Political Guyentist

1us2026 midterms

Pentagon tells Central Command to ready new Iran strike options the White House wants usable before the Nov. 3 midterms

Trump has not decided and no date is set; if major combat resumes, targets would include Iran's energy, infrastructure and nuclear sites.

Why limited strikes would not reopen Gulf oil before Election Day: Strait of Hormuz oil flow, first half of 2025: 20.9 million barrels a day (EIA) Share of world petroleum use that passed through it: about one-fifth (EIA) Saudi and UAE pipelines that can bypass the strait: about 4.7 million barrels a day (EIA)

ContextThe war with Iran is in its eighth month, and about 50,000 U.S. troops in the region are within reach of Iranian retaliation. If major combat resumes, targets would include Iran's energy, infrastructure and nuclear sites. Trump's security team met for hours at Camp David on Friday, Oct. 2; an Israeli official said part of the talk covered restarting combat.

AXIOS3 sources

2usUpdateInflation and the Fed

Fed minutes show most officials expect another rate hike by year end

16 of 18 officials projected at least one more increase this year, but futures traders bet the Fed holds at its October meeting and waits until December.

- Sept. 11 — August consumer prices rose 3.4% from a year earlier, with gasoline driving the monthly increase. - Sept. 14 — Trump threatened to cut off trade with some nations unless the Fed lowered rates. The 10-year Treasury yield topped 5% for the first time since October 2023. - Sept. 16 — The Fed raised rates a quarter point to 3.75%-4%, its first hike since July 2023. Trump demanded rates of "1%, or less." - Sept. 22-24 — Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said reaching 2% inflation would be "painful." Governor Michael Barr said more hikes were likely. - Oct. 1 — August PCE inflation came in at 3.4%, below the 3.7% forecast, cutting October hike odds to 35%. - Oct. 4 — Weak U.S. jobs data pulled back market bets on an October Fed hike.

ContextIn September 2023, a majority of Fed officials also judged one more hike likely, but it never came; July 2023 stayed that cycle's last increase, at a 5.25%-5.5% peak, 1.5 points above today's range. September's hike came after a run of rate cuts across 2024 and 2025. August PCE inflation (the Fed's preferred gauge) was 3.4%, against a 2% target.

THE HILL7 sources

3usUpdateRussia-Ukraine war

Kremlin says it is open to a Trump-Putin call on a Siberian plague-lab worker's death, but no call is scheduled

Russia says none of 200 screened contacts had plague and is easing precautions; the WHO is still pressing Moscow for the cause.

- Oct. 2 — Darya Shipilova, 28, a worker at Siberia's Irkutsk Anti-Plague Institute, more than 2,500 miles from Moscow, died; Russia listed pneumonia of undetermined origin. - By Oct. 6 — U.S. officials were monitoring it as a suspected pneumonic plague death and Trump offered help; Russia quarantined a hospital and watched nearly 200 contacts. - By Oct. 7 — Trump said he would call Putin; Russia said tests had not linked the death to plague, and the State Department reissued its Level 4 do-not-travel warning.

ContextDarya Shipilova, a 28-year-old worker at the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Institute in Siberia, more than 2,500 miles from Moscow, died on Friday, Oct. 2. Russia has not said she had plague: its official cause of death is pneumonia of unknown origin. Plague is an infection caused by one bacterium, Yersinia pestis, and its forms are named for the part of the body they attack. Only the lung form, pneumonic plague, spreads between people. Untreated, it can kill within 18 to 24 hours, though early antibiotics cure it, per the WHO. The U.S. averages seven human plague cases a year across all forms, and the CDC sees no sign of a broader U.S. threat.

CBS NEWS10 sources

4usUpdate

DNC sues to block pro-Trump TV ads it says the White House paid for with $20 million in border-agency funds

Spots marked "Paid for by the U.S. Government" kept airing after Trump said on Monday, Oct. 5, that his super PAC would pay for them.

Government-paid ads promoting Trump began running on local TV in late September; on Monday, Oct. 5, Trump said his super PAC would pay for them going forward. The White House then said taxpayers would not be repaid the roughly $11 million spent since late September, against the $20 million the DNC suit says OMB moved for the ads. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said he would file an FEC complaint, though only 2 of the commission's 6 seats are filled.

ContextThe Government Accountability Office, Congress's watchdog, bars three kinds of agency publicity: hidden sponsorship, self-praise and purely partisan material. It ruled against Bush's Education Department in 2005 for secretly paying commentator Armstrong Williams, and against Obama's EPA in 2015 for covertly promoting its water rule; both cases turned on concealment. These ads carry a disclaimer, so the DNC's case rests on the self-praise and partisanship tests.

NBC NEWS12 sources

5us

Kimberly Guilfoyle asked a Trump donor to wire $100,000 to her American Express bill before her ambassador confirmation hearing, messages show

On Wednesday, Oct. 7, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, with Guilfoyle seated in front of him in Athens, called her "a strong ambassador."

Guilfoyle, a former California prosecutor and Fox News host, ran fundraising for Trump's 2020 campaign and was engaged to Donald Trump Jr. The Daily Beast identifies the donor as Eric Deters, a former congressional candidate from Kentucky. The closest recent precedent is the case of former Bob Menendez (Sen-D New Jersey), now serving 11 years in prison for bribery. Part of that scheme: in 2019 a businessman's company paid about $23,000 toward his wife Nadine Menendez's mortgage, compared with the $100,000 Guilfoyle asked this donor to send.

ContextGuilfoyle, a former California prosecutor and Fox News host, ran fundraising for Trump's 2020 campaign and was engaged to Donald Trump Jr. The Daily Beast identifies the donor as Eric Deters, a former congressional candidate from Kentucky. The closest recent precedent is the case of former Bob Menendez (Sen-D New Jersey), now serving 11 years in prison for bribery. Part of that scheme: in 2019 a businessman's company paid about $23,000 toward his wife Nadine Menendez's mortgage, compared with the $100,000 Guilfoyle asked this donor to send.

WSJ7 sources

6us

FBI charges Minnesota 18-year-old with plotting an ISIS-inspired Mall of America shooting after an undercover FBI employee sold him an AK-47

Prosecutors say he picked the mall's Hmong Arts Celebration on Saturday, Oct. 24, and said he meant to kill 30 to 60 people.

The FBI watched Mohamud for about 22 months before the arrest. A confidential informant began messaging him in December 2024, and agents arrested him on Tuesday, Oct. 6, 2026, 18 days before the Saturday, Oct. 24 attack prosecutors say he planned. The AK-47 the undercover employee sold him had been made inoperable, so the gun could not fire, though the 200 rounds were live. The charge rests on the purchase itself: receiving a firearm and ammunition knowing they would be used in a federal crime of terrorism. U.S. Attorney Daniel Rosen called him "a radicalized young man who needed to be watched." Amy Klobuchar (Sen-D Minnesota), the Democratic nominee for governor, called for "major coordinated investments in anti-terrorism and local law enforcement."

ContextThe FBI watched Mohamud for about 22 months before the arrest. A confidential informant began messaging him in December 2024, and agents arrested him on Tuesday, Oct. 6, 2026, 18 days before the Saturday, Oct. 24 attack prosecutors say he planned. The AK-47 the undercover employee sold him had been made inoperable, so the gun could not fire, though the 200 rounds were live. The charge rests on the purchase itself: receiving a firearm and ammunition knowing they would be used in a federal crime of terrorism. U.S. Attorney Daniel Rosen called him "a radicalized young man who needed to be watched." Amy Klobuchar (Sen-D Minnesota), the Democratic nominee for governor, called for "major coordinated investments in anti-terrorism and local law enforcement."

PBS NEWSHOUR11 sources