Trump names Adam Telle acting Army secretary, effective immediately, after Driscoll resigned

News news2 stories

Ongoing1 earlier update3 days

This story has run 2 times over 3 days, starting Sep 1.

Sep 1Army Secretary Dan Driscoll resigns after 18 months, following clashes with Hegseth
Sep 4UpdateTrump names Adam Telle acting Army secretary, effective immediately, after Driscoll resigned — this issue

THE WALL STREET JOURNALUpdateHegseth's Pentagon

Trump names Adam Telle acting Army secretary, effective immediately, after Driscoll resigned

Telle, the Army's assistant secretary for civil works, is a former Senate Republican aide with no military service; Trump has not said whether he will nominate him permanently.

Trump named Adam Telle, the Army's assistant secretary for civil works, as acting Army secretary effective immediately, filling the vacancy left by Dan Driscoll's resignation this week after clashes with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Telle is a longtime Senate Republican aide with no military service, confirmed to his current post 72-22 in August 2025; Trump has not said whether he will nominate him permanently. Trump called Telle "a Great Patriot, who is respected by all." Hegseth added: "Huge congrats to Adam. Strong and whip smart. He is indeed a great Patriot — and will be an immediate asset to the @USArmy."

Catch upwhat happened before · 1 earlier issue

Apr. 2, 2026 — Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth forced out Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George; Gen. Christopher LaNeve has run the job in an acting capacity ever since.
Sept. 1 — Army Secretary Dan Driscoll resigned after about 18 months, the fourth senior service leader out in recent months, following repeated clashes with Hegseth.
Sept. 3 — Sen. Thom Tillis (Sen-R North Carolina) asked Trump to replace Hegseth, citing "inept management," leaving the Army with no Senate-confirmed secretary and no Senate-confirmed chief of staff.

Sep 1Army Secretary Dan Driscoll resigns after 18 months, following clashes with Hegseth

BackgroundWhat Telle's civil works job did not put him in charge of3 facts

Civil works covers waterways, ports, flood control and the Army Corps of Engineers' non-military work — a budget and infrastructure lane.
The job carries no authority over personnel policy, force structure or unit readiness, the areas where Driscoll and Hegseth clashed.
A permanent nomination would need only a simple majority; with 53 Republican senators, a repeat of the 22 no votes would not stop him.

Ongoing3 earlier updates16 days

This story has run 4 times over 16 days, starting Aug 19.

Aug 19Texas Governor Abbott refuses to hand over ICE officer charged in Minneapolis shooting, Minnesota sues
Aug 27Judge rejects Minnesota’s bid to force Texas to extradite ICE agent Christian Castro
Aug 28Texas releases ICE officer after Minnesota’s extradition request goes unsigned for 90 days
Sep 4ICE officer Christian Castro indicted on 6 counts of lying to the FBI about shooting a Venezuelan man through a closed door — this issue

BBC NEWSICE shootings

ICE officer Christian Castro indicted on 6 counts of lying to the FBI about shooting a Venezuelan man through a closed door

ProPublica reports Justice Department leaders in Washington overruled the lead prosecutor, who wanted a civil rights charge; that prosecutor was fired the same day.

A federal grand jury indicted Immigration and Customs Enforcement officer Christian Castro on six counts of making false statements over the Jan. 14, 2026 shooting of Julio Cesar Sosa-Celis, a Venezuelan immigrant, in Minneapolis. Castro told investigators he was hit twice in the head with a shovel and attacked with a broom handle before he fired. Prosecutors say surveillance video shows Sosa-Celis dropping the shovel and running into the house before Castro reached the door, a city gunshot sensor recorded the shot as Castro's arms were raised toward a closed door, and Castro's medical records show no head injury — only an abrasion near his thumb. The bullet went through the door, struck Sosa-Celis in the leg and lodged in the wall of a child's bedroom. ProPublica reported that Justice Department leadership in Washington overrode the lead federal prosecutor in Minnesota, Assistant U.S. Attorney Matthew Evans, who wanted a civil rights charge under Section 242. Evans wrote to victims' lawyers: "This is being directed by the Main Justice and the US Attorney. I objected in the strongest possible terms and fought it as hard as I could. It wasn't enough." NBC News reports Evans was fired as the indictment became public on Wednesday, Sept. 3, and that two sources say he is under investigation for alleged obstruction of a grand jury probe. Castro is not in custody. He walked out of a Texas jail last week after roughly three months, once Gov. Greg Abbott declined to sign Minnesota's extradition warrant and the state's 90-day hold expired.

What the video undid after the shootingFederal prosecutors dropped their own assault charges against Sosa-Celis and Alfredo Aljorna, citing evidence "materially…3 details

Federal prosecutors dropped their own assault charges against Sosa-Celis and Alfredo Aljorna, citing evidence "materially inconsistent" with agents' hearing testimony.
Then-Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem had called the encounter "an attempted murder of federal law enforcement."
Sosa-Celis plans to seek civil damages from the federal government, per the ACLU of Minnesota.

Quick bites10

Panetta says Hegseth is "undermining the strength" of the military after 6 Army officers are pulled from the two-star promotion list
THE HILL Hegseth's Pentagon
Former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said Pete Hegseth is damaging the armed forces through constant churn at the top, and that repairing it will take "several years, or a decade". The six officers were cut from a slate of 18 a peer review board had already approved; two are Black and two are women, and the Pentagon has given no reason. The criticism followed Army Secretary Dan Driscoll's resignation on Sept. 1.

At least 20 uniformed and civilian defense leaders have been fired, forced out or have resigned since Hegseth took office in January 2025, per a CBS News tally.

A May 2025 Hegseth memo ordered 20% cuts to four-star and general-officer ranks and 10% cuts more broadly.

Days earlier, Hegseth blocked four other officers from one-star promotions; some had worked for two commanders he had already pushed out.

Ongoing1
This story has run 2 times over 4 days, starting Aug 31.
Aug 31Military leaders told Hegseth prolonged Iran operations would leave the U.S. exposed elsewhere
Sep 4Panetta says Hegseth is "undermining the strength" of the military after 6 Army officers are pulled from the two-star promotion list — this issue
Reuters weapons experts say a US munition made a direct hit on the Iranian wedding house that killed 5
REUTERS Iran war
Four weapons experts who reviewed verified photos and video of the site at Kuhestak, in Sirik county near the Strait of Hormuz, told Reuters the damage points to a munition that detonated on or just above the roof of the house — a direct hit, not stray fragments. Trevor Ball, a former US Army ordnance disposal technician, identified debris consistent with a Joint Standoff Weapon, a US air-dropped glide bomb. The Iranian Red Crescent Society says five people were killed and 67 wounded in the strike on the night of Tuesday, Sept. 1. Asked about it Thursday, Sept. 3, Vice President JD Vance said he was "extremely skeptical" of the toll and did not think the US had "any information one way or the other."

The house sits about 112 meters from a telecommunications tower the US also hit that night; the experts said the blast pattern is inconsistent with fragments carrying that far.

Iran's Red Crescent filed a letter with the International Criminal Court on Thursday, Sept. 3, urging a war-crimes investigation — its first such claim against the US military.

No senator or House member has sent a letter, sought a hearing, or filed a resolution over the Kuhestak strike.

Ongoing13
This story has run 14 times over 43 days, starting Jul 23.
Jul 23Trump Threatens to Bomb Iranian Bridges and Power Plants for Every Ship Hit in Strait of Hormuz
Jul 28Iran fires multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. base in Jordan; all are intercepted
Aug 4Iran denies Trump’s claim that new U.S. talks would start Monday
Aug 5Cargo ship is struck in the Strait of Hormuz
Aug 9Vance says the Iran talks are moving, then calls the war only half over
Aug 10Iran won't reopen Hormuz until the US unfreezes its assets and lifts the blockade
Aug 18Trump threatens to bomb Oman, the U.S. ally brokering the deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
Aug 20Trump declares an "economic D-Day" on Iran as Hormuz traffic runs 85% below normal
Aug 29UpdateU.S. goes nearly a month without large Iran strikes as Trump shifts back to sanctions; Hormuz remains closed
Aug 31U.S. destroys two Iranian rocket launchers loaded to mine the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at bases in Jordan, all intercepted
Sep 1UpdateU.S. bombs two Iranian rocket sites near the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at Jordan
Sep 2UpdateU.S. forces struck IRGC air-defense, radar, maritime and mine-laying sites on Iran's southern coast starting at noon on Sept. 1
Sep 3UpdateU.S. hits about 100 Iranian targets; Iran fires back at American bases in four countries, and a cruise missile kills 4 at a wedding
Sep 4Reuters weapons experts say a US munition made a direct hit on the Iranian wedding house that killed 5 — this issue
Judge Boardman blocks Trump's Aug. 6 birthright citizenship order as "almost certainly unconstitutional"
THE GUARDIANUpdateBirthright citizenship
A judge blocked Trump's order denying citizenship to U.S.-born children in "alien enemies" and "birth tourism" cases. US District Judge Deborah Boardman's 35-page preliminary injunction cites June's Supreme Court ruling in Barbara v. Trump, which held that children in the certified class are "citizens at birth." The White House called her an "activist" Biden appointee.
Catch upwhat happened before · 1 earlier issue
Feb. 19, 2025 — Trump's first try at narrowing birthright citizenship drew a nationwide class action. It covered the U.S.-born children the order would exclude. In June, the Supreme Court held in Barbara v. Trump that those children are citizens at birth. Aug. 6 — The White House issued a second, narrower order. It stripped citizenship from U.S.-born children in "alien enemies" and "birth tourism" cases, sending the fight back to Judge Boardman's court.

Order signed Aug. 6, 2026; ruling issued Sept. 3, 2026.

Ruling runs 35 pages and rests on the Supreme Court's June decision in Barbara v. Trump.

Sep 3Federal judge blocks Trump's Aug. 6 order narrowing birthright citizenship, calling it "almost certainly unconstitutional"
Ongoing1
This story has run 2 times, starting Sep 3.
Sep 3Federal judge blocks Trump's Aug. 6 order narrowing birthright citizenship, calling it "almost certainly unconstitutional"
Sep 4UpdateJudge Boardman blocks Trump's Aug. 6 birthright citizenship order as "almost certainly unconstitutional" — this issue
IMF weighs a permanent Caracas office and Energy Secretary Chris Wright flew to Venezuela to sell the oil deal
REASONUpdateVenezuela oil deal
The IMF is weighing a permanent Caracas office, and Energy Secretary Chris Wright flew to Venezuela to promote the 17-field oil concession, which holds about a fifth of the country's reserves. Trump says elections there are not close, and businessman Alejandro Betancourt's ties to the deal draw criticism.
On Sep. 2 the Pentagon's Office of Strategic Capital took a 35% passive stake in North American Blue Energy Partners, the company holding 100-year rights to 17 Venezuelan oil fields.

US passive equity stake in North American Blue Energy Partners: 35%

Concession covers 17 fields, about one-fifth of Venezuela's total oil reserves
Leon Black skipped his Epstein deposition and sued House Oversight to void the subpoenas
NBC NEWS Epstein files
Black's name shows up more than 300 times in the Epstein files released by the DOJ. He says the committee cannot make him testify. He also says it cannot demand his nondisclosure agreements. Chairman James Comer (Rep-R Kentucky) talked to lawyers. He is now weighing a contempt referral.

Black says he paid Epstein for wealth management advisory work.

Comer said no other billionaire or political figure called in for an interview or deposition has sued the committee.

Committee says survivors told it directly that Black was involved in the abuse of women.
Excavation for Trump's 250-foot arch near Arlington starts within two weeks, with a lawsuit pending
NBC NEWS Trump's arch
The 'Great Triumphal Arch' would rise at Memorial Circle, between the Lincoln Memorial and Arlington National Cemetery. Building it would take two to three years. The money comes from funds earmarked for the National Endowment for the Humanities, and the suit says Congress never approved it.

Height: 250 feet

Construction timeline: two to three years, per CBS News

Funding: earmarked from the NEH, per Politico
Treasury proposes stripping tax exemption from 18,000 schools that use race in admissions or aid
REUTERS
Treasury and the IRS proposed a rule Thursday, Sept. 3. It could strip tax breaks from about 18,000 private schools and colleges. The rule targets race-based preferences in admissions, scholarships or other policies. It is not final. The count covers schools the rule could reach, not schools found to discriminate. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said such practices are discriminatory. Calling them "equitable, inclusive, or diversity-enhancing" does not change that, he said.

About 18,000 institutions covered, by Treasury's estimate

Would take effect after May 2027 only if the rule is finalized
US deported 101 people to Haiti Thursday, Sept. 3, its third weekly flight after years of monthly ones
AP Third-country removals
The flights land at Cap-Haitien because Port-au-Prince's airport is too dangerous, with gangs holding about 70% of the capital.

101 people removed on Thursday's flight, Sept. 3 — the third consecutive Thursday flight

Gangs control roughly 70% of Port-au-Prince

More than 3,050 people killed in Haiti from January to June, per the UN
German police arrest 2 over attack on a Munich weapons maker, days after blaming Russia for a Leipzig drone plot
PBS NEWSHOUR Russian sabotage
German police have arrested two people over an attack on a weapons maker in Munich. German officials say the country faces repeated Russian "hybrid warfare" — not war, but a steady run of sabotage.
The rest of itGerman officials have blamed Russia for a drone plot near Leipzig Airport2 details

German officials have blamed Russia for a drone plot near Leipzig Airport

Russia has closed German cultural centers
Zelensky says Witkoff and Kushner will visit Kyiv in coming days, their first trip to Ukraine
KYIV INDEPENDENT Russia-Ukraine war
Zelensky said the two US envoys are also expected to return to Moscow to restart stalled peace talks. Ukraine is ready to meet them "at the appropriate level and for substantive discussions," he said.

Election Bites5 bites

Vance says the six-month Iran conflict is not a war, two days after about 100 U.S. strikes
TIME Iran war
TIME: Vance says the six-month Iran conflict is not a war, two days after about 100 U.S. strikes

At the first White House press briefing in more than 40 days, Vice President JD Vance said on Thursday, Sept. 3: "I wouldn't call it a war. Right now, there is no active shooting." He said major combat ended with the roughly six-week campaign the administration named Epic Fury, and gave no end date. Central Command reported about 100 strikes on Iranian coastal targets on Tuesday, Sept. 1.

Calling it a war would start the 1973 War Powers Act clock, forcing a withdrawal or a congressional vote.

55% of Americans already oppose the conflict.

Thomas Massie (Rep-R Kentucky) called the label fight "an insult to the men and women fighting the war"; Democrats made the same objection.

Calling it a war would start the 1973 War Powers Act clock that forces a withdrawal or a congressional vote.
DOJ asks the Supreme Court to unblock the USPS mail-ballot rule, one day before ballots go out
CBS NEWSUpdateMail-ballot rules
CBS NEWS: DOJ asks the Supreme Court to unblock the USPS mail-ballot rule, one day before ballots go out

The administration told the Supreme Court that Judge Indira Talwani's block on the Aug. 21 rule — which includes a federal portal for voter data — risks "sowing confusion," while election officials say the requirements cannot be implemented before the first state starts mailing ballots on Sept. 4.

[PREVIOUSLY]

On Sept. 1, a federal judge left the new Postal Service mail-ballot requirements blocked, finding the agency likely had no authority to issue the rule at all, and set a Sept. 3 hearing on a longer freeze.

USPS published the rule on Aug. 21, 2026.

The first state begins mailing ballots to voters Friday, Sept. 4, 2026.

Jackson set a Tuesday deadline for states to respond.

Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson gave states until Tuesday to respond.
Missouri Supreme Court votes 7-0 to block the GOP House map for November
AP Redistricting fights
AP: Missouri Supreme Court votes 7-0 to block the GOP House map for November

Missouri will vote in November on its 2022 map — 6 Republican and 2 Democratic seats — after the court ruled a referendum backed by more than 300,000 signatures must go to voters. That likely saves Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver's Kansas City district. The state attorney general said he will appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court.
The 2022 map governs the midterms while a citizen referendum goes on the ballot.
Maryland's top court puts a Democratic redistricting amendment on the November ballot
NBC NEWS Redistricting fights
NBC NEWS: Maryland's top court puts a Democratic redistricting amendment on the November ballot

The court reversed two lower-court rulings and put the amendment on the ballot with a rewritten summary. If voters pass it, Democrats could redraw districts in 2028. The target would be the state's one GOP-held US House seat. Democrats already hold 7 of 8.
The measure eases the state's congressional map rules; it does not touch this year's map.
Missouri GOP candidate Thomas Ross charged with plotting to plant cocaine on the rival he beat by 33 votes
CBS NEWS
CBS NEWS: Missouri GOP candidate Thomas Ross charged with plotting to plant cocaine on the rival he beat by 33 votes

Ross, 37, is charged with federal conspiracy to distribute drugs. His former campaign manager told the FBI that Ross asked him to plant cocaine and Adderall on primary opponent Louise Secker. State GOP chairman Peter Kinder wants Ross off the November ballot before the Sept. 8 withdrawal deadline.

Ross beat Secker by 33 votes in the August primary.

Ross's reported instruction to the campaign manager: "If you can pull it off ... pull it off."

Kinder: "The circumstances of his arrest are serious and deeply troubling."

Elections22 races

The midterms · 60 days out · November 3, 2026

D or R take the House / Senate?

Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT

U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 90%, Kalshi 85%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 52%, Kalshi 48%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

U.S. House — Democrats take it, 84.5–89.5%

90%85%chance Democrats take it · 5.0pp apart · both venues up this week

U.S. House: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 90% and Kalshi 85%.

U.S. Senate — Republicans retain it, 48.5–52.5%

52%48%chance Democrats take it · 4.0pp apart · no clear move — the venues went opposite ways

U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 52% and Kalshi 48%.

No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only

Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.

two venues, priced separately
shaded = how far apart they are
50% — control flips here
where it stood 7 days ago
the last 7 days, on its own scale
week panel: one line a party

The week panel draws one line per party, crossing where control does. Only the Democratic line is a traded price: the Republicanline is its arithmetic complement, the same mirror the bar’s other half is, and not a second market agreeing with the first. The shading around each line is how far apart the two venues are.

Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.

The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 5.0pp gap / 4.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.

Who is defending the House and the Senate is sourced, not remembered — House, 2026-07-23 issue: the NDAA passed “216-212, with six Democrats joining a unified Republican majority.”; Senate, 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.”

Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

PolymarketU.S. House · todayWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Democratic control90%

Republican, implied10%

volume$5.7M

7-day move+1.0pp

KalshiU.S. House · todayWill Democrats win the House in 2026?

Democratic control85%

Republican, implied15%

volume9.9M contracts

bid / ask84% / 85%

7-day move+0.5pp

PolymarketU.S. Senate · todayWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Democratic control52%

Republican, implied48%

volume$2.4M

7-day move+1.0pp

KalshiU.S. Senate · todayWill Democrats win the U.S. Senate in 2026?

Democratic control48%

Republican, implied52%

volume3.4M contracts

bid / ask47% / 48%

7-day move-0.5pp

Probability that Democrats control each chamber, as each venue prices it, by day.
Day	U.S. House · Polymarket	U.S. House · Kalshi	U.S. Senate · Polymarket	U.S. Senate · Kalshi
7 days ago	89%	84%	51%	48%
6 days ago	90%	84%	51%	48%
5 days ago	89%	84%	51%	48%
4 days ago	89%	85%	51%	48%
3 days ago	89%	85%	52%	49%
2 days ago	90%	85%	52%	48%
yesterday	90%	85%	52%	48%
today	90%	85%	52%	48%

3 closest races

sTexas SenatePaxton vs. TalaricoTalarico50.5%Paxton51.5%books split

POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election

Ken Paxton (R) faces James Talarico (D).

The only race here where the two venues do not agree on who is ahead.

The books name different leaders

Texas Senate

Each line is one book’s lead — the gap between the two candidates, signed. Zero is a tie, and the two venues are on opposite sides of it.

Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp

Texas Senate. Lead in percentage points, positive to Ken Paxton. Kalshi: Paxton ahead by 3 points. Polymarket: Talarico ahead by 1 point. Every day is in the table below.

today

Paxton+3%Kalshi
Talarico+1%Polymarket

Paxton49.5%Polymarket
Paxton51.5%Kalshi
Talarico50.5%Polymarket
Talarico48.5%Kalshi

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. The lead is the gap between the two, in points. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

The lead is one candidate’s price minus the other’s, at the same venue on the same day — never one book’s Tuesday against the other’s Thursday. It is drawn only where a venue priced both candidates, so a line starts late rather than being stretched across days it was never quoted over.

A day inside a tenth of a point is printed as levelrather than being rounded onto somebody’s side: on a chart whose whole subject is who is in front, a dead heat shown as a win is the one error that cannot be recovered from the drawing.

The markets: Ken Paxton Polymarket, Kalshi · James Talarico Polymarket, Kalshi

Every price behind the chart, and the lead it produces. Texas Senate, snapshot Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT.
Day	Paxton · Polymarket	Talarico · Polymarket	Lead · Polymarket	Paxton · Kalshi	Talarico · Kalshi	Lead · Kalshi
7 days ago	49.5%	49.5%	level	51.0%	49.0%	Paxton +2%
6 days ago	50.5%	49.5%	Paxton +1%	51.0%	50.0%	Paxton +1%
5 days ago	48.5%	50.0%	Talarico +1.5%	50.0%	50.0%	level
4 days ago	48.5%	50.5%	Talarico +2%	51.0%	51.0%	level
3 days ago	48.5%	50.5%	Talarico +2%	51.0%	50.0%	Paxton +1%
2 days ago	49.5%	50.5%	Talarico +1%	51.0%	50.0%	Paxton +1%
yesterday	49.5%	50.5%	Talarico +1%	53.0%	48.0%	Paxton +5%
today	49.5%	50.5%	Talarico +1%	51.5%	48.5%	Paxton +3%

vOhio SenateSherrod Brown 54.5%▲0.4Jon Husted 45.8%

POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election

Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).

A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Ohio Senate

Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.5pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 55.5%, Kalshi 53.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 44.5%, Kalshi 47.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Sherrod Brown 54% · Jon Husted 47%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Sherrod Brown (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$119K54.5%

Kalshi1.1M contracts · 53%/54%54.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move+1.0pp

Jon Husted (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$87.4K45.5%

Kalshi1.5M contracts · 46%/48%47.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move-1.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Ohio Senate, snapshot Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT.
Day	Sherrod Brown · Polymarket	Sherrod Brown · Kalshi	Jon Husted · Polymarket	Jon Husted · Kalshi
7 days ago	54.5%	54.0%	45.5%	47%
6 days ago	54.5%	55.0%	45.5%	47%
5 days ago	54.5%	56.0%	45.5%	46%
4 days ago	54.5%	55.0%	45.5%	46%
3 days ago	54.5%	55.0%	45.5%	46%
2 days ago	55.5%	54.0%	44.5%	47%
yesterday	55.5%	54.0%	44.5%	48%
today	55.5%	53.5%	44.5%	47%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

qOhio governorAmy Acton 56.5%▲1.4Vivek Ramaswamy 44.0%

POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election

Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).

Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Ohio governor

Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 55.5%, Kalshi 57.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 44.5%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Amy Acton 57% · Vivek Ramaswamy 44%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Amy Acton (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$81.9K53.5%

Kalshi700K contracts · 57%/58%56.0%

venue gap2.5pp

7-day move+2.0pp

Vivek Ramaswamy (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$98.4K45.5%

Kalshi770K contracts · 43%/44%45.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move-1.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Ohio governor, snapshot Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT.
Day	Amy Acton · Polymarket	Amy Acton · Kalshi	Vivek Ramaswamy · Polymarket	Vivek Ramaswamy · Kalshi
7 days ago	53.5%	56.0%	45.5%	45.0%
6 days ago	53.5%	56.0%	46.5%	44.0%
5 days ago	53.5%	57.0%	46.5%	44.0%
4 days ago	53.5%	57.0%	46.5%	44.0%
3 days ago	53.5%	57.0%	45.5%	43.0%
2 days ago	54.5%	58.0%	45.5%	42.0%
yesterday	55.5%	57.0%	44.5%	44.0%
today	55.5%	57.5%	44.5%	43.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

The other 19 races22 races · 12 still in doubt · Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT · markets, not polling

Senate8 of 10

tAlaska SenateMary Peltola 65.0%▲1.2Dan Sullivan 35.3%

POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election

Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).

A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.

Two markets, one question

Alaska Senate

Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 63.5%, Kalshi 66.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 36.5%, Kalshi 34.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Mary Peltola 64% · Dan Sullivan 36%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Mary Peltola (D)7 days ago

Polymarket$244K65%

Kalshi77.6K contracts · 66%/67%65%

venue gap0.0pp

7-day move-1.5pp

Dan Sullivan (R)7 days ago

Polymarket$137K35.5%

Kalshi73.0K contracts · 33%/35%39.0%

venue gap3.5pp

7-day move+1.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Alaska Senate, snapshot Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT.
Day	Mary Peltola · Polymarket	Mary Peltola · Kalshi	Dan Sullivan · Polymarket	Dan Sullivan · Kalshi
7 days ago	65.0%	65.0%	35.5%	39%
6 days ago	64.5%	64.0%	34.5%	39%
5 days ago	65.0%	63.0%	34.5%	36%
4 days ago	63.5%	62.0%	36.5%	36%
3 days ago	63.5%	65.0%	36.5%	34%
2 days ago	63.5%	67.0%	36.5%	33%
yesterday	63.5%	65.0%	36.5%	32%
today	63.5%	66.5%	36.5%	34%

aaGeorgia SenateJon Ossoff 93.47%▲0.7Collins 6.50%

POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election

Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Georgia Senate

Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.2pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 93.50%, Kalshi 93.45%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 6.4%, Kalshi 6.6%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.2pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Jon Ossoff 93% · Mike Collins 6.6%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Jon Ossoff (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$49.2K93.5%

Kalshi355K contracts · 93%/94%92.1%

venue gap1.4pp

7-day move0.0pp

Mike Collins (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$74.5K6.35%

Kalshi840K contracts · 6.5%/6.7%8.00%

venue gap1.7pp

7-day move+0.1pp

Every sample behind the chart. Georgia Senate, snapshot Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT.
Day	Jon Ossoff · Polymarket	Jon Ossoff · Kalshi	Mike Collins · Polymarket	Mike Collins · Kalshi
7 days ago	93.5%	92.10%	6.35%	8.0%
6 days ago	93.5%	92.70%	6.35%	7.9%
5 days ago	93.5%	92.60%	6.40%	8.1%
4 days ago	93.5%	92.80%	6.40%	7.7%
3 days ago	93.5%	93.00%	6.45%	7.5%
2 days ago	93.5%	93.40%	6.40%	7.4%
yesterday	93.5%	93.60%	6.40%	7.4%
today	93.5%	93.45%	6.40%	6.6%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

uIowa SenateAshley Hinson 63.5%▲4.0Josh Turek 37.0%

POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election

Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).

An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead.

Two markets, one question

Iowa Senate

Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 64%, Kalshi 63%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 36.5%, Kalshi 37.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Ashley Hinson 63% · Josh Turek 37%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Ashley Hinson (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$119K60.5%

Kalshi1.0M contracts · 62%/64%59.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move+3.5pp

Josh Turek (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$109K40.5%

Kalshi1.1M contracts · 37%/38%42.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move-4.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Iowa Senate, snapshot Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT.
Day	Ashley Hinson · Polymarket	Ashley Hinson · Kalshi	Josh Turek · Polymarket	Josh Turek · Kalshi
7 days ago	60.5%	59%	40.5%	42.0%
6 days ago	61.0%	59%	39.5%	42.0%
5 days ago	60.5%	59%	39.5%	42.0%
4 days ago	64.0%	59%	37.0%	41.0%
3 days ago	64.0%	62%	37.0%	39.0%
2 days ago	64.0%	62%	36.5%	40.0%
yesterday	64.0%	63%	36.5%	38.0%
today	64.0%	63%	36.5%	37.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

rMaine SenateTroy Jackson 69.0%▲1.8Susan Collins 31.0%

POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election

Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).

Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

Two markets, one question

Maine Senate

Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 69.5%, Kalshi 68.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 31.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Troy Jackson 69% · Susan Collins 31%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Troy Jackson (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$737K69.5%

Kalshi2.0M contracts · 68%/69%67.0%

venue gap2.5pp

7-day move0.0pp

Susan Collins (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$498K31.5%

Kalshi2.7M contracts · 31%/32%35.0%

venue gap3.5pp

7-day move-1.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Maine Senate, snapshot Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT.
Day	Troy Jackson · Polymarket	Troy Jackson · Kalshi	Susan Collins · Polymarket	Susan Collins · Kalshi
7 days ago	69.5%	67.0%	31.5%	35.0%
6 days ago	69.5%	69.0%	30.5%	32.0%
5 days ago	69.5%	70.0%	30.5%	31.0%
4 days ago	69.5%	70.0%	30.5%	31.0%
3 days ago	69.5%	70.0%	30.5%	31.0%
2 days ago	69.5%	70.0%	30.5%	30.0%
yesterday	69.5%	68.0%	30.5%	32.0%
today	69.5%	68.5%	30.5%	31.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

pMichigan SenateEl-Sayed refuses to disavow Hasan Piker, offers his 3 million followers a "pathway" into his Senate campaignAbdul El-Sayed 64.0%▲1.4Mike Rogers 36.3%

WASHINGTON EXAMINER: El-Sayed won't disavow Hasan Piker, and invites the streamer's followers into his Senate campaign

Abdul El-Sayed (D-MI) said he wants to offer Piker's audience "a pathway into an electoral movement." It would be a path that "disavows the things that I disagree with," he said. He spoke weeks after about 400 Jewish Michigan Democrats signed a letter backing his Republican opponent, Mike Rogers (R-MI). Major donors were among them.

400 Jewish Michigan Democrats signed the letter backing Rogers.
Piker on the fight: "I have become this media cycle's 'trans athletes' or 'migrant caravan.'"

Michigan's Democratic Senate nominee resisted pressure from Senate Democrats to cut ties with the streamer.

Two markets, one question

Michigan Senate

Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 64.5%, Kalshi 63.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 35.5%, Kalshi 37.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 64% · Mike Rogers 37%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Abdul El-Sayed (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$353K64.5%

Kalshi1.2M contracts · 63%/64%61.0%

venue gap3.5pp

7-day move0.0pp

Mike Rogers (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$295K35.5%

Kalshi1.8M contracts · 36%/38%40.0%

venue gap4.5pp

7-day move0.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Michigan Senate, snapshot Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT.
Day	Abdul El-Sayed · Polymarket	Abdul El-Sayed · Kalshi	Mike Rogers · Polymarket	Mike Rogers · Kalshi
7 days ago	64.5%	61.0%	35.5%	40%
6 days ago	64.5%	63.0%	35.5%	39%
5 days ago	64.5%	63.0%	35.5%	37%
4 days ago	64.5%	64.0%	35.5%	37%
3 days ago	64.5%	64.0%	35.5%	37%
2 days ago	64.5%	63.0%	35.5%	37%
yesterday	64.5%	64.0%	35.5%	37%
today	64.5%	63.5%	35.5%	37%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

abNebraska SenatePete Ricketts 69.3%▲0.6Dan Osborn 30.8%

POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election

Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).

The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Nebraska Senate

Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 69.0%, Kalshi 69.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 31.0%, Kalshi 30.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Pete Ricketts 69% · Dan Osborn 31%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Pete Ricketts (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$102K70.5%

Kalshi289K contracts · 69%/70%70.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move-1.5pp

Dan Osborn (I)7 days ago

Polymarket$29.2K29.5%

Kalshi384K contracts · 30%/31%31.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move+1.5pp

Every sample behind the chart. Nebraska Senate, snapshot Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT.
Day	Pete Ricketts · Polymarket	Pete Ricketts · Kalshi	Dan Osborn · Polymarket	Dan Osborn · Kalshi
7 days ago	70.5%	70.0%	29.5%	31.0%
6 days ago	70.5%	70.0%	29.5%	29.0%
5 days ago	70.0%	70.0%	29.5%	30.0%
4 days ago	70.5%	70.0%	29.5%	31.0%
3 days ago	68.5%	69.0%	29.5%	30.0%
2 days ago	69.0%	70.0%	31.0%	31.0%
yesterday	69.0%	70.0%	31.0%	31.0%
today	69.0%	69.5%	31.0%	30.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

acNew Hampshire SenateChris Pappas 82.5%17.5%Sununu

POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election

Chris Pappas (D) leads the unresolved Democratic primary; John E. Sununu (R) leads the unresolved Republican primary.

Neither nomination is official yet, though the market already treats both as decided — the Democratic side lost about three points in a week.

General election wintwo venues

Chris Pappas^* (D)party contract82.5%82.5%same price

The whole field

New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary

Every candidate the venue lists, replayed across the window it has priced. Bars are linear, so a 0.05% long shot is a hairline — that is what the market thinks of them.

Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
6 candidates listed

New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary on today, priced by Kalshi: Chris Pappas 96%, Karishma Manzur 4.2%, Jared Sullivan 0.3%, Annie Kuster 0.2%, Maggie Goodlander 0.1%, Stefany Shaheen 0.1%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

Chris Pappas96%

Karishma Manzur4.2%

Jared Sullivan0.3%

Annie Kuster0.2%

Maggie Goodlander0.1%

Stefany Shaheen0.1%

Daytoday

Biggest moves over the window (Kalshi): Karishma Manzur -2.9pp · Chris Pappas +1.4pp · leading on today: Chris Pappas at 96%.

A candidate with no sample on the selected day is shown as not priced and dropped to the bottom rather than carried forward from an earlier day. Venues list candidates on different dates, so the field genuinely grows and shrinks across the window.

New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary — Kalshiprice by day, plus the other venue’s price today.
Candidate	7 days ago	6 days ago	5 days ago	4 days ago	3 days ago	2 days ago	yesterday	today	Other venue, today	Volume
Chris Pappas	94%	94%	93%	97%	95%	95%	96%	96%	—	217K contracts
Karishma Manzur	7.0%	6.5%	7.0%	7.3%	5.5%	4.1%	4.5%	4.2%	—	180K contracts
Jared Sullivan	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.3%	—	1.1K contracts
Annie Kuster	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.2%	—	622 contracts
Maggie Goodlander	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.5%	0.1%	—	1.4K contracts
Stefany Shaheen	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.5%	0.1%	—	1.3K contracts

No 7-day series from Kalshi for Jared Sullivan, Annie Kuster— they only appear at “today”.

New Hampshire Democratic Senate primaryNomination odds · Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT

Chris Pappas (D)96%+1.4pp

Karishma Manzur (D)4.2%-2.9pp

Jared Sullivan (D)0.3%7D —

Annie Kuster (D)0.2%7D —

Maggie Goodlander (D)0.1%-0.4pp

Stefany Shaheen (D)0.1%-0.4pp

John E. Sununu^* (R)party contract17.5%17.5%same price

The whole field

New Hampshire Republican Senate primary

Every candidate the venue lists, replayed across the window it has priced. Bars are linear, so a 0.05% long shot is a hairline — that is what the market thinks of them.

Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
4 candidates listed

New Hampshire Republican Senate primary on today, priced by Kalshi: John E. Sununu 99.4%, Scott Brown 0.4%, Chris Sununu 0.1%, Dan Innis 0.05%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

John E. Sununu99.4%

Scott Brown0.4%

Chris Sununu0.1%

Dan Innis0.05%

Daytoday

Biggest moves over the window (Kalshi): Scott Brown -1.9pp · John E. Sununu +0.9pp · leading on today: John E. Sununu at 99.4%.

New Hampshire Republican Senate primary — Kalshiprice by day, plus the other venue’s price today.
Candidate	7 days ago	6 days ago	5 days ago	4 days ago	3 days ago	2 days ago	yesterday	today	Other venue, today	Volume
John E. Sununu	99%	99.6%	99.7%	98%	97%	98%	98%	99.4%	—	18.5K contracts
Scott Brown	2.3%	1.8%	2.1%	2.5%	2.8%	2.5%	1.8%	0.4%	—	35.0K contracts
Chris Sununu	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.7%	0.1%	—	22.7K contracts
Dan Innis	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.05%	—	37 contracts

No 7-day series from Kalshi for Dan Innis— they only appear at “today”.

New Hampshire Republican Senate primaryNomination odds · Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT

John E. Sununu (R)99.4%+0.9pp

Scott Brown (R)0.4%-1.9pp

Chris Sununu (R)0.1%-0.6pp

Dan Innis (R)0.05%7D —

* Current primary leader; nomination not settled. General-election odds above may price the party rather than the person.

Two markets, one question

New Hampshire Senate

Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 82.5%, Kalshi 82.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 17.5%, Kalshi 17.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Chris Pappas 83% · John E. Sununu 17%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Chris Pappas (D)*7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$64.9K85.5%

Kalshi97.4K contracts · 82%/83%85.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move-3.0pp

John E. Sununu (R)*7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$28.4K14.5%

Kalshi189K contracts · 17%/18%17.0%

venue gap2.5pp

7-day move+3.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. New Hampshire Senate, snapshot Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT.
Day	Chris Pappas · Polymarket	Chris Pappas · Kalshi	John E. Sununu · Polymarket	John E. Sununu · Kalshi
7 days ago	85.5%	85.0%	14.5%	17.0%
6 days ago	84.5%	84.0%	14.5%	17.0%
5 days ago	84.5%	84.0%	16.0%	18.0%
4 days ago	83.5%	84.0%	16.5%	17.0%
3 days ago	83.5%	83.0%	16.5%	17.0%
2 days ago	82.5%	84.0%	17.5%	18.0%
yesterday	82.5%	84.0%	17.5%	16.0%
today	82.5%	82.5%	17.5%	17.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

zNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 91.3%8.7%Whatley

POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election

Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

North Carolina Senate

Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.4pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 91.5%, Kalshi 91.1%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 8.5%, Kalshi 8.8%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.4pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Roy Cooper 91% · Michael Whatley 8.8%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Roy Cooper (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$43.1K91.5%

Kalshi1.3M contracts · 91%/91%91.5%

venue gap0.0pp

7-day move0.0pp

Michael Whatley (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$59.8K9.0%

Kalshi626K contracts · 8.6%/9.0%7.8%

venue gap1.2pp

7-day move-0.5pp

Every sample behind the chart. North Carolina Senate, snapshot Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT.
Day	Roy Cooper · Polymarket	Roy Cooper · Kalshi	Michael Whatley · Polymarket	Michael Whatley · Kalshi
7 days ago	91.5%	91.5%	9.0%	7.8%
6 days ago	91.5%	92.3%	9.0%	8.8%
5 days ago	92.0%	91.1%	8.0%	9.8%
4 days ago	91.5%	92.5%	8.0%	9.1%
3 days ago	91.5%	91.2%	8.5%	9.2%
2 days ago	91.5%	91.2%	8.5%	9.1%
yesterday	91.5%	91.1%	8.5%	9.2%
today	91.5%	91.1%	8.5%	8.8%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Governors11 of 12

aeAlaska governorBernadette Wilson 33.00%66.2%Begich 0.75%

POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election

Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).

Wilson holds a commanding lead, but no race here has moved more this week: Begich is down about seven points.

Two markets, one question

Alaska governor

Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 33.5%, Kalshi 32.5%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 1.25%, Kalshi 0.25%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Bernadette Wilson 33% · Tom Begich 0.7%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Bernadette Wilson (R)7 days ago

Polymarket$171K35.5%

Kalshi51.3K contracts · 32%/33%35.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move-2.0pp

Tom Begich (D)7 days ago

Polymarket$158K1.35%

Kalshi229K contracts · 0.2%/0.3%14.00%

venue gap13pp

7-day move-0.1pp

Every sample behind the chart. Alaska governor, snapshot Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT.
Day	Bernadette Wilson · Polymarket	Bernadette Wilson · Kalshi	Tom Begich · Polymarket	Tom Begich · Kalshi
7 days ago	35.5%	35.0%	1.35%	14.00%
6 days ago	35.5%	36.0%	1.40%	1.00%
5 days ago	35.5%	37.0%	1.30%	0.10%
4 days ago	35.5%	36.0%	1.25%	1.00%
3 days ago	35.5%	30.0%	1.25%	0.10%
2 days ago	33.5%	33.0%	1.25%	0.30%
yesterday	33.5%	31.0%	1.25%	0.30%
today	33.5%	32.5%	1.25%	0.25%

agArizona governorKatie Hobbs 87.0%13.0%Biggs

POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election

Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Arizona governor

Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 87.5%, Kalshi 86.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 12.5%, Kalshi 13.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Katie Hobbs 87% · Andy Biggs 13%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Katie Hobbs (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$31.2K87.5%

Kalshi306K contracts · 86%/87%88.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move0.0pp

Andy Biggs (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$36.2K12.5%

Kalshi237K contracts · 13%/14%14.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move0.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Arizona governor, snapshot Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT.
Day	Katie Hobbs · Polymarket	Katie Hobbs · Kalshi	Andy Biggs · Polymarket	Andy Biggs · Kalshi
7 days ago	87.5%	88.0%	12.5%	14.0%
6 days ago	87.5%	89.0%	12.5%	14.0%
5 days ago	87.5%	88.0%	12.5%	14.0%
4 days ago	87.5%	88.0%	12.5%	15.0%
3 days ago	87.5%	88.0%	12.5%	15.0%
2 days ago	87.5%	88.0%	12.5%	14.0%
yesterday	87.5%	87.0%	12.5%	15.0%
today	87.5%	86.5%	12.5%	13.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

akFlorida governorByron Donalds 81.0%▲0.519.3%Jolly

POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election

Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).

Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Florida governor

Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 81.5%, Kalshi 80.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 19.0%, Kalshi 19.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Byron Donalds 81% · David Jolly 19%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Byron Donalds (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$27.0K80.5%

Kalshi485K contracts · 80%/81%83.0%

venue gap2.5pp

7-day move+1.0pp

David Jolly (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$31.1K18.5%

Kalshi290K contracts · 19%/20%19.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move+0.5pp

Every sample behind the chart. Florida governor, snapshot Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT.
Day	Byron Donalds · Polymarket	Byron Donalds · Kalshi	David Jolly · Polymarket	David Jolly · Kalshi
7 days ago	80.5%	83.0%	18.5%	19.0%
6 days ago	81.0%	83.0%	19.5%	18.0%
5 days ago	81.0%	84.0%	19.5%	17.0%
4 days ago	81.5%	81.0%	19.5%	19.0%
3 days ago	81.5%	81.0%	19.0%	20.0%
2 days ago	81.5%	81.0%	19.0%	17.0%
yesterday	81.5%	81.0%	19.0%	19.0%
today	81.5%	80.5%	19.0%	19.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

xGeorgia governorKeisha Lance Bottoms 58.0%▲1.0Rick Jackson 41.5%

POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election

Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).

Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Georgia governor

Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 58.5%, Kalshi 57.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 40.5%, Kalshi 42.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Keisha Lance Bottoms 58% · Rick Jackson 42%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$33.0K59%

Kalshi290K contracts · 57%/58%59%

venue gap0.0pp

7-day move-0.5pp

Rick Jackson (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$37.7K39.5%

Kalshi377K contracts · 42%/43%41.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move+1.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Georgia governor, snapshot Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT.
Day	Keisha Lance Bottoms · Polymarket	Keisha Lance Bottoms · Kalshi	Rick Jackson · Polymarket	Rick Jackson · Kalshi
7 days ago	59.0%	59.0%	39.5%	41.0%
6 days ago	59.0%	60.0%	39.0%	42.0%
5 days ago	59.0%	59.0%	39.0%	41.0%
4 days ago	60.5%	60.0%	38.0%	41.0%
3 days ago	59.0%	60.0%	40.0%	41.0%
2 days ago	58.5%	59.0%	40.5%	41.0%
yesterday	58.5%	59.0%	40.5%	43.0%
today	58.5%	57.5%	40.5%	42.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

adIowa governorRob Sand 77.0%▲2.2Zach Lahn 24.0%

POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election

Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

Two markets, one question

Iowa governor

Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 76.5%, Kalshi 77.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 24.5%, Kalshi 23.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Rob Sand 77% · Zach Lahn 24%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Rob Sand (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$31.2K74.5%

Kalshi317K contracts · 77%/78%75.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move+2.0pp

Zach Lahn (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$43.8K25.5%

Kalshi297K contracts · 23%/24%27.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move-1.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Iowa governor, snapshot Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT.
Day	Rob Sand · Polymarket	Rob Sand · Kalshi	Zach Lahn · Polymarket	Zach Lahn · Kalshi
7 days ago	74.5%	75.0%	25.5%	27.0%
6 days ago	74.5%	75.0%	25.5%	27.0%
5 days ago	75.5%	74.0%	24.5%	26.0%
4 days ago	75.5%	77.0%	24.5%	26.0%
3 days ago	76.5%	75.0%	24.5%	27.0%
2 days ago	76.5%	76.0%	24.5%	27.0%
yesterday	76.5%	76.0%	24.5%	25.0%
today	76.5%	77.5%	24.5%	23.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

afMichigan governorJocelyn Benson 89.0%11.3%James

POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election

Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Michigan governor

Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 90%, Kalshi 88%; John James (R): Polymarket 10.5%, Kalshi 12.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Jocelyn Benson 89% · John James 11%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Jocelyn Benson (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$48.4K91%

Kalshi73.2K contracts · 87%/89%88%

venue gap3.0pp

7-day move-1.0pp

John James (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$154K8.5%

Kalshi127K contracts · 11%/13%12.0%

venue gap3.5pp

7-day move+2.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Michigan governor, snapshot Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT.
Day	Jocelyn Benson · Polymarket	Jocelyn Benson · Kalshi	John James · Polymarket	John James · Kalshi
7 days ago	91.0%	88.0%	8.5%	12%
6 days ago	90.5%	92.9%	8.0%	15%
5 days ago	92.0%	89.0%	8.0%	10%
4 days ago	92.0%	87.0%	8.0%	15%
3 days ago	91.0%	87.0%	8.5%	14%
2 days ago	90.5%	90.2%	10.0%	12%
yesterday	90.0%	87.0%	10.5%	14%
today	90.0%	88.0%	10.5%	12%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

yNevada governorJoe Lombardo 59.0%▲0.5Aaron Ford 41.0%

POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election

Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).

Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Republican side holds a clear lead.

Two markets, one question

Nevada governor

Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 57.5%, Kalshi 60.5%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 40.5%, Kalshi 41.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.

Money-weighted: Joe Lombardo 60% · Aaron Ford 41%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Joe Lombardo (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$65.8K59.5%

Kalshi238K contracts · 60%/61%61.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move-2.0pp

Aaron Ford (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$23.6K41%

Kalshi482K contracts · 41%/42%—

venue gap—

7-day move-0.5pp

Every sample behind the chart. Nevada governor, snapshot Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT.
Day	Joe Lombardo · Polymarket	Joe Lombardo · Kalshi	Aaron Ford · Polymarket	Aaron Ford · Kalshi
7 days ago	59.5%	61.0%	41.0%	—
6 days ago	59.5%	60.0%	41.0%	41.0%
5 days ago	60.5%	60.0%	40.0%	40.0%
4 days ago	57.0%	60.0%	40.5%	42.0%
3 days ago	57.5%	55.0%	40.5%	42.0%
2 days ago	57.5%	58.0%	40.5%	41.0%
yesterday	57.5%	61.0%	40.5%	40.0%
today	57.5%	60.5%	40.5%	41.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

aiNew York governorKathy Hochul 94.17%Blakeman 5.60%

POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election

Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

New York governor

Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.2pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 94.50%, Kalshi 93.85%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 5.0%, Kalshi 6.2%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.2pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Kathy Hochul 94% · Bruce Blakeman 6.1%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Kathy Hochul (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$49.5K94.5%

Kalshi279K contracts · 94%/94%94.1%

venue gap0.4pp

7-day move0.0pp

Bruce Blakeman (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$55.5K5.0%

Kalshi743K contracts · 6.0%/6.4%6.1%

venue gap1.1pp

7-day move0.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. New York governor, snapshot Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT.
Day	Kathy Hochul · Polymarket	Kathy Hochul · Kalshi	Bruce Blakeman · Polymarket	Bruce Blakeman · Kalshi
7 days ago	94.5%	94.10%	5.0%	6.1%
6 days ago	94.5%	94.30%	5.0%	6.2%
5 days ago	94.5%	94.10%	5.5%	6.2%
4 days ago	94.5%	94.00%	5.5%	6.6%
3 days ago	94.5%	94.10%	5.0%	7.7%
2 days ago	94.5%	94.00%	5.0%	7.5%
yesterday	94.5%	93.80%	5.0%	5.3%
today	94.5%	93.85%	5.0%	6.2%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

ajPennsylvania governorJosh Shapiro 96.95%▲1.1Garrity 2.65%

POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election

Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

Two markets, one question

Pennsylvania governor

Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 96.8%, Kalshi 97.1%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.15%, Kalshi 3.15%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 4–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.

Money-weighted: Josh Shapiro 97% · Stacy Garrity 3.1%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Josh Shapiro (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$7.5K95.5%

Kalshi99.1K contracts · 97%/98%—

venue gap—

7-day move+1.3pp

Stacy Garrity (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$41.6K2.75%

Kalshi391K contracts · 2.6%/3.7%—

venue gap—

7-day move-0.6pp

Every sample behind the chart. Pennsylvania governor, snapshot Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT.
Day	Josh Shapiro · Polymarket	Josh Shapiro · Kalshi	Stacy Garrity · Polymarket	Stacy Garrity · Kalshi
7 days ago	95.50%	—	2.75%	—
6 days ago	95.50%	—	2.50%	—
5 days ago	95.50%	—	2.25%	—
4 days ago	95.50%	—	2.30%	4.90%
3 days ago	95.50%	96.0%	2.30%	4.90%
2 days ago	96.85%	97.7%	2.25%	4.30%
yesterday	96.80%	96.7%	2.20%	4.30%
today	96.80%	97.1%	2.15%	3.15%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

ahTexas governorGreg Abbott 81.3%▲2.719.5%Hinojosa

POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election

Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).

The Republican side holds a commanding lead after the Democratic side gained about three points in a week.

Two markets, one question

Texas governor

Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 81.2%, Kalshi 81.5%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 18.5%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Greg Abbott 81% · Gina Hinojosa 20%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Greg Abbott (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$40.7K82.35%

Kalshi167K contracts · 81%/82%86.00%

venue gap3.6pp

7-day move-1.1pp

Gina Hinojosa (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$51.3K18.5%

Kalshi616K contracts · 20%/21%15.0%

venue gap3.5pp

7-day move0.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Texas governor, snapshot Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT.
Day	Greg Abbott · Polymarket	Greg Abbott · Kalshi	Gina Hinojosa · Polymarket	Gina Hinojosa · Kalshi
7 days ago	82.35%	86.0%	18.5%	15.0%
6 days ago	83.05%	86.0%	16.0%	16.0%
5 days ago	78.75%	86.0%	17.5%	16.0%
4 days ago	81.55%	85.0%	19.0%	16.0%
3 days ago	81.75%	85.0%	18.5%	17.0%
2 days ago	81.20%	84.0%	18.5%	18.0%
yesterday	81.20%	81.0%	18.5%	20.0%
today	81.20%	81.5%	18.5%	20.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

wWisconsin governorDavid Crowley 81.0%▲1.3Tiffany 19.5%

POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election

David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).

An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Wisconsin governor

Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 82.5%, Kalshi 79.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 18.5%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: David Crowley 81% · Tom Tiffany 20%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

David Crowley (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$293K80.5%

Kalshi449K contracts · 79%/80%78.0%

venue gap2.5pp

7-day move+2.0pp

Tom Tiffany (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$263K19.5%

Kalshi467K contracts · 20%/21%20.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move-1.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Wisconsin governor, snapshot Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT.
Day	David Crowley · Polymarket	David Crowley · Kalshi	Tom Tiffany · Polymarket	Tom Tiffany · Kalshi
7 days ago	80.5%	78.0%	19.5%	20.0%
6 days ago	80.5%	80.0%	19.5%	21.0%
5 days ago	81.5%	79.0%	19.5%	21.0%
4 days ago	81.5%	80.0%	19.5%	20.0%
3 days ago	82.5%	80.0%	18.5%	19.0%
2 days ago	82.5%	78.0%	18.5%	21.0%
yesterday	82.5%	80.0%	18.5%	21.0%
today	82.5%	79.5%	18.5%	20.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.

Trump names Adam Telle acting Army secretary, effective immediately, after Driscoll resigned

ICE officer Christian Castro indicted on 6 counts of lying to the FBI about shooting a Venezuelan man through a closed door

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