Political GuyentistTuesday, August 25, 2026
31 stories·4 news3 briefs24 elections·1 contested·15 cut

U.S. sanctions nearly 60 Iranian targets and threatens countries that keep trading with Tehran

Treasury’s “Operation Economic Outcast,” announced Monday, Aug. 24, puts China and other Iranian trading partners at risk of U.S. penalties—but sets no deadline.

Iran’s rial hit a record low on Monday, Aug. 24, raising import costs before this package takes full effect. PBS NewsHour reports that China buys 90% of Iran’s crude exports, so enforcing the threat against Chinese buyers—not adding Iranian names to a U.S. list—will determine Tehran’s oil-revenue losses.

ContextIran’s rial hit a record low on Monday, Aug. 24, raising import costs before this package takes full effect. [PBS NewsHour](https://pbs.org/newshour/show/a-look-at-the-new-u-s-sanctions-on-iran-and-threats-against-its-trading-partners) reports that China buys 90% of Iran’s crude exports, so enforcing the threat against Chinese buyers—not adding Iranian names to a U.S. list—will determine Tehran’s oil-revenue losses.

NBC NEWS12 sources

Trump imposed 50% tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian goods and threatened the same rate on autos and steel

Canada will retaliate dollar for dollar on Sept. 8 after U.S. trade talks collapsed.

The United States and Canada traded $762.10 billion in goods in 2024, according to the U.S. Census Bureau Foreign Trade Division. The newly targeted $20 billion equals about 2.6% of that annual trade. Of U.S. imports from Canada, 51.6% were industrial supplies and materials, including energy; 13.9% were automotive vehicles, parts and engines; and 13.8% were capital goods other than automotive products. Those shares describe the broader Canadian import mix, not necessarily the targeted $20 billion basket; Trump’s threatened Jan. 1 escalation would hit autos, auto parts and steel directly (U.S. Census Bureau, BEA end-use estimates, USAFacts).

ContextThe United States and Canada traded $762.10 billion in goods in 2024, according to the U.S. Census Bureau Foreign Trade Division. The newly targeted $20 billion equals about 2.6% of that annual trade. Of U.S. imports from Canada, 51.6% were industrial supplies and materials, including energy; 13.9% were automotive vehicles, parts and engines; and 13.8% were capital goods other than automotive products. Those shares describe the broader Canadian import mix, not necessarily the targeted $20 billion basket; Trump’s threatened Jan. 1 escalation would hit autos, auto parts and steel directly (U.S. Census Bureau, BEA end-use estimates, USAFacts).

AP12 sources

3uscontestedImmigration enforcement

Trump proposes a $103,265 fee for each new H-1B skilled-worker visa

The employer charge would rise from $2,000-$5,000 today to at least 20 times that amount.

Federal law provides 65,000 general H-1B visas each year, plus 20,000 for workers with advanced degrees from U.S. schools. That makes 85,000 slots under the annual limits. Charging $103,265 for each would produce as much as $8.8 billion, compared with $170 million to $425 million at the current $2,000-$5,000 fee.

ContextFederal law provides 65,000 general H-1B visas each year, plus 20,000 for workers with advanced degrees from U.S. schools. That makes 85,000 slots under the annual limits. Charging $103,265 for each would produce as much as $8.8 billion, compared with $170 million to $425 million at the current $2,000-$5,000 fee.

THE NEW YORK TIMES10 sources

4us

Hawk Fire drives 42,000 people from homes near Reno

Another 45,000 people were told to prepare to leave as the 15,000-acre fire reached 27% containment Monday, Aug. 24.

At 15,000 acres, the Hawk Fire was more than 2.5 times the final 5,824-acre footprint of the 2024 Davis Fire south of Reno, according to the Truckee Meadows Fire Protection District. Evacuation orders and warnings together covered about 87,000 people. Investigators classified the fire as human-caused, but the supplied reports identify no specific cause.

ContextAt 15,000 acres, the Hawk Fire was more than 2.5 times the final 5,824-acre footprint of the 2024 Davis Fire south of Reno, according to the [Truckee Meadows Fire Protection District](https://tmfpd.us/2024/09/18/update-final-on-davis-fire-for-september-18-2024/). Evacuation orders and warnings together covered about 87,000 people. Investigators classified the fire as human-caused, but the supplied reports identify no specific cause.

CBS NEWS7 sources

Tuesday · The daily brief

Aug 252026

4 leads27 briefs7 min

Executive summary4 stories

News news4

  1. U.S. sanctions nearly 60 Iranian targets and threatens countries that keep trading with TehranTreasury’s “Operation Economic Outcast,” announced Monday, Aug. 24, puts China and other Iranian trading partners at risk of U.S. penalties—but sets no deadline.
  2. Trump imposed 50% tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian goods and threatened the same rate on autos and steelCanada will retaliate dollar for dollar on Sept. 8 after U.S. trade talks collapsed.
  3. Trump proposes a $103,265 fee for each new H-1B skilled-worker visaThe employer charge would rise from $2,000-$5,000 today to at least 20 times that amount.
  4. Hawk Fire drives 42,000 people from homes near RenoAnother 45,000 people were told to prepare to leave as the 15,000-acre fire reached 27% containment Monday, Aug. 24.

News news4 stories

Ongoing1 earlier update

This story has run 2 times over 5 days, starting Aug 20.

  1. UAE cuts off all trade with Iran, closing the gateway that handles a third of Iranian imports
  2. U.S. sanctions nearly 60 Iranian targets and threatens countries that keep trading with Tehran — this issue

1.) NBC NEWS: U.S. sanctions nearly 60 Iranian targets and threatens countries that keep trading with Tehran

Treasury’s “Operation Economic Outcast,” announced Monday, Aug. 24, puts China and other Iranian trading partners at risk of U.S. penalties—but sets no deadline.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced sanctions against nearly 60 entities, individuals and vessels tied to Iran. The administration also expanded the parts of Iran’s economy that can trigger sanctions to include digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping. Bessent called the campaign an “economic onslaught against Iran’s financial connections around the globe.” But he gave no timeline for secondary sanctions—U.S. penalties on foreign companies or countries that trade with a sanctioned target—saying Washington would try “quiet diplomacy” first.

Ongoing1 earlier update

This story has run 2 times over 5 days, starting Aug 20.

  1. Trump pauses 50% Canada tariff two hours before it hits, buying three days
  2. Trump imposed 50% tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian goods and threatened the same rate on autos and steel — this issue

2.) AP: Trump imposed 50% tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian goods and threatened the same rate on autos and steel

Canada will answer with matching tariffs on $20 billion of U.S. goods on Sept. 8 after trade talks collapsed.

A 50% U.S. tariff on $20 billion of Canadian goods took effect Saturday, Aug. 22. Canada plans matching tariffs on $20 billion of U.S. goods beginning Sept. 8. The targeted Canadian goods equal about 2.6% of the $762.10 billion the countries traded in 2024. Negotiations had collapsed Friday, Aug. 21. Donald Trump then threatened to apply the same tariff rate to Canadian cars, trucks, auto parts and steel starting Jan. 1, 2027. Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada would not accept a negotiating position that treated it as “a subsidiary of the United States.” Ontario Premier Doug Ford warned that Canada could restrict electricity and critical-mineral exports to the United States if the dispute deepens.

Currently showing U.S. goods trade with Canada
U.S. goods trade with Canada
U.S. goods trade with Canada Annual bilateral goods trade and Canadian import mix (Census basis) $650B $700B $750B $800B $850B $665B $762B 2021 2022 2024 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, BEA end-use estimates, USAFacts

3.) THE NEW YORK TIMES: Trump proposes a $103,265 fee for each new H-1B skilled-worker visa

The employer charge would rise from $2,000-$5,000 today to at least 20 times that amount.

The Department of Homeland Security proposed the rule on Monday, Aug. 24, 2026. Employers would pay $103,265 for each H-1B skilled-worker visa application covered by the annual limits, up from $2,000-$5,000 today. The increase is $98,265-$101,265 per application. Revenue would support the legal immigration system, including $1 billion for Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Business and immigration advocates said the charge would hurt U.S. employers seeking skilled foreign workers in health care, drug development and engineering.

Currently showing Across 85,000 slots, the fee could approach $8.8 billion
Across 85,000 slots, the fee could approach $8.8 billion
Across 85,000 slots, the fee could approach 8.8 billion dollarsA broken-axis dot plot compares 170 million to 425 million dollars under current fees with a theoretical maximum of 8.778 billion dollars under the proposed fee.Across 85,000 slots, the fee could approach $8.8 billionMaximum annual revenue if every cap-subject slot paysCurrent feesProposed fee$425M$8.78B maximum85,000 slots$0$8B$8.8Baxis breakMaximum annual fee revenue (USD)Theoretical maximum; actual collections could be lower.

Red take

Across the 85,000 general and advanced-degree slots under the annual limits, raising the employer charge from $2,000-$5,000 to $103,265 would force firms to reserve visas for hires whose value clearly exceeds the cost and make beneficiaries fund the system. The fee will exclude some worthy smaller employers, so targeted exemptions for genuine health and research shortages are necessary to keep the price test from becoming a balance-sheet test.

Blue take

A $103,265 fee across the 85,000 general and advanced-degree slots under the annual limits would ration skilled-worker access by employer wealth, not by whether hospitals, research firms or engineering companies face genuine shortages. Deterring low-value or wage-cutting applications is legitimate, but a charge implying as much as $8.8 billion before exemptions is too blunt when narrower selection rules could protect domestic workers without pricing out smaller employers.

4.) CBS NEWS: Hawk Fire drives 42,000 people from homes near Reno

Another 45,000 people were told to prepare to leave as the 15,000-acre fire reached 27% containment Monday, Aug. 24.

The human-caused Hawk Fire began northwest of Reno on Saturday, Aug. 22. By Monday, Aug. 24, it had burned 15,000 acres, or about 25 square miles, and was 27% contained. Seven people were injured, including three first responders. One resident said two cars were packed in case the wind changed: “I'm still scared to death. It's like you don't know if the winds are going to shift and it's going to get worse.”

Quick bites27

  1. ICE detained deployed Navy sailor’s father after roughly 20 years in US

    ICE arrested Luis Manuel Aviles Roa during a traffic stop in Key West while his son serves aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln on a nine-month Middle East deployment. DHS says the Nicaraguan immigrant, who has lived in the US for roughly 20 years, entered illegally and will remain detained during removal proceedings.

    Ongoing1

    This story has run 2 times over 8 days, starting Aug 17.

    1. Centcom says the Lincoln, 260 days at sea, has among the Navy's fewest mental health cases
    2. ICE detained deployed Navy sailor’s father after roughly 20 years in US — this issue
  2. ICE arrested 1,328 near Washington; about 70% had no convictions or pending charges

    ICE arrested 1,328 undocumented immigrants during a 14-day operation in Virginia and Maryland. Nearly 400 had criminal convictions or pending charges, while about 70% of the 1,328 had neither.

    Currently showing Who ICE arrested in the Washington-area operation
    Who ICE arrested in the Washington-area operation
    Who ICE arrested in the Washington-area operationA 100 percent stacked bar showing about 70 percent, roughly 930 people, had no convictions or pending charges, while about 30 percent, nearly 400 people, had convictions or pending charges.Who ICE arrested in the Washington-area operationReported composition of 1,328 arrests during a 14-day operation in Virginia and Maryland1,328 total arrestsNo convictions or pending chargesAbout 70% · roughly 930Convictions orpending chargesAbout 30%nearly 4000%50%100%Share of arrestsRounded figures may not sum exactly. Categories describe reported convictions or pending charges only.Source: Fox News report and cited posts.
  3. House Democrats say Iran war has passed 150 days and $37 billion

    Nearly all Democrats on the Senate Armed Services Committee requested a hearing on extended deployments and troop strain. In an Aug. 21 letter reported by The Hill, nearly 50 House Democrats asked Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to account for a war they said had lasted more than 150 days and cost more than $37 billion.

Elections24 races

Congressional control

Who ends up holding each chamber

Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
7-day replay

U.S. House: chance of Democratic control of the House, Polymarket 89%, Kalshi 86%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 50%, Kalshi 47%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

U.S. HouseDemocratic control7 days ago · Democrats favoured
88%85%chance of Democratic control of the House · 2.5pp apart
U.S. House: chance of Democratic control of the House. 7 days ago, Polymarket 88% and Kalshi 85%. Today it stands at Polymarket 89% and Kalshi 86%.
U.S. SenateDemocrats take it7 days ago · Republicans favoured
51%49%chance Democrats take it · 1.5pp apart
U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. 7 days ago, Polymarket 51% and Kalshi 49%. Today it stands at Polymarket 50% and Kalshi 47%.
7 days ago
How to read thisthe contract, the key, and the week panel

Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take it. This desk has not established who is defending the House, so that bar stays in the market’s own words and claims nothing about who would be losing it. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.

  • two venues, priced separately
  • shaded = how far apart they are
  • 50% — control flips here
  • the last 7 days, on its own scale
  • Polymarket, solid
  • Kalshi, dashed

Both lines in a week panel are the same contract, priced by two venues — not one line per party. Its colour is whose chance the bar is measuring, which is why a panel can be blue while the verdict beside it reads Republicans favoured.

3 of 24 races. Open one, or all of them — every race is on the page either way.

  • iAlaska SenateMary Peltola 61.8%Dan Sullivan 39.8%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election

    Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).

    A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a clear lead after gaining about six points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska Senate

    Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 60.5%, Kalshi 63.0%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 39.0%, Kalshi 40.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • qGeorgia SenateJon Ossoff 92.58%Collins 7.55%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election

    Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia Senate

    Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.8pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 93.50%, Kalshi 91.65%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 6.95%, Kalshi 8.15%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.8pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • jIowa SenateAshley Hinson 59.0%Josh Turek 42.0%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election

    Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).

    An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa Senate

    Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 60.5%, Kalshi 57.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 40.5%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

The other 21 races24 consequential races · Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT · markets, not polling

Senate7 of 10

  • gMaine SenateTroy Jackson 69.5%Susan Collins 31.5%

    POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election

    Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).

    Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Maine Senate

    Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 70.5%, Kalshi 68.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 32.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • kMichigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed 60.3%Mike Rogers 40.3%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election

    Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).

    The Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan Senate

    Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 61.0%, Kalshi 59.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 39.0%, Kalshi 41.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • rNebraska SenatePete Ricketts 70.0%Dan Osborn 29.5%

    POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election

    Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Nebraska Senate

    Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 69.5%, Kalshi 70.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 28.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • sNew Hampshire SenateChris Pappas 89.8%10.8%Sununu

    POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election

    Chris Pappas (D) leads the unresolved Democratic primary; John E. Sununu (R) leads the unresolved Republican primary.

    Neither nomination is official yet, though the market already treats both as decided — the Democratic side gained about three points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    New Hampshire Senate

    Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 89.5%, Kalshi 90.0%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 10.0%, Kalshi 11.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • pNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 92.13%Whatley 8.43%

    POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election

    Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    North Carolina Senate

    Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.8pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 92.50%, Kalshi 91.75%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 8.50%, Kalshi 8.35%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.8pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • lOhio SenateSherrod Brown 53.0%Jon Husted 47.5%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election

    Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).

    A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio Senate

    Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 54.5%, Kalshi 51.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 46.5%, Kalshi 48.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • hTexas SenateKen Paxton 50.5%James Talarico 49.5%

    POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election

    Ken Paxton (R) faces James Talarico (D).

    A dead heat — the two sides are priced within a point of each other.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas Senate

    Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas Senate. Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 49.5%, Kalshi 51.5%; James Talarico (D): Polymarket 49.5%, Kalshi 49.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Governors12

  • uAlaska governorWilson 35.3%Begich 19.0%45.7%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election

    Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).

    Wilson holds a clear lead, but no race here has moved more this week: Begich is down about eighteen points.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska governor

    Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 35.5%, Kalshi 35.0%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 18.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • wArizona governorKatie Hobbs 87.5%12.3%Biggs

    POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election

    Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Arizona governor

    Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 87.5%, Kalshi 87.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 11.0%, Kalshi 13.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aaFlorida governorByron Donalds 79.5%21.5%Jolly

    POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election

    Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).

    Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.

    Two markets, one question

    Florida governor

    Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 78.5%, Kalshi 80.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 22.5%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • nGeorgia governorKeisha Lance Bottoms 59.3%Rick Jackson 40.8%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election

    Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).

    Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia governor

    Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 60.0%, Kalshi 58.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 40.5%, Kalshi 41.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • tIowa governorRob Sand 75.3%Lahn 25.0%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election

    Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa governor

    Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 74.0%, Kalshi 76.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 26.5%, Kalshi 23.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • vMichigan governorJocelyn Benson 89.0%11.3%James

    POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election

    Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan governor

    Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 90%, Kalshi 88%; John James (R): Polymarket 10.5%, Kalshi 12.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • oNevada governorJoe Lombardo 59.0%Aaron Ford 41.3%

    POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election

    Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).

    Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Republican side holds a clear lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.

    Two markets, one question

    Nevada governor

    Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 59.5%, Kalshi 58.5%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 41.0%, Kalshi 41.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • yNew York governorKathy Hochul 94.50%Blakeman 5.17%

    POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election

    Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    New York governor

    Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.3pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 94.5%, Kalshi 94.5%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 4.50%, Kalshi 5.85%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.3pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • fOhio governorAmy Acton 55.0%Vivek Ramaswamy 46.5%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election

    Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).

    Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead after gaining about five points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio governor

    Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 53.5%, Kalshi 56.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 47.5%, Kalshi 45.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • zPennsylvania governorJosh Shapiro 95.83%Garrity 4.47%

    POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election

    Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Pennsylvania governor

    Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.7pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 95.50%, Kalshi 96.15%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 4.50%, Kalshi 4.45%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.7pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • xTexas governorGreg Abbott 87.0%12.5%Hinojosa

    POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election

    Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas governor

    Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 86.5%, Kalshi 87.5%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 12.5%, Kalshi 12.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • mWisconsin governorDavid Crowley 79.5%Tiffany 20.5%

    POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election

    David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).

    An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Wisconsin governor

    Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 80.5%, Kalshi 78.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 21.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Other races2

  • dMAGA Inc. spends $827,711 to boost Darline Graham before runoff

    POLITICO: MAGA Inc. spends $827,711 to boost Darline Graham before runoff

    Donald Trump’s super PAC spent $827,711.11 on calls and texts for Darline Graham (St Sen-R South Carolina) before Tuesday’s GOP Senate runoff against Ralph Norman (Rep-R South Carolina). It was the group’s largest expenditure of the year and its first significant independent spend of the cycle. Graham led the Aug. 11 primary with 33% to Norman’s 25%, but neither won a majority.

  • eCalifornia Supreme Court heard challenge to Sheriff Chad Bianco’s seizure of 650,000 ballots

    LOS ANGELES TIMES: California Supreme Court heard challenge to Sheriff Chad Bianco’s seizure of 650,000 ballots

    The California Supreme Court heard arguments over whether Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco must return roughly 650,000 ballots and 1,000 boxes seized while he was running for governor. Bianco says he was investigating fraud after a measure passed by about 80,000 votes; the state says he had no authority to take the ballots.

Prices captured Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.