Political Guyentist
Political GuyentistSunday, August 30, 2026
33 stories·3 news2 not news6 briefs22 elections·0 contested·0 cut
1world

Russian drone hits ammunition depot near Kyiv, killing 38; four remain missing

The toll rose from 37 on Saturday to 38 on Sunday; 20 people were injured, including two children.

A Russian drone struck a storage facility in Myla on Friday, Aug. 28, triggering ammunition explosions and fires that spread into nearby homes. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported the updated toll on Sunday. Rescuers are still searching for four missing people and clearing unexploded ammunition.

ContextZelenskyy said the site held artillery shells, mines, drones and other ammunition. Ukrainian authorities opened a criminal investigation into storing explosives near civilians. The investigation concerns the damage caused by the storage site as well as the Russian attack; responsibility for the storage decisions has not been established.

THE KYIV INDEPENDENT3 sources

2us

Warsh says the Fed may need to raise rates because inflation has not eased

The next decision is in mid-September; July’s 9–3 vote kept rates at 3.5%–3.75%.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said Friday at Jackson Hole that underlying inflation had not meaningfully improved. He did not commit to a September increase. Officials will receive another price report shortly before their next meeting; three dissented in July because they wanted a quarter-point rise.

ContextWarsh said prices had risen at least 3% over the past year for more than half the goods and services tracked by the government, compared with roughly one-third before the pandemic. Warsh cited that breadth as evidence that inflation extends beyond gasoline. A Fed increase would not automatically raise mortgage rates: AP reported that longer-term Treasury yields, which strongly influence mortgages, barely rose after the speech. [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september-762) traders priced a quarter-point increase at 47.5% and no change at 51.5%, as of 7:55 AM CDT on Aug. 30. These contracts resolve from the Fed’s Sept. 15–16 meeting decision; they are market prices, not polling or a guarantee.

AP VIA PBS3 sources

3world

Niger’s government says it regained control after soldiers attacked the palace and airbase

The reported mutiny targeted the military government that seized power in July 2023.

Mutinous soldiers attacked key sites in Niamey, Niger’s capital, early Saturday, including the presidential palace and Military Airbase 101, Premium Times reported. State broadcasting briefly went offline. Defence Minister Salifou Mody said loyalist troops had responded and restored control. A verified casualty total was not available in the reporting reviewed for this issue.

ContextGeneral Abdourahamane Tiani took power by overthrowing elected President Mohamed Bazoum in July 2023. His government promised greater security, but Niger continues to face jihadist insurgencies. This attack was reported as a mutiny by soldiers, not another confirmed jihadist assault.

PREMIUM TIMES1 source

4not newsusImmigration enforcement

Judge strikes down provisions allowing speech-based deportation of noncitizens living in the U.S.

The decision covers people already living in the U.S., not the separate rules for entering the country.

Judge Noël Wise ruled Friday that provisions used to revoke visas and deport noncitizens for protected speech violated the First and Fifth Amendments. The Stanford Daily and a student visa holder sued after students stopped writing, declined assignments or sought anonymity because they feared removal.

ContextThe ruling strikes at the legal provisions themselves, not only individual arrests: it rejects the broad power to punish speech the secretary of state considers harmful to foreign policy. It does not erase other lawful grounds for deportation. AP reported Saturday that the Justice Department had not responded to its request for comment.

AP VIA PBS2 sources

5not newsusThe Iran war

Military spouses and support-group leader describe income, childcare and return-plan disruptions during Iran-war deployments

Reuters interviewed spouses and a support-group leader six months into the war.

Courtney Sanders, who leads Blue Star Families’ Chicagoland chapter, told Reuters that sudden National Guard deployments can remove a household’s main civilian paycheck. Military spouses described covering school pickups, supporting distressed children and waiting for uncertain return dates. The Pentagon said it would provide support and stability.

ContextBlue Star Families has expanded online resources, meetings and peer support. Reuters cited a survey of about 200 active-duty military families in early March in which 81% reported increased stress. That small, early-war survey is historical context, not an August estimate for all military families.

REUTERS VIA THE BUSINESS STANDARD1 source

Sunday · The daily brief

Aug 302026

5 leads28 briefs7 min

Listen

AI narration

The whole issue in a few minutes · 2:44 at 1×

Transcript

Executive summary5 stories

News news3

  1. Russian drone hits ammunition depot near Kyiv, killing 38; four remain missingThe toll rose from 37 on Saturday to 38 on Sunday; 20 people were injured, including two children.
  2. Warsh says the Fed may need to raise rates because inflation has not easedThe next decision is in mid-September; July’s 9–3 vote kept rates at 3.5%–3.75%.
  3. Niger’s government says it regained control after soldiers attacked the palace and airbaseThe reported mutiny targeted the military government that seized power in July 2023.

Not news news2

  1. Judge strikes down provisions allowing speech-based deportation of noncitizens living in the U.S.The decision covers people already living in the U.S., not the separate rules for entering the country.
  2. Military spouses and support-group leader describe income, childcare and return-plan disruptions during Iran-war deploymentsReuters interviewed spouses and a support-group leader six months into the war.

News news3 stories

Ongoing4 earlier updates

This story has run 5 times over 4 days, starting Aug 26.

  1. CIA chief Ratcliffe makes rare Moscow visit
  2. CIA chief reportedly warned Moscow against a limited Russian attack on NATO
  3. CIA chief secretly met Russian intelligence officials in Moscow
  4. [UPDATE] CIA chief told Moscow to end the Ukraine war before Russia’s military and economy worsen
  5. Russian drone hits ammunition depot near Kyiv, killing 38; four remain missing — this issue

1.) THE KYIV INDEPENDENT: Russian drone hits ammunition depot near Kyiv, killing 38; four remain missing

The toll rose from 37 on Saturday to 38 on Sunday; 20 people were injured, including two children.

RELATED

Ukraine says Russia is planning attacks toward Kyiv and Chernihiv, but no new assault force has formed. Presidential aide Pavlo Palisa told reporters that intelligence from several sources indicated Russian offensive planning. He said Ukraine had prepared defensive responses, but had not detected a new offensive grouping in either direction. Planning is not evidence that an assault has begun.

2.) AP VIA PBS: Warsh says the Fed may need to raise rates because inflation has not eased

The next decision is in mid-September; July’s 9–3 vote kept rates at 3.5%–3.75%.

3.) PREMIUM TIMES: Niger’s government says it regained control after soldiers attacked the palace and airbase

The reported mutiny targeted the military government that seized power in July 2023.

Quick bites28

  1. [UPDATE] DHS deported Milo Yiannopoulos to Britain after ICE said he overstayed his visa.

    NPR VIA GPB

    DHS told NPR he was deported Friday, a day after ICE arrested him. ICE said an immigration judge ordered his removal July 22 after he missed a hearing. He had publicly urged the deportation of millions of people.

    Ongoing3

    This story has run 4 times over 13 days, starting Aug 17.

    1. Centcom says the Lincoln, 260 days at sea, has among the Navy's fewest mental health cases
    2. ICE detained deployed Navy sailor’s father after roughly 20 years in US
    3. ICE releases sailor’s father
    4. [UPDATE] DHS deported Milo Yiannopoulos to Britain after ICE said he overstayed his visa. — this issue

  2. Former White House teleprompter operator must repay $107,539 and pay a $65,000 fine for betting with advance speech text.

    CFTC

    The CFTC said Gabriel Perez used confidential drafts to bet on words Trump would say between December 2025 and February 2026. The order also bans him from trading for three years; his cooperation reduced the civil penalty.

  3. U.S. deported 12 Afghans to the Central African Republic, including a man protected from return to Afghanistan, advocates say.

    AP VIA HAWAII PUBLIC RADIO

    His lawyer said his brothers had worked with the U.S. military and that a judge protected him from return to Afghanistan because he feared Taliban persecution. AP reported that Saturday’s flight was the second U.S. deportation flight to the Central African Republic since June. The protection order barred his return to Afghanistan; U.S. authorities instead sent him to the Central African Republic.

  4. Appeals court set aside Georgia’s voting-map ruling and ordered a new review under stricter racial-discrimination rules.

    11TH CIRCUIT OPINION

    The 11th Circuit’s Aug. 25 decision did not declare Georgia’s maps lawful. It sent the case back after the Supreme Court changed the Voting Rights Act test: challengers must support a strong inference of intentional racial discrimination and separate racial effects from partisan choices.

    Ongoing3

    This story has run 4 times over 4 days, starting Aug 26.

    1. USPS violated a court order to finalize Trump’s mail-ballot rule; judge allows publication
    2. Judge clears Trump’s USPS mail-ballot rule; 24 states and D.C. sue hours later
    3. [UPDATE] Judge blocks USPS from rejecting noncompliant mail ballots for 14 days; DOJ appeals
    4. Appeals court set aside Georgia’s voting-map ruling and ordered a new review under stricter racial-discrimination rules. — this issue
2 more quick bitesSame day, same run — headlines only until you open one

  1. Walmart will pay $50 million to settle federal claims that its pharmacies filled invalid opioid prescriptions.

    JUSTICE DEPARTMENT

    The Justice Department said the agreement also requires a reporting hotline, monitoring of pharmacy dispensing and review of suspect prescribers. The settlement resolves allegations, not a finding of liability; the lawsuit was filed in 2020.

  2. Gang in Haiti frees six children and seven women kidnapped in Kenscoff, UNICEF says.

    UNICEF

    Kenscoff is a hillside community near Port-au-Prince, Haiti’s capital. AP reported that more than 50 people were abducted in the Aug. 23 attack. UNICEF said local leaders helped secure the releases; three of the freed children were under two.

Elections22 races

Congressional control

Who ends up holding each chamber

Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT
7-day replay

U.S. House: chance of Democratic control of the House, Polymarket 90%, Kalshi 85%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 51%, Kalshi 49%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

U.S. House — Democratic control7 days ago · Democrats favoured
89%85%chance of Democratic control of the House · 3.5pp apart
U.S. House: chance of Democratic control of the House. 7 days ago, Polymarket 89% and Kalshi 85%. Today it stands at Polymarket 90% and Kalshi 85%.
U.S. Senate — Democrats take it7 days ago · Republicans favoured
50%46%chance Democrats take it · 3.5pp apart
U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. 7 days ago, Polymarket 50% and Kalshi 46%. Today it stands at Polymarket 51% and Kalshi 49%.
7 days ago
How to read thisthe contract, the key, and the week panel

Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take it. This desk has not established who is defending the House, so that bar stays in the market’s own words and claims nothing about who would be losing it. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.

  • two venues, priced separately
  • shaded = how far apart they are
  • 50% — control flips here
  • the last 7 days, on its own scale
  • Polymarket, solid
  • Kalshi, dashed

Both lines in a week panel are the same contract, priced by two venues — not one line per party. Its colour is whose chance the bar is measuring, which is why a panel can be blue while the verdict beside it reads Republicans favoured.

3 of 22 races. Open one, or all of them — every race is on the page either way.

  • jAlaska SenateMary Peltola 64.5%Dan Sullivan 36.0%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election

    Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska Senate

    Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 65%, Kalshi 64%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 35.5%, Kalshi 36.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • rGeorgia SenateJon Ossoff 92.97%Collins 6.97%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election

    Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia Senate

    Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT
    widest venue gap 1.2pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 93.50%, Kalshi 92.45%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 6.35%, Kalshi 7.60%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.2pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • kIowa SenateAshley Hinson 61.0%Josh Turek 39.3%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election

    Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa Senate

    Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT
    widest venue gap 2.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 60.5%, Kalshi 61.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 40.5%, Kalshi 38.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

The other 19 races22 consequential races · Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT · markets, not polling

Senate7 of 10

  • hMaine SenateTroy Jackson 69.5%Susan Collins 30.8%

    POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election

    Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).

    Two markets, one question

    Maine Senate

    Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT
    widest venue gap 0.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 69.5%, Kalshi 69.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 31.0%, Kalshi 30.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • lMichigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed 64.0%Mike Rogers 36.5%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election

    Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan Senate

    Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 64.5%, Kalshi 63.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 35.5%, Kalshi 37.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • sNebraska SenateRicketts vs. Osborn

    POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election

    Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).

    Two markets, one question

    Nebraska Senate

    Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 70.5%, Kalshi 69.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • tNew Hampshire Democratic Senate primaryNew Hampshire SenatePappas leads Democratic primary markets

    POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — Democratic primary

    Chris Pappas (D) leads Karishma Manzur (D) in the nomination markets. The nomination remains unresolved; these are not general-election win odds. Current prices and the rest of the field are in the dated disclosure below.

    Two markets, one question

    New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary

    Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT
    widest venue gap 1.4pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 93.00%, Kalshi 94.45%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.4pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • qNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 91.35%8.88%Whatley

    POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election

    Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).

    Two markets, one question

    North Carolina Senate

    Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT
    widest venue gap 0.3pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 91.5%, Kalshi 91.2%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 9.00%, Kalshi 8.75%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.3pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • mOhio SenateSherrod Brown 54.5%Jon Husted 45.5%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election

    Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio Senate

    Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT
    widest venue gap 0.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 54.5%, Kalshi 54.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 45.5%, Kalshi 45.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • iTexas SenateJames Talarico 50.0%Ken Paxton 50.0%

    POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election

    Ken Paxton (R) faces James Talarico (D).

    Two markets, one question

    Texas Senate

    Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 49.5%, Kalshi 50.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 49.5%, Kalshi 50.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Governors12

  • vAlaska governorBernadette Wilson 35.50%63.6%Begich 0.93%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election

    Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska governor

    Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT
    widest venue gap 0.9pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 35.5%, Kalshi 35.5%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 1.35%, Kalshi 0.50%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.9pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • xArizona governorone bookKatie Hobbs 87.5%13.5%Biggs

    POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election

    Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).

    Two markets, one question

    Arizona governor

    Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT
    one venue only
    • Kalshi, dashed

    Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Kalshi 87.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Kalshi 13.5%. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • abFlorida governorone bookByron Donalds 83.5%Jolly 18.0%

    POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election

    Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).

    Two markets, one question

    Florida governor

    Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT
    one venue only
    • Kalshi, dashed

    Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Kalshi 83.5%; David Jolly (D): Kalshi 18%. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • oGeorgia governorKeisha Lance Bottoms 59.3%Rick Jackson 39.8%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election

    Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia governor

    Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 59.0%, Kalshi 59.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 39.0%, Kalshi 40.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • uIowa governorRob Sand 74.5%Lahn 26.0%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election

    Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa governor

    Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 74.5%, Kalshi 74.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 25.5%, Kalshi 26.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • wMichigan governorone bookJocelyn Benson 88.6%11.5%James

    POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election

    Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan governor

    Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT
    one venue only
    • Kalshi, dashed

    Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Kalshi 88.6%; John James (R): Kalshi 11.5%. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • pNevada governorJoe Lombardo 59.3%Aaron Ford 41.0%

    POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election

    Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).

    Two markets, one question

    Nevada governor

    Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT
    widest venue gap 0.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 59.5%, Kalshi 59.0%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 41%, Kalshi 41%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • zNew York governorone bookKathy Hochul 94.25%Blakeman 6.05%

    POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election

    Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).

    Two markets, one question

    New York governor

    Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT
    one venue only
    • Kalshi, dashed

    New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Kalshi 94.25%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Kalshi 6.05%. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • gOhio governorAmy Acton 55.0%Vivek Ramaswamy 44.5%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election

    Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio governor

    Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 53.5%, Kalshi 56.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 45.5%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aaPennsylvania governorone bookJosh Shapiro 97.2%Garrity 3.6%

    POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election

    Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).

    Two markets, one question

    Pennsylvania governor

    Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT
    one venue only
    • Kalshi, dashed

    Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Kalshi 97.2%; Stacy Garrity (R): Kalshi 3.6%. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • yTexas governorone bookGreg Abbott 85.5%15.0%Hinojosa

    POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election

    Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).

    Two markets, one question

    Texas governor

    Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT
    one venue only
    • Kalshi, dashed

    Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Kalshi 85.5%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Kalshi 15%. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • nWisconsin governorone bookDavid Crowley 79.5%Tiffany 20.5%

    POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election

    David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).

    Two markets, one question

    Wisconsin governor

    Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT
    one venue only
    • Kalshi, dashed

    Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Kalshi 79.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Kalshi 20.5%. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Prices captured Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.

Not news news2 stories

Ongoing2 earlier updates

This story has run 3 times over 2 days, starting Aug 28.

  1. Iran war’s $35.7 billion cost—over half the Pentagon’s $67 billion emergency request—pushes the Navy to shift money from payroll
  2. Judge permanently blocks Pentagon’s Anthropic blacklist as unconstitutional
  3. Judge strikes down provisions allowing speech-based deportation of noncitizens living in the U.S. — this issue

4.) AP VIA PBS: Judge strikes down provisions allowing speech-based deportation of noncitizens living in the U.S.

The decision covers people already living in the U.S., not the separate rules for entering the country.

5.) REUTERS VIA THE BUSINESS STANDARD: Military spouses and support-group leader describe income, childcare and return-plan disruptions during Iran-war deployments

Reuters interviewed spouses and a support-group leader six months into the war.