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Ongoing2 earlier updates22 days
This story has run 3 times over 22 days, starting Sep 16.
- Pentagon inspector general puts U.S. equipment losses from Iranian strikes at $3.7 billion
- UK police arrest five men suspected of preparing a terrorist act near base used for U.S. strikes on Iran
- Pentagon tells Central Command to ready new Iran strike options the White House wants usable before the Nov. 3 midterms — this issue
Trump has not decided and no date is set; if major combat resumes, targets would include Iran's energy, infrastructure and nuclear sites.
The Pentagon has told U.S. Central Command (the military headquarters that runs U.S. operations across the Middle East) to finish preparing options for resuming major combat against Iran, U.S. officials told Axios. The White House asked for options that could be used before the Nov. 3 midterms. No launch date is set, and Trump has not made a final decision.
The meeting. Trump's national security team met for several hours at Camp David on Friday, Oct. 2. An Israeli official said part of that meeting covered resuming combat.
The political case. Supporters inside the administration admit limited strikes would not lower gas prices before Election Day. They argue the strikes would let Trump claim a win.
“It would make the president look like he got a win and that gas prices would start going down.” ([TS]The Atlantic's own reporting: crude has usually gone up, not down, when strikes resumed after a pause.)A Republican familiar with the deliberations, to The Atlantic
Still open. The size and targets are still being debated. A second Israeli official told Axios the chances before the election are “not high but we don't rule it out,” and that “after the midterms the chances of it happening increase significantly.”
Why limited strikes would not reopen Gulf oil before Election Day
- Strait of Hormuz oil flow, first half of 2025: 20.9 million barrels a day (EIA)
- Share of world petroleum use that passed through it: about one-fifth (EIA)
- Saudi and UAE pipelines that can bypass the strait: about 4.7 million barrels a day (EIA)
Ongoing10 earlier updates27 days
This story has run 11 times over 27 days, starting Sep 11.
- August inflation holds at 3.4% annually; gasoline drives monthly increase
- Consumer prices rose 0.4% in August and 3.4% over the year, lifting September Fed rate hike odds above 80%
- Trump threatens trade cutoff with some nations unless Fed lowers rates despite 3.4% inflation
- Update10-year Treasury yield hit 5.014% Monday, Sept. 14, first time since October 2023
- Federal Reserve is expected to raise its benchmark rate a quarter point on Wednesday, Sept. 16, its first hike in three years.
- UpdateFed raises its benchmark rate a quarter point to 3.75%-4%, its first increase since July 2023
- UpdateChicago Fed's Goolsbee says getting inflation to 2% will be 'painful' and require pushing employment below target
- Fed Governor Michael Barr says more rate increases are likely to counter inflation
- UpdateAugust PCE inflation was 3.4%, below the 3.7% forecast, cutting October Fed hike odds to 35% from 45%
- Markets pull back bets on October Fed and ECB rate hikes after weak US jobs data
- UpdateFed minutes show most officials expect another rate hike by year end — this issue
Most officials judged at least one more increase likely this year, but futures traders bet the Fed holds at its October meeting and waits until December.
The minutes. The Federal Reserve released minutes on Wednesday, Oct. 7, from its Sept. 15-16 meeting. They show most officials judged that another increase in the federal funds rate (the overnight bank borrowing rate that steers loan costs) would likely be appropriate by year end.
The September hike. At that meeting the Fed raised its target a quarter point to 3.75%-4%. It was the first hike in about three years, and every official backed it.
“In my base case, further policy adjustments are likely to be needed to ensure inflation comes down to target in a timely fashion.”Fed Governor Michael Barr
The other camp. Others are slower to commit. Since the meeting, Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and New York Fed President John Williams have signaled they want more data first.
What next. The Fed meets again in late October. Futures traders give an October hold about 80.6% odds, per The Hill, and expect a hike in December.
Catch up
- Sept. 11 — August consumer prices rose 3.4% from a year earlier, with gasoline driving the monthly increase.
- Sept. 14 — Trump threatened to cut off trade with some nations unless the Fed lowered rates. The 10-year Treasury yield topped 5% for the first time since October 2023.
- Sept. 16 — The Fed raised rates a quarter point to 3.75%-4%, its first hike since July 2023. Trump demanded rates of "1%, or less."
- Sept. 22-24 — Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said reaching 2% inflation would be "painful." Governor Michael Barr said more hikes were likely.
- Oct. 1 — August PCE inflation came in at 3.4%, below the 3.7% forecast, cutting October hike odds to 35%.
- Oct. 4 — Weak U.S. jobs data pulled back market bets on an October Fed hike.
9 earlier issues
- August inflation holds at 3.4% annually; gasoline drives monthly increase
- Consumer prices rose 0.4% in August and 3.4% over the year, lifting September Fed rate hike odds above 80%
- Trump threatens trade cutoff with some nations unless Fed lowers rates despite 3.4% inflation
- Update10-year Treasury yield hit 5.014% Monday, Sept. 14, first time since October 2023
- Federal Reserve is expected to raise its benchmark rate a quarter point on Wednesday, Sept. 16, its first hike in three years.
- UpdateFed raises its benchmark rate a quarter point to 3.75%-4%, its first increase since July 2023
- UpdateChicago Fed's Goolsbee says getting inflation to 2% will be 'painful' and require pushing employment below target
- Fed Governor Michael Barr says more rate increases are likely to counter inflation
- UpdateAugust PCE inflation was 3.4%, below the 3.7% forecast, cutting October Fed hike odds to 35% from 45%
Russia says none of 200 screened contacts had plague and is easing precautions; the WHO is still pressing Moscow for the cause.
Russia says it is open to scheduling a call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin "promptly" about the death of lab worker Darya Shipilova, 28, on Friday, Oct. 2, but none has been set. Trump said U.S. officials do not think the death is linked to a bioweapon. The U.S. has sent Moscow a démarche (a formal diplomatic demand for information).
Russia's tests. Russia screened 200 of her contacts for plague and found none. About 5,000 lab tests on contacts found no dangerous pathogens, and 90% of quarantined contacts have been released. The official cause is still pneumonia of unknown origin. Dmitry Peskov (Kremlin spokesman, Russia) said "the vast majority of what the media are reporting about this situation is false information."
The WHO. It wants the cause, the pathogen that set off Russia's precautions, and clarity on reports that a second employee has pneumonia.
What next. The WHO is waiting for Russia to hand over the medical evidence through its formal verification process under the International Health Regulations (the treaty rules for reporting outbreaks).
How we got here
- Oct. 2 — Darya Shipilova, 28, a worker at Siberia's Irkutsk Anti-Plague Institute, more than 2,500 miles from Moscow, died; Russia listed pneumonia of undetermined origin.
- By Oct. 6 — U.S. officials were monitoring it as a suspected pneumonic plague death and Trump offered help; Russia quarantined a hospital and watched nearly 200 contacts.
- By Oct. 7 — Trump said he would call Putin; Russia said tests had not linked the death to plague, and the State Department reissued its Level 4 do-not-travel warning.
Spots marked "Paid for by the U.S. Government" kept airing after Trump said on Monday, Oct. 5, that his super PAC would pay for them.
The Democratic National Committee sued the Trump administration in federal court in Washington on Wednesday, Oct. 7, over taxpayer-funded TV ads that promote Trump.
The claim. The suit says the White House budget office (OMB) moved $20 million of Customs and Border Protection money to pay for the ads, vs. the more than $12 million in taxpayer-paid airtime that ad tracker AdImpact has counted so far. It cites the law barring agencies from spending on "publicity or propaganda," the Anti-Deficiency Act (no spending money Congress did not provide) and the Purpose Statute (money only for the purpose Congress set). Fox reports the money went into a CBP "Commemorative Events" line that congressional reports limit to memorials, anniversaries and ceremonies.
The ask. The DNC wants a judge to declare the spending unlawful and block any more taxpayer-funded spots. Ads paid for privately are not covered.
The tab. Ad tracker AdImpact puts taxpayer-paid airtime above $12 million so far; Politico's Tuesday (Oct. 6) count was $11.6 million.
Still open. NBC reports the government's existing ad buy ends this week, and the White House declined to say when Trump's money actually takes over.
Government-paid ads promoting Trump began running on local TV in late September; on Monday, Oct. 5, Trump said his super PAC would pay for them going forward. The White House then said taxpayers would not be repaid the roughly $11 million spent since late September, against the $20 million the DNC suit says OMB moved for the ads. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said he would file an FEC complaint, though only 2 of the commission's 6 seats are filled.
How widely the taxpayer-paid ads aired, and what voters think
- 2,311+ local TV airings of the ads in four days in late September (Axios)
- 9% of Americans call taxpayer-paid election ads featuring the president appropriate (Reuters/Ipsos, via Axios)
On Wednesday, Oct. 7, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, with Guilfoyle seated in front of him in Athens, called her "a strong ambassador."
Kimberly Guilfoyle, now U.S. ambassador to Greece, asked a Trump donor for $100,000 while preparing for her Senate confirmation hearing (the public questioning senators hold before voting on a nominee), according to messages the Wall Street Journal reviewed.
“It won't show up anywhere if you wire money to American Express. Please.”Kimberly Guilfoyle, on Signal (an encrypted messaging app), per the Journal
The donor. The donor wrote that he had already paid her $300,000 over the years and “I need results.” She answered: “Stop papering all these things. It's really dangerous. Just call me on Signal.”
The access. The same messages show her offering him access to top administration officials.
Still open. The published excerpts do not show whether the requested money was sent, or what the donor's earlier payments bought.
Prosecutors say he picked the mall's Hmong Arts Celebration on Saturday, Oct. 24, and said he meant to kill 30 to 60 people.
The sting. Sheikhdoon Abdullahi Mohamud, 18, of Richfield, Minnesota, was arrested in a park on Tuesday, Oct. 6, after paying an undercover FBI employee posing as an ISIS member $600 for an AK-47 and 200 rounds. The rifle had been made inoperable; the ammunition was live, per Fox News. An FBI informant had been messaging him since December 2024, about 22 months before the arrest.
The charge. He is charged with receiving a firearm and ammunition knowing they would be used in a federal crime of terrorism.
The alleged plan. Prosecutors say he told contacts he meant to kill 30 to 60 people. Asked if he was serious, he allegedly replied: "yes i am 100% sure ... I would have backed out by now if I wasn't sure."
Quick bites15
Prosecutors expected to charge Maduro and wife with authorizing torture of Americans in Venezuelan prisons
CBS NEWSThe charges would cover more than a dozen wrongfully detained Americans and add to four counts, including narco-terrorism and weapons charges, that Maduro already faces, per CBS News.
Where the case stands
- Hearing: Flores's bond hearing is before Judge Alvin Hellerstein in Manhattan
- Trial: tentatively set for June 2027
- Defense: Maduro attorney Barry Pollack says he has had no notice of new charges; the couple seek dismissal on sovereign-immunity grounds
Judge orders Tennessee to preserve all evidence from Christa Pike's failed execution
ABC NEWSUpdateCourts and the adminis…Nashville Chancellor I'Ashea Myles ordered Tennessee to keep all evidence from Pike's failed Sept. 30 execution: the drugs, syringes, IV lines, recordings and communications. The state must also try to recover anything already gone, as her lawyers say she has pneumonia and a blood clot, and cannot swallow or move her arms.
Catch up
- Sept. 30 — A 2-1 6th Circuit panel halted Christa Pike's execution an hour before it began; the Supreme Court lifted the stay over three liberal dissents.
- Sept. 30 — Pike, 50, survived two lethal pentobarbital doses after about an hour of IV attempts; Tennessee called off its last execution of 2026.
- Oct. 3 — Pike lay unconscious on a ventilator; her lawyers moved to preserve evidence, and Republican lawmakers sought a review of the single-drug method.
- Oct. 4 — Corrections chief Frank Strada said he would step down, insisting protocol was followed; a former U.S. attorney will run an independent review.
- Oct. 5 — Pike's lawyer asked Tennessee's governor to commute her death sentence to life.
- Oct. 7 — Pike woke and began speaking; her lawyers renewed the commutation plea ahead of a court hearing.
5 earlier issues
- UpdateSupreme Court lifts appeals court's last-minute stay of Christa Pike's Tennessee execution, three liberals dissenting
- UpdateChrista Pike survives two pentobarbital doses; Tennessee cancels its last 2026 execution
- UpdateChrista Pike unconscious on a ventilator after failed Tennessee execution; lawyers move to preserve evidence
- UpdateTennessee corrections chief Frank Strada will step down after the failed Christa Pike execution
- UpdateChrista Pike's lawyer asks Tennessee's governor to commute her death sentence to life
Pike's condition and what's next
- Pike, 50, is still restrained at her hands and feet in her hospital bed.
- Her lawyers say they were told on Monday, Oct. 5, that she was brain-dead; her first words were "Where am I and who are you?"
- Can Tennessee try again? The state says any new execution date is up to the Tennessee Supreme Court.
Ongoing6
This story has run 7 times over 7 days, starting Oct 1.
- UpdateSupreme Court lifts appeals court's last-minute stay of Christa Pike's Tennessee execution, three liberals dissenting
- UpdateChrista Pike survives two pentobarbital doses; Tennessee cancels its last 2026 execution
- UpdateChrista Pike unconscious on a ventilator after failed Tennessee execution; lawyers move to preserve evidence
- UpdateTennessee corrections chief Frank Strada will step down after the failed Christa Pike execution
- UpdateChrista Pike's lawyer asks Tennessee's governor to commute her death sentence to life
- UpdateChrista Pike is conscious and speaking a week after Tennessee's failed execution
- UpdateJudge orders Tennessee to preserve all evidence from Christa Pike's failed execution — this issue
NAACP sues DOJ for records on its plan to send 1,000 election monitors to polls
THE GUARDIAN2026 midtermsThe NAACP sued DOJ civil rights chief Harmeet Dhillon over its unanswered Sept. 1 records request. AG Todd Blanche says monitors in all 50 states are standard practice; NAACP counsel Kristen Clarke says no federal law lets DOJ send them to polling sites.
- Dhillon has said she hopes to deploy 1,000 monitors in November.
- The NAACP filed its records request on Sept. 1, 2026, and says DOJ never answered it.
Texas set first U.S. execution since Christa Pike survived hers; lawyers say its pentobarbital is past its use date
NBC NEWSHoward's lawyers asked for a stay of his execution. They argue Texas's pentobarbital may be degraded. Tennessee used the same drug when it failed to execute Pike. The lawyers say Texas's drugs are also degraded because they are far past their original beyond-use dates.
- Howard was convicted of killing convenience store clerk Vickie Swartout, 42, in Silsbee, Texas, in 2000.
- He also argues he is intellectually disabled, with an appeal pending at the Supreme Court.
- If carried out, it would be the 30th U.S. execution this year; Texas has already carried out 6.
Trump says he'll fire advisers LaCivita and Blair if their Bosnian Serb consulting is a conflict
THE GUARDIAN2026 midtermsThe New York Times reported that each man was paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to advise Bosnia's pro-Russia Republika Srpska government around its weekend elections.
Who they are and who objected
- Blair is on leave as White House deputy chief of staff while he works for MAGA Inc. on the midterms.
- Trump on Truth Social: "if there's a conflict, I will terminate them, immediately!"
- Thom Tillis (Sen-R North Carolina) criticized the pair; Steve Bannon called them "grifters" and asked for "a forensic audit of where the money went."
Defense firms backed by Trump's sons have won over $6 billion in federal contracts since they invested
ABC NEWSUpdateAnduril has won 135 government contracts, worth about $1.8 billion, since 1789 Capital, the venture firm where Donald Trump Jr. is a partner, invested in June 2025. The government's 40% stake is in Arsenal-2, a new shipyard subsidiary, not in Anduril. Its terms have not been disclosed.
On Oct. 7, Trump announced a $6.6 billion Anduril shipyard in Baltimore. It will build parts for Virginia-class submarines. Trump claimed a 40% taxpayer stake but did not say what it meant. The yard is meant to add Virginia-class production capacity. The first parts are not due until 2030.
Who pays for the $6.6B shipyard
- Navy share: $2.9 billion
- Anduril's own investment: $3.7 billion
CRS: 81 U.S. aircraft and drones lost or damaged in Iran war, up from 42 in May
THE HILLUpdateIran warOf the 81, 45 are MQ-9 Reaper drones; CRS says newly public information explains part of the jump, and it warns that losing aging, high-demand planes could leave gaps in other regions.
Catch up
- Feb. 28 — The U.S.-Iran war began.
- Sep. 8–10 — U.S. strikes hit five Iranian oil tankers and sank one; Iran fired 20 missiles at a U.S. base in Jordan, which says it intercepted 18.
- Sep. 11 — The Navy planned to keep two carrier groups near Iran through at least 2026.
- Sep. 25–27 — Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the U.S. ended its blockade; Trump rejected the offer.
- Sep. 30 — A Qatari compromise stalled; U.S. officials said major combat could resume after the Nov. 3 midterms.
- Oct. 2 — Secretary of State Marco Rubio ordered Iran's UN delegation out of New York; Trump said Iran will "sign a very fair deal, or they won't exist any longer."
29 earlier issues
- Trump Threatens to Bomb Iranian Bridges and Power Plants for Every Ship Hit in Strait of Hormuz
- Iran fires multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. base in Jordan; all are intercepted
- Iran denies Trump’s claim that new U.S. talks would start Monday
- Cargo ship is struck in the Strait of Hormuz
- Vance says the Iran talks are moving, then calls the war only half over
- Iran won't reopen Hormuz until the US unfreezes its assets and lifts the blockade
- Trump threatens to bomb Oman, the U.S. ally brokering the deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
- Trump declares an "economic D-Day" on Iran as Hormuz traffic runs 85% below normal
- UpdateU.S. goes nearly a month without large Iran strikes as Trump shifts back to sanctions; Hormuz remains closed
- U.S. destroys two Iranian rocket launchers loaded to mine the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at bases in Jordan, all intercepted
- UpdateU.S. bombs two Iranian rocket sites near the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at Jordan
- UpdateU.S. forces struck IRGC air-defense, radar, maritime and mine-laying sites on Iran's southern coast starting at noon on Sept. 1
- UpdateU.S. hits about 100 Iranian targets; Iran fires back at American bases in four countries, and a cruise missile kills 4 at a wedding
- Reuters weapons experts say a US munition made a direct hit on the Iranian wedding house that killed 5
- US destroys or disables 3 Iranian oil tankers after Iran fired ballistic missiles at a US carrier and destroyer
- UpdateIran says it hit an unmanned US vessel a day after the tanker strikes; Central Command calls the claim "a total lie"
- UpdateIran says it will declare a restricted zone near the Strait of Hormuz and will strike threats "even before" they are carried out
- Iran says it seized a US sea drone in Hormuz; CENTCOM says it malfunctioned a day earlier
- UpdateIran fires 20 missiles at a US base in Jordan; Jordan says it intercepted 18
- UpdateNavy plans to keep 2 carrier groups near Iran at least through 2026
- UpdateUnidentified projectile hits Iranian container ship off Hengam Island, killing 1 and wounding 4
- UpdateOil's chokepoint shifts to refineries and tankers as JPMorgan drops its baseline oil forecast
- UpdateTrump says he is choosing among wiping Iran out, letting it rot economically, or a deal, and would "probably" meet Pezeshkian at the UN this week
- UpdateIran offers to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. lifts its naval blockade as traffic falls to two ships
- Iran proposes seven-day ceasefire plan to reopen Strait of Hormuz and revive nuclear talks
- UpdateTrump rejects Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days in exchange for ending the U.S. blockade
- Trump expects more Iran talks this week after rejecting Iran's Hormuz offer; Iran won't soften its terms
- UpdateIran says its UN delegation has no talks planned with the US and will fly home Tuesday, Sept. 29; mediators keep working
- UpdateQatari compromise to end the U.S.-Iran war stalls; Trump denies aides' account that he offered Iran sanctions relief
What else is in the count
- F-15E Strike Eagles: 12 lost or damaged (per Fox News)
- KC-135 tankers: 7 lost or damaged (per Fox News)
- The Pentagon says it does not comment on outside battle damage assessments.
Ongoing30
This story has run 31 times over 77 days, starting Jul 23.
- Trump Threatens to Bomb Iranian Bridges and Power Plants for Every Ship Hit in Strait of Hormuz
- Iran fires multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. base in Jordan; all are intercepted
- Iran denies Trump’s claim that new U.S. talks would start Monday
- Cargo ship is struck in the Strait of Hormuz
- Vance says the Iran talks are moving, then calls the war only half over
- Iran won't reopen Hormuz until the US unfreezes its assets and lifts the blockade
- Trump threatens to bomb Oman, the U.S. ally brokering the deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
- Trump declares an "economic D-Day" on Iran as Hormuz traffic runs 85% below normal
- UpdateU.S. goes nearly a month without large Iran strikes as Trump shifts back to sanctions; Hormuz remains closed
- U.S. destroys two Iranian rocket launchers loaded to mine the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at bases in Jordan, all intercepted
- UpdateU.S. bombs two Iranian rocket sites near the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at Jordan
- UpdateU.S. forces struck IRGC air-defense, radar, maritime and mine-laying sites on Iran's southern coast starting at noon on Sept. 1
- UpdateU.S. hits about 100 Iranian targets; Iran fires back at American bases in four countries, and a cruise missile kills 4 at a wedding
- Reuters weapons experts say a US munition made a direct hit on the Iranian wedding house that killed 5
- US destroys or disables 3 Iranian oil tankers after Iran fired ballistic missiles at a US carrier and destroyer
- UpdateIran says it hit an unmanned US vessel a day after the tanker strikes; Central Command calls the claim "a total lie"
- UpdateIran says it will declare a restricted zone near the Strait of Hormuz and will strike threats "even before" they are carried out
- Iran says it seized a US sea drone in Hormuz; CENTCOM says it malfunctioned a day earlier
- UpdateIran fires 20 missiles at a US base in Jordan; Jordan says it intercepted 18
- UpdateNavy plans to keep 2 carrier groups near Iran at least through 2026
- UpdateUnidentified projectile hits Iranian container ship off Hengam Island, killing 1 and wounding 4
- UpdateOil's chokepoint shifts to refineries and tankers as JPMorgan drops its baseline oil forecast
- UpdateTrump says he is choosing among wiping Iran out, letting it rot economically, or a deal, and would "probably" meet Pezeshkian at the UN this week
- UpdateIran offers to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. lifts its naval blockade as traffic falls to two ships
- Iran proposes seven-day ceasefire plan to reopen Strait of Hormuz and revive nuclear talks
- UpdateTrump rejects Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days in exchange for ending the U.S. blockade
- Trump expects more Iran talks this week after rejecting Iran's Hormuz offer; Iran won't soften its terms
- UpdateIran says its UN delegation has no talks planned with the US and will fly home Tuesday, Sept. 29; mediators keep working
- UpdateQatari compromise to end the U.S.-Iran war stalls; Trump denies aides' account that he offered Iran sanctions relief
- Rubio orders Iran's UN delegation out of New York; Trump says Iran will "sign a very fair deal, or they won't exist any longer"
- UpdateCRS: 81 U.S. aircraft and drones lost or damaged in Iran war, up from 42 in May — this issue
CBS video shows Iranian strikes on US base in Kuwait as defenders ran low on ammo
CBS NEWSIran warService members at Camp Buehring, 25 miles from the Iraqi border, say Iranian F-5 jets joined the attacks and soldiers ran critically low on.50-caliber rounds. The base held about 7,000 troops before the war, most of them moved elsewhere; CENTCOM declined to comment.
- The footage dates from early in the war; CBS says it authenticated it, and no other outlet has independently confirmed the details.
Newsom demands 25th Amendment after Trump says of Iran, 'let them take out Los Angeles'
TIMEIran warNewsom called Trump's Iran remarks "dangerous, if not treasonous." Trump made the remarks at a rally in Nebraska on Monday, Oct. 5. Newsom was reacting to a widely shared version of them. In it, Trump calls an Iranian strike on Los Angeles and San Diego a small price to pay. CNN's Daniel Dale said that version "isn't a direct quote." He said it is also not "a correct paraphrase."
California's response
- Newsom put California's threat-assessment center on alert to monitor for threats.
- Newsom cited more than 130,000 active-duty military personnel stationed in San Diego, one of the two cities named in the circulating version.
- San Diego Mayor Todd Gloria: "No American city should ever be described as expendable or an acceptable price to pay."
DHS proposes $70,000 fee for each international student post-graduation work permit, plus $30,000 per extension
PBS NEWSHOURDHS calls the Optional Practical Training program a "pipeline for cheap foreign labor" and cites fraud, and the public has 60 days to comment before the rule can be finalized.
Who pays, and how much
- Who pays is disputed: PBS NewsHour reports schools would pay, while Fox News reports the F-1 students themselves would.
- The Washington Post reports a university could face up to $100,000 in fees per student.
- Doug Rand, an immigration policy analyst, argues DHS "has no authority to slap a $70k fee on international students"; legal challenges are expected.
ICE bought 6,000 pairs of shock gloves for $16.7M after an Army study found they caused intense pain and fear
PBS NEWSHOURImmigration enforcementThe unreleased study, from an October 2024 exercise at Fort Leavenworth, found the gloves caused intense pain, instant compliance and lasting fear of being shocked again, while ICE calls them de-escalation devices.
On the record
- Army study: participants said "just seeing the GLOVE was enough to make them want to comply." (NBC News)
- American Oversight's Chioma Chukwu: the assessment "does not establish that they are safe."
ICE unit searched tens of millions of records for noncitizen voters and considered using undercover agents
STATELINEImmigration enforcementA June 1 report shows HSI reviewed 82 voter-registration groups in Pennsylvania alone and also scrutinized groups in Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey and Ohio.
What the records show
- June 1 HSI report: "The objective is to determine potential opportunities to leverage UC (undercover) resources, including the possible deployment of undercover agents."
- In late September, Attorney General Blanche indicted 10 noncitizens for unlawful voting.
- Studies consistently find that noncitizen voting is rare.
Trump sends one-time $90 Medicare premium rebates to 20.8 million, under a third of enrollees
PBS NEWSHOURThe payout skips everyone in Medicare Advantage. It also leaves out low-income and disabled enrollees who already get help paying their Part B premiums.
Ongoing1
This story has run 2 times over 4 days, starting Oct 4.
- Trump orders one-time $90 Medicare premium rebates to 20.8 million seniors, paid from a 2008 fund
- Trump sends one-time $90 Medicare premium rebates to 20.8 million, under a third of enrollees — this issue
Leaked audio: Ken Paxton tells donors the Iran war and gas prices, not tariffs, are dragging his Senate campaign
AXIOSIran warPaxton (R-TX) cited diesel above $6 a gallon and added, "I don't make the decisions"; this is his third leaked recording after earlier tapes blamed Trump's convention for hurting his numbers and said D.C. controls his race.
The rescue effort
- The Senate GOP super PAC, MAGA Inc. and others are spending heavily to save Paxton (Politico).
- A Republican in the rescue effort: "He is welcome to raise his own money and say whatever he wants."
- Former Rep. Carlos Curbelo: Paxton is "preparing to blame others for what might be one of the most embarrassing defeats in modern political history."
Ongoing2
This story has run 3 times over 25 days, starting Sep 13.
- UpdateSenate Republican allies booked $51 million in Texas ads to back Ken Paxton
- Thom Tillis (Sen-R North Carolina) says Trump backing Ken Paxton (R-TX) risks Texas Senate seat.
- Leaked audio: Ken Paxton tells donors the Iran war and gas prices, not tariffs, are dragging his Senate campaign — this issue
Michigan GOP Senate nominee Mike Rogers says in NRSC co-funded ad to end Canada tariff war now
POLITICOTariffs and tradeThe ad says "Canada is not our enemy" and never names Donald Trump, who said he took it to mean Canada should make a deal.
Also in the record
- Rogers ran an earlier ad urging a quick end to the Iran war; it also did not name Trump.
- Michigan trades about $80 billion a year with Canada, per Politico.
- Trump: "Canada has been ripping off our country for many, many years."
Ongoing2
This story has run 3 times over 15 days, starting Sep 23.
- Kamala Harris campaigns in Detroit to shore up Black voters for Abdul El-Sayed
- Obama will campaign in Detroit on Oct. 24 for Michigan Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed (D-MI)
- Michigan GOP Senate nominee Mike Rogers says in NRSC co-funded ad to end Canada tariff war now — this issue
Elections22 races
The midterms · 26 days out · November 3, 2026
D or R take the House / Senate?
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 92%, Kalshi 90%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 64%, Kalshi 63%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.
No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only
Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.
- two venues, priced separately
- shaded = how far apart they are
- 50% — control flips here
- where it stood 7 days ago
- the last 7 days, on its own scale
- week panel: one line a party
The week panel draws one line per party, crossing where control does. Only the Democratic line is a traded price: the Republicanline is its arithmetic complement, the same mirror the bar’s other half is, and not a second market agreeing with the first. The shading around each line is how far apart the two venues are.
Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.
The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 2.0pp gap / 1.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.
Who is defending the House and the Senate is sourced, not remembered — House, 2026-07-23 issue: the NDAA passed “216-212, with six Democrats joining a unified Republican majority.”; Senate, 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.”
Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
| Day | U.S. House · Polymarket | U.S. House · Kalshi | U.S. Senate · Polymarket | U.S. Senate · Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days ago | 93% | 92% | 65% | 63% |
| 6 days ago | 94% | 92% | 65% | 63% |
| 5 days ago | 93% | 92% | 68% | 63% |
| 4 days ago | 93% | 92% | 66% | 64% |
| 3 days ago | 93% | 92% | 65% | 63% |
| 2 days ago | 92% | 91% | 65% | 65% |
| yesterday | 92% | 91% | 64% | 64% |
| today | 92% | 90% | 64% | 63% |
3 closest races
xGeorgia governor
POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election
Rick Jackson (R) faces Keisha Lance Bottoms (D).
Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a narrow lead.
Two markets, one question
Georgia governor
Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT
widest venue gap 4.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia governor. Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 50.5%, Kalshi 54.5%; Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 47.5%, Kalshi 45.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Rick Jackson 54% · Keisha Lance Bottoms 46%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Rick Jackson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$75.6K51.5%Kalshi656K contracts · 54%/55%52.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.0ppKeisha Lance Bottoms (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$107K48.5%Kalshi620K contracts · 45%/46%50.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia governor, snapshot Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT. Day Rick Jackson · Polymarket Rick Jackson · Kalshi Keisha Lance Bottoms · Polymarket Keisha Lance Bottoms · Kalshi 7 days ago 51.5% 52.0% 48.5% 50.0% 6 days ago 52.5% 52.0% 46.0% 48.0% 5 days ago 54.5% 53.0% 45.5% 49.0% 4 days ago 50.5% 53.0% 47.5% 48.0% 3 days ago 50.5% 53.0% 49.5% 47.0% 2 days ago 50.5% 54.0% 47.5% 48.0% yesterday 50.5% 55.0% 47.5% 47.0% today 50.5% 54.5% 47.5% 45.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
yNevada governor
POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election
Aaron Ford (D) faces Joe Lombardo (R).
Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead after gaining about seven points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Nevada governor
Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT
widest venue gap 4.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nevada governor. Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 56.5%, Kalshi 52.5%; Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 43.5%, Kalshi 47.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Aaron Ford 53% · Joe Lombardo 46%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Aaron Ford (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$189K49%Kalshi914K contracts · 52%/53%47%venue gap2.0pp7-day move+7.5ppJoe Lombardo (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$160K50.5%Kalshi382K contracts · 47%/48%54.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move-7.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nevada governor, snapshot Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT. Day Aaron Ford · Polymarket Aaron Ford · Kalshi Joe Lombardo · Polymarket Joe Lombardo · Kalshi 7 days ago 49.0% 47.0% 50.5% 54.0% 6 days ago 53.5% 47.0% 47.5% 53.0% 5 days ago 51.5% 47.0% 48.0% 52.0% 4 days ago 55.5% 49.0% 44.5% 52.0% 3 days ago 55.5% 48.0% 44.5% 53.0% 2 days ago 56.5% 52.0% 43.5% 48.0% yesterday 56.5% 55.0% 43.5% 47.0% today 56.5% 52.5% 43.5% 47.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
tIowa Senate
POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election
Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).
An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Iowa Senate
Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 54.5%, Kalshi 56.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 45.5%, Kalshi 44.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Ashley Hinson 56% · Josh Turek 45%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Ashley Hinson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$356K56.5%Kalshi2.1M contracts · 56%/57%60.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move-2.0ppJosh Turek (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$403K43%Kalshi2.4M contracts · 44%/45%42%venue gap1.0pp7-day move+2.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa Senate, snapshot Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT. Day Ashley Hinson · Polymarket Ashley Hinson · Kalshi Josh Turek · Polymarket Josh Turek · Kalshi 7 days ago 56.5% 60.0% 43.0% 42.0% 6 days ago 56.5% 58.0% 43.5% 42.0% 5 days ago 57.5% 56.0% 41.5% 45.0% 4 days ago 57.5% 57.0% 42.5% 45.0% 3 days ago 57.5% 57.0% 42.5% 44.0% 2 days ago 54.5% 57.0% 45.5% 43.0% yesterday 54.5% 55.0% 45.5% 46.0% today 54.5% 56.5% 45.5% 44.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
The other 19 races
Senate9 of 10
sAlaska Senate
POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election
Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).
A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Alaska Senate
Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT
widest venue gap 4.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 73.5%, Kalshi 76.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 27.5%, Kalshi 23.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Mary Peltola 74% · Dan Sullivan 26%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Mary Peltola (D)7 days agoPolymarket$710K71.5%Kalshi193K contracts · 76%/77%72.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+2.0ppDan Sullivan (R)7 days agoPolymarket$352K28.5%Kalshi169K contracts · 23%/24%31.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska Senate, snapshot Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT. Day Mary Peltola · Polymarket Mary Peltola · Kalshi Dan Sullivan · Polymarket Dan Sullivan · Kalshi 7 days ago 71.5% 72.0% 28.5% 31.0% 6 days ago 72.5% 70.0% 27.5% 29.0% 5 days ago 72.5% 69.0% 27.5% 30.0% 4 days ago 73.5% 70.0% 27.5% 29.0% 3 days ago 73.5% 73.0% 27.5% 28.0% 2 days ago 73.5% 73.0% 27.5% 28.0% yesterday 73.5% 77.0% 27.5% 25.0% today 73.5% 76.5% 27.5% 23.5% aaGeorgia Senate
POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election
Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia Senate
Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.4pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 96.85%, Kalshi 96.50%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 3.20%, Kalshi 3.55%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.4pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jon Ossoff 97% · Mike Collins 3.5%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jon Ossoff (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$92.3K97.15%Kalshi462K contracts · 96%/97%95.00%venue gap2.2pp7-day move-0.3ppMike Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$118K2.65%Kalshi1.1M contracts · 3.4%/3.7%5.50%venue gap2.9pp7-day move+0.6ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia Senate, snapshot Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT. Day Jon Ossoff · Polymarket Jon Ossoff · Kalshi Mike Collins · Polymarket Mike Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 97.15% 95.0% 2.65% 5.50% 6 days ago 97.20% 95.3% 2.80% 4.70% 5 days ago 97.15% 96.3% 2.95% 4.40% 4 days ago 96.20% 96.3% 3.30% 4.40% 3 days ago 96.70% 94.9% 3.40% 4.40% 2 days ago 96.75% 96.1% 3.20% 3.90% yesterday 96.85% 96.1% 3.20% 3.90% today 96.85% 96.5% 3.20% 3.55% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
qMaine Senate
POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election
Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).
Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Maine Senate
Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 57.5%, Kalshi 57.0%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 42.5%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Troy Jackson 57% · Susan Collins 43%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Troy Jackson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$1.2M59.5%Kalshi4.0M contracts · 56%/58%59.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-2.0ppSusan Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$948K40.5%Kalshi4.1M contracts · 43%/44%42.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Maine Senate, snapshot Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT. Day Troy Jackson · Polymarket Troy Jackson · Kalshi Susan Collins · Polymarket Susan Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 59.5% 59% 40.5% 42.0% 6 days ago 59.5% 58% 40.5% 41.0% 5 days ago 58.5% 60% 42.5% 41.0% 4 days ago 58.5% 59% 41.5% 41.0% 3 days ago 58.5% 58% 42.5% 43.0% 2 days ago 57.5% 55% 42.5% 45.0% yesterday 57.5% 57% 42.5% 43.0% today 57.5% 57% 42.5% 43.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
uMichigan Senate
POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election
Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan Senate
Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 72.5%, Kalshi 70.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 28.5%, Kalshi 30.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 71% · Mike Rogers 30%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Abdul El-Sayed (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$794K72.5%Kalshi2.3M contracts · 70%/71%73.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppMike Rogers (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$575K27.5%Kalshi3.2M contracts · 30%/31%29.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan Senate, snapshot Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT. Day Abdul El-Sayed · Polymarket Abdul El-Sayed · Kalshi Mike Rogers · Polymarket Mike Rogers · Kalshi 7 days ago 72.5% 73.0% 27.5% 29.0% 6 days ago 72.5% 72.0% 27.5% 30.0% 5 days ago 72.5% 73.0% 27.0% 27.0% 4 days ago 73.5% 71.0% 26.5% 29.0% 3 days ago 72.5% 71.0% 27.5% 29.0% 2 days ago 72.5% 73.0% 28.5% 27.0% yesterday 72.5% 71.0% 28.5% 29.0% today 72.5% 70.5% 28.5% 30.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
abNebraska Senate
POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election
Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Nebraska Senate
Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 71.5%, Kalshi 73.0%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 28.5%, Kalshi 27.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Pete Ricketts 73% · Dan Osborn 28%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Pete Ricketts (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$306K74%Kalshi1.4M contracts · 72%/74%72%venue gap2.0pp7-day move-2.5ppDan Osborn (I)7 days agoPolymarket$149K25.5%Kalshi879K contracts · 27%/28%29.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move+3.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nebraska Senate, snapshot Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT. Day Pete Ricketts · Polymarket Pete Ricketts · Kalshi Dan Osborn · Polymarket Dan Osborn · Kalshi 7 days ago 74.0% 72% 25.5% 29.0% 6 days ago 72.5% 73% 27.0% 27.0% 5 days ago 72.5% 73% 27.5% 28.0% 4 days ago 73.5% 73% 26.5% 28.0% 3 days ago 71.5% 73% 28.5% 27.0% 2 days ago 71.5% 72% 28.5% 29.0% yesterday 71.5% 73% 28.5% 27.0% today 71.5% 73% 28.5% 27.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
acNew Hampshire Senate
POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election
Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side lost about four points in a week.
Two markets, one question
New Hampshire Senate
Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 90.0%, Kalshi 88.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 10.5%, Kalshi 10.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Chris Pappas 89% · John E. Sununu 11%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Chris Pappas (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$158K86.5%Kalshi566K contracts · 88%/89%87.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+3.5ppJohn E. Sununu (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$161K13.5%Kalshi1.3M contracts · 10%/11%15.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-3.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. New Hampshire Senate, snapshot Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT. Day Chris Pappas · Polymarket Chris Pappas · Kalshi John E. Sununu · Polymarket John E. Sununu · Kalshi 7 days ago 86.5% 87.0% 13.5% 15.0% 6 days ago 86.5% 87.0% 13.5% 13.0% 5 days ago 87.5% 85.0% 14.0% 15.0% 4 days ago 86.5% 86.0% 13.5% 14.0% 3 days ago 87.0% 86.0% 10.5% 14.0% 2 days ago 89.5% 86.0% 10.5% 14.0% yesterday 90.0% 90.0% 10.5% 11.0% today 90.0% 88.5% 10.5% 10.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
zNorth Carolina Senate
POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election
Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
North Carolina Senate
Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.7pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 96.30%, Kalshi 96.95%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 3.6%, Kalshi 3.1%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.7pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Roy Cooper 97% · Michael Whatley 3.1%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Roy Cooper (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$105K95.5%Kalshi1.5M contracts · 97%/97%94.1%venue gap1.4pp7-day move+0.8ppMichael Whatley (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$110K4.5%Kalshi1.3M contracts · 3.0%/3.2%6.5%venue gap2.0pp7-day move-0.9ppEvery sample behind the chart. North Carolina Senate, snapshot Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT. Day Roy Cooper · Polymarket Roy Cooper · Kalshi Michael Whatley · Polymarket Michael Whatley · Kalshi 7 days ago 95.5% 94.10% 4.50% 6.5% 6 days ago 96.2% 94.10% 3.55% 6.3% 5 days ago 96.1% 95.00% 3.85% 4.8% 4 days ago 96.2% 95.20% 3.65% 4.9% 3 days ago 96.2% 95.30% 3.65% 5.3% 2 days ago 96.3% 97.00% 3.65% 3.5% yesterday 96.3% 96.50% 3.60% 3.6% today 96.3% 96.95% 3.60% 3.1% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
vOhio Senate
POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election
Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).
A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Ohio Senate
Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 61.5%, Kalshi 62.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 38.5%, Kalshi 37.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Sherrod Brown 62% · Jon Husted 38%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Sherrod Brown (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$636K59.5%Kalshi3.1M contracts · 62%/63%59.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+2.0ppJon Husted (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$443K41.5%Kalshi2.9M contracts · 37%/38%41.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-3.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio Senate, snapshot Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT. Day Sherrod Brown · Polymarket Sherrod Brown · Kalshi Jon Husted · Polymarket Jon Husted · Kalshi 7 days ago 59.5% 59.0% 41.5% 41.0% 6 days ago 60.5% 61.0% 39.5% 40.0% 5 days ago 61.5% 60.0% 38.5% 41.0% 4 days ago 61.5% 63.0% 38.5% 38.0% 3 days ago 61.5% 64.0% 38.5% 37.0% 2 days ago 61.5% 64.0% 38.5% 36.0% yesterday 61.5% 63.0% 38.5% 38.0% today 61.5% 62.5% 38.5% 37.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
rTexas Senate
POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election
James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about five points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Texas Senate
Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 65.5%, Kalshi 66.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 33.5%, Kalshi 34.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: James Talarico 66% · Ken Paxton 34%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
James Talarico (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$1.2M60.5%Kalshi8.3M contracts · 66%/67%61.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+5.0ppKen Paxton (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$1.3M38.5%Kalshi12M contracts · 34%/35%39.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-5.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas Senate, snapshot Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT. Day James Talarico · Polymarket James Talarico · Kalshi Ken Paxton · Polymarket Ken Paxton · Kalshi 7 days ago 60.5% 61.0% 38.5% 39.0% 6 days ago 64.5% 63.0% 36.5% 37.0% 5 days ago 63.5% 64.0% 35.5% 38.0% 4 days ago 64.5% 65.0% 35.5% 36.0% 3 days ago 65.5% 63.0% 35.5% 37.0% 2 days ago 65.5% 65.0% 33.5% 36.0% yesterday 65.5% 67.0% 33.5% 35.0% today 65.5% 66.5% 33.5% 34.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
Governors10 of 12
aeAlaska governor
POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election
Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).
Wilson holds a clear lead after gaining about five points in six days.
Two markets, one question
Alaska governor
Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 21.5%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 1.0%, Kalshi 0.7%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 4–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Bernadette Wilson 20% · Tom Begich 0.8%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Bernadette Wilson (R)7 days agoPolymarket$188K18%Kalshi58.9K contracts · 21%/22%—venue gap—7-day move+1.5ppTom Begich (D)7 days agoPolymarket$166K1.05%Kalshi246K contracts · 0.5%/0.9%—venue gap—7-day move-0.1ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska governor, snapshot Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT. Day Bernadette Wilson · Polymarket Bernadette Wilson · Kalshi Tom Begich · Polymarket Tom Begich · Kalshi 7 days ago 18.0% — 1.05% — 6 days ago 18.5% 14.0% 1.05% — 5 days ago 18.5% 18.0% 1.00% — 4 days ago 21.0% 16.0% 1.00% — 3 days ago 21.5% 21.0% 1.00% 0.6% 2 days ago 19.5% 20.0% 1.05% 0.6% yesterday 19.5% 22.0% 1.00% 0.5% today 19.5% 21.5% 1.00% 0.7% agArizona governor
POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election
Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Arizona governor
Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 90.5%, Kalshi 88.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 9.5%, Kalshi 11.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Katie Hobbs 89% · Andy Biggs 11%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Katie Hobbs (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$57.9K88.5%Kalshi350K contracts · 88%/89%88.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+2.0ppAndy Biggs (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$55.5K10.5%Kalshi289K contracts · 11%/12%12.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Arizona governor, snapshot Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT. Day Katie Hobbs · Polymarket Katie Hobbs · Kalshi Andy Biggs · Polymarket Andy Biggs · Kalshi 7 days ago 88.5% 88.0% 10.5% 12.0% 6 days ago 88.5% 88.0% 10.5% 12.0% 5 days ago 91.5% 89.0% 8.5% 13.0% 4 days ago 91.5% 88.0% 9.5% 13.0% 3 days ago 90.5% 88.0% 9.5% 12.0% 2 days ago 90.5% 88.0% 9.5% 13.0% yesterday 90.5% 88.0% 9.5% 12.0% today 90.5% 88.5% 9.5% 11.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
akFlorida governor
POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election
Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).
Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Florida governor
Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 77.5%, Kalshi 77.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 21.5%, Kalshi 23.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Byron Donalds 77% · David Jolly 23%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Byron Donalds (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$131K77.5%Kalshi1.7M contracts · 77%/78%78.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppDavid Jolly (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$147K22.5%Kalshi795K contracts · 23%/24%24.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Florida governor, snapshot Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT. Day Byron Donalds · Polymarket Byron Donalds · Kalshi David Jolly · Polymarket David Jolly · Kalshi 7 days ago 77.5% 78.0% 22.5% 24.0% 6 days ago 77.5% 77.0% 22.5% 24.0% 5 days ago 76.5% 77.0% 24.5% 23.0% 4 days ago 76.5% 76.0% 23.5% 24.0% 3 days ago 76.5% 78.0% 23.5% 24.0% 2 days ago 77.5% 75.0% 21.5% 24.0% yesterday 77.5% 77.0% 21.5% 23.0% today 77.5% 77.5% 21.5% 23.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
adIowa governor
POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election
Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about three points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Iowa governor
Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 86.5%, Kalshi 88.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 14.5%, Kalshi 11.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Rob Sand 88% · Zach Lahn 12%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Rob Sand (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$72.2K84.5%Kalshi469K contracts · 88%/89%85.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+2.0ppZach Lahn (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$75.1K14.5%Kalshi767K contracts · 11%/12%17.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa governor, snapshot Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT. Day Rob Sand · Polymarket Rob Sand · Kalshi Zach Lahn · Polymarket Zach Lahn · Kalshi 7 days ago 84.5% 85.0% 14.5% 17.0% 6 days ago 84.5% 85.0% 14.0% 17.0% 5 days ago 88.5% 85.0% 11.5% 17.0% 4 days ago 88.5% 85.0% 11.5% 17.0% 3 days ago 85.5% 86.0% 14.5% 16.0% 2 days ago 85.5% 88.0% 14.5% 13.0% yesterday 86.5% 87.0% 14.5% 13.0% today 86.5% 88.5% 14.5% 11.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
afMichigan governor
POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election
Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Michigan governor
Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.2pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 93.35%, Kalshi 92.10%; John James (R): Polymarket 6.55%, Kalshi 7.65%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.2pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jocelyn Benson 93% · John James 7.1%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jocelyn Benson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$79.2K91.5%Kalshi83.4K contracts · 92%/93%92.8%venue gap1.3pp7-day move+1.8ppJohn James (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$168K8.5%Kalshi172K contracts · 7.2%/8.1%9.9%venue gap1.4pp7-day move-2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan governor, snapshot Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT. Day Jocelyn Benson · Polymarket Jocelyn Benson · Kalshi John James · Polymarket John James · Kalshi 7 days ago 91.50% 92.8% 8.50% 9.90% 6 days ago 94.65% 91.8% 5.30% 8.60% 5 days ago 94.15% 92.6% 5.55% 6.90% 4 days ago 94.10% 93.2% 4.95% 7.30% 3 days ago 94.55% 93.3% 5.45% 6.90% 2 days ago 93.40% 92.9% 6.45% 7.80% yesterday 93.35% 93.4% 6.55% 8.40% today 93.35% 92.1% 6.55% 7.65% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
aiNew York governor
POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election
Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
New York governor
Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.9pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 95.55%, Kalshi 95.20%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 4.60%, Kalshi 5.45%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.9pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Kathy Hochul 95% · Bruce Blakeman 5.4%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Kathy Hochul (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$56.5K95.5%Kalshi472K contracts · 95%/95%94.4%venue gap1.1pp7-day move+0.1ppBruce Blakeman (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$107K4.5%Kalshi1.6M contracts · 5.1%/5.8%4.9%venue gap0.4pp7-day move+0.1ppEvery sample behind the chart. New York governor, snapshot Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT. Day Kathy Hochul · Polymarket Kathy Hochul · Kalshi Bruce Blakeman · Polymarket Bruce Blakeman · Kalshi 7 days ago 95.50% 94.4% 4.50% 4.90% 6 days ago 95.50% 95.0% 4.50% 5.70% 5 days ago 95.50% 95.0% 4.00% 5.20% 4 days ago 96.10% 95.0% 3.95% 5.00% 3 days ago 96.20% 95.1% 3.45% 5.50% 2 days ago 96.05% 96.0% 3.65% 4.20% yesterday 95.60% 95.1% 4.60% 5.20% today 95.55% 95.2% 4.60% 5.45% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
pOhio governor
POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election
Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).
Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about seven points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Ohio governor
Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 67.5%, Kalshi 66.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 32.5%, Kalshi 33.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Amy Acton 67% · Vivek Ramaswamy 33%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Amy Acton (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$137K61.5%Kalshi927K contracts · 66%/67%59.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+6.0ppVivek Ramaswamy (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$153K36.5%Kalshi1.1M contracts · 33%/34%41.0%venue gap4.5pp7-day move-4.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio governor, snapshot Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT. Day Amy Acton · Polymarket Amy Acton · Kalshi Vivek Ramaswamy · Polymarket Vivek Ramaswamy · Kalshi 7 days ago 61.5% 59.0% 36.5% 41.0% 6 days ago 65.5% 62.0% 34.5% 38.0% 5 days ago 67.0% 62.0% 33.5% 38.0% 4 days ago 67.5% 64.0% 32.5% 37.0% 3 days ago 67.5% 66.0% 31.5% 33.0% 2 days ago 66.5% 64.0% 32.5% 35.0% yesterday 67.5% 66.0% 32.5% 36.0% today 67.5% 66.5% 32.5% 33.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
ajPennsylvania governor
POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election
Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Pennsylvania governor
Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.8pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 96.80%, Kalshi 97.55%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.70%, Kalshi 2.55%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.8pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Josh Shapiro 98% · Stacy Garrity 2.6%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Josh Shapiro (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$8.4K97.2%Kalshi165K contracts · 97%/98%97.3%venue gap0.1pp7-day move-0.4ppStacy Garrity (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$43.5K2.6%Kalshi413K contracts · 2.2%/2.9%4.9%venue gap2.3pp7-day move+0.1ppEvery sample behind the chart. Pennsylvania governor, snapshot Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT. Day Josh Shapiro · Polymarket Josh Shapiro · Kalshi Stacy Garrity · Polymarket Stacy Garrity · Kalshi 7 days ago 97.20% 97.30% 2.60% 4.90% 6 days ago 96.90% 97.40% 2.60% 2.70% 5 days ago 96.85% 97.40% 2.65% 3.70% 4 days ago 96.90% 97.70% 2.65% 2.70% 3 days ago 96.90% 97.80% 2.65% 3.50% 2 days ago 96.85% 97.40% 2.70% 2.20% yesterday 96.80% 97.60% 2.70% 2.40% today 96.80% 97.55% 2.70% 2.55% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
ahTexas governor
POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election
Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead, but no race here has moved more this week: it is down about seven points.
Two markets, one question
Texas governor
Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.3pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 72.15%, Kalshi 74.50%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 26.5%, Kalshi 26.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.3pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Greg Abbott 74% · Gina Hinojosa 27%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Greg Abbott (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$275K82.55%Kalshi569K contracts · 74%/75%78.00%venue gap4.5pp7-day move-10ppGina Hinojosa (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$203K17.5%Kalshi1.2M contracts · 26%/27%24.0%venue gap6.5pp7-day move+9.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas governor, snapshot Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT. Day Greg Abbott · Polymarket Greg Abbott · Kalshi Gina Hinojosa · Polymarket Gina Hinojosa · Kalshi 7 days ago 82.55% 78.0% 17.5% 24.0% 6 days ago 74.15% 82.0% 24.5% 21.0% 5 days ago 73.85% 80.0% 26.5% 21.0% 4 days ago 72.95% 76.0% 27.5% 25.0% 3 days ago 72.35% 74.0% 27.5% 27.0% 2 days ago 72.25% 76.0% 26.5% 26.0% yesterday 72.15% 72.0% 26.5% 30.0% today 72.15% 74.5% 26.5% 26.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
wWisconsin governor
POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election
David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).
An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Wisconsin governor
Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 81.5%, Kalshi 79.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 18.5%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: David Crowley 80% · Tom Tiffany 20%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
David Crowley (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$364K81.5%Kalshi498K contracts · 79%/80%82.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppTom Tiffany (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$345K18.5%Kalshi803K contracts · 20%/21%19.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Wisconsin governor, snapshot Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT. Day David Crowley · Polymarket David Crowley · Kalshi Tom Tiffany · Polymarket Tom Tiffany · Kalshi 7 days ago 81.5% 82.0% 18.5% 19.0% 6 days ago 82.5% 81.0% 18.5% 20.0% 5 days ago 81.5% 81.0% 18.5% 21.0% 4 days ago 80.5% 80.0% 18.5% 20.0% 3 days ago 80.5% 79.0% 18.5% 21.0% 2 days ago 81.0% 79.0% 18.5% 21.0% yesterday 81.5% 80.0% 18.5% 20.0% today 81.5% 79.5% 18.5% 20.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.