Political Guyentist
Political Guyentist

Saturday

Three side-by-side portraits show a woman wearing pale glasses, a man in a green hoodie, and a man wearing a Sullivan vest.
NBC News
1usUpdatecontestedAlaska Senate race

Alaska's U.S. attorney confirms a criminal probe, open since July, into who put a second Dan Sullivan on the Senate ballot

Grand jury subpoenas went to Mary Peltola's campaign and to Daniel J. Sullivan; Peltola says she "knew nothing" about the second candidate.

- Oct. 15 — Sen. Dan Sullivan and Mary Peltola met in their final debate in a toss-up race. - Oct. 22 — DOJ sued to block certification if Sullivan loses, citing a second candidate, retired teacher Daniel J. Sullivan; Trump later said, "I'm the one that said do it." - Oct. 24–26 — Peltola and Senate Democrats moved to kill the suit, which asks for a recount as if every Daniel J. Sullivan vote went to the incumbent; DOJ's Todd Blanche said it was "not saying don't certify." - Oct. 26–27 — Daniel J. Sullivan called the suit a "gross misuse"; Alaska's Republican-led state government joined the bid to end it. - Oct. 28 — The New York Times reported Peltola's campaign helped recruit Daniel J. Sullivan; Trump urged prosecution. The Times' key source, fired campaign manager Elisa Rios, later tried to retract. - Oct. 29 — Gov. Mike Dunleavy ordered a state criminal probe, and DOJ subpoenaed Democrats.

ContextIn Alaska, putting a second candidate with the same name on the ballot is not automatically a crime. Scott Kendall, an Alaska lawyer and former Republican operative, calls it "a nasty, dirty trick." But under the Alaska Supreme Court's reading of the law, he says, "it is not illegal." Heyman has not said which laws are at issue. "I'm also not going to put the cart before the horse," Heyman said. The federal case is one of three. Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy ordered a state investigation of the Peltola campaign. The House Oversight and Government Reform Committee opened its own. The Times report drew on 12 interviews and on text messages. The Justice Department's amended complaint says that reporting "aligns with what the United States has been alleging." It accuses the Peltola campaign and the DSCC (the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee) of misleading the court. Dunleavy blamed ranked-choice voting for letting the second Sullivan onto the ballot. Under that system, voters rank candidates, and ballots for the last-place finisher move to each voter's next pick. Republicans hold the Senate 53-47, so the seat matters to the majority.

NBC NEWS12 sources

2usUpdate

9th Circuit panel denies, 2-1, DOJ's emergency bid to make California set aside the ballots of about 20,000 people it calls likely noncitizens

Trump appointee Mark Bennett and Biden appointee Gabriel Sanchez formed the majority; Trump appointee Patrick Bumatay dissented.

- Oct. 15 — DOJ sued California and Los Angeles County to stop the count of mail ballots tied to a DHS list of suspected noncitizens. - Oct. 16–17 — DOJ warned officials who count those ballots could be prosecuted as "aiders and abettors"; Trump said L.A. officials "will all go to jail." - Oct. 19 — DOJ charged 28 green-card holders from the list with voting crimes; it says 21 actually cast ballots. - Oct. 24 — DOJ gave counties 48 hours to help check citizenship, asking for Social Security numbers. - Oct. 27 — Judge David Carter said he would appoint a special master to examine how DOJ built the list, AP reported. - Oct. 28 — Carter rejected DOJ's request, and DOJ said it would appeal. Butte County's clerk said DOJ's list for his county held 46 entries, not the 47 it claimed. - Oct. 29 — Carter named Daniel B. Garrie as the special master.

ContextThe 9th Circuit is the federal appeals court that hears cases from California. DOJ's record in a neighboring state weighed against it. In Nevada, DHS first flagged up to 15,903 registered voters as noncitizens, Judge Carter wrote. It later cut that to 6,218, then to 185. Nevada officials then confirmed that all 185 were citizens. The 20,000 names on DOJ's California list are a small slice of the state's 23 million voters, AP reported.

WASHINGTON EXAMINER8 sources

3usUpdatecontestedVoter-roll checks

Federal grand jury subpoenas at least 4 California election workers in noncitizen-voting probe; unions sue DOJ

Three went to Los Angeles County registrar staff, who are ordered to appear in court Wednesday, Nov. 4, the day after Election Day.

- Sept. 21 — Los Angeles County's registrar said federal grand jury subpoenas had sought voter records on dozens of people suspected of not being citizens, the Los Angeles Times reported. - Sept. 29 — The Times reviewed at least five such subpoenas, reaching back to 2020. - Oct. 15 — DOJ sued California and Los Angeles County to stop the count of mail ballots tied to about 20,000 people it calls likely noncitizens. - Oct. 22 — DOJ appealed to the Ninth Circuit before the trial judge had ruled. - Oct. 28 — Judge David Carter refused to set the ballots aside, and DOJ appealed again.

ContextThe unions' lawyers at Protect Democracy say a federal judge issued a temporary restraining order (a short-term court ban that holds until a fuller hearing) on Friday, Oct. 30. By their account, it bars DOJ and the Department of Homeland Security from threatening workers with prosecution for lawfully counting ballots. The terms they reproduced neither cancel the Nov. 4 appearances nor quash the subpoenas.

STATELINE5 sources

4usUpdateIran war

Qatari mediators return to Tehran to push an interim U.S.-Iran deal as Trump says the war will end 'soon'

Military sources say U.S. forces in the Middle East are being moved so Trump has the option to resume strikes after the Tuesday, Nov. 3 midterm election.

- Oct. 14 — A Saudi-led coalition bombed Houthi oil sites in Yemen after a Houthi strike on a Riyadh airport killed at least 13. - Oct. 15 — A Houthi strike damaged Aramco's Dhahran headquarters, and Trump said he was weighing joining the Saudi strikes. - Oct. 18 — The WSJ reported that Iran was giving the Houthis targeting and intelligence help. - Oct. 22–25 — The U.S. pulled non-emergency staff from Saudi Arabia, then cut embassy staff in Jordan, Lebanon, Qatar and the UAE over Iranian plots to kill Americans. - Oct. 26 — Trump called it “decision time”: either a deal or resumed attacks. A third U.S. carrier headed to the region. - Oct. 27 — Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani envoys met Iran's security chiefs in Tehran. - Oct. 28 — Qatar-led mediators told Iran that letting UN inspectors back into its nuclear sites could win it oil-sale waivers and some frozen funds, a regional source told Axios. U.S. and Israeli officials told Axios that any new offensive after the midterms would include a week of massive strikes.

ContextAn interim deal is a short-term agreement that stops the fighting while a full settlement is worked out. Two earlier truces in this war broke fast, per the Congressional Research Service: an April 8 ceasefire saw fighting again by May 4, and a deal signed June 17 gave way to U.S. strikes on June 26. The war shows up at the pump. Regular gasoline averaged $4.269 a gallon on Oct. 26, against $3.035 a year earlier, per the Energy Information Administration. Under Iran's constitution, a deal binds its military only once Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei approves it.

CNN6 sources

5usUpdateICE raids

Harris County grand jury indicts ICE officer Mario Morales on felony assault for driving his SUV into a fleeing man

Morales faces 2 to 20 years if convicted. The DA says the man he hit, 48, had no criminal record and no deportation order.

- Oct. 10 — An unmarked ICE SUV struck Miguel Parra Hernandez during a Houston-area chase for a different man, breaking his leg. - Oct. 14 — Harris County DA Sean Teare said video showed the officer hit him on purpose. ICE said he ran in front of the vehicle. - Oct. 15 — Prosecutors sought two men who rode in the ICE vehicle as witnesses. Agents had already moved both into detention.

ContextStates can charge federal officers. But a federal law, 28 U.S.C. § 1442, lets an officer move a state case to federal court. There he can claim Supremacy Clause immunity. That shield covers acts federal law authorized that were also "necessary and proper," said David Kwok of the University of Houston Law Center. He told Houston Public Media the "necessary and proper" test is "where most of the fight is going to be." The best-known test is Ruby Ridge. Idaho charged FBI sniper Lon Horiuchi with manslaughter in 1997. A federal judge threw the case out on immunity grounds in 1998. A full federal appeals court revived it in 2001, and a new county prosecutor then dropped it. The Houston Chronicle says this is at least the third time since 2025 that a federal agent has been charged over force used on duty. Sylvia Garcia (Rep-D Texas) said of the vote: "no one is above the law."

THE GUARDIAN10 sources

6not newslongformIran war

Speedboat crew damages a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz with limpet mines, in what the Financial Times calls the region's first such attack since 2019

Britain's maritime security office confirmed a small boat fixed two explosives above the waterline of the Panama-flagged Louise 1, but it named no attacker.

The current U.S. advisory tells commercial ships to keep at least 30 nautical miles from U.S. warships, so no escort sits alongside to stop an approaching boat.

ContextIn May 2019, UAE, Norwegian and Saudi investigators found four ships off the UAE were "highly likely" hit by limpet mines. The "first since 2019" label is the FT's own. As of 2021, the cause of a blast on the tanker Helios Ray was still under investigation, so the record since 2019 is not fully settled. In 2025 the strait carried about 20 million barrels of oil a day, about a quarter of the world's seaborne oil trade, plus 19% of global trade in liquefied natural gas (LNG), per the IEA.

FINANCIAL TIMES1 source

Saturday · The daily brief

Oct 312026

6 leads37 briefs29 min

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Executive summary6 stories

News news5

  1. Alaska's U.S. attorney confirms a criminal probe, open since July, into who put a second Dan Sullivan on the Senate ballotGrand jury subpoenas went to Mary Peltola's campaign and to Daniel J. Sullivan; Peltola says she "knew nothing" about the second candidate.
  2. 9th Circuit panel denies, 2-1, DOJ's emergency bid to make California set aside the ballots of about 20,000 people it calls likely noncitizensTrump appointee Mark Bennett and Biden appointee Gabriel Sanchez formed the majority; Trump appointee Patrick Bumatay dissented.
  3. Federal grand jury subpoenas at least 4 California election workers in noncitizen-voting probe; unions sue DOJThree went to Los Angeles County registrar staff, who are ordered to appear in court Wednesday, Nov. 4, the day after Election Day.
  4. Qatari mediators return to Tehran to push an interim U.S.-Iran deal as Trump says the war will end 'soon'Military sources say U.S. forces in the Middle East are being moved so Trump has the option to resume strikes after the Tuesday, Nov. 3 midterm election.
  5. Harris County grand jury indicts ICE officer Mario Morales on felony assault for driving his SUV into a fleeing manMorales faces 2 to 20 years if convicted. The DA says the man he hit, 48, had no criminal record and no deportation order.

Not news news1

  1. Speedboat crew damages a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz with limpet mines, in what the Financial Times calls the region's first such attack since 2019Britain's maritime security office confirmed a small boat fixed two explosives above the waterline of the Panama-flagged Louise 1, but it named no attacker.

News news5 stories

Ongoing8 earlier updates14 days

This story has run 9 times over 14 days, starting Oct 17.

  1. Sullivan breaks with Trump on Russian diesel deal in final toss-up Alaska Senate debate with Peltola
  2. UpdateJustice Department sues to block Alaska's Senate certification if Sen. Dan Sullivan loses, citing a second candidate named Daniel J. Sullivan
  3. UpdatePeltola's campaign and Senate Democrats file to defeat DOJ suit seeking to block Alaska's Senate certification if Sen. Sullivan loses
  4. UpdateBlanche says DOJ's Alaska suit is 'not saying don't certify'; the complaint asks a court to block certification if Sen. Dan Sullivan loses
  5. UpdateDaniel J. Sullivan, the second Sullivan on Alaska's ballot, calls DOJ's certification suit a 'gross misuse'
  6. UpdateAlaska's Republican-led state government joins Peltola in asking a judge to end DOJ's certification suit
  7. UpdateNew York Times reports Peltola's campaign helped recruit the second Dan Sullivan; Trump calls for prosecution and DOJ seeks fast discovery
  8. UpdateAlaska's governor orders a state criminal probe and DOJ subpoenas Democrats over the second Dan Sullivan
  9. UpdateAlaska's U.S. attorney confirms a criminal probe, open since July, into who put a second Dan Sullivan on the Senate ballot — this issue
NBC NEWSUpdateAlaska Senate race

Alaska's U.S. attorney confirms a criminal probe, open since July, into who put a second Dan Sullivan on the Senate ballot

Grand jury subpoenas went to Mary Peltola's campaign and to Daniel J. Sullivan; Peltola says she "knew nothing" about the second candidate.

Michael Heyman, the U.S. attorney for Alaska, confirmed a criminal investigation into how a second Dan Sullivan got onto the Senate ballot. The investigation opened in July. Heyman said a New York Times report tying the campaign of Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola to the recruitment brought a "significant surge of law enforcement assets" to the state. A civil investigation is running alongside it.

The subpoenas. Grand jury subpoenas seeking testimony or documents went to Peltola's campaign offices and to Daniel J. Sullivan's. NBC News and The Hill count at least 36 subpoenas and preservation requests. PBS NewsHour says the number is unclear.

The ballots. In its civil suit, DOJ asked a federal judge to have state officials preserve and keep apart every ballot that ranks Daniel J. Sullivan, so it can check for voter confusion. The suit also seeks to block certification (the state's official sign-off on the result) if the incumbent, Dan Sullivan (Sen-R Alaska), loses. Heyman said: "We're not escalating anything except to the extent that a new article came out."

The denials. Peltola said: "I knew nothing about any other candidate on the ballot except for me and the incumbent... I am not interested in tricking voters." Daniel J. Sullivan and the DSCC (Senate Democrats' campaign arm) also deny involvement. Asked in June about his contact with Peltola's campaign, Daniel J. Sullivan said: "Zero, none, zilch."

What next. DOJ asked for a ruling on the ballot request by Monday, Nov. 2, the day before Election Day (Tuesday, Nov. 3).

Catch upwhat happened before · 8 earlier issues
  • Oct. 15 — Sen. Dan Sullivan and Mary Peltola met in their final debate in a toss-up race.
  • Oct. 22 — DOJ sued to block certification if Sullivan loses, citing a second candidate, retired teacher Daniel J. Sullivan; Trump later said, "I'm the one that said do it."
  • Oct. 24–26 — Peltola and Senate Democrats moved to kill the suit, which asks for a recount as if every Daniel J. Sullivan vote went to the incumbent; DOJ's Todd Blanche said it was "not saying don't certify."
  • Oct. 26–27 — Daniel J. Sullivan called the suit a "gross misuse"; Alaska's Republican-led state government joined the bid to end it.
  • Oct. 28 — The New York Times reported Peltola's campaign helped recruit Daniel J. Sullivan; Trump urged prosecution. The Times' key source, fired campaign manager Elisa Rios, later tried to retract.
  • Oct. 29 — Gov. Mike Dunleavy ordered a state criminal probe, and DOJ subpoenaed Democrats.
7 earlier issues
Why a 4% candidate could decide this raceData for Progress poll, Oct. 8–16, 694 likely voters (±4): Peltola 47%, Sullivan 44%, Daniel J.3 details
  • Data for Progress poll, Oct. 8–16, 694 likely voters (±4): Peltola 47%, Sullivan 44%, Daniel J. Sullivan 4% on first choices
  • Same poll after ranked-choice transfers: Peltola 51%, Sullivan 49%
  • Same poll, if every exhausted Daniel J. Sullivan ballot went to the incumbent: 50%–50%

Red take

Every ballot ranking Daniel J. Sullivan should be kept separate by Monday: the criminal probe into who recruited him began in July, months before the New York Times tied the campaign of Mary Peltola, the Democratic challenger, to it. Michael Heyman, Alaska's U.S. attorney, already has grand jury subpoenas out. Keeping those ballots apart changes no one's vote; mixing them in Tuesday could erase the clearest evidence of whether Alaskans were misled.

Blue take

'I'm the one that said do it,' President Trump said of the Justice Department's lawsuit, and the judge should throw it out. It seeks to block certification if Sen. Dan Sullivan, the Republican incumbent, loses, and a recount as if every vote for retired teacher Daniel J. Sullivan were his; Alaska's Republican-led state government wants it ended. Kept alive, it hangs over any win by Mary Peltola, the Democratic challenger.

Ongoing8 earlier updates16 days

This story has run 9 times over 16 days, starting Oct 15.

  1. Justice Department orders California to check citizenship of an undisclosed list of mail voters and hold their ballots by noon Thursday, Oct. 15
  2. UpdateJustice Department sues California and Los Angeles County to hold uncounted the mail ballots of about 20,000 people it calls likely noncitizens
  3. UpdateDOJ warns California officials who count suspected noncitizens' ballots they risk federal prosecution
  4. UpdateTrump says Los Angeles election officials 'will all go to jail' if they count the mail ballots of 20,000 people DHS flagged as likely noncitizens
  5. UpdateJustice Department gives California counties 48 hours to help check the citizenship of roughly 20,000 listed voters and asks them to set aside those mail ballots
  6. Update9th Circuit panel of two Trump appointees and one Biden appointee doubts it can order California to set aside mail ballots of about 20,000 people DOJ calls likely noncitizens
  7. Update9th Circuit panel dismisses, 2-1, DOJ's emergency appeal to make California set aside mail ballots of 20,000-plus listed voters
  8. UpdateJudge David Carter says he will appoint a special master to examine how DOJ built its list of 20,000 California voters it calls likely noncitizens
  9. Update9th Circuit panel denies, 2-1, DOJ's emergency bid to make California set aside the ballots of about 20,000 people it calls likely noncitizens — this issue
WASHINGTON EXAMINERUpdate

9th Circuit panel denies, 2-1, DOJ's emergency bid to make California set aside the ballots of about 20,000 people it calls likely noncitizens

Trump appointee Mark Bennett and Biden appointee Gabriel Sanchez formed the majority; Trump appointee Patrick Bumatay dissented.

A federal appeals panel refused, for the second time in a week, to order California to pull aside mail ballots tied to the Justice Department's list of about 20,000 suspected noncitizens. The first refusal came Monday, Oct. 26.

The majority. In a 41-page decision, the two judges agreed with the trial judge that DOJ's list is not credible and that setting the ballots aside could keep eligible voters' ballots from counting. They called the request "simple only in the abstract": hundreds of thousands of ballots are already processed and stripped of names, so they cannot be matched back to voters.

The dissent. Bumatay wrote: "California decided long ago that aliens can't vote in its elections. Today, the federal government merely seeks to safeguard that decision. We should have let them try."

Still open. DOJ can now ask the Supreme Court to step in before the Tuesday, Nov. 3 election.

Catch upwhat happened before · 8 earlier issues
  • Oct. 15 — DOJ sued California and Los Angeles County to stop the count of mail ballots tied to a DHS list of suspected noncitizens.
  • Oct. 16–17 — DOJ warned officials who count those ballots could be prosecuted as "aiders and abettors"; Trump said L.A. officials "will all go to jail."
  • Oct. 19 — DOJ charged 28 green-card holders from the list with voting crimes; it says 21 actually cast ballots.
  • Oct. 24 — DOJ gave counties 48 hours to help check citizenship, asking for Social Security numbers.
  • Oct. 27 — Judge David Carter said he would appoint a special master to examine how DOJ built the list, AP reported.
  • Oct. 28 — Carter rejected DOJ's request, and DOJ said it would appeal. Butte County's clerk said DOJ's list for his county held 46 entries, not the 47 it claimed.
  • Oct. 29 — Carter named Daniel B. Garrie as the special master.
7 earlier issues
STATELINEUpdateVoter-roll checks

Federal grand jury subpoenas at least 4 California election workers in noncitizen-voting probe; unions sue DOJ

Three went to Los Angeles County registrar staff, who are ordered to appear in court Wednesday, Nov. 4, the day after Election Day.

A federal criminal grand jury (a panel of citizens that prosecutors use to gather evidence before deciding on charges) has subpoenaed at least four California election workers in a Justice Department probe of noncitizen voting. This criminal track ran alongside DOJ's civil fight over California mail ballots. The first of these subpoenas is dated Oct. 21, a day before DOJ took that fight to the Ninth Circuit appeals court.

The subpoenas. Los Angeles County's registrar office got two on Oct. 21 and one on Oct. 24. An Orange County election official got a similar one. They demand records on how the offices screen for noncitizen voting. A DOJ letter says they belong to a criminal investigation run by Homeland Security Investigations, the criminal arm of the immigration agency. The Nov. 4 court date applies to the Los Angeles staff. The reporting does not say whether the Orange County official must appear that day.

DOJ's position. Spokeswoman Kiersten Pels said "all agree that noncitizen voting is properly addressed through criminal law" and that receiving a subpoena does not make someone a target.

The pushback. Labor unions representing election workers have sued the Justice Department. David Becker, a former DOJ Voting Section lawyer: "The mask is off now. This is all a political effort at this point."

How we got herethe story so far
  • Sept. 21 — Los Angeles County's registrar said federal grand jury subpoenas had sought voter records on dozens of people suspected of not being citizens, the Los Angeles Times reported.
  • Sept. 29 — The Times reviewed at least five such subpoenas, reaching back to 2020.
  • Oct. 15 — DOJ sued California and Los Angeles County to stop the count of mail ballots tied to about 20,000 people it calls likely noncitizens.
  • Oct. 22 — DOJ appealed to the Ninth Circuit before the trial judge had ruled.
  • Oct. 28 — Judge David Carter refused to set the ballots aside, and DOJ appealed again.
What the subpoenas demand from the two countiesOrange County: unredacted voter records for 60 people, up from 20 people in September subpoenas (per CalMatters)3 details
  • Orange County: unredacted voter records for 60 people, up from 20 people in September subpoenas (per CalMatters)
  • Three names appear on both the September list and the new one
  • Los Angeles: correspondence and internal messages about federal noncitizen-voting demands, screening methods and steps to keep unlawful votes from being counted

Red take

Subpoenaing Orange County for the records of 60 specific voters is how a noncitizen-voting charge should be tested: before a grand jury, case by case, not by tossing ballots wholesale. Kiersten Pels, the Justice Department spokeswoman, says a subpoena makes no one a target, and these ask the counties how they screen, not who to blame. Quash them, and the county's own word becomes the only check on whether noncitizens voted.

Blue take

The Justice Department, still fighting in civil court to get California mail ballots set aside, is also using a grand jury to lean on the people counting them. Los Angeles registrar staff must appear Nov. 4, the day after Election Day, before an inquiry run by the immigration agency's criminal arm; an Oct. 30 restraining order leaves that date standing. Let it hold, and clerks learn that counting a contested ballot can bring them before prosecutors.

Ongoing29 earlier updates52 days

This story has run 30 times over 52 days, starting Sep 9.

  1. Houthi missiles and drones hit 4 Saudi cities, wounding 73 and halting Aramco's 400,000-barrel-a-day Jazan refinery
  2. UpdateBrent oil exceeds $100 a barrel; US diesel reaches $5.94 a gallon
  3. Houthis capture Yemen's Mokha from Saudi-backed forces 46 miles from Bab el-Mandeb
  4. UpdateHouthi forces captured Mokha and Perim island in the 28-kilometer Bab el-Mandeb strait.
  5. UpdateA day after the Bab el-Mandeb capture, maritime monitors have recorded no new transit halts
  6. UpdateSaudi Arabia shuts Hormuz-bypass pipeline, oil rises more than $3 with 4% of supply at risk
  7. UpdateHouthis seize two more Red Sea islands as Saudi pipeline faces 3-to-5-week outage
  8. UpdateSaudi Arabia suspends loadings at its last open oil terminal; September cargoes cancelled
  9. Attacks on Saudi export pipeline push WTI crude to $107.02 a barrel, a 30-day high
  10. UpdateHouthi missiles hit Riyadh, burning a fuel depot near King Khalid airport
  11. UpdateSaudi Arabia says it intercepted a Houthi missile aimed at Riyadh
  12. UpdateTrump declined a prepared U.S. air campaign against the Houthis, giving Saudi Arabia intelligence and targeting data instead
  13. UpdateSaudi Arabia tested its shut east-west pipeline for a restart as oil fell below $98
  14. Chris Murphy (Sen-D Connecticut) says Pentagon is hiding Iran war damage and a deal isn't imminent
  15. UpdateStrike on Riyadh airport kills 12, including an American; Trump says the U.S. "may" join Saudi strikes on the Houthis
  16. UpdateRiyadh airport hit again Sunday, Oct. 11, killing one; Saturday's strike toll rises to at least 13, including an American
  17. UpdateSaudi Arabia investigates why its air defenses failed to stop the Houthi strike that killed at least 13 at Riyadh's airport
  18. UpdateSaudi-led coalition bombs Houthi oil facilities and a fuel depot in Yemen after a Riyadh airport strike killed at least 13
  19. Houthi strike damages 3 floors of Aramco's Dhahran headquarters, including executive offices; no casualties
  20. Brent crude touches $110 a barrel, its first time there since May 20, after Saudi-led forces intercept missiles aimed at energy hubs
  21. Iran is giving the Houthis targeting and intelligence help for their strikes on Saudi Arabia, WSJ reports
  22. Judge jails ex-OpenAI engineer accused of bugging executives; prosecutors say Saudi official flew his family out
  23. UpdateBrent crude tops $111 a barrel, its highest since May, after Iran and the Houthis claim attacks on Gulf ships and Saudi oil sites
  24. UpdateState Department orders non-emergency U.S. staff and families out of Saudi Arabia after Houthi attacks on airports and oil sites
  25. Brent crude hits $116-117 a barrel Friday, Oct. 23, on fears the Iran war escalates again
  26. UpdateU.S. cuts staff at embassies in Jordan, Lebanon, Qatar and the UAE after intelligence chief says Iranian plots to kill Americans are at 'advanced stages'
  27. UpdateTrump says it's 'decision time' on Iran: a deal, or resumed attacks to 'finish it off'
  28. Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani envoys meet Iran's security chiefs in Tehran to push for a U.S.-Iran deal
  29. Qatar-led mediators urge Iran to admit UN inspectors for partial U.S. sanctions relief; U.S. and Israeli officials expect a week of strikes after the midterms without a deal
  30. UpdateQatari mediators return to Tehran to push an interim U.S.-Iran deal as Trump says the war will end 'soon' — this issue
CNNUpdateIran war

Qatari mediators return to Tehran to push an interim U.S.-Iran deal as Trump says the war will end 'soon'

Military sources say U.S. forces in the Middle East are being moved so Trump has the option to resume strikes after the Tuesday, Nov. 3 midterm election.

Qatari mediators are back in Tehran to push for an interim deal between the United States and Iran, a short-term agreement meant to stop a new round of war. Trump said on Oct. 30 that the war would end "soon." At the same time, Fox News, CNN and The Washington Post report that U.S. forces in the Middle East are being moved so Trump can restart strikes.

Inside the GOP. Vice President JD Vance promised Trump "is not going to let Iran become a forever war." Pat Harrigan (Rep-R North Carolina) said "continuing to do just enough not to lose, but not enough to win, is not OK." He added that Trump must bring in Congress if fighting resumes.

What next. The midterm election is Tuesday, Nov. 3. The strike option being built is for the days after it.

Catch upwhat happened before · 29 earlier issues
  • Oct. 14 — A Saudi-led coalition bombed Houthi oil sites in Yemen after a Houthi strike on a Riyadh airport killed at least 13.
  • Oct. 15 — A Houthi strike damaged Aramco's Dhahran headquarters, and Trump said he was weighing joining the Saudi strikes.
  • Oct. 18 — The WSJ reported that Iran was giving the Houthis targeting and intelligence help.
  • Oct. 22–25 — The U.S. pulled non-emergency staff from Saudi Arabia, then cut embassy staff in Jordan, Lebanon, Qatar and the UAE over Iranian plots to kill Americans.
  • Oct. 26 — Trump called it “decision time”: either a deal or resumed attacks. A third U.S. carrier headed to the region.
  • Oct. 27 — Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani envoys met Iran's security chiefs in Tehran.
  • Oct. 28 — Qatar-led mediators told Iran that letting UN inspectors back into its nuclear sites could win it oil-sale waivers and some frozen funds, a regional source told Axios. U.S. and Israeli officials told Axios that any new offensive after the midterms would include a week of massive strikes.
28 earlier issues
Where the two sides clash on the interim dealIran's demand: the U.S. ends its blockade of Iranian ports and lifts oil-export sanctions first2 details
  • Iran's demand: the U.S. ends its blockade of Iranian ports and lifts oil-export sanctions first
  • An Iranian official rejected Qatar's ideas, while Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi pushed Iran's own seven-day plan, which Trump had already rejected
Ongoing3 earlier updates19 days

This story has run 4 times over 19 days, starting Oct 12.

  1. ICE vehicle hit a fleeing man, breaking his leg, in a Houston-area raid targeting another man
  2. UpdateHouston DA says video shows ICE officer ran a man over on purpose, weighs assault charge
  3. ICE deported a Houston-area man to Ghana, which put him on a flight to Mali, the country a U.S. judge barred his removal to in 2012
  4. UpdateHarris County grand jury indicts ICE officer Mario Morales on felony assault for driving his SUV into a fleeing man — this issue
THE GUARDIANUpdateICE raids

Harris County grand jury indicts ICE officer Mario Morales on felony assault for driving his SUV into a fleeing man

Morales faces 2 to 20 years if convicted. The DA says the man he hit, 48, had no criminal record and no deportation order.

A Harris County grand jury indicted ICE officer Mario Alberto Morales, 33, on a second-degree felony charge of aggravated assault with a deadly weapon. The weapon is the vehicle. Prosecutors say he deliberately drove his unmarked SUV into Miguel Parra Hernandez during a pursuit on Oct. 10, 2026. The crash broke his leg in several places and injured his hip. If convicted, Morales faces 2 to 20 years in prison. Axios and the Washington Examiner describe it as the first indictment of an ICE officer in Texas.

The target. ICE says it was chasing Jose Mendoza-Cervantes. His daughter identified ICE's photo as her father and says he died in 2017, about nine years before the chase. Parra Hernandez, the man actually hit, is 48. Harris County District Attorney Sean Teare says he has no criminal record, had no deportation order and has lived in the U.S. without legal status for more than 30 years.

The response. ICE called the case "nothing more than a political stunt by Houston sanctuary politicians" and said the claim that the strike was intentional is "RECKLESS and FALSE." It says local prosecutors have no authority over federal officers. Teare: "An ICE badge does not give you free rein to injure, kill, or violate the constitutional rights of anyone."

Still open. ICE's position sets up a fight over which court tries Morales, if any.

Catch upwhat happened before · 3 earlier issues
  • Oct. 10 — An unmarked ICE SUV struck Miguel Parra Hernandez during a Houston-area chase for a different man, breaking his leg.
  • Oct. 14 — Harris County DA Sean Teare said video showed the officer hit him on purpose. ICE said he ran in front of the vehicle.
  • Oct. 15 — Prosecutors sought two men who rode in the ICE vehicle as witnesses. Agents had already moved both into detention.
2 earlier issues
What the released video shows, and where it doesn'tSurveillance video shows the SUV crossing a yellow median and swerving left toward Parra Hernandez's running path, per NBC.3 details
  • Surveillance video shows the SUV crossing a yellow median and swerving left toward Parra Hernandez's running path, per NBC.
  • A truck in the foreground blocks the moment of contact; when it moves, a man is on the pavement behind the SUV.
  • Body-camera footage shows sharp steering, a jolt, and Parra Hernandez on the ground holding his leg, per PBS/AP.

Quick bites15

Courts3 bites

  1. Judge opens misconduct inquiry into whether DOJ and Interior officials misled her about D.C. golf course

    AXIOSUpdate

    U.S. District Judge Ana Reyes opened a formal inquiry into Justice and Interior lawyers and officials. She wants to know if they misled her court. They denied a closure plan that Trump was announcing in public. She plans to name a special master to help her check for false statements and ethics breaches. DOJ has 5 business days to object.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 3 earlier issues
    • Oct. 9–10 — The government gave the court notice at 4:55 p.m. on Friday, Oct. 9, the start of the Columbus Day weekend. The Park Service cut nearly 430 trees at East Potomac Golf Links on Oct. 10 before Judge Ana Reyes halted it.
    • Oct. 19 — Trump announced on Truth Social that the course would close Nov. 15 for 15 months; the same day, Associate AG Stanley Woodward told the court there was "no plan to close the course."
    • Oct. 26 — Reyes extended her block on tree cutting and closures, writing: "Rarely, if ever, has the United States Department of Justice urged a federal court not to believe the sitting President."
    • Oct. 28 — DOJ acknowledged to the court that Trump had directed the closure.
    2 earlier issues
    Where it standsReyes's injunction requires 10 business days' notice before the government closes the 106-year-old public course or makes…2 details
    • Reyes's injunction requires 10 business days' notice before the government closes the 106-year-old public course or makes irreversible changes.
    • DOJ spokesperson: "The Department of Justice will not be deterred from executing on the President's agenda."
    Ongoing3

    This story has run 4 times over 18 days, starting Oct 13.

    1. Judge extends halt on tree removal after Park Service cut about 430 trees at D.C. golf course
    2. UpdateTrump says D.C.'s East Potomac golf course closes Nov. 15 for 15 months, despite court halt
    3. UpdateDOJ tells judge East Potomac golf course won't close, contradicting Trump's Nov. 15 date
    4. UpdateJudge opens misconduct inquiry into whether DOJ and Interior officials misled her about D.C. golf course — this issue

  2. DOJ tells judge it is seeking a grand jury indictment of Comey and may add charges

    WASHINGTON POSTUpdateCases against critics

    Prosecutors say they are working to get a grand jury indictment of James Comey. They may also bring more charges. Judge Trevor McFadden, a Trump appointee, asked why he should rule on Comey's time-limit challenge "if in two weeks we could get an indictment." He warned it could be "a great exercise in futility."

    Catch upwhat happened before · 1 earlier issue

    On Oct. 5, DOJ charged Comey under seal. It used a prosecutor's filing, not a grand jury. The date was exactly 10 years after the 2016 news story at the center of the case. On Oct. 28, DOJ told the court that filing beat the 10-year deadline. Comey's lawyers said only a grand jury indictment could stop the clock. Trump called Comey a "dirty cop."

    • Cases DOJ has brought against Comey: 3 in 13 months
    • The current charge was filed under seal on Oct. 5, without a grand jury, exactly 10 years after the Oct. 5, 2016 story
    • The charge says Comey directed FBI staff in 2016 to correct a Reuters story by speaking to a New York Times reporter
    Ongoing1

    This story has run 2 times over 4 days, starting Oct 27.

    1. Justice Department charges James Comey a third time, alleging he leaked national defense information to the New York Times in 2016
    2. UpdateDOJ tells judge it is seeking a grand jury indictment of Comey and may add charges — this issue

  3. Judge orders government to pull three taxpayer-funded pro-Trump ads, including '$5,000 to Americans'

    PBS NEWSHOURTaxpayer-funded ads

    Judge Jennifer Rochon widened her earlier order: the ads must now come off government websites and social media. She also canceled any plans to air them through authorized third parties, including Trump's super PAC MAGA Inc., AP reported. But she refused to block at least 10 more ads that Common Cause and other groups wanted pulled, for now. She said she could restore ads or ban more after hearing further evidence.

    Which ads, and the responseAds pulled: '$5,000 to Americans,' which touts Trump's claim that every American gets $5,000 if Republicans keep Congress, plus…3 details
    • Ads pulled: '$5,000 to Americans,' which touts Trump's claim that every American gets $5,000 if Republicans keep Congress, plus 'Every Democrat Voted Against No Tax on Tips' and 'Cost of Socialism'
    • Plaintiffs, including Common Cause, challenged at least 13 ads; the judge pulled 3 of them
    • White House spokesperson Lauren Bis called it a 'lawless order' from a 'Biden-appointed activist judge'
Russia and Ukraine4 bites

  1. State Department approves $2.1 billion sale of 500 Patriot interceptors to Ukraine, paid for by allies

    NBC NEWSRussia-Ukraine war

    Canada, Germany and Norway are paying through the JUMPSTART program, along with an EU loan, with no U.S. funds; the PAC-3s are new Lockheed Martin builds, so delivery is unlikely to be fast.

    • Zelensky said Ukraine waited almost 1 month for U.S. sign-off (BBC).
    • The approval came days after Trump said Ukraine needs a new leader (NBC).
    • Zelensky on Meet the Press: there is "always a big deficit with Patriot missiles and other kind of air defense."
    Ongoing11

    This story has run 12 times over 16 days, starting Oct 15.

    1. UpdateUkraine's military Starshield satellite terminals stop working above 160 km/h; Musk says the U.S. military and Trump set the limit
    2. UpdateTwo U.S. officials and a Western official say the order to cap Ukraine's Starshield terminals came from the White House
    3. UpdateTrump denies ordering speed caps on Ukraine's Starshield terminals; nine senators ask Pentagon watchdog who did
    4. UpdateZelensky says Ukrainian road tests show Starlink and Starshield cut out above 161 km/h only inside Ukraine
    5. UpdateBessent declines three times to say whether Ukraine is a U.S. ally; Zelensky says backing Putin would be a 'historic mistake'
    6. UpdateTrump administration has not approved Patriot interceptor transfers to Ukraine, including from European allies' stocks
    7. UpdateMusk personally ordered last week's slowdown of Ukraine's Starshield military satellite service, WSJ reports
    8. UpdateTrump says Musk restored Ukraine's Starlink but won't say whether he called him
    9. UpdateZelenskyy says Ukraine's Starlink and Starshield service is still slowed, a day after Trump said Musk restored it
    10. UpdateUkraine says Starlink and Starshield work again above 400 km/h; Musk says Kyiv broke the terms with offensive drone strikes
    11. UpdateKyiv says Musk's Starlink 'loophole' never existed; Schiff wants Hegseth to testify
    12. State Department approves $2.1 billion sale of 500 Patriot interceptors to Ukraine, paid for by allies — this issue

  2. Evacuations from Russian-held Oleshky begin with 25 buses; several hundred residents stay

    CBS NEWSUpdate

    Ukrainian and Russian teams entered Oleshky on Friday, Oct. 30, with 25 buses seating 750, Ukraine's human rights ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said. Evacuees bound for Ukraine must route through Russia and Belarus. Hundreds of the roughly 2,000 residents chose to stay, the BBC reports. Neither side said how many left, AFP reported.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 2 earlier issues

    On Oct. 23 the White House said Melania Trump had brokered a local Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in Russian-held Oleshky for aid and evacuations. It took effect Oct. 27 and runs until 22:59 Kyiv time on Sunday, Nov. 1, Ukrainian lawmaker David Arakhamia said; by Oct. 28 officials said it had widened across Kherson region.

    1 earlier issue
    The convoy and the routeRoute home: a flight from Anapa, Russia, to Gomel, Belarus, then by road into Ukraine's Chernihiv region, though Ukrainian-held…3 details
    • Route home: a flight from Anapa, Russia, to Gomel, Belarus, then by road into Ukraine's Chernihiv region, though Ukrainian-held land is 5 km away.
    • More than 500 residents are expected to go to Ukraine, per the FT; a figure of 527 was announced by PM Koretsky, then retracted.
    • Two people were killed while demining the routes into the city, per PBS; the town had more than 20,000 people before the invasion.
    Ongoing2

    This story has run 3 times over 7 days, starting Oct 24.

    1. White House says Melania Trump brokered a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in occupied Oleshky for aid and evacuations
    2. Truce holds in occupied Oleshky and widens across Kherson region, officials say
    3. UpdateEvacuations from Russian-held Oleshky begin with 25 buses; several hundred residents stay — this issue

  3. U.S. cancels G20 foreign ministers' group photo after Europeans refuse to pose with Lavrov

    BBC NEWS

    Ukraine was not invited to Secretary of State Marco Rubio's two-day meeting in Atlanta. It has been asked to similar meetings in recent years. The UK was among the delegations that would not stand with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

    On the recordU.S. official: "Rather than allow a ceremonial photo opportunity to become a diplomatic distraction, the US decided to forgo the…2 details
    • U.S. official: "Rather than allow a ceremonial photo opportunity to become a diplomatic distraction, the US decided to forgo the photo."
    • Rubio opened the meeting telling ministers it was "a moment of choosing."

  4. Trump meets freed American Stephen Hubbard, says no prisoner swap and ties release to sanctions he skipped

    THE GUARDIAN

    Trump said no one was released in exchange for Hubbard. On not imposing the Russia sanctions Congress passed while talks went on, he said: "If I would have done that, you would not have Mr. Hubbard coming back."

    • Held more than 4 years in Russia on mercenary charges, which his lawyers deny.
    • Freed Oct. 21; met Trump in the Oval Office Oct. 30.
    • Hubbard said he knew he was free "only when they started giving me new clothes and leading me to the exit of the prison."
The Iran war's economics2 bites

  1. Exxon's Q3 profit doubles to $15.4 billion; Chevron earns $9.9 billion on Iran war fuel prices

    NBC NEWSBoulder climate case

    Diesel above $6.30 a gallon and Brent near $118 drove the gains. In August, Trump said the companies were "making too much money." At an Oct. 24 rally, he said, "We're making a freaking fortune."

    • Chevron's profit rose more than 180% from a year earlier (Washington Examiner says nearly 200%).
    • Average regular gasoline is up 40% since the war began; Brent's wartime peak was $126.
    • Shares are up 52% (Exxon) and 50% (Chevron) this year.

  2. Bessent cites Iran's 90% inflation to urge Trump to extend sanctions instead of resuming combat

    AXIOSInflation and rates

    Iran's inflation is now about 90%, up from about 35% in early 2025, says a report on "Operation Economic Outcast," launched at the end of August. Iran's own Statistical Center put September's annual rate at 89.8%, Iran International reports. Still, the report does not argue the regime is near collapse.

    The numbersThe rial has lost about 25% of its value since the campaign began in August, per Axios.3 details
    • The rial has lost about 25% of its value since the campaign began in August, per Axios.
    • The report says the unofficial exchange rate hit a record low of 2.687 million rials per dollar in October, from about 2.02 million when the campaign began.
    • A U.S. official told Axios that Bessent says the campaign "could further destabilize the regime and push the Supreme Leader to agree to a deal."
Also tonight2 bites

  1. US growth was 2.2% in fiscal 2026, just under CBO's 2.3% forecast, budget watchdog says

    CRFBUpdate

    The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a budget watchdog, ran the fiscal-year math in a note dated Oct. 30. Fiscal 2026 ended Sept. 30. CRFB says 3.4% growth, if sustained for a decade, could hold federal debt near today's 100% of GDP. But growth has not reached 3% two years in a row in the past two decades, it adds. CRFB calls 2.2% healthy for an aging country, but far short of fixing the debt without reforms.

    On Thursday, Oct. 29, the Commerce Department's advance estimate put third-quarter growth at a 3.4% annual pace. The same day, the PCE price index, the inflation gauge the Fed targets, showed prices up 3.6% in the year to September, from 3.4% in August.

    The numbers, and a cautionFiscal 2026 GDP growth: 2.2%, vs. CBO's February forecast of 2.3%, per CRFB3 details
    • Fiscal 2026 GDP growth: 2.2%, vs. CBO's February forecast of 2.3%, per CRFB
    • Federal debt: about 100% of GDP, per CRFB
    • Economist Justin Wolfers, on X: "Yesterday's GDP report is unusually hard to read. It's a grab bag of facts for both sides."

  2. Carney says Canada will finish talks next June to become the EU's first 'associate member'

    PBS NEWSHOURCanada trade war

    Prime Minister Mark Carney said he expects to conclude the talks at a meeting of European leaders next June, per PBS NewsHour. He called the goal 'the deepest possible partnership, short of accession.' He spoke at the end of a two-day summit in Montreal. There, he and EU leaders launched an 'Alliance for the Future' as Canada tries to rely less on the U.S. The U.S. bought 71.7% of Canada's merchandise exports in 2025.

    What the summit actually producedBoth sides concluded substantive talks on a digital trade agreement.3 details
    • Both sides concluded substantive talks on a digital trade agreement.
    • Canada and the European Investment Bank concluded talks on a deal to draw European investment into Canadian critical minerals.
    • Canadian ministers and European commissioners will meet in March to push the talks forward.
Elections4 bites

  1. More than 48.5 million Americans have voted early, passing the 2022 midterm early-vote record four days before Election Day

    BLOOMBERGUpdate

    The University of Florida Election Lab counted 48.5 million early votes by Friday afternoon, Oct. 30. The lab counts 45.9 million early votes in all of the 2022 midterm. In states that report party registration, registered Democrats cast about 44% of early ballots and Republicans 31%, AFP reported from the lab's data. Registration shows who voted, not how they voted.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 3 earlier issues
    • Sep. 27 — Cook Political Report projected Republicans would lose the House and called a Democratic Senate majority no longer a long shot.
    • Sep. 30 — Republicans shifted Senate money to defend Texas and sent Trump to Ohio as Georgia and North Carolina slipped.
    • Oct. 7 — Cook moved Kansas to toss-up and projected Democrats gaining 2 to 6 Senate seats; they need 4 for a majority.
    • Oct. 10 — Senate Majority PAC opened a $5 million Kansas buy against Roger Marshall; the GOP's Senate Leadership Fund had booked over $10 million.
    • Oct. 24 — Over 20 million had voted early, registered Democrats casting 45% of returned ballots to Republicans' 30%; mail ballot requests topped 57 million.
    • Oct. 29 — CNN/SSRS polls of likely voters, taken Oct. 20–27, showed Democrats up 7 in Michigan and 6 in Texas and up 49% to 45% in Maine and Kansas, inside those polls' 4.5-point margins of error.
    2 earlier issues
    Where turnout is up most vs. 2022, per an AP analysisTexas: 6.3 million early votes as of Wednesday, Oct. 28, up 50% from 4.2 million at the same point in 20223 details
    • Texas: 6.3 million early votes as of Wednesday, Oct. 28, up 50% from 4.2 million at the same point in 2022
    • South Carolina: early voting up 83% over the same point in 2022
    • Maine, Michigan, North Carolina and Kansas: each up more than 30%
    Ongoing3

    This story has run 4 times over 6 days, starting Oct 25.

    1. UpdateNorth Carolina early ballots top 1.2 million, 37% above the same point in 2022
    2. UpdateOver 39 million have voted early; Texas early voters model 51% Democratic, 45% Republican
    3. UpdateOver 43 million have voted early; Democrats cast 44% of party-registration ballots to Republicans' 31.2%
    4. UpdateMore than 48.5 million Americans have voted early, passing the 2022 midterm early-vote record four days before Election Day — this issue

  2. Trump puts in-person Kansas and Iowa rallies back on the schedule for Sunday, Nov. 1, a day after canceling them

    POLITICOUpdate

    Trump will now hold back-to-back in-person rallies in Dubuque, Iowa, and Salina, Kansas, on Sunday, Nov. 1, the RNC confirmed. His canceled Kansas rally for Roger Marshall (Sen-R Kansas) had been set for Saturday, Oct. 31. The new rally is a day later. Trump said friends in both states called him. They told him, "if you can go, you would be better than a telerally," per PBS NewsHour.

    On Oct. 29 the White House confirmed, without giving a reason, that Trump would swap his Oct. 31 Kansas rally for Roger Marshall (Sen-R Kansas) for a tele-rally. The RNC, which also dropped an Iowa rally, cited Republicans' "strong position" in both states.

  3. Haley Stevens will campaign with Abdul El-Sayed Sunday, Nov. 1, their first joint event since August, but still wants an apology

    ABC NEWSMichigan Senate race

    Haley Stevens (Rep-D Michigan) and Abdul El-Sayed will join Jim Clyburn (Rep-D South Carolina) at a Detroit church Sunday, Nov. 1. It is their first joint event since a unity breakfast on Aug. 6. In a statement on Friday, Oct. 30, Stevens said she expects an apology. She wants one for what she calls his argument that Israel is why Michigan cannot afford schools, health care and child care.

    The bad bloodEl-Sayed narrowly beat Stevens in the Aug. 4 primary; the breakfast came two days later.4 details
    • El-Sayed narrowly beat Stevens in the Aug. 4 primary; the breakfast came two days later.
    • Ads attacking El-Sayed in the primary cost nearly $60 million, including $30 million from AIPAC.
    • Stevens's fiancé, Jason Turkish, says he will vote for Republican Mike Rogers.
    • Nancy Pelosi called El-Sayed's positions on Israel 'wrong'; El-Sayed says 'nobody cares' about party infighting when the cost of living is so high, per ABC News.

  4. Israel's final count leaves no bloc near a majority: Netanyahu's 53, opposition 48, Arab-led parties 19

    NBC NEWS

    The results are due to be certified and submitted to President Isaac Herzog on Wednesday, Nov. 4, per NBC News. Herzog then picks someone to try to form a government. Weeks of bargaining could end in a new election early next year if no one reaches 61.

    After the countArab-led parties' 19 seats are a historic showing, per NBC News.3 details
    • Arab-led parties' 19 seats are a historic showing, per NBC News.
    • Netanyahu and Likud amplified unsubstantiated claims that Arab-led parties 'stole' the election. The elections committee called claims of systematic violations 'baseless.'
    • Centrist opposition figure Yair Lapid on X: 'Now comes the truly hard part.' He added: 'If you want to know if something's happening behind the silence you're hearing now, the answer is yes.'

Elections22 races

The midterms · 3 days out · November 3, 2026

D or R take the House / Senate?

Oct 30, 9:39 PM CT

U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 94%, Kalshi 94%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 71%, Kalshi 71%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

U.S. House — Democrats take it, 93.50–93.55%
94%94%chance Democrats take it · the same price on both · both venues up this week
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 94% and Kalshi 94%.
U.S. Senate — Democrats take it, 70.5%
71%71%chance Democrats take it · the same price on both · both venues up this week
U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 71% and Kalshi 71%.

3 closest races

  • tIowa SenateAshley Hinson 56.0%▲2.3Josh Turek 44.5%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election

    Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).

    An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa Senate

    Oct 30, 9:39 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 55.5%, Kalshi 56.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 44.5%, Kalshi 44.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • ahTexas governorGreg Abbott 63.6%▲6.4Hinojosa 36.3%

    POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election

    Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead after losing about seven points in four days.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas governor

    Oct 30, 9:39 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 63.7%, Kalshi 63.5%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 36.0%, Kalshi 36.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • xGeorgia governorKeisha Lance Bottoms 65.5%▲5.2Rick Jackson 33.8%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election

    Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).

    Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side lost about six points in five days.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia governor

    Oct 30, 9:39 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 65.5%, Kalshi 65.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 33.0%, Kalshi 34.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

The other 19 races22 races · 12 still in doubt · Oct 30, 9:39 PM CT · markets, not polling

Senate9 of 10

  • sAlaska SenateMary Peltola 69.3%▲5.031.3%Sullivan

    POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election

    Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).

    A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska Senate

    Oct 30, 9:39 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 71.0%, Kalshi 67.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 29.5%, Kalshi 33.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • aaGeorgia SenateJon Ossoff 97.20%▲1.6Collins 2.83%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election

    Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia Senate

    Oct 30, 9:39 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.2pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 97.2%, Kalshi 97.2%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 2.90%, Kalshi 2.75%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.2pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • qMaine SenateTroy Jackson 68.0%▲6.5Susan Collins 32.0%

    POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election

    Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).

    Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about seven points in five days.

    Two markets, one question

    Maine Senate

    Oct 30, 9:39 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 68.5%, Kalshi 67.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 31.5%, Kalshi 32.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • uMichigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed 76.0%▲7.8Mike Rogers 24.5%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election

    Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about eight points in five days.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan Senate

    Oct 30, 9:39 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 76.5%, Kalshi 75.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 23.5%, Kalshi 25.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • abNebraska SenatePete Ricketts 68.0%▲6.6Osborn 32.3%

    POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election

    Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead after Osborn gained about seven points in five days.

    Two markets, one question

    Nebraska Senate

    Oct 30, 9:39 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 68.5%, Kalshi 67.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 31.0%, Kalshi 33.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • acNew Hampshire SenateChris Pappas 92.4%▲1.67.7%Sununu

    POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election

    Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    New Hampshire Senate

    Oct 30, 9:39 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.3pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 92.5%, Kalshi 92.3%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 7.5%, Kalshi 7.8%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.3pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • zNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 97.15%▲0.2Whatley 3.08%

    POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election

    Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    North Carolina Senate

    Oct 30, 9:39 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.8pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 97.4%, Kalshi 96.9%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 2.70%, Kalshi 3.45%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.8pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • vOhio SenateSherrod Brown 70.5%▲2.1Jon Husted 29.0%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election

    Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).

    A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio Senate

    Oct 30, 9:39 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 70.5%, Kalshi 70.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 28.5%, Kalshi 29.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • rTexas SenateJames Talarico 71.0%▲6.7Ken Paxton 29.0%

    POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election

    James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about seven points in five days.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas Senate

    Oct 30, 9:39 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 71.5%, Kalshi 70.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 28.5%, Kalshi 29.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Governors10 of 12

  • aeAlaska governor12.00%87.9%WilsonBegich 0.05%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election

    Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).

    Wilson holds a clear lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska governor

    Oct 30, 9:39 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 11.5%, Kalshi 12.5%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 0.05%, Kalshi 0.05%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • agArizona governorKatie Hobbs 92.10%▲2.3Biggs 7.63%

    POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election

    Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side lost about three points in four days.

    Two markets, one question

    Arizona governor

    Oct 30, 9:39 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.2pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 92.5%, Kalshi 91.7%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 6.50%, Kalshi 8.75%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.2pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • akFlorida governorByron Donalds 68.3%▲12.731.8%Jolly

    POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election

    Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).

    Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead, but no race here has moved more this week: it is down about fourteen points.

    Two markets, one question

    Florida governor

    Oct 30, 9:39 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 68.0%, Kalshi 68.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 32.0%, Kalshi 31.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • adIowa governorRob Sand 85.5%14.3%Lahn

    POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election

    Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa governor

    Oct 30, 9:39 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 86.5%, Kalshi 84.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 13.0%, Kalshi 15.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • afMichigan governorJocelyn Benson 93.70%▲0.4James 6.47%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election

    Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan governor

    Oct 30, 9:39 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.3pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 93.9%, Kalshi 93.5%; John James (R): Polymarket 5.85%, Kalshi 7.10%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.3pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • yNevada governorAaron Ford 74.0%▲7.7Joe Lombardo 25.5%

    POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election

    Aaron Ford (D) faces Joe Lombardo (R).

    Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about eight points in four days.

    Two markets, one question

    Nevada governor

    Oct 30, 9:39 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nevada governor. Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 74.5%, Kalshi 73.5%; Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 24.5%, Kalshi 26.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aiNew York governorKathy Hochul 96.82%▲1.8Blakeman 3.15%

    POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election

    Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    New York governor

    Oct 30, 9:39 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.6pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 97.55%, Kalshi 96.10%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 2.35%, Kalshi 3.95%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.6pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • pOhio governorAmy Acton 80.0%▲2.020.0%Ramaswamy

    POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election

    Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).

    Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio governor

    Oct 30, 9:39 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 80.5%, Kalshi 79.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • ajPennsylvania governorJosh Shapiro 98.05%▲0.6Garrity 1.83%

    POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election

    Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Pennsylvania governor

    Oct 30, 9:39 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.1pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 98.6%, Kalshi 97.5%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 1.30%, Kalshi 2.35%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.1pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • wWisconsin governorDavid Crowley 83.0%▲3.017.0%Tiffany

    POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election

    David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).

    An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Wisconsin governor

    Oct 30, 9:39 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 83.5%, Kalshi 82.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 16.5%, Kalshi 17.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Oct 30, 9:39 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.

Not news news1 story

Ongoing37 earlier updates100 days

This story has run 38 times over 100 days, starting Jul 23.

  1. Trump Threatens to Bomb Iranian Bridges and Power Plants for Every Ship Hit in Strait of Hormuz
  2. Iran fires multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. base in Jordan; all are intercepted
  3. Iran denies Trump’s claim that new U.S. talks would start Monday
  4. Cargo ship is struck in the Strait of Hormuz
  5. Vance says the Iran talks are moving, then calls the war only half over
  6. Iran won't reopen Hormuz until the US unfreezes its assets and lifts the blockade
  7. Trump threatens to bomb Oman, the U.S. ally brokering the deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
  8. Trump declares an "economic D-Day" on Iran as Hormuz traffic runs 85% below normal
  9. UpdateU.S. goes nearly a month without large Iran strikes as Trump shifts back to sanctions; Hormuz remains closed
  10. U.S. destroys two Iranian rocket launchers loaded to mine the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at bases in Jordan, all intercepted
  11. UpdateU.S. bombs two Iranian rocket sites near the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at Jordan
  12. UpdateU.S. forces struck IRGC air-defense, radar, maritime and mine-laying sites on Iran's southern coast starting at noon on Sept. 1
  13. UpdateU.S. hits about 100 Iranian targets; Iran fires back at American bases in four countries, and a cruise missile kills 4 at a wedding
  14. Reuters weapons experts say a US munition made a direct hit on the Iranian wedding house that killed 5
  15. US destroys or disables 3 Iranian oil tankers after Iran fired ballistic missiles at a US carrier and destroyer
  16. UpdateIran says it hit an unmanned US vessel a day after the tanker strikes; Central Command calls the claim "a total lie"
  17. UpdateIran says it will declare a restricted zone near the Strait of Hormuz and will strike threats "even before" they are carried out
  18. Iran says it seized a US sea drone in Hormuz; CENTCOM says it malfunctioned a day earlier
  19. UpdateIran fires 20 missiles at a US base in Jordan; Jordan says it intercepted 18
  20. UpdateNavy plans to keep 2 carrier groups near Iran at least through 2026
  21. UpdateUnidentified projectile hits Iranian container ship off Hengam Island, killing 1 and wounding 4
  22. UpdateOil's chokepoint shifts to refineries and tankers as JPMorgan drops its baseline oil forecast
  23. UpdateTrump says he is choosing among wiping Iran out, letting it rot economically, or a deal, and would "probably" meet Pezeshkian at the UN this week
  24. UpdateIran offers to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. lifts its naval blockade as traffic falls to two ships
  25. Iran proposes seven-day ceasefire plan to reopen Strait of Hormuz and revive nuclear talks
  26. UpdateTrump rejects Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days in exchange for ending the U.S. blockade
  27. Trump expects more Iran talks this week after rejecting Iran's Hormuz offer; Iran won't soften its terms
  28. UpdateIran says its UN delegation has no talks planned with the US and will fly home Tuesday, Sept. 29; mediators keep working
  29. UpdateQatari compromise to end the U.S.-Iran war stalls; Trump denies aides' account that he offered Iran sanctions relief
  30. Rubio orders Iran's UN delegation out of New York; Trump says Iran will "sign a very fair deal, or they won't exist any longer"
  31. UpdateCRS: 81 U.S. aircraft and drones lost or damaged in Iran war, up from 42 in May
  32. Iran's security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, calls the U.S. reply to Tehran's plan to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz insufficient and says Iran has stopped responding
  33. UpdateIran targeted 24 ships in the Strait of Hormuz in two weeks, its most since the war began, by the FT's count
  34. UpdateSingapore-flagged container ship GFS Pride sinks in the Strait of Hormuz; Singapore says projectiles hit it, Iran says mines
  35. Iranian attacks on Strait of Hormuz shipping hit a record high, NBC News reports; Iran's Guards say two tankers hit mines
  36. UpdateIran says its forces damaged seven oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz overnight; AP could not confirm any of them
  37. UpdateUS moves diplomats out of five Middle East countries and sends more warships as Trump says another Iran operation may come
  38. Speedboat crew damages a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz with limpet mines, in what the Financial Times calls the region's first such attack since 2019 — this issue
FINANCIAL TIMESIran war

Speedboat crew damages a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz with limpet mines, in what the Financial Times calls the region's first such attack since 2019

Britain's maritime security office confirmed a small boat fixed two explosives above the waterline of the Panama-flagged Louise 1, but it named no attacker.

Attackers in a speedboat damaged the tanker Louise 1 in the Strait of Hormuz with limpet mines (explosives stuck to a ship's hull by hand) on Thursday, Oct. 29, the Financial Times reported. The FT calls it the first such attack in the region since 2019. The paper also calls it a likely change in tactics by Iran.

Friday, Oct. 30. Britain's maritime security office said the crew was safe and the engine-room fire was out, and the ship sailed on. Reuters' sources call it the first successful limpet-mine strike since the war began in February, after a September attempt failed to detonate. The same day, Iran's Revolutionary Guard said four tankers using routes it had not approved hit mines and caught fire, AP reported. The U.S. military denies the mine claims and says it has cleared the main shipping lanes.

Still open. Who did it. Britain's maritime security office named no attacker. Reuters' maritime security sources describe the same limpet-mine method but say responsibility is unclear. No investigator has released evidence tying the boat to Iranian forces. Reuters also notes that Ukraine hit the same tanker with naval drones in the Black Sea in July, saying it carried Russian oil.

  • The current U.S. advisory tells commercial ships to keep at least 30 nautical miles from U.S. warships, so no escort sits alongside to stop an approaching boat.
11 stories that didn't make the cutSeen by the desk, ranked, and not run. The number is where each stood in the day's order.

News

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  • 46Obamacare premiums rise againObamacare premiums rise again
  • 47Federal debt surpassed GDP in FY2026Federal debt surpassed GDP in FY2026
  • 48Texas sees surge of new and Hispanic early voters, with Hidalgo County passing its 2022 totalTexas sees surge of new and Hispanic early voters, with Hidalgo County passing its 2022 total
  • 49CDC measles-in-pregnancy alert not approvedCDC measles-in-pregnancy alert not approved
  • 50Babies catching measles in uteroBabies catching measles in utero
  • 51Ramaswamy pulls attack ad on Acton after backlash as Ohio governor race tightensRamaswamy pulls attack ad on Acton after backlash as Ohio governor race tightens
  • 54Christa Pike's first statement since her failed Tennessee executionChrista Pike's first statement since her failed Tennessee execution
  • 55Trump administration halts INCLE security-program funding for UkraineTrump administration halts INCLE security-program funding for Ukraine

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  • 52Talarico vs. Paxton: final stretch of the Texas Senate raceTalarico vs.
  • 53Pope Leo XIV becomes first pope to vote in a US election, by Illinois mail ballotPope Leo XIV becomes first pope to vote in a US election, by Illinois mail ballot

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