Political GuyentistSaturday, August 29, 2026
34 stories·3 news3 not news6 briefs22 elections·0 contested·0 cut

[UPDATE] U.S. goes nearly a month without large Iran strikes as Trump shifts back to sanctions; Hormuz remains closed

The administration says its military goals are complete but is continuing an open-ended economic campaign against Tehran.

The U.S. and Israel began striking Iran on Feb. 28. The war spread to Gulf states, killed 18 U.S. service members, wounded more than 750 and shut the Strait of Hormuz to normal commercial traffic. The U.S. has not launched a large-scale attack in nearly a month; the administration is instead threatening severe sanctions on countries that trade with Iran.

ContextYesterday’s issue covered the war’s domestic and material costs: an AP-NORC survey of 1,165 adults conducted July 23–27 found 64% said it was not worth fighting; the conflict had cost $35.7 billion—more than half the Pentagon’s $67 billion emergency request—and Iran and Oman had proposed a Hormuz framework that would exclude warships. Today’s new development is the month-long pause in large U.S. attacks and Trump’s turn back to economic pressure, while the strait remains closed and negotiations remain stalled.

ABC NEWS13 sources

[UPDATE] Judge blocks USPS from rejecting noncompliant mail ballots for 14 days; DOJ appeals

The Justice Department appealed to the 1st Circuit as states prepare to send the first midterm ballots next week.

The final rule would let USPS reject outbound ballot mailings unless states supplied voter lists and used prescribed envelope data and formatting. The Boston judge found no evidence of mail-ballot fraud, said the rule would likely disenfranchise voters and set a Sept. 3 hearing. The Justice Department appealed to the 1st Circuit.

ContextYesterday, the same judge lifted an earlier nationwide injunction after the Supreme Court called that challenge premature because USPS had not finalized the rule. Twenty-four states and D.C. immediately filed a new suit against the final version; this 14-day order is the first ruling in that case.

THE GUARDIAN12 sources

3us

Judge permanently blocks Pentagon’s Anthropic blacklist as unconstitutional

The Defense Department cannot enforce the supply-chain-risk designation while the administration prepares an appeal.

In a 59-page ruling, Judge Rita Lin found that the administration violated Anthropic’s First and Fifth Amendment rights, acted arbitrarily and lacked statutory authority for the designation.

ContextThe Pentagon labeled Anthropic a supply-chain risk and ordered agencies to stop using Claude after the company refused to permit domestic mass surveillance or fully autonomous weapons while the Pentagon demanded access for all lawful purposes. The ruling still allows the government to stop using Anthropic through other lawful means.

REASON10 sources

4not newsus

Trump orders a plan for a NASA-led U.S. Space Academy; commission has 120 days to design it

NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman will chair a presidential commission charged with recommending the academy’s governance, location, graduate service obligations and any legislation it needs. The proposal is meant to train engineers, scientists, technicians, operators and astronauts for NASA, the Space Force and the commercial space industry.

ContextNASA already selects small, highly competitive astronaut classes—10 candidates from more than 8,000 applicants in 2025—and gives them nearly two years of mission training at Johnson Space Center. The Air Force Academy already commissions officers into both the Air Force and Space Force through a 47-month undergraduate program. Trump’s order asks the new commission to design a separate institution for a much broader mix of military personnel, civil operators, engineers, technicians, scientists, pilots and astronauts; its structure, location and service requirements remain undecided.

NASA25 sources

5not newsus

Interior weighs Yosemite land swap for a road to a Trump donor’s planned luxury homes

Kingsbarn Realty Capital wants a shorter road from property it owns in Stanislaus National Forest to a Yosemite service road so it can build upscale single-family houses. The Park Service said the company cannot buy park land directly but could acquire other land of equal or greater value and propose a swap.

ContextThe developer says it is working with Interior and is close to identifying exchange land; Interior says there has been no political pressure or predetermined outcome and promises public procedures if a proposal advances. Kingsbarn CEO Jeff Pori has donated to Trump and Republican committees, but the available reporting does not establish that those donations caused the review.

LOS ANGELES TIMES6 sources

6not newsus

Park Service backs Trump’s 250-foot D.C. arch despite finding it would disrupt landmark sightlines

At 250 feet, the arch would stand about 2.5 times as high as the 99-foot Lincoln Memorial and less than half as high as the 555-foot Washington Monument. The report says it would disturb sightlines connecting those landmarks, the Jefferson Memorial and dozens of other historic sites, yet supports the location because the same symbolic landscape that makes it sensitive also makes it suitable for the project.

ContextThe report is the Park Service’s Section 106 assessment of the project’s effects on historic places, not final construction approval. The agency also circulated a draft agreement for resolving the identified harms and took public comments through July 30. It must complete that historic-preservation consultation before the project can proceed.

AP10 sources

Saturday · The daily brief

Aug 292026

6 leads28 briefs8 min

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The whole issue in a few minutes · 4:17 at 1×

Transcript

Executive summary6 stories

News news3

  1. [UPDATE] U.S. goes nearly a month without large Iran strikes as Trump shifts back to sanctions; Hormuz remains closedThe administration says its military goals are complete but is continuing an open-ended economic campaign against Tehran.
  2. [UPDATE] Judge blocks USPS from rejecting noncompliant mail ballots for 14 days; DOJ appealsThe Justice Department appealed to the 1st Circuit as states prepare to send the first midterm ballots next week.
  3. Judge permanently blocks Pentagon’s Anthropic blacklist as unconstitutionalThe Defense Department cannot enforce the supply-chain-risk designation while the administration prepares an appeal.

Not news news3

  1. Trump orders a plan for a NASA-led U.S. Space Academy; commission has 120 days to design it
  2. Interior weighs Yosemite land swap for a road to a Trump donor’s planned luxury homes
  3. Park Service backs Trump’s 250-foot D.C. arch despite finding it would disrupt landmark sightlines

News news3 stories

Ongoing8 earlier updates

1.) ABC NEWS: [UPDATE] U.S. goes nearly a month without large Iran strikes as Trump shifts back to sanctions; Hormuz remains closed

Trump predicted four to five weeks of war; six months later, the administration has set no deadline for ending the economic campaign.
Currently showing Trump predicted four to five weeks; the war has lasted about 26 weeks and counting.
Trump predicted four to five weeks; the war has lasted about 26 weeks and counting.
The war has lasted more than five times Trump’s forecastHorizontal bars compare Trump’s four-to-five-week forecast with approximately 26 weeks elapsed and ongoing.The war has lasted more than five times Trump’s forecastTrump predicted 4–5 weeks; six months later, the conflict is still ongoing.Trump forecast4–5 weeksElapsed≈26 weeksongoing≈21 weeks longer · ≈5.2× the upper forecast051015202530Duration in weeksSix months converted at 52 weeks ÷ 12 months; elapsed figures are approximate.

Iran’s foreign minister met Qatar’s prime minister after separate mediation involving Oman and Pakistan, broadening the negotiating channel beyond earlier Omani talks. Tehran still conditions reopening on U.S. concessions.

Treasury says the Egyptian bank’s Emirati branches processed transactions that helped Iran evade sanctions. The proposed rule has a 30-day comment period before it can take effect.

Ongoing2 earlier updates

This story has run 3 times over 3 days, starting Aug 26.

  1. USPS violated a court order to finalize Trump’s mail-ballot rule; judge allows publication
  2. Judge clears Trump’s USPS mail-ballot rule; 24 states and D.C. sue hours later
  3. [UPDATE] Judge blocks USPS from rejecting noncompliant mail ballots for 14 days; DOJ appeals — this issue

2.) THE GUARDIAN: [UPDATE] Judge blocks USPS from rejecting noncompliant mail ballots for 14 days; DOJ appeals

States are due to send the first midterm ballots next week.
Ongoing1 earlier update

This story has run 2 times, starting Aug 28.

  1. Iran war’s $35.7 billion cost—over half the Pentagon’s $67 billion emergency request—pushes the Navy to shift money from payroll
  2. Judge permanently blocks Pentagon’s Anthropic blacklist as unconstitutional — this issue

3.) REASON: Judge permanently blocks Pentagon’s Anthropic blacklist as unconstitutional

The Defense Department cannot enforce the supply-chain-risk designation while the administration prepares an appeal.

Quick bites28

  1. ICE arrests Milo Yiannopoulos over a visa overstay and missed removal hearing

  2. Thousands march in Washington to urge Black voters to turn out in the midterms

  3. Military judge bars Khalid Sheikh Mohammed’s 2007 FBI confession from his 2028 9/11 trial as involuntary

    The judge found that earlier CIA coercion carried into the FBI interrogation; jury selection is scheduled for June 5, 2028.

  4. Trump asks Supreme Court to let Pentagon enforce its transgender ban against current service members

    The D.C. Circuit barred enforcement against the challengers already serving; the administration argues courts must defer to military judgments about readiness.

    Ongoing4
2 more quick bitesSame day, same run — headlines only until you open one
  1. [UPDATE] CIA chief told Moscow to end the Ukraine war before Russia’s military and economy worsen

    Yesterday’s issue reported that John Ratcliffe made a rare Moscow trip primarily to warn Russia against attacking NATO’s Baltic members. The new reporting says he separately told FSB chief Alexander Bortnikov that Russia’s battlefield gains had stalled and urged Moscow to negotiate an end to the Ukraine war before its military and economy deteriorate further.

    Ongoing3

    This story has run 4 times over 3 days, starting Aug 26.

    1. CIA chief Ratcliffe makes rare Moscow visit
    2. CIA chief reportedly warned Moscow against a limited Russian attack on NATO
    3. CIA chief secretly met Russian intelligence officials in Moscow
    4. [UPDATE] CIA chief told Moscow to end the Ukraine war before Russia’s military and economy worsen — this issue
  2. Ninth Circuit lets Nevada regulate Kalshi sports contracts as gambling, rejecting federal preemption

    The unanimous panel said Kalshi’s sports contracts are bets, not federally protected swaps; it sent the separate question of election contracts back to the district court.

Elections22 races

Congressional control

Who ends up holding each chamber

Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT
7-day replay

U.S. House: chance of Democratic control of the House, Polymarket 89%, Kalshi 85%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 51%, Kalshi 49%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

U.S. HouseDemocratic control7 days ago · Democrats favoured
89%85%chance of Democratic control of the House · 3.5pp apart
U.S. House: chance of Democratic control of the House. 7 days ago, Polymarket 89% and Kalshi 85%. Today it stands at Polymarket 89% and Kalshi 85%.
U.S. SenateDemocrats take it7 days ago · Republicans favoured
51%46%chance Democrats take it · 4.5pp apart
U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. 7 days ago, Polymarket 51% and Kalshi 46%. Today it stands at Polymarket 51% and Kalshi 49%.
7 days ago
How to read thisthe contract, the key, and the week panel

Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take it. This desk has not established who is defending the House, so that bar stays in the market’s own words and claims nothing about who would be losing it. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.

  • two venues, priced separately
  • shaded = how far apart they are
  • 50% — control flips here
  • the last 7 days, on its own scale
  • Polymarket, solid
  • Kalshi, dashed

Both lines in a week panel are the same contract, priced by two venues — not one line per party. Its colour is whose chance the bar is measuring, which is why a panel can be blue while the verdict beside it reads Republicans favoured.

3 of 22 races. Open one, or all of them — every race is on the page either way.

  • jAlaska SenateMary Peltola 63.8%Dan Sullivan 36.3%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election

    Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska Senate

    Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 64.5%, Kalshi 63.0%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 35.5%, Kalshi 37.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • rGeorgia SenateJon Ossoff 92.97%Collins 7.00%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election

    Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia Senate

    Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT
    widest venue gap 1.3pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 93.50%, Kalshi 92.45%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 6.35%, Kalshi 7.65%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.3pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    No 7-day series from Kalshi on Mike Collins. Shown as a hollow dot at today only — nothing is drawn where nothing was reported.

  • kIowa SenateAshley Hinson 61.5%Josh Turek 39.0%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election

    Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa Senate

    Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 60.5%, Kalshi 62.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 40.5%, Kalshi 37.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

The other 19 races22 consequential races · Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT · markets, not polling

Senate7 of 10

  • hMaine SenateTroy Jackson 69.5%Susan Collins 31.0%

    POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election

    Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).

    Two markets, one question

    Maine Senate

    Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 69.5%, Kalshi 69.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 31.5%, Kalshi 30.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • lMichigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed 63.0%Mike Rogers 37.0%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election

    Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan Senate

    Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 64.5%, Kalshi 61.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 35.5%, Kalshi 38.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • sNebraska SenateRicketts vs. Osborn

    POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election

    Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).

    Two markets, one question

    Nebraska Senate

    Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed

    Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 70.5%, Kalshi 69.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    No 7-day series from Kalshi on Pete Ricketts. Shown as a hollow dot at today only — nothing is drawn where nothing was reported.

  • tNew Hampshire Senate primaryMarkets give Chris Pappas about a 94% chance to win New Hampshire’s Democratic Senate nomination

    POLYMARKET: Markets give Chris Pappas about a 94% chance to win New Hampshire’s Democratic Senate nomination

    As of 9:55 a.m. CT on Aug. 29, Polymarket priced Pappas at 94.3% and Kalshi at 94.25%. The Democratic primary remains unresolved; this card does not present a settled general-election matchup.

    Two markets, one question

    New Hampshire Senate primary

    Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT
    widest venue gap 0.1pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New Hampshire Senate primary. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 94.30%, Kalshi 94.25%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.1pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • qNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 91.83%8.40%Whatley

    POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election

    Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).

    Two markets, one question

    North Carolina Senate

    Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT
    widest venue gap 0.6pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 91.50%, Kalshi 92.15%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 8.5%, Kalshi 8.3%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.6pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    No 7-day series from Kalshi on Roy Cooper. Shown as a hollow dot at today only — nothing is drawn where nothing was reported.

  • mOhio SenateSherrod Brown 54.0%Jon Husted 46.0%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election

    Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio Senate

    Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 54.5%, Kalshi 53.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 45.5%, Kalshi 46.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • iTexas SenateTalarico49.5%Paxton50.5%books splitJames Talarico 49.5%Ken Paxton 49.5%

    POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election

    Ken Paxton (R) faces James Talarico (D).

    The books name different leaders

    Texas Senate

    Each line is one book’s lead — the gap between the two candidates, signed. Zero is a tie, and the two venues are on opposite sides of it.

    Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp

    Texas Senate. Lead in percentage points, positive to James Talarico. Polymarket: Talarico ahead by 1 point. Kalshi: Paxton ahead by 1 point. Every day is in the table below.

    Talarico aheadPaxton ahead5%tied5%7d agotodayTalarico +1%PolymarketPaxton +1%Kalshi

    today

    • Talarico+1%Polymarket
    • Paxton+1%Kalshi
    • Talarico49.5%Polymarket
    • Talarico49.5%Kalshi
    • Paxton48.5%Polymarket
    • Paxton50.5%Kalshi

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. The lead is the gap between the two, in points. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Governors12

  • vAlaska governorBernadette Wilson 35.50%63.3%Begich 1.18%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election

    Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska governor

    Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT
    widest venue gap 0.6pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 35.5%, Kalshi 35.5%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 1.50%, Kalshi 0.85%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.6pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    No 7-day series from Kalshi on Bernadette Wilson. Shown as a hollow dot at today only — nothing is drawn where nothing was reported.

  • xArizona governorone bookKatie Hobbs 86.5%13.5%Biggs

    POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election

    Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).

  • abFlorida governorone bookByron Donalds 83.5%Jolly 17.5%

    POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election

    Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).

  • oGeorgia governorKeisha Lance Bottoms 59.3%Rick Jackson 40.8%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election

    Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia governor

    Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed

    Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 59.0%, Kalshi 59.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 40.0%, Kalshi 41.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    No 7-day series from Kalshi on Keisha Lance Bottoms; Kalshi on Rick Jackson. Shown as a hollow dot at today only — nothing is drawn where nothing was reported.

  • uIowa governorRob Sand 74.5%Zach Lahn 26.0%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election

    Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa governor

    Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 74.5%, Kalshi 74.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 25.5%, Kalshi 26.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    No 7-day series from Kalshi on Rob Sand. Shown as a hollow dot at today only — nothing is drawn where nothing was reported.

  • wMichigan governorone bookJocelyn Benson 89.15%10.65%James

    POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election

    Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan governor

    Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT
    one venue only
    • Kalshi, dashed

    Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Kalshi 89.15%; John James (R): Kalshi 10.65%. Full history is in the table below.

    5 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Kalshi.

    No 7-day series from Kalshi on John James. Shown as a hollow dot at today only — nothing is drawn where nothing was reported.

  • pNevada governorJoe Lombardo 59.3%Aaron Ford 41.0%

    POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election

    Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).

    Two markets, one question

    Nevada governor

    Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT
    widest venue gap 0.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 59.5%, Kalshi 59.0%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 41%, Kalshi 41%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    No 7-day series from Kalshi on Aaron Ford. Shown as a hollow dot at today only — nothing is drawn where nothing was reported.

  • zNew York governorone bookKathy Hochul 94.3%Blakeman 6.0%

    POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election

    Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).

    Two markets, one question

    New York governor

    Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT
    one venue only
    • Kalshi, dashed

    New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Kalshi 94.3%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Kalshi 6%. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Kalshi.

    No 7-day series from Kalshi on Kathy Hochul. Shown as a hollow dot at today only — nothing is drawn where nothing was reported.

  • gOhio governorAmy Acton 54.5%Vivek Ramaswamy 45.5%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election

    Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio governor

    Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 53.5%, Kalshi 55.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 46.5%, Kalshi 44.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • aaPennsylvania governorone bookJosh Shapiro 97.2%Garrity 3.9%

    POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election

    Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).

    Two markets, one question

    Pennsylvania governor

    Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT
    one venue only
    • Kalshi, dashed

    Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Kalshi 97.2%; Stacy Garrity (R): Kalshi 3.9%. Full history is in the table below.

    4 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Kalshi.

    No 7-day series from Kalshi on Stacy Garrity. Shown as a hollow dot at today only — nothing is drawn where nothing was reported.

  • yTexas governorone bookGreg Abbott 85.5%15.5%Hinojosa

    POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election

    Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).

  • nWisconsin governorone bookDavid Crowley 79.5%Tiffany 20.5%

    POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election

    David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).

    Two markets, one question

    Wisconsin governor

    Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT
    one venue only
    • Kalshi, dashed

    Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Kalshi 79.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Kalshi 20.5%. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Kalshi.

    No 7-day series from Kalshi on Tom Tiffany. Shown as a hollow dot at today only — nothing is drawn where nothing was reported.

Prices captured Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.

Not news news3 stories

4.) NASA: Trump orders a plan for a NASA-led U.S. Space Academy; commission has 120 days to design it

The order starts a planning process—it does not yet create a campus, curriculum or incoming class.
Ongoing1 earlier update

This story has run 2 times over 10 days, starting Aug 19.

  1. Forest Service moves to open 44 million roadless acres to logging and roads
  2. Interior weighs Yosemite land swap for a road to a Trump donor’s planned luxury homes — this issue

5.) LOS ANGELES TIMES: Interior weighs Yosemite land swap for a road to a Trump donor’s planned luxury homes

No parcel has been selected and no transfer has been approved.

6.) AP: Park Service backs Trump’s 250-foot D.C. arch despite finding it would disrupt landmark sightlines

The agency’s preservation review identifies the harm and still calls Memorial Circle the historically appropriate site.