U.S. destroys two Iranian rocket launchers loaded to mine the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at bases in Jordan, all intercepted

The first known U.S. military action inside Iran since July 29 hit launchers set to re-seed the shipping lane the Navy finished clearing a week earlier.

On Sunday, Aug. 30, U.S. forces struck two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island, at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. officials said Revolutionary Guard personnel were preparing to fire rockets carrying sea mines, explosive charges placed in water to damage passing ships. Iranian outlets reported two people killed and two wounded. Iran then fired eight ballistic missiles at U.S. bases in Jordan. Jordan said its air defenses intercepted all eight. U.S. officials reported zero impacts, damage or casualties. The strike was the first known U.S. military action inside Iran since July 29, 2026.

BackgroundWhat clearing the lane did not take away from Iran3 facts

CENTCOM said in May that strikes had destroyed more than 90% of Iran's prewar stock of roughly 8,000 sea mines, leaving fewer than about 800 of that estimate.
A separate assessment found Iran still holds 80% to 90% of the small boats and miniature submarines that actually plant mines; the launchers are the replaceable part.
War-risk insurance quoted just before the strike ran about 10% of a ship's value — $15 million on a $150 million tanker, against roughly $375,000, or 0.25%, before the war.

UpdateWhat changed since Aug. 29

The Aug. 29 issue reported nearly a month without large U.S. strikes as the administration leaned on weekly sanctions. That pause ended Sunday, Aug. 30: U.S. forces struck two rocket launchers on Larak Island that officials said were being readied to re-mine the strait, and Iran answered with eight ballistic missiles at U.S. bases in Jordan, all intercepted.

U.S.-led venture gets 25-year rights to 17 Venezuelan oil fields and access to 65 billion barrels

The project targets more than 1.5 million barrels a day and more than $100 billion in investment, with no start date or production schedule made public.

A new company, majority-owned by the U.S. government, has won 25-year rights to develop 17 oil fields in Venezuela. The fields hold 65 billion barrels of proven crude — about 21% of the roughly 303 billion barrels Venezuela held as of 2023, the largest proven reserve base of any country. The oil may eventually supply Gulf Coast refineries, though Venezuela's degraded oil infrastructure makes near-term relief at the pump uncertain. Ted Cruz (Sen-R Texas) said on Sunday, Aug. 30 that the deal could benefit jobs and gasoline prices "over the long term," while arguing that Venezuela should hold free and fair elections no later than the middle of 2027.

What this deal covers, and what it leaves outCaracas projects $209.3 billion in royalties and taxes over the life of the deal, using a $65-per-barrel reference price.5 details

Caracas projects $209.3 billion in royalties and taxes over the life of the deal, using a $65-per-barrel reference price.
That works out to roughly $19 of every barrel for the Venezuelan state, or about 29% of that $65 price. It is the government's cut of the money coming in, not a share of the profits, and no profit split has been disclosed.
The remaining $46 has to cover drilling, operating costs and the venture's return; how that divides between Washington and the private operator has not been published.
The U.S. government is the majority owner of the new company, and that company, not the state oil firm PDVSA, holds the rights to develop the fields. Venezuela keeps ownership of the oil underground.
No company has publicly committed to the advertised private investment, and neither government has named the investors.

U.S. national defense expenditures

Red take

Gulf Coast refineries need heavy crude and currently buy it from suppliers Washington would rather not enrich; 25-year rights to 17 fields and access to 65 billion barrels put that supply under contract instead. The honest cost is time — Venezuela's degraded infrastructure makes near-term relief at the pump uncertain, and the 1.5 million barrel target may never arrive. What it buys is leverage priced in decades: Caracas gets paid only while it keeps producing, which is what gives Cruz's demand for elections by mid-2027 any force.

Blue take

Caracas discloses its side — about $19 of every barrel, 29% of a $65 reference price — while Washington has not published how the other $46 splits between the government and a private operator no company has yet agreed to be. That asymmetry matters because the target of more than 1.5 million barrels a day exceeds what all of Venezuela pumped in July, so the risk of the shortfall lands on public books before any pump-price relief lands on households.

Ongoing2 earlier updates4 days

This story has run 3 times over 4 days, starting Aug 27.

Aug 27Meta agrees to pay up to $17.1 billion and limit teens’ Facebook and Instagram use
Aug 28Meta accepts youth-use limits for at least five years and up to $18 billion to settle teen-addiction claims
Aug 31Judge approves Meta settlement capping teen Facebook and Instagram use at two hours a day — this issue

FOX NEWSMeta teen settlement

Judge approves Meta settlement capping teen Facebook and Instagram use at two hours a day

Meta has six months to turn on the default limit, overnight blocks and stronger age checks; it admits no wrongdoing and owes Texas $1 billion.

A judge approved Meta's child-safety settlement on Thursday, Aug. 27, 2026. The agreement resolves a case brought by 47 state attorneys general. Meta must make a combined two-hour daily limit the default for teen accounts across Facebook and Instagram. It must also restrict overnight access, remove visible like counts and strengthen age checks. Most major rules are due within six months, by Feb. 27, 2027. A teen needs a parent's approval to disable the limit. Meta admitted no wrongdoing, and Texas will receive $1 billion. Ro Khanna (Rep-D California) and Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier said the deal falls short. Florida stayed out of the case, and Uthmeier said, "We'll see them at trial."

What the settlement's own terms leave openA teen cannot turn off the two-hour limit or the midnight-to-6 a.m. block alone; a parent must approve through Meta's supervision…3 details

A teen cannot turn off the two-hour limit or the midnight-to-6 a.m. block alone; a parent must approve through Meta's supervision tools, and the published summaries do not say whether that approval is one-time or recurring.
A second account is no guaranteed bypass — Meta says it will combine usage across accounts it links to the same teen and notify parents — but the audits cover Meta's detection efforts, not their results.
Age checks are an assurance framework, not universal ID: stronger automated estimates, optional ID or face-based verification, and deactivation of a detected under-13 account pending proof of age.

Ongoing2 earlier updates6 days

This story has run 3 times over 6 days, starting Aug 25.

Aug 25U.S. sanctions nearly 60 Iranian targets and threatens countries that keep trading with Tehran
Aug 26China rejects Trump’s threat to sanction Iran’s trading partners
Aug 31Bessent says new Iran sanctions will land every week, with another bank next — this issue

REUTERSIran war

Bessent says new Iran sanctions will land every week, with another bank next

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the United States will punish a new foreign firm or bank every week for doing business with Iran. One target has been named so far — the Dubai branches of an Egyptian state bank — and Iran's trading partners have barely reacted.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday, Aug. 30, that the United States expects to announce new secondary sanctions against Iran every week, and that Washington is preparing to sanction another bank. Secondary sanctions do not target Iranians; they target the foreign banks and companies that handle Iranian money, by threatening to cut them off from the U.S. financial system. That threat has teeth, because almost every large bank needs dollar access to do business. The United Arab Emirates is reviewing Banque Misr, the Egyptian state bank whose Emirati branches Washington moved against days earlier. Bloomberg reported that as of the end of the week, countries that still trade with Tehran had shown little response to the promised campaign.

BackgroundWhat the Banque Misr action actually does — and does not do5 facts

It is a proposed rule, not a blocking designation (an order that freezes the money outright): once final, U.S. banks would have to reject transactions with the UAE branches and run extra checks on related payments. Nothing is cut off yet.
Treasury says those branches moved about $1.8 billion for 103 companies possibly tied to Iranian shadow banking — networks of front firms that move money for a sanctioned country — between January 2024 and June 2026, or roughly $60 million a month.
Banque Misr's Egyptian operation is untouched. Only the Dubai branches are named.
The UAE review is a separate track: its central bank can fine the branches, replace their managers or pull their license, but only if it finds a breach of Emirati law. A U.S. allegation alone does not do it.
For scale, FinCEN — the Treasury unit that tracks suspicious money — flagged about $9 billion in suspected Iranian shadow-banking flows through all U.S. correspondent accounts (the accounts foreign banks use to reach the dollar system) in 2024 alone, against the $1.8 billion Treasury traced to the Dubai branches over two and a half years.

Red take

A channel that moved about $1.8 billion for 103 companies stayed open because enforcement came in bursts with long gaps, and a weekly cadence keeps the risk live for foreign banks before their own name comes up. The volume is small against the roughly $9 billion FinCEN flagged in 2024, but that is the trade: cheap early moves buy caution from banks not yet named, and leaving Banque Misr's Egyptian operation untouched keeps a partner's payment system intact.

Blue take

Deterrence does work on banks that have not been named, which is why the opening case matters: it is the best-prepared one, and it reaches about $60 million a month against the roughly $9 billion FinCEN flagged in 2024 alone. A weekly quota forces Treasury to keep producing names on the calendar's schedule rather than the evidence's, and each thin one buys less cooperation from the correspondent banks the larger flow will require — Tehran's partners have 'barely moved.'

Quick bites7

Trump calls it a rejection of all Canadian imports; the enacted 50% tariffs cover about 5%
THE HILL Canada trade war
The U.S. now taxes a set of Canadian products at 50%, about 5% of what it imports from Canada; two-way trade ran $762.10 billion in 2024, per Census data. Canada matches each of those rates — 15%, 25% or 50% — on September 8. Trump's description of the move as rejecting all Canadian imports is rhetoric; the enacted order covers only the listed goods.
Ongoing3
This story has run 4 times over 11 days, starting Aug 20.
Aug 20Trump pauses 50% Canada tariff two hours before it hits, buying three days
Aug 25Trump imposed 50% tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian goods and threatened the same rate on autos and steel
Aug 26Canada tariffs nearly $20 billion in U.S. goods to match Trump’s 50% levies
Aug 31Trump calls it a rejection of all Canadian imports; the enacted 50% tariffs cover about 5% — this issue
Military leaders told Hegseth prolonged Iran operations would leave the U.S. exposed elsewhere
THE WASHINGTON POST Iran war
Several senior military leaders formally objected to extending U.S. war operations against Iran, in a classified assessment to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. A long, large-scale war can't be sustained, they warned in the document, which The Washington Post described; it would leave the U.S. weaker against other threats, including at home. Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell called publishing it a crime and said much of the reporting is wrong. He did not say which parts, and said such formal objections are normal and reach Hegseth all the time.
Treasury barred Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal from covering the G20 finance meeting
AP
AP reports Treasury barred reporters from Bloomberg News and The Wall Street Journal from the G20 finance meeting in Asheville, North Carolina. Other outlets were kept out too. Treasury has not said why.
State Farm cut claim payouts $1.4 billion after changing how it judged hail damage
NBC NEWS
Unsealed court records show an internal State Farm email crediting the company's new wind-and-hail claims strategy with cutting indemnity payments by about $1.4 billion from 2020 to 2021. Over the same span, roof replacements fell from 5.6 for every repair to 2.0. About 1,000 Oklahoma homeowners allege the insurer quietly narrowed what counts as hail damage without changing a word of their policies. State Farm denies wrongdoing and says it has paid Oklahoma customers more than $1 billion for wind and hail damage over the past two years.

Indemnity payments down about $1.4 billion, 2020 to 2021
USDA closes 2 of 3 cyclospora projects during a 17,000-case outbreak
THE GUARDIAN Cyclospora outbreak
USDA is closing two of its three cyclospora research projects and moving the third from Maryland to Iowa. Congress did not include the two closed projects in fiscal 2026 funding; USDA says none of the research has been disrupted. The Guardian reports more than 17,000 confirmed cyclosporiasis cases across 48 states and Washington, D.C., in the current outbreak. The same report says the surviving project's scientists have all reportedly declined to move to Iowa.
Pentagon hires conservative military influencers and won't describe their civilian jobs
THE WASHINGTON POST
The Washington Post reports the Pentagon hired several conservative veterans with large online followings into civilian jobs. Asked what the work is, the department did not describe it. The same accounts have promoted Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's views.
Arizona loses about 30% of its Colorado River water in 2027 and 2028
NBC NEWS
The Bureau of Reclamation proposed a two-year plan that would cut roughly 30% of Arizona's Colorado River supply in 2027 and 2028. The seven basin states failed to reach their own deal, and this interim federal plan is not final.

Interim federal plan would cut about 30% of Arizona's Colorado River supply in 2027 and 2028

Yuma County grows 90% of the leafy greens Americans eat in winter, per NBC News, and the cut lands hardest there

Election Bites1 bite

Trump says he will report NBC's Kristen Welker to the FCC over her endorsement analysis
POLITICO FCC and the networks
POLITICO: Trump says he will report NBC's Kristen Welker to the FCC for calling his primary endorsements mixed

Trump said he would report NBC's Kristen Welker to the FCC for "rebuke or punishment." She had said his primary endorsements produced mixed results. "How can anyone be allowed to say this, working for freely given Public Airwaves?" he asked. Welker said it during a live preview on NBC's Washington affiliate, not on Meet the Press. The record is mixed. Trump-endorsed candidates won 214 of 218 House primaries and 24 of 24 Senate ones, while 5 of his 21 picks for governor lost. NBC said it stands by Welker.

Elections22 races

The midterms · 64 days out · November 3, 2026

D or R take the House / Senate?

Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT

U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 89%, Kalshi 85%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 51%, Kalshi 49%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

U.S. House — Democrats take it, 84.5–88.5%

89%85%chance Democrats take it · 4.0pp apart · no clear move — the venues went opposite ways

U.S. House: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 89% and Kalshi 85%.

U.S. Senate — Republicans retain it, 49.5–51.5%

51%49%chance Democrats take it · 2.0pp apart · both venues up this week

U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 51% and Kalshi 49%.

No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only

Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.

two venues, priced separately
shaded = how far apart they are
50% — control flips here
where it stood 7 days ago
the last 7 days, on its own scale
week panel: one line a party

The week panel draws one line per party, crossing where control does. Only the Democratic line is a traded price: the Republicanline is its arithmetic complement, the same mirror the bar’s other half is, and not a second market agreeing with the first. The shading around each line is how far apart the two venues are.

Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.

The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 4.0pp gap / 2.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.

Who is defending the House and the Senate is sourced, not remembered — House, 2026-07-23 issue: the NDAA passed “216-212, with six Democrats joining a unified Republican majority.”; Senate, 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.”

Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

PolymarketU.S. House · todayWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Democratic control89%

Republican, implied11%

volume$5.6M

7-day move+1.0pp

KalshiU.S. House · todayWill Democrats win the House in 2026?

Democratic control85%

Republican, implied15%

volume9.8M contracts

bid / ask84% / 85%

7-day move-1.5pp

PolymarketU.S. Senate · todayWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Democratic control51%

Republican, implied49%

volume$2.4M

7-day move+1.0pp

KalshiU.S. Senate · todayWill Democrats win the U.S. Senate in 2026?

Democratic control49%

Republican, implied51%

volume3.3M contracts

bid / ask48% / 49%

7-day move+2.5pp

Probability that Democrats control each chamber, as each venue prices it, by day.
Day	U.S. House · Polymarket	U.S. House · Kalshi	U.S. Senate · Polymarket	U.S. Senate · Kalshi
7 days ago	88%	86%	50%	46%
6 days ago	88%	86%	51%	48%
5 days ago	89%	85%	51%	49%
4 days ago	89%	84%	51%	48%
3 days ago	89%	84%	51%	48%
2 days ago	90%	84%	51%	48%
yesterday	89%	85%	51%	48%
today	89%	85%	51%	49%

3 closest races

kTexas SenateJames Talarico 50.5%▲0.4Ken Paxton 50.0%

POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election

Ken Paxton (R) faces James Talarico (D).

The only race here where the two venues do not agree on who is ahead.

Two markets, one question

Texas Senate

Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 50.5%, Kalshi 50.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 50.5%, Kalshi 49.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: James Talarico 51% · Ken Paxton 50%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

James Talarico (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$446K49.5%

Kalshi4.3M contracts · 50%/51%50.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move+1.0pp

Ken Paxton (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$527K48.5%

Kalshi5.7M contracts · 49%/50%52.0%

venue gap3.5pp

7-day move+2.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Texas Senate, snapshot Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT.
Day	James Talarico · Polymarket	James Talarico · Kalshi	Ken Paxton · Polymarket	Ken Paxton · Kalshi
7 days ago	49.5%	50.0%	48.5%	52.0%
6 days ago	49.5%	52.0%	48.5%	49.0%
5 days ago	49.5%	49.0%	48.5%	51.0%
4 days ago	49.5%	49.0%	48.5%	51.0%
3 days ago	49.5%	50.0%	49.5%	51.0%
2 days ago	49.5%	50.0%	50.5%	50.0%
yesterday	50.5%	51.0%	50.5%	51.0%
today	50.5%	50.5%	50.5%	49.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

oOhio SenateSherrod Brown 54.5%▲1.8Jon Husted 45.5%

POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election

Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).

A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead.

Two markets, one question

Ohio Senate

Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 54.5%, Kalshi 54.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 45.5%, Kalshi 45.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Sherrod Brown 55% · Jon Husted 46%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Sherrod Brown (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$110K54.5%

Kalshi1.0M contracts · 54%/55%52.0%

venue gap2.5pp

7-day move0.0pp

Jon Husted (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$78.1K46.5%

Kalshi1.5M contracts · 45%/46%49.0%

venue gap2.5pp

7-day move-1.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Ohio Senate, snapshot Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT.
Day	Sherrod Brown · Polymarket	Sherrod Brown · Kalshi	Jon Husted · Polymarket	Jon Husted · Kalshi
7 days ago	54.5%	52.0%	46.5%	49.0%
6 days ago	54.5%	55.0%	45.0%	47.0%
5 days ago	55.5%	55.0%	45.0%	47.0%
4 days ago	55.5%	54.0%	45.5%	47.0%
3 days ago	54.5%	55.0%	45.5%	47.0%
2 days ago	54.5%	56.0%	45.5%	46.0%
yesterday	54.5%	55.0%	45.5%	46.0%
today	54.5%	54.5%	45.5%	45.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

iOhio governorAmy Acton 55.5%▲0.5Vivek Ramaswamy 44.5%

POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election

Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).

Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Ohio governor

Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT
widest venue gap 4.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 53.5%, Kalshi 57.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 46.5%, Kalshi 42.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Amy Acton 57% · Vivek Ramaswamy 43%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Amy Acton (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$79.4K54.5%

Kalshi696K contracts · 57%/58%56.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move-1.0pp

Vivek Ramaswamy (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$96.1K45.5%

Kalshi732K contracts · 42%/43%45.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move+1.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Ohio governor, snapshot Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT.
Day	Amy Acton · Polymarket	Amy Acton · Kalshi	Vivek Ramaswamy · Polymarket	Vivek Ramaswamy · Kalshi
7 days ago	54.5%	56.0%	45.5%	45.0%
6 days ago	54.5%	57.0%	45.5%	44.0%
5 days ago	53.5%	57.0%	46.5%	47.0%
4 days ago	54.5%	56.0%	46.5%	45.0%
3 days ago	53.5%	56.0%	45.5%	44.0%
2 days ago	53.5%	57.0%	46.5%	44.0%
yesterday	53.5%	57.0%	46.5%	44.0%
today	53.5%	57.5%	46.5%	42.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

The other 19 races22 races · 12 still in doubt · Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT · markets, not polling

Senate8 of 10

lAlaska SenateMary Peltola 65.0%▲3.6Dan Sullivan 35.3%

POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election

Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).

A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead.

Two markets, one question

Alaska Senate

Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 65.5%, Kalshi 64.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 34.5%, Kalshi 36.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Mary Peltola 65% · Dan Sullivan 35%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Mary Peltola (D)7 days ago

Polymarket$240K61%

Kalshi75.2K contracts · 63%/66%63%

venue gap2.0pp

7-day move+4.5pp

Dan Sullivan (R)7 days ago

Polymarket$136K38.5%

Kalshi71.7K contracts · 35%/37%40.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move-4.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Alaska Senate, snapshot Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT.
Day	Mary Peltola · Polymarket	Mary Peltola · Kalshi	Dan Sullivan · Polymarket	Dan Sullivan · Kalshi
7 days ago	61.0%	63.0%	38.5%	40%
6 days ago	61.5%	64.0%	38.5%	38%
5 days ago	64.5%	64.0%	36.5%	41%
4 days ago	66.5%	65.0%	34.5%	39%
3 days ago	65.0%	64.0%	35.5%	39%
2 days ago	64.5%	63.0%	34.5%	36%
yesterday	65.5%	62.0%	34.5%	36%
today	65.5%	64.5%	34.5%	36%

tGeorgia SenateJon Ossoff 93.05%▲0.6Collins 7.08%

POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election

Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Georgia Senate

Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.3pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 93.5%, Kalshi 92.6%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 6.40%, Kalshi 7.75%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.3pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Jon Ossoff 93% · Mike Collins 7.6%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Jon Ossoff (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$48.8K93.5%

Kalshi349K contracts · 92%/93%91.8%

venue gap1.7pp

7-day move0.0pp

Mike Collins (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$74.5K6.95%

Kalshi816K contracts · 7.5%/8.0%8.50%

venue gap1.6pp

7-day move-0.6pp

Every sample behind the chart. Georgia Senate, snapshot Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT.
Day	Jon Ossoff · Polymarket	Jon Ossoff · Kalshi	Mike Collins · Polymarket	Mike Collins · Kalshi
7 days ago	93.5%	91.8%	6.95%	8.50%
6 days ago	93.5%	92.4%	6.10%	7.80%
5 days ago	93.5%	91.7%	6.05%	7.60%
4 days ago	93.5%	92.1%	6.35%	8.00%
3 days ago	93.5%	92.7%	6.35%	7.90%
2 days ago	93.5%	92.6%	6.35%	8.10%
yesterday	93.5%	92.8%	6.40%	7.70%
today	93.5%	92.6%	6.40%	7.75%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

mIowa SenateAshley Hinson 60.0%▲1.6Josh Turek 40.0%

POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election

Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).

An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead.

Two markets, one question

Iowa Senate

Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 60.5%, Kalshi 59.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 39.5%, Kalshi 40.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Ashley Hinson 60% · Josh Turek 40%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Ashley Hinson (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$116K60.5%

Kalshi982K contracts · 59%/60%58.0%

venue gap2.5pp

7-day move0.0pp

Josh Turek (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$108K40.5%

Kalshi1.1M contracts · 40%/41%44.0%

venue gap3.5pp

7-day move-1.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Iowa Senate, snapshot Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT.
Day	Ashley Hinson · Polymarket	Ashley Hinson · Kalshi	Josh Turek · Polymarket	Josh Turek · Kalshi
7 days ago	60.5%	58.0%	40.5%	44.0%
6 days ago	60.5%	57.0%	40.5%	44.0%
5 days ago	60.5%	58.0%	39.5%	42.0%
4 days ago	60.5%	59.0%	40.5%	42.0%
3 days ago	60.5%	59.0%	40.5%	42.0%
2 days ago	61.0%	59.0%	39.5%	42.0%
yesterday	60.5%	59.0%	39.5%	41.0%
today	60.5%	59.5%	39.5%	40.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

jMaine SenateTroy Jackson 69.5%▲0.4Collins 31.0%

POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election

Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).

Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Maine Senate

Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 69.5%, Kalshi 69.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 31.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Troy Jackson 69% · Susan Collins 31%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Troy Jackson (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$734K70.5%

Kalshi1.9M contracts · 69%/70%69.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move-1.0pp

Susan Collins (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$495K30%

Kalshi2.6M contracts · 31%/32%31%

venue gap1.0pp

7-day move+0.5pp

Every sample behind the chart. Maine Senate, snapshot Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT.
Day	Troy Jackson · Polymarket	Troy Jackson · Kalshi	Susan Collins · Polymarket	Susan Collins · Kalshi
7 days ago	70.5%	69.0%	30.0%	31.0%
6 days ago	70.5%	69.0%	30.5%	30.0%
5 days ago	69.5%	69.0%	30.5%	32.0%
4 days ago	69.5%	67.0%	31.5%	35.0%
3 days ago	69.5%	69.0%	31.5%	32.0%
2 days ago	69.5%	70.0%	30.5%	31.0%
yesterday	69.5%	70.0%	30.5%	31.0%
today	69.5%	69.5%	30.5%	31.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

nMichigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed 64.0%▲3.7Mike Rogers 36.0%

POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election

Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about four points in a week.

Two markets, one question

Michigan Senate

Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 64.5%, Kalshi 63.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 35.5%, Kalshi 36.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 64% · Mike Rogers 36%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Abdul El-Sayed (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$341K61.5%

Kalshi1.2M contracts · 63%/64%59.0%

venue gap2.5pp

7-day move+3.0pp

Mike Rogers (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$281K38.5%

Kalshi1.7M contracts · 36%/37%41.0%

venue gap2.5pp

7-day move-3.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Michigan Senate, snapshot Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT.
Day	Abdul El-Sayed · Polymarket	Abdul El-Sayed · Kalshi	Mike Rogers · Polymarket	Mike Rogers · Kalshi
7 days ago	61.5%	59.0%	38.5%	41.0%
6 days ago	63.0%	62.0%	37.5%	40.0%
5 days ago	64.5%	62.0%	35.5%	40.0%
4 days ago	64.5%	61.0%	35.5%	40.0%
3 days ago	64.5%	63.0%	35.5%	39.0%
2 days ago	64.5%	63.0%	35.5%	37.0%
yesterday	64.5%	64.0%	35.5%	37.0%
today	64.5%	63.5%	35.5%	36.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

uNebraska SenatePete Ricketts 69.8%▲0.5Dan Osborn 30.3%

POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election

Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).

The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Nebraska Senate

Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 70.0%, Kalshi 69.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 29.5%, Kalshi 31.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Pete Ricketts 70% · Dan Osborn 31%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Pete Ricketts (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$91.7K69.5%

Kalshi283K contracts · 69%/70%71.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move+0.5pp

Dan Osborn (I)7 days ago

Polymarket$27.1K30.5%

Kalshi375K contracts · 30%/32%29.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move-1.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Nebraska Senate, snapshot Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT.
Day	Pete Ricketts · Polymarket	Pete Ricketts · Kalshi	Dan Osborn · Polymarket	Dan Osborn · Kalshi
7 days ago	69.5%	71.0%	30.5%	29%
6 days ago	69.5%	70.0%	30.5%	31%
5 days ago	70.5%	70.0%	29.5%	30%
4 days ago	70.5%	70.0%	29.5%	31%
3 days ago	70.5%	70.0%	29.5%	29%
2 days ago	70.5%	70.0%	29.5%	30%
yesterday	70.0%	70.0%	29.5%	31%
today	70.0%	69.5%	29.5%	31%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

vNew Hampshire SenateChris Pappas 84.0%16.3%Sununu

POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election

Chris Pappas (D) leads the unresolved Democratic primary; John E. Sununu (R) leads the unresolved Republican primary.

Neither nomination is official yet, though the market already treats both as decided — the Republican side gained about six points in a week.

General election wintwo venues

Chris Pappas^* (D)party contract84.5%83.5%1.0pp apart

The whole field

New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary

Every candidate the venue lists, replayed across the window it has priced. Bars are linear, so a 0.05% long shot is a hairline — that is what the market thinks of them.

Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT
6 candidates listed

New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary on today, priced by Kalshi: Chris Pappas 95%, Karishma Manzur 5.8%, Maggie Goodlander 0.3%, Annie Kuster 0.2%, Jared Sullivan 0.2%, Stefany Shaheen 0.2%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

Chris Pappas95%

Karishma Manzur5.8%

Maggie Goodlander0.3%

Annie Kuster0.2%

Jared Sullivan0.2%

Stefany Shaheen0.2%

Daytoday

Biggest moves over the window (Kalshi): Karishma Manzur +2.8pp · Chris Pappas -2.6pp · leading on today: Chris Pappas at 95%.

A candidate with no sample on the selected day is shown as not priced and dropped to the bottom rather than carried forward from an earlier day. Venues list candidates on different dates, so the field genuinely grows and shrinks across the window.

New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary — Kalshiprice by day, plus the other venue’s price today.
Candidate	7 days ago	6 days ago	5 days ago	4 days ago	3 days ago	2 days ago	yesterday	today	Other venue, today	Volume
Chris Pappas	97%	97%	94%	94%	94%	93%	97%	95%	—	109K contracts
Karishma Manzur	3.0%	3.0%	5.8%	7.0%	6.5%	7.0%	7.3%	5.8%	—	137K contracts
Maggie Goodlander	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.3%	—	1.4K contracts
Annie Kuster	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.9%	0.2%	—	622 contracts
Jared Sullivan	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.2%	—	3 contracts
Stefany Shaheen	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.5%	0.2%	—	1.3K contracts

No 7-day series from Kalshi for Maggie Goodlander, Jared Sullivan— they only appear at “today”.

New Hampshire Democratic Senate primaryNomination odds · Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT

Chris Pappas (D)95%-2.6pp

Karishma Manzur (D)5.8%+2.8pp

Maggie Goodlander (D)0.3%7D —

Annie Kuster (D)0.2%-0.7pp

Jared Sullivan (D)0.2%7D —

Stefany Shaheen (D)0.2%-0.3pp

John E. Sununu^* (R)party contract16.0%16.5%0.5pp apart

The whole field

New Hampshire Republican Senate primary

Every candidate the venue lists, replayed across the window it has priced. Bars are linear, so a 0.05% long shot is a hairline — that is what the market thinks of them.

Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT
4 candidates listed

New Hampshire Republican Senate primary on today, priced by Kalshi: John E. Sununu 98%, Scott Brown 2.1%, Dan Innis 0.9%, Chris Sununu 0.8%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

John E. Sununu98%

Scott Brown2.1%

Dan Innis0.9%

Chris Sununu0.8%

Daytoday

Biggest moves over the window (Kalshi): Scott Brown -1.3pp · Chris Sununu -1.1pp · leading on today: John E. Sununu at 98%.

New Hampshire Republican Senate primary — Kalshiprice by day, plus the other venue’s price today.
Candidate	7 days ago	6 days ago	5 days ago	4 days ago	3 days ago	2 days ago	yesterday	today	Other venue, today	Volume
John E. Sununu	—	98%	97%	99%	99.6%	99.7%	98%	98%	—	15.9K contracts
Scott Brown	3.4%	2.3%	2.0%	2.3%	1.8%	2.1%	2.5%	2.1%	—	30.1K contracts
Dan Innis	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.9%	—	37 contracts
Chris Sununu	—	—	—	—	—	1.9%	0.7%	0.8%	—	22.7K contracts

No 7-day series from Kalshi for Dan Innis— they only appear at “today”.

New Hampshire Republican Senate primaryNomination odds · Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT

John E. Sununu (R)98%+0.1pp

Scott Brown (R)2.1%-1.3pp

Dan Innis (R)0.9%7D —

Chris Sununu (R)0.8%-1.1pp

* Current primary leader; nomination not settled. General-election odds above may price the party rather than the person.

Two markets, one question

New Hampshire Senate

Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 84.5%, Kalshi 83.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 16.0%, Kalshi 16.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Chris Pappas 84% · John E. Sununu 16%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Chris Pappas (D)*7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$58.9K89.5%

Kalshi84.7K contracts · 83%/84%89.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move-5.0pp

John E. Sununu (R)*7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$27.3K10%

Kalshi154K contracts · 16%/17%10%

venue gap0.0pp

7-day move+6.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. New Hampshire Senate, snapshot Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT.
Day	Chris Pappas · Polymarket	Chris Pappas · Kalshi	John E. Sununu · Polymarket	John E. Sununu · Kalshi
7 days ago	89.5%	89.0%	10.0%	10.0%
6 days ago	88.0%	87.0%	11.5%	10.0%
5 days ago	86.5%	86.0%	14.0%	14.0%
4 days ago	86.5%	85.0%	14.5%	17.0%
3 days ago	85.5%	84.0%	14.5%	17.0%
2 days ago	84.5%	84.0%	14.5%	18.0%
yesterday	84.5%	84.0%	16.0%	17.0%
today	84.5%	83.5%	16.0%	16.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

sNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 91.58%▲0.28.43%Whatley

POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election

Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

North Carolina Senate

Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.9pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 92.00%, Kalshi 91.15%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 8.00%, Kalshi 8.85%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.9pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Roy Cooper 91% · Michael Whatley 8.8%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Roy Cooper (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$40.8K92.5%

Kalshi1.3M contracts · 91%/91%91.1%

venue gap1.4pp

7-day move-0.5pp

Michael Whatley (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$59.7K8.5%

Kalshi461K contracts · 8.5%/9.2%8.7%

venue gap0.2pp

7-day move-0.5pp

Every sample behind the chart. North Carolina Senate, snapshot Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT.
Day	Roy Cooper · Polymarket	Roy Cooper · Kalshi	Michael Whatley · Polymarket	Michael Whatley · Kalshi
7 days ago	92.5%	91.10%	8.5%	8.70%
6 days ago	91.5%	92.80%	8.5%	8.10%
5 days ago	91.5%	91.80%	8.5%	8.40%
4 days ago	91.5%	91.50%	8.5%	7.80%
3 days ago	91.5%	92.30%	9.0%	8.80%
2 days ago	91.5%	91.10%	9.0%	9.80%
yesterday	92.0%	92.50%	8.0%	9.10%
today	92.0%	91.15%	8.0%	8.85%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Governors11 of 12

xAlaska governorBernadette Wilson 35.50%63.5%Begich 0.98%

POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election

Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).

Wilson holds a commanding lead, but no race here has moved more this week: Begich is down about eighteen points.

Two markets, one question

Alaska governor

Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.7pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 35.5%, Kalshi 35.5%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 1.30%, Kalshi 0.65%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.7pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.

Money-weighted: Bernadette Wilson 36% · Tom Begich 0.9%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Bernadette Wilson (R)7 days ago

Polymarket$167K35.5%

Kalshi37.7K contracts · 35%/36%—

venue gap—

7-day move0.0pp

Tom Begich (D)7 days ago

Polymarket$158K18.5%

Kalshi227K contracts · 0.2%/1.1%19.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move-17pp

Every sample behind the chart. Alaska governor, snapshot Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT.
Day	Bernadette Wilson · Polymarket	Bernadette Wilson · Kalshi	Tom Begich · Polymarket	Tom Begich · Kalshi
7 days ago	35.5%	—	18.50%	19.00%
6 days ago	35.5%	36.0%	18.00%	18.00%
5 days ago	35.5%	36.0%	15.00%	18.00%
4 days ago	36.5%	35.0%	3.25%	14.00%
3 days ago	35.5%	36.0%	1.35%	1.00%
2 days ago	35.5%	37.0%	1.40%	0.10%
yesterday	35.5%	36.0%	1.30%	1.00%
today	35.5%	35.5%	1.30%	0.65%

zArizona governorKatie Hobbs 87.3%13.3%Biggs

POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election

Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Arizona governor

Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 87.5%, Kalshi 87.0%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 12.5%, Kalshi 14.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Katie Hobbs 87% · Andy Biggs 14%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Katie Hobbs (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$31.1K87.5%

Kalshi304K contracts · 86%/88%89.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move0.0pp

Andy Biggs (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$36.2K12.5%

Kalshi235K contracts · 13%/15%14.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move0.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Arizona governor, snapshot Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT.
Day	Katie Hobbs · Polymarket	Katie Hobbs · Kalshi	Andy Biggs · Polymarket	Andy Biggs · Kalshi
7 days ago	87.5%	89%	12.5%	14%
6 days ago	87.5%	89%	12.5%	13%
5 days ago	87.5%	88%	12.5%	13%
4 days ago	87.5%	88%	12.5%	14%
3 days ago	87.5%	89%	12.5%	14%
2 days ago	87.5%	88%	12.5%	14%
yesterday	87.5%	88%	12.5%	15%
today	87.5%	87%	12.5%	14%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

adFlorida governorByron Donalds 81.3%▲2.0Jolly 19.5%

POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election

Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).

Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead.

Two markets, one question

Florida governor

Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 81.0%, Kalshi 81.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 19.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Byron Donalds 81% · David Jolly 20%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Byron Donalds (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$26.8K78.5%

Kalshi475K contracts · 81%/82%81.0%

venue gap2.5pp

7-day move+2.5pp

David Jolly (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$30.9K22.5%

Kalshi247K contracts · 19%/20%21.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move-3.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Florida governor, snapshot Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT.
Day	Byron Donalds · Polymarket	Byron Donalds · Kalshi	David Jolly · Polymarket	David Jolly · Kalshi
7 days ago	78.5%	81.0%	22.5%	21.0%
6 days ago	79.5%	81.0%	20.5%	19.0%
5 days ago	79.5%	82.0%	19.0%	19.0%
4 days ago	79.5%	83.0%	19.0%	19.0%
3 days ago	80.5%	83.0%	18.5%	18.0%
2 days ago	81.0%	84.0%	19.5%	17.0%
yesterday	81.0%	81.0%	19.5%	19.0%
today	81.0%	81.5%	19.5%	19.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

qGeorgia governorKeisha Lance Bottoms 59.0%▲0.5Rick Jackson 40.5%

POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election

Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).

Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Georgia governor

Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 59%, Kalshi 59%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 39.5%, Kalshi 41.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Keisha Lance Bottoms 59% · Rick Jackson 41%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$32.4K60.5%

Kalshi273K contracts · 58%/60%60.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move-1.5pp

Rick Jackson (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$36.8K40%

Kalshi363K contracts · 41%/42%42%

venue gap2.0pp

7-day move-0.5pp

Every sample behind the chart. Georgia governor, snapshot Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT.
Day	Keisha Lance Bottoms · Polymarket	Keisha Lance Bottoms · Kalshi	Rick Jackson · Polymarket	Rick Jackson · Kalshi
7 days ago	60.5%	60%	40.0%	42.0%
6 days ago	61.0%	59%	40.0%	42.0%
5 days ago	59.0%	61%	40.0%	41.0%
4 days ago	59.0%	59%	40.0%	41.0%
3 days ago	59.0%	60%	39.5%	42.0%
2 days ago	59.0%	59%	39.0%	41.0%
yesterday	59.0%	60%	39.5%	41.0%
today	59.0%	59%	39.5%	41.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

wIowa governorRob Sand 75.0%Zach Lahn 25.5%

POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election

Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.

Two markets, one question

Iowa governor

Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 75.5%, Kalshi 74.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 24.5%, Kalshi 26.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Rob Sand 75% · Zach Lahn 26%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Rob Sand (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$31.1K73.5%

Kalshi251K contracts · 74%/75%77.0%

venue gap3.5pp

7-day move+2.0pp

Zach Lahn (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$43.7K27.5%

Kalshi287K contracts · 26%/27%24.0%

venue gap3.5pp

7-day move-3.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Iowa governor, snapshot Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT.
Day	Rob Sand · Polymarket	Rob Sand · Kalshi	Zach Lahn · Polymarket	Zach Lahn · Kalshi
7 days ago	73.5%	77.0%	27.5%	24.0%
6 days ago	74.5%	76.0%	24.5%	26.0%
5 days ago	74.0%	76.0%	25.5%	26.0%
4 days ago	74.5%	75.0%	25.5%	27.0%
3 days ago	74.5%	75.0%	25.5%	27.0%
2 days ago	74.5%	74.0%	25.5%	26.0%
yesterday	75.5%	77.0%	24.5%	26.0%
today	75.5%	74.5%	24.5%	26.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

yMichigan governorJocelyn Benson 89.3%11.3%James

POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election

Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

Two markets, one question

Michigan governor

Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT
widest venue gap 6.5pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 90.5%, Kalshi 88.0%; John James (R): Polymarket 8.0%, Kalshi 14.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 6.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 6–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.

Money-weighted: Jocelyn Benson 89% · John James 11%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Jocelyn Benson (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$48.4K90.5%

Kalshi73.1K contracts · 87%/89%—

venue gap—

7-day move0.0pp

John James (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$153K9.5%

Kalshi124K contracts · 13%/16%13.0%

venue gap3.5pp

7-day move-1.5pp

Every sample behind the chart. Michigan governor, snapshot Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT.
Day	Jocelyn Benson · Polymarket	Jocelyn Benson · Kalshi	John James · Polymarket	John James · Kalshi
7 days ago	90.5%	—	9.5%	13.0%
6 days ago	90.5%	—	9.5%	13.0%
5 days ago	91.0%	89.0%	9.0%	12.0%
4 days ago	91.5%	88.0%	8.5%	12.0%
3 days ago	91.0%	92.9%	8.5%	15.0%
2 days ago	90.5%	89.0%	8.0%	10.0%
yesterday	90.5%	87.0%	8.0%	15.0%
today	90.5%	88.0%	8.0%	14.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

rNevada governorJoe Lombardo 60.5%▲1.0Aaron Ford 40.3%

POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election

Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).

Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Republican side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Nevada governor

Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 61.5%, Kalshi 59.5%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 39.5%, Kalshi 41.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Joe Lombardo 60% · Aaron Ford 41%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Joe Lombardo (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$57.2K59.5%

Kalshi226K contracts · 59%/60%59.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move+2.0pp

Aaron Ford (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$23.4K40.5%

Kalshi482K contracts · 40%/42%42.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move-1.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Nevada governor, snapshot Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT.
Day	Joe Lombardo · Polymarket	Joe Lombardo · Kalshi	Aaron Ford · Polymarket	Aaron Ford · Kalshi
7 days ago	59.5%	59.0%	40.5%	42%
6 days ago	59.5%	59.0%	41.0%	42%
5 days ago	59.5%	61.0%	41.0%	42%
4 days ago	59.5%	61.0%	41.0%	41%
3 days ago	59.5%	60.0%	41.0%	40%
2 days ago	59.5%	60.0%	41.0%	42%
yesterday	61.5%	60.0%	39.5%	42%
today	61.5%	59.5%	39.5%	41%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

abNew York governorKathy Hochul 94.28%Blakeman 6.30%

POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election

Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

New York governor

Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.6pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 94.50%, Kalshi 94.05%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 5.5%, Kalshi 7.1%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.6pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Kathy Hochul 94% · Bruce Blakeman 7.0%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Kathy Hochul (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$49.3K94.5%

Kalshi271K contracts · 94%/94%94.7%

venue gap0.2pp

7-day move0.0pp

Bruce Blakeman (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$55.3K4.5%

Kalshi705K contracts · 6.5%/7.7%6.2%

venue gap1.7pp

7-day move+1.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. New York governor, snapshot Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT.
Day	Kathy Hochul · Polymarket	Kathy Hochul · Kalshi	Bruce Blakeman · Polymarket	Bruce Blakeman · Kalshi
7 days ago	94.5%	94.70%	4.5%	6.2%
6 days ago	94.5%	94.50%	5.0%	5.4%
5 days ago	94.5%	94.60%	5.0%	6.4%
4 days ago	94.5%	94.10%	5.0%	6.1%
3 days ago	94.5%	94.30%	5.0%	6.2%
2 days ago	94.5%	94.10%	5.0%	6.2%
yesterday	94.5%	94.00%	5.5%	6.6%
today	94.5%	94.05%	5.5%	7.1%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

acPennsylvania governorJosh Shapiro 96.35%▲0.5Garrity 2.67%

POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election

Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

Two markets, one question

Pennsylvania governor

Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.7pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 95.5%, Kalshi 97.2%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.25%, Kalshi 3.10%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.7pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 4–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.

Money-weighted: Josh Shapiro 97% · Stacy Garrity 3.0%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Josh Shapiro (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$7.5K95.5%

Kalshi99.1K contracts · 97%/98%—

venue gap—

7-day move0.0pp

Stacy Garrity (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$41.6K4.5%

Kalshi391K contracts · 2.5%/3.7%3.3%

venue gap1.2pp

7-day move-2.3pp

Every sample behind the chart. Pennsylvania governor, snapshot Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT.
Day	Josh Shapiro · Polymarket	Josh Shapiro · Kalshi	Stacy Garrity · Polymarket	Stacy Garrity · Kalshi
7 days ago	95.5%	—	4.50%	3.3%
6 days ago	95.5%	—	4.50%	6.9%
5 days ago	95.5%	—	2.45%	2.9%
4 days ago	95.5%	—	2.75%	4.9%
3 days ago	95.5%	96.3%	2.75%	4.9%
2 days ago	95.5%	96.0%	2.50%	4.3%
yesterday	95.5%	97.7%	2.25%	4.3%
today	95.5%	97.2%	2.25%	3.1%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

aaTexas governorGreg Abbott 83.7%15.8%Hinojosa

POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election

Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).

The Republican side holds a commanding lead after losing about four points in a week.

Two markets, one question

Texas governor

Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.7pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 82.8%, Kalshi 84.5%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 16.5%, Kalshi 15.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.7pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Greg Abbott 84% · Gina Hinojosa 15%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Greg Abbott (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$38.5K86.5%

Kalshi159K contracts · 84%/85%89.0%

venue gap2.5pp

7-day move-3.7pp

Gina Hinojosa (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$50.8K13.5%

Kalshi580K contracts · 14%/16%13.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move+3.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Texas governor, snapshot Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT.
Day	Greg Abbott · Polymarket	Greg Abbott · Kalshi	Gina Hinojosa · Polymarket	Gina Hinojosa · Kalshi
7 days ago	86.50%	89.0%	13.5%	13%
6 days ago	86.05%	88.0%	14.5%	13%
5 days ago	83.60%	88.0%	16.5%	13%
4 days ago	82.60%	86.0%	17.5%	15%
3 days ago	82.35%	86.0%	18.5%	16%
2 days ago	83.05%	86.0%	16.0%	16%
yesterday	82.80%	85.0%	16.5%	16%
today	82.80%	84.5%	16.5%	15%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

pWisconsin governorDavid Crowley 80.5%▲0.8Tiffany 20.5%

POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election

David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).

An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Wisconsin governor

Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 81.5%, Kalshi 79.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 21.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: David Crowley 80% · Tom Tiffany 21%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

David Crowley (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$274K80.5%

Kalshi443K contracts · 79%/80%78.0%

venue gap2.5pp

7-day move+1.0pp

Tom Tiffany (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$243K19.5%

Kalshi463K contracts · 21%/22%23.0%

venue gap3.5pp

7-day move0.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Wisconsin governor, snapshot Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT.
Day	David Crowley · Polymarket	David Crowley · Kalshi	Tom Tiffany · Polymarket	Tom Tiffany · Kalshi
7 days ago	80.5%	78.0%	19.5%	23.0%
6 days ago	80.5%	79.0%	19.5%	22.0%
5 days ago	80.5%	80.0%	19.5%	21.0%
4 days ago	80.5%	78.0%	19.5%	20.0%
3 days ago	80.5%	80.0%	19.5%	21.0%
2 days ago	80.5%	79.0%	19.5%	21.0%
yesterday	81.5%	80.0%	19.5%	20.0%
today	81.5%	79.5%	19.5%	21.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Aug 31, 3:45 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.

Aug 312026

Executive summary4 stories

News news4

News news4 stories

The first known U.S. military action inside Iran since July 29 hit launchers set to re-seed the shipping lane the Navy finished clearing a week earlier.

UpdateWhat changed since Aug. 29

Related reading

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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the United States will punish a new foreign firm or bank every week for doing business with Iran. One target has been named so far — the Dubai branches of an Egyptian state bank — and Iran's trading partners have barely reacted.

Related reading

SEMI-RELATEDUAE announced a halt to all trade and financial transactions with Iran on Aug. 19

Quick bites7

Trump calls it a rejection of all Canadian imports; the enacted 50% tariffs cover about 5%

Military leaders told Hegseth prolonged Iran operations would leave the U.S. exposed elsewhere

Treasury barred Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal from covering the G20 finance meeting

State Farm cut claim payouts $1.4 billion after changing how it judged hail damage

USDA closes 2 of 3 cyclospora projects during a 17,000-case outbreak

Pentagon hires conservative military influencers and won't describe their civilian jobs

Arizona loses about 30% of its Colorado River water in 2027 and 2028

Trump says he will report NBC's Kristen Welker to the FCC over her endorsement analysis

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