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Political Guyentist

Saturday

People hold candles outdoors at night, with two seated women illuminated in the foreground, one covering her mouth.
NBC News
1usUpdate

Bend, Oregon, school shooter who killed three children and a teacher was a 16-year-old ex-student using a shotgun his mother reportedly bought

A father of two Silver Rail students, Kaylub Giamanco, followed him into the building and shot him dead.

A gunman killed three children and an adult at Silver Rail Elementary in Bend, Oregon, on Thursday, Oct. 15. The first 911 call came at 12:59 p.m., officers arrived at 1:02 and the shooter was down shortly after, but police had not said who killed him.

ContextBend's is the 36th shooting on K–12 school grounds this year, per a CNN analysis. Oregon's safe-storage law reaches the mother only if the shotgun got to her son because it was left unlocked. Even then the maximum is a $2,000 fine with no jail time. Prosecutors elsewhere have used homicide law instead. In Michigan, the parents of the 2021 Oxford High School shooter, who bought him the gun, were convicted of involuntary manslaughter in 2024 and are serving 10-year sentences. In Georgia, Colin Gray, who gave his 14-year-old son the rifle used at Apalachee High School in 2024, was convicted of second-degree murder in March and sentenced to 15 years in July, per CNN.

NBC NEWS12 sources

2usUpdateRussia diesel deal

EU leaders say they 'regret' Trump's lifting of Russian diesel sanctions; Trump calls Zelensky 'not a good guy'

The Friday, Oct. 16 summit text also welcomed €6.6 billion in EU military aid that member states agreed to release on Sept. 25.

- Oct. 9 — Trump struck a deal to bring in Russian diesel and said Ukraine needs “a new president.” A U.S. official told Axios the deal came after Zelensky ignored “half a dozen” U.S. requests to stop hitting Russian refineries. - Oct. 11 — Trump announced an immediate refinery-only energy ceasefire; Moscow never confirmed it, and Ukraine paused energy strikes for three days. - Oct. 15 — Ukraine hit a Russian refinery, saying Russia never stopped its attacks and accusing Washington of cutting intelligence and throttling Starlink.

ContextThe €6.6 billion had been stuck since spring 2023, when Hungary's government under Viktor Orbán blocked it. Trump's Oct. 11 truce follows earlier energy pauses that broke down or never took hold. ACLED, a conflict monitor, recorded energy strikes during the 30-day pause of March 2025. A January 2026 pause lasted nearly three days against the week Trump announced, and Russia never confirmed a September 2026 announcement. Ukraine's refinery strikes have set off a fuel crisis in Russia, per NBC News.

NBC NEWS17 sources

3uscontested

Trump waives the Russian energy tariffs and sanctions required by the Graham law he signed last month

Bloomberg reports the penalties were blocking his push to bring down diesel prices before the Nov. 3 midterms.

The penalties are mandatory, but the law itself lets the president waive them: under Section 115, he needs only to certify in writing to Congress that a waiver serves U.S. national interests, no vote is needed, and the waiver never expires. Section 117's 30-day vote to block covers only ending the law, not waivers. A separate Oct. 9 Treasury license already lets Russian diesel in through April 7, 2027.

ContextThe penalties are mandatory, but the law itself lets the president waive them: under Section 115, he needs only to certify in writing to Congress that a waiver serves U.S. national interests, no vote is needed, and the waiver never expires. Section 117's 30-day vote to block covers only ending the law, not waivers. A separate Oct. 9 Treasury license already lets Russian diesel in through April 7, 2027.

BLOOMBERG4 sources

4usFuel prices

Brent crude touches $110 a barrel, its first time there since May 20, after Saudi-led forces intercept missiles aimed at energy hubs

U.S. crude settled at $101.41 a barrel, its highest close since Sept. 17, per Reuters.

Brent started 2026 near $61 and closed at $72.48 on Feb. 27, the day before the U.S. and Israel struck Iran, per the EIA and Euronews. It passed $100 on March 12 as tankers stopped crossing the Strait of Hormuz, and peaked near $120 in the spring, per CNBC. A ceasefire and the mid-June deal to reopen the strait brought it back to about its pre-war price by late June, The New York Times reported. The $109.86 settlement on Friday, Oct. 16, is about 52% above that pre-war close and nearly 80% above a year earlier, per Trading Economics.

ContextBrent started 2026 near $61 and closed at $72.48 on Feb. 27, the day before the U.S. and Israel struck Iran, per the EIA and Euronews. It passed $100 on March 12 as tankers stopped crossing the Strait of Hormuz, and peaked near $120 in the spring, per CNBC. A ceasefire and the mid-June deal to reopen the strait brought it back to about its pre-war price by late June, The New York Times reported. The $109.86 settlement on Friday, Oct. 16, is about 52% above that pre-war close and nearly 80% above a year earlier, per Trading Economics.

FINANCIAL TIMES11 sources

5us

Treasury reports a $1.99 trillion federal deficit for fiscal 2026, the largest since fiscal 2021

Treasury puts the gap at an estimated 6.2% of the economy, up from 5.8% in fiscal 2025.

Where the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) says the $386 billion in new spending went: Net interest on the debt: +$115 billion Social Security: +$86 billion Medicare: +$77 billion Medicaid: +$55 billion Defense: +$48 billion

ContextRevenue lagged for two policy reasons. Corporate taxes fell $70 billion after the 2025 tax law's bigger investment write-offs, per CBO. And Treasury paid $145 billion in tariff refunds after the Supreme Court struck down much of Trump's first-year tariffs, Reuters reported. By CBO's preliminary figures, net interest took about 21 cents of each revenue dollar, against 11 cents in fiscal 2019. In dollars this is the third-largest deficit on record, behind fiscal 2020 and 2021, per Reuters and CBO. In February CBO had projected $1.9 trillion. Debt held by the public reached $32.4 trillion, about 100% of GDP, per CBO, and CBO projects it will pass the 1946 record of 106% in 2030, reaching 108%.

REUTERS8 sources

Saturday · The daily brief

Oct 172026

5 leads40 briefs24 min

BoardScroll

Executive summary5 stories

News news5

  1. Bend, Oregon, school shooter who killed three children and a teacher was a 16-year-old ex-student using a shotgun his mother reportedly boughtA father of two Silver Rail students, Kaylub Giamanco, followed him into the building and shot him dead.
  2. EU leaders say they 'regret' Trump's lifting of Russian diesel sanctions; Trump calls Zelensky 'not a good guy'The Friday, Oct. 16 summit text also welcomed €6.6 billion in EU military aid that member states agreed to release on Sept. 25.
  3. Trump waives the Russian energy tariffs and sanctions required by the Graham law he signed last monthBloomberg reports the penalties were blocking his push to bring down diesel prices before the Nov. 3 midterms.
  4. Brent crude touches $110 a barrel, its first time there since May 20, after Saudi-led forces intercept missiles aimed at energy hubsU.S. crude settled at $101.41 a barrel, its highest close since Sept. 17, per Reuters.
  5. Treasury reports a $1.99 trillion federal deficit for fiscal 2026, the largest since fiscal 2021Treasury puts the gap at an estimated 6.2% of the economy, up from 5.8% in fiscal 2025.

News news5 stories

Ongoing1 earlier update

This story has run 2 times, starting Oct 16.

  1. Gunman kills three children and one adult at Bend, Oregon, elementary school; police have not said who killed him
  2. UpdateBend, Oregon, school shooter who killed three children and a teacher was a 16-year-old ex-student using a shotgun his mother reportedly bought — this issue
NBC NEWSUpdate

Bend, Oregon, school shooter who killed three children and a teacher was a 16-year-old ex-student using a shotgun his mother reportedly bought

A father of two Silver Rail students, Kaylub Giamanco, followed him into the building and shot him dead.

Police say the 16-year-old who killed three children and a teacher at Silver Rail Elementary in Bend, Oregon, was a former special-needs student there. He went after a special-education classroom. The Washington Post and New York Post name him John J. Griffin II. PBS gives the name in a different order.

The victims. The children killed were 5, 8 and 11. The teacher, Megan Lambert, was 25. “She loved Silver Rail. This was her dream job,” her family said. A 7-year-old student and a 54-year-old teacher are critically injured.

The school. The first 911 call, at 12:59 p.m. local time, came from a driver who said they had been shot at. The school resource officer (a police officer assigned to schools) covers six to seven schools. The officer was not at Silver Rail that day.

The gun. Investigators believe the teen's mother, Shauntai Nickerson, bought the shotgun. “If I could have prevented this, I would have,” she said.

The politics. “When are we going to practice that same bravery that that bystander had?” asked Janelle Bynum (Rep-D Oregon). Aidan Johnston of Gun Owners of America said: “What did stop the mass murderer and save lives was an armed bystander with good aim.” ([TS]Per the police chief, the classroom shooting had already happened and a teacher was wrestling him when Giamanco fired.)

Still open. Police Chief Mike Krantz says how the teen came to have the shotgun is still under investigation. About 150 people, including the FBI, ATF and Oregon State Police, are working the case.

Catch upwhat happened before · 1 earlier issue

A gunman killed three children and an adult at Silver Rail Elementary in Bend, Oregon, on Thursday, Oct. 15. The first 911 call came at 12:59 p.m., officers arrived at 1:02 and the shooter was down shortly after, but police had not said who killed him.

Ongoing2 earlier updates6 days

This story has run 3 times over 6 days, starting Oct 11.

  1. UpdateTrump says Ukraine needs "a new president" and tells Zelensky to stop striking Russian oil refineries
  2. UpdateUkraine strikes a Russian refinery, ending the three-day energy-strike pause Trump demanded
  3. UpdateEU leaders say they 'regret' Trump's lifting of Russian diesel sanctions; Trump calls Zelensky 'not a good guy' — this issue
NBC NEWSUpdateRussia diesel deal

EU leaders say they 'regret' Trump's lifting of Russian diesel sanctions; Trump calls Zelensky 'not a good guy'

The Friday, Oct. 16 summit text also welcomed €6.6 billion in EU military aid that member states agreed to release on Sept. 25.

EU leaders closed their Brussels summit on Friday, Oct. 16, with written conclusions that “regret” the U.S. decision to temporarily lift sanctions on Russian diesel. That makes the objection the bloc's official line, not one minister's complaint. The text also urges other partners to “swiftly step up” support for Ukraine.

The real number. The €6.6 billion comes from the European Peace Facility, the EU's joint military-aid fund, and was agreed three weeks before the summit. Only €1 billion of it buys new equipment; €4.7 billion repays governments for aid already sent, per EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas. The leaders named no new weapons package.

Trump's verdict. Late on Thursday, Oct. 15, Trump told Newsmax the resumed refinery strikes were a “disgrace.” He called Volodymyr Zelensky (President, Ukraine) “not a good guy for us to deal with” and harder to deal with than Vladimir Putin (President, Russia).

Zelensky's reply. In Brussels he thanked Europe's “real leaders.” Asked if he felt betrayed, he said: “Really, yes... but it's a little bit more complicated than just my emotions or my feelings.” Guido Crosetto (Defense Minister, Italy) called U.S. limits on Ukraine “a complete mistake, a major mistake.”

Watch. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov sided with Trump the same day. Neither Kyiv nor Moscow reported new refinery strikes on Friday, Oct. 16, per NBC News.

Catch upwhat happened before · 2 earlier issues
  • Oct. 9 — Trump struck a deal to bring in Russian diesel and said Ukraine needs “a new president.” A U.S. official told Axios the deal came after Zelensky ignored “half a dozen” U.S. requests to stop hitting Russian refineries.
  • Oct. 11 — Trump announced an immediate refinery-only energy ceasefire; Moscow never confirmed it, and Ukraine paused energy strikes for three days.
  • Oct. 15 — Ukraine hit a Russian refinery, saying Russia never stopped its attacks and accusing Washington of cutting intelligence and throttling Starlink.
1 earlier issue
Ongoing27 earlier updates52 days

This story has run 28 times over 52 days, starting Aug 26.

  1. CIA chief Ratcliffe makes rare Moscow visit
  2. CIA chief reportedly warned Moscow against a limited Russian attack on NATO
  3. CIA chief secretly met Russian intelligence officials in Moscow
  4. UpdateCIA chief told Moscow to end the Ukraine war before Russia’s military and economy worsen
  5. Russian drone hits ammunition depot near Kyiv, killing 38; four remain missing
  6. Russia's finance minister returned to the G20 in person for the first time since the Ukraine invasion
  7. Witkoff and Kushner meet Putin in Moscow Sept. 5, Zelensky in Kyiv Sept. 6, carrying a U.S. proposal to end the war
  8. UpdatePutin orders 72-hour halt to strikes on Kyiv while Witkoff and Kushner visit, after a three-hour Kremlin meeting
  9. UpdateWitkoff and Kushner hold first Kyiv talks of the war, agreeing on next steps but no terms; announcement promised in weeks
  10. UpdateWitkoff says Moscow-Kyiv trip produced 'substantive progress' on scheduling more talks, with no date set and no terms disclosed
  11. UpdateRussia resumed strikes on Kyiv after the truce, killing 7; Trump and Putin then talked for an hour
  12. UpdateTrump says Russia's president wants a Ukraine peace deal after their phone call
  13. House schedules vote next week on authorizing 100% tariffs on Russian oil buyers
  14. UpdateVladimir Putin warned that sending European troops into Ukraine means war with Russia.
  15. Trump announced a Russia-Ukraine energy truce Kyiv calls conditional
  16. UpdateThe House voted 214-211 to advance 100% tariffs on buyers of Russian oil
  17. UpdateCongress sends Trump a bill letting him impose 100% tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil
  18. UpdateTrump signs the bill authorizing 100% tariffs on buyers of Russian oil
  19. Trump and Zelensky agree to New York talks, expected Sept. 22
  20. UpdateZelensky asks Trump for a mutual halt on energy and port strikes
  21. Zelensky (President, Ukraine) urges countries to limit trade with Russia to cut war funding
  22. UpdatePutin added a sale of Lukoil's foreign oil assets to US-Russia Ukraine talks; the buyers include Witkoff and Kushner business partners
  23. UpdateTreasury lifts U.S. sanctions on Russian diesel until April 7, 2027, after Trump says Russia will send 4.8 million tons
  24. UpdateRussian glide bombs kill 20 in Zaporizhzhia a day after the U.S. suspended Russian diesel sanctions; Putin tells Trump talks won't resume soon
  25. UpdateFour Republican senators join Democrats in demanding Trump reverse his Russian diesel deal, saying he skipped steps the law requires
  26. UpdateTrump defends letting Russian diesel into the U.S. as analysts say the 300,000-ton first shipment is too small to lower prices
  27. Update12 senators, six from each party, ask Trump to rescind his deal lifting U.S. sanctions on Russian diesel
  28. Trump waives the Russian energy tariffs and sanctions required by the Graham law he signed last month — this issue
BLOOMBERG

Trump waives the Russian energy tariffs and sanctions required by the Graham law he signed last month

Bloomberg reports the penalties were blocking his push to bring down diesel prices before the Nov. 3 midterms.

Donald Trump waived the large tariffs on Russian energy exports that the Graham sanctions law requires. That law puts tariffs and sanctions on Russian energy, and Trump signed it in September. It is named for Lindsey Graham (Sen-R South Carolina), and it made the penalties mandatory unless the president used its waiver.

Bloomberg reports the White House saw the penalties as an obstacle to its effort to lower diesel prices before the Nov. 3 midterm elections.

The real number. U.S. diesel averaged $6.18 a gallon the week of Oct. 12, per the Energy Information Administration (EIA). That is down from $6.53 the week of Sept. 21, the year's high in EIA's weekly series, but $2.51 above the same week a year earlier.

Red take

Trump was right to use the waiver Congress built into the law: the White House judged these tariffs an obstacle to cheaper diesel, which cost $6.18 a gallon on Oct. 12 against $3.49 in May 2025. The law named for Lindsey Graham, the South Carolina Republican senator, kept that escape hatch for the president, and refusing to use it would rank a show of pressure on Moscow above truckers and farmers paying nearly double at the pump.

Blue take

A sanctions law Trump signed in September now binds only when he chooses: its waiver clause needs no vote, never expires, and gives Congress no built-in way to overturn it. Treasury had already licensed Russian diesel through April 7, 2027, in an Oct. 9 decision. What the waiver adds, after Bloomberg reported a midterm motive, is a lesson for Moscow that American penalties can be switched off before an election.

Ongoing18 earlier updates38 days

This story has run 19 times over 38 days, starting Sep 9.

  1. Houthi missiles and drones hit 4 Saudi cities, wounding 73 and halting Aramco's 400,000-barrel-a-day Jazan refinery
  2. UpdateBrent oil exceeds $100 a barrel; US diesel reaches $5.94 a gallon
  3. Houthis capture Yemen's Mokha from Saudi-backed forces 46 miles from Bab el-Mandeb
  4. UpdateHouthi forces captured Mokha and Perim island in the 28-kilometer Bab el-Mandeb strait.
  5. UpdateA day after the Bab el-Mandeb capture, maritime monitors have recorded no new transit halts
  6. UpdateSaudi Arabia shuts Hormuz-bypass pipeline, oil rises more than $3 with 4% of supply at risk
  7. UpdateHouthis seize two more Red Sea islands as Saudi pipeline faces 3-to-5-week outage
  8. UpdateSaudi Arabia suspends loadings at its last open oil terminal; September cargoes cancelled
  9. Attacks on Saudi export pipeline push WTI crude to $107.02 a barrel, a 30-day high
  10. UpdateHouthi missiles hit Riyadh, burning a fuel depot near King Khalid airport
  11. UpdateSaudi Arabia says it intercepted a Houthi missile aimed at Riyadh
  12. UpdateTrump declined a prepared U.S. air campaign against the Houthis, giving Saudi Arabia intelligence and targeting data instead
  13. UpdateSaudi Arabia tested its shut east-west pipeline for a restart as oil fell below $98
  14. UpdateStrike on Riyadh airport kills 12, including an American; Trump says the U.S. "may" join Saudi strikes on the Houthis
  15. UpdateRiyadh airport hit again Sunday, Oct. 11, killing one; Saturday's strike toll rises to at least 13, including an American
  16. UpdateSaudi Arabia investigates why its air defenses failed to stop the Houthi strike that killed at least 13 at Riyadh's airport
  17. UpdateSaudi-led coalition bombs Houthi oil facilities and a fuel depot in Yemen after a Riyadh airport strike killed at least 13
  18. Houthi strike damages 3 floors of Aramco's Dhahran headquarters, including executive offices; no casualties
  19. Brent crude touches $110 a barrel, its first time there since May 20, after Saudi-led forces intercept missiles aimed at energy hubs — this issue
FINANCIAL TIMESFuel prices

Brent crude touches $110 a barrel, its first time there since May 20, after Saudi-led forces intercept missiles aimed at energy hubs

U.S. crude settled at $101.41 a barrel, its highest close since Sept. 17, per Reuters.

Brent, the global oil benchmark, touched $110 a barrel on Friday, Oct. 16, and sat near $109.75 late in the afternoon, per The Hill. That was its first time at $110 since May 20. The jump followed reports that Saudi-led forces intercepted missiles aimed at energy hubs. Regular gasoline averages $4.33 a gallon, per AAA. GasBuddy estimates Americans have spent $135 billion more on gasoline and diesel since March 1 than in the same stretch last year. Diesel prices are covered in the story on Trump's Russia sanctions waiver.

Still open. Reports so far describe interceptions, not damage. Neither Saudi Aramco nor the Saudi energy ministry has published any lost production or export volume.

Ongoing2 earlier updates11 days

This story has run 3 times over 11 days, starting Oct 6.

  1. Gross federal debt passes $40 trillion, above CBO's $39.4 trillion forecast for the end of fiscal 2026
  2. UpdateSocial Security raises benefits 3.6% for 2027, its largest yearly increase since 2023
  3. Treasury reports a $1.99 trillion federal deficit for fiscal 2026, the largest since fiscal 2021 — this issue
REUTERS

Treasury reports a $1.99 trillion federal deficit for fiscal 2026, the largest since fiscal 2021

Treasury puts the gap at an estimated 6.2% of the economy, up from 5.8% in fiscal 2025.

The federal government spent $1.99 trillion more than it took in during fiscal 2026 (the budget year that ended Sept. 30), Treasury reported Friday, Oct. 16. That is $217 billion more than fiscal 2025's $1.78 trillion and, per Reuters, the biggest yearly gap since fiscal 2021's $2.77 trillion, when pandemic relief swelled spending. Higher spending drove it, per Bloomberg and Reuters.

The real number. Outlays hit a record $7.40 trillion, up $386 billion, while receipts rose $169 billion to a record $5.40 trillion, per Treasury. Measured against the economy the rise is smaller: 6.2% of GDP against 5.8%, and Treasury would not say what GDP estimate it used, Reuters reported.

Still open. Bloomberg reports the result undercuts the administration's cost-cutting claims and keeps the debt on track for a record.

Where the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) says the $386 billion in new spending went:

  • Net interest on the debt: +$115 billion
  • Social Security: +$86 billion
  • Medicare: +$77 billion
  • Medicaid: +$55 billion
  • Defense: +$48 billion

Quick bites18

Courts3 bites

  1. Federal judge dismisses Trump administration lawsuit against New York City's sanctuary laws

    THE HILL

    A federal judge in Brooklyn ruled that federal law does not override New York City's limits on helping ICE. U.S. District Judge Ramon Reyes found the government lacked standing to sue. He added that the Tenth Amendment would block relief anyway. It bars the federal government from commandeering local officials.

  2. Appeals judges question DOJ claim that White House records belong to Trump personally

    NPR

    A federal appeals panel questioned the Justice Department's argument that papers created in the White House belong to Trump rather than the public. The Presidential Records Act, passed in 1978 after Nixon, made such records public property. NPR reports the case could end up at the Supreme Court; conservative lawyer Michael Edney told a Federalist Society webinar the administration "want[s] this to go to the Supreme Court."

  3. Judges, including eight Trump appointees, keep rejecting DOJ suits for states' unredacted voter rolls

    PROPUBLICAVoter-roll checks

    Since September 2025, DOJ has sued 30 states plus D.C. for unredacted voter rolls; judges threw out all 26 cases with final rulings, per ProPublica, while four are pending and one state settled.

    Who ruled, and what they saidJudges in the 26 decided cases: 8 Trump appointees, 4 Bush appointees, 14 Democratic appointees.4 details
    • Judges in the 26 decided cases: 8 Trump appointees, 4 Bush appointees, 14 Democratic appointees.
    • Judge David O. Carter: "The Court does not take lightly DOJ's obfuscation of its true motives."
    • Trump appointee Judge Lance Walker called DOJ's legal case "halfhearted."
    • The one appeal decided so far, in the Sixth Circuit, upheld the dismissal of the Michigan case.
Also tonight8 bites

  1. Trump denies ordering speed caps on Ukraine's Starshield terminals; nine senators ask Pentagon watchdog who did

    THE HILLUpdateRussia-Ukraine war

    Trump said on Friday, Oct. 16, that neither he nor Elon Musk ordered this week's speed caps on Starshield, the military Starlink service that Ukraine's drones and air defenses run on. “It wasn't me, and it wasn't Elon, as I understand,” he told reporters, per The Hill. Two U.S. officials and a Western official have told Reuters the order came from the White House. Nine senators, four of them Republicans, have asked the Pentagon's inspector general, Platte Moring, to find out who directed, approved or knew in advance about the caps, per ABC News. Their Oct. 15 letter asks him to confirm an investigation in writing and give a first briefing by Sunday, Nov. 1.

    • The Republican signers: Susan Collins (Sen-R Maine), John Cornyn (Sen-R Texas), Lisa Murkowski (Sen-R Alaska) and Thom Tillis (Sen-R North Carolina).
    • Trump also said he did not think service had been slowed at all. Zelensky said in Brussels the same day that speed was returning but not fully restored, per NBC News.
    • A Ukrainian official told Axios: “Our guys who speak to SpaceX say the White House was involved in the decision.”
    Ongoing2

    This story has run 3 times over 2 days, starting Oct 15.

    1. UpdateUkraine's military Starshield satellite terminals stop working above 160 km/h; Musk says the U.S. military and Trump set the limit
    2. UpdateTwo U.S. officials and a Western official say the order to cap Ukraine's Starshield terminals came from the White House
    3. UpdateTrump denies ordering speed caps on Ukraine's Starshield terminals; nine senators ask Pentagon watchdog who did — this issue

  2. Katie Zacharia is out as White House press secretary after five days, with no replacement named

    NBC NEWSUpdate

    Zacharia left Friday, Oct. 16, less than three weeks before the midterms, after holding one 14-minute briefing. The Guardian and The New York Times call it a firing; Trump denied firing her, per Fox News. NBC reports that a replacement is not likely soon.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 4 earlier issues
    • Oct. 9 — Trump named Truth Social adviser Katie Zacharia to replace Karoline Leavitt, who left in late August.
    • Oct. 13 — CNN surfaced her conspiracy-laced posts; her first briefing ran 14 minutes and took questions from three outlets.
    • Oct. 16 — Reports showed she failed the 2011 California bar yet called herself a lawyer for years; Trump had introduced her as "an attorney."
    3 earlier issues
    By the numbersTenure: 5 days per NBC, The Hill, TIME, The Guardian and The New York Times; Fox News counts 7.2 details
    • Tenure: 5 days per NBC, The Hill, TIME, The Guardian and The New York Times; Fox News counts 7.
    • For comparison, Anthony Scaramucci lasted 11 days as Trump's communications director in 2017.
    Ongoing4

    This story has run 5 times over 7 days, starting Oct 10.

    1. Trump names Truth Social adviser Katie Zacharia White House press secretary, replacing Karoline Leavitt
    2. UpdateKatie Zacharia replaces Karoline Leavitt as White House press secretary as CNN surfaces her conspiracy-laced posts
    3. UpdatePress secretary Katie Zacharia's first briefing lasted 14 minutes and took questions from three outlets
    4. UpdatePress secretary Katie Zacharia failed the 2011 California bar but called herself a lawyer for years
    5. UpdateKatie Zacharia is out as White House press secretary after five days, with no replacement named — this issue

  3. DHS Secretary Mullin says the Omar case is headed to a grand jury; her lawyers want seized items back

    CBS NEWSUpdate

    Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin says Ilhan Omar's (Rep-D Minnesota) case, "a strong case" built on a judge-signed warrant and others served Monday, Oct. 12, will go to a grand jury. Omar is uncharged, her lawyers want the seized items back, and Trump officials who examined her in 2019 found no citizenship problems.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 3 earlier issues
    • Oct. 12 — Federal agents searched Omar's Washington home in a criminal immigration-fraud probe over papers her late father filed when she was a child; she became a citizen in 2000, at 17.
    • Oct. 13 — D.C. U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro told Fox News her office is examining Omar's financial disclosures, which valued husband Tim Mynett's two businesses at $15,000–$51,000 for 2023 and $6 million–$30 million for 2024; an April amendment, which Omar's office blamed on an accounting error, cut the couple's reported assets to $18,004–$95,000. Trump said he takes "no position" on deporting her.
    • Oct. 14 — Reports showed agents took her personal phone and a Minnesota grand jury subpoenaed her relatives, as investigators examined whether her age was falsified.
    2 earlier issues
    Where it standsMullin: "We had a judge sign it, and we expect to be able to take the case to a grand jury… it's a strong case."3 details
    • Mullin: "We had a judge sign it, and we expect to be able to take the case to a grand jury… it's a strong case."
    • Omar's lawyers asked federal prosecutors to return the items seized from her Washington home.
    • Omar calls the investigation political; it concerns immigration papers her family filed decades ago.
    Ongoing3

    This story has run 4 times over 4 days, starting Oct 13.

    1. Federal agents search Rep. Ilhan Omar's home in a criminal immigration-fraud probe, 22 days before her election
    2. UpdateFederal prosecutor Jeanine Pirro opens a review of Ilhan Omar's financial disclosures a day after agents searched her home; Trump says he takes 'no position' on deporting her
    3. UpdateAgents seized Ilhan Omar's phone in the search of her home, and a Minnesota grand jury has subpoenaed her relatives
    4. UpdateDHS Secretary Mullin says the Omar case is headed to a grand jury; her lawyers want seized items back — this issue

  4. Federal probe of letters with unknown substances widens to Republican senators Collins, Cruz, Ricketts and Rounds

    NBC NEWS

    Earlier letters went to at least 26 state election offices and at least 22 offices of congressional Democrats, per NBC News; Pete Ricketts (Sen-R Nebraska) said tests showed the powder sent to his Omaha office was not harmful.

    Who got mail15+ House members said their offices received mailings Friday, Oct. 16 (The Hill).2 details
    • 15+ House members said their offices received mailings Friday, Oct. 16 (The Hill).
    • Mike Rounds (Sen-R South Dakota), Ricketts and Ted Cruz reported letters at their state offices.

  5. Israeli settlers beat Washington Post photographer Heidi Levine and burn Palestinian olive harvest in West Bank

    NBC NEWS

    Levine, who was marked as press, is in stable condition in a Ramallah hospital; Netanyahu's office said the facts were unclear, and Post editor Matt Murray replied that the beating was "indisputable."

    • About 80 settlers descended on the grove, per Reuters witnesses cited by NBC News.
    • Injuries are disputed: a local official told the BBC 12 Palestinians were hurt, four of them Palestinian-Americans; Palestinian medics told NBC 2 went to the hospital.
    • NBC counts 170+ settler attacks in the West Bank since Sept. 27.

  6. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declines to preview Oct. 27-28 meeting; rate hike odds fall to 28%

    THE HILLUpdateInflation and rates

    Warsh said the economy has "broadly conformed" to expectations since September's hike and said "I don't prejudge meetings," pushing CME FedWatch odds of an October hike down to 28%, against 22% before the inflation report.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 14 earlier issues
    • Sep. 14 — The 10-year Treasury yield topped 5% for the first time since October 2023 as Brent crude hit $108.50.
    • Sep. 16 — The Fed raised its rate a quarter point to 3.75%-4%, its first hike since July 2023. Trump demanded rates of "1%, or less."
    • Sep. 22–24 — Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee warned that beating inflation would be "painful." Fed Governor Michael Barr said more hikes were likely.
    • Oct. 1–4 — August PCE inflation came in at 3.4%, under the 3.7% forecast. Weak jobs data then cut bets on an October hike.
    • Oct. 8 — Fed minutes showed 16 of 18 officials expected at least one more hike this year.
    • Oct. 9 — The White House set a closed Nov. 5 hearing, run by a committee of Trump appointees, on whether there is "cause" to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook.
    • Oct. 14–15 — September consumer prices rose 3.7% and producer prices rose 6.3%.
    13 earlier issues
    Rate hike odds this week (CME FedWatch)Before the Oct. 14 CPI report: 22% (Axios; economist Justin Wolfers)3 details
    • Before the Oct. 14 CPI report: 22% (Axios; economist Justin Wolfers)
    • After it: 50% per Axios, 44% per Wolfers, readings taken at different times
    • Warsh called the AI investment boom "probably the most important thing" lifting the global economy (Axios)
    Ongoing14

    This story has run 15 times over 36 days, starting Sep 11.

    1. August inflation holds at 3.4% annually; gasoline drives monthly increase
    2. Consumer prices rose 0.4% in August and 3.4% over the year, lifting September Fed rate hike odds above 80%
    3. Trump threatens trade cutoff with some nations unless Fed lowers rates despite 3.4% inflation
    4. Update10-year Treasury yield hit 5.014% Monday, Sept. 14, first time since October 2023
    5. Federal Reserve is expected to raise its benchmark rate a quarter point on Wednesday, Sept. 16, its first hike in three years.
    6. UpdateFed raises its benchmark rate a quarter point to 3.75%-4%, its first increase since July 2023
    7. UpdateChicago Fed's Goolsbee says getting inflation to 2% will be 'painful' and require pushing employment below target
    8. Fed Governor Michael Barr says more rate increases are likely to counter inflation
    9. UpdateAugust PCE inflation was 3.4%, below the 3.7% forecast, cutting October Fed hike odds to 35% from 45%
    10. Markets pull back bets on October Fed and ECB rate hikes after weak US jobs data
    11. UpdateFed minutes show most officials expect another rate hike by year end
    12. Trump sets a closed White House hearing for Nov. 5 on whether he has cause to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook
    13. UpdateConsumer prices rose 3.7% in the year to September, up from 3.4%, as increases spread beyond gasoline
    14. UpdateProducer prices rose 6.3% in the year to September, the most since December 2022, with fuel half the gain
    15. UpdateFed Chair Kevin Warsh declines to preview Oct. 27-28 meeting; rate hike odds fall to 28% — this issue

  7. US measles cases reach 4,410 this year, nearly double last year's 2,289

    THE HILLUpdateMeasles outbreak

    The CDC counts 4,410 measles cases in 2026, per ABC News. About 96% are among people who are unvaccinated or whose status is unknown. Pennsylvania alone reports 6 measles-related deaths.

    Oct. 16 — With Pennsylvania's case count at 1,222, the CDC sent an outbreak investigator to the state.

  8. Centcom says US naval blockade has cost Iran $25 billion in oil revenue

    THE HILLIran war

    Centcom chief Adm. Brad Cooper estimates the US naval blockade has cost Iran $25 billion in oil revenue; the reports give no calculation behind the figure, so it is Centcom's own estimate, not an independent count. He said militias across the region are "withholding payments for their soldiers in order to funnel money back to the IRGC, which also isn't paying its troops."

    How big $25 billion isThe blockade began April 13, was lifted June 14 and was reimposed July 14, per Reuters and Vortexa tanker tracking.3 details
    • The blockade began April 13, was lifted June 14 and was reimposed July 14, per Reuters and Vortexa tanker tracking. That is about five months in force.
    • Iran earned about $45 billion from petroleum exports in all of 2025, per OPEC, so the claimed loss is more than half a normal year's take.
    • Before the blockade Iran shipped about 1.84 million barrels a day (March, Kpler data via Reuters); Vortexa says its seaborne crude exports have been zero since the second week of September.
Elections7 bites

  1. DOJ warns California officials who count suspected noncitizens' ballots they risk federal prosecution

    PBS NEWSHOURUpdate

    Acting Deputy Attorney General Trent McCotter wrote to L.A. County Counsel, copying Secretary of State Shirley Weber and Registrar Dean Logan, that anyone who "knowingly" counts ballots from voters federal agencies flag as noncitizens risks "becoming aiders and abettors to a federal crime."

    Catch upwhat happened before · 2 earlier issues

    The Justice Department gave Los Angeles County 48 hours, to noon Thursday, Oct. 15, to check the citizenship of an undisclosed list of mail voters and hold their ballots, without saying how it built the list. When the deadline passed, DOJ sued California and the county on Oct. 15 to keep about 20,000 of those ballots uncounted.

    • About 20,000 voters' ballots are the ones DOJ wants held until their citizenship is confirmed.
    • Federal law restricts systematic voter-roll maintenance within 90 days of a federal election; the Nov. 3 election is 18 days away.
    • California says the department's method for identifying noncitizens is sloppy.
    1 earlier issue
    Ongoing2

    This story has run 3 times over 2 days, starting Oct 15.

    1. Justice Department orders California to check citizenship of an undisclosed list of mail voters and hold their ballots by noon Thursday, Oct. 15
    2. UpdateJustice Department sues California and Los Angeles County to hold uncounted the mail ballots of about 20,000 people it calls likely noncitizens
    3. UpdateDOJ warns California officials who count suspected noncitizens' ballots they risk federal prosecution — this issue

  2. Democrats outraised Republicans $253M to $56M in 14 of 15 competitive Senate races

    NBC NEWSUpdateBattle for the Senate

    Democratic candidates in the 15 Senate races NBC News rates as competitive raised $253 million from July through September. Their Republican rivals raised $56 million, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Republicans raised more in only one of those races: Minnesota, where Michele Tafoya is running against Peggy Flanagan, the state's lieutenant governor. GOP outside groups funded by megadonors are pouring money into ads to make up the gap, NBC reports.

    On Oct. 16, Q3 reports showed Talarico raising $64 million in Texas against $18 million for Paxton and his allies. They also showed Democrats outraising Republicans across Senate races, including Troy Jackson's roughly 4-to-1 edge over Susan Collins in Maine.

    In Ohio, former senator Sherrod Brown raised $23.1M to Jon Husted's (Sen-R Ohio) $4.8M.

  3. Musk's midterm spending tops $276 million, close to his entire 2024 outlay

    ABC NEWSUpdate

    Elon Musk has given more than $276 million to Republican groups for the midterms, ABC News tallies from FEC filings. That nears the $277 million he had given in the 2024 election by December 2024, per CBS News. Year-end filings later put his 2024 total above $290 million, per CNN. Talarico, the Texas Democrat much of the money targets, cast himself as David: "We are going up against our own Goliaths, those billionaire mega-donors," per PBS.

    In September, Musk gave the Senate GOP's super PAC, the Senate Leadership Fund, $158 million: $75 million on Sept. 9 and $83 million on Sept. 23. The fund routed it to a Texas super PAC backing Paxton's Senate bid against Talarico.

    Where the $276 million went, per ABC$158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund, passed on to Texas PAC to back Ken Paxton.4 details
    • $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund, passed on to Texas PAC to back Ken Paxton.
    • $76 million-plus to Musk's own America PAC; CBS reports more than $80 million.
    • $20 million to the Congressional Leadership Fund, the House GOP super PAC.
    • $22 million more: $10 million to a second pro-Paxton super PAC, $10 million to the Republican Governors Association and $2 million to the Republican Attorneys General Association.

  4. Cook Political Report shifts 11 more House race ratings toward Democrats, nine of them in Republican-held or open seats

    THE WASHINGTON POSTBattle for the House

    The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper, moved 11 House races toward Democrats on Friday, Oct. 16, a week after shifting 18, per Newsmax. Nine of the 11 are Republican-held or open seats, and most still favor the GOP. Cook says Republicans' troubles are sharpest in Midwestern red states, where voters are frustrated with how both federal and state governments have handled the economy. For scale: Cook's Oct. 9 ratings had 21 Toss Ups and 213 seats in Democratic columns, five short of a 218-seat majority, per Votendi.

    The 11 movesTo Toss Up: Montana's open 1st District, which Trump won by 12 points in 2024; Republican Aaron Flint faces Democrat Sam Forstag.4 details
    • To Toss Up: Montana's open 1st District, which Trump won by 12 points in 2024; Republican Aaron Flint faces Democrat Sam Forstag.
    • Likely to Lean Republican: Brad Finstad (Rep-R Minnesota), Mike Turner (Rep-R Ohio), Mike Carey (Rep-R Ohio), and the open New York 21st and South Carolina 1st.
    • Solid to Likely Republican: Derek Schmidt (Rep-R Kansas), Mike Flood (Rep-R Nebraska) and Florida's open 16th.
    • Better for Democratic incumbents: Jared Moskowitz (Rep-D Florida) and Greg Landsman (Rep-D Ohio).

  5. Sullivan breaks with Trump on Russian diesel deal in final toss-up Alaska Senate debate with Peltola

    NBC NEWSAlaska Senate race

    At their final debate on Thursday, Oct. 15, Dan Sullivan (Sen-R Alaska) was asked about the White House decision to let Russian diesel onto the world market. "I just led the effort on a Russia sanctions act that passed the Congress, so I'm opposed to that," he said, per NBC News. Treasury's Oct. 9 license allows the Russian diesel through April 7, 2027. Sullivan also said the Iran war "needs to end soon" because its energy costs are too high. He attacked his challenger, former Democratic House member Mary Peltola, over her lobbying.

    Key detailsNBC News and Fox News both rate the race a toss-up.2 details
    • NBC News and Fox News both rate the race a toss-up.
    • Peltola tied Sullivan's support for the Iran war to higher prices and pointed to his rising wealth in 12 years in office.
    Chart · pipeline render▲ label over mark

    U.S. average retail diesel price

    U.S. average retail diesel price Monthly last weekly observation Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EMD_EPD2D_PTE_NUS_DPG), dollars per gallon $3.00 $4.00 $5.00 $6.00 $7.00 $3.72 $6.18 June 2022 record $5.81 2022-06-27: June 2022 record $5.81 2021-11-29 2023-02-27 2024-05-27 2025-07-28 2026-10-12
    Source: Sullivan and Peltola trade lies, lobbying and cue-card jabs in final Alaska debatePOLI

  6. Asked when she stopped Trump, Collins cited her failed Hegseth vote; Jackson told her to 'shut up'

    THE WASHINGTON POSTMaine Senate race

    Troy Jackson (D-ME) told Susan Collins (Sen-R Maine) "Oh, shut up." She had just called a heckling data-center protester "one of Troy's supporters." Collins later named her vote against Hegseth as a time she changed an outcome against Trump. The moderator replied, "So that didn't change the outcome."

    Also from the debateCollins cited a Bangor Daily News analysis that her vote was decisive 56 times.3 details
    • Collins cited a Bangor Daily News analysis that her vote was decisive 56 times.
    • Collins said she does not regret voting to confirm RFK Jr.
    • Cook, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball all rate the race a toss-up.

  7. Trump tells Georgia rally Ossoff 'was never elected' and repeats his $5,000 'Trump dividend' check pledge

    ABC NEWSGeorgia Senate race

    Days after the final Senate debate, Trump rallied in Dalton on Friday, Oct. 16. He repeated false 2020 fraud claims, saying Jon Ossoff (Sen-D Georgia) "was never elected." Georgia certified Ossoff's January 2021 runoff win. About 1,200 people came out for Senate candidate Mike Collins (Rep-R Georgia) and governor nominee Rick Jackson, per the Guardian. Trump again promised a $5,000 "Trump dividend" check. He first pledged it on Sept. 9 to every adult citizen if Republicans keep the House and Senate. Only Congress can authorize the payments (PBS). The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget puts one round at $1.2 trillion, against tariff revenue of under $200 billion a year.

    The state of the racesOssoff leads by about 9 points, 52% to 43%, in the FiftyPlusOne polling average (Oct. 14); Trafalgar Group's Oct. 7–9 poll of…4 details
    • Ossoff leads by about 9 points, 52% to 43%, in the FiftyPlusOne polling average (Oct. 14); Trafalgar Group's Oct. 7–9 poll of 1,101 likely voters had him up 8.
    • ABC rates the Senate race Likely Democrat and the governor's race a toss-up.
    • Top GOP outside groups slowed or stopped spending in Georgia and North Carolina to shift money to Kansas and South Carolina (Politico).
    • Jackson is largely funding his governor's race with his own money.

Elections22 races

The midterms · 17 days out · November 3, 2026

D or R take the House / Senate?

Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT

U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 91%, Kalshi 90%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 65%, Kalshi 63%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

U.S. House — Democrats take it, 90.15–90.50%
91%90%chance Democrats take it · 0.4pp apart · neither venue moved this week
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 91% and Kalshi 90%.
U.S. Senate — Democrats take it, 62.5–64.5%
65%63%chance Democrats take it · 2.0pp apart · both venues up this week
U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 65% and Kalshi 63%.

3 closest races

  • aaGeorgia governorJackson vs. BottomsBottoms50.5%Jackson52.5%books split

    POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election

    Rick Jackson (R) faces Keisha Lance Bottoms (D).

    Georgia's governor's office is open, and the only race here where the two venues do not agree on who is ahead.

    The books name different leaders

    Georgia governor

    Each line is one book’s lead — the gap between the two candidates, signed. Zero is a tie, and the two venues are on opposite sides of it.

    Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT
    widest venue gap 4.0pp

    Georgia governor. Lead in percentage points, positive to Rick Jackson. Kalshi: Jackson ahead by 5 points. Polymarket: Bottoms ahead by 2 points. Every day is in the table below.

    Jackson aheadBottoms ahead10%tied10%7d agotodayJackson +5%KalshiBottoms +2%Polymarket

    today

    • Jackson+5%Kalshi
    • Bottoms+2%Polymarket
    • Jackson48.5%Polymarket
    • Jackson52.5%Kalshi
    • Bottoms50.5%Polymarket
    • Bottoms47.5%Kalshi

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. The lead is the gap between the two, in points. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • abNevada governorAaron Ford 54.0%▲1.2Joe Lombardo 46.5%

    POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election

    Aaron Ford (D) faces Joe Lombardo (R).

    Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.

    Two markets, one question

    Nevada governor

    Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nevada governor. Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 53.5%, Kalshi 54.5%; Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 47.5%, Kalshi 45.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • wIowa SenateAshley Hinson 57.5%▲0.2Josh Turek 42.5%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election

    Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).

    An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa Senate

    Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 58.5%, Kalshi 56.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 41.5%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

The other 19 races22 races · 13 still in doubt · Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT · markets, not polling

Senate9 of 10

  • vAlaska SenateMary Peltola 73.5%▲0.6Dan Sullivan 26.0%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election

    Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).

    A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska Senate

    Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 73.5%, Kalshi 73.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 25.5%, Kalshi 26.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • adGeorgia SenateJon Ossoff 95.60%Collins 4.42%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election

    Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia Senate

    Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.1pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 95.85%, Kalshi 95.35%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 3.90%, Kalshi 4.95%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.1pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • tMaine SenateTroy Jackson 58.5%▲0.2Susan Collins 42.0%

    POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election

    Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).

    Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Maine Senate

    Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 59.5%, Kalshi 57.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 41.5%, Kalshi 42.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • xMichigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed 68.5%▲0.9Mike Rogers 31.5%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election

    Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan Senate

    Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 69.5%, Kalshi 67.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 32.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aeNebraska SenatePete Ricketts 73.0%Dan Osborn 28.0%

    POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election

    Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Nebraska Senate

    Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 72.5%, Kalshi 73.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 28.5%, Kalshi 27.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • afNew Hampshire SenateChris Pappas 89.0%11.0%Sununu

    POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election

    Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    New Hampshire Senate

    Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 88.5%, Kalshi 89.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 11.5%, Kalshi 10.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • acNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 95.70%Whatley 4.10%

    POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election

    Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    North Carolina Senate

    Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.7pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 96.05%, Kalshi 95.35%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 3.75%, Kalshi 4.45%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.7pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • yOhio SenateSherrod Brown 64.8%▲3.4Jon Husted 36.0%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election

    Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).

    A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio Senate

    Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 65.0%, Kalshi 64.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 35.5%, Kalshi 36.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • uTexas SenateJames Talarico 62.0%▲0.6Ken Paxton 38.5%

    POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election

    James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).

    The Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas Senate

    Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 62.5%, Kalshi 61.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 38.5%, Kalshi 38.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Governors10 of 12

  • ahAlaska governor20.50%▲0.279.1%WilsonBegich 0.40%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election

    Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).

    Wilson holds a clear lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska governor

    Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 21.5%, Kalshi 19.5%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 0.05%, Kalshi 0.75%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • ajArizona governorKatie Hobbs 89.5%▲2.79.8%Biggs

    POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election

    Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about three points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Arizona governor

    Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 90.5%, Kalshi 88.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 9.0%, Kalshi 10.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • anFlorida governorByron Donalds 79.5%▲2.0Jolly 20.5%

    POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election

    Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).

    Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Florida governor

    Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 79.5%, Kalshi 79.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 20.5%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • agIowa governorRob Sand 89.0%▲1.711.0%Lahn

    POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election

    Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa governor

    Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 89.5%, Kalshi 88.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 11%, Kalshi 11%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aiMichigan governorJocelyn Benson 94.3%▲1.6James 5.5%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election

    Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan governor

    Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.8pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 95.2%, Kalshi 93.4%; John James (R): Polymarket 4.8%, Kalshi 6.3%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.8pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • alNew York governorKathy Hochul 94.55%Blakeman 5.45%

    POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election

    Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    New York governor

    Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.6pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 95.15%, Kalshi 93.95%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 4.65%, Kalshi 6.25%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.6pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • sOhio governorAmy Acton 71.0%▲2.2Vivek Ramaswamy 29.0%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election

    Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).

    Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio governor

    Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 71.5%, Kalshi 70.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 28.5%, Kalshi 29.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • amPennsylvania governorJosh Shapiro 97.58%▲0.6Garrity 2.25%

    POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election

    Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Pennsylvania governor

    Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.4pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 97.40%, Kalshi 97.75%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.4%, Kalshi 2.1%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.4pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • akTexas governorGreg Abbott 76.03%▲1.924.75%Hinojosa

    POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election

    Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas governor

    Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 76.55%, Kalshi 75.50%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 24.0%, Kalshi 25.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • zWisconsin governorDavid Crowley 80.5%▲0.319.5%Tiffany

    POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election

    David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).

    An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Wisconsin governor

    Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 80.5%, Kalshi 80.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 19.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Oct 16, 10:38 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.

14 stories that didn't make the cutSeen by the desk, ranked, and not run. The number is where each stood in the day's order.
  • 47Backlash over Trump's diesel export deal with RussiaBacklash over Trump's diesel export deal with Russia
  • 48Hot September inflation report undercuts Trump's economic claimsHot September inflation report undercuts Trump's economic claims
  • 49Election officials lose federal election-security briefingsElection officials lose federal election-security briefings
  • 50Mamdani and NY Democrats urge parking lot owners to bar ICEMamdani and NY Democrats urge parking lot owners to bar ICE
  • 51Trump says 'zero chance' of replacing Susie Wiles amid West Wing power struggleTrump says 'zero chance' of replacing Susie Wiles amid West Wing power struggle
  • 52Fallout from Hegseth's scrapped plan to livestream Hasan executionFallout from Hegseth's scrapped plan to livestream Hasan execution
  • 53Russia steps up efforts to influence US votersRussia steps up efforts to influence US voters
  • 54GOP local boards restrict Sunday votingGOP local boards restrict Sunday voting
  • 55FEMA lays groundwork to shift disaster burden to statesFEMA lays groundwork to shift disaster burden to states
  • 56Arizona joins lawsuit over Colorado River cutsArizona joins lawsuit over Colorado River cuts
  • 57Carney warns US trying to 'break' Canada ahead of Alberta referendumCarney warns US trying to 'break' Canada ahead of Alberta referendum
  • 58Putin says Russia building non-negotiable 'security zone' in UkrainePutin says Russia building non-negotiable 'security zone' in Ukraine
  • 59Ship attacks near Hormuz hit record highShip attacks near Hormuz hit record high
  • 60Anthropic quietly pitches its own AI safety billAnthropic quietly pitches its own AI safety bill