News news1 story
Trump named no story, citing "cumulative stories over the last two years"; all three outlets say they will sue.
At the gate. A day after Trump announced on Truth Social that he was banning CNN, MS NOW and Politico from the White House over "fake news," Secret Service officers turned their reporters away at a West Wing gate on Saturday, Sept. 19, and took their badges. CBS News watched an MS NOW correspondent and cameraman be refused at about 8 a.m. ET. MS NOW's Akayla Gardner, CNN's Betsy Klein and Politico's Cheyenne Haslett were all denied entry. ([TS]An MS NOW producer got in the same morning — the kill is per-badge, not per-gate, per NBC News.)
"The officer asked me to hand over my badge. He said that it was disabled. I asked why I was not able to get inside. He said it was above him."Akayla Gardner, MS NOW
Still open. What written basis the White House produces for the revocations — all three outlets say they will sue.
On Friday, Sept. 18, Trump posted on Truth Social that CNN, MS NOW and Politico were barred from the White House effective immediately over "constant reporting FAKE NEWS," and said other outlets could follow.
What the written pass rules and past cases required
- White House hard-pass rules adopted in May 2023 require a written warning first, except for Secret Service security concerns
- Courts blocked two earlier single-reporter revocations: CNN's Jim Acosta in 2018 and Playboy's Brian Karem in 2020
Related reading
Read more about: Hegseth says the Pentagon backs the ban and notes the same outlets already gave up their Pentagon passes
CNN and Politico were among 30-plus news organizations that surrendered Pentagon credentials in October 2025 rather than sign Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's 21-page rules for reporters. Hegseth said the Department of War "fully supports" Trump's decision and that the outlets had already chosen to "self-deport" from the Pentagon.
Quick bites11
Houthi missiles hit Riyadh, burning a fuel depot near King Khalid airport
BBC NEWSUpdateIran warHouthi missiles and drones set a fuel depot on fire near Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport early Saturday, Sept. 19. Flights were delayed. It was the Saudi capital's first air-raid alert since July. The Saudi-led coalition said it shot down one ballistic missile over the city. It said it also stopped attacks on Yanbu, Taif, Baysh and Farasan.
Catch up
- Sep. 9 — Houthi missiles and drones hit four Saudi cities, wounded 73 and halted Aramco's 400,000-barrel-a-day Jazan refinery.
- Sep. 10 — Brent passed $100 a barrel and US diesel reached $5.94 a gallon.
- Sep. 11-12 — Houthi forces took Mokha and Perim island in the Bab el-Mandeb strait; Saudi Arabia shut its 7-million-barrel-a-day East-West pipeline after Iraqi drone strikes.
- Sep. 14 — Oil rose more than $3 with four percent of world supply at risk.
- Sep. 16 — Aramco suspended loadings at Yanbu, its last open terminal, and cancelled September cargoes; supertanker hire passed $1 million a day.
- Sep. 17 — Debris from an intercepted Houthi drone killed a Yemeni resident in Saudi Arabia, the first civilian death.
- Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree claims 300 Saudi air strikes across Yemen in one week; the Washington Examiner counts 26 in a 24-hour span.
- 48 killed Saturday, Sept. 19, in Houthi-government fighting — 31 Houthi fighters and 17 government soldiers, per AFP.
- 104,796 people displaced by the recent fighting, per the UN's International Organization for Migration.
7 earlier issues
- Houthi missiles and drones hit 4 Saudi cities, wounding 73 and halting Aramco's 400,000-barrel-a-day Jazan refinery
- Houthis capture Yemen's Mokha from Saudi-backed forces 46 miles from Bab el-Mandeb
- UpdateHouthi forces captured Mokha and Perim island in the 28-kilometer Bab el-Mandeb strait.
- UpdateA day after the Bab el-Mandeb capture, maritime monitors have recorded no new transit halts
- UpdateSaudi Arabia shuts Hormuz-bypass pipeline, oil rises more than $3 with 4% of supply at risk
- UpdateHouthis seize two more Red Sea islands as Saudi pipeline faces 3-to-5-week outage
- UpdateSaudi Arabia suspends loadings at its last open oil terminal; September cargoes cancelled
Ongoing8
This story has run 9 times over 11 days, starting Sep 9.
- Houthi missiles and drones hit 4 Saudi cities, wounding 73 and halting Aramco's 400,000-barrel-a-day Jazan refinery
- Houthis capture Yemen's Mokha from Saudi-backed forces 46 miles from Bab el-Mandeb
- UpdateHouthi forces captured Mokha and Perim island in the 28-kilometer Bab el-Mandeb strait.
- UpdateA day after the Bab el-Mandeb capture, maritime monitors have recorded no new transit halts
- UpdateSaudi Arabia shuts Hormuz-bypass pipeline, oil rises more than $3 with 4% of supply at risk
- UpdateHouthis seize two more Red Sea islands as Saudi pipeline faces 3-to-5-week outage
- UpdateSaudi Arabia suspends loadings at its last open oil terminal; September cargoes cancelled
- Attacks on Saudi export pipeline push WTI crude to $107.02 a barrel, a 30-day high
- UpdateHouthi missiles hit Riyadh, burning a fuel depot near King Khalid airport — this issue
Oil's chokepoint shifts to refineries and tankers as JPMorgan drops its baseline oil forecast
BLOOMBERGUpdateIran warThe oil shock has shifted from crude supply to refining and shipping. JPMorgan says it no longer has a baseline view for oil markets, pointing to the Iran war, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries and Chinese demand. An attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline cut the main route around the blockaded Strait of Hormuz. Supertankers are scarce. Some long-haul crude trades now lose money.
Catch up
- Sep. 1 — U.S. forces bombed two Iranian rocket sites near the Strait of Hormuz, killing two; Iran answered with eight missiles at Jordan and Brent climbed.
- Sep. 3 — The U.S. hit about 100 Iranian targets; Iran counted at least 18 dead, including four at a wedding compound, and fired on American bases in four countries.
- Sep. 5-10 — The U.S. destroyed or disabled eight Iranian oil tankers over two rounds; Iran fired 20 missiles at a base in Jordan, 18 intercepted.
- Sep. 8 — Tehran said it would declare a restricted zone near Hormuz and doubled gasoline prices for its heaviest domestic users.
- Sep. 17 — U.S. gas prices climbed again and diesel hit a record; the national diesel average reached $6.29 a gallon on Sep. 14, per the EIA.
- Dozens of nations have capped, subsidized or cut fuel taxes, per the IEA, and are curbing demand with remote work and travel limits.
- The US has set no retail fuel price caps or subsidies.
- IMF officials: "[A] large share of measures described as temporary lack clear expiration dates or fiscal cost estimates."
- UpdateUnidentified projectile hits Iranian container ship off Hengam Island, killing 1 and wounding 4
20 earlier issues
- Trump Threatens to Bomb Iranian Bridges and Power Plants for Every Ship Hit in Strait of Hormuz
- Iran fires multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. base in Jordan; all are intercepted
- Iran denies Trump’s claim that new U.S. talks would start Monday
- Cargo ship is struck in the Strait of Hormuz
- Vance says the Iran talks are moving, then calls the war only half over
- Iran won't reopen Hormuz until the US unfreezes its assets and lifts the blockade
- Trump threatens to bomb Oman, the U.S. ally brokering the deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
- Trump declares an "economic D-Day" on Iran as Hormuz traffic runs 85% below normal
- UpdateU.S. goes nearly a month without large Iran strikes as Trump shifts back to sanctions; Hormuz remains closed
- U.S. destroys two Iranian rocket launchers loaded to mine the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at bases in Jordan, all intercepted
- UpdateU.S. bombs two Iranian rocket sites near the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at Jordan
- UpdateU.S. forces struck IRGC air-defense, radar, maritime and mine-laying sites on Iran's southern coast starting at noon on Sept. 1
- UpdateU.S. hits about 100 Iranian targets; Iran fires back at American bases in four countries, and a cruise missile kills 4 at a wedding
- Reuters weapons experts say a US munition made a direct hit on the Iranian wedding house that killed 5
- US destroys or disables 3 Iranian oil tankers after Iran fired ballistic missiles at a US carrier and destroyer
- UpdateIran says it hit an unmanned US vessel a day after the tanker strikes; Central Command calls the claim "a total lie"
- UpdateIran says it will declare a restricted zone near the Strait of Hormuz and will strike threats "even before" they are carried out
- Iran says it seized a US sea drone in Hormuz; CENTCOM says it malfunctioned a day earlier
- UpdateIran fires 20 missiles at a US base in Jordan; Jordan says it intercepted 18
- UpdateNavy plans to keep 2 carrier groups near Iran at least through 2026
Ongoing21
This story has run 22 times over 59 days, starting Jul 23.
- Trump Threatens to Bomb Iranian Bridges and Power Plants for Every Ship Hit in Strait of Hormuz
- Iran fires multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. base in Jordan; all are intercepted
- Iran denies Trump’s claim that new U.S. talks would start Monday
- Cargo ship is struck in the Strait of Hormuz
- Vance says the Iran talks are moving, then calls the war only half over
- Iran won't reopen Hormuz until the US unfreezes its assets and lifts the blockade
- Trump threatens to bomb Oman, the U.S. ally brokering the deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
- Trump declares an "economic D-Day" on Iran as Hormuz traffic runs 85% below normal
- UpdateU.S. goes nearly a month without large Iran strikes as Trump shifts back to sanctions; Hormuz remains closed
- U.S. destroys two Iranian rocket launchers loaded to mine the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at bases in Jordan, all intercepted
- UpdateU.S. bombs two Iranian rocket sites near the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at Jordan
- UpdateU.S. forces struck IRGC air-defense, radar, maritime and mine-laying sites on Iran's southern coast starting at noon on Sept. 1
- UpdateU.S. hits about 100 Iranian targets; Iran fires back at American bases in four countries, and a cruise missile kills 4 at a wedding
- Reuters weapons experts say a US munition made a direct hit on the Iranian wedding house that killed 5
- US destroys or disables 3 Iranian oil tankers after Iran fired ballistic missiles at a US carrier and destroyer
- UpdateIran says it hit an unmanned US vessel a day after the tanker strikes; Central Command calls the claim "a total lie"
- UpdateIran says it will declare a restricted zone near the Strait of Hormuz and will strike threats "even before" they are carried out
- Iran says it seized a US sea drone in Hormuz; CENTCOM says it malfunctioned a day earlier
- UpdateIran fires 20 missiles at a US base in Jordan; Jordan says it intercepted 18
- UpdateNavy plans to keep 2 carrier groups near Iran at least through 2026
- UpdateUnidentified projectile hits Iranian container ship off Hengam Island, killing 1 and wounding 4
- UpdateOil's chokepoint shifts to refineries and tankers as JPMorgan drops its baseline oil forecast — this issue
Denmark and Greenland say the Greenland pact keeps their sovereignty, contradicting Trump's 'permanent control'
PBS NEWSHOURUpdateDanish and Greenlandic leaders backed the pact but said it recognizes their sovereignty and Greenlanders' right to self-determination. That language cuts against Trump's 'permanent control' framing. The text has not been released. It gives the US permanent access and overflight rights, bars non-NATO bases and limits adversarial investment, but hands over no territory. Analysts say it mostly restates basing rights the US has held since 1951. Leaders expect to sign it in New York during next week's UN General Assembly, and both parliaments must still approve it.
Catch up
Sep. 7 — Ursula von der Leyen pledged money for Greenland in Nuuk and promised to more than double that sum. Eleven NATO countries — not the US — ran exercises on the island. Sep. 19 — Trump announced a US-Denmark-Greenland security pact he described as giving the US "permanent control over security, and all other needs."
The terms, so far
- Greenland PM Jens-Frederik Nielsen: the deal "recognizes the sovereignty and territorial integrity of our kingdom and the right of the Greenlandic people to self-determination."
- Trump said the deal carries no cost to the United States.
- Greenland's population is roughly 56,000.
Ongoing1
This story has run 2 times, starting Sep 19.
- Trump says the U.S. and Denmark reached a deal giving America "permanent control over security" in Greenland
- UpdateDenmark and Greenland say the Greenland pact keeps their sovereignty, contradicting Trump's 'permanent control' — this issue
Google says Gemini guessed logins and got into 3 outside systems during a May test
NBC NEWSUpdateGoogle said Friday, Sept. 18, that the model guessed credentials or took them from a public repository. Google calls this mistaken identity, not misalignment.
The exercise ran in May as an internal safety test and was disclosed Friday, Sept. 18. The company has not named the three organizations involved or said whether it told them; it reports finding no damage.
Four paid AI subscribers sue Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceXAI and Google over agreeing to slow AI down
WASHINGTON EXAMINERUpdateFour paid subscribers are suing all four companies over that agreement. They call it an illegal deal among competitors to slow the product they bought. The ChatGPT, Claude, Grok and Gemini subscribers filed a proposed nationwide class action Friday, Sept. 18, in Northern District of California. They argue the companies' agreement to "pace the frontier" is an illegal restraint that cut the value of their subscriptions. In a Sept. 12 essay, Amodei asked the government to mediate such agreements or grant "a narrow waiver for certain kinds of safety conversations."
Catch up
Sep. 13 — Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei proposed a three-stage plan to slow frontier AI gains. He warned that agent swarms could seize internet infrastructure within 6 to 12 months. Sam Altman and Elon Musk backed the plan, and Anthropic promised outside evaluators employee-like access.
- Complaint: "The antitrust laws do not permit competitors to decide among themselves that competition is too dangerous."
- Altman says OpenAI would welcome a federal safety framework but does not think it needs to wait for an antitrust exemption or legislation.
- None of the four companies responded to requests for comment Saturday, Sept. 19.
Ongoing1
This story has run 2 times over 7 days, starting Sep 13.
- Anthropic chief executive Dario Amodei proposes a three-stage plan to slow frontier AI capability gains, warning agent swarms could seize internet infrastructure in 6 to 12 months.
- UpdateFour paid AI subscribers sue Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceXAI and Google over agreeing to slow AI down — this issue
Thousands ring the closed Kennedy Center as Trump ties the $257 million renovation to putting his name on it
PBS NEWSHOURUpdateCourts and the adminis…Thousands formed a human chain around the closed center Friday evening, Sept. 18, in a protest organizers called "Hands Around the Kennedy Center." Trump said the $257 million renovation Congress ordered will not proceed unless the D.C. Circuit or the Supreme Court overturns the ruling that barred his name. He called Judge Christopher Cooper "conflicted" and "very hostile." The Trump-aligned board had voted days earlier to shut the building indefinitely.
Catch up
Sep. 18 — A federal judge blocked the return of Trump's name to the Kennedy Center. He also ordered 30 days' notice before any major physical change, including demolition. Hours later, the Trump-aligned board voted to close the building indefinitely for repairs.
- Congress made the center by statute the "sole national memorial" to President Kennedy in Washington. That is why courts say only Congress can rename it.
- The center opened in 1971 with the world premiere of Leonard Bernstein's Mass.
- Fresh layoffs have begun while the main building stays dark.
Ongoing2
This story has run 3 times over 4 days, starting Sep 16.
- UpdateThe Kennedy Center will close for two years after a judge voided the vote to put Trump's name on it
- UpdateJudge orders 30 days' written notice before any change to the Kennedy Center, including demolition, but refuses an emergency hearing on this week's closure
- UpdateThousands ring the closed Kennedy Center as Trump ties the $257 million renovation to putting his name on it — this issue
Fitzpatrick voted against Trump's tariffs, tax law and Iran war powers — and lifelong GOP backers are still leaving him
ABC NEWSIran warThe five-term Republican won his 2024 race comfortably in a district Harris carried by less than a point. He also skipped Trump's midterm convention in Dallas. It hasn't held his base. Mary Ryan, 60, a registered Republican who backed him all five terms, is voting for Democrat Bob Harvie this year.
- Harvie is a twice countywide-elected Bucks County commissioner and a former social studies teacher.
- Fitzpatrick on weighing each vote against his constituents' interests: "That's the job."
Nearly 200,000 children ordered removed since Trump took office, double the prior rate
THE GUARDIANImmigration enforcementMobile Pathways, an immigrant legal-aid group, counted nearly 200,000 children ordered removed between January 2025 and September 2026 in Justice Department immigration-court data. A removal order is not a deportation. The count includes orders issued when a child missed a court date, and orders that can still be appealed. The group says the true number is probably higher. Its count covers only kids who came to immigration court, alone or with family. The government has not confirmed the number.
-
The pace roughly doubled inside the group's own data — 7,366 child removal orders in January 2025, rising past 16,000 a month by this summer, per Mobile Pathways.
-
HHS, DHS and DOJ are central to the effort; State and Defense play subsidiary roles.
-
DOJ houses the immigration courts; DHS houses ICE and USCIS.
-
Home heating costs to rise 8.7% this winter, with heating oil up 31.3%
ABC NEWSNearly 5 million households heat with oil, 82% of them in the Northeast. Their average winter bill rises from $1,749 to $2,297. Crude is holding near $103 a barrel and diesel is at a record.
Projected increases by fuel
- Natural gas: up 5.8%
- Electricity: up 9.0%; propane: up 8.7%
- Maine heating oil is already $5.77 a gallon, 74% above a year ago
Pennsylvania reports 4 measles deaths this year; CDC's count is still 0
THE HILLUpdatePennsylvania logged two more measles-associated deaths Tuesday, Sept. 15, for a total of 4 this year. The CDC dashboard still shows zero: the National Center for Health Statistics has no 2026 record listing measles as an underlying cause. The emergency aid Gov. Josh Shapiro (Gov-D Pennsylvania) wants requires the CDC to recognize the deaths first. Trump called Shapiro "close to incompetent," and Kennedy accused him of refusing to cooperate.
Catch up
On Sep. 18, Pennsylvania formally asked the CDC for emergency measles assistance, which the agency can only provide if it publicly counts the state's measles deaths — something it had not done.
- US measles cases are the highest since 1991, with more related deaths than any year since 1992
- Measles was declared eliminated in the United States in 2000
- Shapiro, with HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. behind Trump in the Oval Office: "Incompetence is standing right behind you, Mr. President."
4 earlier issues
- Pennsylvania reports 2 measles-associated deaths, its first in 35 years, as coroner disputes infant case
- CDC leaves two Pennsylvania measles deaths out of its national count
- Unvaccinated 40-year-old Pennsylvania woman dies of measles complications, third death tied to outbreak
- UpdateCDC counts only NCHS-listed measles deaths, showing zero for 2026
Ongoing5
This story has run 6 times over 23 days, starting Aug 28.
- Pennsylvania reports 2 measles-associated deaths, its first in 35 years, as coroner disputes infant case
- CDC leaves two Pennsylvania measles deaths out of its national count
- Unvaccinated 40-year-old Pennsylvania woman dies of measles complications, third death tied to outbreak
- UpdateCDC counts only NCHS-listed measles deaths, showing zero for 2026
- UpdatePennsylvania confirmed its fourth measles death this year, an 18-year-old, while the CDC's national count remains zero.
- UpdatePennsylvania reports 4 measles deaths this year; CDC's count is still 0 — this issue
House adjourned a day early and won't return until Nov. 9, with gas at $4.40
WASHINGTON EXAMINERSpeaker Mike Johnson said the chamber "has done its work." Thomas Massie (Rep-R Kentucky) said the extra day off blocked a privileged vote on his eight articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. The articles accuse him of waging war on Iran without a declaration. They also say he defied the war-powers resolutions both chambers passed. Leadership has not given its own account. House rules give a privileged resolution a vote within 48 hours, so leaving early runs out the clock.
- Before leaving, the House passed a Russia sanctions bill and a measure shifting data-center electricity and water costs onto tech companies.
- AAA put the national gas average at $4.48 a gallon on Sept. 19 after passing $4.40 mid-week.
- The Senate has two weeks left and is prioritizing a bipartisan college sports bill; an energy permitting deal waits until after the elections.
Newsom signs 13 bills making it a felony to seize California ballots before certification
THE HILL2026 midtermsTHE HILL: Newsom signs 13 bills making it a felony to seize California ballots before certification
Assembly Bill 282 makes it a felony to seize ballots, election records or certified voting machines before results are certified. It is also a felony for an official to order a subordinate to do it. A May law already covers federal agents. They cannot touch voter rolls or election technology without a court order. The new bill builds on that. Lawmakers cast the package as a shield against federal interference. The Justice Department has sued California and about 30 other states for refusing to hand over their voter files.
- Another bill requires election officials to notify the secretary of state and attorney general of any attempt to obtain election records or technology.
- The package also restricts law enforcement activity near polling places, expands ballot drop-off locations and requires translated materials.
- California votes Nov. 3, 2026.
Signed in Los Angeles Saturday, six weeks before the Nov. 3 midterms.
65% of Hispanic voters disapprove of Trump, and two GOP Latinos ran ads against ICE
THE GUARDIAN2026 midtermsTHE GUARDIAN: 65% of Hispanic voters disapprove of Trump, and two GOP Latinos ran ads against ICE
A September New York Times/Siena poll put Trump's disapproval among Hispanic voters at 65%, with 78% saying they want Democrats to control Congress. Maria Elvira Salazar (Rep-R Florida) and Monica De La Cruz (R-Texas) each released ads breaking with the deportation campaign. Salazar said it has "gone too far" and that the administration "betrayed" Hispanic voters. Trump won both districts in 2024, by 14 and 18 points.
- A September Fox News survey found 63% of Hispanic respondents plan to vote for their district's Democratic candidate.
- An April/May UnidosUS poll had Hispanic voters backing Democratic House candidates 54% to 27%.
- Nearly two-thirds of Hispanic Texas voters said they are less likely to back a candidate who supports Trump's deportation policies, per Cook Political Report-TelevisaUnivision.
78% want Democrats to control Congress, per a September New York Times/Siena poll.
Silver's model puts Democrats up 7.8 points on the generic congressional ballot
@NATESILVER5382026 midterms@NATESILVER538: Silver's model puts Democrats up 7.8 points on the generic congressional ballot
Nate Silver's Saturday, Sept. 19, update puts Democrats up 7.8 points on the generic ballot. That is down from 8.6 among likely voters. He called the lead "deeply into wave territory." Silver said a run of strong Democratic polls drove the number. His team did catch a small bug in how expert ratings loaded into the model. He said that was not the cause.
Elections22 races
The midterms · 44 days out · November 3, 2026
D or R take the House / Senate?
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 93%, Kalshi 90%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 61%, Kalshi 60%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.
No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only
Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.
- two venues, priced separately
- shaded = how far apart they are
- 50% — control flips here
- where it stood 7 days ago
- the last 7 days, on its own scale
- week panel: one line a party
The week panel draws one line per party, crossing where control does. Only the Democratic line is a traded price: the Republicanline is its arithmetic complement, the same mirror the bar’s other half is, and not a second market agreeing with the first. The shading around each line is how far apart the two venues are.
Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.
The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 2.2pp gap / 1.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.
Who is defending the House and the Senate is sourced, not remembered — House, 2026-07-23 issue: the NDAA passed “216-212, with six Democrats joining a unified Republican majority.”; Senate, 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.”
Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
| Day | U.S. House · Polymarket | U.S. House · Kalshi | U.S. Senate · Polymarket | U.S. Senate · Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days ago | 88% | 86% | 54% | 49% |
| 6 days ago | 87% | 86% | 59% | 52% |
| 5 days ago | 89% | 86% | 59% | 55% |
| 4 days ago | 90% | 89% | 60% | 56% |
| 3 days ago | 90% | 90% | 61% | 59% |
| 2 days ago | 91% | 89% | 61% | 59% |
| yesterday | 93% | 90% | 61% | 60% |
| today | 93% | 90% | 61% | 60% |
3 closest races
xNevada governor
POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election
Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).
Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Republican side holds a narrow lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Nevada governor
Sep 19, 11:32 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 53.5%, Kalshi 54.5%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 45.5%, Kalshi 46.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Joe Lombardo 54% · Aaron Ford 46%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Joe Lombardo (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$113K48%Kalshi269K contracts · 54%/55%56%venue gap8.0pp7-day move+5.5ppAaron Ford (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$46.2K50%Kalshi507K contracts · 46%/47%45%venue gap5.0pp7-day move-4.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nevada governor, snapshot Sep 19, 11:32 PM CT. Day Joe Lombardo · Polymarket Joe Lombardo · Kalshi Aaron Ford · Polymarket Aaron Ford · Kalshi 7 days ago 48.0% 56.0% 50.0% 45.0% 6 days ago 46.0% 54.0% 48.0% 46.0% 5 days ago 53.5% 55.0% 46.5% 46.0% 4 days ago 49.5% 55.0% 44.5% 45.0% 3 days ago 54.0% 56.0% 45.5% 44.0% 2 days ago 54.0% 56.0% 45.0% 45.0% yesterday 53.5% 55.0% 45.5% 46.0% today 53.5% 54.5% 45.5% 46.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
uOhio Senate
POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election
Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).
A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead.
Two markets, one question
Ohio Senate
Sep 19, 11:32 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 54.5%, Kalshi 55.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 45.5%, Kalshi 45.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Sherrod Brown 55% · Jon Husted 46%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Sherrod Brown (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$282K53.5%Kalshi1.7M contracts · 55%/56%52.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+1.0ppJon Husted (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$177K46.5%Kalshi1.8M contracts · 45%/46%48.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio Senate, snapshot Sep 19, 11:32 PM CT. Day Sherrod Brown · Polymarket Sherrod Brown · Kalshi Jon Husted · Polymarket Jon Husted · Kalshi 7 days ago 53.5% 52.0% 46.5% 48.0% 6 days ago 56.5% 54.0% 44.5% 47.0% 5 days ago 56.5% 55.0% 43.5% 46.0% 4 days ago 54.5% 53.0% 45.5% 47.0% 3 days ago 54.5% 55.0% 45.5% 46.0% 2 days ago 54.5% 55.0% 45.5% 45.0% yesterday 54.5% 55.0% 45.5% 45.0% today 54.5% 55.5% 45.5% 45.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
wGeorgia governor
POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).
Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia governor
Sep 19, 11:32 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 57.5%, Kalshi 54.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 43.5%, Kalshi 45.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Keisha Lance Bottoms 55% · Rick Jackson 45%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$40.3K58%Kalshi312K contracts · 54%/55%54%venue gap4.0pp7-day move-0.5ppRick Jackson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$45.5K42.5%Kalshi449K contracts · 45%/46%46.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia governor, snapshot Sep 19, 11:32 PM CT. Day Keisha Lance Bottoms · Polymarket Keisha Lance Bottoms · Kalshi Rick Jackson · Polymarket Rick Jackson · Kalshi 7 days ago 58.0% 54.0% 42.5% 46.0% 6 days ago 58.0% 56.0% 40.5% 43.0% 5 days ago 56.5% 56.0% 43.5% 45.0% 4 days ago 56.5% 53.0% 43.5% 48.0% 3 days ago 56.5% 53.0% 43.5% 47.0% 2 days ago 56.5% 55.0% 43.5% 45.0% yesterday 57.5% 55.0% 43.5% 46.0% today 57.5% 54.5% 43.5% 45.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
The other 19 races
Senate9 of 10
rAlaska Senate
POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election
Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).
A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead after Sullivan lost about seven points in six days.
Two markets, one question
Alaska Senate
Sep 19, 11:32 PM CT
widest venue gap 4.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 73.5%, Kalshi 69.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 26.5%, Kalshi 30.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Mary Peltola 73% · Dan Sullivan 28%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Mary Peltola (D)7 days agoPolymarket$292K66.5%Kalshi96.8K contracts · 69%/70%68.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+7.0ppDan Sullivan (R)7 days agoPolymarket$163K33.5%Kalshi78.8K contracts · 30%/31%—venue gap—7-day move-7.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska Senate, snapshot Sep 19, 11:32 PM CT. Day Mary Peltola · Polymarket Mary Peltola · Kalshi Dan Sullivan · Polymarket Dan Sullivan · Kalshi 7 days ago 66.5% 68.0% 33.5% — 6 days ago 65.5% 68.0% 34.5% 37.0% 5 days ago 65.5% 66.0% 34.5% 37.0% 4 days ago 67.5% 68.0% 33.5% 35.0% 3 days ago 72.5% 69.0% 27.5% 31.0% 2 days ago 74.5% 70.0% 26.5% 34.0% yesterday 73.5% 70.0% 26.5% 31.0% today 73.5% 69.5% 26.5% 30.5% zGeorgia Senate
POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election
Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia Senate
Sep 19, 11:32 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.4pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 94.00%, Kalshi 93.55%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 5.25%, Kalshi 6.60%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.4pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jon Ossoff 94% · Mike Collins 6.5%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jon Ossoff (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$61.0K93.5%Kalshi392K contracts · 93%/94%93.4%venue gap0.1pp7-day move+0.5ppMike Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$90.3K6.45%Kalshi938K contracts · 6.2%/7.0%7.50%venue gap1.0pp7-day move-1.2ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia Senate, snapshot Sep 19, 11:32 PM CT. Day Jon Ossoff · Polymarket Jon Ossoff · Kalshi Mike Collins · Polymarket Mike Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 93.5% 93.40% 6.45% 7.5% 6 days ago 92.5% 93.50% 6.65% 7.0% 5 days ago 93.0% 93.80% 7.10% 6.6% 4 days ago 93.5% 93.10% 6.75% 6.8% 3 days ago 93.5% 94.00% 7.05% 7.5% 2 days ago 94.0% 94.00% 5.35% 6.0% yesterday 94.0% 93.20% 5.25% 7.0% today 94.0% 93.55% 5.25% 6.6% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
sIowa Senate
POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election
Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).
An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Iowa Senate
Sep 19, 11:32 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 61.0%, Kalshi 59.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 39.0%, Kalshi 40.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Ashley Hinson 60% · Josh Turek 40%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Ashley Hinson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$214K56.5%Kalshi1.2M contracts · 59%/60%61.0%venue gap4.5pp7-day move+4.5ppJosh Turek (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$192K42.5%Kalshi1.7M contracts · 40%/41%39.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move-3.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa Senate, snapshot Sep 19, 11:32 PM CT. Day Ashley Hinson · Polymarket Ashley Hinson · Kalshi Josh Turek · Polymarket Josh Turek · Kalshi 7 days ago 56.5% 61.0% 42.5% 39.0% 6 days ago 57.0% 62.0% 41.5% 39.0% 5 days ago 57.5% 61.0% 40.5% 39.0% 4 days ago 60.5% 61.0% 39.5% 40.0% 3 days ago 60.5% 61.0% 39.5% 40.0% 2 days ago 61.0% 61.0% 39.0% 40.0% yesterday 61.0% 60.0% 39.0% 40.0% today 61.0% 59.5% 39.0% 40.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
pMaine Senate
POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election
Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).
Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Maine Senate
Sep 19, 11:32 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 69.5%, Kalshi 67.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 33.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Troy Jackson 68% · Susan Collins 33%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Troy Jackson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$860K70.5%Kalshi2.6M contracts · 67%/68%66.0%venue gap4.5pp7-day move-1.0ppSusan Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$573K29.5%Kalshi3.0M contracts · 33%/34%33.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Maine Senate, snapshot Sep 19, 11:32 PM CT. Day Troy Jackson · Polymarket Troy Jackson · Kalshi Susan Collins · Polymarket Susan Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 70.5% 66.0% 29.5% 33.0% 6 days ago 70.5% 67.0% 30.5% 35.0% 5 days ago 70.5% 66.0% 29.5% 35.0% 4 days ago 70.5% 68.0% 29.5% 33.0% 3 days ago 70.5% 67.0% 29.5% 33.0% 2 days ago 69.5% 68.0% 30.5% 33.0% yesterday 69.5% 67.0% 30.5% 34.0% today 69.5% 67.5% 30.5% 33.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
tMichigan Senate
POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election
Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side lost about six points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan Senate
Sep 19, 11:32 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 65.5%, Kalshi 65.0%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 34.5%, Kalshi 35.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 65% · Mike Rogers 35%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Abdul El-Sayed (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$471K61.5%Kalshi1.5M contracts · 64%/66%61.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+4.0ppMike Rogers (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$369K39.5%Kalshi2.2M contracts · 34%/36%41.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-5.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan Senate, snapshot Sep 19, 11:32 PM CT. Day Abdul El-Sayed · Polymarket Abdul El-Sayed · Kalshi Mike Rogers · Polymarket Mike Rogers · Kalshi 7 days ago 61.5% 61% 39.5% 41% 6 days ago 61.5% 62% 39.5% 39% 5 days ago 66.5% 62% 33.5% 39% 4 days ago 64.0% 65% 35.0% 36% 3 days ago 65.5% 65% 35.5% 37% 2 days ago 65.5% 65% 34.5% 37% yesterday 65.5% 66% 34.5% 34% today 65.5% 65% 34.5% 35% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
aaNebraska Senate
POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election
Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Nebraska Senate
Sep 19, 11:32 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 67.5%, Kalshi 68.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 32.5%, Kalshi 31.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Pete Ricketts 68% · Dan Osborn 32%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Pete Ricketts (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$119K67.5%Kalshi760K contracts · 68%/69%70.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move0.0ppDan Osborn (I)7 days agoPolymarket$73.2K32.5%Kalshi539K contracts · 31%/32%27.0%venue gap5.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nebraska Senate, snapshot Sep 19, 11:32 PM CT. Day Pete Ricketts · Polymarket Pete Ricketts · Kalshi Dan Osborn · Polymarket Dan Osborn · Kalshi 7 days ago 67.5% 70.0% 32.5% 27.0% 6 days ago 67.5% 70.0% 32.5% 30.0% 5 days ago 67.5% 69.0% 32.5% 31.0% 4 days ago 67.5% 70.0% 32.5% 31.0% 3 days ago 67.5% 69.0% 32.5% 31.0% 2 days ago 67.5% 69.0% 32.5% 31.0% yesterday 67.5% 69.0% 32.5% 32.0% today 67.5% 68.5% 32.5% 31.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
abNew Hampshire Senate
POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election
Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side gained about three points in a week.
Two markets, one question
New Hampshire Senate
Sep 19, 11:32 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 80.5%, Kalshi 83.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 17.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Chris Pappas 83% · John E. Sununu 18%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Chris Pappas (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$106K83.5%Kalshi336K contracts · 83%/84%85.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-3.0ppJohn E. Sununu (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$79.6K15.5%Kalshi569K contracts · 17%/18%16.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+4.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. New Hampshire Senate, snapshot Sep 19, 11:32 PM CT. Day Chris Pappas · Polymarket Chris Pappas · Kalshi John E. Sununu · Polymarket John E. Sununu · Kalshi 7 days ago 83.5% 85.0% 15.5% 16.0% 6 days ago 80.5% 82.0% 17.5% 18.0% 5 days ago 82.0% 82.0% 18.5% 19.0% 4 days ago 84.0% 82.0% 16.5% 19.0% 3 days ago 80.5% 80.0% 19.5% 20.0% 2 days ago 80.5% 84.0% 19.5% 18.0% yesterday 80.5% 84.0% 19.5% 18.0% today 80.5% 83.5% 19.5% 17.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
yNorth Carolina Senate
POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election
Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
North Carolina Senate
Sep 19, 11:32 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.6pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 92.50%, Kalshi 92.35%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 8.50%, Kalshi 7.95%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.6pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Roy Cooper 92% · Michael Whatley 8.0%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Roy Cooper (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$54.9K90.5%Kalshi1.3M contracts · 92%/93%92.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+2.0ppMichael Whatley (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$66.7K10%Kalshi796K contracts · 7.9%/8.0%9%venue gap1.0pp7-day move-1.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. North Carolina Senate, snapshot Sep 19, 11:32 PM CT. Day Roy Cooper · Polymarket Roy Cooper · Kalshi Michael Whatley · Polymarket Michael Whatley · Kalshi 7 days ago 90.5% 92.00% 10.0% 9.00% 6 days ago 91.5% 92.30% 9.0% 8.80% 5 days ago 91.5% 92.20% 8.5% 8.10% 4 days ago 91.5% 91.90% 8.5% 8.70% 3 days ago 92.5% 92.20% 8.5% 7.40% 2 days ago 92.5% 92.60% 8.5% 8.00% yesterday 92.5% 92.70% 8.5% 8.00% today 92.5% 92.35% 8.5% 7.95% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
qTexas Senate
POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election
James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).
The Democratic side holds a clear lead after gaining about eight points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Texas Senate
Sep 19, 11:32 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 59.5%, Kalshi 59.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 41.5%, Kalshi 41.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: James Talarico 60% · Ken Paxton 42%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
James Talarico (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$590K52.5%Kalshi5.7M contracts · 59%/60%51.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+7.0ppKen Paxton (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$747K48.5%Kalshi7.7M contracts · 41%/42%50.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-7.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas Senate, snapshot Sep 19, 11:32 PM CT. Day James Talarico · Polymarket James Talarico · Kalshi Ken Paxton · Polymarket Ken Paxton · Kalshi 7 days ago 52.5% 51.0% 48.5% 50.0% 6 days ago 55.5% 52.0% 45.5% 50.0% 5 days ago 56.5% 54.0% 44.5% 47.0% 4 days ago 57.5% 54.0% 41.5% 47.0% 3 days ago 59.5% 57.0% 41.5% 44.0% 2 days ago 59.5% 58.0% 41.5% 43.0% yesterday 59.5% 60.0% 41.5% 42.0% today 59.5% 59.5% 41.5% 41.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
Governors10 of 12
adAlaska governor
POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election
Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).
Wilson holds a clear lead, but no race here has moved more this week: it is down about nine points.
Two markets, one question
Alaska governor
Sep 19, 11:32 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 16.0%, Kalshi 15.5%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 0.35%, Kalshi 0.35%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Bernadette Wilson 16% · Tom Begich 0.3%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Bernadette Wilson (R)7 days agoPolymarket$176K26.5%Kalshi52.8K contracts · 14%/17%—venue gap—7-day move-11ppTom Begich (D)7 days agoPolymarket$162K1.4%Kalshi242K contracts · 0.3%/0.4%—venue gap—7-day move-1.1ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska governor, snapshot Sep 19, 11:32 PM CT. Day Bernadette Wilson · Polymarket Bernadette Wilson · Kalshi Tom Begich · Polymarket Tom Begich · Kalshi 7 days ago 26.5% — 1.40% — 6 days ago 27.0% 24.0% 1.35% 0.30% 5 days ago 26.5% 25.0% 1.30% 0.30% 4 days ago 24.0% 24.0% 1.20% 0.30% 3 days ago 23.5% 26.0% 0.80% 0.30% 2 days ago 13.5% 21.0% 0.40% 0.30% yesterday 16.0% 13.0% 0.35% 0.40% today 16.0% 15.5% 0.35% 0.35% afArizona governor
POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election
Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Arizona governor
Sep 19, 11:32 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 87.5%, Kalshi 87.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 12.5%, Kalshi 13.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Katie Hobbs 88% · Andy Biggs 13%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Katie Hobbs (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$32.3K87%Kalshi333K contracts · 87%/88%87%venue gap0.0pp7-day move+0.5ppAndy Biggs (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$36.7K12.5%Kalshi259K contracts · 12%/14%14.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Arizona governor, snapshot Sep 19, 11:32 PM CT. Day Katie Hobbs · Polymarket Katie Hobbs · Kalshi Andy Biggs · Polymarket Andy Biggs · Kalshi 7 days ago 87.0% 87.0% 12.5% 14% 6 days ago 87.5% 88.0% 12.5% 13% 5 days ago 87.5% 88.0% 12.5% 12% 4 days ago 87.5% 88.0% 12.5% 13% 3 days ago 87.5% 89.0% 12.5% 14% 2 days ago 87.5% 88.0% 12.5% 13% yesterday 87.5% 88.0% 12.5% 14% today 87.5% 87.5% 12.5% 13% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
ajFlorida governor
POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election
Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).
Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Florida governor
Sep 19, 11:32 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 79.5%, Kalshi 79.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 20.5%, Kalshi 21.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Byron Donalds 80% · David Jolly 21%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Byron Donalds (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$47.6K81.5%Kalshi1.2M contracts · 79%/80%80.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-2.0ppDavid Jolly (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$37.6K18.5%Kalshi536K contracts · 21%/22%20.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Florida governor, snapshot Sep 19, 11:32 PM CT. Day Byron Donalds · Polymarket Byron Donalds · Kalshi David Jolly · Polymarket David Jolly · Kalshi 7 days ago 81.5% 80.0% 18.5% 20.0% 6 days ago 81.5% 81.0% 18.5% 21.0% 5 days ago 80.5% 81.0% 19.5% 20.0% 4 days ago 79.5% 80.0% 20.0% 20.0% 3 days ago 79.5% 78.0% 20.5% 22.0% 2 days ago 79.5% 79.0% 20.5% 22.0% yesterday 79.5% 80.0% 20.5% 22.0% today 79.5% 79.5% 20.5% 21.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
acIowa governor
POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election
Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Iowa governor
Sep 19, 11:32 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 77.5%, Kalshi 79.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 23.5%, Kalshi 21.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Rob Sand 79% · Zach Lahn 22%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Rob Sand (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$34.9K77%Kalshi354K contracts · 79%/80%78%venue gap1.0pp7-day move+0.5ppZach Lahn (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$45.8K23.5%Kalshi346K contracts · 21%/22%24.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa governor, snapshot Sep 19, 11:32 PM CT. Day Rob Sand · Polymarket Rob Sand · Kalshi Zach Lahn · Polymarket Zach Lahn · Kalshi 7 days ago 77.0% 78.0% 23.5% 24.0% 6 days ago 77.0% 77.0% 23.5% 23.0% 5 days ago 77.0% 79.0% 24.0% 23.0% 4 days ago 76.5% 79.0% 23.0% 21.0% 3 days ago 77.5% 79.0% 23.5% 21.0% 2 days ago 77.5% 79.0% 23.5% 23.0% yesterday 77.5% 80.0% 23.5% 22.0% today 77.5% 79.5% 23.5% 21.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
aeMichigan governor
POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election
Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan governor
Sep 19, 11:32 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.4pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 92.0%, Kalshi 91.6%; John James (R): Polymarket 8.50%, Kalshi 8.75%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.4pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Jocelyn Benson 92% · John James 8.6%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jocelyn Benson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$50.6K92.5%Kalshi75.0K contracts · 91%/93%92.6%venue gap0.1pp7-day move-0.5ppJohn James (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$157K7%Kalshi139K contracts · 8.1%/9.4%—venue gap—7-day move+1.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan governor, snapshot Sep 19, 11:32 PM CT. Day Jocelyn Benson · Polymarket Jocelyn Benson · Kalshi John James · Polymarket John James · Kalshi 7 days ago 92.5% 92.6% 7.0% — 6 days ago 92.0% 92.8% 6.5% 12.00% 5 days ago 92.0% 89.0% 6.5% 12.00% 4 days ago 92.0% 92.2% 9.0% 8.60% 3 days ago 92.0% 92.5% 8.5% 8.80% 2 days ago 91.5% 91.6% 8.5% 7.70% yesterday 92.0% 92.7% 8.5% 9.60% today 92.0% 91.6% 8.5% 8.75% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
ahNew York governor
POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election
Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
New York governor
Sep 19, 11:32 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.2pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 94.00%, Kalshi 92.75%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 6.5%, Kalshi 7.3%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.2pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Kathy Hochul 93% · Bruce Blakeman 7.3%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Kathy Hochul (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$51.0K94.5%Kalshi374K contracts · 93%/93%92.2%venue gap2.3pp7-day move-0.5ppBruce Blakeman (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$68.6K6.5%Kalshi1.1M contracts · 7.1%/7.5%8.9%venue gap2.4pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. New York governor, snapshot Sep 19, 11:32 PM CT. Day Kathy Hochul · Polymarket Kathy Hochul · Kalshi Bruce Blakeman · Polymarket Bruce Blakeman · Kalshi 7 days ago 94.5% 92.20% 6.5% 8.9% 6 days ago 93.5% 92.30% 6.5% 8.5% 5 days ago 93.5% 92.30% 6.5% 8.2% 4 days ago 93.5% 92.50% 6.5% 7.9% 3 days ago 94.0% 92.60% 6.5% 8.1% 2 days ago 94.0% 93.10% 6.5% 7.8% yesterday 94.0% 92.50% 6.5% 7.4% today 94.0% 92.75% 6.5% 7.3% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
oOhio governor
POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election
Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).
Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Ohio governor
Sep 19, 11:32 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 56.5%, Kalshi 57.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 42.5%, Kalshi 42.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Amy Acton 57% · Vivek Ramaswamy 43%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Amy Acton (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$93.4K54.5%Kalshi800K contracts · 57%/58%57.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+2.0ppVivek Ramaswamy (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$109K45%Kalshi860K contracts · 42%/43%47%venue gap2.0pp7-day move-2.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio governor, snapshot Sep 19, 11:32 PM CT. Day Amy Acton · Polymarket Amy Acton · Kalshi Vivek Ramaswamy · Polymarket Vivek Ramaswamy · Kalshi 7 days ago 54.5% 57.0% 45.0% 47.0% 6 days ago 55.0% 55.0% 44.0% 47.0% 5 days ago 55.0% 55.0% 44.0% 46.0% 4 days ago 54.5% 54.0% 45.5% 47.0% 3 days ago 55.5% 56.0% 43.5% 45.0% 2 days ago 56.5% 58.0% 42.5% 43.0% yesterday 56.5% 58.0% 42.5% 43.0% today 56.5% 57.5% 42.5% 42.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
aiPennsylvania governor
POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election
Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Pennsylvania governor
Sep 19, 11:32 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.6pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 96.80%, Kalshi 96.85%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.6%, Kalshi 3.2%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.6pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 6–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Josh Shapiro 97% · Stacy Garrity 3.1%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Josh Shapiro (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$7.5K96.9%Kalshi102K contracts · 96%/97%—venue gap—7-day move-0.1ppStacy Garrity (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$42.4K2.25%Kalshi401K contracts · 3.0%/3.4%—venue gap—7-day move+0.3ppEvery sample behind the chart. Pennsylvania governor, snapshot Sep 19, 11:32 PM CT. Day Josh Shapiro · Polymarket Josh Shapiro · Kalshi Stacy Garrity · Polymarket Stacy Garrity · Kalshi 7 days ago 96.90% — 2.25% — 6 days ago 97.00% — 2.40% 3.4% 5 days ago 96.60% 97.10% 2.55% 3.3% 4 days ago 96.25% 97.20% 2.95% 2.9% 3 days ago 96.95% 96.50% 2.60% 3.4% 2 days ago 96.55% 97.50% 2.60% 3.4% yesterday 96.65% 96.80% 2.60% 3.5% today 96.80% 96.85% 2.60% 3.2% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
agTexas governor
POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election
Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead after losing about four points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Texas governor
Sep 19, 11:32 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.7pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 79.25%, Kalshi 78.50%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 21.0%, Kalshi 21.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.7pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Greg Abbott 79% · Gina Hinojosa 21%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Greg Abbott (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$56.0K83.1%Kalshi232K contracts · 78%/79%83.0%venue gap0.1pp7-day move-3.8ppGina Hinojosa (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$67.2K16.5%Kalshi786K contracts · 21%/22%19.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+4.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas governor, snapshot Sep 19, 11:32 PM CT. Day Greg Abbott · Polymarket Greg Abbott · Kalshi Gina Hinojosa · Polymarket Gina Hinojosa · Kalshi 7 days ago 83.10% 83.0% 16.5% 19.0% 6 days ago 83.30% 82.0% 16.0% 18.0% 5 days ago 82.90% 84.0% 16.5% 17.0% 4 days ago 77.45% 83.0% 22.0% 18.0% 3 days ago 78.65% 77.0% 22.5% 25.0% 2 days ago 80.00% 78.0% 21.0% 22.0% yesterday 79.25% 79.0% 21.0% 21.0% today 79.25% 78.5% 21.0% 21.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
vWisconsin governor
POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election
David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).
An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Wisconsin governor
Sep 19, 11:32 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 83.5%, Kalshi 84.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 15.5%, Kalshi 16.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: David Crowley 84% · Tom Tiffany 16%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
David Crowley (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$316K83.5%Kalshi472K contracts · 84%/85%81.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move0.0ppTom Tiffany (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$278K15.5%Kalshi732K contracts · 16%/17%19.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Wisconsin governor, snapshot Sep 19, 11:32 PM CT. Day David Crowley · Polymarket David Crowley · Kalshi Tom Tiffany · Polymarket Tom Tiffany · Kalshi 7 days ago 83.5% 81.0% 15.5% 19.0% 6 days ago 83.5% 80.0% 16.5% 20.0% 5 days ago 83.5% 80.0% 16.5% 21.0% 4 days ago 83.5% 80.0% 16.5% 19.0% 3 days ago 83.5% 82.0% 15.5% 20.0% 2 days ago 83.5% 81.0% 15.5% 20.0% yesterday 83.5% 85.0% 15.5% 16.0% today 83.5% 84.5% 15.5% 16.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Sep 19, 11:32 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.
Not news news1 story
Advisers say Trump has privately accepted blunt assessments that Republicans are in trouble, with cost-of-living the dominant issue.
20 states are already mailing ballots — including Texas, Michigan and North Carolina, the three with the most contested Senate races — and in-person early voting opened Friday, Sept. 18. Election Day is 45 days out, on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026; the primaries are finished, so the matchups are set.
The Republican worry. Advisers told the Washington Post that Trump has privately accepted blunt assessments of his party's poor odds — some of it his own making. The cost of living is the issue voters keep naming. Control of Congress for the rest of his term is the stake. ([TS]Gallup: below-50% approval presidents lose 37 House seats on average, versus 14 above)
In-person early voting opened Friday, Sept. 18, in Virginia, Minnesota and South Dakota — the first states to start.
How much of each Senate state votes before Election Day
- Texas, 2024 ballots cast by mail: about 3%
- Michigan, ballots cast early in November 2024: 60%; North Carolina, cast early in 2022: 58.1%
- National 2024 split — mail 29.0%, early in person 30.7%, Election Day 39.6%
