy Acton (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$608K—

Kalshi2.2M contracts · 80%/81%83%

venue gap—

7-day move-1.0pp

Vivek Ramaswamy (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$677K—

Kalshi4.2M contracts · 19%/20%18%

venue gap—

7-day move+1.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Ohio governor, snapshot Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT.
Day	Amy Acton · Polymarket	Amy Acton · Kalshi	Vivek Ramaswamy · Polymarket	Vivek Ramaswamy · Kalshi
7 days ago	—	83.0%	—	18.0%
6 days ago	—	82.0%	—	19.0%
5 days ago	82.5%	81.0%	17.5%	20.0%
4 days ago	82.5%	81.0%	17.0%	20.0%
3 days ago	79.0%	83.0%	21.0%	19.0%
2 days ago	83.0%	77.0%	17.5%	24.0%
yesterday	81.5%	80.0%	18.5%	21.0%
today	81.5%	80.5%	18.5%	19.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

akPennsylvania governorJosh Shapiro 97.97%▲0.4Garrity 2.17%

POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election

Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

Two markets, one question

Pennsylvania governor

Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.1pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 98.50%, Kalshi 97.45%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 1.60%, Kalshi 2.75%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.1pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Money-weighted: Josh Shapiro 97% · Stacy Garrity 2.7%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Josh Shapiro (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$13.6K—

Kalshi299K contracts · 97%/98%97.8%

venue gap—

7-day move+0.9pp

Stacy Garrity (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$53.7K—

Kalshi762K contracts · 2.6%/2.9%2.9%

venue gap—

7-day move-0.7pp

Every sample behind the chart. Pennsylvania governor, snapshot Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT.
Day	Josh Shapiro · Polymarket	Josh Shapiro · Kalshi	Stacy Garrity · Polymarket	Stacy Garrity · Kalshi
7 days ago	—	97.80%	—	2.90%
6 days ago	—	97.50%	—	2.50%
5 days ago	97.55%	97.30%	2.30%	3.00%
4 days ago	97.85%	97.40%	2.20%	3.00%
3 days ago	98.05%	97.60%	2.25%	3.00%
2 days ago	98.50%	97.20%	1.60%	3.40%
yesterday	98.50%	97.50%	1.60%	2.60%
today	98.50%	97.45%	1.60%	2.75%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

xWisconsin governorDavid Crowley 84.5%▲4.515.3%Tiffany

POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election

David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).

An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

Two markets, one question

Wisconsin governor

Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.5pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 85.5%, Kalshi 83.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 14.0%, Kalshi 16.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Money-weighted: David Crowley 84% · Tom Tiffany 16%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

David Crowley (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$467K—

Kalshi622K contracts · 83%/84%81%

venue gap—

7-day move+5.0pp

Tom Tiffany (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$463K—

Kalshi1.1M contracts · 16%/17%21%

venue gap—

7-day move-5.5pp

Every sample behind the chart. Wisconsin governor, snapshot Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT.
Day	David Crowley · Polymarket	David Crowley · Kalshi	Tom Tiffany · Polymarket	Tom Tiffany · Kalshi
7 days ago	—	81.0%	—	21.0%
6 days ago	—	81.0%	—	21.0%
5 days ago	80.5%	80.0%	19.5%	21.0%
4 days ago	80.5%	78.0%	19.5%	23.0%
3 days ago	84.5%	79.0%	20.0%	22.0%
2 days ago	85.5%	79.0%	14.5%	22.0%
yesterday	85.5%	84.0%	14.5%	16.0%
today	85.5%	83.5%	14.0%	16.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Oct 29, 10:08 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.

Not news news1 story

STATELINE

USCIS approved about 55,000 citizenship applications from April to June, down from more than 230,000 a year earlier

Stateline estimates that at last year's approval pace, about 380,000 more immigrants could have become citizens and eligible voters before the Nov. 3 midterms.

The approvals. U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS, the agency that rules on citizenship applications) approved about 55,000 requests from April to June 2026. In the same three months of 2025 it approved more than 230,000. Approvals began to fall late last year, Stateline reports, when USCIS made the process longer. A USCIS spokesman, Zach Kahler, listed the changes. They include checks of social media for "anti-American activities," a restored civics test and stricter English rules. "Naturalization is a privilege, not a right," he said.

Stateline's estimate. Stateline built its 380,000 figure by assuming the prior year's approval pace would have held over roughly the past year. It is an estimate of approvals that did not happen before the Nov. 3 midterms, not a count of people removed from voter rolls. ([TS]Stateline's own yearly totals, 871,000 vs. 481,000, work out to 390,000, not 380,000.)

How April–June approvals fell at offices serving three swing statesAtlanta office: 1,059 approvals vs. 5,023 a year earlier, while pending cases rose to 17,300 from 13,7613 details

Atlanta office: 1,059 approvals vs. 5,023 a year earlier, while pending cases rose to 17,300 from 13,761
Raleigh and Charlotte offices combined: 1,261 approvals vs. 4,656 a year earlier
Detroit office: 1,107 approvals vs. 4,203 a year earlier

Oct 302026

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Stateline estimates that at last year's approval pace, about 380,000 more immigrants could have become citizens and eligible voters before the Nov. 3 midterms.

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