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Oct 22026

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Executive summary4 stories

News news4

  1. Pentagon sends about 9,000 more sailors and Marines toward Iran on the carrier Theodore Roosevelt and three amphibious shipsThe Roosevelt is due in the region by the end of November, about three weeks after the Tuesday, Nov. 3 midterm elections, per the Financial Times.
  2. Rubio orders Iran's UN delegation out of New York; Trump says Iran will "sign a very fair deal, or they won't exist any longer"Araghchi's team came for the UN General Assembly; a U.S. official said it had to go once the meeting ended.
  3. Average 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 points to 7.28%, the biggest weekly jump since September 2022It is the sixth straight weekly rise, and the rate was 5.98% in the week before the Iran war began in late February.
  4. Supreme Court agrees to decide whether ICE can jail immigrants who entered illegally without a bond hearingNine federal appeals courts and more than 500 district judges have rejected the policy, in force since July 2025; only the 5th and 8th Circuits have upheld it.

News news4 stories

Ongoing3 earlier updates18 days

This story has run 4 times over 18 days, starting Sep 14.

  1. Pentagon orders defense industry to wartime footing after US fired thousands of missiles in Iran war
  2. UpdatePentagon watchdog says Iran war cost $33.4 billion through June 30, caused munitions shortfall
  3. Iranian cruise missile hit a ship carrying 8 US Marines in the Strait of Hormuz on Sept. 14; the Pentagon never announced it
  4. UpdatePentagon sends about 9,000 more sailors and Marines toward Iran on the carrier Theodore Roosevelt and three amphibious ships — this issue
THE HILLUpdateIran war

Pentagon sends about 9,000 more sailors and Marines toward Iran on the carrier Theodore Roosevelt and three amphibious ships

The Roosevelt is due in the region by the end of November, about three weeks after the Tuesday, Nov. 3 midterm elections, per the Financial Times.

The Pentagon is sending two groups of ships to the Middle East, about 9,000 people in all, while Trump weighs more strikes on Iran.

The Marines. The Makin Island Amphibious Ready Group (three ships built to put Marines ashore) carries more than 4,000 Marines and sailors. About 2,200 of them are in the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit (a Marine force of about 2,200 that lives on those ships and can land on short notice). A Pacific Fleet spokesperson called the San Diego departure "routine operations in the U.S. 3rd Fleet area of operations."

The carrier. The USS Theodore Roosevelt brings the rest of the roughly 9,000 people and is due in the region by the end of November, per the Financial Times.

The pay. Starting Thursday, Oct. 1, troops taking direct fire can draw up to $450 a month in hostile fire pay (extra pay for serving where they can be shot at), per The Washington Post. ([TS]two are there now, and Navy reporting has the Roosevelt relieving one of them, per USNI)

Still open. How long the extra ships stay. The Washington Post and Bloomberg report the U.S. may soon have three carriers in the region.

Catch upwhat happened before · 3 earlier issues
  • Aug. 31 — Military leaders warned Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth that a long Iran war would leave the U.S. exposed elsewhere; the Pentagon called the leak a crime.
  • Sept. 14–16 — The Pentagon put arms makers on a wartime footing; its watchdog put war costs at $33.4 billion through June 30 and equipment losses at $3.7 billion.
  • Sept. 29 — Three U.S. officials said an Iranian cruise missile hit a ship carrying eight Marines in the Strait of Hormuz on Sept. 14, never announced.
  • Sept. 30 — The last U.S. troops left Iraq, ending the 12-year anti-ISIS mission.
2 earlier issues
What the Roosevelt strike group brings besides the carrierCruiser USS Chosin, assigned as the group's air and missile defense commander3 details
  • Cruiser USS Chosin, assigned as the group's air and missile defense commander
  • Destroyers USS Paul Hamilton, USS Decatur and USS Carl M. Levin
  • Carrier Air Wing 11: an F-35C squadron, three Super Hornet squadrons and a Growler electronic-attack squadron
Ongoing29 earlier updates71 days

This story has run 30 times over 71 days, starting Jul 23.

  1. Trump Threatens to Bomb Iranian Bridges and Power Plants for Every Ship Hit in Strait of Hormuz
  2. Iran fires multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. base in Jordan; all are intercepted
  3. Iran denies Trump’s claim that new U.S. talks would start Monday
  4. Cargo ship is struck in the Strait of Hormuz
  5. Vance says the Iran talks are moving, then calls the war only half over
  6. Iran won't reopen Hormuz until the US unfreezes its assets and lifts the blockade
  7. Trump threatens to bomb Oman, the U.S. ally brokering the deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
  8. Trump declares an "economic D-Day" on Iran as Hormuz traffic runs 85% below normal
  9. UpdateU.S. goes nearly a month without large Iran strikes as Trump shifts back to sanctions; Hormuz remains closed
  10. U.S. destroys two Iranian rocket launchers loaded to mine the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at bases in Jordan, all intercepted
  11. UpdateU.S. bombs two Iranian rocket sites near the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at Jordan
  12. UpdateU.S. forces struck IRGC air-defense, radar, maritime and mine-laying sites on Iran's southern coast starting at noon on Sept. 1
  13. UpdateU.S. hits about 100 Iranian targets; Iran fires back at American bases in four countries, and a cruise missile kills 4 at a wedding
  14. Reuters weapons experts say a US munition made a direct hit on the Iranian wedding house that killed 5
  15. US destroys or disables 3 Iranian oil tankers after Iran fired ballistic missiles at a US carrier and destroyer
  16. UpdateIran says it hit an unmanned US vessel a day after the tanker strikes; Central Command calls the claim "a total lie"
  17. UpdateIran says it will declare a restricted zone near the Strait of Hormuz and will strike threats "even before" they are carried out
  18. Iran says it seized a US sea drone in Hormuz; CENTCOM says it malfunctioned a day earlier
  19. UpdateIran fires 20 missiles at a US base in Jordan; Jordan says it intercepted 18
  20. UpdateNavy plans to keep 2 carrier groups near Iran at least through 2026
  21. UpdateUnidentified projectile hits Iranian container ship off Hengam Island, killing 1 and wounding 4
  22. UpdateOil's chokepoint shifts to refineries and tankers as JPMorgan drops its baseline oil forecast
  23. UpdateTrump says he is choosing among wiping Iran out, letting it rot economically, or a deal, and would "probably" meet Pezeshkian at the UN this week
  24. UpdateIran offers to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. lifts its naval blockade as traffic falls to two ships
  25. Iran proposes seven-day ceasefire plan to reopen Strait of Hormuz and revive nuclear talks
  26. UpdateTrump rejects Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days in exchange for ending the U.S. blockade
  27. Trump expects more Iran talks this week after rejecting Iran's Hormuz offer; Iran won't soften its terms
  28. UpdateIran says its UN delegation has no talks planned with the US and will fly home Tuesday, Sept. 29; mediators keep working
  29. UpdateQatari compromise to end the U.S.-Iran war stalls; Trump denies aides' account that he offered Iran sanctions relief
  30. Rubio orders Iran's UN delegation out of New York; Trump says Iran will "sign a very fair deal, or they won't exist any longer" — this issue
AXIOSIran war

Rubio orders Iran's UN delegation out of New York; Trump says Iran will "sign a very fair deal, or they won't exist any longer"

Araghchi's team came for the UN General Assembly; a U.S. official said it had to go once the meeting ended.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio expelled Iran's negotiating team from New York after talks run through Qatar stalled. Trump then threatened Iran's existence while leaving a deal on the table.

The expulsion. On Rubio's orders, the U.S. mission to the UN told Iran's mission on Monday evening, Sept. 28, that Abbas Araghchi (Foreign Minister, Iran) and his delegation had to leave immediately. Araghchi had come to New York for the UN General Assembly. A U.S. official said they "had overstayed their welcome. The UN General Assembly was over, so it was time for them to go." They flew to Doha, Qatar, at 1:20 a.m. Tuesday, Sept. 29.

Trump's threat. "Maybe I will blow 'em up We will blow 'em up or make a deal. But the time is coming," Trump said. He said the U.S. has spent six months rebuilding its weapons stocks, in a war now more than seven months old. ([TS]his own Pentagon just asked Senate appropriators for more money to fix 'critical shortfalls,' per the BBC)

Still open. Qatari mediators are still working both sides on their compromise proposal. Trump has named no deadline.

Catch upwhat happened before · 29 earlier issues

On Sept. 18 the U.S. granted UN General Assembly visas, with travel limits, to Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian and Araghchi, while denying them to the Palestinian delegation for a second year. On Sept. 28 Araghchi said Iran was ready for renewed U.S. strikes and still open to diplomacy.

28 earlier issues
What six months of restocking has not yet replacedThe 39-day air campaign that ended in the April 8 ceasefire fired more than 1,000 of about 3,100 prewar Tomahawk cruise missiles,…3 details
  • The 39-day air campaign that ended in the April 8 ceasefire fired more than 1,000 of about 3,100 prewar Tomahawk cruise missiles, per CSIS.
  • Patriot interceptors: 1,060-1,430 fired of roughly 2,200-2,330 prewar; THAAD: 190-290 fired of 360-452, CSIS estimates.
  • CSIS projects no new THAAD deliveries to U.S. stocks before April 2027, and says Tomahawk, THAAD and Patriot need three or more years to reach prewar levels.

Red take

Iran gets nothing until it reopens the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf shipping lane it closed. Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, was right to send Abbas Araghchi, Iran's foreign minister, home once the General Assembly ended. Tehran wants the U.S. naval blockade lifted and its frozen assets released first; pay up front, and every regime learns that seizing a shipping lane is how you get paid.

Blue take

Trump should be backing Qatar's mediators, not calling a bigger bombing round after the Nov. 3 midterms "possible," because the arsenal is not there. CSIS, a Washington think tank, says the 39-day air campaign burned more than 1,000 of about 3,100 Tomahawk cruise missiles. It projects no new THAAD missile-defense interceptors before April 2027. Widen the war now, and U.S. forces meet Iran's answer with their defenses still thinned.

THE WALL STREET JOURNALIran war

Average 30-year mortgage rate rose 0.25 points to 7.28%, the biggest weekly jump since September 2022

It is the sixth straight weekly rise, and the rate was 5.98% in the week before the Iran war began in late February.

Freddie Mac's weekly survey (the government-chartered mortgage buyer's average of lender rates), released Thursday, Oct. 1, put the 30-year fixed at 7.28%, up from 7.03% a week earlier. It was the sixth straight weekly rise and the highest rate since Nov. 22, 2023, when it hit 7.29%. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.6%.

Mortgage applications fell 6% in the week ended Sept. 25, per the Mortgage Bankers Association. Adjustable-rate loans (a lower starting rate that resets later) rose to 10.3% of applications, the highest share since October 2025.

Still open. National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun says rates "can come down once oil prices retreat and with a credible plan to reduce the budget deficit."

What rates above 7% did to home sales and refinancingExisting-home sales: 4.09 million in 2023 and 4.06 million in 2024, the two lowest years since 1995 (NAR)3 details
  • Existing-home sales: 4.09 million in 2023 and 4.06 million in 2024, the two lowest years since 1995 (NAR)
  • Refinance loans for single-family homes fell 64% in 2023 (CFPB)
  • Refinance volume hit $62 billion in the second quarter of 2024, the lowest quarter since 1996 (Freddie Mac)

Two columns of one figure the story states at two times: 7.0% a week earlier, 7.3% now — up.

Chart

7.0% a week earlier, 7.3% now

7.0% a week earlier, 7.3% nowTwo columns of one figure the story states at two times: 7.0% a week earlier, 7.3% now — up.
The numbers
7.0% a week earlier, 7.3% now
PercentStated
a week earlier7.0%
now7.3%
Source: THE Wall Street Journal: Mortgage rates jump to 7.28%, the biggest weekly rise in four yearsPOLI
Ongoing11 earlier updates37 days

This story has run 12 times over 37 days, starting Aug 26.

  1. USPS violated a court order to finalize Trump’s mail-ballot rule; judge allows publication
  2. Judge clears Trump’s USPS mail-ballot rule; 24 states and D.C. sue hours later
  3. UpdateJudge blocks USPS from rejecting noncompliant mail ballots for 14 days; DOJ appeals
  4. UpdateMissouri asks the Supreme Court to reinstate its 7-1 congressional map three days before the ballot deadline
  5. Kavanaugh leaves Missouri's 6-2 map in place; hours later a federal judge orders the state to run the 7-1 map
  6. UpdateStates ask Supreme Court to keep new USPS ballot requirements blocked
  7. Update3-0 First Circuit keeps Trump mail-ballot rule blocked as 7 Republican officials oppose pre-November start
  8. UpdateSupreme Court leaves Trump's USPS mail-ballot rules blocked for Nov. 3 midterms in apparent 7-2 vote
  9. UpdateMail ballots will move under pre-2026 rules on Nov. 3 as the administration stands down
  10. UpdateSupreme Court lets states resume checking voter rolls against Trump's expanded federal citizenship database while the case is appealed
  11. Supreme Court votes 6-3 to let Trump deport migrants to third countries without notice or a chance to raise torture fears
  12. Supreme Court agrees to decide whether ICE can jail immigrants who entered illegally without a bond hearing — this issue
PBS NEWSHOURImmigration enforcement

Supreme Court agrees to decide whether ICE can jail immigrants who entered illegally without a bond hearing

Nine federal appeals courts and more than 500 district judges have rejected the policy, in force since July 2025; only the 5th and 8th Circuits have upheld it.

The Supreme Court agreed Thursday, Oct. 1 to decide whether people who entered the U.S. illegally, including those who have lived here for decades, can be held without a bond hearing (a chance to ask a judge for release) while their deportation cases run.

The test case. Ricardo Aparecido Barbosa da Cunha is a Brazilian with no criminal record who came to the U.S. around 2005. ICE arrested him in September 2025. His lawyer, Paul Dwyer, says he "has never missed an immigration appointment or hearing."

The government. Solicitor General D. John Sauer says the policy removes a "perverse incentive" that treats people who evade detention at entry more leniently.

What next. No argument date is set. A ruling is due by the end of June 2027.

Biggest ICE detention states, and whether their courts back no-bondTexas: 16,450 detainees in FY2026, under the 5th Circuit, which upheld the policy3 details
  • Texas: 16,450 detainees in FY2026, under the 5th Circuit, which upheld the policy
  • Louisiana: 7,680, also 5th Circuit
  • Georgia: 4,556, under the 11th Circuit, which rejected the policy

Quick bites18

Courts4 bites

  1. Judge rules Trump can't fire court-appointed Seattle U.S. attorney, reinstates Roger Rogoff

    NBC NEWS

    U.S. District Judge Stanley Bastian refused to pause his ruling reinstating Rogoff, whom Trump fired within an hour of his July 15 swearing-in, and DOJ says it will appeal and seek a stay.

    • All 17 Western District of Washington judges appointed Rogoff on July 15.
    • Trump fired Rogoff 54 minutes after his oath, per the Washington Examiner.
    • Bastian on the statute: "It does not say 'until the president fires the person selected.'"

  2. Federal judge rules the law criminalizing noncitizen voting unconstitutional

    REUTERSCourts and the adminis…

    U.S. District Judge David Leibowitz of the Southern District of Florida found 18 U.S.C. 611, the law that makes it a crime for noncitizens to vote, unconstitutional, Reuters and NBC News report. Reuters says the ruling applies only to the case of Florida resident Chelsea Cox and does not bind judges in other cases. The first reports do not say whether it will be appealed.

  3. Judge rejects 2 of 3 DOJ grounds for keeping the boat-strike legal memo secret

    THE HILL

    In a 66-page opinion in the ACLU's records lawsuit, U.S. District Judge Paul Engelmayer rejected the deliberative-process and attorney-client claims over the September 2025 memo authorizing lethal strikes on alleged drug boats.

    What the judge orderedDOJ must give more information on its third claim, presidential communications privilege, before any release.3 details
    • DOJ must give more information on its third claim, presidential communications privilege, before any release.
    • The judge set a 2-week deadline for his own first look at the memo (ABC News).
    • DOJ must account for everyone who has seen the memo; Engelmayer said its storage in a Pentagon SCIF "raises more questions than answers."

  4. Pentagon removes never-lived-in-U.S. option from overseas ballot form, drawing DNC suit

    THE GUARDIANUpdate

    The DNC says the Pentagon broke the law when it changed the Federal Post Card Application. Overseas citizens use that form to register and request absentee ballots. The old form had four location options. One was for citizens who never lived in the U.S.

    The Pentagon sent the change to the White House budget office (OMB) on Aug. 26, and OMB approved it on Aug. 28. A Wisconsin clerk memo dated the form update to Sept. 2. Democracy Docket reported the change on Sept. 9. The DNC filed its complaint on Oct. 1.

    The form changeOld form: 4 location options, one for citizens who have never lived in the U.S.2 details
    • Old form: 4 location options, one for citizens who have never lived in the U.S.
    • The Guardian says 38 states plus D.C. let citizens born abroad vote even if they never lived here
Trump on Iran2 bites

  1. Trump tells TIME he would consider pre-emptive pardons for aides

    TIMEIran war

    In a 75-minute interview on Sept. 28, Trump was asked about pardons for his officials. "Yeah, sure I'd do that," he said. He also admitted some munitions are "a little bit lower." TIME's fact-check found Iran's inflation is 83.8% per its central bank, not the 300% he claimed.

    Other lines from the interviewOn a Democratic House: "They'll probably go after me and I'll go after them" (NBC).3 details
    • On a Democratic House: "They'll probably go after me and I'll go after them" (NBC).
    • To staff mid-interview: "You haven't asked me one f---ing positive question" (The Hill).
    • On bombing Iran again after the midterms: "possible."

  2. Trump says FlyDubai co-pilot who tried to crash a Tel Aviv flight is likely tied to Iran

    CBS NEWSIran war

    Trump said the Omani co-pilot is linked to Iran, "based on what I'm hearing." The co-pilot is accused of stabbing his captain on a Dubai–Tel Aviv flight. Trump vowed Iran would be "hit very hard." Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the man was radicalized. He called an Iran link "too early to say."

    • The plane made an emergency landing in Tabuk, Saudi Arabia.
    • CBS News reports 174 people aboard; PBS NewsHour reports more than 180.
    • The co-pilot had flown for FlyDubai for 8 months, per Axios.
Public money, Trump's message2 bites

  1. House Democrats ask GAO and special counsel to investigate Trump's taxpayer-funded ads

    THE GUARDIANUpdateIran war

    Jamie Raskin (Rep-D Maryland) and George Whitesides (Rep-D California) want two watchdogs to probe a new government-paid ad celebrating the Iran war. The 1-minute spot aired on Fox News. They asked the Government Accountability Office and the Office of Special Counsel to investigate.

    On Sept. 20, Customs and Border Protection paid the full $20 million to LMD Agency, a Maryland ad firm, for Trump TV ads. A day earlier, the White House budget office had moved that border-security money into a "commemorative events" account. Trump then defended the ads: "I'm not running for office."

    • Patty Murray (Sen-D Washington) introduced a bill to cut the White House budget office's funding by $20 million for each "propaganda" violation.
    • A DHS official told NBC that senior Customs and Border Protection leaders were cut out of the decision to buy the ads.
    • Raskin and Whitesides: "stealing taxpayer dollars to pay for Mr Trump's narcissistic ego trips is plainly illegal."

  2. Treasury mails $500 ACA fee refund checks with a Trump letter to 950,000 HealthCare.gov enrollees

    CNN

    The administration says these enrollees in the 30 states using the federal exchange were overcharged in marketplace user fees, and most of them earn above 400% of the poverty line and get no subsidies.

    Who gets them and what the letter saysTexas has the most recipients at 139,000, followed by Florida at 127,900, per Fox News.2 details
    • Texas has the most recipients at 139,000, followed by Florida at 127,900, per Fox News.
    • Trump's letter reads: "That money belongs to hard-working Americans, not the Government, and now I'm returning it to you!"
Congress's unfinished business2 bites

  1. GOP senators ask for rationale behind Hegseth's 20% cut to generals; Democrats call it a purge

    PBS NEWSHOURUpdate

    Republican defense senators want Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's reasoning before they back his 20% cut to generals. That doubles the 10% cut he ordered in May 2025. "I certainly want to see his rationale in detail, and I don't have that yet," said Ted Budd (Sen-R North Carolina). Democrats call it a purge. Ro Khanna (Rep-D California) urged a vote on Thomas Massie's (Rep-R Kentucky) resolution to remove Hegseth.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 2 earlier issues
    • Sep. 3 — The Pentagon pulled decades of Defense Secretary orders off its classified SIPR network.
    • Sep. 30 — Hegseth announced a 20% cut in general and admiral posts by Jan. 1, 2027, up from the 10% cut he ordered in May 2025.
    • Oct. 1 — He confirmed the cut removes positions, not people, ordered a four-star drone command and called munitions reporting "treason."
    1 earlier issue
    What Democrats are reacting toHegseth at Quantico: "no fatties, no trannies, no beardos, no weirdos, no wimps, no radicals, just warriors."2 details
    • Hegseth at Quantico: "no fatties, no trannies, no beardos, no weirdos, no wimps, no radicals, just warriors."
    • Khanna called it an "illegal, immoral Holy war" after Hegseth announced a new Office of Religious Affairs.
    Ongoing2

    This story has run 3 times over 2 days, starting Sep 30.

    1. Hegseth will order the military to cut general and admiral positions 20% by Jan. 1, 2027
    2. UpdateHegseth confirms a 20% cut in general and admiral posts, orders a four-star drone command and calls munitions reporting “treason”
    3. UpdateGOP senators ask for rationale behind Hegseth's 20% cut to generals; Democrats call it a purge — this issue

  2. Congress left until after Nov. 3 midterms with funding, NDAA and FISA 702 unresolved

    WASHINGTON EXAMINER2026 midterms

    When they return, members face government funding that runs out Dec. 11, the defense bill, FISA Section 702 surveillance and a possible third reconciliation bill that Senate Majority Leader John Thune says may lack 50 votes.

    The lame-duck deadlinesNov. 20: the administration says FISA 702 surveillance could go fully dark (Washington Examiner).3 details
    • Nov. 20: the administration says FISA 702 surveillance could go fully dark (Washington Examiner).
    • Dec. 11: current government funding expires; last year's shutdown lasted 43 days by Fox's calendar-day count (CRS counts 42 full days).
    • $95 billion: the House-passed blueprint for a third reconciliation bill covering military, Iran war and farm relief costs.
Immigration enforcement2 bites

  1. Renee Good's family sues the U.S. over her killing by an ICE officer and accuses the officer, Miller, Noem and Homan of a civil-rights conspiracy

    PBS NEWSHOURImmigration enforcement

    Her partner and brother filed two suits in Minnesota federal court on Thursday, Oct. 1, one against the United States and one accusing 17 officials and agents of a civil-rights conspiracy.

    • ICE officer Jonathan Ross shot Good, a 37-year-old U.S. citizen, on Jan. 7 during Operation Metro Surge; the complaint says each of his three shots broke DHS's own use-of-force policy.
    • The conspiracy suit names Ross, Stephen Miller, Kristi Noem and Tom Homan among its defendants and rests on the Ku Klux Klan Act of 1871; neither suit names a dollar figure.
    • The White House said it will "vigorously defend" the claims; Homan said, "I wish Renee Good was alive today."

  2. ICE bans car chases and lets only specially trained officers make traffic stops

    WASHINGTON EXAMINERImmigration enforcement

    A memo issued Wednesday (Sept. 30) bars ICE officers from chasing vehicles that don't stop. It also bars PIT maneuvers, where an officer bumps a fleeing car to spin it out.

    The new limitsOnly government vehicles with lights and sirens may make stops (ABC News).3 details
    • Only government vehicles with lights and sirens may make stops (ABC News).
    • The limits apply to ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations officers (ABC News).
    • Only officers with specific agency training may make traffic stops.
Also tonight3 bites

  1. Christa Pike survives two pentobarbital doses; Tennessee cancels its last 2026 execution

    PBS NEWSHOURUpdate

    Bill Lee (Gov-R Tennessee) canceled the state's one remaining 2026 execution and ordered a third-party review. Pike is in the hospital in critical condition after at least seven needles and two doses.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 1 earlier issue

    Sep. 30 — A Sixth Circuit panel voted 2-1 to halt Pike's execution about an hour before it was set to begin. That evening, the Supreme Court lifted the stay. Its three liberal justices dissented.

    • Second failed Tennessee execution this year, after Tony Carruthers' in May.
    • Pike's lawyers are demanding commutation and say they warned her vein problems made this predictable.
    • Marsha Blackburn (Sen-R Tennessee), the GOP nominee for governor: "bring back the electric chair and deliver justice for these victims swiftly."
    Ongoing1

    This story has run 2 times, starting Oct 1.

    1. UpdateSupreme Court lifts appeals court's last-minute stay of Christa Pike's Tennessee execution, three liberals dissenting
    2. UpdateChrista Pike survives two pentobarbital doses; Tennessee cancels its last 2026 execution — this issue

  2. U.S. presses Germany and France to release emergency diesel stockpiles, threatening a U.S. export ban

    BLOOMBERGUpdate

    The administration is now pressing Germany and France to release emergency diesel stockpiles, holding a U.S. export ban over them. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Europe would announce new diesel supplies, while Trade Representative Jamieson Greer was more guarded.

    Trump said a diesel export ban was still on the table but showed less appetite for it.

    BackgroundWhy Europe would feel a ban2 facts
    • Europe's own refineries make only about 70% of the diesel it uses.
    • About one-third of the UK's diesel imports came from the U.S. last year.

  3. UK police arrest a sixth suspect, a 27-year-old UK-Iranian national, over Sept. 27's RAF Fairford incident

    THE HILLIran war

    The first five suspects are out on bail. They are British men in their 20s, arrested near the base on Sunday, Sept. 27. "I wouldn't have done," Trump said of the bail decision. Police found gasoline but no explosives in three linked vans.

    BackgroundWho says Iran is behind it3 facts
    • Prime Minister Andy Burnham cites "strong indications" of Iranian involvement; Iran denies it.
    • DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin said the U.S. "knew" Iran or its proxies would try to hit a U.S. asset in the UK.
    • Secretary of State Marco Rubio joined Trump in criticizing the bail for the first five suspects.
    Ongoing1

    This story has run 2 times over 2 days, starting Sep 30.

    1. UpdateUK police found petrol, not explosives, in three vans tied to five bailed Fairford suspects
    2. UK police arrest a sixth suspect, a 27-year-old UK-Iranian national, over Sept. 27's RAF Fairford incident — this issue
Elections3 bites

  1. AP-NORC poll: 26% approve of Trump on the economy, a new low; 17% on cost of living

    PBS NEWSHOUR2026 midterms

    65% of adults blame Trump's policies more than outside factors for high costs, and CNN finds about 8 in 10 Americans disapprove of his handling of inflation.

    Also in the pollGas worry: about half are highly concerned about affording gas, up from 39% in July2 details
    • Gas worry: about half are highly concerned about affording gas, up from 39% in July
    • Robert Gault, 66, a Republican retired factory worker: "He said, 'Make America Great Again.' And I have not seen him do that."

  2. Trump starts a 32-day midterm campaign tour in Texas and Oklahoma, with stops planned in at least 17 states

    CBS NEWS2026 midterms

    Trump said he is campaigning in GOP strongholds "just to make sure" and because "nobody's selling it," while the White House weighs adding an upstate New York stop before the Nov. 3 election.

    • Opening stops: Trump in Texas and Oklahoma
    • Planned reach: at least 17 states, per NBC News
    • Election day: Nov. 3

  3. Talarico leads Paxton 51-49 among likely voters in Fox's first Texas Senate poll

    FOX NEWSUpdate2026 midterms

    Democrat James Talarico (D-TX) leads Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton 51-49 among likely voters, within the margin of error. Among registered voters he leads by 7 points. The registered-voter sample is 1,203, with a margin of error of ±2.5 points.

    On Sept. 29, Talarico led Paxton 47-44 in the Texas Senate polling average.

    Inside the numbersPaxton's favorability is 40% favorable, 58% unfavorable, underwater by 18 points.3 details
    • Paxton's favorability is 40% favorable, 58% unfavorable, underwater by 18 points.
    • 20% of voters who backed John Cornyn (Sen-R Texas) in the primary now support Talarico.
    • Talarico leads Paxton 64-35 among Hispanic voters.

Elections22 races

The midterms · 32 days out · November 3, 2026

D or R take the House / Senate?

Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT

U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 93%, Kalshi 92%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 63%, Kalshi 63%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

U.S. House — Democrats take it, 91.55–92.50%
93%92%chance Democrats take it · 1.0pp apart · neither venue moved this week
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 93% and Kalshi 92%.
U.S. Senate — Democrats take it, 62.5%
63%63%chance Democrats take it · the same price on both · no clear move — one venue moved, the other did not
U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 63% and Kalshi 63%.

3 closest races

  • abNevada governorJoe Lombardo 51.5%▲0.2Aaron Ford 47.5%

    POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election

    Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).

    Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Republican side holds a narrow lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Nevada governor

    Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 50.5%, Kalshi 52.5%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 48.5%, Kalshi 46.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aaGeorgia governorRick Jackson 52.0%▲5.5Keisha Lance Bottoms 47.5%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election

    Rick Jackson (R) faces Keisha Lance Bottoms (D).

    Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a narrow lead after the Democratic side lost about six points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia governor

    Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia governor. Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 52.5%, Kalshi 51.5%; Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 46.5%, Kalshi 48.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • wIowa SenateAshley Hinson 58.0%▲0.5Josh Turek 42.0%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election

    Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).

    An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa Senate

    Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 58.5%, Kalshi 57.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 41.5%, Kalshi 42.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

The other 19 races22 races · 12 still in doubt · Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT · markets, not polling

Senate9 of 10

  • vAlaska SenateMary Peltola 71.0%▲1.4Sullivan 29.3%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election

    Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).

    A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska Senate

    Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 72.5%, Kalshi 69.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 28.5%, Kalshi 30.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • adGeorgia SenateJon Ossoff 96.65%▲1.8Collins 3.53%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election

    Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia Senate

    Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.2pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 97.25%, Kalshi 96.05%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 2.90%, Kalshi 4.15%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.2pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • tMaine SenateTroy Jackson 58.0%▲6.8Susan Collins 41.5%

    POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election

    Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).

    Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead, but no race here has moved more this week: the Republican side is up about seven points.

    Two markets, one question

    Maine Senate

    Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 57.5%, Kalshi 58.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 41.5%, Kalshi 41.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • xMichigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed 72.0%Mike Rogers 28.5%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election

    Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan Senate

    Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 71.5%, Kalshi 72.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 28%, Kalshi 29%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aeNebraska SenatePete Ricketts 73.0%▲2.5Dan Osborn 26.5%

    POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election

    Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead after Osborn lost about three points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Nebraska Senate

    Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 73.5%, Kalshi 72.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 25.5%, Kalshi 27.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • afNew Hampshire SenateChris Pappas 86.5%▲0.913.3%Sununu

    POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election

    Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    New Hampshire Senate

    Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 86.5%, Kalshi 86.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 13.5%, Kalshi 13.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • acNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 94.83%▲0.9Whatley 5.28%

    POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election

    Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    North Carolina Senate

    Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.6pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 95.50%, Kalshi 94.15%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 4.50%, Kalshi 6.05%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.6pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • yOhio SenateSherrod Brown 59.5%▲1.2Jon Husted 40.5%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election

    Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).

    A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio Senate

    Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 58.5%, Kalshi 60.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 41.5%, Kalshi 39.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • uTexas SenateJames Talarico 62.5%▲3.3Ken Paxton 37.5%

    POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election

    James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side lost about four points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas Senate

    Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 61.5%, Kalshi 63.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 38.5%, Kalshi 36.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Governors10 of 12

  • ahAlaska governor17.50%81.6%WilsonBegich 0.93%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election

    Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).

    Wilson holds a clear lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska governor

    Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 18%, Kalshi 17%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 1.05%, Kalshi 0.80%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • ajArizona governorKatie Hobbs 88.5%11.0%Biggs

    POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election

    Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Arizona governor

    Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 88.5%, Kalshi 88.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 10.5%, Kalshi 11.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • anFlorida governorByron Donalds 78.0%▲0.722.5%Jolly

    POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election

    Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).

    Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Florida governor

    Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 78.5%, Kalshi 77.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 21.5%, Kalshi 23.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • agIowa governorRob Sand 84.5%▲1.2Lahn 15.0%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election

    Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa governor

    Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 84.5%, Kalshi 84.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 14.5%, Kalshi 15.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aiMichigan governorJocelyn Benson 91.83%James 8.20%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election

    Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan governor

    Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.6pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 91.50%, Kalshi 92.15%; John James (R): Polymarket 8.5%, Kalshi 7.9%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.6pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • alNew York governorKathy Hochul 95.1%▲0.2Blakeman 4.9%

    POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election

    Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    New York governor

    Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.8pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 95.5%, Kalshi 94.7%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 4.5%, Kalshi 5.3%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.8pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • sOhio governorAmy Acton 61.0%▲0.8Vivek Ramaswamy 37.5%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election

    Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).

    Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio governor

    Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 61.5%, Kalshi 60.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 36.5%, Kalshi 38.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • amPennsylvania governorJosh Shapiro 97.15%Garrity 2.90%

    POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election

    Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Pennsylvania governor

    Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.6pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 96.95%, Kalshi 97.35%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.6%, Kalshi 3.2%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.6pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • akTexas governorGreg Abbott 81.58%▲4.518.50%Hinojosa

    POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election

    Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead after the Democratic side lost about five points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas governor

    Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.1pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 82.65%, Kalshi 80.50%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 17.5%, Kalshi 19.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.1pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • zWisconsin governorDavid Crowley 80.8%18.5%Tiffany

    POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election

    David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).

    An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Wisconsin governor

    Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 82.5%, Kalshi 79.0%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 17.5%, Kalshi 19.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Oct 1, 8:56 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.

15 stories that didn't make the cutSeen by the desk, ranked, and not run. The number is where each stood in the day's order.
  • 45[UPDATE] 10-year Treasury yield briefly neared 5.34% Thursday, Oct. 1, its highest since 2002, after a hot factory-prices reportTreasury yields climbed again, with the 10-year briefly nearing 5.34% after a hot manufacturing-prices report before easing back.
  • 46US ran $2 trillion deficit in FY2026; interest hit record $1.1 trillion, CRFB estimatesThe Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates the deficit for the fiscal year that ended Sept.
  • 47Medicare weakens final drug pricing model, leaving drugmakers unscathedMedicare weakens final drug pricing model, leaving drugmakers unscathed
  • 48Bipartisan Senate permitting reform deal and its road through the HouseBipartisan Senate permitting reform deal and its road through the House
  • 49Trump officials abandon efforts to investigate election threatsTrump officials abandon efforts to investigate election threats
  • 50Treasury sanctions Russia-linked A7 network for helping IranTreasury sanctions Russia-linked A7 network for helping Iran
  • 51Pentagon raises combat pay for the first time in 20 years amid the Iran warPentagon raises combat pay for the first time in 20 years amid the Iran war
  • 52Dallas Fed's Logan calls for more rate hikesDallas Fed's Logan calls for more rate hikes
  • 53Fed Vice Chair Jefferson signals a hold on rates in OctoberFed Vice Chair Jefferson signals a hold on rates in October
  • 54Trump meme coin firm plans another gala with top holdersTrump meme coin firm plans another gala with top holders
  • 55Judge permanently dismisses Reflecting Pool vandalism case against ex-Olympian David HearnJudge permanently dismisses Reflecting Pool vandalism case against ex-Olympian David Hearn
  • 56Trump proposal would require taxpayers to disclose citizenship status to the IRSTrump proposal would require taxpayers to disclose citizenship status to the IRS
  • 57States and cities sue over EPA repeal of power plant emissions rulesStates and cities sue over EPA repeal of power plant emissions rules
  • 58ICE deletes reports flagging medical neglect in detention deathsICE deletes reports flagging medical neglect in detention deaths
  • 59Trump administration rolls out the federal school choice tax creditTrump administration rolls out the federal school choice tax credit