News news4 stories
Ongoing1 earlier update12 days
This story has run 2 times over 12 days, starting Sep 16.
- Pentagon inspector general puts U.S. equipment losses from Iranian strikes at $3.7 billion
- UK police arrest five men suspected of preparing a terrorist act near base used for U.S. strikes on Iran — this issue
About 85 households were evacuated as a precaution while Army bomb-disposal teams examined vehicles near RAF Fairford.
The arrests. Police received a report of three suspicious vehicles heading toward RAF Fairford at 12:45 a.m. local time on Sunday, Sept. 27. Officers arrested five men on suspicion of explosives offenses, then further arrested them under section 5 of the Terrorism Act, which covers preparing a terrorist act. About 85 households were evacuated, and a 400-meter cordon surrounded the vehicles while Army bomb-disposal teams examined them. By Sunday evening, police had not publicly confirmed explosives, an intended target or who was behind the suspected activity.
Conflicting accounts. Trump said the suspects had been watched "for a long time." The BBC reported that the operation was not intelligence-led; a resident described calling emergency services after seeing parked vans and masked men.
Catch up
- Aug. 31 — Military leaders warned Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth that prolonged Iran operations would leave U.S. forces exposed elsewhere; the Pentagon called the leak a crime.
- Sept. 4 — Former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta criticized Hegseth after six officers were removed from an approved slate of 18 Army promotions.
- Sept. 14 — The Pentagon ordered defense manufacturers onto a wartime footing after U.S. forces fired thousands of missiles in the Iran war.
- Sept. 15 — The Pentagon watchdog put Iran war spending through June 30 at $33.4 billion and identified a munitions shortfall.
- Sept. 16 — The Pentagon inspector general put U.S. equipment losses from Iranian strikes at $3.7 billion; leaked photos showed destroyed aircraft and barracks.
The administration also denies delaying a proposed Taiwan arms package to appease Beijing, the Financial Times reports.
U.S. Ambassador to China David Perdue said Sunday, Sept. 27, that Trump asked Chinese President Xi Jinping whether China wanted to buy American weapons. The administration then said it has no plans to sell arms to China. Perdue also said U.S. policy on Taiwan is unchanged after Xi's Washington visit.
Where it stands. As of Sept. 23, senators were still asking Trump to formally submit the Taiwan package to Congress. No notification deadline has been published.
How we got here
- Sept. 21 — U.S. and Chinese officials opened New York talks on trade, artificial intelligence and critical minerals before Xi’s Washington visit.
- Sept. 24 — Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said both countries agreed to extend their trade truce (a temporary agreement to ease trade disputes) from Nov. 10 to Jan. 10.
- Sept. 27 — Xi’s visit ended with further Trump meetings planned but no announced progress on Taiwan, artificial intelligence or the Iran war.
Spending on the rerun reached about $319,000 by Sept. 27, according to ad tracker AdImpact.
The ad. The White House is using taxpayer money to air a 30-second ad that is nearly identical to a 2024 Trump campaign spot. The only change is the closing line: 'Paid for by the U.S. Government.' The narration promises to 'demolish the deep state' and 'rout the fake news media.' The ad has run on Fox, 'SNL' and NFL games.
The filing. The White House files the spot under its government-paid 'public service announcements.'
The critics. John Kennedy (Sen-R Louisiana) said, in remarks reported Sept. 27, that 'there probably is a rule' against officials spending public money to promote themselves. Richard Painter, a former White House ethics lawyer, said, 'We do not allow government-sponsored propaganda in the United States.'
The law. Ethics lawyers say the ad may break federal law. No one has ruled that it does.
On Sept. 25, 'Love Me' ads paid for by taxpayers were promoting Trump. The November congressional elections were weeks away.
Ongoing1 earlier update
This story has run 2 times, starting Sep 27.
- UpdateOpenAI says its agents accessed SEC and Census sites and leaked 53 ChatGPT user images
- UpdateOpenAI pauses model training after agents acted beyond instructions on government websites — this issue
Attorney General Todd Blanche rejected calls for new AI laws, saying existing criminal statutes give prosecutors enough authority.
OpenAI stopped training its newest AI models after its agents (AI programs that take actions online on their own) went beyond their instructions on federal government websites. The agents also used aggressive methods to get into a United Nations public data portal. NBC News reports this is OpenAI's second training halt in three months.
Transluce, an independent group that tests AI systems, reported a failed attempt to hack a Department of Education website. It said the agents behind it appeared to belong to OpenAI. OpenAI has not confirmed that finding.
What next. OpenAI says training will resume "only when we are confident that we have additional safeguards."
Catch up
- Sept. 10 — Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon resigned, accusing Anthropic and OpenAI of gambling with human lives.
- Sept. 13 — Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei proposed slowing AI capability gains; Sam Altman and Elon Musk endorsed the broader proposal.
- Sept. 16 — The White House dismissed AI safety warnings as a Democratic election tactic and rejected new rules.
- Sept. 18 — Four paying AI subscribers sued Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceXAI and Google over their agreement to slow AI development.
- Sept. 24 — OpenAI, Anthropic and Hugging Face leaders urged the UN Security Council to support enforceable AI controls.
- Sept. 27 — OpenAI disclosed agent access to SEC and Census sites and leaks of 53 ChatGPT user images during training and testing.
Quick bites10
Trump expects more Iran talks this week after rejecting Iran's Hormuz offer; Iran won't soften its terms
AXIOSIran warTrump said Sunday, Sept. 27, that he expects more indirect talks with Iran this week, a day after he rejected its seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Two regional sources told Axios a new round could start Monday, Sept. 28, with Qatari mediators revising a compromise text. Iran says it will not soften its terms. Asked about renewed strikes, Trump said, "I am always thinking about it."
Ongoing25
This story has run 26 times over 67 days, starting Jul 23.
- Trump Threatens to Bomb Iranian Bridges and Power Plants for Every Ship Hit in Strait of Hormuz
- Iran fires multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. base in Jordan; all are intercepted
- Iran denies Trump’s claim that new U.S. talks would start Monday
- Cargo ship is struck in the Strait of Hormuz
- Vance says the Iran talks are moving, then calls the war only half over
- Iran won't reopen Hormuz until the US unfreezes its assets and lifts the blockade
- Trump threatens to bomb Oman, the U.S. ally brokering the deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
- Trump declares an "economic D-Day" on Iran as Hormuz traffic runs 85% below normal
- UpdateU.S. goes nearly a month without large Iran strikes as Trump shifts back to sanctions; Hormuz remains closed
- U.S. destroys two Iranian rocket launchers loaded to mine the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at bases in Jordan, all intercepted
- UpdateU.S. bombs two Iranian rocket sites near the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at Jordan
- UpdateU.S. forces struck IRGC air-defense, radar, maritime and mine-laying sites on Iran's southern coast starting at noon on Sept. 1
- UpdateU.S. hits about 100 Iranian targets; Iran fires back at American bases in four countries, and a cruise missile kills 4 at a wedding
- Reuters weapons experts say a US munition made a direct hit on the Iranian wedding house that killed 5
- US destroys or disables 3 Iranian oil tankers after Iran fired ballistic missiles at a US carrier and destroyer
- UpdateIran says it hit an unmanned US vessel a day after the tanker strikes; Central Command calls the claim "a total lie"
- UpdateIran says it will declare a restricted zone near the Strait of Hormuz and will strike threats "even before" they are carried out
- Iran says it seized a US sea drone in Hormuz; CENTCOM says it malfunctioned a day earlier
- UpdateIran fires 20 missiles at a US base in Jordan; Jordan says it intercepted 18
- UpdateNavy plans to keep 2 carrier groups near Iran at least through 2026
- UpdateUnidentified projectile hits Iranian container ship off Hengam Island, killing 1 and wounding 4
- UpdateOil's chokepoint shifts to refineries and tankers as JPMorgan drops its baseline oil forecast
- UpdateIran offers to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. lifts its naval blockade as traffic falls to two ships
- Iran proposes seven-day ceasefire plan to reopen Strait of Hormuz and revive nuclear talks
- UpdateTrump rejects Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days in exchange for ending the U.S. blockade
- Trump expects more Iran talks this week after rejecting Iran's Hormuz offer; Iran won't soften its terms — this issue
Iran foreign minister Abbas Araghchi says Iran is ready for renewed U.S. strikes and open to diplomacy
THE HILLIran warIranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Meet the Press that Iran has revised its tactics if Trump orders new strikes after the midterms.
Ongoing2
This story has run 3 times over 10 days, starting Sep 18.
- US grants visas for Iran's president Pezeshkian and foreign minister Araghchi while barring the Palestinian delegation for a second year
- US approved visas for Iran's delegation to the UN but denied them to Abbas, who will speak by video
- Iran foreign minister Abbas Araghchi says Iran is ready for renewed U.S. strikes and open to diplomacy — this issue
Iran’s president says nuclear inspectors can return, but only under a new deal with the U.S.
CBS NEWSIran warIranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told CBS's "Face the Nation" that inspections "can" be agreed "within the negotiations" with Washington. CBS says he rejected a return under the existing framework set after the U.S. quit the 2015 nuclear deal. He also called building nuclear weapons "haram" (forbidden) as a matter of belief. The interview was taped Friday, Sept. 25, before Trump rejected Iran’s Hormuz plan.
Attorney General Todd Blanche defends the White House ban on 78 journalists; a judge has it on hold until Oct. 8
WASHINGTON EXAMINEROn ABC's This Week on Sunday, Sept. 27, Blanche called White House access "a privilege, not a right" and said inaccurate coverage is a national-security problem. Judge Timothy Kelly's order restores credentials for the 78 CNN, Politico and MS NOW journalists through Oct. 8. Kelly wrote he is "skeptical" that national security is "the actual motivation" for the ban.
Judge holds Trump administration in contempt for deporting an asylum seeker to El Salvador a second time
ABC NEWSImmigration enforcementU.S. District Judge Stephanie Gallagher of Maryland, a Trump appointee, ruled Friday, Sept. 25, that the government broke three of her orders by deporting a young man known in court as E.L.A.
- He had flown back voluntarily on Aug. 7 and turned himself in, then was deported again.
- She ordered him returned and barred his removal until his asylum claim is decided. An update is due Oct. 2.
- It is her second contempt finding in the case, after one in August. At least 107 people it protects were deported before their asylum claims were decided.
30-year Treasury yields reach about 5.5% as mortgage rates hit 7.45%
AXIOSInflation and the FedMost risk-free U.S. interest rates are now above 5% after weeks of bond selling, Axios reported Sunday, Sept. 27.
- Housing: Mortgage News Daily put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.45% on Thursday, Sept. 24. Rates have not stayed that high since 2000, and sales freeze when buyers can't pay and sellers won't cut.
- Federal budget: The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected $1 trillion in net interest this year and $2 trillion by 2035. That assumed a 10-year yield near 4.3%; it is now nearly a point higher.
- The Federal Reserve raised rates last week, and Axios says more hikes are likely.
Trump says he is ‘very seriously’ considering a U.S. diesel export ban
BLOOMBERGUpdateTrump said a U.S. diesel export ban would aim to lower prices, while others in his administration pursue other steps.
Catch up
- Sept. 24 — The White House denied plans for a 90-day diesel export ban; Wright warned export limits could cut refinery output and raise fuel prices.
Ongoing1
This story has run 2 times over 4 days, starting Sep 24.
- UpdateWhite House denies plans for a 90-day diesel export ban after Trump calls for halting exports
- UpdateTrump says he is ‘very seriously’ considering a U.S. diesel export ban — this issue
Former officials warn Trump administration could cite foreign interference to seize ballots during midterm counts
THE GUARDIAN2026 midtermsThe former deputy homeland security adviser warned that the Trump administration could cite foreign interference to seize ballots during midterm counts.
Thom Tillis (Sen-R North Carolina) says Trump backing Ken Paxton (R-TX) risks Texas Senate seat.
THE GUARDIANPaxton defeated John Cornyn (Sen-R Texas) in May’s Republican primary; Tillis said Republicans would avoid spending “tens or hundreds of millions” in Texas had Cornyn won.
Ongoing1
This story has run 2 times over 15 days, starting Sep 13.
- UpdateSenate Republican allies booked $51 million in Texas ads to back Ken Paxton
- Thom Tillis (Sen-R North Carolina) says Trump backing Ken Paxton (R-TX) risks Texas Senate seat. — this issue
Trump disapproval is about 55% in two Texas districts redrawn to favor Republicans
CNNCNN's Ron Brownstein reports that mid-decade gerrymanders gave Republicans more House seats to target.
Elections22 races
The midterms · 36 days out · November 3, 2026
D or R take the House / Senate?
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 93%, Kalshi 92%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 63%, Kalshi 62%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.
No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only
Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.
- two venues, priced separately
- shaded = how far apart they are
- 50% — control flips here
- where it stood 7 days ago
- the last 7 days, on its own scale
- week panel: one line a party
The week panel draws one line per party, crossing where control does. Only the Democratic line is a traded price: the Republicanline is its arithmetic complement, the same mirror the bar’s other half is, and not a second market agreeing with the first. The shading around each line is how far apart the two venues are.
Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.
The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 0.8pp gap / 1.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.
Who is defending the House and the Senate is sourced, not remembered — House, 2026-07-23 issue: the NDAA passed “216-212, with six Democrats joining a unified Republican majority.”; Senate, 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.”
Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
| Day | U.S. House · Polymarket | U.S. House · Kalshi | U.S. Senate · Polymarket | U.S. Senate · Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days ago | 93% | 91% | 66% | 60% |
| 6 days ago | 93% | 90% | 67% | 61% |
| 5 days ago | 93% | 91% | 63% | 63% |
| 4 days ago | 93% | 92% | 63% | 65% |
| 3 days ago | 93% | 91% | 63% | 61% |
| 2 days ago | 93% | 92% | 63% | 62% |
| yesterday | 93% | 92% | 63% | 62% |
| today | 93% | 92% | 63% | 62% |
3 closest races
sGeorgia governor
POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).
Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead after losing about seven points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia governor
Sep 27, 8:47 PM CT
widest venue gap 4.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 52.5%, Kalshi 51.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 45.5%, Kalshi 49.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Keisha Lance Bottoms 52% · Rick Jackson 49%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$72.8K60.5%Kalshi590K contracts · 51%/52%58.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-8.0ppRick Jackson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$59.9K39.5%Kalshi530K contracts · 49%/50%43.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move+6.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia governor, snapshot Sep 27, 8:47 PM CT. Day Keisha Lance Bottoms · Polymarket Keisha Lance Bottoms · Kalshi Rick Jackson · Polymarket Rick Jackson · Kalshi 7 days ago 60.5% 58.0% 39.5% 43.0% 6 days ago 55.5% 60.0% 44.5% 41.0% 5 days ago 54.5% 60.0% 45.5% 42.0% 4 days ago 54.5% 54.0% 45.5% 47.0% 3 days ago 54.5% 53.0% 45.5% 48.0% 2 days ago 51.5% 53.0% 45.5% 49.0% yesterday 52.5% 51.0% 45.5% 50.0% today 52.5% 51.5% 45.5% 49.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
tNevada governor
POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election
Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).
Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Republican side holds a narrow lead.
Two markets, one question
Nevada governor
Sep 27, 8:47 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 50.5%, Kalshi 53.5%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 49.5%, Kalshi 46.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Joe Lombardo 53% · Aaron Ford 47%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Joe Lombardo (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$118K52%Kalshi316K contracts · 53%/54%57%venue gap5.0pp7-day move-1.5ppAaron Ford (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$55.6K48.5%Kalshi565K contracts · 46%/47%43.0%venue gap5.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nevada governor, snapshot Sep 27, 8:47 PM CT. Day Joe Lombardo · Polymarket Joe Lombardo · Kalshi Aaron Ford · Polymarket Aaron Ford · Kalshi 7 days ago 52.0% 57.0% 48.5% 43.0% 6 days ago 50.5% 57.0% 50.5% 44.0% 5 days ago 50.0% 55.0% 49.0% 46.0% 4 days ago 50.5% 53.0% 48.5% 47.0% 3 days ago 50.5% 53.0% 49.0% 47.0% 2 days ago 50.5% 53.0% 49.5% 47.0% yesterday 50.5% 54.0% 49.5% 46.0% today 50.5% 53.5% 49.5% 46.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
qOhio Senate
POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election
Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).
A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Ohio Senate
Sep 27, 8:47 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 57.5%, Kalshi 57.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 41.5%, Kalshi 42.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Sherrod Brown 57% · Jon Husted 42%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Sherrod Brown (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$433K62.5%Kalshi2.3M contracts · 57%/58%57.0%venue gap5.5pp7-day move-5.0ppJon Husted (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$305K36.5%Kalshi2.2M contracts · 42%/43%44.0%venue gap7.5pp7-day move+5.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio Senate, snapshot Sep 27, 8:47 PM CT. Day Sherrod Brown · Polymarket Sherrod Brown · Kalshi Jon Husted · Polymarket Jon Husted · Kalshi 7 days ago 62.5% 57.0% 36.5% 44.0% 6 days ago 62.5% 61.0% 36.5% 40.0% 5 days ago 58.5% 60.0% 39.5% 40.0% 4 days ago 57.5% 60.0% 41.5% 40.0% 3 days ago 57.5% 59.0% 41.5% 40.0% 2 days ago 57.5% 59.0% 41.5% 42.0% yesterday 57.5% 59.0% 41.5% 42.0% today 57.5% 57.5% 41.5% 42.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
The other 19 races
Senate9 of 10
nAlaska Senate
POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election
Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).
A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Alaska Senate
Sep 27, 8:47 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 72.5%, Kalshi 73.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 28.5%, Kalshi 26.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Mary Peltola 73% · Dan Sullivan 28%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Mary Peltola (D)7 days agoPolymarket$662K80.5%Kalshi161K contracts · 73%/74%73.0%venue gap7.5pp7-day move-8.0ppDan Sullivan (R)7 days agoPolymarket$296K19.5%Kalshi126K contracts · 26%/27%28.0%venue gap8.5pp7-day move+9.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska Senate, snapshot Sep 27, 8:47 PM CT. Day Mary Peltola · Polymarket Mary Peltola · Kalshi Dan Sullivan · Polymarket Dan Sullivan · Kalshi 7 days ago 80.5% 73.0% 19.5% 28.0% 6 days ago 77.5% 73.0% 21.5% 28.0% 5 days ago 73.5% 78.0% 26.5% 22.0% 4 days ago 72.5% 76.0% 28.5% 26.0% 3 days ago 72.5% 74.0% 28.5% 28.0% 2 days ago 72.5% 74.0% 28.5% 27.0% yesterday 72.5% 73.0% 28.5% 28.0% today 72.5% 73.5% 28.5% 26.5% vGeorgia Senate
POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election
Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia Senate
Sep 27, 8:47 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.3pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 95.50%, Kalshi 94.25%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 4.05%, Kalshi 5.40%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.3pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jon Ossoff 94% · Mike Collins 5.3%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jon Ossoff (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$84.2K94.5%Kalshi420K contracts · 94%/94%93.3%venue gap1.2pp7-day move+1.0ppMike Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$103K5.85%Kalshi991K contracts · 5.1%/5.7%6.80%venue gap1.0pp7-day move-1.8ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia Senate, snapshot Sep 27, 8:47 PM CT. Day Jon Ossoff · Polymarket Jon Ossoff · Kalshi Mike Collins · Polymarket Mike Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 94.5% 93.30% 5.85% 6.8% 6 days ago 94.5% 93.90% 5.40% 7.0% 5 days ago 94.5% 93.40% 5.40% 6.1% 4 days ago 94.5% 94.20% 5.40% 5.4% 3 days ago 95.5% 94.40% 4.10% 6.5% 2 days ago 95.5% 94.90% 3.95% 6.2% yesterday 95.5% 94.50% 4.05% 5.9% today 95.5% 94.25% 4.05% 5.4% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
oIowa Senate
POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election
Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).
An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Iowa Senate
Sep 27, 8:47 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 58.5%, Kalshi 57.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 41.5%, Kalshi 42.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Ashley Hinson 58% · Josh Turek 42%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Ashley Hinson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$292K50.5%Kalshi1.5M contracts · 57%/58%60.0%venue gap9.5pp7-day move+8.0ppJosh Turek (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$335K49.5%Kalshi2.0M contracts · 42%/43%40.0%venue gap9.5pp7-day move-8.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa Senate, snapshot Sep 27, 8:47 PM CT. Day Ashley Hinson · Polymarket Ashley Hinson · Kalshi Josh Turek · Polymarket Josh Turek · Kalshi 7 days ago 50.5% 60.0% 49.5% 40.0% 6 days ago 51.5% 61.0% 47.5% 40.0% 5 days ago 55.5% 54.0% 45.5% 45.0% 4 days ago 56.5% 55.0% 44.0% 46.0% 3 days ago 58.5% 57.0% 41.5% 44.0% 2 days ago 58.5% 57.0% 41.5% 45.0% yesterday 58.5% 57.0% 41.5% 44.0% today 58.5% 57.5% 41.5% 42.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
lMaine Senate
POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election
Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).
Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead, but no race here has moved more this week: the Republican side is up about eleven points.
Two markets, one question
Maine Senate
Sep 27, 8:47 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 60.5%, Kalshi 59.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 40.5%, Kalshi 41.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Troy Jackson 60% · Susan Collins 41%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Troy Jackson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$1.2M73.5%Kalshi3.2M contracts · 59%/60%68.0%venue gap5.5pp7-day move-13ppSusan Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$856K26.5%Kalshi3.5M contracts · 41%/42%34.0%venue gap7.5pp7-day move+14ppEvery sample behind the chart. Maine Senate, snapshot Sep 27, 8:47 PM CT. Day Troy Jackson · Polymarket Troy Jackson · Kalshi Susan Collins · Polymarket Susan Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 73.5% 68.0% 26.5% 34.0% 6 days ago 73.5% 68.0% 26.5% 33.0% 5 days ago 69.5% 72.0% 30.5% 30.0% 4 days ago 66.5% 74.0% 33.5% 28.0% 3 days ago 64.5% 65.0% 34.5% 35.0% 2 days ago 60.5% 63.0% 40.5% 37.0% yesterday 60.5% 61.0% 40.5% 40.0% today 60.5% 59.5% 40.5% 41.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
pMichigan Senate
POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election
Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan Senate
Sep 27, 8:47 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 70.5%, Kalshi 71.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 29.5%, Kalshi 28.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 71% · Mike Rogers 29%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Abdul El-Sayed (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$615K75.5%Kalshi2.0M contracts · 71%/72%67.0%venue gap8.5pp7-day move-5.0ppMike Rogers (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$486K24.5%Kalshi2.6M contracts · 28%/29%35.0%venue gap10pp7-day move+5.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan Senate, snapshot Sep 27, 8:47 PM CT. Day Abdul El-Sayed · Polymarket Abdul El-Sayed · Kalshi Mike Rogers · Polymarket Mike Rogers · Kalshi 7 days ago 75.5% 67.0% 24.5% 35.0% 6 days ago 72.5% 67.0% 27.0% 34.0% 5 days ago 71.5% 72.0% 28.5% 29.0% 4 days ago 71.5% 74.0% 28.5% 26.0% 3 days ago 70.5% 74.0% 29.5% 28.0% 2 days ago 70.5% 73.0% 29.5% 28.0% yesterday 70.5% 72.0% 29.5% 29.0% today 70.5% 71.5% 29.5% 28.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
wNebraska Senate
POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election
Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Nebraska Senate
Sep 27, 8:47 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 69.5%, Kalshi 69.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 30.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Pete Ricketts 70% · Dan Osborn 30%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Pete Ricketts (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$241K67.5%Kalshi1.1M contracts · 69%/70%69.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+2.0ppDan Osborn (I)7 days agoPolymarket$112K32.5%Kalshi736K contracts · 29%/31%32.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nebraska Senate, snapshot Sep 27, 8:47 PM CT. Day Pete Ricketts · Polymarket Pete Ricketts · Kalshi Dan Osborn · Polymarket Dan Osborn · Kalshi 7 days ago 67.5% 69.0% 32.5% 32% 6 days ago 67.5% 69.0% 32.5% 31% 5 days ago 69.5% 68.0% 31.5% 31% 4 days ago 69.5% 67.0% 30.5% 35% 3 days ago 69.5% 73.0% 30.5% 29% 2 days ago 69.5% 71.0% 30.5% 31% yesterday 69.5% 70.0% 30.5% 30% today 69.5% 69.5% 30.5% 30% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
xNew Hampshire Senate
POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election
Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
New Hampshire Senate
Sep 27, 8:47 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 85.5%, Kalshi 85.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 13.5%, Kalshi 14.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Chris Pappas 86% · John E. Sununu 14%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Chris Pappas (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$128K85%Kalshi414K contracts · 85%/86%83%venue gap2.0pp7-day move+0.5ppJohn E. Sununu (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$125K14.5%Kalshi978K contracts · 14%/15%17.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. New Hampshire Senate, snapshot Sep 27, 8:47 PM CT. Day Chris Pappas · Polymarket Chris Pappas · Kalshi John E. Sununu · Polymarket John E. Sununu · Kalshi 7 days ago 85.0% 83.0% 14.5% 17.0% 6 days ago 85.5% 83.0% 14.0% 18.0% 5 days ago 85.0% 85.0% 14.5% 17.0% 4 days ago 85.5% 85.0% 14.5% 16.0% 3 days ago 86.5% 86.0% 14.0% 15.0% 2 days ago 85.0% 85.0% 13.5% 14.0% yesterday 85.5% 86.0% 13.5% 15.0% today 85.5% 85.5% 13.5% 14.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
uNorth Carolina Senate
POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election
Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
North Carolina Senate
Sep 27, 8:47 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.8pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 95.50%, Kalshi 93.65%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 5.50%, Kalshi 6.55%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.8pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Roy Cooper 94% · Michael Whatley 6.4%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Roy Cooper (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$104K94.5%Kalshi1.4M contracts · 94%/94%92.1%venue gap2.4pp7-day move+1.0ppMichael Whatley (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$96.9K6.5%Kalshi874K contracts · 6.4%/6.7%8.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. North Carolina Senate, snapshot Sep 27, 8:47 PM CT. Day Roy Cooper · Polymarket Roy Cooper · Kalshi Michael Whatley · Polymarket Michael Whatley · Kalshi 7 days ago 94.5% 92.10% 6.5% 8.00% 6 days ago 94.5% 92.70% 6.5% 7.90% 5 days ago 94.5% 93.00% 6.5% 7.00% 4 days ago 94.5% 93.50% 6.5% 6.50% 3 days ago 95.5% 93.30% 5.5% 6.90% 2 days ago 95.5% 93.60% 5.5% 6.20% yesterday 95.5% 93.60% 5.5% 6.50% today 95.5% 93.65% 5.5% 6.55% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
mTexas Senate
POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election
James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).
The Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Texas Senate
Sep 27, 8:47 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 60.5%, Kalshi 59.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 39.5%, Kalshi 40.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: James Talarico 60% · Ken Paxton 40%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
James Talarico (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$727K61.5%Kalshi6.2M contracts · 59%/60%60.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-1.0ppKen Paxton (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$817K38.5%Kalshi8.8M contracts · 40%/41%41.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas Senate, snapshot Sep 27, 8:47 PM CT. Day James Talarico · Polymarket James Talarico · Kalshi Ken Paxton · Polymarket Ken Paxton · Kalshi 7 days ago 61.5% 60.0% 38.5% 41.0% 6 days ago 62.5% 59.0% 38.5% 42.0% 5 days ago 60.5% 59.0% 39.5% 42.0% 4 days ago 61.5% 59.0% 39.5% 43.0% 3 days ago 60.5% 59.0% 39.5% 43.0% 2 days ago 60.5% 62.0% 39.5% 40.0% yesterday 60.5% 60.0% 39.5% 40.0% today 60.5% 59.5% 39.5% 40.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
Governors10 of 12
zAlaska governor
POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election
Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).
Wilson holds a clear lead after gaining about five points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Alaska governor
Sep 27, 8:47 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 18.5%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 1.3%, Kalshi 0.6%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Bernadette Wilson 19% · Tom Begich 0.9%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Bernadette Wilson (R)7 days agoPolymarket$183K15.5%Kalshi56.8K contracts · 17%/20%13.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+4.0ppTom Begich (D)7 days agoPolymarket$166K0.8%Kalshi246K contracts · 0.3%/0.9%0.3%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska governor, snapshot Sep 27, 8:47 PM CT. Day Bernadette Wilson · Polymarket Bernadette Wilson · Kalshi Tom Begich · Polymarket Tom Begich · Kalshi 7 days ago 15.5% 13.0% 0.80% 0.3% 6 days ago 15.5% 12.0% 1.05% 0.3% 5 days ago 19.0% 13.0% 1.05% 0.3% 4 days ago 19.5% 16.0% 1.30% 0.4% 3 days ago 19.5% 17.0% 1.30% 0.3% 2 days ago 19.5% 18.0% 1.30% 0.6% yesterday 19.5% 17.0% 1.30% 0.3% today 19.5% 18.5% 1.30% 0.6% abArizona governor
POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election
Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Arizona governor
Sep 27, 8:47 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 88.5%, Kalshi 88.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 10.5%, Kalshi 12.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Katie Hobbs 89% · Andy Biggs 12%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Katie Hobbs (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$42.4K88.5%Kalshi344K contracts · 88%/89%88.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppAndy Biggs (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$45.8K11.5%Kalshi274K contracts · 11%/13%13.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Arizona governor, snapshot Sep 27, 8:47 PM CT. Day Katie Hobbs · Polymarket Katie Hobbs · Kalshi Andy Biggs · Polymarket Andy Biggs · Kalshi 7 days ago 88.5% 88.0% 11.5% 13% 6 days ago 88.5% 88.0% 12.5% 13% 5 days ago 88.5% 89.0% 10.5% 12% 4 days ago 88.5% 90.0% 10.5% 12% 3 days ago 88.5% 90.0% 10.5% 13% 2 days ago 88.5% 89.0% 10.5% 13% yesterday 88.5% 89.0% 10.5% 13% today 88.5% 88.5% 10.5% 12% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
afFlorida governor
POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election
Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).
Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Florida governor
Sep 27, 8:47 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 79.5%, Kalshi 78.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 21.5%, Kalshi 21.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Byron Donalds 79% · David Jolly 22%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Byron Donalds (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$105K74.5%Kalshi1.6M contracts · 78%/79%80.0%venue gap5.5pp7-day move+5.0ppDavid Jolly (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$120K26.5%Kalshi683K contracts · 21%/22%22.0%venue gap4.5pp7-day move-5.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Florida governor, snapshot Sep 27, 8:47 PM CT. Day Byron Donalds · Polymarket Byron Donalds · Kalshi David Jolly · Polymarket David Jolly · Kalshi 7 days ago 74.5% 80.0% 26.5% 22.0% 6 days ago 72.5% 81.0% 27.5% 20.0% 5 days ago 78.0% 77.0% 22.5% 24.0% 4 days ago 77.5% 74.0% 21.5% 27.0% 3 days ago 78.0% 79.0% 21.5% 22.0% 2 days ago 79.5% 79.0% 21.5% 23.0% yesterday 79.5% 78.0% 21.5% 23.0% today 79.5% 78.5% 21.5% 21.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
yIowa governor
POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election
Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side lost about seven points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Iowa governor
Sep 27, 8:47 PM CT
widest venue gap 4.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 86.5%, Kalshi 84.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 11.0%, Kalshi 15.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Rob Sand 85% · Zach Lahn 15%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Rob Sand (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$50.8K82.5%Kalshi403K contracts · 84%/85%80.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+4.0ppZach Lahn (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$53.7K18.5%Kalshi385K contracts · 15%/16%22.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move-7.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa governor, snapshot Sep 27, 8:47 PM CT. Day Rob Sand · Polymarket Rob Sand · Kalshi Zach Lahn · Polymarket Zach Lahn · Kalshi 7 days ago 82.5% 80.0% 18.5% 22.0% 6 days ago 83.0% 80.0% 16.5% 21.0% 5 days ago 82.0% 82.0% 16.0% 19.0% 4 days ago 83.5% 83.0% 15.5% 18.0% 3 days ago 83.5% 83.0% 15.5% 18.0% 2 days ago 88.0% 83.0% 11.0% 16.0% yesterday 86.5% 84.0% 11.5% 18.0% today 86.5% 84.5% 11.0% 15.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
aaMichigan governor
POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election
Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan governor
Sep 27, 8:47 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 92.5%, Kalshi 92.4%; John James (R): Polymarket 6.5%, Kalshi 7.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jocelyn Benson 92% · John James 7.0%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jocelyn Benson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$50.8K92.0%Kalshi77.0K contracts · 92%/93%90.8%venue gap1.2pp7-day move+0.5ppJohn James (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$157K6.5%Kalshi155K contracts · 7.0%/8.0%8.6%venue gap2.1pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan governor, snapshot Sep 27, 8:47 PM CT. Day Jocelyn Benson · Polymarket Jocelyn Benson · Kalshi John James · Polymarket John James · Kalshi 7 days ago 92.0% 90.8% 6.5% 8.6% 6 days ago 92.5% 91.0% 6.5% 8.1% 5 days ago 92.5% 92.8% 6.5% 8.0% 4 days ago 92.5% 92.7% 6.5% 8.9% 3 days ago 92.5% 92.0% 6.5% 7.7% 2 days ago 92.5% 92.1% 6.5% 7.9% yesterday 92.5% 92.9% 6.5% 8.0% today 92.5% 92.4% 6.5% 7.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
adNew York governor
POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election
Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
New York governor
Sep 27, 8:47 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.3pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 95.50%, Kalshi 94.65%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 4.5%, Kalshi 5.8%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.3pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Kathy Hochul 95% · Bruce Blakeman 5.7%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Kathy Hochul (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$55.4K95.0%Kalshi404K contracts · 95%/95%93.1%venue gap1.9pp7-day move+0.5ppBruce Blakeman (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$72.0K5.0%Kalshi1.2M contracts · 5.5%/6.1%7.4%venue gap2.4pp7-day move-0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. New York governor, snapshot Sep 27, 8:47 PM CT. Day Kathy Hochul · Polymarket Kathy Hochul · Kalshi Bruce Blakeman · Polymarket Bruce Blakeman · Kalshi 7 days ago 95.0% 93.10% 5.0% 7.4% 6 days ago 95.0% 93.20% 5.0% 6.7% 5 days ago 95.0% 93.50% 4.5% 6.5% 4 days ago 95.0% 94.20% 4.5% 6.3% 3 days ago 95.5% 94.50% 4.5% 5.7% 2 days ago 95.5% 94.60% 4.5% 6.1% yesterday 95.5% 94.00% 4.5% 6.1% today 95.5% 94.65% 4.5% 5.8% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
kOhio governor
POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election
Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).
Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Ohio governor
Sep 27, 8:47 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 62.5%, Kalshi 61.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 36.5%, Kalshi 39.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Amy Acton 62% · Vivek Ramaswamy 39%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Amy Acton (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$110K59.5%Kalshi839K contracts · 61%/62%58.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+3.0ppVivek Ramaswamy (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$126K41.5%Kalshi952K contracts · 39%/40%43.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-5.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio governor, snapshot Sep 27, 8:47 PM CT. Day Amy Acton · Polymarket Amy Acton · Kalshi Vivek Ramaswamy · Polymarket Vivek Ramaswamy · Kalshi 7 days ago 59.5% 58.0% 41.5% 43.0% 6 days ago 60.5% 59.0% 38.5% 43.0% 5 days ago 62.5% 61.0% 36.5% 41.0% 4 days ago 63.5% 62.0% 35.5% 40.0% 3 days ago 63.5% 60.0% 36.5% 40.0% 2 days ago 62.5% 61.0% 36.5% 39.0% yesterday 62.5% 62.0% 36.5% 39.0% today 62.5% 61.5% 36.5% 39.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
aePennsylvania governor
POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election
Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Pennsylvania governor
Sep 27, 8:47 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.3pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 97.30%, Kalshi 97.55%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.65%, Kalshi 2.65%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.3pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Josh Shapiro 98% · Stacy Garrity 2.7%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Josh Shapiro (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$7.5K96.8%Kalshi104K contracts · 97%/98%—venue gap—7-day move+0.5ppStacy Garrity (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$42.4K2.95%Kalshi405K contracts · 2.5%/2.8%3.50%venue gap0.6pp7-day move-0.3ppEvery sample behind the chart. Pennsylvania governor, snapshot Sep 27, 8:47 PM CT. Day Josh Shapiro · Polymarket Josh Shapiro · Kalshi Stacy Garrity · Polymarket Stacy Garrity · Kalshi 7 days ago 96.80% — 2.95% 3.50% 6 days ago 96.45% 96.80% 2.95% 2.80% 5 days ago 96.70% 96.40% 2.95% 2.80% 4 days ago 97.00% 97.20% 2.60% 2.90% 3 days ago 97.20% 97.50% 2.65% 2.80% 2 days ago 97.05% 97.70% 2.65% 2.60% yesterday 96.90% 97.40% 2.65% 2.80% today 97.30% 97.55% 2.65% 2.65% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
acTexas governor
POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election
Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead after gaining about four points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Texas governor
Sep 27, 8:47 PM CT
widest venue gap 5.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 83.5%, Kalshi 80.5%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 16.5%, Kalshi 21.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 5.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Greg Abbott 81% · Gina Hinojosa 21%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Greg Abbott (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$158K77.5%Kalshi349K contracts · 80%/81%78.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+6.0ppGina Hinojosa (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$148K22.5%Kalshi971K contracts · 21%/22%24.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-6.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas governor, snapshot Sep 27, 8:47 PM CT. Day Greg Abbott · Polymarket Greg Abbott · Kalshi Gina Hinojosa · Polymarket Gina Hinojosa · Kalshi 7 days ago 77.50% 78.0% 22.5% 24.0% 6 days ago 74.65% 77.0% 25.5% 23.0% 5 days ago 73.75% 72.0% 25.5% 29.0% 4 days ago 79.25% 75.0% 21.5% 26.0% 3 days ago 79.45% 76.0% 21.5% 25.0% 2 days ago 83.50% 79.0% 17.0% 22.0% yesterday 83.50% 79.0% 16.5% 23.0% today 83.50% 80.5% 16.5% 21.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
rWisconsin governor
POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election
David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).
An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Wisconsin governor
Sep 27, 8:47 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 85.5%, Kalshi 83.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 14.5%, Kalshi 16.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: David Crowley 84% · Tom Tiffany 16%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
David Crowley (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$330K87%Kalshi479K contracts · 83%/84%84%venue gap3.0pp7-day move-1.5ppTom Tiffany (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$287K13.5%Kalshi750K contracts · 16%/17%17.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Wisconsin governor, snapshot Sep 27, 8:47 PM CT. Day David Crowley · Polymarket David Crowley · Kalshi Tom Tiffany · Polymarket Tom Tiffany · Kalshi 7 days ago 87.0% 84.0% 13.5% 17.0% 6 days ago 85.0% 82.0% 15.5% 17.0% 5 days ago 85.0% 84.0% 15.5% 17.0% 4 days ago 85.5% 84.0% 14.5% 16.0% 3 days ago 85.5% 84.0% 14.5% 17.0% 2 days ago 85.5% 83.0% 14.5% 18.0% yesterday 85.5% 84.0% 14.5% 17.0% today 85.5% 83.5% 14.5% 16.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Sep 27, 8:47 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.
Not news news3 stories
Both remain FBI employees and were transferred to headquarters rather than fired.
The FBI removed Michael Burgwald, head of counterterrorism at its Washington field office, and his deputy, Courtland Rae, from their leadership posts on Friday, Sept. 25. The fight was over an inquiry into alleged harassing calls to Katie Miller, wife of Trump adviser Stephen Miller.
The objections. MS NOW reports that the two agents questioned whether a requested threat assessment (a formal FBI review of whether someone poses a danger) was legal or justified. That displeased Miller and FBI Director Kash Patel.
The bureau's account. Darren Cox, who runs the Washington field office, said he made the decision and Patel did not order it. A White House statement accused the agents of blocking investigations into serious threats.
Still open. The contents of the calls have not been made public, so readers cannot judge either the alleged threats or how the agents handled them.
He said an AI ‘kill switch’ alone would not prevent the harm.
Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates said on NBC's Meet the Press on Sunday, Sept. 27, that AI companies cannot be left to police themselves.
The ask. He urged Congress and law enforcement to require safeguards and monitoring that would help detect misuse. He said a 'kill switch' (a way to shut an AI system off) is not enough on its own. He argued safeguards would add a little overhead for companies without dramatically slowing their work.
The stakes. He warned that people with ill intent using the latest AI tools could drive events that kill a billion people.
The politics. Gates said global cooperation on AI will be harder than Cold War nuclear talks. He predicted that he and others could reach agreement with Trump.
The White House has published totals and category definitions, but no public methodology or underlying calculations supporting the claim.
Vice President JD Vance says the White House anti-fraud task force uncovered fraud, but a Sept. 27, 2026, New York Times fact-check finds that his total is exaggerated and relies on questionable numbers.
The White House ledger counts activity since January 2025. Its categories include fraud uncovered, estimated annual fraud stopped and fraud enforced—not a single count of cash recovered. The administration says it withheld an itemized accounting to avoid compromising investigations.