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Ongoing21 earlier updates59 days

This story has run 22 times over 59 days, starting Jul 23.

  1. Trump Threatens to Bomb Iranian Bridges and Power Plants for Every Ship Hit in Strait of Hormuz
  2. Iran fires multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. base in Jordan; all are intercepted
  3. Iran denies Trump’s claim that new U.S. talks would start Monday
  4. Cargo ship is struck in the Strait of Hormuz
  5. Vance says the Iran talks are moving, then calls the war only half over
  6. Iran won't reopen Hormuz until the US unfreezes its assets and lifts the blockade
  7. Trump threatens to bomb Oman, the U.S. ally brokering the deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
  8. Trump declares an "economic D-Day" on Iran as Hormuz traffic runs 85% below normal
  9. UpdateU.S. goes nearly a month without large Iran strikes as Trump shifts back to sanctions; Hormuz remains closed
  10. U.S. destroys two Iranian rocket launchers loaded to mine the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at bases in Jordan, all intercepted
  11. UpdateU.S. bombs two Iranian rocket sites near the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at Jordan
  12. UpdateU.S. forces struck IRGC air-defense, radar, maritime and mine-laying sites on Iran's southern coast starting at noon on Sept. 1
  13. UpdateU.S. hits about 100 Iranian targets; Iran fires back at American bases in four countries, and a cruise missile kills 4 at a wedding
  14. Reuters weapons experts say a US munition made a direct hit on the Iranian wedding house that killed 5
  15. US destroys or disables 3 Iranian oil tankers after Iran fired ballistic missiles at a US carrier and destroyer
  16. UpdateIran says it hit an unmanned US vessel a day after the tanker strikes; Central Command calls the claim "a total lie"
  17. UpdateIran says it will declare a restricted zone near the Strait of Hormuz and will strike threats "even before" they are carried out
  18. Iran says it seized a US sea drone in Hormuz; CENTCOM says it malfunctioned a day earlier
  19. UpdateIran fires 20 missiles at a US base in Jordan; Jordan says it intercepted 18
  20. UpdateNavy plans to keep 2 carrier groups near Iran at least through 2026
  21. UpdateUnidentified projectile hits Iranian container ship off Hengam Island, killing 1 and wounding 4
  22. UpdateOil's chokepoint shifts to refineries and tankers as JPMorgan drops its baseline oil forecast — this issue
BLOOMBERGUpdate

Oil's chokepoint shifts to refineries and tankers as JPMorgan drops its baseline oil forecast

Political Guyentist · September 20, 20261 min read

BLOOMBERG

The oil shock has shifted from crude supply to refining and shipping. JPMorgan says it no longer has a baseline view for oil markets, pointing to the Iran war, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries and Chinese demand. An attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline cut the main route around the blockaded Strait of Hormuz. Supertankers are scarce. Some long-haul crude trades now lose money.

Catch upwhat happened before · 21 earlier issues
  • Sep. 1 — U.S. forces bombed two Iranian rocket sites near the Strait of Hormuz, killing two; Iran answered with eight missiles at Jordan and Brent climbed.
  • Sep. 3 — The U.S. hit about 100 Iranian targets; Iran counted at least 18 dead, including four at a wedding compound, and fired on American bases in four countries.
  • Sep. 5-10 — The U.S. destroyed or disabled eight Iranian oil tankers over two rounds; Iran fired 20 missiles at a base in Jordan, 18 intercepted.
  • Sep. 8 — Tehran said it would declare a restricted zone near Hormuz and doubled gasoline prices for its heaviest domestic users.
  • Sep. 17 — U.S. gas prices climbed again and diesel hit a record; the national diesel average reached $6.29 a gallon on Sep. 14, per the EIA.
  • Dozens of nations have capped, subsidized or cut fuel taxes, per the IEA, and are curbing demand with remote work and travel limits.
  • The US has set no retail fuel price caps or subsidies.
  • IMF officials: "[A] large share of measures described as temporary lack clear expiration dates or fiscal cost estimates."
20 earlier issues

What we’re less sure of8 of 8 claims