News news3 stories
Ongoing8 earlier updates37 days
This story has run 9 times over 37 days, starting Jul 23.
- Trump Threatens to Bomb Iranian Bridges and Power Plants for Every Ship Hit in Strait of Hormuz
- Iran fires multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. base in Jordan; all are intercepted
- Iran denies Trump’s claim that new U.S. talks would start Monday
- Cargo ship is struck in the Strait of Hormuz
- Vance says the Iran talks are moving, then calls the war only half over
- Iran won't reopen Hormuz until the US unfreezes its assets and lifts the blockade
- Trump threatens to bomb Oman, the U.S. ally brokering the deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
- Trump declares an "economic D-Day" on Iran as Hormuz traffic runs 85% below normal
- UpdateU.S. goes nearly a month without large Iran strikes as Trump shifts back to sanctions; Hormuz remains closed — this issue
Trump predicted four to five weeks of war; six months later, the administration has set no deadline for ending the economic campaign.
Related reading
Iran’s foreign minister met Qatar’s prime minister after separate mediation involving Oman and Pakistan, broadening the negotiating channel beyond earlier Omani talks. Tehran still conditions reopening on U.S. concessions.
Treasury says the Egyptian bank’s Emirati branches processed transactions that helped Iran evade sanctions. The proposed rule has a 30-day comment period before it can take effect.
Ongoing2 earlier updates3 days
This story has run 3 times over 3 days, starting Aug 26.
- USPS violated a court order to finalize Trump’s mail-ballot rule; judge allows publication
- Judge clears Trump’s USPS mail-ballot rule; 24 states and D.C. sue hours later
- UpdateJudge blocks USPS from rejecting noncompliant mail ballots for 14 days; DOJ appeals — this issue
States are due to send the first midterm ballots next week.
The Defense Department cannot enforce the supply-chain-risk designation while the administration prepares an appeal.
Quick bites6
ICE arrests Milo Yiannopoulos over a visa overstay and missed removal hearing
REASONVisa crackdownThousands march in Washington to urge Black voters to turn out in the midterms
WASHINGTON EXAMINERMilitary judge bars Khalid Sheikh Mohammed’s 2007 FBI confession from his 2028 9/11 trial as involuntary
THE NEW YORK TIMESThe judge found that earlier CIA coercion carried into the FBI interrogation; jury selection is scheduled for June 5, 2028.
Trump asks Supreme Court to let Pentagon enforce its transgender ban against current service members
SCOTUSBLOGThe D.C. Circuit barred enforcement against the challengers already serving; the administration argues courts must defer to military judgments about readiness.
CIA chief told Moscow to end the Ukraine war before Russia’s military and economy worsen
THE NEW YORK TIMESUpdateRussia-Ukraine warYesterday’s issue reported that John Ratcliffe made a rare Moscow trip primarily to warn Russia against attacking NATO’s Baltic members. The new reporting says he separately told FSB chief Alexander Bortnikov that Russia’s battlefield gains had stalled and urged Moscow to negotiate an end to the Ukraine war before its military and economy deteriorate further.
Ongoing3
This story has run 4 times over 3 days, starting Aug 26.
- CIA chief Ratcliffe makes rare Moscow visit
- CIA chief reportedly warned Moscow against a limited Russian attack on NATO
- CIA chief secretly met Russian intelligence officials in Moscow
- UpdateCIA chief told Moscow to end the Ukraine war before Russia’s military and economy worsen — this issue
Ninth Circuit lets Nevada regulate Kalshi sports contracts as gambling, rejecting federal preemption
NINTH CIRCUITPrediction marketsThe unanimous panel said Kalshi’s sports contracts are bets, not federally protected swaps; it sent the separate question of election contracts back to the district court.
Elections22 races
The midterms · 66 days out · November 3, 2026
D or R take the House / Senate?
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 89%, Kalshi 85%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 51%, Kalshi 49%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.
No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only
Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.
- two venues, priced separately
- shaded = how far apart they are
- 50% — control flips here
- where it stood 7 days ago
- the last 7 days, on its own scale
- week panel: one line a party
The week panel draws one line per party, crossing where control does. Only the Democratic line is a traded price: the Republicanline is its arithmetic complement, the same mirror the bar’s other half is, and not a second market agreeing with the first. The shading around each line is how far apart the two venues are.
Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.
The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 4.0pp gap / 2.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.
Who is defending the House and the Senate is sourced, not remembered — House, 2026-07-23 issue: the NDAA passed “216-212, with six Democrats joining a unified Republican majority.”; Senate, 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.”
Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
| Day | U.S. House · Polymarket | U.S. House · Kalshi | U.S. Senate · Polymarket | U.S. Senate · Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days ago | 89% | 85% | 51% | 46% |
| 6 days ago | 89% | 85% | 50% | 46% |
| 5 days ago | 89% | 86% | 50% | 46% |
| 4 days ago | 88% | 86% | 50% | 48% |
| 3 days ago | 88% | 85% | 51% | 49% |
| 2 days ago | 89% | 84% | 51% | 48% |
| yesterday | 89% | 84% | 51% | 48% |
| today | 89% | 85% | 51% | 49% |
3 closest races
iTexas SenatePaxton vs. TalaricoTalarico49.5%Paxton50.5%books split
POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election
Ken Paxton (R) faces James Talarico (D).
The books name different leaders
Texas Senate
Each line is one book’s lead — the gap between the two candidates, signed. Zero is a tie, and the two venues are on opposite sides of it.
Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT
widest venue gap 2.0ppTexas Senate. Lead in percentage points, positive to James Talarico. Polymarket: Talarico ahead by 1 point. Kalshi: Paxton ahead by 1 point. Every day is in the table below.
today
- Talarico+1%Polymarket
- Paxton+1%Kalshi
- Talarico49.5%Polymarket
- Talarico49.5%Kalshi
- Paxton48.5%Polymarket
- Paxton50.5%Kalshi
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. The lead is the gap between the two, in points. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
The lead is one candidate’s price minus the other’s, at the same venue on the same day — never one book’s Tuesday against the other’s Thursday. It is drawn only where a venue priced both candidates, so a line starts late rather than being stretched across days it was never quoted over.
A day inside a tenth of a point is printed as levelrather than being rounded onto somebody’s side: on a chart whose whole subject is who is in front, a dead heat shown as a win is the one error that cannot be recovered from the drawing.
The markets: James Talarico Polymarket, Kalshi · Ken Paxton Polymarket, Kalshi
Every price behind the chart, and the lead it produces. Texas Senate, snapshot Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT. Day Talarico · Polymarket Paxton · Polymarket Lead · Polymarket Talarico · Kalshi Paxton · Kalshi Lead · Kalshi 7 days ago 51.5% 48.5% Talarico +3% 48.0% 55.0% Paxton +7% 6 days ago 50.5% 48.5% Talarico +2% 47.0% 53.0% Paxton +6% 5 days ago 49.5% 49.5% level 50.0% 52.0% Paxton +2% 4 days ago 49.5% 48.5% Talarico +1% 52.0% 49.0% Talarico +3% 3 days ago 49.5% 48.5% Talarico +1% 49.0% 51.0% Paxton +2% 2 days ago 49.5% 48.5% Talarico +1% 49.0% 51.0% Paxton +2% yesterday 49.5% 48.5% Talarico +1% 50.0% 51.0% Paxton +1% today 49.5% 48.5% Talarico +1% 49.5% 50.5% Paxton +1% mOhio Senate
POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election
Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).
Two markets, one question
Ohio Senate
Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 54.5%, Kalshi 53.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 45.5%, Kalshi 46.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Sherrod Brown 54% · Jon Husted 46%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Sherrod Brown (D)7 days agoPolymarket$110K53.5%Kalshi987K contracts · 53%/54%52.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+1.0ppJon Husted (R)7 days agoPolymarket$78.0K47.5%Kalshi1.4M contracts · 46%/47%49.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio Senate, snapshot Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT. Day Sherrod Brown · Polymarket Sherrod Brown · Kalshi Jon Husted · Polymarket Jon Husted · Kalshi 7 days ago 53.5% 52.0% 47.5% 49.0% 6 days ago 53.5% 51.0% 47.5% 49.0% 5 days ago 54.5% 52.0% 46.5% 49.0% 4 days ago 54.5% 55.0% 46.5% 47.0% 3 days ago 54.5% 55.0% 45.0% 47.0% 2 days ago 55.5% 54.0% 45.0% 47.0% yesterday 55.5% 55.0% 45.5% 47.0% today 54.5% 53.5% 45.5% 46.5% gOhio governor
POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election
Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).
Two markets, one question
Ohio governor
Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 53.5%, Kalshi 55.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 46.5%, Kalshi 44.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Amy Acton 55% · Vivek Ramaswamy 45%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Amy Acton (D)7 days agoPolymarket$79.3K49.5%Kalshi681K contracts · 55%/56%52.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+4.0ppVivek Ramaswamy (R)7 days agoPolymarket$95.0K49.5%Kalshi715K contracts · 44%/45%49.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-3.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio governor, snapshot Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT. Day Amy Acton · Polymarket Amy Acton · Kalshi Vivek Ramaswamy · Polymarket Vivek Ramaswamy · Kalshi 7 days ago 49.5% 52.0% 49.5% 49.0% 6 days ago 50.5% 52.0% 49.5% 49.0% 5 days ago 51.5% 56.0% 47.5% 45.0% 4 days ago 54.5% 57.0% 45.5% 44.0% 3 days ago 54.5% 57.0% 45.5% 47.0% 2 days ago 53.5% 56.0% 46.5% 45.0% yesterday 54.5% 56.0% 46.5% 44.0% today 53.5% 55.5% 46.5% 44.5%
The other 19 races
Senate8 of 10
jAlaska Senate
POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election
Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).
Two markets, one question
Alaska Senate
Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 64.5%, Kalshi 63.0%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 35.5%, Kalshi 37.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Mary Peltola 64% · Dan Sullivan 36%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Mary Peltola (D)7 days agoPolymarket$236K56.5%Kalshi73.1K contracts · 62%/64%62.0%venue gap5.5pp7-day move+8.0ppDan Sullivan (R)7 days agoPolymarket$135K43%Kalshi68.1K contracts · 36%/38%42%venue gap1.0pp7-day move-7.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska Senate, snapshot Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT. Day Mary Peltola · Polymarket Mary Peltola · Kalshi Dan Sullivan · Polymarket Dan Sullivan · Kalshi 7 days ago 56.5% 62% 43.0% 42% 6 days ago 61.5% 61% 39.5% 42% 5 days ago 61.5% 63% 39.0% 40% 4 days ago 61.0% 64% 38.5% 38% 3 days ago 61.5% 64% 38.5% 41% 2 days ago 64.5% 65% 36.5% 39% yesterday 66.5% 64% 34.5% 39% today 64.5% 63% 35.5% 37% rGeorgia Senate
POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election
Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).
Two markets, one question
Georgia Senate
Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.3pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 93.50%, Kalshi 92.45%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 6.35%, Kalshi 7.65%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.3pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jon Ossoff 93% · Mike Collins 7.5%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jon Ossoff (D)7 days agoPolymarket$48.4K92.5%Kalshi348K contracts · 92%/93%92.1%venue gap0.4pp7-day move+1.0ppMike Collins (R)7 days agoPolymarket$74.5K7.4%Kalshi811K contracts · 7.5%/7.8%—venue gap—7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia Senate, snapshot Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT. Day Jon Ossoff · Polymarket Jon Ossoff · Kalshi Mike Collins · Polymarket Mike Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 92.5% 92.10% 7.40% — 6 days ago 93.5% 91.50% 6.90% — 5 days ago 93.5% 91.80% 6.95% — 4 days ago 93.5% 92.40% 6.95% — 3 days ago 93.5% 91.70% 6.10% — 2 days ago 93.5% 92.10% 6.05% — yesterday 93.5% 92.70% 6.35% — today 93.5% 92.45% 6.35% 7.65% No 7-day series from Kalshi on Mike Collins. Shown as a hollow dot at today only — nothing is drawn where nothing was reported.
kIowa Senate
POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election
Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).
Two markets, one question
Iowa Senate
Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 60.5%, Kalshi 62.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 40.5%, Kalshi 37.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Ashley Hinson 61% · Josh Turek 40%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Ashley Hinson (R)7 days agoPolymarket$109K60.5%Kalshi7.2K contracts · 62%/63%60.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppJosh Turek (D)7 days agoPolymarket$106K40.5%Kalshi8.9K contracts · 35%/40%—venue gap—7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa Senate, snapshot Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT. Day Ashley Hinson · Polymarket Ashley Hinson · Kalshi Josh Turek · Polymarket Josh Turek · Kalshi 7 days ago 60.5% 60.0% 40.5% — 6 days ago 60.5% 60.0% 40.5% 46.0% 5 days ago 60.5% 58.0% 40.5% 44.0% 4 days ago 60.5% 58.0% 40.5% 43.0% 3 days ago 60.5% 60.0% 40.5% 39.0% 2 days ago 60.5% 60.0% 39.5% 44.0% yesterday 60.5% 63.0% 40.5% 40.0% today 60.5% 62.5% 40.5% 37.5% hMaine Senate
POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election
Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).
Two markets, one question
Maine Senate
Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 69.5%, Kalshi 69.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 31.5%, Kalshi 30.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Troy Jackson 69% · Susan Collins 31%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Troy Jackson (D)7 days agoPolymarket$732K70.5%Kalshi1.9M contracts · 69%/70%69.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-1.0ppSusan Collins (R)7 days agoPolymarket$495K30.5%Kalshi2.6M contracts · 30%/31%32.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Maine Senate, snapshot Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT. Day Troy Jackson · Polymarket Troy Jackson · Kalshi Susan Collins · Polymarket Susan Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 70.5% 69.0% 30.5% 32.0% 6 days ago 70.5% 68.0% 30.5% 33.0% 5 days ago 70.5% 69.0% 30.0% 31.0% 4 days ago 70.5% 69.0% 30.0% 30.0% 3 days ago 70.5% 69.0% 30.5% 32.0% 2 days ago 69.5% 67.0% 30.5% 35.0% yesterday 69.5% 69.0% 31.5% 32.0% today 69.5% 69.5% 31.5% 30.5% lMichigan Senate
POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election
Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).
Two markets, one question
Michigan Senate
Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 64.5%, Kalshi 61.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 35.5%, Kalshi 38.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 62% · Mike Rogers 38%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Abdul El-Sayed (D)7 days agoPolymarket$330K63%Kalshi690K contracts · 61%/62%61%venue gap2.0pp7-day move+1.5ppMike Rogers (R)7 days agoPolymarket$279K36.5%Kalshi757K contracts · 38%/39%42.0%venue gap5.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan Senate, snapshot Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT. Day Abdul El-Sayed · Polymarket Abdul El-Sayed · Kalshi Mike Rogers · Polymarket Mike Rogers · Kalshi 7 days ago 63.0% 61.0% 36.5% 42.0% 6 days ago 63.0% 59.0% 38.0% 41.0% 5 days ago 60.5% 59.0% 40.5% 41.0% 4 days ago 61.5% 61.0% 38.5% 41.0% 3 days ago 63.0% 62.0% 37.5% 40.0% 2 days ago 64.5% 62.0% 35.5% 40.0% yesterday 64.5% 62.0% 35.5% 37.0% today 64.5% 61.5% 35.5% 38.5% sNebraska SenateRicketts vs. Osborn
POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election
Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).
Two markets, one question
Nebraska Senate
Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 70.5%, Kalshi 69.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Pete Ricketts 70%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Pete Ricketts (R)7 days agoPolymarket$90.8K70.5%Kalshi282K contracts · 69%/70%—venue gap—7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nebraska Senate, snapshot Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT. Day Pete Ricketts · Polymarket Pete Ricketts · Kalshi 7 days ago 70.5% — 6 days ago 70.5% — 5 days ago 69.5% — 4 days ago 69.5% — 3 days ago 69.5% — 2 days ago 70.5% — yesterday 70.5% — today 70.5% 69.5% No 7-day series from Kalshi on Pete Ricketts. Shown as a hollow dot at today only — nothing is drawn where nothing was reported.
tNew Hampshire Senate primaryMarkets give Chris Pappas about a 94% chance to win New Hampshire’s Democratic Senate nomination
POLYMARKET: Markets give Chris Pappas about a 94% chance to win New Hampshire’s Democratic Senate nomination
As of 9:55 a.m. CT on Aug. 29, Polymarket priced Pappas at 94.3% and Kalshi at 94.25%. The Democratic primary remains unresolved; this card does not present a settled general-election matchup.
Two markets, one question
New Hampshire Senate primary
Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT
widest venue gap 0.1pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New Hampshire Senate primary. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 94.30%, Kalshi 94.25%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.1pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Chris Pappas 94%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Chris Pappas (D)*7 days agoPolymarket$34.6K95.05%Kalshi90.3K contracts · 94%/94%95.70%venue gap0.6pp7-day move-0.8ppEvery sample behind the chart. New Hampshire Senate primary, snapshot Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT. Day Chris Pappas · Polymarket Chris Pappas · Kalshi 7 days ago 95.05% 95.70% 6 days ago 95.00% 96.00% 5 days ago 95.35% 97.40% 4 days ago 96.15% 97.40% 3 days ago 95.65% 93.90% 2 days ago 92.65% 94.20% yesterday 92.90% 94.00% today 94.30% 94.25% qNorth Carolina Senate
POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election
Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).
Two markets, one question
North Carolina Senate
Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT
widest venue gap 0.6pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 91.50%, Kalshi 92.15%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 8.5%, Kalshi 8.3%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.6pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Roy Cooper 92% · Michael Whatley 8.3%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Roy Cooper (D)7 days agoPolymarket$40.8K91.5%Kalshi1.3M contracts · 92%/93%—venue gap—7-day move0.0ppMichael Whatley (R)7 days agoPolymarket$59.7K9.0%Kalshi368K contracts · 7.8%/8.8%8.7%venue gap0.3pp7-day move-0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. North Carolina Senate, snapshot Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT. Day Roy Cooper · Polymarket Roy Cooper · Kalshi Michael Whatley · Polymarket Michael Whatley · Kalshi 7 days ago 91.5% — 9.0% 8.7% 6 days ago 92.0% — 9.0% 8.7% 5 days ago 92.5% — 8.5% 8.7% 4 days ago 92.5% — 8.5% 8.1% 3 days ago 91.5% — 8.5% 8.4% 2 days ago 91.5% — 8.5% 7.8% yesterday 91.5% — 8.5% 8.8% today 91.5% 92.15% 8.5% 8.3% No 7-day series from Kalshi on Roy Cooper. Shown as a hollow dot at today only — nothing is drawn where nothing was reported.
Governors11 of 12
vAlaska governor
POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election
Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).
Two markets, one question
Alaska governor
Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT
widest venue gap 0.6pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 35.5%, Kalshi 35.5%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 1.50%, Kalshi 0.85%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.6pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Bernadette Wilson 36% · Tom Begich 1.1%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Bernadette Wilson (R)7 days agoPolymarket$167K35.5%Kalshi37.7K contracts · 35%/36%—venue gap—7-day move0.0ppTom Begich (D)7 days agoPolymarket$157K19%Kalshi224K contracts · 0.5%/1.2%18%venue gap1.0pp7-day move-18ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska governor, snapshot Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT. Day Bernadette Wilson · Polymarket Bernadette Wilson · Kalshi Tom Begich · Polymarket Tom Begich · Kalshi 7 days ago 35.5% — 19.00% 18.00% 6 days ago 35.5% — 19.00% 21.00% 5 days ago 35.5% — 20.00% 19.00% 4 days ago 35.5% — 18.50% 18.00% 3 days ago 35.5% — 18.00% 18.00% 2 days ago 35.5% — 15.00% 14.00% yesterday 36.5% — 3.25% 1.00% today 35.5% 35.5% 1.50% 0.85% No 7-day series from Kalshi on Bernadette Wilson. Shown as a hollow dot at today only — nothing is drawn where nothing was reported.
xArizona governorone book
POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election
Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).
abFlorida governorone book
POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election
Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).
oGeorgia governor
POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).
Two markets, one question
Georgia governor
Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 59.0%, Kalshi 59.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 40.0%, Kalshi 41.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Keisha Lance Bottoms 59% · Rick Jackson 41%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)7 days agoPolymarket$32.4K60%Kalshi271K contracts · 59%/60%—venue gap—7-day move-1.0ppRick Jackson (R)7 days agoPolymarket$36.8K40.5%Kalshi357K contracts · 41%/42%—venue gap—7-day move-0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia governor, snapshot Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT. Day Keisha Lance Bottoms · Polymarket Keisha Lance Bottoms · Kalshi Rick Jackson · Polymarket Rick Jackson · Kalshi 7 days ago 60.0% — 40.5% — 6 days ago 60.0% — 40.5% — 5 days ago 60.0% — 40.5% — 4 days ago 60.5% — 40.0% — 3 days ago 61.0% — 40.0% — 2 days ago 59.0% — 40.0% — yesterday 59.0% — 40.0% — today 59.0% 59.5% 40.0% 41.5% No 7-day series from Kalshi on Keisha Lance Bottoms; Kalshi on Rick Jackson. Shown as a hollow dot at today only — nothing is drawn where nothing was reported.
uIowa governor
POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election
Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).
Two markets, one question
Iowa governor
Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 74.5%, Kalshi 74.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 25.5%, Kalshi 26.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Rob Sand 75% · Zach Lahn 26%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Rob Sand (D)7 days agoPolymarket$31.0K73.5%Kalshi244K contracts · 74%/75%—venue gap—7-day move+1.0ppZach Lahn (R)7 days agoPolymarket$43.5K26%Kalshi285K contracts · 26%/27%24%venue gap2.0pp7-day move-0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa governor, snapshot Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT. Day Rob Sand · Polymarket Rob Sand · Kalshi Zach Lahn · Polymarket Zach Lahn · Kalshi 7 days ago 73.5% — 26.0% 24.0% 6 days ago 73.5% — 25.5% 23.0% 5 days ago 74.5% — 26.5% 24.0% 4 days ago 73.5% — 27.5% 26.0% 3 days ago 74.5% — 24.5% 26.0% 2 days ago 74.0% — 25.5% 27.0% yesterday 74.5% — 25.5% 27.0% today 74.5% 74.5% 25.5% 26.5% No 7-day series from Kalshi on Rob Sand. Shown as a hollow dot at today only — nothing is drawn where nothing was reported.
wMichigan governorone book
POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election
Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).
Two markets, one question
Michigan governor
Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT
one venue only- Kalshi, dashed
Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Kalshi 89.15%; John James (R): Kalshi 10.65%. Full history is in the table below.
5 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 6 samples long.
Every sample behind the chart. Michigan governor, snapshot Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT. Day Jocelyn Benson · Kalshi John James · Kalshi 5 days ago 87.00% — 4 days ago 89.00% — 3 days ago 88.00% — 2 days ago 92.90% — yesterday 89.00% — today 89.15% 10.65% No 7-day series from Kalshi on John James. Shown as a hollow dot at today only — nothing is drawn where nothing was reported.
pNevada governor
POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election
Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).
Two markets, one question
Nevada governor
Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 59.5%, Kalshi 59.0%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 41%, Kalshi 41%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Joe Lombardo 59% · Aaron Ford 41%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Joe Lombardo (R)7 days agoPolymarket$49.2K59.5%Kalshi226K contracts · 58%/60%60.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppAaron Ford (D)7 days agoPolymarket$22.2K41%Kalshi482K contracts · 40%/42%—venue gap—7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nevada governor, snapshot Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT. Day Joe Lombardo · Polymarket Joe Lombardo · Kalshi Aaron Ford · Polymarket Aaron Ford · Kalshi 7 days ago 59.5% 60% 41.0% — 6 days ago 59.5% 61% 41.0% — 5 days ago 59.5% 59% 41.0% — 4 days ago 59.5% 59% 40.5% — 3 days ago 59.5% 61% 41.0% — 2 days ago 59.5% 61% 41.0% — yesterday 59.5% 60% 41.0% — today 59.5% 59% 41.0% 41% No 7-day series from Kalshi on Aaron Ford. Shown as a hollow dot at today only — nothing is drawn where nothing was reported.
zNew York governorone book
POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election
Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).
Two markets, one question
New York governor
Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT
one venue only- Kalshi, dashed
New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Kalshi 94.3%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Kalshi 6%. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Every sample behind the chart. New York governor, snapshot Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT. Day Kathy Hochul · Kalshi Bruce Blakeman · Kalshi 7 days ago — 5.7% 6 days ago — 6.7% 5 days ago — 6.2% 4 days ago — 5.4% 3 days ago — 6.4% 2 days ago — 6.1% yesterday — 6.2% today 94.3% 6.0% No 7-day series from Kalshi on Kathy Hochul. Shown as a hollow dot at today only — nothing is drawn where nothing was reported.
aaPennsylvania governorone book
POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election
Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).
Two markets, one question
Pennsylvania governor
Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT
one venue only- Kalshi, dashed
Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Kalshi 97.2%; Stacy Garrity (R): Kalshi 3.9%. Full history is in the table below.
4 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 5 samples long.
Every sample behind the chart. Pennsylvania governor, snapshot Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT. Day Josh Shapiro · Kalshi Stacy Garrity · Kalshi 4 days ago 97.8% — 3 days ago 96.3% — 2 days ago 96.0% — yesterday 97.7% — today 97.2% 3.9% No 7-day series from Kalshi on Stacy Garrity. Shown as a hollow dot at today only — nothing is drawn where nothing was reported.
yTexas governorone book
POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election
Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).
nWisconsin governorone book
POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election
David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).
Two markets, one question
Wisconsin governor
Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT
one venue only- Kalshi, dashed
Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Kalshi 79.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Kalshi 20.5%. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Every sample behind the chart. Wisconsin governor, snapshot Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT. Day David Crowley · Kalshi Tom Tiffany · Kalshi 7 days ago 79.0% — 6 days ago 80.0% — 5 days ago 78.0% — 4 days ago 79.0% — 3 days ago 80.0% — 2 days ago 78.0% — yesterday 80.0% — today 79.5% 20.5% No 7-day series from Kalshi on Tom Tiffany. Shown as a hollow dot at today only — nothing is drawn where nothing was reported.
“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.