News news5 stories
Ongoing1 earlier update
This story has run 2 times, starting Oct 16.
- Gunman kills three children and one adult at Bend, Oregon, elementary school; police have not said who killed him
- UpdateBend, Oregon, school shooter who killed three children and a teacher was a 16-year-old ex-student using a shotgun his mother reportedly bought — this issue
A father of two Silver Rail students, Kaylub Giamanco, followed him into the building and shot him dead.
Police say the 16-year-old who killed three children and a teacher at Silver Rail Elementary in Bend, Oregon, was a former special-needs student there. He went after a special-education classroom. The Washington Post and New York Post name him John J. Griffin II. PBS gives the name in a different order.
The victims. The children killed were 5, 8 and 11. The teacher, Megan Lambert, was 25. “She loved Silver Rail. This was her dream job,” her family said. A 7-year-old student and a 54-year-old teacher are critically injured.
The school. The first 911 call, at 12:59 p.m. local time, came from a driver who said they had been shot at. The school resource officer (a police officer assigned to schools) covers six to seven schools. The officer was not at Silver Rail that day.
The gun. Investigators believe the teen's mother, Shauntai Nickerson, bought the shotgun. “If I could have prevented this, I would have,” she said.
The politics. “When are we going to practice that same bravery that that bystander had?” asked Janelle Bynum (Rep-D Oregon). Aidan Johnston of Gun Owners of America said: “What did stop the mass murderer and save lives was an armed bystander with good aim.” ([TS]Per the police chief, the classroom shooting had already happened and a teacher was wrestling him when Giamanco fired.)
Still open. Police Chief Mike Krantz says how the teen came to have the shotgun is still under investigation. About 150 people, including the FBI, ATF and Oregon State Police, are working the case.
Catch up
A gunman killed three children and an adult at Silver Rail Elementary in Bend, Oregon, on Thursday, Oct. 15. The first 911 call came at 12:59 p.m., officers arrived at 1:02 and the shooter was down shortly after, but police had not said who killed him.
Ongoing2 earlier updates6 days
This story has run 3 times over 6 days, starting Oct 11.
- UpdateTrump says Ukraine needs "a new president" and tells Zelensky to stop striking Russian oil refineries
- UpdateUkraine strikes a Russian refinery, ending the three-day energy-strike pause Trump demanded
- UpdateEU leaders say they 'regret' Trump's lifting of Russian diesel sanctions; Trump calls Zelensky 'not a good guy' — this issue
The Friday, Oct. 16 summit text also welcomed €6.6 billion in EU military aid that member states agreed to release on Sept. 25.
EU leaders closed their Brussels summit on Friday, Oct. 16, with written conclusions that “regret” the U.S. decision to temporarily lift sanctions on Russian diesel. That makes the objection the bloc's official line, not one minister's complaint. The text also urges other partners to “swiftly step up” support for Ukraine.
The real number. The €6.6 billion comes from the European Peace Facility, the EU's joint military-aid fund, and was agreed three weeks before the summit. Only €1 billion of it buys new equipment; €4.7 billion repays governments for aid already sent, per EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas. The leaders named no new weapons package.
Trump's verdict. Late on Thursday, Oct. 15, Trump told Newsmax the resumed refinery strikes were a “disgrace.” He called Volodymyr Zelensky (President, Ukraine) “not a good guy for us to deal with” and harder to deal with than Vladimir Putin (President, Russia).
Zelensky's reply. In Brussels he thanked Europe's “real leaders.” Asked if he felt betrayed, he said: “Really, yes... but it's a little bit more complicated than just my emotions or my feelings.” Guido Crosetto (Defense Minister, Italy) called U.S. limits on Ukraine “a complete mistake, a major mistake.”
Watch. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov sided with Trump the same day. Neither Kyiv nor Moscow reported new refinery strikes on Friday, Oct. 16, per NBC News.
Catch up
- Oct. 9 — Trump struck a deal to bring in Russian diesel and said Ukraine needs “a new president.” A U.S. official told Axios the deal came after Zelensky ignored “half a dozen” U.S. requests to stop hitting Russian refineries.
- Oct. 11 — Trump announced an immediate refinery-only energy ceasefire; Moscow never confirmed it, and Ukraine paused energy strikes for three days.
- Oct. 15 — Ukraine hit a Russian refinery, saying Russia never stopped its attacks and accusing Washington of cutting intelligence and throttling Starlink.
Ongoing27 earlier updates52 days
This story has run 28 times over 52 days, starting Aug 26.
- CIA chief Ratcliffe makes rare Moscow visit
- CIA chief reportedly warned Moscow against a limited Russian attack on NATO
- CIA chief secretly met Russian intelligence officials in Moscow
- UpdateCIA chief told Moscow to end the Ukraine war before Russia’s military and economy worsen
- Russian drone hits ammunition depot near Kyiv, killing 38; four remain missing
- Russia's finance minister returned to the G20 in person for the first time since the Ukraine invasion
- Witkoff and Kushner meet Putin in Moscow Sept. 5, Zelensky in Kyiv Sept. 6, carrying a U.S. proposal to end the war
- UpdatePutin orders 72-hour halt to strikes on Kyiv while Witkoff and Kushner visit, after a three-hour Kremlin meeting
- UpdateWitkoff and Kushner hold first Kyiv talks of the war, agreeing on next steps but no terms; announcement promised in weeks
- UpdateWitkoff says Moscow-Kyiv trip produced 'substantive progress' on scheduling more talks, with no date set and no terms disclosed
- UpdateRussia resumed strikes on Kyiv after the truce, killing 7; Trump and Putin then talked for an hour
- UpdateTrump says Russia's president wants a Ukraine peace deal after their phone call
- House schedules vote next week on authorizing 100% tariffs on Russian oil buyers
- UpdateVladimir Putin warned that sending European troops into Ukraine means war with Russia.
- Trump announced a Russia-Ukraine energy truce Kyiv calls conditional
- UpdateThe House voted 214-211 to advance 100% tariffs on buyers of Russian oil
- UpdateCongress sends Trump a bill letting him impose 100% tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil
- UpdateTrump signs the bill authorizing 100% tariffs on buyers of Russian oil
- Trump and Zelensky agree to New York talks, expected Sept. 22
- UpdateZelensky asks Trump for a mutual halt on energy and port strikes
- Zelensky (President, Ukraine) urges countries to limit trade with Russia to cut war funding
- UpdatePutin added a sale of Lukoil's foreign oil assets to US-Russia Ukraine talks; the buyers include Witkoff and Kushner business partners
- UpdateTreasury lifts U.S. sanctions on Russian diesel until April 7, 2027, after Trump says Russia will send 4.8 million tons
- UpdateRussian glide bombs kill 20 in Zaporizhzhia a day after the U.S. suspended Russian diesel sanctions; Putin tells Trump talks won't resume soon
- UpdateFour Republican senators join Democrats in demanding Trump reverse his Russian diesel deal, saying he skipped steps the law requires
- UpdateTrump defends letting Russian diesel into the U.S. as analysts say the 300,000-ton first shipment is too small to lower prices
- Update12 senators, six from each party, ask Trump to rescind his deal lifting U.S. sanctions on Russian diesel
- Trump waives the Russian energy tariffs and sanctions required by the Graham law he signed last month — this issue
Bloomberg reports the penalties were blocking his push to bring down diesel prices before the Nov. 3 midterms.
Donald Trump waived the large tariffs on Russian energy exports that the Graham sanctions law requires. That law puts tariffs and sanctions on Russian energy, and Trump signed it in September. It is named for Lindsey Graham (Sen-R South Carolina), and it made the penalties mandatory unless the president used its waiver.
Bloomberg reports the White House saw the penalties as an obstacle to its effort to lower diesel prices before the Nov. 3 midterm elections.
The real number. U.S. diesel averaged $6.18 a gallon the week of Oct. 12, per the Energy Information Administration (EIA). That is down from $6.53 the week of Sept. 21, the year's high in EIA's weekly series, but $2.51 above the same week a year earlier.
Red take
Trump was right to use the waiver Congress built into the law: the White House judged these tariffs an obstacle to cheaper diesel, which cost $6.18 a gallon on Oct. 12 against $3.49 in May 2025. The law named for Lindsey Graham, the South Carolina Republican senator, kept that escape hatch for the president, and refusing to use it would rank a show of pressure on Moscow above truckers and farmers paying nearly double at the pump.
Blue take
A sanctions law Trump signed in September now binds only when he chooses: its waiver clause needs no vote, never expires, and gives Congress no built-in way to overturn it. Treasury had already licensed Russian diesel through April 7, 2027, in an Oct. 9 decision. What the waiver adds, after Bloomberg reported a midterm motive, is a lesson for Moscow that American penalties can be switched off before an election.
Ongoing18 earlier updates38 days
This story has run 19 times over 38 days, starting Sep 9.
- Houthi missiles and drones hit 4 Saudi cities, wounding 73 and halting Aramco's 400,000-barrel-a-day Jazan refinery
- UpdateBrent oil exceeds $100 a barrel; US diesel reaches $5.94 a gallon
- Houthis capture Yemen's Mokha from Saudi-backed forces 46 miles from Bab el-Mandeb
- UpdateHouthi forces captured Mokha and Perim island in the 28-kilometer Bab el-Mandeb strait.
- UpdateA day after the Bab el-Mandeb capture, maritime monitors have recorded no new transit halts
- UpdateSaudi Arabia shuts Hormuz-bypass pipeline, oil rises more than $3 with 4% of supply at risk
- UpdateHouthis seize two more Red Sea islands as Saudi pipeline faces 3-to-5-week outage
- UpdateSaudi Arabia suspends loadings at its last open oil terminal; September cargoes cancelled
- Attacks on Saudi export pipeline push WTI crude to $107.02 a barrel, a 30-day high
- UpdateHouthi missiles hit Riyadh, burning a fuel depot near King Khalid airport
- UpdateSaudi Arabia says it intercepted a Houthi missile aimed at Riyadh
- UpdateTrump declined a prepared U.S. air campaign against the Houthis, giving Saudi Arabia intelligence and targeting data instead
- UpdateSaudi Arabia tested its shut east-west pipeline for a restart as oil fell below $98
- UpdateStrike on Riyadh airport kills 12, including an American; Trump says the U.S. "may" join Saudi strikes on the Houthis
- UpdateRiyadh airport hit again Sunday, Oct. 11, killing one; Saturday's strike toll rises to at least 13, including an American
- UpdateSaudi Arabia investigates why its air defenses failed to stop the Houthi strike that killed at least 13 at Riyadh's airport
- UpdateSaudi-led coalition bombs Houthi oil facilities and a fuel depot in Yemen after a Riyadh airport strike killed at least 13
- Houthi strike damages 3 floors of Aramco's Dhahran headquarters, including executive offices; no casualties
- Brent crude touches $110 a barrel, its first time there since May 20, after Saudi-led forces intercept missiles aimed at energy hubs — this issue
U.S. crude settled at $101.41 a barrel, its highest close since Sept. 17, per Reuters.
Brent, the global oil benchmark, touched $110 a barrel on Friday, Oct. 16, and sat near $109.75 late in the afternoon, per The Hill. That was its first time at $110 since May 20. The jump followed reports that Saudi-led forces intercepted missiles aimed at energy hubs. Regular gasoline averages $4.33 a gallon, per AAA. GasBuddy estimates Americans have spent $135 billion more on gasoline and diesel since March 1 than in the same stretch last year. Diesel prices are covered in the story on Trump's Russia sanctions waiver.
Still open. Reports so far describe interceptions, not damage. Neither Saudi Aramco nor the Saudi energy ministry has published any lost production or export volume.
Ongoing2 earlier updates11 days
This story has run 3 times over 11 days, starting Oct 6.
- Gross federal debt passes $40 trillion, above CBO's $39.4 trillion forecast for the end of fiscal 2026
- UpdateSocial Security raises benefits 3.6% for 2027, its largest yearly increase since 2023
- Treasury reports a $1.99 trillion federal deficit for fiscal 2026, the largest since fiscal 2021 — this issue
Treasury puts the gap at an estimated 6.2% of the economy, up from 5.8% in fiscal 2025.
The federal government spent $1.99 trillion more than it took in during fiscal 2026 (the budget year that ended Sept. 30), Treasury reported Friday, Oct. 16. That is $217 billion more than fiscal 2025's $1.78 trillion and, per Reuters, the biggest yearly gap since fiscal 2021's $2.77 trillion, when pandemic relief swelled spending. Higher spending drove it, per Bloomberg and Reuters.
The real number. Outlays hit a record $7.40 trillion, up $386 billion, while receipts rose $169 billion to a record $5.40 trillion, per Treasury. Measured against the economy the rise is smaller: 6.2% of GDP against 5.8%, and Treasury would not say what GDP estimate it used, Reuters reported.
Still open. Bloomberg reports the result undercuts the administration's cost-cutting claims and keeps the debt on track for a record.
Where the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) says the $386 billion in new spending went:
- Net interest on the debt: +$115 billion
- Social Security: +$86 billion
- Medicare: +$77 billion
- Medicaid: +$55 billion
- Defense: +$48 billion
Quick bites18
Federal judge dismisses Trump administration lawsuit against New York City's sanctuary laws
THE HILLA federal judge in Brooklyn ruled that federal law does not override New York City's limits on helping ICE. U.S. District Judge Ramon Reyes found the government lacked standing to sue. He added that the Tenth Amendment would block relief anyway. It bars the federal government from commandeering local officials.
Appeals judges question DOJ claim that White House records belong to Trump personally
NPRA federal appeals panel questioned the Justice Department's argument that papers created in the White House belong to Trump rather than the public. The Presidential Records Act, passed in 1978 after Nixon, made such records public property. NPR reports the case could end up at the Supreme Court; conservative lawyer Michael Edney told a Federalist Society webinar the administration "want[s] this to go to the Supreme Court."
Judges, including eight Trump appointees, keep rejecting DOJ suits for states' unredacted voter rolls
PROPUBLICAVoter-roll checksSince September 2025, DOJ has sued 30 states plus D.C. for unredacted voter rolls; judges threw out all 26 cases with final rulings, per ProPublica, while four are pending and one state settled.
Who ruled, and what they said
- Judges in the 26 decided cases: 8 Trump appointees, 4 Bush appointees, 14 Democratic appointees.
- Judge David O. Carter: "The Court does not take lightly DOJ's obfuscation of its true motives."
- Trump appointee Judge Lance Walker called DOJ's legal case "halfhearted."
- The one appeal decided so far, in the Sixth Circuit, upheld the dismissal of the Michigan case.
Trump denies ordering speed caps on Ukraine's Starshield terminals; nine senators ask Pentagon watchdog who did
THE HILLUpdateRussia-Ukraine warTrump said on Friday, Oct. 16, that neither he nor Elon Musk ordered this week's speed caps on Starshield, the military Starlink service that Ukraine's drones and air defenses run on. “It wasn't me, and it wasn't Elon, as I understand,” he told reporters, per The Hill. Two U.S. officials and a Western official have told Reuters the order came from the White House. Nine senators, four of them Republicans, have asked the Pentagon's inspector general, Platte Moring, to find out who directed, approved or knew in advance about the caps, per ABC News. Their Oct. 15 letter asks him to confirm an investigation in writing and give a first briefing by Sunday, Nov. 1.
- The Republican signers: Susan Collins (Sen-R Maine), John Cornyn (Sen-R Texas), Lisa Murkowski (Sen-R Alaska) and Thom Tillis (Sen-R North Carolina).
- Trump also said he did not think service had been slowed at all. Zelensky said in Brussels the same day that speed was returning but not fully restored, per NBC News.
- A Ukrainian official told Axios: “Our guys who speak to SpaceX say the White House was involved in the decision.”
Ongoing2
This story has run 3 times over 2 days, starting Oct 15.
- UpdateUkraine's military Starshield satellite terminals stop working above 160 km/h; Musk says the U.S. military and Trump set the limit
- UpdateTwo U.S. officials and a Western official say the order to cap Ukraine's Starshield terminals came from the White House
- UpdateTrump denies ordering speed caps on Ukraine's Starshield terminals; nine senators ask Pentagon watchdog who did — this issue
Katie Zacharia is out as White House press secretary after five days, with no replacement named
NBC NEWSUpdateZacharia left Friday, Oct. 16, less than three weeks before the midterms, after holding one 14-minute briefing. The Guardian and The New York Times call it a firing; Trump denied firing her, per Fox News. NBC reports that a replacement is not likely soon.
Catch up
- Oct. 9 — Trump named Truth Social adviser Katie Zacharia to replace Karoline Leavitt, who left in late August.
- Oct. 13 — CNN surfaced her conspiracy-laced posts; her first briefing ran 14 minutes and took questions from three outlets.
- Oct. 16 — Reports showed she failed the 2011 California bar yet called herself a lawyer for years; Trump had introduced her as "an attorney."
- UpdatePress secretary Katie Zacharia failed the 2011 California bar but called herself a lawyer for years
3 earlier issues
- Trump names Truth Social adviser Katie Zacharia White House press secretary, replacing Karoline Leavitt
- UpdateKatie Zacharia replaces Karoline Leavitt as White House press secretary as CNN surfaces her conspiracy-laced posts
- UpdatePress secretary Katie Zacharia's first briefing lasted 14 minutes and took questions from three outlets
By the numbers
- Tenure: 5 days per NBC, The Hill, TIME, The Guardian and The New York Times; Fox News counts 7.
- For comparison, Anthony Scaramucci lasted 11 days as Trump's communications director in 2017.
Ongoing4
This story has run 5 times over 7 days, starting Oct 10.
- Trump names Truth Social adviser Katie Zacharia White House press secretary, replacing Karoline Leavitt
- UpdateKatie Zacharia replaces Karoline Leavitt as White House press secretary as CNN surfaces her conspiracy-laced posts
- UpdatePress secretary Katie Zacharia's first briefing lasted 14 minutes and took questions from three outlets
- UpdatePress secretary Katie Zacharia failed the 2011 California bar but called herself a lawyer for years
- UpdateKatie Zacharia is out as White House press secretary after five days, with no replacement named — this issue
DHS Secretary Mullin says the Omar case is headed to a grand jury; her lawyers want seized items back
CBS NEWSUpdateHomeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin says Ilhan Omar's (Rep-D Minnesota) case, "a strong case" built on a judge-signed warrant and others served Monday, Oct. 12, will go to a grand jury. Omar is uncharged, her lawyers want the seized items back, and Trump officials who examined her in 2019 found no citizenship problems.
Catch up
- Oct. 12 — Federal agents searched Omar's Washington home in a criminal immigration-fraud probe over papers her late father filed when she was a child; she became a citizen in 2000, at 17.
- Oct. 13 — D.C. U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro told Fox News her office is examining Omar's financial disclosures, which valued husband Tim Mynett's two businesses at $15,000–$51,000 for 2023 and $6 million–$30 million for 2024; an April amendment, which Omar's office blamed on an accounting error, cut the couple's reported assets to $18,004–$95,000. Trump said he takes "no position" on deporting her.
- Oct. 14 — Reports showed agents took her personal phone and a Minnesota grand jury subpoenaed her relatives, as investigators examined whether her age was falsified.
2 earlier issues
Where it stands
- Mullin: "We had a judge sign it, and we expect to be able to take the case to a grand jury… it's a strong case."
- Omar's lawyers asked federal prosecutors to return the items seized from her Washington home.
- Omar calls the investigation political; it concerns immigration papers her family filed decades ago.
Ongoing3
This story has run 4 times over 4 days, starting Oct 13.
- Federal agents search Rep. Ilhan Omar's home in a criminal immigration-fraud probe, 22 days before her election
- UpdateFederal prosecutor Jeanine Pirro opens a review of Ilhan Omar's financial disclosures a day after agents searched her home; Trump says he takes 'no position' on deporting her
- UpdateAgents seized Ilhan Omar's phone in the search of her home, and a Minnesota grand jury has subpoenaed her relatives
- UpdateDHS Secretary Mullin says the Omar case is headed to a grand jury; her lawyers want seized items back — this issue
Federal probe of letters with unknown substances widens to Republican senators Collins, Cruz, Ricketts and Rounds
NBC NEWSEarlier letters went to at least 26 state election offices and at least 22 offices of congressional Democrats, per NBC News; Pete Ricketts (Sen-R Nebraska) said tests showed the powder sent to his Omaha office was not harmful.
Who got mail
- 15+ House members said their offices received mailings Friday, Oct. 16 (The Hill).
- Mike Rounds (Sen-R South Dakota), Ricketts and Ted Cruz reported letters at their state offices.
Israeli settlers beat Washington Post photographer Heidi Levine and burn Palestinian olive harvest in West Bank
NBC NEWSLevine, who was marked as press, is in stable condition in a Ramallah hospital; Netanyahu's office said the facts were unclear, and Post editor Matt Murray replied that the beating was "indisputable."
- About 80 settlers descended on the grove, per Reuters witnesses cited by NBC News.
- Injuries are disputed: a local official told the BBC 12 Palestinians were hurt, four of them Palestinian-Americans; Palestinian medics told NBC 2 went to the hospital.
- NBC counts 170+ settler attacks in the West Bank since Sept. 27.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declines to preview Oct. 27-28 meeting; rate hike odds fall to 28%
THE HILLUpdateInflation and ratesWarsh said the economy has "broadly conformed" to expectations since September's hike and said "I don't prejudge meetings," pushing CME FedWatch odds of an October hike down to 28%, against 22% before the inflation report.
Catch up
- Sep. 14 — The 10-year Treasury yield topped 5% for the first time since October 2023 as Brent crude hit $108.50.
- Sep. 16 — The Fed raised its rate a quarter point to 3.75%-4%, its first hike since July 2023. Trump demanded rates of "1%, or less."
- Sep. 22–24 — Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee warned that beating inflation would be "painful." Fed Governor Michael Barr said more hikes were likely.
- Oct. 1–4 — August PCE inflation came in at 3.4%, under the 3.7% forecast. Weak jobs data then cut bets on an October hike.
- Oct. 8 — Fed minutes showed 16 of 18 officials expected at least one more hike this year.
- Oct. 9 — The White House set a closed Nov. 5 hearing, run by a committee of Trump appointees, on whether there is "cause" to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook.
- Oct. 14–15 — September consumer prices rose 3.7% and producer prices rose 6.3%.
13 earlier issues
- August inflation holds at 3.4% annually; gasoline drives monthly increase
- Consumer prices rose 0.4% in August and 3.4% over the year, lifting September Fed rate hike odds above 80%
- Trump threatens trade cutoff with some nations unless Fed lowers rates despite 3.4% inflation
- Update10-year Treasury yield hit 5.014% Monday, Sept. 14, first time since October 2023
- Federal Reserve is expected to raise its benchmark rate a quarter point on Wednesday, Sept. 16, its first hike in three years.
- UpdateFed raises its benchmark rate a quarter point to 3.75%-4%, its first increase since July 2023
- UpdateChicago Fed's Goolsbee says getting inflation to 2% will be 'painful' and require pushing employment below target
- Fed Governor Michael Barr says more rate increases are likely to counter inflation
- UpdateAugust PCE inflation was 3.4%, below the 3.7% forecast, cutting October Fed hike odds to 35% from 45%
- Markets pull back bets on October Fed and ECB rate hikes after weak US jobs data
- UpdateFed minutes show most officials expect another rate hike by year end
- Trump sets a closed White House hearing for Nov. 5 on whether he has cause to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook
- UpdateConsumer prices rose 3.7% in the year to September, up from 3.4%, as increases spread beyond gasoline
Rate hike odds this week (CME FedWatch)
- Before the Oct. 14 CPI report: 22% (Axios; economist Justin Wolfers)
- After it: 50% per Axios, 44% per Wolfers, readings taken at different times
- Warsh called the AI investment boom "probably the most important thing" lifting the global economy (Axios)
Ongoing14
This story has run 15 times over 36 days, starting Sep 11.
- August inflation holds at 3.4% annually; gasoline drives monthly increase
- Consumer prices rose 0.4% in August and 3.4% over the year, lifting September Fed rate hike odds above 80%
- Trump threatens trade cutoff with some nations unless Fed lowers rates despite 3.4% inflation
- Update10-year Treasury yield hit 5.014% Monday, Sept. 14, first time since October 2023
- Federal Reserve is expected to raise its benchmark rate a quarter point on Wednesday, Sept. 16, its first hike in three years.
- UpdateFed raises its benchmark rate a quarter point to 3.75%-4%, its first increase since July 2023
- UpdateChicago Fed's Goolsbee says getting inflation to 2% will be 'painful' and require pushing employment below target
- Fed Governor Michael Barr says more rate increases are likely to counter inflation
- UpdateAugust PCE inflation was 3.4%, below the 3.7% forecast, cutting October Fed hike odds to 35% from 45%
- Markets pull back bets on October Fed and ECB rate hikes after weak US jobs data
- UpdateFed minutes show most officials expect another rate hike by year end
- Trump sets a closed White House hearing for Nov. 5 on whether he has cause to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook
- UpdateConsumer prices rose 3.7% in the year to September, up from 3.4%, as increases spread beyond gasoline
- UpdateProducer prices rose 6.3% in the year to September, the most since December 2022, with fuel half the gain
- UpdateFed Chair Kevin Warsh declines to preview Oct. 27-28 meeting; rate hike odds fall to 28% — this issue
US measles cases reach 4,410 this year, nearly double last year's 2,289
THE HILLUpdateMeasles outbreakThe CDC counts 4,410 measles cases in 2026, per ABC News. About 96% are among people who are unvaccinated or whose status is unknown. Pennsylvania alone reports 6 measles-related deaths.
Oct. 16 — With Pennsylvania's case count at 1,222, the CDC sent an outbreak investigator to the state.
Centcom says US naval blockade has cost Iran $25 billion in oil revenue
THE HILLIran warCentcom chief Adm. Brad Cooper estimates the US naval blockade has cost Iran $25 billion in oil revenue; the reports give no calculation behind the figure, so it is Centcom's own estimate, not an independent count. He said militias across the region are "withholding payments for their soldiers in order to funnel money back to the IRGC, which also isn't paying its troops."
How big $25 billion is
- The blockade began April 13, was lifted June 14 and was reimposed July 14, per Reuters and Vortexa tanker tracking. That is about five months in force.
- Iran earned about $45 billion from petroleum exports in all of 2025, per OPEC, so the claimed loss is more than half a normal year's take.
- Before the blockade Iran shipped about 1.84 million barrels a day (March, Kpler data via Reuters); Vortexa says its seaborne crude exports have been zero since the second week of September.
DOJ warns California officials who count suspected noncitizens' ballots they risk federal prosecution
PBS NEWSHOURUpdateActing Deputy Attorney General Trent McCotter wrote to L.A. County Counsel, copying Secretary of State Shirley Weber and Registrar Dean Logan, that anyone who "knowingly" counts ballots from voters federal agencies flag as noncitizens risks "becoming aiders and abettors to a federal crime."
Catch up
The Justice Department gave Los Angeles County 48 hours, to noon Thursday, Oct. 15, to check the citizenship of an undisclosed list of mail voters and hold their ballots, without saying how it built the list. When the deadline passed, DOJ sued California and the county on Oct. 15 to keep about 20,000 of those ballots uncounted.
- About 20,000 voters' ballots are the ones DOJ wants held until their citizenship is confirmed.
- Federal law restricts systematic voter-roll maintenance within 90 days of a federal election; the Nov. 3 election is 18 days away.
- California says the department's method for identifying noncitizens is sloppy.
Ongoing2
This story has run 3 times over 2 days, starting Oct 15.
- Justice Department orders California to check citizenship of an undisclosed list of mail voters and hold their ballots by noon Thursday, Oct. 15
- UpdateJustice Department sues California and Los Angeles County to hold uncounted the mail ballots of about 20,000 people it calls likely noncitizens
- UpdateDOJ warns California officials who count suspected noncitizens' ballots they risk federal prosecution — this issue
Democrats outraised Republicans $253M to $56M in 14 of 15 competitive Senate races
NBC NEWSUpdateBattle for the SenateDemocratic candidates in the 15 Senate races NBC News rates as competitive raised $253 million from July through September. Their Republican rivals raised $56 million, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Republicans raised more in only one of those races: Minnesota, where Michele Tafoya is running against Peggy Flanagan, the state's lieutenant governor. GOP outside groups funded by megadonors are pouring money into ads to make up the gap, NBC reports.
On Oct. 16, Q3 reports showed Talarico raising $64 million in Texas against $18 million for Paxton and his allies. They also showed Democrats outraising Republicans across Senate races, including Troy Jackson's roughly 4-to-1 edge over Susan Collins in Maine.
In Ohio, former senator Sherrod Brown raised $23.1M to Jon Husted's (Sen-R Ohio) $4.8M.
Musk's midterm spending tops $276 million, close to his entire 2024 outlay
ABC NEWSUpdateElon Musk has given more than $276 million to Republican groups for the midterms, ABC News tallies from FEC filings. That nears the $277 million he had given in the 2024 election by December 2024, per CBS News. Year-end filings later put his 2024 total above $290 million, per CNN. Talarico, the Texas Democrat much of the money targets, cast himself as David: "We are going up against our own Goliaths, those billionaire mega-donors," per PBS.
In September, Musk gave the Senate GOP's super PAC, the Senate Leadership Fund, $158 million: $75 million on Sept. 9 and $83 million on Sept. 23. The fund routed it to a Texas super PAC backing Paxton's Senate bid against Talarico.
Where the $276 million went, per ABC
- $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund, passed on to Texas PAC to back Ken Paxton.
- $76 million-plus to Musk's own America PAC; CBS reports more than $80 million.
- $20 million to the Congressional Leadership Fund, the House GOP super PAC.
- $22 million more: $10 million to a second pro-Paxton super PAC, $10 million to the Republican Governors Association and $2 million to the Republican Attorneys General Association.
Cook Political Report shifts 11 more House race ratings toward Democrats, nine of them in Republican-held or open seats
THE WASHINGTON POSTBattle for the HouseThe Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper, moved 11 House races toward Democrats on Friday, Oct. 16, a week after shifting 18, per Newsmax. Nine of the 11 are Republican-held or open seats, and most still favor the GOP. Cook says Republicans' troubles are sharpest in Midwestern red states, where voters are frustrated with how both federal and state governments have handled the economy. For scale: Cook's Oct. 9 ratings had 21 Toss Ups and 213 seats in Democratic columns, five short of a 218-seat majority, per Votendi.
The 11 moves
- To Toss Up: Montana's open 1st District, which Trump won by 12 points in 2024; Republican Aaron Flint faces Democrat Sam Forstag.
- Likely to Lean Republican: Brad Finstad (Rep-R Minnesota), Mike Turner (Rep-R Ohio), Mike Carey (Rep-R Ohio), and the open New York 21st and South Carolina 1st.
- Solid to Likely Republican: Derek Schmidt (Rep-R Kansas), Mike Flood (Rep-R Nebraska) and Florida's open 16th.
- Better for Democratic incumbents: Jared Moskowitz (Rep-D Florida) and Greg Landsman (Rep-D Ohio).
Sullivan breaks with Trump on Russian diesel deal in final toss-up Alaska Senate debate with Peltola
NBC NEWSAlaska Senate raceAt their final debate on Thursday, Oct. 15, Dan Sullivan (Sen-R Alaska) was asked about the White House decision to let Russian diesel onto the world market. "I just led the effort on a Russia sanctions act that passed the Congress, so I'm opposed to that," he said, per NBC News. Treasury's Oct. 9 license allows the Russian diesel through April 7, 2027. Sullivan also said the Iran war "needs to end soon" because its energy costs are too high. He attacked his challenger, former Democratic House member Mary Peltola, over her lobbying.
Key details
- NBC News and Fox News both rate the race a toss-up.
- Peltola tied Sullivan's support for the Iran war to higher prices and pointed to his rising wealth in 12 years in office.
Chart · pipeline render▲ label over markU.S. average retail diesel price
Asked when she stopped Trump, Collins cited her failed Hegseth vote; Jackson told her to 'shut up'
THE WASHINGTON POSTMaine Senate raceTroy Jackson (D-ME) told Susan Collins (Sen-R Maine) "Oh, shut up." She had just called a heckling data-center protester "one of Troy's supporters." Collins later named her vote against Hegseth as a time she changed an outcome against Trump. The moderator replied, "So that didn't change the outcome."
Also from the debate
- Collins cited a Bangor Daily News analysis that her vote was decisive 56 times.
- Collins said she does not regret voting to confirm RFK Jr.
- Cook, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball all rate the race a toss-up.
Trump tells Georgia rally Ossoff 'was never elected' and repeats his $5,000 'Trump dividend' check pledge
ABC NEWSGeorgia Senate raceDays after the final Senate debate, Trump rallied in Dalton on Friday, Oct. 16. He repeated false 2020 fraud claims, saying Jon Ossoff (Sen-D Georgia) "was never elected." Georgia certified Ossoff's January 2021 runoff win. About 1,200 people came out for Senate candidate Mike Collins (Rep-R Georgia) and governor nominee Rick Jackson, per the Guardian. Trump again promised a $5,000 "Trump dividend" check. He first pledged it on Sept. 9 to every adult citizen if Republicans keep the House and Senate. Only Congress can authorize the payments (PBS). The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget puts one round at $1.2 trillion, against tariff revenue of under $200 billion a year.
The state of the races
- Ossoff leads by about 9 points, 52% to 43%, in the FiftyPlusOne polling average (Oct. 14); Trafalgar Group's Oct. 7–9 poll of 1,101 likely voters had him up 8.
- ABC rates the Senate race Likely Democrat and the governor's race a toss-up.
- Top GOP outside groups slowed or stopped spending in Georgia and North Carolina to shift money to Kansas and South Carolina (Politico).
- Jackson is largely funding his governor's race with his own money.
Elections22 races
The midterms · 17 days out · November 3, 2026
D or R take the House / Senate?
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 91%, Kalshi 90%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 65%, Kalshi 63%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.
No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only
Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.
- two venues, priced separately
- shaded = how far apart they are
- 50% — control flips here
- where it stood 7 days ago
- the last 7 days, on its own scale
- week panel: one line a party
The week panel draws one line per party, crossing where control does. Only the Democratic line is a traded price: the Republicanline is its arithmetic complement, the same mirror the bar’s other half is, and not a second market agreeing with the first. The shading around each line is how far apart the two venues are.
Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.
The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 0.4pp gap / 2.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.
Who is defending the House and the Senate is sourced, not remembered — House, 2026-07-23 issue: the NDAA passed “216-212, with six Democrats joining a unified Republican majority.”; Senate, 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.”
Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
| Day | U.S. House · Polymarket | U.S. House · Kalshi | U.S. Senate · Polymarket | U.S. Senate · Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days ago | 91% | 90% | 64% | 60% |
| 6 days ago | 91% | 90% | 64% | 60% |
| 5 days ago | 91% | 90% | 64% | 61% |
| 4 days ago | 91% | 90% | 64% | 62% |
| 3 days ago | 91% | 90% | 65% | 62% |
| 2 days ago | 91% | 90% | 65% | 61% |
| yesterday | 91% | 90% | 65% | 63% |
| today | 91% | 90% | 65% | 63% |
3 closest races
aaGeorgia governorJackson vs. BottomsBottoms50.5%Jackson52.5%books split
POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election
Rick Jackson (R) faces Keisha Lance Bottoms (D).
Georgia's governor's office is open, and the only race here where the two venues do not agree on who is ahead.
The books name different leaders
Georgia governor
Each line is one book’s lead — the gap between the two candidates, signed. Zero is a tie, and the two venues are on opposite sides of it.
Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT
widest venue gap 4.0ppGeorgia governor. Lead in percentage points, positive to Rick Jackson. Kalshi: Jackson ahead by 5 points. Polymarket: Bottoms ahead by 2 points. Every day is in the table below.
today
- Jackson+5%Kalshi
- Bottoms+2%Polymarket
- Jackson48.5%Polymarket
- Jackson52.5%Kalshi
- Bottoms50.5%Polymarket
- Bottoms47.5%Kalshi
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. The lead is the gap between the two, in points. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
The lead is one candidate’s price minus the other’s, at the same venue on the same day — never one book’s Tuesday against the other’s Thursday. It is drawn only where a venue priced both candidates, so a line starts late rather than being stretched across days it was never quoted over.
A day inside a tenth of a point is printed as levelrather than being rounded onto somebody’s side: on a chart whose whole subject is who is in front, a dead heat shown as a win is the one error that cannot be recovered from the drawing.
The markets: Rick Jackson Polymarket, Kalshi · Keisha Lance Bottoms Polymarket, Kalshi
Every price behind the chart, and the lead it produces. Georgia governor, snapshot Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT. Day Jackson · Polymarket Bottoms · Polymarket Lead · Polymarket Jackson · Kalshi Bottoms · Kalshi Lead · Kalshi 7 days ago 53.5% 47.5% Jackson +6% 55.0% 46.0% Jackson +9% 6 days ago 53.5% 47.5% Jackson +6% 56.0% 46.0% Jackson +10% 5 days ago 51.5% 47.5% Jackson +4% 56.0% 45.0% Jackson +11% 4 days ago 51.5% 48.0% Jackson +3.5% 56.0% 46.0% Jackson +10% 3 days ago 49.5% 50.5% Bottoms +1% 55.0% 46.0% Jackson +9% 2 days ago 49.5% 50.5% Bottoms +1% 54.0% 47.0% Jackson +7% yesterday 48.5% 50.5% Bottoms +2% 53.0% 48.0% Jackson +5% today 48.5% 50.5% Bottoms +2% 52.5% 47.5% Jackson +5% abNevada governor
POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election
Aaron Ford (D) faces Joe Lombardo (R).
Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Nevada governor
Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nevada governor. Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 53.5%, Kalshi 54.5%; Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 47.5%, Kalshi 45.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Aaron Ford 54% · Joe Lombardo 46%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Aaron Ford (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$243K53.5%Kalshi975K contracts · 54%/55%52.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move0.0ppJoe Lombardo (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$191K46.5%Kalshi506K contracts · 45%/46%49.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nevada governor, snapshot Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT. Day Aaron Ford · Polymarket Aaron Ford · Kalshi Joe Lombardo · Polymarket Joe Lombardo · Kalshi 7 days ago 53.5% 52.0% 46.5% 49.0% 6 days ago 54.5% 52.0% 46.0% 49.0% 5 days ago 54.5% 52.0% 46.0% 48.0% 4 days ago 51.5% 52.0% 47.5% 48.0% 3 days ago 53.0% 52.0% 47.5% 48.0% 2 days ago 53.5% 52.0% 47.5% 49.0% yesterday 53.5% 53.0% 47.5% 47.0% today 53.5% 54.5% 47.5% 45.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
wIowa Senate
POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election
Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).
An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Iowa Senate
Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 58.5%, Kalshi 56.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 41.5%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Ashley Hinson 57% · Josh Turek 43%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Ashley Hinson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$397K58.5%Kalshi2.7M contracts · 56%/57%58.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppJosh Turek (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$506K42.5%Kalshi2.8M contracts · 43%/44%43.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa Senate, snapshot Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT. Day Ashley Hinson · Polymarket Ashley Hinson · Kalshi Josh Turek · Polymarket Josh Turek · Kalshi 7 days ago 58.5% 58.0% 42.5% 43.0% 6 days ago 58.5% 57.0% 42.5% 43.0% 5 days ago 57.5% 58.0% 42.5% 43.0% 4 days ago 57.5% 59.0% 41.5% 41.0% 3 days ago 58.5% 60.0% 41.5% 41.0% 2 days ago 58.5% 59.0% 41.5% 42.0% yesterday 58.5% 58.0% 41.5% 43.0% today 58.5% 56.5% 41.5% 43.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
The other 19 races
Senate9 of 10
vAlaska Senate
POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election
Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).
A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Alaska Senate
Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 73.5%, Kalshi 73.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 25.5%, Kalshi 26.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Mary Peltola 73% · Dan Sullivan 26%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Mary Peltola (D)7 days agoPolymarket$824K72.5%Kalshi213K contracts · 73%/74%74.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+1.0ppDan Sullivan (R)7 days agoPolymarket$510K26.5%Kalshi236K contracts · 26%/27%28.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska Senate, snapshot Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT. Day Mary Peltola · Polymarket Mary Peltola · Kalshi Dan Sullivan · Polymarket Dan Sullivan · Kalshi 7 days ago 72.5% 74.0% 26.5% 28.0% 6 days ago 72.5% 72.0% 28.5% 28.0% 5 days ago 73.5% 75.0% 28.5% 28.0% 4 days ago 73.5% 75.0% 26.5% 26.0% 3 days ago 73.5% 75.0% 25.5% 27.0% 2 days ago 73.5% 76.0% 25.5% 27.0% yesterday 73.5% 76.0% 25.5% 27.0% today 73.5% 73.5% 25.5% 26.5% adGeorgia Senate
POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election
Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia Senate
Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.1pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 95.85%, Kalshi 95.35%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 3.90%, Kalshi 4.95%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.1pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jon Ossoff 95% · Mike Collins 4.9%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jon Ossoff (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$100K96.4%Kalshi519K contracts · 95%/95%95.4%venue gap1.0pp7-day move-0.5ppMike Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$138K3.75%Kalshi1.3M contracts · 4.9%/5.0%4.90%venue gap1.2pp7-day move+0.2ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia Senate, snapshot Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT. Day Jon Ossoff · Polymarket Jon Ossoff · Kalshi Mike Collins · Polymarket Mike Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 96.40% 95.40% 3.75% 4.90% 6 days ago 96.25% 95.40% 3.65% 4.90% 5 days ago 96.20% 95.40% 3.80% 4.40% 4 days ago 96.05% 95.40% 3.60% 4.90% 3 days ago 95.85% 95.20% 3.90% 4.60% 2 days ago 95.85% 95.20% 3.90% 4.80% yesterday 95.85% 95.30% 3.90% 4.80% today 95.85% 95.35% 3.90% 4.95% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
tMaine Senate
POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election
Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).
Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Maine Senate
Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 59.5%, Kalshi 57.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 41.5%, Kalshi 42.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Troy Jackson 58% · Susan Collins 42%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Troy Jackson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$1.3M58.5%Kalshi4.3M contracts · 57%/58%58.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+1.0ppSusan Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$996K41.5%Kalshi4.6M contracts · 42%/43%43.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Maine Senate, snapshot Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT. Day Troy Jackson · Polymarket Troy Jackson · Kalshi Susan Collins · Polymarket Susan Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 58.5% 58.0% 41.5% 43.0% 6 days ago 58.5% 57.0% 41.5% 43.0% 5 days ago 59.5% 57.0% 41.5% 44.0% 4 days ago 59.5% 58.0% 41.5% 43.0% 3 days ago 59.5% 57.0% 41.5% 44.0% 2 days ago 59.5% 57.0% 41.5% 44.0% yesterday 59.5% 57.0% 41.5% 44.0% today 59.5% 57.5% 41.5% 42.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
xMichigan Senate
POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election
Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan Senate
Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 69.5%, Kalshi 67.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 32.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 68% · Mike Rogers 32%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Abdul El-Sayed (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$1.0M69.5%Kalshi3.1M contracts · 67%/68%67.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move0.0ppMike Rogers (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$748K31.5%Kalshi4.4M contracts · 32%/33%34.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan Senate, snapshot Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT. Day Abdul El-Sayed · Polymarket Abdul El-Sayed · Kalshi Mike Rogers · Polymarket Mike Rogers · Kalshi 7 days ago 69.5% 67.0% 31.5% 34.0% 6 days ago 70.5% 67.0% 30.5% 35.0% 5 days ago 70.5% 67.0% 29.5% 34.0% 4 days ago 70.5% 67.0% 30.5% 34.0% 3 days ago 70.5% 68.0% 29.5% 33.0% 2 days ago 69.5% 68.0% 30.5% 32.0% yesterday 69.5% 68.0% 30.5% 33.0% today 69.5% 67.5% 30.5% 32.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
aeNebraska Senate
POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election
Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Nebraska Senate
Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 72.5%, Kalshi 73.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 28.5%, Kalshi 27.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Pete Ricketts 73% · Dan Osborn 28%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Pete Ricketts (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$328K71.5%Kalshi1.5M contracts · 73%/74%74.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+1.0ppDan Osborn (I)7 days agoPolymarket$199K28.5%Kalshi954K contracts · 27%/28%27.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nebraska Senate, snapshot Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT. Day Pete Ricketts · Polymarket Pete Ricketts · Kalshi Dan Osborn · Polymarket Dan Osborn · Kalshi 7 days ago 71.5% 74.0% 28.5% 27.0% 6 days ago 72.5% 74.0% 28.5% 27.0% 5 days ago 72.5% 74.0% 27.5% 28.0% 4 days ago 72.5% 74.0% 27.5% 26.0% 3 days ago 72.5% 74.0% 27.5% 24.0% 2 days ago 72.5% 75.0% 28.5% 25.0% yesterday 72.5% 75.0% 28.5% 27.0% today 72.5% 73.5% 28.5% 27.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
afNew Hampshire Senate
POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election
Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
New Hampshire Senate
Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 88.5%, Kalshi 89.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 11.5%, Kalshi 10.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Chris Pappas 89% · John E. Sununu 11%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Chris Pappas (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$169K89.5%Kalshi600K contracts · 89%/90%90.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.0ppJohn E. Sununu (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$170K10.5%Kalshi1.5M contracts · 10%/11%11.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. New Hampshire Senate, snapshot Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT. Day Chris Pappas · Polymarket Chris Pappas · Kalshi John E. Sununu · Polymarket John E. Sununu · Kalshi 7 days ago 89.5% 90.0% 10.5% 11.0% 6 days ago 89.5% 90.0% 11.5% 10.0% 5 days ago 88.5% 90.0% 12.5% 10.0% 4 days ago 88.5% 90.0% 12.5% 11.0% 3 days ago 88.5% 89.0% 12.5% 10.0% 2 days ago 88.5% 90.0% 11.5% 11.0% yesterday 88.5% 90.0% 11.5% 11.0% today 88.5% 89.5% 11.5% 10.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
acNorth Carolina Senate
POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election
Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
North Carolina Senate
Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.7pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 96.05%, Kalshi 95.35%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 3.75%, Kalshi 4.45%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.7pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Roy Cooper 95% · Michael Whatley 4.4%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Roy Cooper (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$113K96.3%Kalshi1.6M contracts · 95%/96%96.3%venue gap0.0pp7-day move-0.2ppMichael Whatley (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$118K3.75%Kalshi1.8M contracts · 4.1%/4.8%4.20%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. North Carolina Senate, snapshot Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT. Day Roy Cooper · Polymarket Roy Cooper · Kalshi Michael Whatley · Polymarket Michael Whatley · Kalshi 7 days ago 96.30% 96.30% 3.75% 4.20% 6 days ago 96.10% 96.00% 4.00% 4.00% 5 days ago 95.85% 95.40% 4.30% 5.20% 4 days ago 95.80% 95.30% 4.25% 4.90% 3 days ago 95.80% 95.50% 4.20% 5.50% 2 days ago 96.05% 95.40% 4.05% 5.50% yesterday 96.05% 95.20% 3.75% 5.40% today 96.05% 95.35% 3.75% 4.45% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
yOhio Senate
POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election
Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).
A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Ohio Senate
Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 65.0%, Kalshi 64.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 35.5%, Kalshi 36.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Sherrod Brown 65% · Jon Husted 36%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Sherrod Brown (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$751K61.5%Kalshi3.7M contracts · 64%/65%61.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+3.5ppJon Husted (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$527K38.5%Kalshi3.5M contracts · 36%/37%40.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-3.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio Senate, snapshot Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT. Day Sherrod Brown · Polymarket Sherrod Brown · Kalshi Jon Husted · Polymarket Jon Husted · Kalshi 7 days ago 61.5% 61.0% 38.5% 40.0% 6 days ago 61.5% 59.0% 39.5% 41.0% 5 days ago 61.5% 60.0% 39.5% 40.0% 4 days ago 61.5% 60.0% 38.5% 41.0% 3 days ago 61.5% 60.0% 38.5% 40.0% 2 days ago 65.0% 60.0% 35.5% 41.0% yesterday 65.0% 61.0% 35.5% 40.0% today 65.0% 64.5% 35.5% 36.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
uTexas Senate
POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election
James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).
The Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Texas Senate
Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 62.5%, Kalshi 61.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 38.5%, Kalshi 38.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: James Talarico 62% · Ken Paxton 39%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
James Talarico (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$1.8M62.5%Kalshi11M contracts · 61%/62%62.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppKen Paxton (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$2.1M37.5%Kalshi19M contracts · 38%/39%38.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas Senate, snapshot Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT. Day James Talarico · Polymarket James Talarico · Kalshi Ken Paxton · Polymarket Ken Paxton · Kalshi 7 days ago 62.5% 62.0% 37.5% 38.0% 6 days ago 62.5% 63.0% 35.5% 38.0% 5 days ago 64.5% 63.0% 36.5% 37.0% 4 days ago 62.5% 64.0% 37.5% 36.0% 3 days ago 62.5% 65.0% 37.5% 37.0% 2 days ago 62.5% 64.0% 38.5% 38.0% yesterday 62.5% 62.0% 38.5% 39.0% today 62.5% 61.5% 38.5% 38.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
Governors10 of 12
ahAlaska governor
POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election
Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).
Wilson holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Alaska governor
Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 21.5%, Kalshi 19.5%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 0.05%, Kalshi 0.75%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Bernadette Wilson 21% · Tom Begich 0.5%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Bernadette Wilson (R)7 days agoPolymarket$235K19.5%Kalshi77.7K contracts · 19%/20%21.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+2.0ppTom Begich (D)7 days agoPolymarket$174K1.25%Kalshi270K contracts · 0.6%/0.9%—venue gap—7-day move-1.2ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska governor, snapshot Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT. Day Bernadette Wilson · Polymarket Bernadette Wilson · Kalshi Tom Begich · Polymarket Tom Begich · Kalshi 7 days ago 19.5% 21.0% 1.25% — 6 days ago 19.5% 21.0% 1.25% 0.40% 5 days ago 19.5% 21.0% 0.60% 0.50% 4 days ago 21.5% 21.0% 0.05% 0.40% 3 days ago 21.5% 22.0% 0.05% 0.40% 2 days ago 21.5% 19.0% 0.05% 0.60% yesterday 21.5% 20.0% 0.05% 1.40% today 21.5% 19.5% 0.05% 0.75% ajArizona governor
POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election
Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about three points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Arizona governor
Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 90.5%, Kalshi 88.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 9.0%, Kalshi 10.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Katie Hobbs 89% · Andy Biggs 10%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Katie Hobbs (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$80.0K88.5%Kalshi400K contracts · 88%/89%85.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move+2.0ppAndy Biggs (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$65.9K12%Kalshi376K contracts · 10%/11%13%venue gap1.0pp7-day move-3.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Arizona governor, snapshot Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT. Day Katie Hobbs · Polymarket Katie Hobbs · Kalshi Andy Biggs · Polymarket Andy Biggs · Kalshi 7 days ago 88.5% 85.0% 12.0% 13.0% 6 days ago 88.5% 87.0% 11.5% 14.0% 5 days ago 87.5% 88.0% 11.5% 14.0% 4 days ago 88.5% 87.0% 11.5% 14.0% 3 days ago 88.5% 87.0% 10.5% 13.0% 2 days ago 88.5% 89.0% 10.5% 11.0% yesterday 90.5% 90.0% 9.0% 12.0% today 90.5% 88.5% 9.0% 10.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
anFlorida governor
POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election
Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).
Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Florida governor
Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 79.5%, Kalshi 79.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 20.5%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Byron Donalds 80% · David Jolly 21%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Byron Donalds (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$144K78.5%Kalshi1.9M contracts · 79%/80%78.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+1.0ppDavid Jolly (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$153K22.5%Kalshi1.4M contracts · 20%/21%23.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Florida governor, snapshot Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT. Day Byron Donalds · Polymarket Byron Donalds · Kalshi David Jolly · Polymarket David Jolly · Kalshi 7 days ago 78.5% 78.0% 22.5% 23.0% 6 days ago 78.5% 78.0% 20.5% 23.0% 5 days ago 78.5% 78.0% 20.5% 24.0% 4 days ago 79.5% 78.0% 20.5% 22.0% 3 days ago 79.5% 79.0% 20.5% 21.0% 2 days ago 79.5% 79.0% 20.5% 21.0% yesterday 79.5% 79.0% 20.5% 21.0% today 79.5% 79.5% 20.5% 20.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
agIowa governor
POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election
Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Iowa governor
Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 89.5%, Kalshi 88.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 11%, Kalshi 11%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Rob Sand 89% · Zach Lahn 11%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Rob Sand (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$135K86.5%Kalshi824K contracts · 88%/89%88.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+3.0ppZach Lahn (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$119K12.5%Kalshi1.1M contracts · 10%/12%13.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa governor, snapshot Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT. Day Rob Sand · Polymarket Rob Sand · Kalshi Zach Lahn · Polymarket Zach Lahn · Kalshi 7 days ago 86.5% 88.0% 12.5% 13% 6 days ago 87.5% 88.0% 12.5% 13% 5 days ago 90.5% 87.0% 9.5% 13% 4 days ago 90.5% 88.0% 9.5% 12% 3 days ago 89.0% 88.0% 11.0% 12% 2 days ago 89.5% 89.0% 11.5% 12% yesterday 89.5% 89.0% 11.0% 11% today 89.5% 88.5% 11.0% 11% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
aiMichigan governor
POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election
Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan governor
Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.8pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 95.2%, Kalshi 93.4%; John James (R): Polymarket 4.8%, Kalshi 6.3%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.8pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jocelyn Benson 94% · John James 5.6%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jocelyn Benson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$133K93.85%Kalshi94.5K contracts · 93%/94%91.80%venue gap2.0pp7-day move+1.3ppJohn James (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$188K6.3%Kalshi202K contracts · 6.0%/6.6%8.3%venue gap2.0pp7-day move-1.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan governor, snapshot Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT. Day Jocelyn Benson · Polymarket Jocelyn Benson · Kalshi John James · Polymarket John James · Kalshi 7 days ago 93.85% 91.8% 6.30% 8.3% 6 days ago 93.85% 93.3% 6.30% 7.6% 5 days ago 93.85% 93.6% 6.30% 8.0% 4 days ago 95.10% 93.6% 4.75% 7.4% 3 days ago 94.55% 94.1% 5.00% 6.5% 2 days ago 95.20% 94.2% 5.10% 6.9% yesterday 95.20% 93.6% 4.80% 6.8% today 95.20% 93.4% 4.80% 6.3% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
alNew York governor
POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election
Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
New York governor
Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.6pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 95.15%, Kalshi 93.95%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 4.65%, Kalshi 6.25%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.6pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Kathy Hochul 94% · Bruce Blakeman 6.2%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Kathy Hochul (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$89.8K95.85%Kalshi682K contracts · 94%/94%95.30%venue gap0.6pp7-day move-0.7ppBruce Blakeman (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$163K4.1%Kalshi2.6M contracts · 6.0%/6.5%5.7%venue gap1.6pp7-day move+0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. New York governor, snapshot Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT. Day Kathy Hochul · Polymarket Kathy Hochul · Kalshi Bruce Blakeman · Polymarket Bruce Blakeman · Kalshi 7 days ago 95.85% 95.30% 4.10% 5.70% 6 days ago 95.75% 95.40% 4.25% 5.60% 5 days ago 95.45% 95.00% 4.75% 5.80% 4 days ago 95.00% 95.30% 5.00% 6.00% 3 days ago 95.00% 93.90% 4.90% 6.50% 2 days ago 95.20% 94.00% 5.00% 6.30% yesterday 95.15% 94.40% 4.65% 6.20% today 95.15% 93.95% 4.65% 6.25% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
sOhio governor
POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election
Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).
Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Ohio governor
Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 71.5%, Kalshi 70.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 28.5%, Kalshi 29.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Amy Acton 71% · Vivek Ramaswamy 29%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Amy Acton (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$238K67.5%Kalshi1.1M contracts · 70%/71%70.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+4.0ppVivek Ramaswamy (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$203K32.5%Kalshi1.5M contracts · 29%/30%30.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-4.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio governor, snapshot Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT. Day Amy Acton · Polymarket Amy Acton · Kalshi Vivek Ramaswamy · Polymarket Vivek Ramaswamy · Kalshi 7 days ago 67.5% 70.0% 32.5% 30.0% 6 days ago 68.5% 68.0% 31.5% 33.0% 5 days ago 71.5% 69.0% 28.5% 31.0% 4 days ago 71.5% 69.0% 28.5% 32.0% 3 days ago 72.5% 69.0% 28.5% 31.0% 2 days ago 72.5% 69.0% 28.5% 31.0% yesterday 71.5% 70.0% 28.5% 31.0% today 71.5% 70.5% 28.5% 29.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
amPennsylvania governor
POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election
Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Pennsylvania governor
Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.4pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 97.40%, Kalshi 97.75%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.4%, Kalshi 2.1%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.4pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Josh Shapiro 98% · Stacy Garrity 2.1%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Josh Shapiro (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$10.7K97.6%Kalshi239K contracts · 98%/98%97.4%venue gap0.2pp7-day move-0.2ppStacy Garrity (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$46.4K2.35%Kalshi543K contracts · 1.8%/2.4%3.70%venue gap1.3pp7-day move+0.1ppEvery sample behind the chart. Pennsylvania governor, snapshot Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT. Day Josh Shapiro · Polymarket Josh Shapiro · Kalshi Stacy Garrity · Polymarket Stacy Garrity · Kalshi 7 days ago 97.60% 97.40% 2.35% 3.7% 6 days ago 97.40% 97.00% 1.90% 3.1% 5 days ago 97.90% 97.30% 2.10% 3.2% 4 days ago 98.00% 96.90% 1.90% 1.9% 3 days ago 97.95% 98.60% 2.10% 2.0% 2 days ago 97.75% 97.90% 2.35% 2.5% yesterday 97.40% 97.90% 2.40% 2.5% today 97.40% 97.75% 2.40% 2.1% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
akTexas governor
POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election
Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Texas governor
Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 76.55%, Kalshi 75.50%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 24.0%, Kalshi 25.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Greg Abbott 76% · Gina Hinojosa 25%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Greg Abbott (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$326K79.4%Kalshi807K contracts · 75%/76%77.0%venue gap2.4pp7-day move-2.9ppGina Hinojosa (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$249K21%Kalshi1.6M contracts · 25%/26%25%venue gap4.0pp7-day move+3.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas governor, snapshot Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT. Day Greg Abbott · Polymarket Greg Abbott · Kalshi Gina Hinojosa · Polymarket Gina Hinojosa · Kalshi 7 days ago 79.40% 77.0% 21.0% 25.0% 6 days ago 79.05% 82.0% 20.5% 18.0% 5 days ago 78.80% 82.0% 22.0% 20.0% 4 days ago 78.05% 80.0% 22.5% 20.0% 3 days ago 77.10% 81.0% 22.5% 20.0% 2 days ago 76.60% 78.0% 23.5% 23.0% yesterday 76.55% 76.0% 24.0% 26.0% today 76.55% 75.5% 24.0% 25.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
zWisconsin governor
POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election
David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).
An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Wisconsin governor
Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 80.5%, Kalshi 80.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 19.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: David Crowley 81% · Tom Tiffany 20%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
David Crowley (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$370K80.5%Kalshi525K contracts · 80%/81%81.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppTom Tiffany (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$354K18.5%Kalshi842K contracts · 19%/20%20.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Wisconsin governor, snapshot Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT. Day David Crowley · Polymarket David Crowley · Kalshi Tom Tiffany · Polymarket Tom Tiffany · Kalshi 7 days ago 80.5% 81.0% 18.5% 20.0% 6 days ago 80.5% 81.0% 19.5% 20.0% 5 days ago 80.5% 82.0% 19.5% 20.0% 4 days ago 80.5% 81.0% 19.0% 20.0% 3 days ago 80.5% 80.0% 19.5% 20.0% 2 days ago 80.5% 80.0% 19.5% 20.0% yesterday 80.5% 80.0% 19.5% 20.0% today 80.5% 80.5% 19.5% 19.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.
