News news4 stories
Ongoing7 earlier updates20 days
This story has run 8 times over 20 days, starting Aug 26.
- USPS violated a court order to finalize Trump’s mail-ballot rule; judge allows publication
- Judge clears Trump’s USPS mail-ballot rule; 24 states and D.C. sue hours later
- UpdateJudge blocks USPS from rejecting noncompliant mail ballots for 14 days; DOJ appeals
- UpdateMissouri asks the Supreme Court to reinstate its 7-1 congressional map three days before the ballot deadline
- Kavanaugh leaves Missouri's 6-2 map in place; hours later a federal judge orders the state to run the 7-1 map
- UpdateStates ask Supreme Court to keep new USPS ballot requirements blocked
- Update3-0 First Circuit keeps Trump mail-ballot rule blocked as 7 Republican officials oppose pre-November start
- UpdateSupreme Court leaves Trump's USPS mail-ballot rules blocked for Nov. 3 midterms in apparent 7-2 vote — this issue
Hours earlier, Judge Carl Nichols, a Trump appointee, separately blocked the rule, finding no law grants USPS its key powers.
The Supreme Court on Monday, Sept. 14 rejected the Trump administration's emergency request to enforce new Postal Service mail-ballot rules before the Nov. 3 midterms, in an apparent 7-2 order saying the government is unlikely to win on the merits.
The split. Justices Alito and Thomas dissented. Justice Kavanaugh, joined by Justice Jackson, wrote that the rule may be lawful but that applying it in 2026 would be arbitrary and capricious for lack of time.
The lower court. Hours earlier, a 24-page ruling from Judge Carl Nichols, a Trump appointee, held that no law authorizes the rule's core.
The clock. Ballots are already going out in Alabama, North Carolina and Wisconsin, 50 days before the election.
Catch up
- Aug. 26 — USPS finished the rule despite a nationwide order; the judge let it publish while the Supreme Court lifted an earlier block 6-3 as premature.
- Aug. 27 — A Boston judge lifted the injunction; 24 states and D.C. sued hours later, arguing USPS lacks authority and voters would be disenfranchised.
- Aug. 29 — The judge blocked USPS from rejecting ballots for 14 days, found no fraud evidence, and set a Sept. 3 hearing; DOJ appealed.
- Sept. 10 — States asked the Supreme Court to keep the ballot requirements blocked.
- Sept. 11 — The 1st Circuit kept the rule blocked 3-0; 7 Republican officials opposed a pre-November start.
- Sept. 12 — The Supreme Court took up the administration's emergency bid to enforce the rule before November.
6 earlier issues
- USPS violated a court order to finalize Trump’s mail-ballot rule; judge allows publication
- Judge clears Trump’s USPS mail-ballot rule; 24 states and D.C. sue hours later
- UpdateJudge blocks USPS from rejecting noncompliant mail ballots for 14 days; DOJ appeals
- UpdateMissouri asks the Supreme Court to reinstate its 7-1 congressional map three days before the ballot deadline
- Kavanaugh leaves Missouri's 6-2 map in place; hours later a federal judge orders the state to run the 7-1 map
- UpdateStates ask Supreme Court to keep new USPS ballot requirements blocked
What the blocked rule would have required
- States would have had to upload voter lists to a Postal Service portal to clear ballot mail.
- The Postal Service could refuse ballot mail that failed its standards.
It faded to 4.961% by mid-afternoon as Brent crude hit $108.50 ahead of the Fed decision Wednesday, Sept. 16.
The 10-year Treasury yield (the rate Washington pays to borrow for a decade) rose above 5% Monday, Sept. 14, hitting 5.014% then easing to 4.961% by mid-afternoon. It was only the second time above 5% in 19 years and the first since October 2023, up from a 4% low earlier this year, before the Iran war.
The inflation shock behind the move is the Iran war's oil spike — covered in the Houthis lead above. The average 30-year mortgage rate hit 7.17%, its highest in a year, up from 6.29% a year ago.
What next. The Federal Reserve announces its rate decision Wednesday, Sept. 16. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett warned against hiking this close to an election, though the Fed raised rates four times before the 2022 midterms — the last one six days before Election Day. Economist Douglas Holtz-Eakin said skipping the increase would undercut the Fed's credibility while inflation stays the central challenge.
2022: the Fed hiked six days before Election Day
How we got here
- Sept. 14 — UK benchmark gas hit 208.73 pence per therm, its highest since December 2022.
- Sept. 9 — Treasury announced a buyback of up to $6 billion in long-dated bonds; long yields rose anyway.
- February — The CBO projected the 10-year rate would take at least 30 years to pass 4.4%; it hit 5% seven months later, economist Jessica Riedl noted.
The print driving it. August prices rose 0.4% on the month and 3.4% on the year, with gains beyond oil — against Trump's 'coming down sharply' claim, flagged by CNN fact-checker Daniel Dale.
Ongoing5 earlier updates6 days
This story has run 6 times over 6 days, starting Sep 9.
- Houthi missiles and drones hit 4 Saudi cities, wounding 73 and halting Aramco's 400,000-barrel-a-day Jazan refinery
- Houthis capture Yemen's Mokha from Saudi-backed forces 46 miles from Bab el-Mandeb
- UpdateHouthi forces captured Mokha and Perim island in the 28-kilometer Bab el-Mandeb strait.
- UpdateA day after the Bab el-Mandeb capture, maritime monitors have recorded no new transit halts
- UpdateSaudi Arabia shuts Hormuz-bypass pipeline, oil rises more than $3 with 4% of supply at risk
- UpdateHouthis seize two more Red Sea islands as Saudi pipeline faces 3-to-5-week outage — this issue
Riyadh had rerouted about 4 million barrels a day through the line; Yanbu holds 5 to 7 days of export stocks.
Houthi rebels seized Greater and Lesser Hanish on Monday, Sept. 14, tightening their hold over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait (the narrow Red Sea entrance between the Indian Ocean and Suez) days after taking Mokha and Perim Island (Friday, Sept. 11).
Repairs to Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline (the 1,200-km bypass moving Gulf crude to the Red Sea), hit Thursday, Sept. 10 in an attack Riyadh blamed on Iran-backed militias in Iraq, will take three to five weeks, per two regional officials.
The islands. The Hanish group sits 160 km (100 miles) north of the strait, which carries roughly a tenth of global trade. Rebels deployed after hundreds of government-allied forces withdrew; council official Sultan Al-Aradah says those forces are regrouping and will return.
The oil. The line can carry 7 million barrels a day; Riyadh had rerouted about 4 million barrels a day through it, about 4% of global supply. The Strait of Hormuz (the Gulf chokepoint for a fifth of traded oil and gas in peacetime) is moving a fraction of normal traffic — Al Jazeera put flows at 6 to 9 million barrels a day against about 20 million in peacetime. Yanbu holds five to seven days of stocks. Brent crude (the global oil benchmark) settled higher Monday, Sept. 14.
The U.S. An appeal by Mohammed bin Salman (Crown Prince, Saudi Arabia) for U.S. airstrikes was declined, though Centcom (the U.S. command running forces in the Middle East) chief Adm. Brad Cooper met him in Jeddah. Donald Trump said the Houthis called, 'don't want to fight with us' and are 'letting most ships go through.'
The toll. More than 82,000 people have been displaced in Yemen since Tuesday, Sept. 1, per the U.N. migration agency, and more than 2,000 Yemenis have fled to Djibouti. TIME puts deaths in the years-long civil war at 150,000.
What next. The line stays mostly out of service for three to five weeks while withdrawn government-allied forces regroup to return to the battle.
Catch up
Sept. 10 — Drones launched from Iraq hit the East-West line, forcing the closure now under repair. Sept. 11 — Houthi forces took Mokha and Perim Island, their first foothold on the strait itself. Traffic through Bab el-Mandeb was already down about 15% since the July blockade declaration — about 273 ships a week from July 27 to Aug. 23, per Lloyd's List Intelligence — while oil flows through the southern Red Sea rose to 8.1 million barrels a day in the second quarter as the Hormuz closure pushed Saudi barrels west.
4 earlier issues
- Houthi missiles and drones hit 4 Saudi cities, wounding 73 and halting Aramco's 400,000-barrel-a-day Jazan refinery
- Houthis capture Yemen's Mokha from Saudi-backed forces 46 miles from Bab el-Mandeb
- UpdateHouthi forces captured Mokha and Perim island in the 28-kilometer Bab el-Mandeb strait.
- UpdateA day after the Bab el-Mandeb capture, maritime monitors have recorded no new transit halts
Officers got under two hours of training and 12 minutes per citizenship check before logging a law-enforcement record.
The report. A protected whistleblower report released Monday, Sept. 14, by Chuck Schumer (Sen-D New York) and Alex Padilla (Sen-D California) says DHS fraud officers hunting noncitizen voting under the 'Unlawful Voter Initiative' were ordered to search state portals that require the user to swear he is the voter. The officers work in the Fraud Detection and National Security Directorate, the DHS unit that screens immigration files for fraud.
The warning. In Virginia and Florida they clicked past a warning that opening another voter's record is punishable as computer fraud. Agency lawyers told them they would not be personally liable.
The training. Officers got under two hours of training video and 12 minutes to verify each person's citizenship before entering it in a law-enforcement record. They also warned the voter data was unreliable. The effort has turned up a handful of cases so far.
What the Unlawful Voter Initiative does, and the deadline senators set
- Tens of thousands of people are under investigation after officers were pulled off regular immigration and security caseloads in late August
- In California officers often could not load the state voter site and were told to create TECS records anyway — TECS is the DHS enforcement database — and the report warns the files rest on unchecked data
- Schumer and Padilla gave DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin and U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services Director Joseph Edlow until Sept. 21, 2026 to halt the program, purge the records and answer questions
Quick bites17
22 states, DC and six local governments sue to block counting benefits use against green-card applicants
STATELINEThe DHS policy taking effect Sept 18 lets officers weigh Medicaid, CHIP, SNAP and housing aid in green-card, visa and admission decisions, reversing the cash-assistance-only standard.
What the filings say
- Both suits were filed Monday, Sept. 14 in the Southern District of New York, with the state suit led by New York AG Letitia James.
- DHS estimates more than 950,000 people could drop or skip benefits to avoid immigration penalties.
- DHS estimates states could lose $4.05 billion a year in Medicaid and CHIP money, about $2.2 billion of it in suing states.
Judge Saylor blocks Trump rule limiting stays for foreign students, academics, journalists
THE NEW YORK TIMESU.S. District Judge F. Dennis Saylor IV wrote the administration's reasons for limiting stays for academics and journalists were 'exceptionally weak.'
Mahmoud Khalil sues Columbia alleging deliberate indifference to anti-Palestinian harassment
PBS NEWSHOURThe Title VI suit was filed Monday, Sept. 14 in Manhattan federal court. It says Columbia's inaction led to members being doxed — and to Khalil's 104-day detention in Louisiana after ICE arrested him in March 2025.
Trump announced a Russia-Ukraine energy truce Kyiv calls conditional
WASHINGTON EXAMINERRussia-Ukraine warZelenskyy said Ukraine will halt strikes on Russia only if Russia spares Ukrainian critical infrastructure. Trump blames Ukrainian refinery strikes for US diesel topping $6 a gallon last week.
Diesel backdrop
- The previous US diesel record was $5.82 a gallon in June 2022.
- Russia is a diesel exporter.
- Russia banned diesel exports in July after Ukrainian refinery strikes.
Ongoing13
This story has run 14 times over 20 days, starting Aug 26.
- CIA chief Ratcliffe makes rare Moscow visit
- CIA chief reportedly warned Moscow against a limited Russian attack on NATO
- CIA chief secretly met Russian intelligence officials in Moscow
- UpdateCIA chief told Moscow to end the Ukraine war before Russia’s military and economy worsen
- Russian drone hits ammunition depot near Kyiv, killing 38; four remain missing
- Russia's finance minister returned to the G20 in person for the first time since the Ukraine invasion
- Witkoff and Kushner meet Putin in Moscow Sept. 5, Zelensky in Kyiv Sept. 6, carrying a U.S. proposal to end the war
- UpdatePutin orders 72-hour halt to strikes on Kyiv while Witkoff and Kushner visit, after a three-hour Kremlin meeting
- UpdateWitkoff and Kushner hold first Kyiv talks of the war, agreeing on next steps but no terms; announcement promised in weeks
- UpdateWitkoff says Moscow-Kyiv trip produced 'substantive progress' on scheduling more talks, with no date set and no terms disclosed
- UpdateRussia resumed strikes on Kyiv after the truce, killing 7; Trump and Putin then talked for an hour
- UpdateTrump says Russia's president wants a Ukraine peace deal after their phone call
- UpdateVladimir Putin warned that sending European troops into Ukraine means war with Russia.
- Trump announced a Russia-Ukraine energy truce Kyiv calls conditional — this issue
Russian drone hit Ukrainian locomotive beside Petraeus train after Johnson train left, hurting no one
WASHINGTON EXAMINERUpdateRussia-Ukraine warThe strike hit Yahodyn station on the Polish border on Sunday, Sept. 13, after both trains were evacuated. Ukraine's railway agency said the diplomatic train was the likely target.
On Sept. 14, a Russian drone struck a locomotive pulling a Warsaw-bound train from Kyiv near the Polish border. No one was hurt.
More on the strike
- Petraeus, Johnson and other diplomats were returning from the Yalta European Strategy conference in Kyiv.
- Johnson said 1,700 Ukrainian Railways staff have been killed during the war.
Trump backed a ban on federal elected officials issuing crypto and enforcement by state attorneys general
PBS NEWSHOURThe ban covers the meme coins Trump and Melania launched — Republicans said the ethics language was the price of getting the bill to a pivotal Senate vote Tuesday, Sept. 15.
- Clarity Act would govern a $2.3 trillion crypto market
- Senior GOP aide says Trump accepted about 80% of the ethics proposal from Thom Tillis (Sen-R North Carolina) and Ruben Gallego (Sen-D Arizona)
- Updated text released Monday, Sept. 14 requires divestiture or a blind trust for significant holdings — which would cover the existing Trump and Melania coins
McConnell returns to Senate after three-month absence, restoring Republicans' 12-11 farm bill edge
PBS NEWSHOURMitch McConnell (Sen-R Kentucky) arrived in a wheelchair for his first vote since June 11 — restoring Republicans' 12-11 edge on the Senate Agriculture Committee ahead of its Wednesday, Sept. 16 farm bill markup.
Air Force secretary says US has deployed its first space-based weapon
THE WASHINGTON POSTThe secretary disclosed the deployment without naming the weapon, its program or its orbit — a first public confirmation of a capability the U.S. had never acknowledged. Security experts warned the disclosure could push other governments to put weapons in orbit.
- Disclosure follows years of US warnings that China and Russia have practiced offensive maneuvers in orbit.
Pentagon watchdog says Iran war cost $33.4 billion through June 30, caused munitions shortfall
NBC NEWSUpdateIran warThe inspector general's tally also counts $184 million in damage to U.S. diplomatic sites in Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Donald Trump deny any shortage.
Catch up
On Sept. 14, the Pentagon ordered defense firms onto wartime footing.
More from the report
- At least 30 large U.S. drones were destroyed in the report's Feb. 28 to June 30 window — one of several losses the tally covers.
- The report estimates more than 45% of Patriot interceptors were used.
- CSIS rates 7 munitions at 'critical' inventory levels.
Ongoing1
This story has run 2 times, starting Sep 14.
- Pentagon orders defense industry to wartime footing after US fired thousands of missiles in Iran war
- UpdatePentagon watchdog says Iran war cost $33.4 billion through June 30, caused munitions shortfall — this issue
Putin-linked oligarch paid hundreds of thousands for Trump Jr after-wedding celebration
PROPUBLICARussia-Ukraine warUmar Kremlev, sanctioned by Ukraine in 2024 over ties to Putin, heads the International Boxing Association and paid through its Dubai-based IB Challenger company for the 50-guest, three-day after-wedding party in the Bahamas.
The tab and the reaction
- Kremlev rented a private island at about $100,000 a night and paid $70,000 for fireworks.
- Trump Jr. and Bettina Trump called it a generous gift from a friend; Donald Trump said he never heard of Kremlev.
- Robert Garcia (Rep-D California), the top Democrat on House Oversight, asked what Kremlev got in return.
DHS watchdog says Alligator Alcatraz held 79 detainees in small metal cages
CBS NEWSImmigration enforcementThe January inspection found 28 square feet per detainee, under half Florida's 75-square-foot jail standard, and enclosure stays up to two hours.
What the report found
- Indoor cages measured 18 square feet, below ICE's 37-square-foot minimum for one person.
- Detainees got 1 hour of recreation 3 days a week, below ICE's 6-hour weekly minimum.
- The camp closed in June 2026, so the watchdog closed all recommendations without action.
Justice Department subpoenas Brennan for Oct. 15 testimony in Florida grand conspiracy probe
NBC NEWSSigned by prosecutor Joe diGenova on the day he quit, it names former CIA Director John Brennan a subject in Florida while he remains a target in the D.C. probe over 2023 congressional testimony. The Florida probe is examining whether former officials broke the law in the 2016 Trump-Russia investigation. The testimony at issue dates to 2023 — near the five-year federal limit on false-statement charges.
Brennan's lawyers asked Judge Jia Cobb on Monday, Sept. 14 for a preservation order to support a vindictive-prosecution defense.
White House says pardon brokers waste money, Trump doesn't know them
FOX NEWSUpdateSpokesperson Lauren Bis said Monday, Sept. 14 that reviews run through White House counsel, DOJ and pardon czar Alice Johnson. 60 Minutes had sent a convicted felon undercover to meet self-described pardon brokers, who offered to secure a Trump pardon for fees as high as $300,000. Paying an official for a pardon is bribery; charging a client to lobby for one is generally legal — the line the brokers worked.
On Sept. 14, hidden-camera 60 Minutes footage showed brokers offering to secure a Trump pardon for clients paying large fees — the denial answers that reporting.
Democratic state parties will train 10,000 volunteers to monitor polls in 57 states and territories
PBS NEWSHOUR2026 midtermsOrganizers aim to cover about a quarter of polling places in competitive districts, with volunteers in blue vests.
The program
- Volunteers are trained to observe and report problems to election officials and party lawyers.
- Organizers describe the visible presence as a counter to intimidation at poll sites.
Trump calls AI takeover fears a hoax in speakerphone call with Nvidia CEO
NBC NEWSJensen Huang took the call during his All-In Summit interview in Los Angeles on Monday, Sept. 14, where Trump called data centers the oil of the next 20 to 25 years.
What else was said
- Trump also called data centers bigger than the internet while urging people to act prudently.
- Trump suggested people raising AI fears serve political interests or China.
- Huang praised the Anthropic whistleblower's courage while calling doom predictions not grounded in science.
- Beijing's foreign ministry called the Anthropic slowdown proposal 'fearmongering' on Monday, Sept. 14 — spokesman Guo Jiakun said U.S. chip curbs would harm global AI rules. Trump and Xi Jinping discuss AI on Sept. 24.
Kennedy Center board will vote Tuesday, Sept. 15 on 10 Trump name options or closure
ABC NEWSUpdateThe vote offers ten naming options plus a second resolution to close the main building immediately as unsafe — the board's answer to filings warning of fiscal collapse within weeks, which say Trump is unlikely to lead a rescue without his name restored. A judge ruled the 2025 takeover and renaming illegal in May and ordered the name off the facade; ticket sales and donations have fallen since.
Catch up
On September 14, Kennedy Center leaders warned of certain financial collapse within weeks. Internal papers said adding Trump's name might be the only way to avoid bankruptcy and closure on September 15.
- $285 million renovation includes $257 million Congress already appropriated; board says Trump would raise $100 million more.
- Second resolution would close the main building immediately as unsafe, which Joyce Beatty (Rep-D Ohio) says misstates consultants' findings.
- Board voted 23-3 last month to close the facility for two years.
Ongoing2
This story has run 3 times over 9 days, starting Sep 6.
- Part of the Kennedy Center grand foyer ceiling collapsed during Sept. 4 storms, no injuries
- Kennedy Center warns of 'certain financial collapse' within weeks and closure as soon as Tuesday, Sept. 15
- UpdateKennedy Center board will vote Tuesday, Sept. 15 on 10 Trump name options or closure — this issue
Chart · pipeline render▲ label over markThe renovation budget vs. the money attached to the name
CDC counts only NCHS-listed measles deaths, showing zero for 2026
NBC NEWSUpdatePennsylvania has 3 measles-linked deaths and 693 cases as of Monday, Sept. 14, while the CDC — which switched its public tally to the narrower NCHS method on Sept. 4 — lists zero deaths for 2026. NCHS counts only deaths where a filed death certificate names measles as the underlying cause, a coding process that lags state reports by months.
Catch up
On September 14, Pennsylvania reported its third measles-linked death of the year, an unvaccinated 40-year-old woman who died of probable complications.
More from the outbreak
- The woman was 40, unvaccinated, and used oxygen around the clock for COPD and asthma.
- 99 of the 693 cases were confirmed in the past week.
- Only 4 cases in the outbreak were in vaccinated people.
Ongoing3
This story has run 4 times over 18 days, starting Aug 28.
- Pennsylvania reports 2 measles-associated deaths, its first in 35 years, as coroner disputes infant case
- CDC leaves two Pennsylvania measles deaths out of its national count
- Unvaccinated 40-year-old Pennsylvania woman dies of measles complications, third death tied to outbreak
- UpdateCDC counts only NCHS-listed measles deaths, showing zero for 2026 — this issue
Elections22 races
The midterms · 49 days out · November 3, 2026
D or R take the House / Senate?
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 87%, Kalshi 86%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 54%, Kalshi 53%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.
No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only
Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.
- two venues, priced separately
- shaded = how far apart they are
- 50% — control flips here
- where it stood 7 days ago
- the last 7 days, on its own scale
- week panel: one line a party
The week panel draws one line per party, crossing where control does. Only the Democratic line is a traded price: the Republicanline is its arithmetic complement, the same mirror the bar’s other half is, and not a second market agreeing with the first. The shading around each line is how far apart the two venues are.
Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.
The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 1.0pp gap / 1.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.
Who is defending the House and the Senate is sourced, not remembered — House, 2026-07-23 issue: the NDAA passed “216-212, with six Democrats joining a unified Republican majority.”; Senate, 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.”
Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
| Day | U.S. House · Polymarket | U.S. House · Kalshi | U.S. Senate · Polymarket | U.S. Senate · Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days ago | 88% | 85% | 53% | 48% |
| 6 days ago | 87% | 85% | 53% | 47% |
| 5 days ago | 88% | 86% | 53% | 48% |
| 4 days ago | 87% | 86% | 54% | 49% |
| 3 days ago | 87% | 85% | 53% | 49% |
| 2 days ago | 88% | 86% | 54% | 49% |
| yesterday | 87% | 86% | 54% | 52% |
| today | 87% | 86% | 54% | 53% |
3 closest races
aaNevada governorLombardo vs. FordFord49.5%Lombardo53.5%books split
POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election
Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).
Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the only race here where the two venues do not agree on who is ahead, but no race here has moved more this week: it is down about nine points.
The books name different leaders
Nevada governor
Each line is one book’s lead — the gap between the two candidates, signed. Zero is a tie, and the two venues are on opposite sides of it.
Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 5.0ppNevada governor. Lead in percentage points, positive to Joe Lombardo. Kalshi: Lombardo ahead by 8 points. Polymarket: Ford ahead by 1 point. Every day is in the table below.
today
- Lombardo+8%Kalshi
- Ford+1%Polymarket
- Lombardo48.5%Polymarket
- Lombardo53.5%Kalshi
- Ford49.5%Polymarket
- Ford45.5%Kalshi
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. The lead is the gap between the two, in points. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
The lead is one candidate’s price minus the other’s, at the same venue on the same day — never one book’s Tuesday against the other’s Thursday. It is drawn only where a venue priced both candidates, so a line starts late rather than being stretched across days it was never quoted over.
A day inside a tenth of a point is printed as levelrather than being rounded onto somebody’s side: on a chart whose whole subject is who is in front, a dead heat shown as a win is the one error that cannot be recovered from the drawing.
The markets: Joe Lombardo Polymarket, Kalshi · Aaron Ford Polymarket, Kalshi
Every price behind the chart, and the lead it produces. Nevada governor, snapshot Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT. Day Lombardo · Polymarket Ford · Polymarket Lead · Polymarket Lombardo · Kalshi Ford · Kalshi Lead · Kalshi 7 days ago 59.5% 40.5% Lombardo +19% 61.0% 40.0% Lombardo +21% 6 days ago 57.0% 41.5% Lombardo +15.5% 62.0% 40.0% Lombardo +22% 5 days ago 54.0% 44.5% Lombardo +9.5% 56.0% 43.0% Lombardo +13% 4 days ago 43.0% 47.5% Ford +4.5% 55.0% 44.0% Lombardo +11% 3 days ago 51.0% 49.0% Lombardo +2% 55.0% 45.0% Lombardo +10% 2 days ago 48.0% 50.0% Ford +2% 56.0% 45.0% Lombardo +11% yesterday 48.5% 49.5% Ford +1% 54.0% 46.0% Lombardo +8% today 48.5% 49.5% Ford +1% 53.5% 45.5% Lombardo +8% tTexas Senate
POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election
James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).
A dead heat — the two sides are priced within four points of each other, after the Democratic side gained about three points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Texas Senate
Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 52.5%, Kalshi 51.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 47.5%, Kalshi 49.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: James Talarico 52% · Ken Paxton 49%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
James Talarico (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$536K50.5%Kalshi5.0M contracts · 51%/52%47.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move+2.0ppKen Paxton (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$701K50.5%Kalshi6.9M contracts · 49%/50%53.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-3.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas Senate, snapshot Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT. Day James Talarico · Polymarket James Talarico · Kalshi Ken Paxton · Polymarket Ken Paxton · Kalshi 7 days ago 50.5% 47.0% 50.5% 53.0% 6 days ago 51.0% 50.0% 49.5% 51.0% 5 days ago 51.5% 51.0% 48.5% 51.0% 4 days ago 51.5% 51.0% 48.5% 50.0% 3 days ago 49.5% 51.0% 49.5% 51.0% 2 days ago 52.5% 51.0% 48.5% 50.0% yesterday 52.5% 52.0% 47.5% 50.0% today 52.5% 51.5% 47.5% 49.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
xOhio Senate
POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election
Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).
A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Ohio Senate
Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 53.5%, Kalshi 53.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 46.5%, Kalshi 46.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Sherrod Brown 54% · Jon Husted 46%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Sherrod Brown (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$193K54.5%Kalshi1.6M contracts · 53%/54%53.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-1.0ppJon Husted (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$139K45.5%Kalshi1.6M contracts · 46%/47%48.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio Senate, snapshot Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT. Day Sherrod Brown · Polymarket Sherrod Brown · Kalshi Jon Husted · Polymarket Jon Husted · Kalshi 7 days ago 54.5% 53.0% 45.5% 48.0% 6 days ago 51.5% 51.0% 48.5% 50.0% 5 days ago 51.5% 53.0% 47.5% 49.0% 4 days ago 51.5% 53.0% 48.5% 48.0% 3 days ago 51.5% 53.0% 47.0% 47.0% 2 days ago 53.5% 52.0% 46.5% 48.0% yesterday 53.5% 54.0% 46.5% 47.0% today 53.5% 53.5% 46.5% 46.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
The other 19 races
Senate8 of 10
uAlaska Senate
POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election
Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).
A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Alaska Senate
Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 66.5%, Kalshi 67.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 33.5%, Kalshi 35.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Mary Peltola 67% · Dan Sullivan 34%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Mary Peltola (D)7 days agoPolymarket$263K63.5%Kalshi89.8K contracts · 67%/68%65.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+3.0ppDan Sullivan (R)7 days agoPolymarket$149K36%Kalshi75.8K contracts · 34%/36%37%venue gap1.0pp7-day move-2.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska Senate, snapshot Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT. Day Mary Peltola · Polymarket Mary Peltola · Kalshi Dan Sullivan · Polymarket Dan Sullivan · Kalshi 7 days ago 63.5% 65.0% 36.0% 37% 6 days ago 66.5% 66.0% 34.0% 37% 5 days ago 66.5% 65.0% 34.0% 37% 4 days ago 67.5% 66.0% 33.5% 37% 3 days ago 67.5% 67.0% 33.5% 37% 2 days ago 66.5% 68.0% 33.5% 37% yesterday 66.5% 68.0% 33.5% 37% today 66.5% 67.5% 33.5% 35% acGeorgia Senate
POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election
Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia Senate
Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.4pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 93.50%, Kalshi 93.65%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 6.40%, Kalshi 6.75%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.4pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jon Ossoff 94% · Mike Collins 6.7%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jon Ossoff (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$53.3K92.5%Kalshi382K contracts · 94%/94%93.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+1.0ppMike Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$79.3K6.75%Kalshi898K contracts · 6.5%/7.0%7.80%venue gap1.0pp7-day move-0.4ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia Senate, snapshot Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT. Day Jon Ossoff · Polymarket Jon Ossoff · Kalshi Mike Collins · Polymarket Mike Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 92.5% 93.00% 6.75% 7.80% 6 days ago 92.5% 92.30% 8.00% 7.70% 5 days ago 91.5% 92.30% 7.60% 7.80% 4 days ago 92.5% 92.30% 7.10% 7.90% 3 days ago 92.5% 92.30% 7.50% 6.80% 2 days ago 93.5% 93.40% 6.45% 7.50% yesterday 93.5% 93.50% 6.40% 7.00% today 93.5% 93.65% 6.40% 6.75% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
vIowa Senate
POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election
Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).
An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead after losing about seven points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Iowa Senate
Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 5.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 56.5%, Kalshi 61.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 42.5%, Kalshi 38.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 5.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Ashley Hinson 61% · Josh Turek 39%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Ashley Hinson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$158K65.5%Kalshi1.1M contracts · 61%/62%66.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-9.0ppJosh Turek (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$144K34.5%Kalshi1.6M contracts · 38%/39%36.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+8.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa Senate, snapshot Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT. Day Ashley Hinson · Polymarket Ashley Hinson · Kalshi Josh Turek · Polymarket Josh Turek · Kalshi 7 days ago 65.5% 66.0% 34.5% 36.0% 6 days ago 66.0% 66.0% 34.5% 36.0% 5 days ago 61.0% 67.0% 39.5% 34.0% 4 days ago 61.0% 62.0% 39.0% 40.0% 3 days ago 60.5% 62.0% 39.5% 38.0% 2 days ago 56.5% 61.0% 42.5% 39.0% yesterday 56.5% 62.0% 42.5% 39.0% today 56.5% 61.5% 42.5% 38.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
sMaine Senate
POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election
Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).
Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Maine Senate
Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 4.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 70.5%, Kalshi 66.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 29.5%, Kalshi 34.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Troy Jackson 67% · Susan Collins 33%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Troy Jackson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$804K71.5%Kalshi2.6M contracts · 66%/67%68.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move-1.0ppSusan Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$540K28.5%Kalshi2.8M contracts · 33%/35%33.0%venue gap4.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Maine Senate, snapshot Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT. Day Troy Jackson · Polymarket Troy Jackson · Kalshi Susan Collins · Polymarket Susan Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 71.5% 68.0% 28.5% 33% 6 days ago 70.5% 68.0% 28.5% 33% 5 days ago 70.5% 68.0% 28.5% 33% 4 days ago 70.5% 68.0% 29.5% 33% 3 days ago 70.5% 68.0% 29.5% 33% 2 days ago 70.5% 66.0% 29.5% 33% yesterday 70.5% 67.0% 29.5% 35% today 70.5% 66.5% 29.5% 34% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
wMichigan Senate
POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election
Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).
The Democratic side holds a clear lead after the Republican side gained about four points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan Senate
Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 61.5%, Kalshi 61.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 39.5%, Kalshi 39.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 62% · Mike Rogers 40%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Abdul El-Sayed (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$451K65%Kalshi1.4M contracts · 61%/62%64%venue gap1.0pp7-day move-3.5ppMike Rogers (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$342K35%Kalshi2.1M contracts · 39%/40%37%venue gap2.0pp7-day move+4.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan Senate, snapshot Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT. Day Abdul El-Sayed · Polymarket Abdul El-Sayed · Kalshi Mike Rogers · Polymarket Mike Rogers · Kalshi 7 days ago 65.0% 64.0% 35.0% 37.0% 6 days ago 64.5% 63.0% 36.5% 36.0% 5 days ago 62.5% 64.0% 37.0% 37.0% 4 days ago 62.5% 63.0% 37.0% 40.0% 3 days ago 59.5% 63.0% 40.0% 37.0% 2 days ago 61.5% 61.0% 39.5% 41.0% yesterday 61.5% 62.0% 39.5% 39.0% today 61.5% 61.5% 39.5% 39.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
adNebraska Senate
POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election
Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead after Osborn gained about three points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Nebraska Senate
Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 67.5%, Kalshi 69.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 32.5%, Kalshi 29.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Pete Ricketts 69% · Dan Osborn 30%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Pete Ricketts (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$114K68.5%Kalshi431K contracts · 69%/70%74.0%venue gap5.5pp7-day move-1.0ppDan Osborn (I)7 days agoPolymarket$68.4K31%Kalshi503K contracts · 29%/30%25%venue gap6.0pp7-day move+1.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nebraska Senate, snapshot Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT. Day Pete Ricketts · Polymarket Pete Ricketts · Kalshi Dan Osborn · Polymarket Dan Osborn · Kalshi 7 days ago 68.5% 74.0% 31.0% 25.0% 6 days ago 68.5% 73.0% 30.5% 27.0% 5 days ago 68.5% 71.0% 30.5% 27.0% 4 days ago 65.0% 71.0% 31.5% 27.0% 3 days ago 66.5% 70.0% 31.5% 29.0% 2 days ago 67.5% 70.0% 32.5% 27.0% yesterday 67.5% 70.0% 32.5% 30.0% today 67.5% 69.5% 32.5% 29.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
aeNew Hampshire Senate
POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election
Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
New Hampshire Senate
Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 83.5%, Kalshi 82.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 15.5%, Kalshi 17.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Chris Pappas 83% · John E. Sununu 17%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Chris Pappas (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$70.7K83%Kalshi141K contracts · 82%/83%83%venue gap0.0pp7-day move+0.5ppJohn E. Sununu (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$33.2K17.5%Kalshi286K contracts · 17%/18%18.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. New Hampshire Senate, snapshot Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT. Day Chris Pappas · Polymarket Chris Pappas · Kalshi John E. Sununu · Polymarket John E. Sununu · Kalshi 7 days ago 83.0% 83.0% 17.5% 18.0% 6 days ago 81.0% 85.0% 19.0% 17.0% 5 days ago 82.5% 84.0% 17.5% 16.0% 4 days ago 83.5% 85.0% 14.5% 15.0% 3 days ago 84.5% 85.0% 15.0% 17.0% 2 days ago 83.5% 85.0% 15.5% 16.0% yesterday 83.5% 82.0% 15.5% 18.0% today 83.5% 82.5% 15.5% 17.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
abNorth Carolina Senate
POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election
Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
North Carolina Senate
Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.4pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 91.50%, Kalshi 91.95%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 8.5%, Kalshi 8.2%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.4pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Roy Cooper 92% · Michael Whatley 8.2%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Roy Cooper (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$47.2K91.5%Kalshi1.3M contracts · 92%/92%91.3%venue gap0.2pp7-day move0.0ppMichael Whatley (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$65.9K8.5%Kalshi740K contracts · 7.7%/8.7%9.2%venue gap0.7pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. North Carolina Senate, snapshot Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT. Day Roy Cooper · Polymarket Roy Cooper · Kalshi Michael Whatley · Polymarket Michael Whatley · Kalshi 7 days ago 91.5% 91.30% 8.5% 9.2% 6 days ago 92.5% 91.00% 8.5% 9.7% 5 days ago 92.5% 90.90% 8.5% 10.0% 4 days ago 92.5% 91.70% 8.5% 9.0% 3 days ago 92.0% 91.20% 9.0% 8.8% 2 days ago 90.5% 92.00% 10.0% 9.0% yesterday 91.5% 92.30% 8.5% 8.8% today 91.5% 91.95% 8.5% 8.2% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
Governors11 of 12
agAlaska governor
POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election
Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).
Wilson holds a clear lead after losing about three points in five days.
Two markets, one question
Alaska governor
Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 26.5%, Kalshi 23.0%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 1.40%, Kalshi 0.45%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 6–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Bernadette Wilson 26% · Tom Begich 0.8%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Bernadette Wilson (R)7 days agoPolymarket$173K26%Kalshi52.5K contracts · 21%/25%—venue gap—7-day move+0.5ppTom Begich (D)7 days agoPolymarket$159K1.35%Kalshi235K contracts · 0.3%/0.6%—venue gap—7-day move+0.1ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska governor, snapshot Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT. Day Bernadette Wilson · Polymarket Bernadette Wilson · Kalshi Tom Begich · Polymarket Tom Begich · Kalshi 7 days ago 26.0% — 1.35% — 6 days ago 27.5% — 1.35% — 5 days ago 27.5% 30% 1.35% 0.10% 4 days ago 27.5% 30% 1.35% 0.10% 3 days ago 27.5% 26% 1.35% 0.10% 2 days ago 26.5% 27% 1.40% 0.30% yesterday 26.5% 24% 1.40% 0.30% today 26.5% 23% 1.40% 0.45% aiArizona governor
POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election
Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Arizona governor
Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 87.0%, Kalshi 87.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 12.5%, Kalshi 12.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Katie Hobbs 87% · Andy Biggs 13%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Katie Hobbs (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$32.3K86.5%Kalshi330K contracts · 87%/88%87.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+0.5ppAndy Biggs (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$36.7K13.5%Kalshi257K contracts · 12%/13%13.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Arizona governor, snapshot Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT. Day Katie Hobbs · Polymarket Katie Hobbs · Kalshi Andy Biggs · Polymarket Andy Biggs · Kalshi 7 days ago 86.5% 87.0% 13.5% 13.0% 6 days ago 86.5% 87.0% 13.5% 13.0% 5 days ago 86.5% 87.0% 13.5% 15.0% 4 days ago 86.5% 87.0% 12.5% 14.0% 3 days ago 87.0% 87.0% 12.5% 14.0% 2 days ago 87.0% 87.0% 12.5% 13.0% yesterday 87.0% 88.0% 12.5% 12.0% today 87.0% 87.5% 12.5% 12.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
amFlorida governor
POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election
Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).
Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Florida governor
Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 81.5%, Kalshi 80.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 18.5%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Byron Donalds 81% · David Jolly 20%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Byron Donalds (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$29.9K82.5%Kalshi846K contracts · 80%/81%82.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.0ppDavid Jolly (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$33.3K18.5%Kalshi389K contracts · 20%/21%18.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Florida governor, snapshot Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT. Day Byron Donalds · Polymarket Byron Donalds · Kalshi David Jolly · Polymarket David Jolly · Kalshi 7 days ago 82.5% 82.0% 18.5% 18.0% 6 days ago 81.5% 82.0% 19.0% 19.0% 5 days ago 81.5% 82.0% 19.0% 20.0% 4 days ago 81.5% 80.0% 18.5% 21.0% 3 days ago 81.0% 80.0% 19.0% 21.0% 2 days ago 81.5% 80.0% 18.5% 20.0% yesterday 81.5% 81.0% 18.5% 21.0% today 81.5% 80.5% 18.5% 20.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
zGeorgia governor
POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).
Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia governor
Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 58.0%, Kalshi 55.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 42.5%, Kalshi 42.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Keisha Lance Bottoms 56% · Rick Jackson 43%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$36.4K56.5%Kalshi305K contracts · 55%/56%56.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+1.5ppRick Jackson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$40.8K43.5%Kalshi415K contracts · 42%/43%44.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia governor, snapshot Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT. Day Keisha Lance Bottoms · Polymarket Keisha Lance Bottoms · Kalshi Rick Jackson · Polymarket Rick Jackson · Kalshi 7 days ago 56.5% 56.0% 43.5% 44.0% 6 days ago 56.5% 57.0% 42.5% 44.0% 5 days ago 56.5% 56.0% 42.0% 44.0% 4 days ago 57.0% 57.0% 42.5% 44.0% 3 days ago 57.0% 56.0% 43.5% 45.0% 2 days ago 58.0% 54.0% 42.5% 46.0% yesterday 58.0% 56.0% 42.5% 43.0% today 58.0% 55.5% 42.5% 42.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
afIowa governor
POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election
Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Iowa governor
Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 77.0%, Kalshi 77.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 23.5%, Kalshi 22.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Rob Sand 77% · Zach Lahn 23%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Rob Sand (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$33.9K75.5%Kalshi334K contracts · 77%/78%77.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+1.5ppZach Lahn (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$45.4K23.5%Kalshi332K contracts · 22%/23%24.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa governor, snapshot Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT. Day Rob Sand · Polymarket Rob Sand · Kalshi Zach Lahn · Polymarket Zach Lahn · Kalshi 7 days ago 75.5% 77.0% 23.5% 24.0% 6 days ago 76.5% 78.0% 24.5% 22.0% 5 days ago 77.0% 78.0% 23.0% 22.0% 4 days ago 77.0% 79.0% 23.5% 24.0% 3 days ago 76.5% 78.0% 23.5% 22.0% 2 days ago 77.0% 78.0% 23.5% 24.0% yesterday 77.0% 77.0% 23.5% 23.0% today 77.0% 77.5% 23.5% 22.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
ahMichigan governor
POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election
Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan governor
Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 92.5%, Kalshi 90.9%; John James (R): Polymarket 7.0%, Kalshi 9.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jocelyn Benson 92% · John James 8.2%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jocelyn Benson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$50.0K92%Kalshi74.0K contracts · 89%/93%90%venue gap2.0pp7-day move+0.5ppJohn James (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$156K8.5%Kalshi135K contracts · 9.1%/9.9%12.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move-1.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan governor, snapshot Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT. Day Jocelyn Benson · Polymarket Jocelyn Benson · Kalshi John James · Polymarket John James · Kalshi 7 days ago 92.0% 90.0% 8.5% 12.0% 6 days ago 92.0% 92.9% 8.5% 11.0% 5 days ago 92.5% 88.0% 7.5% 11.0% 4 days ago 92.5% 91.0% 7.0% 12.0% 3 days ago 92.5% 91.0% 6.5% 9.1% 2 days ago 92.5% 92.6% 7.0% 12.0% yesterday 92.5% 92.8% 7.0% 12.0% today 92.5% 90.9% 7.0% 9.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
akNew York governor
POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election
Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
New York governor
Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 94.5%, Kalshi 92.0%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 6.5%, Kalshi 8.1%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Kathy Hochul 92% · Bruce Blakeman 8.0%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Kathy Hochul (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$49.9K94.5%Kalshi351K contracts · 92%/92%92.2%venue gap2.3pp7-day move0.0ppBruce Blakeman (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$65.3K5.5%Kalshi1.0M contracts · 7.9%/8.3%9.4%venue gap3.9pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. New York governor, snapshot Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT. Day Kathy Hochul · Polymarket Kathy Hochul · Kalshi Bruce Blakeman · Polymarket Bruce Blakeman · Kalshi 7 days ago 94.5% 92.2% 5.5% 9.4% 6 days ago 94.5% 92.1% 5.5% 8.7% 5 days ago 94.5% 92.2% 6.5% 9.3% 4 days ago 94.5% 92.2% 6.5% 8.7% 3 days ago 94.5% 92.1% 6.5% 9.3% 2 days ago 94.5% 92.2% 6.5% 8.9% yesterday 94.5% 92.3% 6.5% 8.5% today 94.5% 92.0% 6.5% 8.1% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
rOhio governor
POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election
Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).
Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Ohio governor
Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 54.5%, Kalshi 54.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 45.0%, Kalshi 46.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Amy Acton 55% · Vivek Ramaswamy 46%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Amy Acton (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$92.1K55.5%Kalshi783K contracts · 54%/55%55.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.0ppVivek Ramaswamy (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$109K45.5%Kalshi827K contracts · 46%/47%47.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio governor, snapshot Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT. Day Amy Acton · Polymarket Amy Acton · Kalshi Vivek Ramaswamy · Polymarket Vivek Ramaswamy · Kalshi 7 days ago 55.5% 55.0% 45.5% 47.0% 6 days ago 55.5% 57.0% 45.5% 44.0% 5 days ago 55.5% 57.0% 45.5% 45.0% 4 days ago 55.5% 56.0% 43.5% 45.0% 3 days ago 55.5% 57.0% 45.0% 44.0% 2 days ago 54.5% 57.0% 45.0% 47.0% yesterday 54.5% 55.0% 45.5% 47.0% today 54.5% 54.5% 45.0% 46.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
alPennsylvania governor
POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election
Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Pennsylvania governor
Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.1pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 96.75%, Kalshi 96.45%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.5%, Kalshi 3.6%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.1pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Josh Shapiro 96% · Stacy Garrity 3.5%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Josh Shapiro (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$7.5K96.4%Kalshi99.5K contracts · 96%/97%—venue gap—7-day move+0.4ppStacy Garrity (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$42.0K1.8%Kalshi395K contracts · 3.0%/4.2%4.0%venue gap2.2pp7-day move+0.7ppEvery sample behind the chart. Pennsylvania governor, snapshot Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT. Day Josh Shapiro · Polymarket Josh Shapiro · Kalshi Stacy Garrity · Polymarket Stacy Garrity · Kalshi 7 days ago 96.40% — 1.80% 4.0% 6 days ago 96.80% 97.50% 2.25% 2.6% 5 days ago 97.10% 96.80% 2.30% 4.5% 4 days ago 96.85% 95.50% 2.50% 4.2% 3 days ago 97.10% 95.10% 2.30% 3.3% 2 days ago 96.90% 97.50% 2.25% 3.4% yesterday 96.75% 97.10% 2.50% 3.3% today 96.75% 96.45% 2.50% 3.6% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
ajTexas governor
POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election
Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Texas governor
Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 83.5%, Kalshi 81.5%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 16.0%, Kalshi 17.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Greg Abbott 82% · Gina Hinojosa 17%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Greg Abbott (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$42.8K82.55%Kalshi185K contracts · 81%/82%83.00%venue gap0.4pp7-day move+0.9ppGina Hinojosa (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$56.4K18%Kalshi697K contracts · 17%/18%16%venue gap2.0pp7-day move-2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas governor, snapshot Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT. Day Greg Abbott · Polymarket Greg Abbott · Kalshi Gina Hinojosa · Polymarket Gina Hinojosa · Kalshi 7 days ago 82.55% 83.0% 18.0% 16.0% 6 days ago 82.10% 82.0% 18.0% 18.0% 5 days ago 80.85% 84.0% 18.0% 18.0% 4 days ago 81.00% 83.0% 19.0% 19.0% 3 days ago 81.10% 82.0% 18.5% 19.0% 2 days ago 83.10% 83.0% 16.5% 19.0% yesterday 83.50% 82.0% 16.0% 18.0% today 83.50% 81.5% 16.0% 17.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
yWisconsin governor
POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election
David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).
An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Wisconsin governor
Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 83.5%, Kalshi 80.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 16.5%, Kalshi 19.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: David Crowley 82% · Tom Tiffany 19%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
David Crowley (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$315K83.5%Kalshi462K contracts · 80%/81%81.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move0.0ppTom Tiffany (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$272K17.5%Kalshi617K contracts · 19%/20%20.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Wisconsin governor, snapshot Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT. Day David Crowley · Polymarket David Crowley · Kalshi Tom Tiffany · Polymarket Tom Tiffany · Kalshi 7 days ago 83.5% 81.0% 17.5% 20.0% 6 days ago 82.5% 80.0% 17.5% 20.0% 5 days ago 82.5% 82.0% 17.5% 19.0% 4 days ago 82.5% 81.0% 17.5% 20.0% 3 days ago 82.5% 81.0% 17.5% 20.0% 2 days ago 83.5% 81.0% 15.5% 19.0% yesterday 83.5% 80.0% 16.5% 20.0% today 83.5% 80.5% 16.5% 19.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.
