[UPDATE] Trump defends letting Russian diesel into the U.S. as analysts say the 300,000-ton first shipment is too small to lower prices

U.S. diesel averaged $6.27 a gallon on Monday, Oct. 12, per AAA, against $3.67 a year earlier.

Donald Trump on Monday, Oct. 12, defended his deal letting Russian diesel be sold into U.S. and world markets, posting that the "European Union paid Russia 250 Billion Dollars for Energy." He gave no period; ABC News says CREA estimates of EU spending on Russian fossil fuels since the 2022 invasion roughly match. The promise. Trump said Russia would supply 300,000 tons immediately and 500,000 tons in November, then 1 million and later 3 million tons, depending on refinery conditions. (TS: No diesel cargo is verified yet. The tanker billed as first, Minerva Zen, carried fertilizer, per its operator.) Alexander Novak (Deputy Prime Minister, Russia) told Tass that exports could eventually reach 3 million tonnes a month. The math. Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates put the first release at about 75,000 barrels a day. Global diesel demand runs about 28 million barrels a day. "I don't think that 75,000 barrels a day is enough to make a difference," Lipow said. The pushback. Don Bacon (Rep-R Nebraska) wrote on X: "Propping up Putin's war economy is morally wrong as he uses that money to bomb cities." A senior administration official told Axios that Trump is "laser-focused on bringing down costs, whether it's diesel with the Russians or importing Argentine beef."

PREVIOUSLY

Sept. 13–15 — Putin warned European troops in Ukraine would mean war; Trump then announced a Russia-Ukraine energy truce that Kyiv called conditional.
Sept. 16–19 — Congress passed, 214-211 in the House, and Trump signed a law allowing tariffs on countries buying Russian oil.
Sept. 21–24 — Trump pressed Ukraine to stop hitting Russian refineries over diesel prices; Zelensky sought a mutual halt on energy strikes.
Oct. 4 — Putin added a sale of Lukoil's foreign assets, with buyers tied to Witkoff and Kushner partners, to the talks.
Oct. 10 — Treasury lifted sanctions on Russian diesel through April 7, 2027, with no volume cap or ceasefire condition.
Oct. 11 — Russian glide bombs killed 20 in Zaporizhzhia; Putin told Trump talks would not resume soon.
Oct. 12 — Four Republican senators joined Democrats demanding a reversal, saying Trump skipped steps the 2022 import-ban law requires.

Where high diesel prices already reach people's bills:

FedEx Ground's fuel surcharge is 28.75% for Oct. 12–18; it was 25% for July 13–19.
About 3% of U.S. households heat with oil, mostly in the Northeast; EIA forecasts their winter fuel spending 21% above last winter.
A July Joint Economic Committee minority analysis estimated $1.4 billion in extra planting-season diesel costs for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton and rice.