Political Guyentist
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Ongoing8 earlier updates

This story has run 9 times over 37 days, starting Jul 23.

  1. Trump Threatens to Bomb Iranian Bridges and Power Plants for Every Ship Hit in Strait of Hormuz
  2. Iran fires multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. base in Jordan; all are intercepted
  3. Iran denies Trump’s claim that new U.S. talks would start Monday
  4. Cargo ship is struck in the Strait of Hormuz
  5. Vance says the Iran talks are moving, then calls the war only half over
  6. Iran won't reopen Hormuz until the US unfreezes its assets and lifts the blockade
  7. Trump threatens to bomb Oman, the U.S. ally brokering the deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
  8. Trump declares an "economic D-Day" on Iran as Hormuz traffic runs 85% below normal
  9. [UPDATE] U.S. goes nearly a month without large Iran strikes as Trump shifts back to sanctions; Hormuz remains closed — this issue

[UPDATE] U.S. goes nearly a month without large Iran strikes as Trump shifts back to sanctions; Hormuz remains closed

Political Guyentist · August 29, 20261 min read

ABC NEWS

Trump predicted four to five weeks of war; six months later, the administration has set no deadline for ending the economic campaign.
Currently showing Trump predicted four to five weeks; the war has lasted about 26 weeks and counting.
Trump predicted four to five weeks; the war has lasted about 26 weeks and counting.
The war has lasted more than five times Trump’s forecastHorizontal bars compare Trump’s four-to-five-week forecast with approximately 26 weeks elapsed and ongoing.The war has lasted more than five times Trump’s forecastTrump predicted 4–5 weeks; six months later, the conflict is still ongoing.Trump forecast4–5 weeksElapsed≈26 weeksongoing≈21 weeks longer · ≈5.2× the upper forecast051015202530Duration in weeksSix months converted at 52 weeks ÷ 12 months; elapsed figures are approximate.

What we’re less sure of1 of 6 claims

RELATED 1[UPDATE] Iran expands Hormuz mediation from Oman to Pakistan and Qatar

Iran’s foreign minister met Qatar’s prime minister after separate mediation involving Oman and Pakistan, broadening the negotiating channel beyond earlier Omani talks. Tehran still conditions reopening on U.S. concessions.

RELATED 2Treasury moves to cut Banque Misr’s UAE branches off from the U.S. financial system

Treasury says the Egyptian bank’s Emirati branches processed transactions that helped Iran evade sanctions. The proposed rule has a 30-day comment period before it can take effect.