Political Guyentist
Political Guyentist

Tuesday

1usUpdate2026 midterms

Supreme Court leaves Trump's USPS mail-ballot rules blocked for Nov. 3 midterms in apparent 7-2 vote

Hours earlier, Judge Carl Nichols, a Trump appointee, separately blocked the rule, finding no law grants USPS its key powers.

- Aug. 26 — USPS finished the rule despite a nationwide order; the judge let it publish while the Supreme Court lifted an earlier block 6-3 as premature. - Aug. 27 — A Boston judge lifted the injunction; 24 states and D.C. sued hours later, arguing USPS lacks authority and voters would be disenfranchised. - Aug. 29 — The judge blocked USPS from rejecting ballots for 14 days, found no fraud evidence, and set a Sept. 3 hearing; DOJ appealed. - Sept. 10 — States asked the Supreme Court to keep the ballot requirements blocked. - Sept. 11 — The 1st Circuit kept the rule blocked 3-0; 7 Republican officials opposed a pre-November start. - Sept. 12 — The Supreme Court took up the administration's emergency bid to enforce the rule before November.

ContextThe Postal Service issued the rule on Aug. 21, 2026, and courts had already stopped it once: Judge Indira Talwani in Boston blocked it on Friday, Sept. 4, and the 1st U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals left that block standing on Sept. 10. Monday's order was the administration's third trip to the Supreme Court's emergency docket — fast-track requests decided without full briefing or argument — over the mail-voting plan. Timing is the crux. Alabama, North Carolina and Wisconsin are already mailing ballots, North Carolina since Sept. 4, and the Postal Service itself says every state must send military and overseas ballots 45 days before Election Day, Nov. 3. Nichols wrote that the rule exceeds 'any conception of the outer bounds' of Postal Service authority and would 'create even more confusion and misunderstanding.' Solicitor General D. John Sauer called mail-voting fraud a 'particularly pernicious species of fraud,' but the administration produced no evidence of widespread fraud, and Trump voted by mail in Florida this year. Kavanaugh's objection was about the calendar, not the power, which leaves room for a later version with more lead time.

CBS NEWS12 sources

2usUpdate2026 midterms

10-year Treasury yield hit 5.014% Monday, Sept. 14, first time since October 2023

It faded to 4.961% by mid-afternoon as Brent crude hit $108.50 ahead of the Fed decision Wednesday, Sept. 16.

- Sept. 14 — UK benchmark gas hit 208.73 pence per therm, its highest since December 2022. - Sept. 9 — Treasury announced a buyback of up to $6 billion in long-dated bonds; long yields rose anyway. - February — The CBO projected the 10-year rate would take at least 30 years to pass 4.4%; it hit 5% seven months later, economist Jessica Riedl noted.

ContextThat rate sets mortgage prices too — on a median $417,700 home, Monday's 7.17% lifts the monthly payment to $2,261, $195 more than a year ago. Washington borrows at that rate on about $37.6 trillion in debt — roughly 122% of GDP, or more than $110,000 a person. In February the Congressional Budget Office projected it would take at least 30 years for the 10-year to pass 4.4%. It took seven months.

THE GUARDIAN12 sources

3usUpdateIran war

Houthis seize two more Red Sea islands as Saudi pipeline faces 3-to-5-week outage

Riyadh had rerouted about 4 million barrels a day through the line; Yanbu holds 5 to 7 days of export stocks.

Sept. 10 — Drones launched from Iraq hit the East-West line, forcing the closure now under repair. Sept. 11 — Houthi forces took Mokha and Perim Island, their first foothold on the strait itself. Traffic through Bab el-Mandeb was already down about 15% since the July blockade declaration — about 273 ships a week from July 27 to Aug. 23, per Lloyd's List Intelligence — while oil flows through the southern Red Sea rose to 8.1 million barrels a day in the second quarter as the Hormuz closure pushed Saudi barrels west.

ContextComparable strikes repaired fast: drones hit this same line at Afif on May 14, 2019 and Aramco restarted it within days — against the three-to-five-week estimate now. The Sept. 14, 2019 Abqaiq attack took 5.7 million barrels a day offline; Brent settled up 14.6% at $69.02, then unwound in two weeks while Hormuz stayed open. This time Hormuz is nearly closed — it carried about 21 million barrels a day before the war (Kpler, Sept. 3). Aramco gave a timeline in 72 hours then; it has given none now.

PBS NEWSHOUR11 sources

4usImmigration enforcement

Whistleblower says DHS told hundreds of officers to lie to search state voter rolls

Officers got under two hours of training and 12 minutes per citizenship check before logging a law-enforcement record.

What the Unlawful Voter Initiative does, and the deadline senators set: Tens of thousands of people are under investigation after officers were pulled off regular immigration and security caseloads in late August In California officers often could not load the state voter site and were told to create TECS records anyway — TECS is the DHS enforcement database — and the report warns the files rest on unchecked data Schumer and Padilla gave DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin and U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services Director Joseph Edlow until Sept. 21, 2026 to halt the program, purge the records and answer questions

ContextSo far the effort has produced a handful of cases, and state checks have landed in the same range. Georgia's Republican-run audit in Oct. 2024 found 20 noncitizens among 8.2 million registrants, and 9 had ever voted. Ohio's Republican secretary of state, Frank LaRose, referred 1,084 cases in Nov. 2025; 167 apparent ballots turned up, out of 27.5 million cast in the state since 2018. Utah ran 71,000 records in 2025 through SAVE, the federal system that checks a name against immigration records, and confirmed 27 noncitizens after 5,600 initial flags turned out to be citizens.

THE GUARDIAN6 sources

Tuesday · The daily brief

Sep 152026

4 leads39 briefs19 min

BoardScroll

Executive summary4 stories

News news4

  1. Supreme Court leaves Trump's USPS mail-ballot rules blocked for Nov. 3 midterms in apparent 7-2 voteHours earlier, Judge Carl Nichols, a Trump appointee, separately blocked the rule, finding no law grants USPS its key powers.
  2. 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.014% Monday, Sept. 14, first time since October 2023It faded to 4.961% by mid-afternoon as Brent crude hit $108.50 ahead of the Fed decision Wednesday, Sept. 16.
  3. Houthis seize two more Red Sea islands as Saudi pipeline faces 3-to-5-week outageRiyadh had rerouted about 4 million barrels a day through the line; Yanbu holds 5 to 7 days of export stocks.
  4. Whistleblower says DHS told hundreds of officers to lie to search state voter rollsOfficers got under two hours of training and 12 minutes per citizenship check before logging a law-enforcement record.

News news4 stories

Ongoing7 earlier updates20 days

This story has run 8 times over 20 days, starting Aug 26.

  1. USPS violated a court order to finalize Trump’s mail-ballot rule; judge allows publication
  2. Judge clears Trump’s USPS mail-ballot rule; 24 states and D.C. sue hours later
  3. UpdateJudge blocks USPS from rejecting noncompliant mail ballots for 14 days; DOJ appeals
  4. UpdateMissouri asks the Supreme Court to reinstate its 7-1 congressional map three days before the ballot deadline
  5. Kavanaugh leaves Missouri's 6-2 map in place; hours later a federal judge orders the state to run the 7-1 map
  6. UpdateStates ask Supreme Court to keep new USPS ballot requirements blocked
  7. Update3-0 First Circuit keeps Trump mail-ballot rule blocked as 7 Republican officials oppose pre-November start
  8. UpdateSupreme Court leaves Trump's USPS mail-ballot rules blocked for Nov. 3 midterms in apparent 7-2 vote — this issue
CBS NEWSUpdate2026 midterms

Supreme Court leaves Trump's USPS mail-ballot rules blocked for Nov. 3 midterms in apparent 7-2 vote

Hours earlier, Judge Carl Nichols, a Trump appointee, separately blocked the rule, finding no law grants USPS its key powers.

The Supreme Court on Monday, Sept. 14 rejected the Trump administration's emergency request to enforce new Postal Service mail-ballot rules before the Nov. 3 midterms, in an apparent 7-2 order saying the government is unlikely to win on the merits.

The split. Justices Alito and Thomas dissented. Justice Kavanaugh, joined by Justice Jackson, wrote that the rule may be lawful but that applying it in 2026 would be arbitrary and capricious for lack of time.

The lower court. Hours earlier, a 24-page ruling from Judge Carl Nichols, a Trump appointee, held that no law authorizes the rule's core.

The clock. Ballots are already going out in Alabama, North Carolina and Wisconsin, 50 days before the election.

Catch upwhat happened before · 7 earlier issues
  • Aug. 26 — USPS finished the rule despite a nationwide order; the judge let it publish while the Supreme Court lifted an earlier block 6-3 as premature.
  • Aug. 27 — A Boston judge lifted the injunction; 24 states and D.C. sued hours later, arguing USPS lacks authority and voters would be disenfranchised.
  • Aug. 29 — The judge blocked USPS from rejecting ballots for 14 days, found no fraud evidence, and set a Sept. 3 hearing; DOJ appealed.
  • Sept. 10 — States asked the Supreme Court to keep the ballot requirements blocked.
  • Sept. 11 — The 1st Circuit kept the rule blocked 3-0; 7 Republican officials opposed a pre-November start.
  • Sept. 12 — The Supreme Court took up the administration's emergency bid to enforce the rule before November.
6 earlier issues
What the blocked rule would have requiredStates would have had to upload voter lists to a Postal Service portal to clear ballot mail.2 details
  • States would have had to upload voter lists to a Postal Service portal to clear ballot mail.
  • The Postal Service could refuse ballot mail that failed its standards.
THE GUARDIANUpdate2026 midterms

10-year Treasury yield hit 5.014% Monday, Sept. 14, first time since October 2023

It faded to 4.961% by mid-afternoon as Brent crude hit $108.50 ahead of the Fed decision Wednesday, Sept. 16.

The 10-year Treasury yield (the rate Washington pays to borrow for a decade) rose above 5% Monday, Sept. 14, hitting 5.014% then easing to 4.961% by mid-afternoon. It was only the second time above 5% in 19 years and the first since October 2023, up from a 4% low earlier this year, before the Iran war.

The inflation shock behind the move is the Iran war's oil spike — covered in the Houthis lead above. The average 30-year mortgage rate hit 7.17%, its highest in a year, up from 6.29% a year ago.

What next. The Federal Reserve announces its rate decision Wednesday, Sept. 16. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett warned against hiking this close to an election, though the Fed raised rates four times before the 2022 midterms — the last one six days before Election Day. Economist Douglas Holtz-Eakin said skipping the increase would undercut the Fed's credibility while inflation stays the central challenge.

Currently showing August prices: 0.4% on the month, 3.4% on the year
August prices: 0.4% on the month, 3.4% on the year
Why a hike is priced: August prices climbedThe two readings the story cites, in percent.01234percent0.4%3.4%on the monthon the yearHike oddsabove 80%Source: Axios, Sept. 12, 2026. Odds are market-implied, as reported.
August prices: 0.4% on the month, 3.4% on the year
Chart · pipeline render▲ collapsed plot

2022: the Fed hiked six days before Election Day

The Fed has hiked this close to an election beforeHassett warned against hiking near an election. The 2022 record, as the story states it.Schematic timeline. No rate levels shown.Election Day 2022Four rate hikes in 2022last hikesix daysearlier in 2022A quarter-point increase on Sept. 16, 2026 would be the first hike since July 2023.Source: Axios, Sept. 14, 2026.
Source: Ten-year Treasury yield tops 5% for the first time since 2023POLI
How we got herethe story so far
  • Sept. 14 — UK benchmark gas hit 208.73 pence per therm, its highest since December 2022.
  • Sept. 9 — Treasury announced a buyback of up to $6 billion in long-dated bonds; long yields rose anyway.
  • February — The CBO projected the 10-year rate would take at least 30 years to pass 4.4%; it hit 5% seven months later, economist Jessica Riedl noted.

The print driving it. August prices rose 0.4% on the month and 3.4% on the year, with gains beyond oil — against Trump's 'coming down sharply' claim, flagged by CNN fact-checker Daniel Dale.

Ongoing5 earlier updates6 days

This story has run 6 times over 6 days, starting Sep 9.

  1. Houthi missiles and drones hit 4 Saudi cities, wounding 73 and halting Aramco's 400,000-barrel-a-day Jazan refinery
  2. Houthis capture Yemen's Mokha from Saudi-backed forces 46 miles from Bab el-Mandeb
  3. UpdateHouthi forces captured Mokha and Perim island in the 28-kilometer Bab el-Mandeb strait.
  4. UpdateA day after the Bab el-Mandeb capture, maritime monitors have recorded no new transit halts
  5. UpdateSaudi Arabia shuts Hormuz-bypass pipeline, oil rises more than $3 with 4% of supply at risk
  6. UpdateHouthis seize two more Red Sea islands as Saudi pipeline faces 3-to-5-week outage — this issue
PBS NEWSHOURUpdateIran war

Houthis seize two more Red Sea islands as Saudi pipeline faces 3-to-5-week outage

Riyadh had rerouted about 4 million barrels a day through the line; Yanbu holds 5 to 7 days of export stocks.

Houthi rebels seized Greater and Lesser Hanish on Monday, Sept. 14, tightening their hold over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait (the narrow Red Sea entrance between the Indian Ocean and Suez) days after taking Mokha and Perim Island (Friday, Sept. 11).

Repairs to Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline (the 1,200-km bypass moving Gulf crude to the Red Sea), hit Thursday, Sept. 10 in an attack Riyadh blamed on Iran-backed militias in Iraq, will take three to five weeks, per two regional officials.

The islands. The Hanish group sits 160 km (100 miles) north of the strait, which carries roughly a tenth of global trade. Rebels deployed after hundreds of government-allied forces withdrew; council official Sultan Al-Aradah says those forces are regrouping and will return.

The oil. The line can carry 7 million barrels a day; Riyadh had rerouted about 4 million barrels a day through it, about 4% of global supply. The Strait of Hormuz (the Gulf chokepoint for a fifth of traded oil and gas in peacetime) is moving a fraction of normal traffic — Al Jazeera put flows at 6 to 9 million barrels a day against about 20 million in peacetime. Yanbu holds five to seven days of stocks. Brent crude (the global oil benchmark) settled higher Monday, Sept. 14.

The U.S. An appeal by Mohammed bin Salman (Crown Prince, Saudi Arabia) for U.S. airstrikes was declined, though Centcom (the U.S. command running forces in the Middle East) chief Adm. Brad Cooper met him in Jeddah. Donald Trump said the Houthis called, 'don't want to fight with us' and are 'letting most ships go through.'

The toll. More than 82,000 people have been displaced in Yemen since Tuesday, Sept. 1, per the U.N. migration agency, and more than 2,000 Yemenis have fled to Djibouti. TIME puts deaths in the years-long civil war at 150,000.

What next. The line stays mostly out of service for three to five weeks while withdrawn government-allied forces regroup to return to the battle.

Catch upwhat happened before · 5 earlier issues

Sept. 10 — Drones launched from Iraq hit the East-West line, forcing the closure now under repair. Sept. 11 — Houthi forces took Mokha and Perim Island, their first foothold on the strait itself. Traffic through Bab el-Mandeb was already down about 15% since the July blockade declaration — about 273 ships a week from July 27 to Aug. 23, per Lloyd's List Intelligence — while oil flows through the southern Red Sea rose to 8.1 million barrels a day in the second quarter as the Hormuz closure pushed Saudi barrels west.

4 earlier issues
THE GUARDIANImmigration enforcement

Whistleblower says DHS told hundreds of officers to lie to search state voter rolls

Officers got under two hours of training and 12 minutes per citizenship check before logging a law-enforcement record.

The report. A protected whistleblower report released Monday, Sept. 14, by Chuck Schumer (Sen-D New York) and Alex Padilla (Sen-D California) says DHS fraud officers hunting noncitizen voting under the 'Unlawful Voter Initiative' were ordered to search state portals that require the user to swear he is the voter. The officers work in the Fraud Detection and National Security Directorate, the DHS unit that screens immigration files for fraud.

The warning. In Virginia and Florida they clicked past a warning that opening another voter's record is punishable as computer fraud. Agency lawyers told them they would not be personally liable.

The training. Officers got under two hours of training video and 12 minutes to verify each person's citizenship before entering it in a law-enforcement record. They also warned the voter data was unreliable. The effort has turned up a handful of cases so far.

What the Unlawful Voter Initiative does, and the deadline senators setTens of thousands of people are under investigation after officers were pulled off regular immigration and security caseloads in…3 details
  • Tens of thousands of people are under investigation after officers were pulled off regular immigration and security caseloads in late August
  • In California officers often could not load the state voter site and were told to create TECS records anyway — TECS is the DHS enforcement database — and the report warns the files rest on unchecked data
  • Schumer and Padilla gave DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin and U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services Director Joseph Edlow until Sept. 21, 2026 to halt the program, purge the records and answer questions

Quick bites17

Courts3 bites

  1. 22 states, DC and six local governments sue to block counting benefits use against green-card applicants

    STATELINE

    The DHS policy taking effect Sept 18 lets officers weigh Medicaid, CHIP, SNAP and housing aid in green-card, visa and admission decisions, reversing the cash-assistance-only standard.

    What the filings sayBoth suits were filed Monday, Sept. 14 in the Southern District of New York, with the state suit led by New York AG Letitia James.3 details
    • Both suits were filed Monday, Sept. 14 in the Southern District of New York, with the state suit led by New York AG Letitia James.
    • DHS estimates more than 950,000 people could drop or skip benefits to avoid immigration penalties.
    • DHS estimates states could lose $4.05 billion a year in Medicaid and CHIP money, about $2.2 billion of it in suing states.

  2. Judge Saylor blocks Trump rule limiting stays for foreign students, academics, journalists

    THE NEW YORK TIMES

    U.S. District Judge F. Dennis Saylor IV wrote the administration's reasons for limiting stays for academics and journalists were 'exceptionally weak.'

  3. Mahmoud Khalil sues Columbia alleging deliberate indifference to anti-Palestinian harassment

    PBS NEWSHOUR

    The Title VI suit was filed Monday, Sept. 14 in Manhattan federal court. It says Columbia's inaction led to members being doxed — and to Khalil's 104-day detention in Louisiana after ICE arrested him in March 2025.

The war in Ukraine2 bites

  1. Trump announced a Russia-Ukraine energy truce Kyiv calls conditional

    WASHINGTON EXAMINERRussia-Ukraine war

    Zelenskyy said Ukraine will halt strikes on Russia only if Russia spares Ukrainian critical infrastructure. Trump blames Ukrainian refinery strikes for US diesel topping $6 a gallon last week.

    Diesel backdropThe previous US diesel record was $5.82 a gallon in June 2022.3 details
    • The previous US diesel record was $5.82 a gallon in June 2022.
    • Russia is a diesel exporter.
    • Russia banned diesel exports in July after Ukrainian refinery strikes.
    Ongoing13

    This story has run 14 times over 20 days, starting Aug 26.

    1. CIA chief Ratcliffe makes rare Moscow visit
    2. CIA chief reportedly warned Moscow against a limited Russian attack on NATO
    3. CIA chief secretly met Russian intelligence officials in Moscow
    4. UpdateCIA chief told Moscow to end the Ukraine war before Russia’s military and economy worsen
    5. Russian drone hits ammunition depot near Kyiv, killing 38; four remain missing
    6. Russia's finance minister returned to the G20 in person for the first time since the Ukraine invasion
    7. Witkoff and Kushner meet Putin in Moscow Sept. 5, Zelensky in Kyiv Sept. 6, carrying a U.S. proposal to end the war
    8. UpdatePutin orders 72-hour halt to strikes on Kyiv while Witkoff and Kushner visit, after a three-hour Kremlin meeting
    9. UpdateWitkoff and Kushner hold first Kyiv talks of the war, agreeing on next steps but no terms; announcement promised in weeks
    10. UpdateWitkoff says Moscow-Kyiv trip produced 'substantive progress' on scheduling more talks, with no date set and no terms disclosed
    11. UpdateRussia resumed strikes on Kyiv after the truce, killing 7; Trump and Putin then talked for an hour
    12. UpdateTrump says Russia's president wants a Ukraine peace deal after their phone call
    13. UpdateVladimir Putin warned that sending European troops into Ukraine means war with Russia.
    14. Trump announced a Russia-Ukraine energy truce Kyiv calls conditional — this issue

  2. Russian drone hit Ukrainian locomotive beside Petraeus train after Johnson train left, hurting no one

    WASHINGTON EXAMINERUpdateRussia-Ukraine war

    The strike hit Yahodyn station on the Polish border on Sunday, Sept. 13, after both trains were evacuated. Ukraine's railway agency said the diplomatic train was the likely target.

    On Sept. 14, a Russian drone struck a locomotive pulling a Warsaw-bound train from Kyiv near the Polish border. No one was hurt.

    More on the strikePetraeus, Johnson and other diplomats were returning from the Yalta European Strategy conference in Kyiv.2 details
    • Petraeus, Johnson and other diplomats were returning from the Yalta European Strategy conference in Kyiv.
    • Johnson said 1,700 Ukrainian Railways staff have been killed during the war.
Votes in the Senate2 bites

  1. Trump backed a ban on federal elected officials issuing crypto and enforcement by state attorneys general

    PBS NEWSHOUR

    The ban covers the meme coins Trump and Melania launched — Republicans said the ethics language was the price of getting the bill to a pivotal Senate vote Tuesday, Sept. 15.

    • Clarity Act would govern a $2.3 trillion crypto market
    • Senior GOP aide says Trump accepted about 80% of the ethics proposal from Thom Tillis (Sen-R North Carolina) and Ruben Gallego (Sen-D Arizona)
    • Updated text released Monday, Sept. 14 requires divestiture or a blind trust for significant holdings — which would cover the existing Trump and Melania coins

  2. McConnell returns to Senate after three-month absence, restoring Republicans' 12-11 farm bill edge

    PBS NEWSHOUR

    Mitch McConnell (Sen-R Kentucky) arrived in a wheelchair for his first vote since June 11 — restoring Republicans' 12-11 edge on the Senate Agriculture Committee ahead of its Wednesday, Sept. 16 farm bill markup.

At the Pentagon2 bites

  1. Air Force secretary says US has deployed its first space-based weapon

    THE WASHINGTON POST

    The secretary disclosed the deployment without naming the weapon, its program or its orbit — a first public confirmation of a capability the U.S. had never acknowledged. Security experts warned the disclosure could push other governments to put weapons in orbit.

    • Disclosure follows years of US warnings that China and Russia have practiced offensive maneuvers in orbit.

  2. Pentagon watchdog says Iran war cost $33.4 billion through June 30, caused munitions shortfall

    NBC NEWSUpdateIran war

    The inspector general's tally also counts $184 million in damage to U.S. diplomatic sites in Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Donald Trump deny any shortage.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 1 earlier issue

    On Sept. 14, the Pentagon ordered defense firms onto wartime footing.

    More from the reportAt least 30 large U.S. drones were destroyed in the report's Feb. 28 to June 30 window — one of several losses the tally covers.3 details
    • At least 30 large U.S. drones were destroyed in the report's Feb. 28 to June 30 window — one of several losses the tally covers.
    • The report estimates more than 45% of Patriot interceptors were used.
    • CSIS rates 7 munitions at 'critical' inventory levels.
    Ongoing1

    This story has run 2 times, starting Sep 14.

    1. Pentagon orders defense industry to wartime footing after US fired thousands of missiles in Iran war
    2. UpdatePentagon watchdog says Iran war cost $33.4 billion through June 30, caused munitions shortfall — this issue
Also tonight8 bites

  1. Putin-linked oligarch paid hundreds of thousands for Trump Jr after-wedding celebration

    PROPUBLICARussia-Ukraine war

    Umar Kremlev, sanctioned by Ukraine in 2024 over ties to Putin, heads the International Boxing Association and paid through its Dubai-based IB Challenger company for the 50-guest, three-day after-wedding party in the Bahamas.

    The tab and the reactionKremlev rented a private island at about $100,000 a night and paid $70,000 for fireworks.3 details
    • Kremlev rented a private island at about $100,000 a night and paid $70,000 for fireworks.
    • Trump Jr. and Bettina Trump called it a generous gift from a friend; Donald Trump said he never heard of Kremlev.
    • Robert Garcia (Rep-D California), the top Democrat on House Oversight, asked what Kremlev got in return.

  2. DHS watchdog says Alligator Alcatraz held 79 detainees in small metal cages

    CBS NEWSImmigration enforcement

    The January inspection found 28 square feet per detainee, under half Florida's 75-square-foot jail standard, and enclosure stays up to two hours.

    What the report foundIndoor cages measured 18 square feet, below ICE's 37-square-foot minimum for one person.3 details
    • Indoor cages measured 18 square feet, below ICE's 37-square-foot minimum for one person.
    • Detainees got 1 hour of recreation 3 days a week, below ICE's 6-hour weekly minimum.
    • The camp closed in June 2026, so the watchdog closed all recommendations without action.

  3. Justice Department subpoenas Brennan for Oct. 15 testimony in Florida grand conspiracy probe

    NBC NEWS

    Signed by prosecutor Joe diGenova on the day he quit, it names former CIA Director John Brennan a subject in Florida while he remains a target in the D.C. probe over 2023 congressional testimony. The Florida probe is examining whether former officials broke the law in the 2016 Trump-Russia investigation. The testimony at issue dates to 2023 — near the five-year federal limit on false-statement charges.

    Brennan's lawyers asked Judge Jia Cobb on Monday, Sept. 14 for a preservation order to support a vindictive-prosecution defense.

  4. White House says pardon brokers waste money, Trump doesn't know them

    FOX NEWSUpdate

    Spokesperson Lauren Bis said Monday, Sept. 14 that reviews run through White House counsel, DOJ and pardon czar Alice Johnson. 60 Minutes had sent a convicted felon undercover to meet self-described pardon brokers, who offered to secure a Trump pardon for fees as high as $300,000. Paying an official for a pardon is bribery; charging a client to lobby for one is generally legal — the line the brokers worked.

    On Sept. 14, hidden-camera 60 Minutes footage showed brokers offering to secure a Trump pardon for clients paying large fees — the denial answers that reporting.

  5. Democratic state parties will train 10,000 volunteers to monitor polls in 57 states and territories

    PBS NEWSHOUR2026 midterms

    Organizers aim to cover about a quarter of polling places in competitive districts, with volunteers in blue vests.

    The programVolunteers are trained to observe and report problems to election officials and party lawyers.2 details
    • Volunteers are trained to observe and report problems to election officials and party lawyers.
    • Organizers describe the visible presence as a counter to intimidation at poll sites.

  6. Trump calls AI takeover fears a hoax in speakerphone call with Nvidia CEO

    NBC NEWS

    Jensen Huang took the call during his All-In Summit interview in Los Angeles on Monday, Sept. 14, where Trump called data centers the oil of the next 20 to 25 years.

    What else was saidTrump also called data centers bigger than the internet while urging people to act prudently.4 details
    • Trump also called data centers bigger than the internet while urging people to act prudently.
    • Trump suggested people raising AI fears serve political interests or China.
    • Huang praised the Anthropic whistleblower's courage while calling doom predictions not grounded in science.
    • Beijing's foreign ministry called the Anthropic slowdown proposal 'fearmongering' on Monday, Sept. 14 — spokesman Guo Jiakun said U.S. chip curbs would harm global AI rules. Trump and Xi Jinping discuss AI on Sept. 24.

  7. Kennedy Center board will vote Tuesday, Sept. 15 on 10 Trump name options or closure

    ABC NEWSUpdate

    The vote offers ten naming options plus a second resolution to close the main building immediately as unsafe — the board's answer to filings warning of fiscal collapse within weeks, which say Trump is unlikely to lead a rescue without his name restored. A judge ruled the 2025 takeover and renaming illegal in May and ordered the name off the facade; ticket sales and donations have fallen since.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 2 earlier issues

    On September 14, Kennedy Center leaders warned of certain financial collapse within weeks. Internal papers said adding Trump's name might be the only way to avoid bankruptcy and closure on September 15.

    • $285 million renovation includes $257 million Congress already appropriated; board says Trump would raise $100 million more.
    • Second resolution would close the main building immediately as unsafe, which Joyce Beatty (Rep-D Ohio) says misstates consultants' findings.
    • Board voted 23-3 last month to close the facility for two years.
    1 earlier issue
    Ongoing2

    This story has run 3 times over 9 days, starting Sep 6.

    1. Part of the Kennedy Center grand foyer ceiling collapsed during Sept. 4 storms, no injuries
    2. Kennedy Center warns of 'certain financial collapse' within weeks and closure as soon as Tuesday, Sept. 15
    3. UpdateKennedy Center board will vote Tuesday, Sept. 15 on 10 Trump name options or closure — this issue
    Chart · pipeline render▲ label over mark

    The renovation budget vs. the money attached to the name

    A $100 million pledge, a $285 million renovationMillions of dollars, as stated in the court filing$0$285M$257 millionappropriated by Congressremainder of the $285 million$100 millionboard says Trump would raiseMoney attached to the nameFiling does not say whether the $100 million sits inside the $285 million scope.Source: ABC News account of the court filing.
    Source: prior board votes, 23-3 closure vote, $285M renovation, Tuesday 10 a.m. conference and 12:30 p.m. meetingPOLI

  8. CDC counts only NCHS-listed measles deaths, showing zero for 2026

    NBC NEWSUpdate

    Pennsylvania has 3 measles-linked deaths and 693 cases as of Monday, Sept. 14, while the CDC — which switched its public tally to the narrower NCHS method on Sept. 4 — lists zero deaths for 2026. NCHS counts only deaths where a filed death certificate names measles as the underlying cause, a coding process that lags state reports by months.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 3 earlier issues

    On September 14, Pennsylvania reported its third measles-linked death of the year, an unvaccinated 40-year-old woman who died of probable complications.

    2 earlier issues
    More from the outbreakThe woman was 40, unvaccinated, and used oxygen around the clock for COPD and asthma.3 details
    • The woman was 40, unvaccinated, and used oxygen around the clock for COPD and asthma.
    • 99 of the 693 cases were confirmed in the past week.
    • Only 4 cases in the outbreak were in vaccinated people.
    Ongoing3

    This story has run 4 times over 18 days, starting Aug 28.

    1. Pennsylvania reports 2 measles-associated deaths, its first in 35 years, as coroner disputes infant case
    2. CDC leaves two Pennsylvania measles deaths out of its national count
    3. Unvaccinated 40-year-old Pennsylvania woman dies of measles complications, third death tied to outbreak
    4. UpdateCDC counts only NCHS-listed measles deaths, showing zero for 2026 — this issue

Elections22 races

The midterms · 49 days out · November 3, 2026

D or R take the House / Senate?

Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT

U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 87%, Kalshi 86%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 54%, Kalshi 53%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

U.S. House — Democrats take it, 85.5–86.5%
87%86%chance Democrats take it · 1.0pp apart · no clear move — the venues went opposite ways
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 87% and Kalshi 86%.
U.S. Senate — Democrats take it, 52.5–53.5%
54%53%chance Democrats take it · 1.0pp apart · both venues up this week
U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 54% and Kalshi 53%.

3 closest races

  • aaNevada governorLombardo vs. FordFord49.5%Lombardo53.5%books split

    POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election

    Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).

    Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the only race here where the two venues do not agree on who is ahead, but no race here has moved more this week: it is down about nine points.

    The books name different leaders

    Nevada governor

    Each line is one book’s lead — the gap between the two candidates, signed. Zero is a tie, and the two venues are on opposite sides of it.

    Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 5.0pp

    Nevada governor. Lead in percentage points, positive to Joe Lombardo. Kalshi: Lombardo ahead by 8 points. Polymarket: Ford ahead by 1 point. Every day is in the table below.

    Lombardo aheadFord ahead20%tied20%7d agotodayLombardo +8%KalshiFord +1%Polymarket

    today

    • Lombardo+8%Kalshi
    • Ford+1%Polymarket
    • Lombardo48.5%Polymarket
    • Lombardo53.5%Kalshi
    • Ford49.5%Polymarket
    • Ford45.5%Kalshi

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. The lead is the gap between the two, in points. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • tTexas SenateJames Talarico 52.0%▲3.2Ken Paxton 48.5%

    POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election

    James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).

    A dead heat — the two sides are priced within four points of each other, after the Democratic side gained about three points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas Senate

    Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 52.5%, Kalshi 51.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 47.5%, Kalshi 49.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • xOhio SenateSherrod Brown 53.5%Jon Husted 46.5%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election

    Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).

    A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio Senate

    Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 53.5%, Kalshi 53.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 46.5%, Kalshi 46.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

The other 19 races22 races · 12 still in doubt · Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT · markets, not polling

Senate8 of 10

  • uAlaska SenateMary Peltola 67.0%▲2.4Dan Sullivan 34.3%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election

    Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).

    A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska Senate

    Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 66.5%, Kalshi 67.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 33.5%, Kalshi 35.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • acGeorgia SenateJon Ossoff 93.58%▲0.7Collins 6.58%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election

    Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia Senate

    Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.4pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 93.50%, Kalshi 93.65%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 6.40%, Kalshi 6.75%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.4pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • vIowa SenateAshley Hinson 59.0%Josh Turek 40.5%▲6.1

    POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election

    Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).

    An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead after losing about seven points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa Senate

    Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 5.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 56.5%, Kalshi 61.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 42.5%, Kalshi 38.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 5.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • sMaine SenateTroy Jackson 68.5%Collins 31.8%▲1.1

    POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election

    Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).

    Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Maine Senate

    Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 4.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 70.5%, Kalshi 66.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 29.5%, Kalshi 34.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • wMichigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed 61.5%Mike Rogers 39.5%▲3.3

    POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election

    Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).

    The Democratic side holds a clear lead after the Republican side gained about four points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan Senate

    Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 61.5%, Kalshi 61.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 39.5%, Kalshi 39.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • adNebraska SenatePete Ricketts 68.5%Dan Osborn 31.0%▲2.8

    POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election

    Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead after Osborn gained about three points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Nebraska Senate

    Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 67.5%, Kalshi 69.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 32.5%, Kalshi 29.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aeNew Hampshire SenateChris Pappas 83.0%▲0.6Sununu 16.5%

    POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election

    Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    New Hampshire Senate

    Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 83.5%, Kalshi 82.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 15.5%, Kalshi 17.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • abNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 91.72%▲0.58.35%Whatley

    POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election

    Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    North Carolina Senate

    Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.4pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 91.50%, Kalshi 91.95%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 8.5%, Kalshi 8.2%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.4pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Governors11 of 12

  • agAlaska governorWilson 24.75%74.3%Begich 0.92%▲3.2

    POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election

    Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).

    Wilson holds a clear lead after losing about three points in five days.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska governor

    Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 26.5%, Kalshi 23.0%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 1.40%, Kalshi 0.45%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • aiArizona governorKatie Hobbs 87.3%▲0.512.5%Biggs

    POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election

    Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Arizona governor

    Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 87.0%, Kalshi 87.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 12.5%, Kalshi 12.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • amFlorida governorByron Donalds 81.0%19.5%▲1.2Jolly

    POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election

    Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).

    Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Florida governor

    Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 81.5%, Kalshi 80.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 18.5%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • zGeorgia governorKeisha Lance Bottoms 56.8%▲0.5Rick Jackson 42.5%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election

    Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).

    Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia governor

    Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 58.0%, Kalshi 55.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 42.5%, Kalshi 42.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • afIowa governorRob Sand 77.3%▲0.8Zach Lahn 23.0%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election

    Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa governor

    Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 77.0%, Kalshi 77.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 23.5%, Kalshi 22.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • ahMichigan governorJocelyn Benson 91.7%▲1.88.3%James

    POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election

    Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan governor

    Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 92.5%, Kalshi 90.9%; John James (R): Polymarket 7.0%, Kalshi 9.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • akNew York governorKathy Hochul 93.3%7.3%Blakeman

    POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election

    Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    New York governor

    Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 94.5%, Kalshi 92.0%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 6.5%, Kalshi 8.1%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • rOhio governorAmy Acton 54.5%Vivek Ramaswamy 45.8%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election

    Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).

    Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio governor

    Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 54.5%, Kalshi 54.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 45.0%, Kalshi 46.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • alPennsylvania governorJosh Shapiro 96.60%Garrity 3.05%▲0.4

    POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election

    Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Pennsylvania governor

    Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.1pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 96.75%, Kalshi 96.45%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.5%, Kalshi 3.6%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.1pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • ajTexas governorGreg Abbott 82.5%16.8%▲0.3Hinojosa

    POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election

    Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas governor

    Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 83.5%, Kalshi 81.5%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 16.0%, Kalshi 17.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • yWisconsin governorDavid Crowley 82.0%▲0.6Tiffany 18.0%

    POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election

    David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).

    An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Wisconsin governor

    Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 83.5%, Kalshi 80.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 16.5%, Kalshi 19.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Sep 14, 11:01 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.

15 stories that didn't make the cutSeen by the desk, ranked, and not run. The number is where each stood in the day's order.
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