News news3 stories
Ongoing1 earlier update3 days
This story has run 2 times over 3 days, starting Sep 1.
- Army Secretary Dan Driscoll resigns after 18 months, following clashes with Hegseth
- UpdateTrump names Adam Telle acting Army secretary, effective immediately, after Driscoll resigned — this issue
Telle, the Army's assistant secretary for civil works, is a former Senate Republican aide with no military service; Trump has not said whether he will nominate him permanently.
Trump named Adam Telle, the Army's assistant secretary for civil works, as acting Army secretary effective immediately, filling the vacancy left by Dan Driscoll's resignation this week after clashes with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Telle is a longtime Senate Republican aide with no military service, confirmed to his current post 72-22 in August 2025; Trump has not said whether he will nominate him permanently. Trump called Telle "a Great Patriot, who is respected by all." Hegseth added: "Huge congrats to Adam. Strong and whip smart. He is indeed a great Patriot — and will be an immediate asset to the @USArmy."
Catch up
- Apr. 2, 2026 — Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth forced out Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George; Gen. Christopher LaNeve has run the job in an acting capacity ever since.
- Sept. 1 — Army Secretary Dan Driscoll resigned after about 18 months, the fourth senior service leader out in recent months, following repeated clashes with Hegseth.
- Sept. 3 — Sen. Thom Tillis (Sen-R North Carolina) asked Trump to replace Hegseth, citing "inept management," leaving the Army with no Senate-confirmed secretary and no Senate-confirmed chief of staff.
BackgroundWhat Telle's civil works job did not put him in charge of
- Civil works covers waterways, ports, flood control and the Army Corps of Engineers' non-military work — a budget and infrastructure lane.
- The job carries no authority over personnel policy, force structure or unit readiness, the areas where Driscoll and Hegseth clashed.
- A permanent nomination would need only a simple majority; with 53 Republican senators, a repeat of the 22 no votes would not stop him.
Ongoing3 earlier updates16 days
This story has run 4 times over 16 days, starting Aug 19.
- Texas Governor Abbott refuses to hand over ICE officer charged in Minneapolis shooting, Minnesota sues
- Judge rejects Minnesota’s bid to force Texas to extradite ICE agent Christian Castro
- Texas releases ICE officer after Minnesota’s extradition request goes unsigned for 90 days
- ICE officer Christian Castro indicted on 6 counts of lying to the FBI about shooting a Venezuelan man through a closed door — this issue
ProPublica reports Justice Department leaders in Washington overruled the lead prosecutor, who wanted a civil rights charge; that prosecutor was fired the same day.
A federal grand jury indicted Immigration and Customs Enforcement officer Christian Castro on six counts of making false statements over the Jan. 14, 2026 shooting of Julio Cesar Sosa-Celis, a Venezuelan immigrant, in Minneapolis. Castro told investigators he was hit twice in the head with a shovel and attacked with a broom handle before he fired. Prosecutors say surveillance video shows Sosa-Celis dropping the shovel and running into the house before Castro reached the door, a city gunshot sensor recorded the shot as Castro's arms were raised toward a closed door, and Castro's medical records show no head injury — only an abrasion near his thumb. The bullet went through the door, struck Sosa-Celis in the leg and lodged in the wall of a child's bedroom. ProPublica reported that Justice Department leadership in Washington overrode the lead federal prosecutor in Minnesota, Assistant U.S. Attorney Matthew Evans, who wanted a civil rights charge under Section 242. Evans wrote to victims' lawyers: "This is being directed by the Main Justice and the US Attorney. I objected in the strongest possible terms and fought it as hard as I could. It wasn't enough." NBC News reports Evans was fired as the indictment became public on Wednesday, Sept. 3, and that two sources say he is under investigation for alleged obstruction of a grand jury probe. Castro is not in custody. He walked out of a Texas jail last week after roughly three months, once Gov. Greg Abbott declined to sign Minnesota's extradition warrant and the state's 90-day hold expired.
What the video undid after the shooting
- Federal prosecutors dropped their own assault charges against Sosa-Celis and Alfredo Aljorna, citing evidence "materially inconsistent" with agents' hearing testimony.
- Then-Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem had called the encounter "an attempted murder of federal law enforcement."
- Sosa-Celis plans to seek civil damages from the federal government, per the ACLU of Minnesota.
Related reading
Abbott argues Castro is not a "fugitive" because ICE reassigned him to Texas rather than him fleeing. The Supreme Court rejected that theory in Appleyard v. Massachusetts (1906) and again, unanimously, in Puerto Rico v. Branstad (1987). Texas law required Castro's release after 90 days without a signed warrant, and no deadline forces a governor to decide.
Attorney Robin Wolpert says her client spent months publicly accused of attacking agents before video showed he was the one shot at, through the closed door of an occupied house.
A retired 17-year ICE veteran who ran the vetting unit says recruits received final job offers before fingerprint, identity and credit checks were finished. He filed with the DHS inspector general in August 2025; more than a year later, no findings have been published.
Ongoing13 earlier updates43 days
This story has run 14 times over 43 days, starting Jul 23.
- Trump Threatens to Bomb Iranian Bridges and Power Plants for Every Ship Hit in Strait of Hormuz
- Iran fires multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. base in Jordan; all are intercepted
- Iran denies Trump’s claim that new U.S. talks would start Monday
- Cargo ship is struck in the Strait of Hormuz
- Vance says the Iran talks are moving, then calls the war only half over
- Iran won't reopen Hormuz until the US unfreezes its assets and lifts the blockade
- Trump threatens to bomb Oman, the U.S. ally brokering the deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
- Trump declares an "economic D-Day" on Iran as Hormuz traffic runs 85% below normal
- UpdateU.S. goes nearly a month without large Iran strikes as Trump shifts back to sanctions; Hormuz remains closed
- U.S. destroys two Iranian rocket launchers loaded to mine the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at bases in Jordan, all intercepted
- UpdateU.S. bombs two Iranian rocket sites near the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at Jordan
- UpdateU.S. forces struck IRGC air-defense, radar, maritime and mine-laying sites on Iran's southern coast starting at noon on Sept. 1
- UpdateU.S. hits about 100 Iranian targets; Iran fires back at American bases in four countries, and a cruise missile kills 4 at a wedding
- UpdateReuters weapons experts say a US munition made a direct hit on the Iranian wedding house that killed 5 — this issue
Vice President JD Vance says the US is investigating but is "extremely skeptical" of the toll, which came from the Iranian Red Crescent, not the government.
Four weapons experts who reviewed verified photos and video of the site at Kuhestak, in Sirik county near the Strait of Hormuz, told Reuters the damage points to a munition that detonated on or just above the roof of the house — a direct hit, not stray fragments. Trevor Ball, a former US Army ordnance disposal technician, identified debris consistent with a Joint Standoff Weapon, a US air-dropped glide bomb. Gareth Collett, a retired British Army brigadier who specialized in explosives engineering, said the evidence "leans towards a US 500 lb air-dropped munition" rather than an Iranian air-defense missile. The house sits about 112 meters from a telecommunications tower the US also hit that night, Tuesday, Sept. 1. The experts said the blast pattern is inconsistent with fragments carrying that far. The Iranian Red Crescent Society says five people were killed — four at the scene, and a 22-year-old woman who later died in hospital — and 67 were wounded. Asked about it Thursday (Sept. 3), Vance said: "I will say that the Iranian state media has not been a very good scribe about what's happened in the conflict thus far, so I'm extremely skeptical of this... ([TS]The casualty figures came from the Iranian Red Crescent Society, a member of the International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement, not state media.) sometimes things happen." He added that he did not think the US had "any information one way or the other." CENTCOM spokesman Capt. Tim Hawkins said the command is aware of the reports and that the US military "never targets civilians, unlike the IRGC," but would not say whether a formal investigation has been opened.
Catch up
- Feb. 28 — A US strike near Minab hit a school compound after outdated coordinates tied it to an IRGC naval base, killing at least 156 people, most of them children.
- Mar. — Nearly every Senate Democrat demanded a Pentagon investigation of Minab; the inquiry reportedly concluded in April and has never been published.
- Sept. 1 — A US strike package hit IRGC air defense, radar, maritime and communications sites; a house hosting a wedding in Kuhestak was destroyed, and the Red Crescent reported four dead and dozens hurt.
- Sept. 2 — A wounded 22-year-old woman died in hospital, raising the toll to five, and early visual analysis began pointing to a US missile.
12 earlier issues
- Trump Threatens to Bomb Iranian Bridges and Power Plants for Every Ship Hit in Strait of Hormuz
- Iran fires multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. base in Jordan; all are intercepted
- Iran denies Trump’s claim that new U.S. talks would start Monday
- Cargo ship is struck in the Strait of Hormuz
- Vance says the Iran talks are moving, then calls the war only half over
- Iran won't reopen Hormuz until the US unfreezes its assets and lifts the blockade
- Trump threatens to bomb Oman, the U.S. ally brokering the deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
- Trump declares an "economic D-Day" on Iran as Hormuz traffic runs 85% below normal
- UpdateU.S. goes nearly a month without large Iran strikes as Trump shifts back to sanctions; Hormuz remains closed
- U.S. destroys two Iranian rocket launchers loaded to mine the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at bases in Jordan, all intercepted
- UpdateU.S. bombs two Iranian rocket sites near the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at Jordan
- UpdateU.S. forces struck IRGC air-defense, radar, maritime and mine-laying sites on Iran's southern coast starting at noon on Sept. 1
What this strike has and has not set in motion
- Iran's Red Crescent filed a letter with the International Criminal Court on Thursday (Sept. 3) urging a war-crimes investigation — the first such claim it has filed against the US military.
- Iran's health ministry counted 18 killed and 108 wounded across all US strikes that same Tuesday (Sept. 1), meaning the wedding house accounted for more than a quarter of the day's dead.
- No senator or House member has sent a letter, sought a hearing, or filed a resolution over the Kuhestak strike.
Quick bites9
Panetta says Hegseth is "undermining the strength" of the military after 6 Army officers are pulled from the two-star promotion list
THE HILLFormer Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said Pete Hegseth is damaging the armed forces through constant churn at the top, and that repairing it will take "several years, or a decade". The six officers were cut from a slate of 18 a peer review board had already approved; two are Black and two are women, and the Pentagon has given no reason. The criticism followed Army Secretary Dan Driscoll's resignation on Sept. 1.
- At least 20 uniformed and civilian defense leaders have been fired, forced out or have resigned since Hegseth took office in January 2025, per a CBS News tally.
- A May 2025 Hegseth memo ordered 20% cuts to four-star and general-officer ranks and 10% cuts more broadly.
- Days earlier, Hegseth blocked four other officers from one-star promotions; some had worked for two commanders he had already pushed out.
Ongoing1
This story has run 2 times over 4 days, starting Aug 31.
- Military leaders told Hegseth prolonged Iran operations would leave the U.S. exposed elsewhere
- Panetta says Hegseth is "undermining the strength" of the military after 6 Army officers are pulled from the two-star promotion list — this issue
Judge Boardman blocks Trump's Aug. 6 birthright citizenship order as "almost certainly unconstitutional"
THE GUARDIANUpdateA judge blocked Trump's order denying citizenship to U.S.-born children in "alien enemies" and "birth tourism" cases. US District Judge Deborah Boardman's 35-page preliminary injunction cites June's Supreme Court ruling in Barbara v. Trump, which held that children in the certified class are "citizens at birth." The White House called her an "activist" Biden appointee.
Catch up
Feb. 19, 2025 — Trump's first try at narrowing birthright citizenship drew a nationwide class action. It covered the U.S.-born children the order would exclude. In June, the Supreme Court held in Barbara v. Trump that those children are citizens at birth. Aug. 6 — The White House issued a second, narrower order. It stripped citizenship from U.S.-born children in "alien enemies" and "birth tourism" cases, sending the fight back to Judge Boardman's court.
- Order signed Aug. 6, 2026; ruling issued Sept. 3, 2026.
- Ruling runs 35 pages and rests on the Supreme Court's June decision in Barbara v. Trump.
Ongoing1
This story has run 2 times, starting Sep 3.
- Federal judge blocks Trump's Aug. 6 order narrowing birthright citizenship, calling it "almost certainly unconstitutional"
- UpdateJudge Boardman blocks Trump's Aug. 6 birthright citizenship order as "almost certainly unconstitutional" — this issue
IMF weighs a permanent Caracas office and Energy Secretary Chris Wright flew to Venezuela to sell the oil deal
REASONUpdateThe IMF is weighing a permanent Caracas office, and Energy Secretary Chris Wright flew to Venezuela to promote the 17-field oil concession, which holds about a fifth of the country's reserves. Trump says elections there are not close, and businessman Alejandro Betancourt's ties to the deal draw criticism.
On Sep. 2 the Pentagon's Office of Strategic Capital took a 35% passive stake in North American Blue Energy Partners, the company holding 100-year rights to 17 Venezuelan oil fields.
- US passive equity stake in North American Blue Energy Partners: 35%
- Concession covers 17 fields, about one-fifth of Venezuela's total oil reserves
Leon Black skipped his Epstein deposition and sued House Oversight to void the subpoenas
NBC NEWSBlack's name shows up more than 300 times in the Epstein files released by the DOJ. He says the committee cannot make him testify. He also says it cannot demand his nondisclosure agreements. Chairman James Comer (Rep-R Kentucky) talked to lawyers. He is now weighing a contempt referral.
- Black says he paid Epstein for wealth management advisory work.
- Comer said no other billionaire or political figure called in for an interview or deposition has sued the committee.
- Committee says survivors told it directly that Black was involved in the abuse of women.
Excavation for Trump's 250-foot arch near Arlington starts within two weeks, with a lawsuit pending
NBC NEWSThe 'Great Triumphal Arch' would rise at Memorial Circle, between the Lincoln Memorial and Arlington National Cemetery. Building it would take two to three years. The money comes from funds earmarked for the National Endowment for the Humanities, and the suit says Congress never approved it.
- Height: 250 feet
- Construction timeline: two to three years, per CBS News
- Funding: earmarked from the NEH, per Politico
Treasury proposes stripping tax exemption from 18,000 schools that use race in admissions or aid
REUTERSTreasury and the IRS proposed a rule Thursday, Sept. 3. It could strip tax breaks from about 18,000 private schools and colleges. The rule targets race-based preferences in admissions, scholarships or other policies. It is not final. The count covers schools the rule could reach, not schools found to discriminate. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said such practices are discriminatory. Calling them "equitable, inclusive, or diversity-enhancing" does not change that, he said.
- About 18,000 institutions covered, by Treasury's estimate
- Would take effect after May 2027 only if the rule is finalized
US deported 101 people to Haiti Thursday, Sept. 3, its third weekly flight after years of monthly ones
APThe flights land at Cap-Haitien because Port-au-Prince's airport is too dangerous, with gangs holding about 70% of the capital.
- 101 people removed on Thursday's flight, Sept. 3 — the third consecutive Thursday flight
- Gangs control roughly 70% of Port-au-Prince
- More than 3,050 people killed in Haiti from January to June, per the UN
German police arrest 2 over attack on a Munich weapons maker, days after blaming Russia for a Leipzig drone plot
PBS NEWSHOURGerman police have arrested two people over an attack on a weapons maker in Munich. German officials say the country faces repeated Russian "hybrid warfare" — not war, but a steady run of sabotage.
The rest of it
- German officials have blamed Russia for a drone plot near Leipzig Airport
- Russia has closed German cultural centers
Zelensky says Witkoff and Kushner will visit Kyiv in coming days, their first trip to Ukraine
KYIV INDEPENDENTZelensky said the two US envoys are also expected to return to Moscow to restart stalled peace talks. Ukraine is ready to meet them "at the appropriate level and for substantive discussions," he said.
Elections22 races
The midterms · 60 days out · November 3, 2026
D or R take the House / Senate?
today · 7-day panel
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 90%, Kalshi 85%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 52%, Kalshi 48%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.
No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only
How to read thisthe contract, the key, and the week panel
Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.
- two venues, priced separately
- shaded = how far apart they are
- 50% — control flips here
- where it stood 7 days ago
- the last 7 days, on its own scale
- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
Both lines in a week panel are the same contract, priced by two venues — not one line per party. Its colour is whose chance the bar is measuring, which is why a panel can be blue while the verdict beside it reads Republicans favoured.
Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.
The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 5.0pp gap / 4.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.
Who is defending the House and the Senate is sourced, not remembered — House, 2026-07-23 issue: the NDAA passed “216-212, with six Democrats joining a unified Republican majority.”; Senate, 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.”
Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
| Day | U.S. House · Polymarket | U.S. House · Kalshi | U.S. Senate · Polymarket | U.S. Senate · Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days ago | 89% | 84% | 51% | 48% |
| 6 days ago | 90% | 84% | 51% | 48% |
| 5 days ago | 89% | 84% | 51% | 48% |
| 4 days ago | 89% | 85% | 51% | 48% |
| 3 days ago | 89% | 85% | 52% | 49% |
| 2 days ago | 90% | 85% | 52% | 48% |
| yesterday | 90% | 85% | 52% | 48% |
| today | 90% | 85% | 52% | 48% |
The 3 closest of 22 races. Open one, or all of them — every race is on the page either way.
rTexas SenateTalarico50.5%Paxton51.5%books split
POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election
Ken Paxton (R) faces James Talarico (D).
The only race here where the two venues do not agree on who is ahead.
The books name different leaders
Texas Senate
Each line is one book’s lead — the gap between the two candidates, signed. Zero is a tie, and the two venues are on opposite sides of it.
Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0ppTexas Senate. Lead in percentage points, positive to Ken Paxton. Kalshi: Paxton ahead by 3 points. Polymarket: Talarico ahead by 1 point. Every day is in the table below.
today
- Paxton+3%Kalshi
- Talarico+1%Polymarket
- Paxton49.5%Polymarket
- Paxton51.5%Kalshi
- Talarico50.5%Polymarket
- Talarico48.5%Kalshi
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. The lead is the gap between the two, in points. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
The lead is one candidate’s price minus the other’s, at the same venue on the same day — never one book’s Tuesday against the other’s Thursday. It is drawn only where a venue priced both candidates, so a line starts late rather than being stretched across days it was never quoted over.
A day inside a tenth of a point is printed as levelrather than being rounded onto somebody’s side: on a chart whose whole subject is who is in front, a dead heat shown as a win is the one error that cannot be recovered from the drawing.
The markets: Ken Paxton Polymarket, Kalshi · James Talarico Polymarket, Kalshi
Every price behind the chart, and the lead it produces. Texas Senate, snapshot Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT. Day Paxton · Polymarket Talarico · Polymarket Lead · Polymarket Paxton · Kalshi Talarico · Kalshi Lead · Kalshi 7 days ago 49.5% 49.5% level 51.0% 49.0% Paxton +2% 6 days ago 50.5% 49.5% Paxton +1% 51.0% 50.0% Paxton +1% 5 days ago 48.5% 50.0% Talarico +1.5% 50.0% 50.0% level 4 days ago 48.5% 50.5% Talarico +2% 51.0% 51.0% level 3 days ago 48.5% 50.5% Talarico +2% 51.0% 50.0% Paxton +1% 2 days ago 49.5% 50.5% Talarico +1% 51.0% 50.0% Paxton +1% yesterday 49.5% 50.5% Talarico +1% 53.0% 48.0% Paxton +5% today 49.5% 50.5% Talarico +1% 51.5% 48.5% Paxton +3% uOhio Senate
POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election
Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).
A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Ohio Senate
Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 55.5%, Kalshi 53.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 44.5%, Kalshi 47.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Sherrod Brown 54% · Jon Husted 47%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Sherrod Brown (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$119K54.5%Kalshi1.1M contracts · 53%/54%54.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+1.0ppJon Husted (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$87.4K45.5%Kalshi1.5M contracts · 46%/48%47.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio Senate, snapshot Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT. Day Sherrod Brown · Polymarket Sherrod Brown · Kalshi Jon Husted · Polymarket Jon Husted · Kalshi 7 days ago 54.5% 54.0% 45.5% 47% 6 days ago 54.5% 55.0% 45.5% 47% 5 days ago 54.5% 56.0% 45.5% 46% 4 days ago 54.5% 55.0% 45.5% 46% 3 days ago 54.5% 55.0% 45.5% 46% 2 days ago 55.5% 54.0% 44.5% 47% yesterday 55.5% 54.0% 44.5% 48% today 55.5% 53.5% 44.5% 47% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
pOhio governor
POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election
Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).
Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Ohio governor
Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 55.5%, Kalshi 57.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 44.5%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Amy Acton 57% · Vivek Ramaswamy 44%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Amy Acton (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$81.9K53.5%Kalshi700K contracts · 57%/58%56.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+2.0ppVivek Ramaswamy (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$98.4K45.5%Kalshi770K contracts · 43%/44%45.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio governor, snapshot Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT. Day Amy Acton · Polymarket Amy Acton · Kalshi Vivek Ramaswamy · Polymarket Vivek Ramaswamy · Kalshi 7 days ago 53.5% 56.0% 45.5% 45.0% 6 days ago 53.5% 56.0% 46.5% 44.0% 5 days ago 53.5% 57.0% 46.5% 44.0% 4 days ago 53.5% 57.0% 46.5% 44.0% 3 days ago 53.5% 57.0% 45.5% 43.0% 2 days ago 54.5% 58.0% 45.5% 42.0% yesterday 55.5% 57.0% 44.5% 44.0% today 55.5% 57.5% 44.5% 43.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
The other 19 races
Senate8 of 10
sAlaska Senate
POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election
Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).
A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Alaska Senate
Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 63.5%, Kalshi 66.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 36.5%, Kalshi 34.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Mary Peltola 64% · Dan Sullivan 36%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Mary Peltola (D)7 days agoPolymarket$244K65%Kalshi77.6K contracts · 66%/67%65%venue gap0.0pp7-day move-1.5ppDan Sullivan (R)7 days agoPolymarket$137K35.5%Kalshi73.0K contracts · 33%/35%39.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska Senate, snapshot Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT. Day Mary Peltola · Polymarket Mary Peltola · Kalshi Dan Sullivan · Polymarket Dan Sullivan · Kalshi 7 days ago 65.0% 65.0% 35.5% 39% 6 days ago 64.5% 64.0% 34.5% 39% 5 days ago 65.0% 63.0% 34.5% 36% 4 days ago 63.5% 62.0% 36.5% 36% 3 days ago 63.5% 65.0% 36.5% 34% 2 days ago 63.5% 67.0% 36.5% 33% yesterday 63.5% 65.0% 36.5% 32% today 63.5% 66.5% 36.5% 34% zGeorgia Senate
POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election
Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia Senate
Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.2pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 93.50%, Kalshi 93.45%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 6.4%, Kalshi 6.6%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.2pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jon Ossoff 93% · Mike Collins 6.6%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jon Ossoff (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$49.2K93.5%Kalshi355K contracts · 93%/94%92.1%venue gap1.4pp7-day move0.0ppMike Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$74.5K6.35%Kalshi840K contracts · 6.5%/6.7%8.00%venue gap1.7pp7-day move+0.1ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia Senate, snapshot Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT. Day Jon Ossoff · Polymarket Jon Ossoff · Kalshi Mike Collins · Polymarket Mike Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 93.5% 92.10% 6.35% 8.0% 6 days ago 93.5% 92.70% 6.35% 7.9% 5 days ago 93.5% 92.60% 6.40% 8.1% 4 days ago 93.5% 92.80% 6.40% 7.7% 3 days ago 93.5% 93.00% 6.45% 7.5% 2 days ago 93.5% 93.40% 6.40% 7.4% yesterday 93.5% 93.60% 6.40% 7.4% today 93.5% 93.45% 6.40% 6.6% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
tIowa Senate
POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election
Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).
An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Iowa Senate
Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 64%, Kalshi 63%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 36.5%, Kalshi 37.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Ashley Hinson 63% · Josh Turek 37%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Ashley Hinson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$119K60.5%Kalshi1.0M contracts · 62%/64%59.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+3.5ppJosh Turek (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$109K40.5%Kalshi1.1M contracts · 37%/38%42.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-4.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa Senate, snapshot Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT. Day Ashley Hinson · Polymarket Ashley Hinson · Kalshi Josh Turek · Polymarket Josh Turek · Kalshi 7 days ago 60.5% 59% 40.5% 42.0% 6 days ago 61.0% 59% 39.5% 42.0% 5 days ago 60.5% 59% 39.5% 42.0% 4 days ago 64.0% 59% 37.0% 41.0% 3 days ago 64.0% 62% 37.0% 39.0% 2 days ago 64.0% 62% 36.5% 40.0% yesterday 64.0% 63% 36.5% 38.0% today 64.0% 63% 36.5% 37.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
qMaine Senate
POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election
Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).
Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Maine Senate
Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 69.5%, Kalshi 68.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 31.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Troy Jackson 69% · Susan Collins 31%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Troy Jackson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$737K69.5%Kalshi2.0M contracts · 68%/69%67.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move0.0ppSusan Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$498K31.5%Kalshi2.7M contracts · 31%/32%35.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Maine Senate, snapshot Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT. Day Troy Jackson · Polymarket Troy Jackson · Kalshi Susan Collins · Polymarket Susan Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 69.5% 67.0% 31.5% 35.0% 6 days ago 69.5% 69.0% 30.5% 32.0% 5 days ago 69.5% 70.0% 30.5% 31.0% 4 days ago 69.5% 70.0% 30.5% 31.0% 3 days ago 69.5% 70.0% 30.5% 31.0% 2 days ago 69.5% 70.0% 30.5% 30.0% yesterday 69.5% 68.0% 30.5% 32.0% today 69.5% 68.5% 30.5% 31.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
oMichigan SenateEl-Sayed refuses to disavow Hasan Piker, offers his 3 million followers a "pathway" into his Senate campaign
WASHINGTON EXAMINER: El-Sayed won't disavow Hasan Piker, and invites the streamer's followers into his Senate campaign
Abdul El-Sayed (D-MI) said he wants to offer Piker's audience "a pathway into an electoral movement." It would be a path that "disavows the things that I disagree with," he said. He spoke weeks after about 400 Jewish Michigan Democrats signed a letter backing his Republican opponent, Mike Rogers (R-MI). Major donors were among them.
- 400 Jewish Michigan Democrats signed the letter backing Rogers.
- Piker on the fight: "I have become this media cycle's 'trans athletes' or 'migrant caravan.'"
Michigan's Democratic Senate nominee resisted pressure from Senate Democrats to cut ties with the streamer.
Two markets, one question
Michigan Senate
Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 64.5%, Kalshi 63.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 35.5%, Kalshi 37.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 64% · Mike Rogers 37%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Abdul El-Sayed (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$353K64.5%Kalshi1.2M contracts · 63%/64%61.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move0.0ppMike Rogers (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$295K35.5%Kalshi1.8M contracts · 36%/38%40.0%venue gap4.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan Senate, snapshot Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT. Day Abdul El-Sayed · Polymarket Abdul El-Sayed · Kalshi Mike Rogers · Polymarket Mike Rogers · Kalshi 7 days ago 64.5% 61.0% 35.5% 40% 6 days ago 64.5% 63.0% 35.5% 39% 5 days ago 64.5% 63.0% 35.5% 37% 4 days ago 64.5% 64.0% 35.5% 37% 3 days ago 64.5% 64.0% 35.5% 37% 2 days ago 64.5% 63.0% 35.5% 37% yesterday 64.5% 64.0% 35.5% 37% today 64.5% 63.5% 35.5% 37% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
aaNebraska Senate
POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election
Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Nebraska Senate
Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 69.0%, Kalshi 69.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 31.0%, Kalshi 30.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Pete Ricketts 69% · Dan Osborn 31%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Pete Ricketts (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$102K70.5%Kalshi289K contracts · 69%/70%70.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.5ppDan Osborn (I)7 days agoPolymarket$29.2K29.5%Kalshi384K contracts · 30%/31%31.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+1.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nebraska Senate, snapshot Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT. Day Pete Ricketts · Polymarket Pete Ricketts · Kalshi Dan Osborn · Polymarket Dan Osborn · Kalshi 7 days ago 70.5% 70.0% 29.5% 31.0% 6 days ago 70.5% 70.0% 29.5% 29.0% 5 days ago 70.0% 70.0% 29.5% 30.0% 4 days ago 70.5% 70.0% 29.5% 31.0% 3 days ago 68.5% 69.0% 29.5% 30.0% 2 days ago 69.0% 70.0% 31.0% 31.0% yesterday 69.0% 70.0% 31.0% 31.0% today 69.0% 69.5% 31.0% 30.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
abNew Hampshire Senate
POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election
Chris Pappas (D) leads the unresolved Democratic primary; John E. Sununu (R) leads the unresolved Republican primary.
Neither nomination is official yet, though the market already treats both as decided — the Democratic side lost about three points in a week.
Two markets, one question
New Hampshire Senate
Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 82.5%, Kalshi 82.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 17.5%, Kalshi 17.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Chris Pappas 83% · John E. Sununu 17%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Chris Pappas (D)*7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$64.9K85.5%Kalshi97.4K contracts · 82%/83%85.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-3.0ppJohn E. Sununu (R)*7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$28.4K14.5%Kalshi189K contracts · 17%/18%17.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+3.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. New Hampshire Senate, snapshot Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT. Day Chris Pappas · Polymarket Chris Pappas · Kalshi John E. Sununu · Polymarket John E. Sununu · Kalshi 7 days ago 85.5% 85.0% 14.5% 17.0% 6 days ago 84.5% 84.0% 14.5% 17.0% 5 days ago 84.5% 84.0% 16.0% 18.0% 4 days ago 83.5% 84.0% 16.5% 17.0% 3 days ago 83.5% 83.0% 16.5% 17.0% 2 days ago 82.5% 84.0% 17.5% 18.0% yesterday 82.5% 84.0% 17.5% 16.0% today 82.5% 82.5% 17.5% 17.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
yNorth Carolina Senate
POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election
Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
North Carolina Senate
Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.4pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 91.5%, Kalshi 91.1%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 8.5%, Kalshi 8.8%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.4pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Roy Cooper 91% · Michael Whatley 8.8%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Roy Cooper (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$43.1K91.5%Kalshi1.3M contracts · 91%/91%91.5%venue gap0.0pp7-day move0.0ppMichael Whatley (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$59.8K9.0%Kalshi626K contracts · 8.6%/9.0%7.8%venue gap1.2pp7-day move-0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. North Carolina Senate, snapshot Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT. Day Roy Cooper · Polymarket Roy Cooper · Kalshi Michael Whatley · Polymarket Michael Whatley · Kalshi 7 days ago 91.5% 91.5% 9.0% 7.8% 6 days ago 91.5% 92.3% 9.0% 8.8% 5 days ago 92.0% 91.1% 8.0% 9.8% 4 days ago 91.5% 92.5% 8.0% 9.1% 3 days ago 91.5% 91.2% 8.5% 9.2% 2 days ago 91.5% 91.2% 8.5% 9.1% yesterday 91.5% 91.1% 8.5% 9.2% today 91.5% 91.1% 8.5% 8.8% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
Governors11 of 12
adAlaska governor
POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election
Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).
Wilson holds a commanding lead, but no race here has moved more this week: Begich is down about seven points.
Two markets, one question
Alaska governor
Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 33.5%, Kalshi 32.5%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 1.25%, Kalshi 0.25%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Bernadette Wilson 33% · Tom Begich 0.7%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Bernadette Wilson (R)7 days agoPolymarket$171K35.5%Kalshi51.3K contracts · 32%/33%35.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-2.0ppTom Begich (D)7 days agoPolymarket$158K1.35%Kalshi229K contracts · 0.2%/0.3%14.00%venue gap13pp7-day move-0.1ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska governor, snapshot Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT. Day Bernadette Wilson · Polymarket Bernadette Wilson · Kalshi Tom Begich · Polymarket Tom Begich · Kalshi 7 days ago 35.5% 35.0% 1.35% 14.00% 6 days ago 35.5% 36.0% 1.40% 1.00% 5 days ago 35.5% 37.0% 1.30% 0.10% 4 days ago 35.5% 36.0% 1.25% 1.00% 3 days ago 35.5% 30.0% 1.25% 0.10% 2 days ago 33.5% 33.0% 1.25% 0.30% yesterday 33.5% 31.0% 1.25% 0.30% today 33.5% 32.5% 1.25% 0.25% afArizona governor
POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election
Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Arizona governor
Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 87.5%, Kalshi 86.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 12.5%, Kalshi 13.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Katie Hobbs 87% · Andy Biggs 13%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Katie Hobbs (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$31.2K87.5%Kalshi306K contracts · 86%/87%88.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppAndy Biggs (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$36.2K12.5%Kalshi237K contracts · 13%/14%14.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Arizona governor, snapshot Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT. Day Katie Hobbs · Polymarket Katie Hobbs · Kalshi Andy Biggs · Polymarket Andy Biggs · Kalshi 7 days ago 87.5% 88.0% 12.5% 14.0% 6 days ago 87.5% 89.0% 12.5% 14.0% 5 days ago 87.5% 88.0% 12.5% 14.0% 4 days ago 87.5% 88.0% 12.5% 15.0% 3 days ago 87.5% 88.0% 12.5% 15.0% 2 days ago 87.5% 88.0% 12.5% 14.0% yesterday 87.5% 87.0% 12.5% 15.0% today 87.5% 86.5% 12.5% 13.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
ajFlorida governor
POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election
Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).
Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Florida governor
Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 81.5%, Kalshi 80.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 19.0%, Kalshi 19.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Byron Donalds 81% · David Jolly 19%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Byron Donalds (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$27.0K80.5%Kalshi485K contracts · 80%/81%83.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+1.0ppDavid Jolly (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$31.1K18.5%Kalshi290K contracts · 19%/20%19.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Florida governor, snapshot Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT. Day Byron Donalds · Polymarket Byron Donalds · Kalshi David Jolly · Polymarket David Jolly · Kalshi 7 days ago 80.5% 83.0% 18.5% 19.0% 6 days ago 81.0% 83.0% 19.5% 18.0% 5 days ago 81.0% 84.0% 19.5% 17.0% 4 days ago 81.5% 81.0% 19.5% 19.0% 3 days ago 81.5% 81.0% 19.0% 20.0% 2 days ago 81.5% 81.0% 19.0% 17.0% yesterday 81.5% 81.0% 19.0% 19.0% today 81.5% 80.5% 19.0% 19.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
wGeorgia governor
POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).
Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia governor
Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 58.5%, Kalshi 57.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 40.5%, Kalshi 42.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Keisha Lance Bottoms 58% · Rick Jackson 42%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$33.0K59%Kalshi290K contracts · 57%/58%59%venue gap0.0pp7-day move-0.5ppRick Jackson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$37.7K39.5%Kalshi377K contracts · 42%/43%41.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia governor, snapshot Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT. Day Keisha Lance Bottoms · Polymarket Keisha Lance Bottoms · Kalshi Rick Jackson · Polymarket Rick Jackson · Kalshi 7 days ago 59.0% 59.0% 39.5% 41.0% 6 days ago 59.0% 60.0% 39.0% 42.0% 5 days ago 59.0% 59.0% 39.0% 41.0% 4 days ago 60.5% 60.0% 38.0% 41.0% 3 days ago 59.0% 60.0% 40.0% 41.0% 2 days ago 58.5% 59.0% 40.5% 41.0% yesterday 58.5% 59.0% 40.5% 43.0% today 58.5% 57.5% 40.5% 42.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
acIowa governor
POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election
Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Iowa governor
Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 76.5%, Kalshi 77.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 24.5%, Kalshi 23.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Rob Sand 77% · Zach Lahn 24%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Rob Sand (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$31.2K74.5%Kalshi317K contracts · 77%/78%75.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+2.0ppZach Lahn (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$43.8K25.5%Kalshi297K contracts · 23%/24%27.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa governor, snapshot Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT. Day Rob Sand · Polymarket Rob Sand · Kalshi Zach Lahn · Polymarket Zach Lahn · Kalshi 7 days ago 74.5% 75.0% 25.5% 27.0% 6 days ago 74.5% 75.0% 25.5% 27.0% 5 days ago 75.5% 74.0% 24.5% 26.0% 4 days ago 75.5% 77.0% 24.5% 26.0% 3 days ago 76.5% 75.0% 24.5% 27.0% 2 days ago 76.5% 76.0% 24.5% 27.0% yesterday 76.5% 76.0% 24.5% 25.0% today 76.5% 77.5% 24.5% 23.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
aeMichigan governor
POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election
Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan governor
Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 90%, Kalshi 88%; John James (R): Polymarket 10.5%, Kalshi 12.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jocelyn Benson 89% · John James 11%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jocelyn Benson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$48.4K91%Kalshi73.2K contracts · 87%/89%88%venue gap3.0pp7-day move-1.0ppJohn James (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$154K8.5%Kalshi127K contracts · 11%/13%12.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move+2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan governor, snapshot Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT. Day Jocelyn Benson · Polymarket Jocelyn Benson · Kalshi John James · Polymarket John James · Kalshi 7 days ago 91.0% 88.0% 8.5% 12% 6 days ago 90.5% 92.9% 8.0% 15% 5 days ago 92.0% 89.0% 8.0% 10% 4 days ago 92.0% 87.0% 8.0% 15% 3 days ago 91.0% 87.0% 8.5% 14% 2 days ago 90.5% 90.2% 10.0% 12% yesterday 90.0% 87.0% 10.5% 14% today 90.0% 88.0% 10.5% 12% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
xNevada governor
POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election
Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).
Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Republican side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Nevada governor
Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 57.5%, Kalshi 60.5%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 40.5%, Kalshi 41.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Joe Lombardo 60% · Aaron Ford 41%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Joe Lombardo (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$65.8K59.5%Kalshi238K contracts · 60%/61%61.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-2.0ppAaron Ford (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$23.6K41%Kalshi482K contracts · 41%/42%—venue gap—7-day move-0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nevada governor, snapshot Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT. Day Joe Lombardo · Polymarket Joe Lombardo · Kalshi Aaron Ford · Polymarket Aaron Ford · Kalshi 7 days ago 59.5% 61.0% 41.0% — 6 days ago 59.5% 60.0% 41.0% 41.0% 5 days ago 60.5% 60.0% 40.0% 40.0% 4 days ago 57.0% 60.0% 40.5% 42.0% 3 days ago 57.5% 55.0% 40.5% 42.0% 2 days ago 57.5% 58.0% 40.5% 41.0% yesterday 57.5% 61.0% 40.5% 40.0% today 57.5% 60.5% 40.5% 41.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
ahNew York governor
POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election
Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
New York governor
Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.2pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 94.50%, Kalshi 93.85%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 5.0%, Kalshi 6.2%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.2pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Kathy Hochul 94% · Bruce Blakeman 6.1%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Kathy Hochul (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$49.5K94.5%Kalshi279K contracts · 94%/94%94.1%venue gap0.4pp7-day move0.0ppBruce Blakeman (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$55.5K5.0%Kalshi743K contracts · 6.0%/6.4%6.1%venue gap1.1pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. New York governor, snapshot Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT. Day Kathy Hochul · Polymarket Kathy Hochul · Kalshi Bruce Blakeman · Polymarket Bruce Blakeman · Kalshi 7 days ago 94.5% 94.10% 5.0% 6.1% 6 days ago 94.5% 94.30% 5.0% 6.2% 5 days ago 94.5% 94.10% 5.5% 6.2% 4 days ago 94.5% 94.00% 5.5% 6.6% 3 days ago 94.5% 94.10% 5.0% 7.7% 2 days ago 94.5% 94.00% 5.0% 7.5% yesterday 94.5% 93.80% 5.0% 5.3% today 94.5% 93.85% 5.0% 6.2% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
aiPennsylvania governor
POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election
Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Pennsylvania governor
Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 96.8%, Kalshi 97.1%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.15%, Kalshi 3.15%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 4–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Josh Shapiro 97% · Stacy Garrity 3.1%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Josh Shapiro (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$7.5K95.5%Kalshi99.1K contracts · 97%/98%—venue gap—7-day move+1.3ppStacy Garrity (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$41.6K2.75%Kalshi391K contracts · 2.6%/3.7%—venue gap—7-day move-0.6ppEvery sample behind the chart. Pennsylvania governor, snapshot Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT. Day Josh Shapiro · Polymarket Josh Shapiro · Kalshi Stacy Garrity · Polymarket Stacy Garrity · Kalshi 7 days ago 95.50% — 2.75% — 6 days ago 95.50% — 2.50% — 5 days ago 95.50% — 2.25% — 4 days ago 95.50% — 2.30% 4.90% 3 days ago 95.50% 96.0% 2.30% 4.90% 2 days ago 96.85% 97.7% 2.25% 4.30% yesterday 96.80% 96.7% 2.20% 4.30% today 96.80% 97.1% 2.15% 3.15% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
agTexas governor
POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election
Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead after the Democratic side gained about three points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Texas governor
Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 81.2%, Kalshi 81.5%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 18.5%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Greg Abbott 81% · Gina Hinojosa 20%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Greg Abbott (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$40.7K82.35%Kalshi167K contracts · 81%/82%86.00%venue gap3.6pp7-day move-1.1ppGina Hinojosa (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$51.3K18.5%Kalshi616K contracts · 20%/21%15.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas governor, snapshot Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT. Day Greg Abbott · Polymarket Greg Abbott · Kalshi Gina Hinojosa · Polymarket Gina Hinojosa · Kalshi 7 days ago 82.35% 86.0% 18.5% 15.0% 6 days ago 83.05% 86.0% 16.0% 16.0% 5 days ago 78.75% 86.0% 17.5% 16.0% 4 days ago 81.55% 85.0% 19.0% 16.0% 3 days ago 81.75% 85.0% 18.5% 17.0% 2 days ago 81.20% 84.0% 18.5% 18.0% yesterday 81.20% 81.0% 18.5% 20.0% today 81.20% 81.5% 18.5% 20.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
vWisconsin governor
POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election
David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).
An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Wisconsin governor
Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 82.5%, Kalshi 79.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 18.5%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: David Crowley 81% · Tom Tiffany 20%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
David Crowley (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$293K80.5%Kalshi449K contracts · 79%/80%78.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+2.0ppTom Tiffany (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$263K19.5%Kalshi467K contracts · 20%/21%20.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Wisconsin governor, snapshot Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT. Day David Crowley · Polymarket David Crowley · Kalshi Tom Tiffany · Polymarket Tom Tiffany · Kalshi 7 days ago 80.5% 78.0% 19.5% 20.0% 6 days ago 80.5% 80.0% 19.5% 21.0% 5 days ago 81.5% 79.0% 19.5% 21.0% 4 days ago 81.5% 80.0% 19.5% 20.0% 3 days ago 82.5% 80.0% 18.5% 19.0% 2 days ago 82.5% 78.0% 18.5% 21.0% yesterday 82.5% 80.0% 18.5% 21.0% today 82.5% 79.5% 18.5% 20.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
Also in elections5
jVance says the six-month Iran conflict is not a war, two days after about 100 U.S. strikes
TIME: Vance says the six-month Iran conflict is not a war, two days after about 100 U.S. strikes
At the first White House press briefing in more than 40 days, Vice President JD Vance said on Thursday, Sept. 3: "I wouldn't call it a war. Right now, there is no active shooting." He said major combat ended with the roughly six-week campaign the administration named Epic Fury, and gave no end date. Central Command reported about 100 strikes on Iranian coastal targets on Tuesday, Sept. 1.
- Calling it a war would start the 1973 War Powers Act clock, forcing a withdrawal or a congressional vote.
- 55% of Americans already oppose the conflict.
- Thomas Massie (Rep-R Kentucky) called the label fight "an insult to the men and women fighting the war"; Democrats made the same objection.
Calling it a war would start the 1973 War Powers Act clock that forces a withdrawal or a congressional vote.
kDOJ asks the Supreme Court to unblock the USPS mail-ballot rule, one day before ballots go out
CBS NEWS: DOJ asks the Supreme Court to unblock the USPS mail-ballot rule, one day before ballots go out
The administration told the Supreme Court that Judge Indira Talwani's block on the Aug. 21 rule — which includes a federal portal for voter data — risks "sowing confusion," while election officials say the requirements cannot be implemented before the first state starts mailing ballots on Sept. 4.
[PREVIOUSLY]
On Sept. 1, a federal judge left the new Postal Service mail-ballot requirements blocked, finding the agency likely had no authority to issue the rule at all, and set a Sept. 3 hearing on a longer freeze.
- USPS published the rule on Aug. 21, 2026.
- The first state begins mailing ballots to voters Friday, Sept. 4, 2026.
- Jackson set a Tuesday deadline for states to respond.
Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson gave states until Tuesday to respond.
lMissouri Supreme Court votes 7-0 to block the GOP House map for November
AP: Missouri Supreme Court votes 7-0 to block the GOP House map for November
Missouri will vote in November on its 2022 map — 6 Republican and 2 Democratic seats — after the court ruled a referendum backed by more than 300,000 signatures must go to voters. That likely saves Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver's Kansas City district. The state attorney general said he will appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court.
The 2022 map governs the midterms while a citizen referendum goes on the ballot.
mMaryland's top court puts a Democratic redistricting amendment on the November ballot
NBC NEWS: Maryland's top court puts a Democratic redistricting amendment on the November ballot
The court reversed two lower-court rulings and put the amendment on the ballot with a rewritten summary. If voters pass it, Democrats could redraw districts in 2028. The target would be the state's one GOP-held US House seat. Democrats already hold 7 of 8.
The measure eases the state's congressional map rules; it does not touch this year's map.
nMissouri GOP candidate Thomas Ross charged with plotting to plant cocaine on the rival he beat by 33 votes
CBS NEWS: Missouri GOP candidate Thomas Ross charged with plotting to plant cocaine on the rival he beat by 33 votes
Ross, 37, is charged with federal conspiracy to distribute drugs. His former campaign manager told the FBI that Ross asked him to plant cocaine and Adderall on primary opponent Louise Secker. State GOP chairman Peter Kinder wants Ross off the November ballot before the Sept. 8 withdrawal deadline.
- Ross beat Secker by 33 votes in the August primary.
- Ross's reported instruction to the campaign manager: "If you can pull it off ... pull it off."
- Kinder: "The circumstances of his arrest are serious and deeply troubling."
“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.