Political Guyentist — August 20, 2026

News news6 stories

Ongoing7 earlier updates

This story has run 8 times over 28 days, starting Jul 23.

Jul 23Trump Threatens to Bomb Iranian Bridges and Power Plants for Every Ship Hit in Strait of Hormuz
Jul 28Iran fires multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. base in Jordan; all are intercepted
Aug 4Iran denies Trump’s claim that new U.S. talks would start Monday
Aug 5Cargo ship is struck in the Strait of Hormuz
Aug 9Vance says the Iran talks are moving, then calls the war only half over
Aug 10Iran won't reopen Hormuz until the US unfreezes its assets and lifts the blockade
Aug 18Trump threatens to bomb Oman, the U.S. ally brokering the deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
Aug 20Trump declares an "economic D-Day" on Iran as Hormuz traffic runs 85% below normal — this issue

1.) WASHINGTON EXAMINER: Trump declares an "economic D-Day" on Iran as Hormuz traffic runs 85% below normal

Two days after the 60-day truce expired with no deal, Trump threatened any country whose banks, airports or companies help Tehran. Only 10 to 12 ships a day crossed the strait his blockade was meant to reopen.

President Trump announced a campaign to cut Iran off from the world economy. He threatened consequences for countries whose institutions or companies give Tehran money or trade. "This will be an ECONOMIC D-DAY, and we need all of our Allies to stand with the United States of America to isolate, and defeat, the Iran threat," he wrote. He added: "Oil smuggling, swap lines, cash transfers, exchange houses, ship registries, front companies — It all needs to stop NOW." The threat reaches past Iran itself. It covers any nation that lets its financial institutions, businesses, airports or government entities keep Tehran solvent. Trump also said the military position favors the United States, and that talks are still possible. Ship-tracking firm Kpler counted 12 crossings of the Strait of Hormuz on Monday and 10 on Tuesday, far below prewar levels.

BackgroundWhat the blockade has already taken out of Iran's economy4 facts

Iranian crude loadings fell from 893,000 barrels a day in July to 156,000 through Aug. 17 — a drop of more than 80% in six weeks (Kpler).
The Foundation for Defense of Democracies puts Iran's lost oil revenue at roughly $435 million a day since the blockade began Apr. 13.
Iran's inflation is running near 65% by its own central bank's count. The rial fell to 1.9 million to the dollar in April.
China buys more than 80% of the oil Iran still ships. Its small "teapot" refiners hold almost no US assets — and US assets are what a secondary sanction is supposed to seize.

Red take

Paper designations failed for four decades, and Chinese teapot refiners with no US assets can ignore another round of them — but the blockade is not paper. Iranian crude loadings fell from 893,000 barrels a day in July to 156,000 through Aug. 17, and a refiner immune to sanctions still cannot buy a cargo that never sails. Closing the exchange houses and ship registries that move the last 156,000 is what keeps that leverage from leaking away before Tehran has to trade for it.

Blue take

The crude drop is real leverage, and it is being spent on the one thing already tested and failed: threatening allied banks and ship registries, the 2018 playbook a 2024 Johns Hopkins study found strengthened Iran's state while impoverishing its people. The cost is not abstract. At 10 to 12 crossings a day, 85% below normal, the strait the blockade was meant to reopen is closed to everyone shipping through it, and every week of that is paid by importers who have no quarrel with Tehran.

If Gulf producers permanently route around the strait, Iran loses the leverage the chokepoint gave it. A split Gulf export system becomes ordinary.

Brent sat near $91.50 on Aug. 19. It had dipped to about $80 on Aug. 4, when a deal briefly looked possible. The price of the war shows up at American pumps.

Ongoing3 earlier updates

This story has run 4 times over 12 days, starting Aug 8.

Aug 8Judge orders Pentagon to resume onshore-wind reviews
Aug 17Trump orders the Pentagon to cut U.S.–South Korea military drills, granting a demand North Korea has made for decades
Aug 18Trump cuts joint war drills with South Korea, blaming Seoul's refusal to help on Iran
Aug 20Trump cut the U.S.–South Korea war drills in half without telling Seoul first — this issue

2.) THE HILL: Trump cut the U.S.–South Korea war drills in half without telling Seoul first

Ulchi Freedom Shield goes from 11 days to five, ending Friday, Aug. 21 instead of Aug. 27, after Trump called the exercise insulting to Kim Jong Un.

The United States cut Exercise Ulchi Freedom Shield — the larger of the two combined war drills the U.S. and South Korea run every year to practice fighting the North — from 11 days to five, ending Friday, Aug. 21 instead of Thursday, Aug. 27. The live field training went with it: some events canceled, others moved onto computers. South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun said his government learned about it the same way the public did: "Neither our government nor U.S. officials knew what President Trump wrote on his Truth Social. We were not notified in advance." Trump said he has been in contact with Kim Jong Un and predicted the two would meet later this year. He also put a number on the North's arsenal: "He has 57 very powerful nuclear weapons. He's gonna be fine." Kim's sister, Kim Yo Jong, said she knew of no such contact and that Pyongyang was not interested either way. "The provocative, aggressive nature of the drills won't change even though their duration and size were reduced," she said.

What the six cut days were supposed to testPhase 2, the counterattack half set for Aug. 24–27, was cut outright.3 details

Phase 2, the counterattack half set for Aug. 24–27, was cut outright. It is the only stretch where a South Korean four-star general commands the combined force — the one test of whether Seoul is ready to take wartime command of its own troops from a U.S. general.
Fourteen field training events of battalion size or larger were planned around the drill, already down from 17 in 2025. Those are being sharply curtailed, with the details still under negotiation.
About 18,000 South Korean troops were slated to take part, alongside some of the 28,500 U.S. personnel permanently stationed in the country.

Red take

Cutting Ulchi Freedom Shield from 11 days to five defers the wartime-command rehearsal a year; it does not move the 28,500 U.S. troops who actually hold the line, and next August restores it. The real cost is that Cho Hyun learned of it from a Truth Social post — an avoidable insult to an ally. That is a price worth paying once if it opens a channel to a man Trump says has "57 very powerful nuclear weapons," and worth nothing if the meeting never happens.

Blue take

The 11-day drill dropped to five deleted the half where a South Korean four-star leads — the only annual test of whether Seoul can take wartime command of its own troops — and Kim Yo Jong's answer was that she knew of no contact and Pyongyang was "not interested either way." A concession is cheap only if something comes back for it. Cho Hyun found out with the public, and allies who learn their defenses were traded on Truth Social start building deterrents they control.

Pyongyang's stated price for any Trump–Kim meeting is that the United States accept it as a nuclear-armed state — the exact outcome the drills exist to prevent.

3.) NBC NEWS: UAE cuts off all trade with Iran, closing the gateway that handles a third of Iranian imports

Abu Dhabi halted trade, commerce and all financial transactions with Tehran on Tuesday, Aug. 18, after saying two Iranian ballistic missiles fell into the Persian Gulf; Iran denies firing them.

The United Arab Emirates halted trade, commercial exchanges and financial transactions with Iran until further notice. The UAE said two ballistic missiles launched from Iran flew toward the country and fell into the Persian Gulf. Iran denied launching them. As of April the UAE accounted for 30.43% of Iran's imports and 12.5% of its exports — the biggest single hole either side of Iran's trade ledger. The rupture isolates Tehran beyond the direct loss of a customer. As NBC News put it, "Iran therefore depends heavily on the UAE, not because the UAE itself produces one-third of Iran's imports, but because it serves as a major gateway for Iran to access third-country goods and commercial infrastructure." TIME's assessment: "The impact on the Iranian economy could be significant."

What the halt cuts off besides cargoThe UAE supplies roughly 22% of the about $23 billion in services — shipping, insurance, trade paperwork — that Iran buys abroad…3 details

The UAE supplies roughly 22% of the about $23 billion in services — shipping, insurance, trade paperwork — that Iran buys abroad each year, the plumbing that makes the goods trade work.
Total two-way trade has been running $16–28 billion a year, up from UAE exports to Iran of about $5.2 billion in 2018 (Iran International).
Retired US Gen. Mark Kimmitt, a former assistant secretary of state, told Al Jazeera the UAE step is "even more significant than the embargo being put on by the United States."

UAE share of Iran's trade, April 2025

2 views

The embargo is Abu Dhabi's answer to Iran's campaign against shipping through the strait. There, the Islamabad transit agreement lapsed Monday, Aug. 17 with nothing replacing it, and Tehran is now demanding permits and tolls.

Economic pressure only works if someone in Tehran is looking for an exit, and the faction now running Iran's security apparatus is the one that argues against taking one.

4.) THE HILL: Fed held rates 9-3, and the minutes show the hawks were not just the three who voted no

Minutes from the July 28-29 meeting, released Wednesday, Aug. 19, say "many participants" thought a rate increase would be needed if inflation stays high.

The Federal Reserve left interest rates alone at its July 28-29 meeting, and the written account of that meeting, released Wednesday, Aug. 19, shows how many officials are close to voting for an increase. The Fed's rate-setting group, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), held its benchmark rate — the one that feeds mortgage, car-loan and credit-card rates — at 3.50-3.75 percent, down from a 2024 peak of 5.25-5.50 percent. The vote was 9-3, the fifth straight meeting with no change; the three dissenters wanted a quarter-point increase. The Fed publishes this account about three weeks after each meeting. This one showed mounting concern about inflation that has stayed above the Fed's 2 percent goal for more than five years — the Fed's preferred price gauge ran 3.7 percent in June, about 1.7 points above that goal. Multiple officials said an interest-rate increase could become necessary later this year, and many participants viewed a move as potentially warranted if inflation does not come down. Some officials said financial conditions may not be tight enough to slow prices at all. The Financial Times, reporting on the same account, wrote that "many members of the FOMC thought a rate increase would soon be warranted if inflation remains high." Most participants still expected inflation to decline on its own.

What the three dissenting votes brokeCleveland's Beth Hammack, Minneapolis's Neel Kashkari and Dallas's Lorie Logan all voted no the same way, for a quarter-point…5 details

Cleveland's Beth Hammack, Minneapolis's Neel Kashkari and Dallas's Lorie Logan all voted no the same way, for a quarter-point increase — the first three-way, same-direction dissent since September 2016.
It is the largest dissent against a new Fed chair since Arthur Burns in 1970, per St. Louis Fed records, and Kevin Warsh, the new chair, has run only two meetings.
Two more regional presidents who do not hold a vote this year, Kansas City's Jeff Schmid and St. Louis's Alberto Musalem, were reported to be in the same camp.
Voting against the decision is rare in normal times: about 6 percent of all Fed votes since 1957.
Warsh also floated cutting the Fed's meeting count from eight a year to six, which would mean fewer scheduled chances to move rates.

The policy rate has fallen below inflation

2 views

Red take

A quarter point costs borrowers real money now, and most participants still expect inflation to fall on its own — but that has been the forecast through more than five years above the Fed's 2 percent goal. Holding at 3.50-3.75 percent for a fifth straight meeting buys borrowers a discount today and charges wage earners for it in purchasing power they never get back.

Blue take

The minutes record a conditional — many participants thought a hike would be needed if inflation stays high — while most participants still expected inflation to decline on its own. Raising before that condition is met sends the bill straight to mortgage, car-loan and credit-card borrowers to insure a risk the committee's own forecast does not expect. The 9-3 hold makes borrowers wait for evidence rather than pay ahead of it.

Betting markets read the minutes as a warning rather than a decision: the first meeting where a hike is close to a coin flip is December, not September.

5.) BBC NEWS: Trump pauses 50% Canada tariff two hours before it hits, buying three days

The duty covered roughly $20.2 billion of Canadian goods, and was set to start at 12:01 a.m. Wednesday, Aug. 19; the new deadline is Saturday, Aug. 22, and no signed text exists yet.

Trump paused a planned wave of 50% tariffs on Canadian goods — double the 25% he put on most Canadian goods in February 2025 — until the weekend as U.S. and Canadian negotiators, meeting for a third consecutive day, worked toward a final agreement. Trump said Canada had agreed to eliminate tariffs affecting American farmers, but he did not say which agricultural sectors were involved. The coverage of the deal, the concessions on each side, and the disputes still unresolved were not made public. "We feel confident that we've reached an agreement that will not only continue to protect American workers, American jobs, American supply chains, but really strengthen the North American economy," a U.S. official said. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney was more guarded, describing substantial progress while saying important work remained. Canadian negotiators had said the two sides were stuck as recently as Monday, Aug. 17.

What the paused tariff would have taxed, and what it sparedHit: hockey equipment, wine, beer, milk, cheese, cement, plywood, clothing, furniture, electronics and industrial machinery —…4 details

Hit: hockey equipment, wine, beer, milk, cheese, cement, plywood, clothing, furniture, electronics and industrial machinery — consumer goods, not raw inputs.
Spared: energy, potash, fish and critical minerals, the categories U.S. refiners and farmers cannot easily replace.
Legal vehicle: Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, a law that sat unused for its 96 years on the books. It lets a president tax a country's goods heavily when that country is found to discriminate against U.S. commerce.
Unlike Trump's earlier Canada tariffs, this one would have taxed goods that the USMCA — the trade pact among the U.S Canada and Mexico — guarantees enter duty-free.

Red take

Two days after Canadian negotiators called the talks an impasse on Aug. 17, Ottawa agreed to drop tariffs hitting American farmers — movement no ordinary channel had produced. The threat was built on an untested statute and no signed text exists yet, which is a real cost carried by importers. But it was aimed at hockey equipment and furniture while sparing energy and potash, so the pressure landed where U.S. refiners would not pay it, and three more days to Aug. 22 is cheap.

Blue take

The impasse broke in two days, and sparing energy and potash aimed the duty away from U.S. refiners — that was deliberate. But a pause two hours out on roughly $20.2 billion of goods, with no signed text and no published list of what Canada got, means the farm concession cannot be priced against what was traded for it. Importers now hedge treaty risk on wine, furniture and machinery orders, and a deadline that moves to Aug. 22 moves again.

The three-country trade pact is up for its scheduled review this year, and Trump's use of a 1930 law to tax goods it protects is the precedent Canada and Mexico now have to negotiate against.

6.) THE NEW YORK TIMES: Federal debt tops $40 trillion, adding the last trillion in under five months

Treasury's Tuesday, Aug. 18 tally put gross debt at $40.047 trillion — $32.3 trillion of it owed to outside investors, $7.7 trillion owed by the government to itself.

Gross federal debt exceeded $40 trillion for the first time, reaching $40.047 trillion in the Treasury's Tuesday balance — less than five months after the total passed $39 trillion. Debt held by the public, the portion sold into bond markets to investors, foreign central banks and the Federal Reserve, stood at about $32.3 trillion. The remaining roughly $7.7 trillion is intragovernmental debt: IOUs between federal accounts, mostly what the Treasury owes the Social Security trust fund. The two figures behave differently. Public debt is the part that competes with private borrowers for savings and pushes on interest rates; the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget calls the gross number "less economically meaningful" as a share of GDP. "It took nearly 200 years for America's gross debt to reach $1 trillion for the first time in 1981," the group noted.

What the interest bill on that debt is crowding outNet interest hit $971 billion in fiscal 2025 — more than defense, more than Medicare, second only to Social Security.4 details

Net interest hit $971 billion in fiscal 2025 — more than defense, more than Medicare, second only to Social Security.
Interest eats 19 cents of every federal revenue dollar in 2026, up from 9 cents in 2021; CBO projects 26 cents by 2036.
CBO's February 2026 baseline projects net interest reaching $2.1 trillion by 2036 — roughly double projected defense spending that year.
Deficits are set to average 6.1% of GDP over the next decade against a 50-year average of 3.8%.

Red take

Strip out the $7.7 trillion the Treasury owes the Social Security trust fund and the case is unchanged: the $32.3 trillion held by the public is what competes for savings, and servicing it cost $971 billion in fiscal 2025 — more than defense, more than Medicare, and buying no benefit and no ship. At the pace that added a trillion in under five months, interest claims the budget before Congress funds a single thing it chose.

Blue take

The $971 billion interest bill is a real claim on the budget, and revenue alone will not close it — but it is owed on the $32.3 trillion held by the public, not on the $7.7 trillion the Treasury owes the Social Security trust fund. Counting those IOUs as debt to be cut takes benefits already earned from retirees and leaves the interest untouched, which is why CRFB calls the gross figure "less economically meaningful."

By CBO's count, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act adds $4.7 trillion to deficits. The tariff revenue meant to offset it, about $3 trillion, does not cover that.

Quick bites28

Treasury doubled planned bond buybacks to $4 billion and the 30-year yield fell to 5.18%
BLOOMBERG
The Treasury doubled its planned buybacks of longer-dated debt from $2 billion to $4 billion for September 9 through November 4, after the 30-year yield hit 5.34% on Tuesday, its highest in almost 20 years. The yield eased to 5.18% once the buybacks were announced. Analysts told BBC News that against the size of outstanding Treasury debt, an increase that size was unlikely to bring lasting relief.
Four states seek $200 billion from Meta over child-safety design
PBS NEWSHOUR
California, Colorado, Kentucky and New Jersey are the first of 29 states to go to trial, and they want damages plus changes to how Meta runs Facebook and Instagram. They say Meta built the apps to keep minors hooked even after it learned the mental-health risks. Former employee Arturo Béjar testified that the company put user growth ahead of child safety. Meta denies the claims and says it stands by its record of protecting minors.
Ongoing1
This story has run 2 times over 9 days, starting Aug 11.
Aug 11Meta and TikTok tried to end thousands of youth addiction suits before trial; the 9th Circuit told them to wait
Aug 20Four states seek $200 billion from Meta over child-safety design — this issue
Currently showing Largest corporate penalties in U.S. history
Largest corporate penalties in U.S. history
Trump picks White House aide Heidi Overton for FDA, and Cassidy is already balking
TIME
Trump named Dr. Heidi Overton, a health aide on his Domestic Policy Council, to run the Food and Drug Administration. Senate health committee chairman Bill Cassidy (Sen-R Louisiana) said her role in Trump's vaccine executive order was "almost disqualifying." Overton is a doctor with a Johns Hopkins degree in clinical investigation. She has backed splitting the MMR shot into three and tightening limits on the abortion pill mifepristone.
Ongoing2
This story has run 3 times over 9 days, starting Aug 11.
Aug 11Trump orders the childhood MMR shot split into three injections at three separate visits
Aug 17Cassidy says Kennedy lied about leaving the childhood vaccine schedule alone, and that Trump's order will raise families' costs
Aug 20Trump picks White House aide Heidi Overton for FDA, and Cassidy is already balking — this issue
Appeals court keeps immigration agents away from 1,400 houses of worship in 33 states
STATELINE
A three-judge panel of the 4th Circuit upheld a lower-court order. It bars Homeland Security from immigration enforcement at or near the houses of worship in the case. That covers more than 1,400 congregations, and no others. They sued after DHS ended the "sensitive locations" policy in January 2025. The rule barred immigration arrests at churches, schools and hospitals. Four administrations kept it, starting with a 1993 memo.

2 more quick bitesSame day, same run — headlines only until you open one

A woman told the House Ethics Committee that Rep. Jimmy Gomez sexually assaulted her
A woman told the House Ethics Committee that Jimmy Gomez (Rep-D California) sexually assaulted her, her lawyers Lisa Banks and Sarah Nesbitt said. That statement is the only public account; the committee has made no finding, and Gomez has not publicly responded.
Judge blocks HHS teen-pregnancy grant changes but leaves 53 cancellations in place
U.S. District Judge Christopher Cooper temporarily blocked HHS from changing Teen Pregnancy Prevention Program grants while the lawsuit goes on. He found the challengers likely to win. The ruling does not restore the money HHS canceled at the end of June, when it killed 53 of the program's 67 grants two years early. Cooper said his power to order that money back remains unclear.

53 of 67 grants canceled at the end of June, two years early
Chart · pipeline render▲ label over mark · collapsed plot
Teen Pregnancy Prevention Program grants after HHS cuts
Source: Judge blocks HHS overhaul of teen-pregnancy grants but leaves cancellations intactPOLI

Elections22 races

Congressional control

Who ends up holding each chamber

Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT
7-day replay

U.S. House: chance of Democratic control of the House, Polymarket 89%, Kalshi 85%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 51%, Kalshi 49%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

U.S. House — Democratic control7 days ago · Democrats favoured

88%86%chance of Democratic control of the House · 1.5pp apart

U.S. House: chance of Democratic control of the House. 7 days ago, Polymarket 88% and Kalshi 86%. Today it stands at Polymarket 89% and Kalshi 85%.

U.S. Senate — Democrats take it7 days ago · Democrats favoured

53%50%chance Democrats take it · 2.5pp apart

U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. 7 days ago, Polymarket 53% and Kalshi 50%. Today it stands at Polymarket 51% and Kalshi 49%.

Replay7 days ago

How to read thisthe contract, the key, and the week panel

Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take it. This desk has not established who is defending the House, so that bar stays in the market’s own words and claims nothing about who would be losing it. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.

two venues, priced separately
shaded = how far apart they are
50% — control flips here
the last 7 days, on its own scale
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed

Both lines in a week panel are the same contract, priced by two venues — not one line per party. Its colour is whose chance the bar is measuring, which is why a panel can be blue while the verdict beside it reads Republicans favoured.

Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.

The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 4.0pp gap / 2.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.

Who is defending the Senate is sourced, not remembered — 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.” Nothing in this desk’s pages states who holds the House, so no figure here is presented as a challenger’s chance of taking it; that bar is the market’s own question and nothing more.

Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

PolymarketU.S. House · 7 days agoWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Democratic control88%

Republican, implied12%

volume$5.3M

7-day move+1.0pp

KalshiU.S. House · 7 days agoWill Democrats win the House in 2026?

Democratic control86%

Republican, implied14%

volume9.4M contracts

bid / ask84% / 85%

7-day move-1.5pp

PolymarketU.S. Senate · 7 days agoWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Democratic control53%

Republican, implied47%

volume$2.3M

7-day move-2.0pp

KalshiU.S. Senate · 7 days agoWill Democrats win the U.S. Senate in 2026?

Democratic control50%

Republican, implied50%

volume3.2M contracts

bid / ask48% / 49%

7-day move-1.5pp

Probability that Democrats control each chamber, as each venue prices it, by day.
Day	U.S. House · Polymarket	U.S. House · Kalshi	U.S. Senate · Polymarket	U.S. Senate · Kalshi
7 days ago	88%	86%	53%	50%
6 days ago	88%	86%	53%	48%
5 days ago	88%	86%	53%	49%
4 days ago	88%	86%	51%	48%
3 days ago	88%	85%	52%	49%
2 days ago	88%	86%	51%	48%
yesterday	89%	85%	51%	46%
today	89%	85%	51%	49%

3 of 22 races. Open one, or all of them — every race is on the page either way.

gAlaska SenateAngie Nixon beats Alex Vindman for Florida's Democratic Senate nod, 750,000 votes to 550,000Mary Peltola 56.0%Dan Sullivan 43.8%

THE GUARDIAN: Angie Nixon beats Alex Vindman for Florida's Democratic Senate nod, 750,000 votes to 550,000

Florida state Rep. Angie Nixon won the Democratic Senate nomination with more than 750,000 votes to Alex Vindman's roughly 550,000, despite raising about $975,000 against his $16.3 million. In Alaska's nonpartisan Senate primary the same night, Mary Peltola led the field at 48.0% with ballots still being counted.

Nixon: ~$975,000 raised. Vindman: $16.3 million. A better than 10-to-1 edge that bought him second place.

Vindman outraised her more than 10 to one and still lost.

Two markets, one question

Alaska Senate

Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 55.5%, Kalshi 56.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 44.0%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Mary Peltola 56% · Dan Sullivan 44%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Mary Peltola (D)7 days ago

Polymarket$220K51.5%

Kalshi68.8K contracts · 56%/57%54.0%

venue gap2.5pp

7-day move+4.0pp

Dan Sullivan (R)7 days ago

Polymarket$128K48.5%

Kalshi67.2K contracts · 43%/44%45.0%

venue gap3.5pp

7-day move-4.5pp

Every sample behind the chart. Alaska Senate, snapshot Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT.
Day	Mary Peltola · Polymarket	Mary Peltola · Kalshi	Dan Sullivan · Polymarket	Dan Sullivan · Kalshi
7 days ago	51.5%	54.0%	48.5%	45.0%
6 days ago	51.0%	57.0%	48.5%	47.0%
5 days ago	51.5%	53.0%	48.5%	47.0%
4 days ago	57.5%	56.0%	42.5%	47.0%
3 days ago	56.5%	56.0%	43.0%	48.0%
2 days ago	55.0%	56.0%	44.5%	47.0%
yesterday	56.0%	57.0%	44.0%	44.0%
today	55.5%	56.5%	44.0%	43.5%

rGeorgia SenateJon Ossoff 92.05%Collins 7.60%

POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election

Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Georgia Senate

Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT
widest venue gap 0.9pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 92.5%, Kalshi 91.6%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 7.35%, Kalshi 7.85%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.9pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Jon Ossoff 92% · Mike Collins 7.8%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Jon Ossoff (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$44.1K93.0%

Kalshi320K contracts · 92%/92%91.5%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move-0.5pp

Mike Collins (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$71.7K7.7%

Kalshi774K contracts · 7.7%/8.0%8.5%

venue gap0.8pp

7-day move-0.4pp

Every sample behind the chart. Georgia Senate, snapshot Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT.
Day	Jon Ossoff · Polymarket	Jon Ossoff · Kalshi	Mike Collins · Polymarket	Mike Collins · Kalshi
7 days ago	93.0%	91.5%	7.70%	8.50%
6 days ago	93.0%	91.7%	7.70%	8.90%
5 days ago	93.0%	92.0%	7.55%	8.70%
4 days ago	92.5%	92.3%	7.60%	8.70%
3 days ago	92.5%	92.3%	7.35%	8.40%
2 days ago	93.5%	92.3%	5.55%	8.50%
yesterday	92.5%	92.4%	7.45%	8.30%
today	92.5%	91.6%	7.35%	7.85%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

kIowa SenateAshley Hinson 59.5%Josh Turek 40.8%

POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election

Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).

An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead.

Two markets, one question

Iowa Senate

Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 60.5%, Kalshi 58.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 40.0%, Kalshi 41.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Ashley Hinson 59% · Josh Turek 41%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Ashley Hinson (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$105K57%

Kalshi890K contracts · 58%/59%55%

venue gap2.0pp

7-day move+3.5pp

Josh Turek (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$104K43.5%

Kalshi772K contracts · 41%/42%45.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move-3.5pp

Every sample behind the chart. Iowa Senate, snapshot Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT.
Day	Ashley Hinson · Polymarket	Ashley Hinson · Kalshi	Josh Turek · Polymarket	Josh Turek · Kalshi
7 days ago	57.0%	55.0%	43.5%	45.0%
6 days ago	57.5%	55.0%	43.0%	45.0%
5 days ago	57.5%	55.0%	43.5%	45.0%
4 days ago	59.5%	56.0%	40.5%	43.0%
3 days ago	59.5%	57.0%	40.5%	43.0%
2 days ago	60.0%	59.0%	40.0%	42.0%
yesterday	60.5%	60.0%	40.0%	42.0%
today	60.5%	58.5%	40.0%	41.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

The other 19 races22 consequential races · Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT · markets, not polling

Senate7 of 10

iMaine SenateTroy Jackson 67.5%Susan Collins 32.5%

POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election

Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).

Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Maine Senate

Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT
widest venue gap 4.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 69.5%, Kalshi 65.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 34.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Troy Jackson 67% · Susan Collins 34%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Troy Jackson (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$717K69.5%

Kalshi1.8M contracts · 65%/66%66.0%

venue gap3.5pp

7-day move0.0pp

Susan Collins (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$439K29.5%

Kalshi2.1M contracts · 34%/35%35.0%

venue gap5.5pp

7-day move+1.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Maine Senate, snapshot Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT.
Day	Troy Jackson · Polymarket	Troy Jackson · Kalshi	Susan Collins · Polymarket	Susan Collins · Kalshi
7 days ago	69.5%	66.0%	29.5%	35.0%
6 days ago	69.5%	66.0%	29.5%	36.0%
5 days ago	69.5%	66.0%	29.5%	36.0%
4 days ago	69.5%	66.0%	29.5%	36.0%
3 days ago	69.5%	66.0%	30.5%	36.0%
2 days ago	69.5%	66.0%	30.5%	35.0%
yesterday	69.5%	66.0%	30.5%	35.0%
today	69.5%	65.5%	30.5%	34.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

lMichigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed 63.5%Mike Rogers 37.5%

POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election

Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about seven points in a week.

Two markets, one question

Michigan Senate

Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 64.5%, Kalshi 62.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 36.5%, Kalshi 38.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 63% · Mike Rogers 38%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Abdul El-Sayed (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$268K55.5%

Kalshi945K contracts · 62%/63%58.0%

venue gap2.5pp

7-day move+9.0pp

Mike Rogers (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$242K43.5%

Kalshi1.2M contracts · 38%/39%44.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move-7.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Michigan Senate, snapshot Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT.
Day	Abdul El-Sayed · Polymarket	Abdul El-Sayed · Kalshi	Mike Rogers · Polymarket	Mike Rogers · Kalshi
7 days ago	55.5%	58.0%	43.5%	44.0%
6 days ago	55.5%	54.0%	45.5%	46.0%
5 days ago	58.0%	56.0%	42.5%	45.0%
4 days ago	58.5%	57.0%	41.5%	44.0%
3 days ago	58.5%	58.0%	41.5%	43.0%
2 days ago	61.5%	56.0%	38.5%	43.0%
yesterday	64.5%	62.0%	36.5%	39.0%
today	64.5%	62.5%	36.5%	38.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

sNebraska SenatePete Ricketts 71.0%Dan Osborn 28.8%

POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election

Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).

The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Nebraska Senate

Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 71.5%, Kalshi 70.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 28.5%, Kalshi 29.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Pete Ricketts 71% · Dan Osborn 29%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Pete Ricketts (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$80.1K71.5%

Kalshi239K contracts · 70%/71%71.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move0.0pp

Dan Osborn (I)7 days ago

Polymarket$25.1K28%

Kalshi345K contracts · 28%/30%30%

venue gap2.0pp

7-day move+0.5pp

Every sample behind the chart. Nebraska Senate, snapshot Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT.
Day	Pete Ricketts · Polymarket	Pete Ricketts · Kalshi	Dan Osborn · Polymarket	Dan Osborn · Kalshi
7 days ago	71.5%	71.0%	28.0%	30%
6 days ago	71.0%	71.0%	29.0%	30%
5 days ago	71.5%	70.0%	28.0%	30%
4 days ago	71.5%	71.0%	28.5%	30%
3 days ago	71.5%	71.0%	27.5%	29%
2 days ago	71.5%	71.0%	28.5%	29%
yesterday	71.5%	71.0%	28.5%	28%
today	71.5%	70.5%	28.5%	29%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

tNew Hampshire SenateChris Pappas 86.5%13.8%Sununu

POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election

Chris Pappas (D) leads the unresolved Democratic primary; John E. Sununu (R) leads the unresolved Republican primary.

Neither nomination is official yet, though the market already treats both as decided.

General election wintwo venues

Chris Pappas^* (D)party contract85.5%87.5%2.0pp apart

The whole field

New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary

Every candidate the venue lists, replayed across the window it has priced. Bars are linear, so a 0.05% long shot is a hairline — that is what the market thinks of them.

Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT
6 candidates listed

New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary on today, priced by Kalshi: Chris Pappas 95%, Karishma Manzur 4.9%, Maggie Goodlander 1.3%, Annie Kuster 0.5%, Jared Sullivan 0.5%, Stefany Shaheen 0.5%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

Chris Pappas95%

Karishma Manzur4.9%

Maggie Goodlander1.3%

Annie Kuster0.5%

Jared Sullivan0.5%

Stefany Shaheen0.5%

Daytoday

Biggest moves over the window (Kalshi): Karishma Manzur -1.0pp · Chris Pappas +0.7pp · leading on today: Chris Pappas at 95%.

A candidate with no sample on the selected day is shown as not priced and dropped to the bottom rather than carried forward from an earlier day. Venues list candidates on different dates, so the field genuinely grows and shrinks across the window.

New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary — Kalshiprice by day, plus the other venue’s price today.
Candidate	2 days ago	yesterday	today	Other venue, today	Volume
Chris Pappas	94%	97%	95%	—	11.0K contracts
Karishma Manzur	5.9%	7.0%	4.9%	—	9.7K contracts
Maggie Goodlander	—	—	1.3%	—	33 contracts
Annie Kuster	—	—	0.5%	—	102 contracts
Jared Sullivan	—	—	0.5%	—	3 contracts
Stefany Shaheen	—	—	0.5%	—	208 contracts

No 7-day series from Kalshi for Maggie Goodlander, Annie Kuster, Jared Sullivan, Stefany Shaheen— they only appear at “today”.

New Hampshire Democratic Senate primaryNomination odds · Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT

Chris Pappas (D)95%+0.7pp

Karishma Manzur (D)4.9%-1.0pp

Maggie Goodlander (D)1.3%7D —

Annie Kuster (D)0.5%7D —

Jared Sullivan (D)0.5%7D —

Stefany Shaheen (D)0.5%7D —

John E. Sununu^* (R)party contract15.0%12.5%2.5pp apart

The whole field

New Hampshire Republican Senate primary

Every candidate the venue lists, replayed across the window it has priced. Bars are linear, so a 0.05% long shot is a hairline — that is what the market thinks of them.

Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT
4 candidates listed

New Hampshire Republican Senate primary on today, priced by Kalshi: John E. Sununu 96%, Scott Brown 4.0%, Chris Sununu 1.8%, Dan Innis 1.1%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

John E. Sununu96%

Scott Brown4.0%

Chris Sununu1.8%

Dan Innis1.1%

Daytoday

Biggest moves over the window (Kalshi): John E. Sununu -2.0pp · Scott Brown +0.4pp · leading on today: John E. Sununu at 96%.

New Hampshire Republican Senate primary — Kalshiprice by day, plus the other venue’s price today.
Candidate	5 days ago	4 days ago	3 days ago	2 days ago	yesterday	today	Other venue, today	Volume
John E. Sununu	98%	98%	94%	99%	99%	96%	—	12.7K contracts
Scott Brown	—	—	3.6%	5.5%	5.0%	4.0%	—	21.4K contracts
Chris Sununu	—	—	—	1.4%	1.4%	1.8%	—	22.6K contracts
Dan Innis	—	—	—	—	—	1.1%	—	37 contracts

No 7-day series from Kalshi for Dan Innis— they only appear at “today”.

New Hampshire Republican Senate primaryNomination odds · Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT

John E. Sununu (R)96%-2.0pp

Scott Brown (R)4.0%+0.4pp

Chris Sununu (R)1.8%+0.4pp

Dan Innis (R)1.1%7D —

* Current primary leader; nomination not settled. General-election odds above may price the party rather than the person.

Two markets, one question

New Hampshire Senate

Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT
widest venue gap 2.5pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 85.5%, Kalshi 87.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 15.0%, Kalshi 12.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Chris Pappas 87% · John E. Sununu 13%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Chris Pappas (D)*7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$29.0K85%

Kalshi70.6K contracts · 87%/88%89%

venue gap4.0pp

7-day move+0.5pp

John E. Sununu (R)*7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$18.4K14%

Kalshi107K contracts · 12%/13%12%

venue gap2.0pp

7-day move+1.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. New Hampshire Senate, snapshot Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT.
Day	Chris Pappas · Polymarket	Chris Pappas · Kalshi	John E. Sununu · Polymarket	John E. Sununu · Kalshi
7 days ago	85.0%	89.0%	14.0%	12.0%
6 days ago	85.5%	88.0%	14.5%	13.0%
5 days ago	85.5%	90.4%	14.5%	13.0%
4 days ago	85.5%	88.0%	13.5%	12.0%
3 days ago	85.5%	87.0%	15.0%	13.0%
2 days ago	85.5%	87.0%	15.0%	12.0%
yesterday	85.5%	87.0%	15.0%	13.0%
today	85.5%	87.5%	15.0%	12.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

qNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 92.6%7.7%Whatley

POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election

Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

North Carolina Senate

Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT
widest venue gap 0.7pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 92.5%, Kalshi 92.7%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 8.0%, Kalshi 7.3%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.7pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Roy Cooper 93% · Michael Whatley 7.5%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Roy Cooper (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$37.0K92.5%

Kalshi1.2M contracts · 92%/93%92.9%

venue gap0.4pp

7-day move0.0pp

Michael Whatley (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$58.0K8.5%

Kalshi177K contracts · 6.4%/8.2%7.6%

venue gap0.9pp

7-day move-0.5pp

Every sample behind the chart. North Carolina Senate, snapshot Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT.
Day	Roy Cooper · Polymarket	Roy Cooper · Kalshi	Michael Whatley · Polymarket	Michael Whatley · Kalshi
7 days ago	92.5%	92.9%	8.5%	7.6%
6 days ago	92.5%	92.8%	8.5%	8.0%
5 days ago	92.5%	91.7%	8.5%	8.3%
4 days ago	91.5%	91.6%	9.5%	8.3%
3 days ago	92.0%	92.6%	7.5%	8.2%
2 days ago	93.5%	92.8%	7.5%	8.3%
yesterday	92.5%	93.2%	8.0%	8.3%
today	92.5%	92.7%	8.0%	7.3%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

mOhio SenateSherrod Brown 52.5%Jon Husted 48.0%

POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election

Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).

A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Ohio Senate

Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 53.5%, Kalshi 51.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 47.5%, Kalshi 48.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Sherrod Brown 52% · Jon Husted 48%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Sherrod Brown (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$101K56.5%

Kalshi778K contracts · 51%/52%51.0%

venue gap5.5pp

7-day move-3.0pp

Jon Husted (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$74.3K44.5%

Kalshi1.4M contracts · 48%/49%49.0%

venue gap4.5pp

7-day move+3.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Ohio Senate, snapshot Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT.
Day	Sherrod Brown · Polymarket	Sherrod Brown · Kalshi	Jon Husted · Polymarket	Jon Husted · Kalshi
7 days ago	56.5%	51.0%	44.5%	49.0%
6 days ago	57.5%	53.0%	42.5%	48.0%
5 days ago	52.5%	51.0%	47.0%	49.0%
4 days ago	52.5%	51.0%	46.5%	50.0%
3 days ago	52.5%	52.0%	47.5%	49.0%
2 days ago	52.5%	52.0%	47.5%	49.0%
yesterday	53.5%	52.0%	47.5%	49.0%
today	53.5%	51.5%	47.5%	48.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

jTexas SenateTalarico51.5%Paxton50.5%books splitJames Talarico 50.5%Ken Paxton 50.0%

POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election

James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).

The only race here where the two venues do not agree on who is ahead.

The books name different leaders

Texas Senate

Each line is one book’s lead — the gap between the two candidates, signed. Zero is a tie, and the two venues are on opposite sides of it.

Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp

Texas Senate. Lead in percentage points, positive to James Talarico. Polymarket: Talarico ahead by 2 points. Kalshi: Paxton ahead by 1 point. Every day is in the table below.

today

Talarico+2%Polymarket
Paxton+1%Kalshi

Talarico51.5%Polymarket
Talarico49.5%Kalshi
Paxton49.5%Polymarket
Paxton50.5%Kalshi

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. The lead is the gap between the two, in points. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

The lead is one candidate’s price minus the other’s, at the same venue on the same day — never one book’s Tuesday against the other’s Thursday. It is drawn only where a venue priced both candidates, so a line starts late rather than being stretched across days it was never quoted over.

A day inside a tenth of a point is printed as levelrather than being rounded onto somebody’s side: on a chart whose whole subject is who is in front, a dead heat shown as a win is the one error that cannot be recovered from the drawing.

The markets: James Talarico Polymarket, Kalshi · Ken Paxton Polymarket, Kalshi

Every price behind the chart, and the lead it produces. Texas Senate, snapshot Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT.
Day	Talarico · Polymarket	Paxton · Polymarket	Lead · Polymarket	Talarico · Kalshi	Paxton · Kalshi	Lead · Kalshi
7 days ago	51.5%	49.5%	Talarico +2%	51.0%	49.0%	Talarico +2%
6 days ago	51.5%	49.5%	Talarico +2%	50.0%	50.0%	level
5 days ago	51.5%	49.5%	Talarico +2%	51.0%	51.0%	level
4 days ago	51.5%	48.5%	Talarico +3%	49.0%	51.0%	Paxton +2%
3 days ago	51.5%	48.5%	Talarico +3%	49.0%	51.0%	Paxton +2%
2 days ago	51.5%	49.5%	Talarico +2%	50.0%	52.0%	Paxton +2%
yesterday	51.5%	49.5%	Talarico +2%	50.0%	51.0%	Paxton +1%
today	51.5%	49.5%	Talarico +2%	49.5%	50.5%	Paxton +1%

Governors12

vAlaska governorWilson 35.3%Tom Begich 23.8%40.9%

POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election

Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).

Wilson holds a clear lead, but no race here has moved more this week: Begich is down about 28 points.

Two markets, one question

Alaska governor

Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT
widest venue gap 2.5pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 35.5%, Kalshi 35.0%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 25.0%, Kalshi 22.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 6–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.

Money-weighted: Bernadette Wilson 35% · Tom Begich 24%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Bernadette Wilson (R)7 days ago

Polymarket$165K26%

Kalshi34.2K contracts · 34%/36%—

venue gap—

7-day move+9.5pp

Tom Begich (D)7 days ago

Polymarket$147K53.5%

Kalshi109K contracts · 22%/23%50.0%

venue gap3.5pp

7-day move-29pp

Every sample behind the chart. Alaska governor, snapshot Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT.
Day	Bernadette Wilson · Polymarket	Bernadette Wilson · Kalshi	Tom Begich · Polymarket	Tom Begich · Kalshi
7 days ago	26.0%	—	53.5%	50.0%
6 days ago	26.0%	—	53.0%	50.0%
5 days ago	26.0%	28%	54.0%	52.0%
4 days ago	25.5%	22%	49.0%	50.0%
3 days ago	27.5%	16%	50.0%	49.0%
2 days ago	27.5%	22%	25.0%	50.0%
yesterday	35.5%	38%	25.0%	25.0%
today	35.5%	35%	25.0%	22.5%

xArizona governorKatie Hobbs 86.0%13.5%Biggs

POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election

Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

Two markets, one question

Arizona governor

Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 87.5%, Kalshi 84.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 12.5%, Kalshi 14.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Katie Hobbs 85% · Andy Biggs 14%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Katie Hobbs (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$30.8K87.5%

Kalshi285K contracts · 84%/85%88.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move0.0pp

Andy Biggs (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$35.9K12.5%

Kalshi219K contracts · 14%/15%15.0%

venue gap2.5pp

7-day move0.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Arizona governor, snapshot Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT.
Day	Katie Hobbs · Polymarket	Katie Hobbs · Kalshi	Andy Biggs · Polymarket	Andy Biggs · Kalshi
7 days ago	87.5%	88.0%	12.5%	15.0%
6 days ago	87.0%	87.0%	13.0%	15.0%
5 days ago	87.0%	87.0%	13.0%	15.0%
4 days ago	87.0%	85.0%	13.5%	15.0%
3 days ago	87.5%	88.0%	13.0%	16.0%
2 days ago	87.5%	84.0%	12.5%	16.0%
yesterday	87.5%	87.0%	12.0%	16.0%
today	87.5%	84.5%	12.5%	14.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

abFlorida governorByron Donalds 82.0%19.5%Jolly

POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election

Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).

Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Florida governor

Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 82.5%, Kalshi 81.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 18.5%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Byron Donalds 82% · David Jolly 20%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Byron Donalds (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$16.4K82.5%

Kalshi141K contracts · 81%/82%82.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move0.0pp

David Jolly (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$21.7K17%

Kalshi150K contracts · 19%/22%20%

venue gap3.0pp

7-day move+1.5pp

Every sample behind the chart. Florida governor, snapshot Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT.
Day	Byron Donalds · Polymarket	Byron Donalds · Kalshi	David Jolly · Polymarket	David Jolly · Kalshi
7 days ago	82.5%	82.0%	17.0%	20.0%
6 days ago	82.5%	83.0%	18.0%	21.0%
5 days ago	82.5%	81.0%	18.0%	23.0%
4 days ago	82.5%	80.0%	18.5%	20.0%
3 days ago	83.5%	81.0%	17.5%	21.0%
2 days ago	82.5%	81.0%	17.5%	22.0%
yesterday	82.5%	82.0%	18.5%	21.0%
today	82.5%	81.5%	18.5%	20.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

oGeorgia governorKeisha Lance Bottoms 59.5%Rick Jackson 41.3%

POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election

Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).

Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead.

Two markets, one question

Georgia governor

Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 59.5%, Kalshi 59.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 41.0%, Kalshi 41.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Keisha Lance Bottoms 60% · Rick Jackson 41%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$31.0K64%

Kalshi261K contracts · 59%/60%61%

venue gap3.0pp

7-day move-4.5pp

Rick Jackson (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$36.1K36.5%

Kalshi333K contracts · 41%/42%40.0%

venue gap3.5pp

7-day move+4.5pp

Every sample behind the chart. Georgia governor, snapshot Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT.
Day	Keisha Lance Bottoms · Polymarket	Keisha Lance Bottoms · Kalshi	Rick Jackson · Polymarket	Rick Jackson · Kalshi
7 days ago	64.0%	61.0%	36.5%	40.0%
6 days ago	63.5%	61.0%	37.0%	42.0%
5 days ago	62.0%	60.0%	37.0%	41.0%
4 days ago	62.5%	60.0%	37.5%	42.0%
3 days ago	59.5%	60.0%	40.5%	42.0%
2 days ago	60.0%	61.0%	41.0%	42.0%
yesterday	59.0%	62.0%	41.0%	42.0%
today	59.5%	59.5%	41.0%	41.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

uIowa governorRob Sand 75.5%Zach Lahn 24.0%

POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election

Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about three points in a week.

Two markets, one question

Iowa governor

Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT
widest venue gap 4.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 73.5%, Kalshi 77.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 25.5%, Kalshi 22.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Rob Sand 77% · Zach Lahn 23%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Rob Sand (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$27.4K72.5%

Kalshi193K contracts · 77%/78%72.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move+1.0pp

Zach Lahn (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$39.8K26%

Kalshi216K contracts · 22%/23%28%

venue gap2.0pp

7-day move-0.5pp

Every sample behind the chart. Iowa governor, snapshot Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT.
Day	Rob Sand · Polymarket	Rob Sand · Kalshi	Zach Lahn · Polymarket	Zach Lahn · Kalshi
7 days ago	72.5%	72.0%	26.0%	28.0%
6 days ago	72.0%	72.0%	26.5%	28.0%
5 days ago	72.0%	72.0%	26.5%	28.0%
4 days ago	72.5%	74.0%	27.5%	27.0%
3 days ago	75.0%	75.0%	26.0%	26.0%
2 days ago	77.5%	78.0%	23.5%	24.0%
yesterday	73.5%	77.0%	25.5%	23.0%
today	73.5%	77.5%	25.5%	22.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

wMichigan governorJocelyn Benson 87%James 13%

POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election

Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side lost about three points in a week.

Two markets, one question

Michigan governor

Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 88%, Kalshi 86%; John James (R): Polymarket 13%, Kalshi 13%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Jocelyn Benson 87% · John James 13%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Jocelyn Benson (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$47.5K84%

Kalshi71.8K contracts · 85%/87%86%

venue gap2.0pp

7-day move+4.0pp

John James (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$151K15%

Kalshi115K contracts · 12%/14%17%

venue gap2.0pp

7-day move-2.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Michigan governor, snapshot Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT.
Day	Jocelyn Benson · Polymarket	Jocelyn Benson · Kalshi	John James · Polymarket	John James · Kalshi
7 days ago	84.0%	86%	15.0%	17%
6 days ago	85.5%	84%	15.0%	16%
5 days ago	85.5%	84%	15.0%	16%
4 days ago	85.5%	88%	15.0%	17%
3 days ago	86.0%	88%	15.0%	14%
2 days ago	88.0%	85%	12.5%	15%
yesterday	88.0%	87%	13.0%	14%
today	88.0%	86%	13.0%	13%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

pNevada governorJoe Lombardo 57.8%Aaron Ford 43.8%

POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election

Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).

Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Republican side holds a clear lead after the Democratic side gained about five points in a week.

Two markets, one question

Nevada governor

Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 57.0%, Kalshi 58.5%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 43.5%, Kalshi 44.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Joe Lombardo 58% · Aaron Ford 44%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Joe Lombardo (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$48.1K63%

Kalshi221K contracts · 58%/59%63%

venue gap0.0pp

7-day move-6.0pp

Aaron Ford (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$21.9K36.5%

Kalshi461K contracts · 42%/46%41.0%

venue gap4.5pp

7-day move+7.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Nevada governor, snapshot Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT.
Day	Joe Lombardo · Polymarket	Joe Lombardo · Kalshi	Aaron Ford · Polymarket	Aaron Ford · Kalshi
7 days ago	63.0%	63.0%	36.5%	41%
6 days ago	62.5%	62.0%	37.5%	36%
5 days ago	63.5%	62.0%	36.0%	40%
4 days ago	60.5%	61.0%	38.5%	37%
3 days ago	57.5%	59.0%	43.0%	44%
2 days ago	55.5%	61.0%	43.5%	40%
yesterday	57.0%	59.0%	43.5%	45%
today	57.0%	58.5%	43.5%	44%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

zNew York governorKathy Hochul 94.58%Blakeman 5.40%

POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election

Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

New York governor

Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT
widest venue gap 0.2pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 94.50%, Kalshi 94.65%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 5.5%, Kalshi 5.3%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.2pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Kathy Hochul 95% · Bruce Blakeman 5.3%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Kathy Hochul (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$49.0K93.5%

Kalshi244K contracts · 94%/95%93.5%

venue gap0.0pp

7-day move+1.0pp

Bruce Blakeman (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$49.1K6%

Kalshi550K contracts · 4.9%/5.7%8%

venue gap2.0pp

7-day move-0.5pp

Every sample behind the chart. New York governor, snapshot Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT.
Day	Kathy Hochul · Polymarket	Kathy Hochul · Kalshi	Bruce Blakeman · Polymarket	Bruce Blakeman · Kalshi
7 days ago	93.5%	93.50%	6.0%	8.0%
6 days ago	93.5%	93.50%	6.0%	7.9%
5 days ago	94.0%	93.40%	6.0%	7.9%
4 days ago	94.5%	93.70%	5.5%	8.0%
3 days ago	94.5%	93.30%	5.5%	8.0%
2 days ago	94.5%	95.10%	5.5%	5.6%
yesterday	94.5%	95.40%	5.5%	5.8%
today	94.5%	94.65%	5.5%	5.3%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

hOhio governorAmy Acton 50.0%Vivek Ramaswamy 48.3%

POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election

Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).

Ohio is choosing a new governor, and it is a dead heat — the two sides are priced within two points of each other.

Two markets, one question

Ohio governor

Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 49.5%, Kalshi 50.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 48.0%, Kalshi 48.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Amy Acton 50% · Vivek Ramaswamy 48%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Amy Acton (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$75.6K48.5%

Kalshi412K contracts · 50%/51%50.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move+1.0pp

Vivek Ramaswamy (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$93.7K50.5%

Kalshi635K contracts · 48%/49%49.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move-2.5pp

Every sample behind the chart. Ohio governor, snapshot Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT.
Day	Amy Acton · Polymarket	Amy Acton · Kalshi	Vivek Ramaswamy · Polymarket	Vivek Ramaswamy · Kalshi
7 days ago	48.5%	50.0%	50.5%	49.0%
6 days ago	48.5%	51.0%	50.5%	50.0%
5 days ago	48.0%	50.0%	48.5%	46.0%
4 days ago	48.0%	50.0%	49.5%	48.0%
3 days ago	47.5%	51.0%	48.5%	49.0%
2 days ago	48.0%	51.0%	48.5%	49.0%
yesterday	49.5%	51.0%	48.0%	48.0%
today	49.5%	50.5%	48.0%	48.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

aaPennsylvania governorJosh Shapiro 95.2%Garrity 4.0%

POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election

Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

Two markets, one question

Pennsylvania governor

Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT
widest venue gap 0.9pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 95.5%, Kalshi 94.8%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 4.5%, Kalshi 3.6%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.9pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 3–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.

Money-weighted: Josh Shapiro 95% · Stacy Garrity 3.7%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Josh Shapiro (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$7.3K95.5%

Kalshi68.0K contracts · 93%/97%—

venue gap—

7-day move0.0pp

Stacy Garrity (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$21.9K5.5%

Kalshi352K contracts · 2.8%/4.4%—

venue gap—

7-day move-1.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Pennsylvania governor, snapshot Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT.
Day	Josh Shapiro · Polymarket	Josh Shapiro · Kalshi	Stacy Garrity · Polymarket	Stacy Garrity · Kalshi
7 days ago	95.5%	—	5.5%	—
6 days ago	95.5%	—	5.5%	—
5 days ago	95.5%	—	5.5%	—
4 days ago	95.5%	—	5.5%	—
3 days ago	95.5%	—	5.0%	—
2 days ago	95.5%	95.5%	5.5%	6.7%
yesterday	95.5%	95.6%	4.5%	4.0%
today	95.5%	94.8%	4.5%	3.6%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

yTexas governorGreg Abbott 89.0%11.8%Hinojosa

POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election

Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).

The Republican side holds a commanding lead after gaining about four points in a week.

Two markets, one question

Texas governor

Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 88.5%, Kalshi 89.5%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 12.0%, Kalshi 11.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Greg Abbott 89% · Gina Hinojosa 12%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Greg Abbott (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$25.7K84.3%

Kalshi129K contracts · 89%/90%86.0%

venue gap1.7pp

7-day move+4.2pp

Gina Hinojosa (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$32.1K16%

Kalshi534K contracts · 11%/12%15%

venue gap1.0pp

7-day move-4.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Texas governor, snapshot Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT.
Day	Greg Abbott · Polymarket	Greg Abbott · Kalshi	Gina Hinojosa · Polymarket	Gina Hinojosa · Kalshi
7 days ago	84.30%	86.0%	16.0%	15.0%
6 days ago	84.65%	87.0%	16.0%	15.0%
5 days ago	84.60%	87.0%	15.5%	15.0%
4 days ago	85.85%	87.0%	15.0%	14.0%
3 days ago	86.30%	88.0%	14.5%	14.0%
2 days ago	85.70%	86.0%	14.5%	16.0%
yesterday	88.50%	90.0%	12.0%	11.0%
today	88.50%	89.5%	12.0%	11.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

nWisconsin governorDavid Crowley 76.0%Tom Tiffany 24.5%

POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election

David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).

An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Wisconsin governor

Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 77.5%, Kalshi 74.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 23.5%, Kalshi 25.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: David Crowley 75% · Tom Tiffany 25%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

David Crowley (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$114K77.5%

Kalshi406K contracts · 74%/75%77.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move0.0pp

Tom Tiffany (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$185K23.5%

Kalshi442K contracts · 25%/26%26.0%

venue gap2.5pp

7-day move0.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Wisconsin governor, snapshot Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT.
Day	David Crowley · Polymarket	David Crowley · Kalshi	Tom Tiffany · Polymarket	Tom Tiffany · Kalshi
7 days ago	77.5%	77.0%	23.5%	26.0%
6 days ago	76.5%	73.0%	23.5%	27.0%
5 days ago	75.5%	72.0%	23.5%	29.0%
4 days ago	76.5%	74.0%	23.5%	28.0%
3 days ago	77.5%	75.0%	23.5%	26.0%
2 days ago	77.5%	75.0%	23.5%	26.0%
yesterday	77.5%	74.0%	23.5%	25.0%
today	77.5%	74.5%	23.5%	25.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Prices captured Aug 20, 6:46 AM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.

Trump declares an "economic D-Day" on Iran as Hormuz traffic runs 85% below normal

Trump cut the U.S.–South Korea war drills in half without telling Seoul first

UAE cuts off all trade with Iran, closing the gateway that handles a third of Iranian imports

Fed held rates 9-3, and the minutes show the hawks were not just the three who voted no

Trump pauses 50% Canada tariff two hours before it hits, buying three days

Federal debt tops $40 trillion, adding the last trillion in under five months

Aug 202026

Executive summary6 stories

News news6

News news6 stories

1.) WASHINGTON EXAMINER: Trump declares an "economic D-Day" on Iran as Hormuz traffic runs 85% below normal

Two days after the 60-day truce expired with no deal, Trump threatened any country whose banks, airports or companies help Tehran. Only 10 to 12 ships a day crossed the strait his blockade was meant to reopen.

RELATEDIraq clears a route to export crude around the Strait of Hormuz starting Sept. 1

SEMI-RELATEDJPMorgan says every extra month Hormuz stays shut adds $7 to $8 a barrel to Brent

2.) THE HILL: Trump cut the U.S.–South Korea war drills in half without telling Seoul first

Ulchi Freedom Shield goes from 11 days to five, ending Friday, Aug. 21 instead of Aug. 27, after Trump called the exercise insulting to Kim Jong Un.

SEMI-RELATEDNorth Korea told Washington in July 2025 that no amount of talking will end its nuclear program

3.) NBC NEWS: UAE cuts off all trade with Iran, closing the gateway that handles a third of Iranian imports

Abu Dhabi halted trade, commerce and all financial transactions with Tehran on Tuesday, Aug. 18, after saying two Iranian ballistic missiles fell into the Persian Gulf; Iran denies firing them.

RELATEDStrait of Hormuz traffic has fallen from 130 ships a day to as few as zero on recent weekends

SEMI-RELATEDIran's supreme leader has installed a hardliner opposed to concessions atop the national security council

4.) THE HILL: Fed held rates 9-3, and the minutes show the hawks were not just the three who voted no

Minutes from the July 28-29 meeting, released Wednesday, Aug. 19, say "many participants" thought a rate increase would be needed if inflation stays high.

SEMI-RELATEDTraders put September at roughly 69 percent no-change, with a hike as a 30 percent tail

5.) BBC NEWS: Trump pauses 50% Canada tariff two hours before it hits, buying three days

The duty covered roughly $20.2 billion of Canadian goods, and was set to start at 12:01 a.m. Wednesday, Aug. 19; the new deadline is Saturday, Aug. 22, and no signed text exists yet.

SEMI-RELATEDUSMCA review opens with Canada seeking guarantees the pact still binds Washington

6.) THE NEW YORK TIMES: Federal debt tops $40 trillion, adding the last trillion in under five months

Treasury's Tuesday, Aug. 18 tally put gross debt at $40.047 trillion — $32.3 trillion of it owed to outside investors, $7.7 trillion owed by the government to itself.

SEMI-RELATEDCBO: One Big Beautiful Bill Act adds $4.7 trillion to deficits, tariffs recover about $3 trillion

Quick bites28ShowHide

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Trump picks White House aide Heidi Overton for FDA, and Cassidy is already balking

Appeals court keeps immigration agents away from 1,400 houses of worship in 33 states

A woman told the House Ethics Committee that Rep. Jimmy Gomez sexually assaulted her

Judge blocks HHS teen-pregnancy grant changes but leaves 53 cancellations in place

Teen Pregnancy Prevention Program grants after HHS cuts

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