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Ongoing12 earlier updates42 days
This story has run 13 times over 42 days, starting Jul 23.
- Trump Threatens to Bomb Iranian Bridges and Power Plants for Every Ship Hit in Strait of Hormuz
- Iran fires multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. base in Jordan; all are intercepted
- Iran denies Trump’s claim that new U.S. talks would start Monday
- Cargo ship is struck in the Strait of Hormuz
- Vance says the Iran talks are moving, then calls the war only half over
- Iran won't reopen Hormuz until the US unfreezes its assets and lifts the blockade
- Trump threatens to bomb Oman, the U.S. ally brokering the deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
- Trump declares an "economic D-Day" on Iran as Hormuz traffic runs 85% below normal
- UpdateU.S. goes nearly a month without large Iran strikes as Trump shifts back to sanctions; Hormuz remains closed
- U.S. destroys two Iranian rocket launchers loaded to mine the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at bases in Jordan, all intercepted
- UpdateU.S. bombs two Iranian rocket sites near the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at Jordan
- UpdateU.S. forces struck IRGC air-defense, radar, maritime and mine-laying sites on Iran's southern coast starting at noon on Sept. 1
- UpdateU.S. hits about 100 Iranian targets; Iran fires back at American bases in four countries, and a cruise missile kills 4 at a wedding — this issue
Iranian officials count at least 18 dead along the southern coast, four of them at a wedding compound in Kuhestak; Brent crude passed $90 a barrel and no U.S. casualties were reported in the retaliation.
The United States carried out its largest wave of strikes on Iran in weeks on Tuesday, Sept. 1, hitting roughly 100 targets. Tehran answered by striking American military sites in four countries: Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan and Kuwait. Iranian officials reported at least 18 people killed in the U.S. attacks along the southern coast, four of them at a wedding compound in the port town of Kuhestak. No U.S. casualties were reported. Brent crude, the global benchmark oil price, rose above $90 a barrel. Trump said the renewed operation would not last much longer, and that the November midterm election would not set his timeline. He also warned: "If the failed Nation of Iran retaliates for this very justified attack, they will be hit again at a much harder and higher level." Iranian President Mahmoud Pezeshkian said Tehran would immediately resume implementing the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding — the June 17 deal that called for a ceasefire and 60 days of talks — if Washington returned to its own commitments. He made that offer before the latest American strikes.
Catch up
- Aug. 30 — The U.S. destroyed two Iranian rocket launchers loaded to mine the Strait of Hormuz, its first acknowledged action inside Iran since July 29. Iran fired eight missiles at bases in Jordan; all were intercepted.
- Sept. 1 — American forces began hitting IRGC air-defense, radar and mine-laying sites along Iran's southern coast at noon. Trump said a larger attack was "waiting in the wings." Brent crude passed $90 a barrel.
- Sept. 2 — Iran said its retaliation had begun as U.S. strikes near the strait continued. Transits through Hormuz fell by half, from about 10 ships a day to five.
11 earlier issues
- Trump Threatens to Bomb Iranian Bridges and Power Plants for Every Ship Hit in Strait of Hormuz
- Iran fires multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. base in Jordan; all are intercepted
- Iran denies Trump’s claim that new U.S. talks would start Monday
- Cargo ship is struck in the Strait of Hormuz
- Vance says the Iran talks are moving, then calls the war only half over
- Iran won't reopen Hormuz until the US unfreezes its assets and lifts the blockade
- Trump threatens to bomb Oman, the U.S. ally brokering the deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
- Trump declares an "economic D-Day" on Iran as Hormuz traffic runs 85% below normal
- UpdateU.S. goes nearly a month without large Iran strikes as Trump shifts back to sanctions; Hormuz remains closed
- U.S. destroys two Iranian rocket launchers loaded to mine the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at bases in Jordan, all intercepted
- UpdateU.S. bombs two Iranian rocket sites near the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at Jordan
The wedding compound at Kuhestak
- A U.S. missile struck a residential compound in the port town of Kuhestak, near the Strait of Hormuz, while a wedding was under way, according to verified footage and a New York Times weapons analysis that concluded the munition was American: fragments matching an AGM-84H/K SLAM-ER, a missile built to land within about 3 meters of its aim point.
- Iranian sources, CBS News, the Associated Press and NBC News reported four people killed; the Times reported five. The Times and the AP put the wounded at more than 60. These dead are counted inside the at-least-18 figure for the coast, not on top of it.
- The nearest apparent military target, a communications tower, stood roughly 100 meters from the house, per the AP. No one in the U.S. government has said the tower was the target; that is an inference drawn from where the missile landed.
- "The missile completely destroyed the roof of the house," said Ali Mallahi, a fisherman whose daughter's wedding was being celebrated. CENTCOM spokesman Capt. Tim Hawkins said the military was reviewing the reports and would not say whether a formal civilian-harm investigation had been opened. "The U.S. military never targets civilians, unlike the IRGC," he said.
What this retaliation hit, and where the counts stop
- Jordan: 13 ballistic missiles came in, 10 were destroyed, and three fell in remote areas with no casualties.
- Erbil, Iraq: all 10 explosive drones were destroyed, with no casualties or ground damage; Iran's claim of hitting a repair center is unconfirmed.
- Bahrain and Kuwait said attacks were intercepted but published no counts, so 20 of 23 — 87% — is the only interception rate that can be checked.
Related reading
Read more about: Traders put 16.5% odds on U.S. warships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Dec. 31
On Polymarket, a betting site where the price of a contract tracks how likely traders think an event is, traders put the odds of a U.S. warship crossing the Strait of Hormuz by Dec. 31 at 16.5%. A separate contract, on whether the next U.S.-Iran meeting happens on American soil by Sept. 30, prices that at 0.2% — close to impossible.
Two Filipino sailors were killed on the Saudi tanker Sidr; the escorted convoy carried 18 million barrels, while independent trackers still put average flows at 4.19 million barrels a day against 16.63 million before the war.
American drones struck the engine rooms of two Iranian government-owned tankers anchored north of the U.S. blockade line on Tuesday, Sept. 1, under what one U.S. official called a "tanker for tanker" policy approved by Trump. The strikes followed attacks on two commercial tankers near the Musandam peninsula, at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz, each carrying about two million barrels of oil. Saudi Arabia said Iran hit the Saudi-owned Sidr and that two Filipino sailors aboard were killed. Bahri, the Saudi state shipping company that owns the ship, expressed "profound sadness" over the deaths and offered condolences to the families. Iran told a different story: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said both tankers caught fire after hitting mines on a transit route Tehran had not authorized. Maritime trackers placed the Sidr about 30 km northeast of Khasab, Oman, and logged an unknown-projectile strike at 19:52 GMT; a second ship, the Senegal Prosperity, was reported hit by three projectiles minutes later. U.S. officials say these are the first strikes meant as retaliation for attacks on merchant ships rather than enforcement of the American naval blockade of Iran. ([TS]Axios reported a July 7 U.S. strike round on Iranian targets that followed three ship attacks in 24 hours; those hit shore targets, not tankers.)
The record convoy, and what it does not settle
- U.S. forces shot down Iranian drones the same day while escorting what officials called the largest volume of the war: 40 commercial vessels carrying 18 million barrels, per CNN. No U.S. or commercial ship in the convoy was reported hit.
- Officials did not say how long the convoy took to pass through, so 18 million barrels is not a daily flow figure. (TS: the IEA put 2025 average Hormuz crude and oil-products flow at about 20 million barrels per day.)
- CENTCOM's June 20 release reported 55 merchant transits and more than 17 million barrels moved, without defining what counted as one convoy.
What is actually moving through the strait
- @TankerTrackers estimates average crude exports through Hormuz at 4.19 million barrels a day across 186 days of conflict, against 16.63 million a day before the fighting began.
- EIA, using Vortexa data, estimated 4.9 million barrels a day across the second quarter of 2026 — 22.7% of the 21.6 million-bpd average in the last quarter of 2025.
- Kalshi contracts on Hormuz traffic returning to normal price the chance at 2.5% before Oct. 1, 7.5% before Nov. 1 and 23.5% before Jan. 1, 2027.
What the tracking data proves, and what nobody has shown
- Marisks, Kpler and the UK Maritime Trade Operations desk each logged projectile impacts at both ships, but neither Saudi Arabia nor the U.S. has published fragments, launch tracks, radar or satellite imagery tying the strike to Iran.
- U.S. Central Command said its forces finished clearing mines from the international shipping lanes the week before, which does not rule out mines elsewhere.
- No loss or delivery accounting has been published for either ship's cargo.
Related reading
Read more about: Gulf-to-Asia supertanker earnings reached about $650,000 a day by Aug. 28
Freight rates for very large crude carriers running from the Gulf to Asia neared $650,000 a day in late August, with war-risk cover and crew bonuses on top. In July, owners were offering crews six months' extra pay for a single Hormuz crossing — a cost that reaches fuel prices worldwide.
Judge Deborah Boardman's 35-page ruling protects a previously certified nationwide class: Worth knowingThe injunction only protects that certified class, not every U.S.-born child. A child born before Feb. 19, 2025, or one the August order does not target, is outside the class and gains nothing from this ruling..
A federal judge blocked President Trump's newest attempt to limit birthright citizenship. U.S. District Judge Deborah Boardman in Maryland issued a preliminary injunction on Wednesday, Sept. 2, barring enforcement of the executive order Trump signed Aug. 6 that would deny automatic U.S. citizenship to some children born on American soil. The order targeted two narrow groups: U.S.-born children whose parents the administration classifies as "alien enemies," and children of people working for foreign embassies. Boardman wrote that the order "is almost certainly unconstitutional" and that "this Court must, once again, preliminarily enjoin enforcement of the President's most recent attempt to strip the right to citizenship from them." The August order was a narrower rewrite of a broader January 2025 order that had already lost in court. Agencies cannot enforce it against class members while the injunction stands. Any appeal would go to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit.
How the injunction covers people nationwide after the universal-injunction limits
- Boardman used Rule 23(b)(2), which lets one injunction cover a certified class when the government treats everyone in it the same way — not a universal injunction shielding strangers to the case.
- The Supreme Court's restriction on universal injunctions left that class mechanism intact, and it upheld nationwide class relief in Trump v. Barbara.
- The ruling is preliminary: it freezes enforcement while the case proceeds, and does not finally decide whether the order is constitutional.
How the injunction covers people nationwide after the universal-injunction limits
- A class action is a single lawsuit brought on behalf of everyone in a defined group. Boardman used Rule 23(b)(2), which lets one injunction cover a certified class when the government treats everyone in it the same way — not a universal injunction shielding strangers to the case.
- The Supreme Court's restriction on universal injunctions left that class mechanism intact, and it upheld nationwide class relief in Trump v. Barbara.
- The ruling is preliminary: it freezes enforcement while the case proceeds, and does not finally decide whether the order is constitutional.
Quick bites8
Tillis asks Trump to replace Hegseth, citing "inept management"
MS.NOWUpdateRepublican criticism of Hegseth has widened past Driscoll's exit. Thom Tillis (Sen-R North Carolina) asked Trump to replace Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth after Army Secretary Dan Driscoll quit. House Armed Services Chairman Mike Rogers (R-Alabama) said he is "tired of all the churn." The Army now has no Senate-confirmed civilian secretary and no military chief of staff while the U.S. fights Iran.
Sep. 1 — Driscoll resigned after 18 months, following repeated clashes with Hegseth. He is the fourth senior service leader out in recent months.
- More than two dozen senior military officers have been fired or sidelined under Hegseth, per ABC News.
- Hegseth cut seven of 18 names from a two-star promotion list — reportedly the final straw for Driscoll.
- Driscoll's farewell statement praised Hegseth: "We could not have made the progress we did without the support of Secretary Hegseth."
Pentagon pulled decades of Defense Secretary orders records off its classified SIPR network
WASHINGTON POSTUpdateThe Pentagon took Secretary of Defense Orders Book files off an internal portal. The portal runs on SIPRNet, the secret-level network. Cleared military and civilian staff use it for secret work. The books record the orders the defense secretary gives the force. The Post did not say how far back the pulled records went. It also did not say where the files went, or how the Pentagon explained the change.
- Aug. 17 — Centcom answered complaints about life aboard the carrier Lincoln, at sea 260 days, by noting it had among the Navy's fewest mental health cases. Centcom did not give case numbers.
- Aug. 25–26 — ICE detained the father of a deployed Navy sailor after about 20 years in the US. He was released a day later.
- Sep. 1 — Four four-star commanders were reported to have objected to keeping more than 50,000 troops in the Middle East.
Chevron will spend $7 billion over five years to raise Venezuelan output to about 600,000 barrels a day
PBS NEWSHOURChevron picked up added acreage in the Orinoco Belt, and says the plan would more than double what it pumps in Venezuela now. The company has not said what its current output is, and the target depends on terms it has not spelled out.
- Investment: more than $7 billion over five years, as pledged by Chevron
- Target output: roughly 600,000 barrels per day, more than double current levels
- The deal was signed in Caracas on Wednesday, Sept. 2
Employer health plan costs are projected to rise 8.2% in 2027, the biggest jump in over 20 years
THE HILLMercer projects employer health-benefit costs will climb faster in 2027 than in any year in more than two decades. Employers plan to shift part of that cost to workers through higher premium shares and out-of-pocket charges.
Judge won't make Google sell AdX, orders conduct rules instead
WASHINGTON EXAMINERGoogle will not have to sell its ad tech business. Judge Leonie Brinkema, who ruled in April 2025 that the company illegally monopolized ad tech by building AdX and tying it to its ad server, turned down the Justice Department's request for a sale. She ordered changes to Google's conduct instead. Her full opinion is sealed for now so both sides can redact sensitive material.
- Google regulatory-affairs chief Lee-Anne Mulholland said the company was "very pleased the Court rejected the DOJ's proposal to break apart tools that help small businesses reach new customers and grow."
- The Justice Department said it was "one step closer to restoring competition" and is evaluating next steps.
Four doctor groups issued their own flu, COVID and RSV vaccine schedules after CDC skipped fall guidance
PBS NEWSHOURFour major medical groups now urge a flu shot every year for everyone 6 months and older. The groups are the American Academy of Pediatrics, the American Academy of Family Physicians, the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists, and the Infectious Diseases Society of America. They are posting their proof that the shots are safe and that they work. It goes on an AMA site, SpreadTheFacts.org.
- Recommendations cover influenza, COVID-19 and RSV immunization
- CDC has issued no new fall guidance and directs clinicians to the prior year's flu recommendations
- AMA's Dr. Sandra Fryhofer: "There's been a lot of confusion and chaos regarding vaccine recommendations."
House panel unanimously advances bill making data centers pay their own grid-upgrade costs
POLITICOUpdateThe House Energy and Commerce Committee voted unanimously to advance the Ratepayer Protection Act, which would make states weigh whether data centers must pay for the grid upgrades they trigger. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said the sites should not go where locals object. Trump kept promoting the industry.
Polling released Sep. 1 found 70% of Americans oppose a data center near them, including 76% of Democrats and 60% of Republicans. Trump said towns that block them give up jobs, tax revenue and growth.
Also in the file
- Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said data centers do not use water, against community complaints about their consumption.
- Annualized real data-center investment in Q2 2026 was nearly four times its 2022 level, while other private structures investment fell 5% from 2022, per Ernie Tedeschi.
DOJ says states must report migrants without permanent legal status who apply for welfare, or lose federal aid
REUTERSThe Justice Department's Office of Legal Counsel withdrew Clinton-era guidance that read the same welfare-law reporting rule far more narrowly, and now says states must report welfare applicants who lack permanent legal status.
Elections22 races
The midterms · 61 days out · November 3, 2026
D or R take the House / Senate?
today · 7-day panel
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 89%, Kalshi 85%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 52%, Kalshi 48%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.
No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only
How to read thisthe contract, the key, and the week panel
Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.
- two venues, priced separately
- shaded = how far apart they are
- 50% — control flips here
- where it stood 7 days ago
- the last 7 days, on its own scale
- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
Both lines in a week panel are the same contract, priced by two venues — not one line per party. Its colour is whose chance the bar is measuring, which is why a panel can be blue while the verdict beside it reads Republicans favoured.
Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.
The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 4.0pp gap / 4.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.
Who is defending the House and the Senate is sourced, not remembered — House, 2026-07-23 issue: the NDAA passed “216-212, with six Democrats joining a unified Republican majority.”; Senate, 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.”
Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
| Day | U.S. House · Polymarket | U.S. House · Kalshi | U.S. Senate · Polymarket | U.S. Senate · Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days ago | 89% | 85% | 51% | 49% |
| 6 days ago | 89% | 84% | 51% | 48% |
| 5 days ago | 90% | 84% | 51% | 48% |
| 4 days ago | 89% | 84% | 51% | 48% |
| 3 days ago | 89% | 85% | 51% | 48% |
| 2 days ago | 89% | 85% | 52% | 49% |
| yesterday | 89% | 85% | 52% | 48% |
| today | 89% | 85% | 52% | 48% |
The 3 closest of 22 races. Open one, or all of them — every race is on the page either way.
nTexas SenateTalarico50.5%Paxton52.5%books split
POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election
Ken Paxton (R) faces James Talarico (D).
The only race here where the two venues do not agree on who is ahead.
The books name different leaders
Texas Senate
Each line is one book’s lead — the gap between the two candidates, signed. Zero is a tie, and the two venues are on opposite sides of it.
Sep 2, 9:16 PM CT
widest venue gap 4.0ppTexas Senate. Lead in percentage points, positive to Ken Paxton. Kalshi: Paxton ahead by 5 points. Polymarket: Talarico ahead by 2 points. Every day is in the table below.
today
- Paxton+5%Kalshi
- Talarico+2%Polymarket
- Paxton48.5%Polymarket
- Paxton52.5%Kalshi
- Talarico50.5%Polymarket
- Talarico47.5%Kalshi
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. The lead is the gap between the two, in points. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
The lead is one candidate’s price minus the other’s, at the same venue on the same day — never one book’s Tuesday against the other’s Thursday. It is drawn only where a venue priced both candidates, so a line starts late rather than being stretched across days it was never quoted over.
A day inside a tenth of a point is printed as levelrather than being rounded onto somebody’s side: on a chart whose whole subject is who is in front, a dead heat shown as a win is the one error that cannot be recovered from the drawing.
The markets: Ken Paxton Polymarket, Kalshi · James Talarico Polymarket, Kalshi
Every price behind the chart, and the lead it produces. Texas Senate, snapshot Sep 2, 9:16 PM CT. Day Paxton · Polymarket Talarico · Polymarket Lead · Polymarket Paxton · Kalshi Talarico · Kalshi Lead · Kalshi 7 days ago 48.5% 49.5% Talarico +1% 51.0% 49.0% Paxton +2% 6 days ago 49.5% 49.5% level 51.0% 49.0% Paxton +2% 5 days ago 50.5% 49.5% Paxton +1% 51.0% 50.0% Paxton +1% 4 days ago 48.5% 50.0% Talarico +1.5% 50.0% 50.0% level 3 days ago 48.5% 50.5% Talarico +2% 51.0% 51.0% level 2 days ago 48.5% 50.5% Talarico +2% 51.0% 50.0% Paxton +1% yesterday 48.5% 50.5% Talarico +2% 51.0% 50.0% Paxton +1% today 48.5% 50.5% Talarico +2% 52.5% 47.5% Paxton +5% rOhio Senate
POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election
Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).
A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Ohio Senate
Sep 2, 9:16 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 54.5%, Kalshi 53.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 45.5%, Kalshi 47.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Sherrod Brown 54% · Jon Husted 47%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Sherrod Brown (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$111K55.5%Kalshi1.1M contracts · 53%/54%55.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.0ppJon Husted (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$78.1K45.5%Kalshi1.5M contracts · 46%/48%47.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio Senate, snapshot Sep 2, 9:16 PM CT. Day Sherrod Brown · Polymarket Sherrod Brown · Kalshi Jon Husted · Polymarket Jon Husted · Kalshi 7 days ago 55.5% 55.0% 45.5% 47% 6 days ago 54.5% 54.0% 45.5% 47% 5 days ago 54.5% 55.0% 45.5% 47% 4 days ago 54.5% 56.0% 45.5% 46% 3 days ago 54.5% 55.0% 45.5% 46% 2 days ago 54.5% 55.0% 45.5% 46% yesterday 54.5% 54.0% 45.5% 47% today 54.5% 53.5% 45.5% 47% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
lOhio governor
POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election
Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).
Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Ohio governor
Sep 2, 9:16 PM CT
widest venue gap 4.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 53.5%, Kalshi 57.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 45.5%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Amy Acton 57% · Vivek Ramaswamy 44%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Amy Acton (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$80.2K54.5%Kalshi699K contracts · 57%/58%57.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-1.0ppVivek Ramaswamy (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$96.5K46.5%Kalshi762K contracts · 43%/44%47.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio governor, snapshot Sep 2, 9:16 PM CT. Day Amy Acton · Polymarket Amy Acton · Kalshi Vivek Ramaswamy · Polymarket Vivek Ramaswamy · Kalshi 7 days ago 54.5% 57.0% 46.5% 47.0% 6 days ago 53.5% 56.0% 45.5% 45.0% 5 days ago 53.5% 56.0% 46.5% 44.0% 4 days ago 53.5% 57.0% 46.5% 44.0% 3 days ago 53.5% 57.0% 46.5% 44.0% 2 days ago 53.5% 57.0% 45.5% 43.0% yesterday 53.5% 58.0% 45.5% 42.0% today 53.5% 57.5% 45.5% 43.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
The other 19 races
Senate8 of 10
oAlaska Senate
POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election
Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).
A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Alaska Senate
Sep 2, 9:16 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 63.5%, Kalshi 66.0%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 36.5%, Kalshi 35.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Mary Peltola 64% · Dan Sullivan 36%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Mary Peltola (D)7 days agoPolymarket$244K66.5%Kalshi77.3K contracts · 65%/67%64.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-3.0ppDan Sullivan (R)7 days agoPolymarket$137K34.5%Kalshi72.2K contracts · 33%/37%41.0%venue gap6.5pp7-day move+2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska Senate, snapshot Sep 2, 9:16 PM CT. Day Mary Peltola · Polymarket Mary Peltola · Kalshi Dan Sullivan · Polymarket Dan Sullivan · Kalshi 7 days ago 66.5% 64% 34.5% 41% 6 days ago 65.0% 65% 35.5% 39% 5 days ago 64.5% 64% 34.5% 39% 4 days ago 65.0% 63% 34.5% 36% 3 days ago 63.5% 62% 36.5% 36% 2 days ago 63.5% 65% 36.5% 34% yesterday 63.5% 67% 36.5% 33% today 63.5% 66% 36.5% 35% wGeorgia Senate
POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election
Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia Senate
Sep 2, 9:16 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.3pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 93.5%, Kalshi 93.2%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 6.40%, Kalshi 6.55%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.3pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jon Ossoff 93% · Mike Collins 6.5%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jon Ossoff (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$49.2K93.5%Kalshi354K contracts · 93%/94%91.7%venue gap1.8pp7-day move0.0ppMike Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$74.5K6.35%Kalshi838K contracts · 6.5%/6.6%7.60%venue gap1.2pp7-day move+0.1ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia Senate, snapshot Sep 2, 9:16 PM CT. Day Jon Ossoff · Polymarket Jon Ossoff · Kalshi Mike Collins · Polymarket Mike Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 93.5% 91.7% 6.35% 7.60% 6 days ago 93.5% 92.1% 6.35% 8.00% 5 days ago 93.5% 92.7% 6.35% 7.90% 4 days ago 93.5% 92.6% 6.40% 8.10% 3 days ago 93.5% 92.8% 6.40% 7.70% 2 days ago 93.5% 93.0% 6.45% 7.50% yesterday 93.5% 93.4% 6.40% 7.40% today 93.5% 93.2% 6.40% 6.55% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
pIowa Senate
POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election
Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).
An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Iowa Senate
Sep 2, 9:16 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 64%, Kalshi 62%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 37.0%, Kalshi 38.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Ashley Hinson 62% · Josh Turek 38%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Ashley Hinson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$119K60.5%Kalshi1.0M contracts · 61%/63%58.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+3.5ppJosh Turek (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$109K40.5%Kalshi1.1M contracts · 38%/39%42.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-3.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa Senate, snapshot Sep 2, 9:16 PM CT. Day Ashley Hinson · Polymarket Ashley Hinson · Kalshi Josh Turek · Polymarket Josh Turek · Kalshi 7 days ago 60.5% 58% 40.5% 42.0% 6 days ago 60.5% 59% 40.5% 42.0% 5 days ago 61.0% 59% 39.5% 42.0% 4 days ago 60.5% 59% 39.5% 42.0% 3 days ago 64.0% 59% 37.0% 41.0% 2 days ago 64.0% 62% 37.0% 39.0% yesterday 64.0% 62% 37.0% 40.0% today 64.0% 62% 37.0% 38.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
mMaine Senate
POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election
Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).
Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Maine Senate
Sep 2, 9:16 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 69.5%, Kalshi 68.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 31.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Troy Jackson 69% · Susan Collins 31%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Troy Jackson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$735K69.5%Kalshi1.9M contracts · 68%/69%69.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppSusan Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$496K31.5%Kalshi2.7M contracts · 31%/32%32.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Maine Senate, snapshot Sep 2, 9:16 PM CT. Day Troy Jackson · Polymarket Troy Jackson · Kalshi Susan Collins · Polymarket Susan Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 69.5% 69.0% 31.5% 32.0% 6 days ago 69.5% 67.0% 31.5% 35.0% 5 days ago 69.5% 69.0% 30.5% 32.0% 4 days ago 69.5% 70.0% 30.5% 31.0% 3 days ago 69.5% 70.0% 30.5% 31.0% 2 days ago 69.5% 70.0% 30.5% 31.0% yesterday 69.5% 70.0% 30.5% 30.0% today 69.5% 68.5% 30.5% 31.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
qMichigan Senate
POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election
Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Michigan Senate
Sep 2, 9:16 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 64.5%, Kalshi 63.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 35.5%, Kalshi 36.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 64% · Mike Rogers 36%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Abdul El-Sayed (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$351K64.5%Kalshi1.2M contracts · 63%/64%62.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move0.0ppMike Rogers (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$293K35.5%Kalshi1.8M contracts · 36%/37%40.0%venue gap4.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan Senate, snapshot Sep 2, 9:16 PM CT. Day Abdul El-Sayed · Polymarket Abdul El-Sayed · Kalshi Mike Rogers · Polymarket Mike Rogers · Kalshi 7 days ago 64.5% 62.0% 35.5% 40.0% 6 days ago 64.5% 61.0% 35.5% 40.0% 5 days ago 64.5% 63.0% 35.5% 39.0% 4 days ago 64.5% 63.0% 35.5% 37.0% 3 days ago 64.5% 64.0% 35.5% 37.0% 2 days ago 64.5% 64.0% 35.5% 37.0% yesterday 64.5% 63.0% 35.5% 37.0% today 64.5% 63.5% 35.5% 36.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
xNebraska Senate
POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election
Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Nebraska Senate
Sep 2, 9:16 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 69.0%, Kalshi 69.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 29.5%, Kalshi 30.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Pete Ricketts 69% · Dan Osborn 30%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Pete Ricketts (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$102K70.5%Kalshi288K contracts · 69%/70%70.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.5ppDan Osborn (I)7 days agoPolymarket$27.1K29.5%Kalshi384K contracts · 29%/31%30.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nebraska Senate, snapshot Sep 2, 9:16 PM CT. Day Pete Ricketts · Polymarket Pete Ricketts · Kalshi Dan Osborn · Polymarket Dan Osborn · Kalshi 7 days ago 70.5% 70.0% 29.5% 30% 6 days ago 70.5% 70.0% 29.5% 31% 5 days ago 70.5% 70.0% 29.5% 29% 4 days ago 70.0% 70.0% 29.5% 30% 3 days ago 70.5% 70.0% 29.5% 31% 2 days ago 68.5% 69.0% 29.5% 30% yesterday 69.0% 70.0% 29.5% 31% today 69.0% 69.5% 29.5% 30% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
yNew Hampshire Senate
POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election
Chris Pappas (D) leads the unresolved Democratic primary; John E. Sununu (R) leads the unresolved Republican primary.
Neither nomination is official yet, though the market already treats both as decided — the Democratic side lost about three points in a week.
Two markets, one question
New Hampshire Senate
Sep 2, 9:16 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 83.5%, Kalshi 83.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 16.5%, Kalshi 15.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Chris Pappas 84% · John E. Sununu 16%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Chris Pappas (D)*7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$62.6K86.5%Kalshi86.5K contracts · 83%/84%86.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-3.0ppJohn E. Sununu (R)*7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$27.8K14.5%Kalshi162K contracts · 15%/16%14.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. New Hampshire Senate, snapshot Sep 2, 9:16 PM CT. Day Chris Pappas · Polymarket Chris Pappas · Kalshi John E. Sununu · Polymarket John E. Sununu · Kalshi 7 days ago 86.5% 86.0% 14.5% 14.0% 6 days ago 85.5% 85.0% 14.5% 17.0% 5 days ago 84.5% 84.0% 14.5% 17.0% 4 days ago 84.5% 84.0% 16.0% 18.0% 3 days ago 83.5% 84.0% 16.5% 17.0% 2 days ago 83.5% 83.0% 16.5% 17.0% yesterday 83.5% 84.0% 16.5% 18.0% today 83.5% 83.5% 16.5% 15.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
vNorth Carolina Senate
POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election
Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
North Carolina Senate
Sep 2, 9:16 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.4pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 91.50%, Kalshi 91.15%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 8.5%, Kalshi 8.9%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.4pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Roy Cooper 91% · Michael Whatley 8.9%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Roy Cooper (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$43.0K91.5%Kalshi1.3M contracts · 91%/91%91.8%venue gap0.3pp7-day move0.0ppMichael Whatley (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$59.8K8.5%Kalshi464K contracts · 8.6%/9.2%8.4%venue gap0.1pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. North Carolina Senate, snapshot Sep 2, 9:16 PM CT. Day Roy Cooper · Polymarket Roy Cooper · Kalshi Michael Whatley · Polymarket Michael Whatley · Kalshi 7 days ago 91.5% 91.80% 8.5% 8.4% 6 days ago 91.5% 91.50% 9.0% 7.8% 5 days ago 91.5% 92.30% 9.0% 8.8% 4 days ago 92.0% 91.10% 8.0% 9.8% 3 days ago 91.5% 92.50% 8.0% 9.1% 2 days ago 91.5% 91.20% 8.5% 9.2% yesterday 91.5% 91.20% 8.5% 9.1% today 91.5% 91.15% 8.5% 8.9% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
Governors11 of 12
aaAlaska governor
POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election
Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).
Wilson holds a commanding lead, but no race here has moved more this week: Begich is down about ten points.
Two markets, one question
Alaska governor
Sep 2, 9:16 PM CT
widest venue gap 4.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 35.5%, Kalshi 31.5%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 1.25%, Kalshi 0.45%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Bernadette Wilson 35% · Tom Begich 0.8%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Bernadette Wilson (R)7 days agoPolymarket$169K36.5%Kalshi49.2K contracts · 31%/32%36.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.0ppTom Begich (D)7 days agoPolymarket$158K3.25%Kalshi228K contracts · 0.3%/0.6%18.00%venue gap15pp7-day move-2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska governor, snapshot Sep 2, 9:16 PM CT. Day Bernadette Wilson · Polymarket Bernadette Wilson · Kalshi Tom Begich · Polymarket Tom Begich · Kalshi 7 days ago 36.5% 36.0% 3.25% 18.00% 6 days ago 35.5% 35.0% 1.35% 14.00% 5 days ago 35.5% 36.0% 1.40% 1.00% 4 days ago 35.5% 37.0% 1.30% 0.10% 3 days ago 35.5% 36.0% 1.25% 1.00% 2 days ago 35.5% 30.0% 1.25% 0.10% yesterday 35.5% 33.0% 1.25% 0.30% today 35.5% 31.5% 1.25% 0.45% acArizona governor
POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election
Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Arizona governor
Sep 2, 9:16 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 87.5%, Kalshi 86.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 12.5%, Kalshi 14.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Katie Hobbs 87% · Andy Biggs 14%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Katie Hobbs (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$31.2K87.5%Kalshi305K contracts · 86%/87%88.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppAndy Biggs (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$36.2K12.5%Kalshi237K contracts · 13%/15%13.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Arizona governor, snapshot Sep 2, 9:16 PM CT. Day Katie Hobbs · Polymarket Katie Hobbs · Kalshi Andy Biggs · Polymarket Andy Biggs · Kalshi 7 days ago 87.5% 88.0% 12.5% 13% 6 days ago 87.5% 88.0% 12.5% 14% 5 days ago 87.5% 89.0% 12.5% 14% 4 days ago 87.5% 88.0% 12.5% 14% 3 days ago 87.5% 88.0% 12.5% 15% 2 days ago 87.5% 88.0% 12.5% 15% yesterday 87.5% 88.0% 12.5% 14% today 87.5% 86.5% 12.5% 14% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
agFlorida governor
POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election
Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).
Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Florida governor
Sep 2, 9:16 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 81.5%, Kalshi 80.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 19.0%, Kalshi 18.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Byron Donalds 81% · David Jolly 19%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Byron Donalds (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$27.0K79.5%Kalshi479K contracts · 80%/81%82.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+2.0ppDavid Jolly (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$31.1K19%Kalshi260K contracts · 18%/19%19%venue gap0.0pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Florida governor, snapshot Sep 2, 9:16 PM CT. Day Byron Donalds · Polymarket Byron Donalds · Kalshi David Jolly · Polymarket David Jolly · Kalshi 7 days ago 79.5% 82.0% 19.0% 19.0% 6 days ago 80.5% 83.0% 18.5% 19.0% 5 days ago 81.0% 83.0% 19.5% 18.0% 4 days ago 81.0% 84.0% 19.5% 17.0% 3 days ago 81.5% 81.0% 19.5% 19.0% 2 days ago 81.5% 81.0% 19.0% 20.0% yesterday 81.5% 81.0% 19.0% 17.0% today 81.5% 80.5% 19.0% 18.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
tGeorgia governor
POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).
Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia governor
Sep 2, 9:16 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 59.0%, Kalshi 58.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 40.5%, Kalshi 42.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Keisha Lance Bottoms 59% · Rick Jackson 42%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$32.9K59%Kalshi277K contracts · 58%/59%61%venue gap2.0pp7-day move0.0ppRick Jackson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$37.7K40%Kalshi376K contracts · 42%/43%41%venue gap1.0pp7-day move+0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia governor, snapshot Sep 2, 9:16 PM CT. Day Keisha Lance Bottoms · Polymarket Keisha Lance Bottoms · Kalshi Rick Jackson · Polymarket Rick Jackson · Kalshi 7 days ago 59.0% 61.0% 40.0% 41.0% 6 days ago 59.0% 59.0% 39.5% 41.0% 5 days ago 59.0% 60.0% 39.0% 42.0% 4 days ago 59.0% 59.0% 39.0% 41.0% 3 days ago 60.5% 60.0% 38.0% 41.0% 2 days ago 59.0% 60.0% 40.0% 41.0% yesterday 59.0% 59.0% 40.5% 41.0% today 59.0% 58.5% 40.5% 42.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
zIowa governor
POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election
Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Iowa governor
Sep 2, 9:16 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 76.5%, Kalshi 75.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 24.5%, Kalshi 25.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Rob Sand 76% · Zach Lahn 25%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Rob Sand (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$31.2K74.5%Kalshi256K contracts · 75%/76%76.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+2.0ppZach Lahn (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$43.8K25.5%Kalshi292K contracts · 25%/26%26.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa governor, snapshot Sep 2, 9:16 PM CT. Day Rob Sand · Polymarket Rob Sand · Kalshi Zach Lahn · Polymarket Zach Lahn · Kalshi 7 days ago 74.5% 76.0% 25.5% 26.0% 6 days ago 74.5% 75.0% 25.5% 27.0% 5 days ago 74.5% 75.0% 25.5% 27.0% 4 days ago 75.5% 74.0% 24.5% 26.0% 3 days ago 75.5% 77.0% 24.5% 26.0% 2 days ago 76.5% 75.0% 24.5% 27.0% yesterday 76.5% 76.0% 24.5% 27.0% today 76.5% 75.5% 24.5% 25.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
abMichigan governor
POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election
Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan governor
Sep 2, 9:16 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 90.5%, Kalshi 89.8%; John James (R): Polymarket 9.5%, Kalshi 12.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jocelyn Benson 90% · John James 11%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jocelyn Benson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$48.4K91.5%Kalshi73.1K contracts · 87%/93%89.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-1.0ppJohn James (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$154K8.5%Kalshi126K contracts · 10%/14%12.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan governor, snapshot Sep 2, 9:16 PM CT. Day Jocelyn Benson · Polymarket Jocelyn Benson · Kalshi John James · Polymarket John James · Kalshi 7 days ago 91.5% 89.0% 8.5% 12% 6 days ago 91.0% 88.0% 8.5% 12% 5 days ago 90.5% 92.9% 8.0% 15% 4 days ago 92.0% 89.0% 8.0% 10% 3 days ago 92.0% 87.0% 8.0% 15% 2 days ago 91.0% 87.0% 8.5% 14% yesterday 90.5% 90.2% 9.0% 12% today 90.5% 89.8% 9.5% 12% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
uNevada governor
POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election
Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).
Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Republican side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Nevada governor
Sep 2, 9:16 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 57.5%, Kalshi 60.5%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 40.5%, Kalshi 41.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Joe Lombardo 60% · Aaron Ford 41%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Joe Lombardo (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$65.8K59.5%Kalshi238K contracts · 60%/61%61.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-2.0ppAaron Ford (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$23.6K41%Kalshi482K contracts · 40%/42%—venue gap—7-day move-0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nevada governor, snapshot Sep 2, 9:16 PM CT. Day Joe Lombardo · Polymarket Joe Lombardo · Kalshi Aaron Ford · Polymarket Aaron Ford · Kalshi 7 days ago 59.5% 61.0% 41.0% — 6 days ago 59.5% 61.0% 41.0% 42% 5 days ago 59.5% 60.0% 41.0% 41% 4 days ago 60.5% 60.0% 40.0% 40% 3 days ago 57.0% 60.0% 40.5% 42% 2 days ago 57.5% 55.0% 40.5% 42% yesterday 57.5% 58.0% 40.5% 41% today 57.5% 60.5% 40.5% 41% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
aeNew York governor
POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election
Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
New York governor
Sep 2, 9:16 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.2pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 94.50%, Kalshi 93.75%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 5.50%, Kalshi 6.65%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.2pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Kathy Hochul 94% · Bruce Blakeman 6.6%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Kathy Hochul (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$49.3K94.5%Kalshi278K contracts · 94%/94%94.6%venue gap0.1pp7-day move0.0ppBruce Blakeman (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$55.5K5.0%Kalshi737K contracts · 6.2%/7.1%6.4%venue gap1.4pp7-day move+0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. New York governor, snapshot Sep 2, 9:16 PM CT. Day Kathy Hochul · Polymarket Kathy Hochul · Kalshi Bruce Blakeman · Polymarket Bruce Blakeman · Kalshi 7 days ago 94.5% 94.60% 5.0% 6.40% 6 days ago 94.5% 94.10% 5.0% 6.10% 5 days ago 94.5% 94.30% 5.0% 6.20% 4 days ago 94.5% 94.10% 5.5% 6.20% 3 days ago 94.5% 94.00% 5.5% 6.60% 2 days ago 94.5% 94.10% 5.0% 7.70% yesterday 94.5% 94.00% 5.5% 7.50% today 94.5% 93.75% 5.5% 6.65% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
afPennsylvania governor
POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election
Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Pennsylvania governor
Sep 2, 9:16 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.9pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 96.7%, Kalshi 97.1%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.3%, Kalshi 3.2%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.9pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 4–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Josh Shapiro 97% · Stacy Garrity 3.1%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Josh Shapiro (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$7.5K95.5%Kalshi99.1K contracts · 97%/98%—venue gap—7-day move+1.2ppStacy Garrity (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$41.6K2.75%Kalshi391K contracts · 2.7%/3.7%—venue gap—7-day move-0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Pennsylvania governor, snapshot Sep 2, 9:16 PM CT. Day Josh Shapiro · Polymarket Josh Shapiro · Kalshi Stacy Garrity · Polymarket Stacy Garrity · Kalshi 7 days ago 95.5% — 2.75% — 6 days ago 95.5% — 2.75% — 5 days ago 95.5% — 2.50% 2.9% 4 days ago 95.5% — 2.25% 4.9% 3 days ago 95.5% 96.0% 2.30% 4.9% 2 days ago 95.5% 97.7% 2.30% 4.3% yesterday 96.7% 96.7% 2.30% 4.3% today 96.7% 97.1% 2.30% 3.2% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
adTexas governor
POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election
Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead after the Democratic side gained about four points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Texas governor
Sep 2, 9:16 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 81.05%, Kalshi 81.50%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 18.5%, Kalshi 19.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Greg Abbott 81% · Gina Hinojosa 19%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Greg Abbott (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$40.6K82.6%Kalshi166K contracts · 81%/82%88.0%venue gap5.4pp7-day move-1.5ppGina Hinojosa (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$51.3K17.5%Kalshi614K contracts · 19%/20%13.0%venue gap4.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas governor, snapshot Sep 2, 9:16 PM CT. Day Greg Abbott · Polymarket Greg Abbott · Kalshi Gina Hinojosa · Polymarket Gina Hinojosa · Kalshi 7 days ago 82.60% 88.0% 17.5% 13.0% 6 days ago 82.35% 86.0% 18.5% 15.0% 5 days ago 83.05% 86.0% 16.0% 16.0% 4 days ago 78.75% 86.0% 17.5% 16.0% 3 days ago 81.55% 85.0% 19.0% 16.0% 2 days ago 81.75% 85.0% 18.5% 17.0% yesterday 81.00% 84.0% 18.5% 18.0% today 81.05% 81.5% 18.5% 19.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
sWisconsin governor
POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election
David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).
An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Wisconsin governor
Sep 2, 9:16 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 82.5%, Kalshi 79.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 18.5%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: David Crowley 81% · Tom Tiffany 20%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
David Crowley (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$293K80.5%Kalshi447K contracts · 79%/80%80.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+2.0ppTom Tiffany (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$263K19.5%Kalshi466K contracts · 20%/21%21.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Wisconsin governor, snapshot Sep 2, 9:16 PM CT. Day David Crowley · Polymarket David Crowley · Kalshi Tom Tiffany · Polymarket Tom Tiffany · Kalshi 7 days ago 80.5% 80.0% 19.5% 21.0% 6 days ago 80.5% 78.0% 19.5% 20.0% 5 days ago 80.5% 80.0% 19.5% 21.0% 4 days ago 81.5% 79.0% 19.5% 21.0% 3 days ago 81.5% 80.0% 19.5% 20.0% 2 days ago 82.5% 80.0% 18.5% 19.0% yesterday 82.5% 78.0% 18.5% 21.0% today 82.5% 79.5% 18.5% 20.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
Also in elections3
iMore than 20 states tell court USPS ballot-verification rules cannot be met before November
STATELINE: More than 20 states tell court USPS ballot-verification rules cannot be met before November
More than 20 Democratic-led states told the court the ballot-verification system cannot be running before November. The whistleblower's attorney says USPS records could back the claim that the rollout went untested. To comply, the states said, they would have to redesign envelopes and win USPS approval. They would also have to meet new barcode standards, upload voter data and retrain officials. That timetable would be "impossible" in some states and "chaos" in others. Republican backers said the rules mostly make existing USPS advice mandatory.
[PREVIOUSLY]
A federal judge left Trump's mail-ballot verification order blocked on Aug. 31, finding the Postal Service likely had no authority to impose the rule, and set a Sept. 3 hearing on a longer freeze. On Sept. 1 a whistleblower disclosure released by Richard Blumenthal (Sen-D Connecticut) said USPS built the verification portal in three months and never tested it before rollout.
Whistleblower's attorney says USPS records can back the untested-rollout claim.
jImmigrant-rights group sues DHS and DOJ to stop federal database checks of voter rolls
AP: Immigrant-rights group sues DHS and DOJ to stop federal database checks of voter rolls
The Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights asked a court to halt the checks. Its complaint says the databases hold old or wrong data. That bad data would flag naturalized citizens as ineligible to vote, the group says. It also says Congress never approved the program. Executive director Angelica Salas called it "voter intimidation."
- The UCLA Voting Rights Project filed the case.
- DHS and DOJ have not responded to the suit.
Filed in federal court in Washington by the UCLA Voting Rights Project.
kGermany blames Russia for August 4 drone bombing at Leipzig airport, closes Russian consulate in Bonn
BBC NEWS: Germany blames Russia for August 4 drone bombing at Leipzig airport, closes Russian consulate in Bonn
Germany has shut the Russian consulate in Bonn and closed the Russian House. The move answers the August 4 drone bombing at Leipzig airport. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called Leipzig "a new escalation on European Union soil directly attributed to Russia."
What was found:
- One drone was defused. A third turned up at the airport ten days later.
- Danish intelligence reported plans for Russian attacks on Danish and Ukrainian defense firms in Denmark, using people hired online.
Berlin also shutters the Russian House cultural institution.
“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Sep 2, 9:16 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.
Not news news1 story
Exports of diesel and related fuels rose about 28% over the past year even as domestic stocks tightened; the price is up 33 cents in the past month alone.
The national average price of diesel reached $5.69 a gallon on Wednesday, up 33 cents in a month and 54% from a year earlier, as Middle East strikes and Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries squeezed global supply. U.S. inventories in late August fell to seasonal levels not seen since the 1980s, even as American refiners raised exports roughly 28% over the preceding year and booked stronger margins. ([TS]EIA weekly data show 103.4 million barrels of commercial distillate for the week ending Aug. 21, after a 2.2-million-barrel draw.) The White House said Donald Trump met with refinery executives about the squeeze. "This was not a 'drill, baby, drill' meeting," deputy press secretary Kush Desai said. "This was a 'refine, baby, refine' meeting."
A Pennsylvania school district's budget showed on Aug. 30 how war-driven diesel costs reach local spending. On Sept. 1 U.S. crude passed $90 a barrel, up 12% in a week, and the emergency oil reserve fell to 286.6 million barrels, its lowest since 1982.
What the emergency diesel reserve covers, and who gets the exports
- The Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve holds 1 million barrels — about 6.3 hours of national distillate use at the recent 3.8 million barrels a day.
- Releasing it requires the president to first declare a severe energy-supply interruption under the Energy Policy and Conservation Act, the 1975 law that created the federal fuel reserves.
- In June, the largest single buyer of U.S. distillate exports was Mexico at 8.65 million barrels, 20% of the month's total.