News news6 stories
Ongoing14 earlier updates45 days
This story has run 15 times over 45 days, starting Jul 23.
- Trump Threatens to Bomb Iranian Bridges and Power Plants for Every Ship Hit in Strait of Hormuz
- Iran fires multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. base in Jordan; all are intercepted
- Iran denies Trump’s claim that new U.S. talks would start Monday
- Cargo ship is struck in the Strait of Hormuz
- Vance says the Iran talks are moving, then calls the war only half over
- Iran won't reopen Hormuz until the US unfreezes its assets and lifts the blockade
- Trump threatens to bomb Oman, the U.S. ally brokering the deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
- Trump declares an "economic D-Day" on Iran as Hormuz traffic runs 85% below normal
- UpdateU.S. goes nearly a month without large Iran strikes as Trump shifts back to sanctions; Hormuz remains closed
- U.S. destroys two Iranian rocket launchers loaded to mine the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at bases in Jordan, all intercepted
- UpdateU.S. bombs two Iranian rocket sites near the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at Jordan
- UpdateU.S. forces struck IRGC air-defense, radar, maritime and mine-laying sites on Iran's southern coast starting at noon on Sept. 1
- UpdateU.S. hits about 100 Iranian targets; Iran fires back at American bases in four countries, and a cruise missile kills 4 at a wedding
- Reuters weapons experts say a US munition made a direct hit on the Iranian wedding house that killed 5
- US destroys three Iranian oil tankers after Iran fired ballistic missiles at a US carrier and destroyer, no US casualties — this issue
Adm. Brad Cooper said the ratio is deliberate: two US ships shot at, three Iranian ships taken out.
U.S. Central Command struck three Iranian crude oil tankers on Saturday, Sept. 5, after Iran's Revolutionary Guard fired ballistic missiles at a U.S. aircraft carrier and a destroyer. Both American ships dodged the missiles. No U.S. personnel were hurt. It is the sixth month of the on-and-off war that began with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28.
“If you shoot at two of our ships, we will impose an even higher economic cost — taking out three of yours.”Adm. Brad Cooper, U.S. Central Command ([TS]CNN reported the same week that the fighting has killed 18 U.S. service members and wounded more than 100 since it began Feb. 28.)
The three ships:
- M/T Downy, off Kharg Island: permanently disabled
- M/T Stark 1, near Jask: permanently disabled
- M/T Kylo, Gulf of Oman: destroyed
What next. Iran's foreign ministry called the strikes a "war crime" and its armed forces threatened more attacks on U.S. vessels. The Revolutionary Guard claims it hit six ships in return, which CENTCOM has not confirmed. Trump said the same day the U.S. "may hit" Iran's underground nuclear site at Pickaxe Mountain "very soon."
What the strikes hit, and what Tehran admits
- M/T Kylo was empty when it was destroyed; CENTCOM has not said whether the two disabled tankers carried cargo
- Tehran state media confirmed only one tanker hit, near Kharg Island, and reported no immediate Iranian military response
Ongoing6 earlier updates11 days
This story has run 7 times over 11 days, starting Aug 26.
- CIA chief Ratcliffe makes rare Moscow visit
- CIA chief reportedly warned Moscow against a limited Russian attack on NATO
- CIA chief secretly met Russian intelligence officials in Moscow
- UpdateCIA chief told Moscow to end the Ukraine war before Russia’s military and economy worsen
- Russia's finance minister returned to the G20 in person for the first time since the Ukraine invasion
- Witkoff and Kushner meet Putin in Moscow Sept. 5, Zelensky in Kyiv Sept. 6, carrying a U.S. proposal to end the war
- UpdatePutin orders a 72-hour halt to strikes on Kyiv after a three-hour Kremlin meeting with Witkoff and Kushner — this issue
The pause runs from midnight Sunday, Sept. 6 to midnight Sept. 9; Zelensky's matching halt on strikes against Moscow ends Monday, Sept. 7, about a day earlier.
Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, the two envoys Donald Trump has assigned to the Ukraine war, met Vladimir Putin (President, Russia) at the Kremlin for three hours on Saturday, Sept. 5. Putin then ordered Russian forces to stop striking Kyiv for 72 hours, starting at midnight. Volodymyr Zelensky (President, Ukraine) had already said Ukraine would hold off on hitting Moscow through Monday, Sept. 7, and expected Russia to do the same for Kyiv. ([TS]Ukraine's General Staff logged 2,299 alleged Russian violations of the 32-hour April 2026 Easter ceasefire by 7 a.m.) The pause covers the two capitals only, not the front line or any other city.
Hours before the announcement, a Russian strike on an industrial site in Kamianske, in the Dnipropetrovsk region, killed four people and wounded five. Ukraine's air force counted 167 attack drones plus ballistic missiles in that overnight wave and said it downed or jammed 128 of them — about three in four.
What next. The envoys fly to Kyiv on Sunday, Sept. 6, to relay what Putin told them. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said there was "no talk of new ideas" in the Moscow session.
Catch up
- Aug. 30 — A Russian drone hit an ammunition depot near Kyiv; Ukrainian officials reported 38 killed and 20 injured, including two children.
- Sept. 1 — Russia's finance minister attended the G20 in person for the first time since the invasion; Europeans kept him out of the group photo.
- Sept. 5 — Ukraine ordered its own forces to hold fire on Moscow-linked targets Sept. 5-8 so the U.S. envoys could travel; Russia had not yet agreed to reciprocate.
5 earlier issues
- CIA chief Ratcliffe makes rare Moscow visit
- CIA chief reportedly warned Moscow against a limited Russian attack on NATO
- CIA chief secretly met Russian intelligence officials in Moscow
- UpdateCIA chief told Moscow to end the Ukraine war before Russia’s military and economy worsen
- Russia's finance minister returned to the G20 in person for the first time since the Ukraine invasion
What this pause does not cover, and what Moscow still demands
- Russia's stated terms are unchanged: Ukraine cedes four claimed regions and drops its NATO bid.
- Drones hit a Mykolaiv shopping center in the same overnight wave, injuring a 72-year-old and a 17-year-old, and partly destroyed a nine-story apartment building in Boryspil, outside Kyiv.
- A second Dnipropetrovsk strike, on Nikopol district, wounded a 62-year-old man and damaged homes.
Ongoing1 earlier update
This story has run 2 times, starting Sep 5.
- U.S. employers added 162,000 jobs in August, about triple the 53,000-56,000 forecast, and unemployment held at 4.1%
- Update162,000 jobs added in August, triple the forecast; Trump blames the Fed and says markets are wrong — this issue
Stocks fell and the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.79% on Friday, Sept. 4, as traders read the hiring surge as a reason the Fed might raise rates rather than cut them.
U.S. employers added 162,000 jobs in August, nearly triple the 65,000 economists expected, and the unemployment rate held at 4.1%. Instead of a victory lap, Trump spent Friday, Sept. 4 in the Oval Office complaining about inflation, interest rates and the rising 10-year Treasury yield, blaming the Federal Reserve and America's trading partners. He has threatened to halt trade with countries that run a trade surplus against the U.S. unless the Fed cuts rates. ([TS]Forecasts ranged from 53,000 (CNBC consensus) to 65,000 (AP); actual was 162,000 per BLS.)
The numbers behind it:
- Jobs added in August: 162,000
- Forecast: 65,000
- Unemployment rate: 4.1%, unchanged
- Average hourly wage growth, year over year: 3.1%, the weakest since May 2021
- 10-year Treasury yield, Friday, Sept. 4: 4.79%
What next. The Fed's rate-setting committee (the group of officials who set short-term borrowing costs) meets Sept. 15-16, and August inflation figures land Sept. 11.
Catch up
- Aug. 19, 2026 — The national debt crossed $40 trillion, up from $30 trillion in early 2022.
- Sept. 4, 2026 — Trump, on Truth Social and again in the Oval Office, threatened to halt trade with countries running trade deficits with the U.S. unless the Fed cuts rates.
- Sept. 5, 2026 — Labor Department revisions added a combined 55,000 jobs to June and July, flipping July from a reported loss of 23,000 to a gain of 21,000.
What this jobs surprise did to September rate bets
- Market-implied odds of a September rate hike rose to 58%, from 49.4% the day before the report.
- Odds of a September cut fell to 0%, down from 90% after July's weak jobs report.
Red take
The 10-year hit 4.79% on Friday, and that number is not abstract: it sets mortgage rates and the interest bill on a debt that crossed $40 trillion on Aug. 19, while wages grow 3.1% a year. Trump's threat to halt trade with surplus countries is worse than useless — it adds risk premium to the very yield he wants lower, and 162,000 jobs against a 65,000 forecast is no case for an emergency cut. But traders pricing hike odds at 58% are forecasting Kevin Warsh, not overruling him. Before the Sept. 15-16 meeting, Warsh should say plainly why holding is worth what it costs borrowers.
Blue take
162,000 jobs, roughly triple the 65,000 economists expected, with unemployment at 4.1% — that is not an economy begging for cheaper money. Traders agreed within hours: odds of a September cut fell from 90% to zero, hike odds rose to 58%, and the 10-year closed at 4.79%. Warsh does owe the public a plain explanation for holding, and he should give it on Sept. 15-16 rather than hiding behind convention. But the pressure campaign is self-defeating: threatening to halt trade with surplus countries makes lenders demand a premium, which raises the very yield Trump spent Friday complaining about. Wait for the Sept. 11 inflation figures.
Justice Brett Kavanaugh gave the map's opponents until Monday, Sept. 7, to respond; the state says voters already cast ballots under the map in the August primary.
Missouri Attorney General Catherine Hanaway asked the U.S. Supreme Court on Friday, Sept. 4, to put the state's new Republican-drawn congressional map back in place for the November election. That map, passed as House Bill 1 (HB 1), would redraw Missouri's eight U.S. House districts. A day earlier, on Thursday, Sept. 3, the Missouri Supreme Court had thrown it out for now: it ordered the state back to its 2022 district lines for November and told the secretary of state to put HB 1 on the November ballot as a referendum (a public vote on whether a law stands). Opponents had gathered more than 300,000 signatures to force that vote. On Friday the state court refused to pause its own ruling while the appeal goes forward.
The state's argument is timing. HB 1 was already used in the August primary, and Missourians voted under its lines. "No court in American history has ever given such an extraordinary remedy, which inflicts unprecedented chaos on Missouri," the filing says. ([TS]The claim is the state's own; it appears in Missouri's emergency application to the Supreme Court.)
What next. Kavanaugh set a deadline of noon Monday, Sept. 7, for the map's opponents to respond. Missouri says it needs an answer by Tuesday, Sept. 8, the deadline in state law to finalize November ballots, and has asked the Court to rule by Sept. 13.
- Dec. 2025 — Opponents filed a referendum petition against HB 1. Under Missouri law, a valid petition suspends the law until voters decide it.
- Aug. 2026 — Missouri held its primary using the HB 1 lines.
- Thu Sept. 3 — The Missouri Supreme Court ruled the petition valid, restored the 2022 map for November, and ordered HB 1 onto the ballot.
- Fri Sept. 4 — The same court refused to pause its ruling during the appeal.
What the two maps do to Missouri's eight House seats
- Current 2022 lines: 6 Republicans, 2 Democrats
- HB 1 lines, by 2024 presidential results: 7 Republican-leaning seats, 1 Democratic
- The seat that moves: Emanuel Cleaver's Kansas City-based 5th, from D+23 to R+17
- How HB 1 does it: splits Kansas City across three districts and adds Lafayette, Johnson and Pettis counties
Related reading
The court set aside a fight over roughly 102,800 disputed signatures, holding that the petition had enough valid names either way.
The center's board used the collapse to press for a $250 million, two-year closure a federal judge blocked in May.
A section of the ceiling in the Kennedy Center's grand foyer — the long hallway connecting the Opera House, Concert Hall and Eisenhower Theater — fell during storms on Friday evening (Sept. 4, 2026), leaving a hole and debris across the floor. Nobody was hurt. The building closed for the evening, and an internal email obtained by ABC News said Worth knowingA ticketholder who assumes the collapse cancelled the show will miss it — performances are going ahead this weekend, but the grand foyer route between the Opera House, Concert Hall and Eisenhower Theater is closed, so the usual way of walking between halls will not work.
The center's leadership, appointed by Trump after he took over the board in 2025, blamed "decades of neglect and deferred maintenance by the previous leadership" and renewed its call for a $250 million, two-year renovation that requires closing the building. Judge Christopher Cooper blocked that closure on May 29.
What next. U.S. District Judge Christopher Cooper, who barred the shutdown on May 29, is still weighing a separate request to let the board put revised language honoring Trump on the facade. No ruling date has been set.
What engineers flagged before the Sept. 4 collapse
- Roof sections over the terrace weigh 22,000 pounds each and drain poorly
- Chillers and boilers are more than 30 years old; electrical systems date to the 1990s
Red take
On Sept. 4 a section of the grand foyer ceiling came down into the corridor connecting the Opera House, Concert Hall and Eisenhower Theater. Engineers had already flagged 22,000-pound roof sections that drain poorly, corroded steel in the service tunnel and boilers over 30 years old. The board owes the public an accounting of the $257 million Congress appropriated in 2025, and should publish it. But an audit does not replace a boiler. Judge Cooper's May order blocked the $250 million, two-year closure without funding any other route, so the work now happens piecemeal around live performances — slower, dearer, and with an audience underneath.
Blue take
If the Kennedy Center is truly unsafe, the board knows where to take that: Judge Cooper, who blocked the two-year closure in May. Instead the building stayed open all weekend and not one performance was moved. The engineering list is real and the money should be spent. But Congress already appropriated $257 million in 2025, roughly six times the normal federal allocation, and no public accounting shows where it went. A board that blames "decades of neglect by the previous leadership" while chasing facade language for Trump has not earned two dark years on trust.
Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine was not among those tested, and the Pentagon has not said why.
Roughly 50 members of the Joint Staff — the officers who work directly for the Joint Chiefs — were given lie-detector tests in August 2026 as part of a hunt for whoever told reporters that U.S. missile and interceptor stocks had been drained by the war with Iran. The group included senior officers and combatant commanders, a scale officials described as unprecedented. Nobody failed the questions about leaking to the press.
General Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was not polygraphed. No official has explained the carve-out on the record. Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell has said only that the department takes leaks seriously. ([TS]CBS News, Sept. 2026, citing a senior Pentagon official; the department has released no results of its own.)
Still open. Whether the August 2026 sweep produced any suspect, and whether more rounds are coming. Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell has said only that the department takes leaks seriously.
What the leaked reporting claimed, and how Trump answered it
- Interceptors left after the Iran war, per a CSIS estimate cited by CNN on July 29: fewer than 827 Patriot and fewer than 278 THAAD
- Army ATACMS and Precision Strike Missiles: 'virtually all' expended, Reuters reported
- Trump, Friday, Aug. 7: denied any shortage and vowed to jail the leakers
Red take
Fewer than 827 Patriot interceptors and an ATACMS stock 'virtually all' expended is not a budget disclosure — it tells an adversary how long American air defense can hold and when to move. The Joint Staff is a small pool; testing about 50 people who all had that access is proportionate to what the disclosure cost. Yes, the polygraph is unreliable and inadmissible, which is why no one failed and no one was charged; its value is that every officer knew he would be asked. And Parnell should explain on the record why Gen. Caine was exempt, because an unexplained carve-out undercuts the deterrent the sweep was meant to create.
Blue take
Americans spent $896.9 billion on defense in FY2025 and still ended one regional war with fewer than 278 THAAD interceptors. That is a fact Congress needed, and the disclosure of exact counts does help an adversary — the leaker should answer for it under law. But August's sweep of about 50 Joint Staff officers, combatant commanders included, produced no failures and no named suspect, and the department has released no results of its own. It bought no security. What it bought was silence, priced by the fact that Gen. Caine was not tested and Sean Parnell's Pentagon has never said why.
Quick bites8
Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee calls West Bank settler attacks 'an act of terror'
CBS NEWSAmbassador Mike Huckabee called squatters who seize land they don't own criminals. Their crime, he said, "extends beyond a criminal act — it's an act of terror." The embassy cannot investigate crimes itself, he said, but it can press Israel's government to act.
- A week earlier, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the violence the work of a "handful of rioters."
- Israel's Foreign Ministry called the settlers' conduct "a disgrace." Neither statement said whether anyone has been arrested or charged.
46% of Americans now oppose license-plate cameras in their town, up 13 points in a year
THE GUARDIANFlock's 100,000-plus cameras scan about 2 billion plates a month. Republican governors in Texas and Florida have moved to curb them. Police in several states have been caught using the network to track ex-partners and abortion seekers.
- Flock says its cameras have helped solve crimes.
- Flock says the technology helped reunite roughly 10,000 missing people with families.
- Camera count is disputed: BBC reports ~100,000 across 7,000+ communities; the Guardian reports ~120,000.
3 fired Stars and Stripes journalists will press their lawsuit after a judge refused to block the firings
THE HILLUpdateCourts and the adminis…A federal judge upheld the firing of three Stars and Stripes journalists. U.S. District Judge Trevor McFadden, a Trump appointee, ruled that publisher Max Lederer, editor-in-chief Erik Slavin and reporter Lara Korte lost their jobs for giving pre-approved CBS interviews as public employees, not for protected speech. Lederer says the three will keep suing.
Catch up
- Aug. 11 — Stars and Stripes published an article on conditions aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln, which its staff then discussed in CBS interviews the paper had cleared in advance.
- Sep. 5 — A federal judge declined to halt the firings of the paper's publisher, editor-in-chief and Middle East reporter.
- McFadden: the firings followed "pre-approved interviews on their paper's behalf in which they largely toed the company line" and do not "clearly offend the first amendment."
Ongoing1
This story has run 2 times, starting Sep 5.
- Judge lets Pentagon fire 3 Stars and Stripes journalists over a CBS interview
- Update3 fired Stars and Stripes journalists will press their lawsuit after a judge refused to block the firings — this issue
Administration will dig at Trump's 250-foot arch site near Arlington without final federal approvals
NPRUpdateThe four want the groundbreaking halted while their suit goes forward. They are Vietnam War veterans Michael Lemmon, Shaun Byrnes and Jon Gundersen, plus architectural historian Calder Loth.
Catch up
Sep. 4 — Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said digging for the 250-foot arch near Arlington National Cemetery starts within two weeks. The veterans' and historian's suit is still pending.
Ongoing1
This story has run 2 times over 2 days, starting Sep 4.
- Excavation for Trump's 250-foot arch near Arlington starts within two weeks, with a lawsuit pending
- UpdateAdministration will dig at Trump's 250-foot arch site near Arlington without final federal approvals — this issue
DOJ told antitrust staff to stop working with Canada, then called it a misunderstanding
WASHINGTON EXAMINERTariffs and tradeThe Justice Department's antitrust division told staff this week to stop working with Canadian counterparts, then reversed the order and called it a misunderstanding. It gave no reason for the pause and did not tie it to the tariff fight. Trump's 50% tariffs now hit about $20 billion of Canadian goods. The two countries traded $762.10 billion in 2024. Ottawa says it will match the tariffs dollar for dollar starting Sept. 8.
The escalation so far
- Trump's new tariffs: 50% on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods, out of $762.10 billion in two-way trade in 2024
- Canada's matching retaliatory tariffs take effect Sept. 8
- Trump also signed an executive order renaming Lake Ontario 'Lake America'
Magistrate judge orders DOJ to identify who designed the scrapped $1.8 billion 'anti-weaponization' fund
THE GUARDIANUpdateA federal judge ordered the Justice Department to name who designed a $1.8 billion payout fund. U.S. Magistrate Judge Ivan Davis of the Eastern District of Virginia granted discovery in Democracy Forward's lawsuit. The fund was tied to a settlement of Trump's since-discredited $10 billion IRS lawsuit. It would have paid people who claimed political targeting, possibly including pardoned Jan. 6 defendants.
Catch up
- Aug. 4 — Todd Blanche scrapped the fund for people claiming political targeting after backlash from both parties over possible payouts to pardoned Jan. 6 defendants.
- Aug. 8 — The Senate confirmed Blanche as attorney general, 50–49, with Cassidy the decisive vote and Murkowski and Collins opposed.
- Aug. 16 — On two Sunday shows, Blanche declined to promise the department would act independently of the White House, saying Trump's opinions can shape who gets prosecuted.
Ongoing1
This story has run 2 times, starting Sep 5.
- Judge orders DOJ to name who designed the $1.8B 'anti-weaponization' fund
- UpdateMagistrate judge orders DOJ to identify who designed the scrapped $1.8 billion 'anti-weaponization' fund — this issue
Trump will speak both nights of the RNC's first midterm convention, Sept. 9-10 in Dallas
CBS NEWS2026 midtermsSpeakers include Karoline Leavitt, Donald Trump Jr, Attorney General Todd Blanche, RFK Jr, House Speaker Mike Johnson, and Texas candidates Ken Paxton and Greg Abbott. Marco Rubio and Pete Hegseth are not on the list.
- Sept. 9-10, 2026 at the American Airlines Center in Dallas
- More than 100 speakers scheduled over the two days
- Trump promoted the event on Truth Social.
Gallup has party ID at 49% Democratic vs 39% Republican, a reversal of the GOP's 4-point edge in late 2024
THE GUARDIANThe 49% and 39% counts include independents who lean to each party, so they do not add up with the share who first call themselves independent.
- 45% of voters now call themselves independents, up from about a third in 2002
- Q4 2024 Gallup data gave Republicans a 4-point edge
Elections22 races
The midterms · 58 days out · November 3, 2026
D or R take the House / Senate?
today · 7-day panel
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 88%, Kalshi 85%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 52%, Kalshi 47%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.
No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only
How to read thisthe contract, the key, and the week panel
Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.
- two venues, priced separately
- shaded = how far apart they are
- 50% — control flips here
- where it stood 7 days ago
- the last 7 days, on its own scale
- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
Both lines in a week panel are the same contract, priced by two venues — not one line per party. Its colour is whose chance the bar is measuring, which is why a panel can be blue while the verdict beside it reads Republicans favoured.
Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.
The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 3.0pp gap / 5.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.
Who is defending the House and the Senate is sourced, not remembered — House, 2026-07-23 issue: the NDAA passed “216-212, with six Democrats joining a unified Republican majority.”; Senate, 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.”
Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
| Day | U.S. House · Polymarket | U.S. House · Kalshi | U.S. Senate · Polymarket | U.S. Senate · Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days ago | 89% | 84% | 51% | 48% |
| 6 days ago | 89% | 85% | 51% | 48% |
| 5 days ago | 89% | 85% | 52% | 49% |
| 4 days ago | 90% | 85% | 52% | 48% |
| 3 days ago | 89% | 85% | 52% | 48% |
| 2 days ago | 88% | 85% | 52% | 48% |
| yesterday | 88% | 85% | 52% | 48% |
| today | 88% | 85% | 52% | 47% |
The 3 closest of 22 races. Open one, or all of them — every race is on the page either way.
mTexas SenatePaxton vs. TalaricoTalarico50.5%Paxton52.0%books split
POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election
Ken Paxton (R) faces James Talarico (D).
The only race here where the two venues do not agree on who is ahead.
The books name different leaders
Texas Senate
Each line is one book’s lead — the gap between the two candidates, signed. Zero is a tie, and the two venues are on opposite sides of it.
Sep 5, 10:03 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.5ppTexas Senate. Lead in percentage points, positive to Ken Paxton. Kalshi: Paxton ahead by 3.5 points. Polymarket: Talarico ahead by 1 point. Every day is in the table below.
today
- Paxton+3.5%Kalshi
- Talarico+1%Polymarket
- Paxton49.5%Polymarket
- Paxton52.0%Kalshi
- Talarico50.5%Polymarket
- Talarico48.5%Kalshi
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. The lead is the gap between the two, in points. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
The lead is one candidate’s price minus the other’s, at the same venue on the same day — never one book’s Tuesday against the other’s Thursday. It is drawn only where a venue priced both candidates, so a line starts late rather than being stretched across days it was never quoted over.
A day inside a tenth of a point is printed as levelrather than being rounded onto somebody’s side: on a chart whose whole subject is who is in front, a dead heat shown as a win is the one error that cannot be recovered from the drawing.
The markets: Ken Paxton Polymarket, Kalshi · James Talarico Polymarket, Kalshi
Every price behind the chart, and the lead it produces. Texas Senate, snapshot Sep 5, 10:03 PM CT. Day Paxton · Polymarket Talarico · Polymarket Lead · Polymarket Paxton · Kalshi Talarico · Kalshi Lead · Kalshi 7 days ago 48.5% 50.0% Talarico +1.5% 50.0% 50.0% level 6 days ago 48.5% 50.5% Talarico +2% 51.0% 51.0% level 5 days ago 48.5% 50.5% Talarico +2% 51.0% 50.0% Paxton +1% 4 days ago 49.5% 50.5% Talarico +1% 51.0% 50.0% Paxton +1% 3 days ago 49.5% 50.5% Talarico +1% 53.0% 48.0% Paxton +5% 2 days ago 49.5% 50.5% Talarico +1% 52.0% 49.0% Paxton +3% yesterday 49.5% 50.5% Talarico +1% 53.0% 49.0% Paxton +4% today 49.5% 50.5% Talarico +1% 52.0% 48.5% Paxton +3.5% qOhio Senate
POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election
Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).
A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Ohio Senate
Sep 5, 10:03 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 55.5%, Kalshi 53.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 43.5%, Kalshi 46.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Sherrod Brown 54% · Jon Husted 46%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Sherrod Brown (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$124K54.5%Kalshi1.1M contracts · 53%/54%56.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+1.0ppJon Husted (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$88.4K45.5%Kalshi1.5M contracts · 46%/47%46.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio Senate, snapshot Sep 5, 10:03 PM CT. Day Sherrod Brown · Polymarket Sherrod Brown · Kalshi Jon Husted · Polymarket Jon Husted · Kalshi 7 days ago 54.5% 56.0% 45.5% 46.0% 6 days ago 54.5% 55.0% 45.5% 46.0% 5 days ago 54.5% 55.0% 45.5% 46.0% 4 days ago 55.5% 54.0% 44.5% 47.0% 3 days ago 55.5% 54.0% 43.5% 48.0% 2 days ago 55.5% 53.0% 43.5% 48.0% yesterday 55.5% 54.0% 43.5% 47.0% today 55.5% 53.5% 43.5% 46.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
kOhio governor
POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election
Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).
Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Ohio governor
Sep 5, 10:03 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 56.0%, Kalshi 57.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 43.5%, Kalshi 42.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Amy Acton 57% · Vivek Ramaswamy 43%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Amy Acton (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$82.9K53.5%Kalshi703K contracts · 57%/58%57.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move+2.5ppVivek Ramaswamy (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$100K46.5%Kalshi786K contracts · 42%/43%44.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-3.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio governor, snapshot Sep 5, 10:03 PM CT. Day Amy Acton · Polymarket Amy Acton · Kalshi Vivek Ramaswamy · Polymarket Vivek Ramaswamy · Kalshi 7 days ago 53.5% 57.0% 46.5% 44.0% 6 days ago 53.5% 57.0% 46.5% 44.0% 5 days ago 53.5% 57.0% 45.5% 43.0% 4 days ago 54.5% 58.0% 45.5% 42.0% 3 days ago 55.5% 57.0% 44.5% 44.0% 2 days ago 56.0% 57.0% 43.5% 44.0% yesterday 56.0% 58.0% 43.5% 43.0% today 56.0% 57.5% 43.5% 42.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
The other 19 races
Senate8 of 10
nAlaska Senate
POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election
Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).
A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Alaska Senate
Sep 5, 10:03 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 63.5%, Kalshi 65.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 36.5%, Kalshi 35.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Mary Peltola 64% · Dan Sullivan 36%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Mary Peltola (D)7 days agoPolymarket$244K65%Kalshi84.4K contracts · 65%/66%63%venue gap2.0pp7-day move-1.5ppDan Sullivan (R)7 days agoPolymarket$138K34.5%Kalshi73.7K contracts · 34%/37%39.0%venue gap4.5pp7-day move+2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska Senate, snapshot Sep 5, 10:03 PM CT. Day Mary Peltola · Polymarket Mary Peltola · Kalshi Dan Sullivan · Polymarket Dan Sullivan · Kalshi 7 days ago 65.0% 63.0% 34.5% 39.0% 6 days ago 63.5% 62.0% 36.5% 36.0% 5 days ago 63.5% 65.0% 36.5% 36.0% 4 days ago 63.5% 67.0% 36.5% 34.0% 3 days ago 63.5% 65.0% 36.5% 33.0% 2 days ago 63.5% 67.0% 36.5% 32.0% yesterday 63.5% 66.0% 36.5% 36.0% today 63.5% 65.5% 36.5% 35.5% vGeorgia Senate
POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election
Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia Senate
Sep 5, 10:03 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.9pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 93.5%, Kalshi 93.2%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 6.45%, Kalshi 7.35%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.9pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jon Ossoff 93% · Mike Collins 7.3%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jon Ossoff (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$49.3K93.5%Kalshi356K contracts · 93%/93%92.6%venue gap0.9pp7-day move0.0ppMike Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$74.5K6.4%Kalshi863K contracts · 7.0%/7.7%8.1%venue gap1.7pp7-day move+0.1ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia Senate, snapshot Sep 5, 10:03 PM CT. Day Jon Ossoff · Polymarket Jon Ossoff · Kalshi Mike Collins · Polymarket Mike Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 93.5% 92.6% 6.40% 8.10% 6 days ago 93.5% 92.8% 6.40% 7.70% 5 days ago 93.5% 93.0% 6.45% 7.50% 4 days ago 93.5% 93.4% 6.40% 7.40% 3 days ago 93.5% 93.6% 6.40% 7.40% 2 days ago 93.5% 93.7% 6.45% 6.80% yesterday 93.5% 93.4% 6.45% 7.70% today 93.5% 93.2% 6.45% 7.35% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
oIowa Senate
POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election
Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).
An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Iowa Senate
Sep 5, 10:03 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 64.5%, Kalshi 64.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 36.5%, Kalshi 35.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Ashley Hinson 65% · Josh Turek 36%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Ashley Hinson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$119K60.5%Kalshi1.0M contracts · 64%/65%59.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+4.0ppJosh Turek (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$109K39.5%Kalshi1.1M contracts · 35%/36%42.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-3.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa Senate, snapshot Sep 5, 10:03 PM CT. Day Ashley Hinson · Polymarket Ashley Hinson · Kalshi Josh Turek · Polymarket Josh Turek · Kalshi 7 days ago 60.5% 59.0% 39.5% 42.0% 6 days ago 64.0% 59.0% 37.0% 41.0% 5 days ago 64.0% 62.0% 37.0% 39.0% 4 days ago 64.0% 62.0% 36.5% 40.0% 3 days ago 63.5% 63.0% 36.5% 38.0% 2 days ago 64.5% 64.0% 36.5% 37.0% yesterday 64.5% 65.0% 36.5% 35.0% today 64.5% 64.5% 36.5% 35.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
lMaine Senate
POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election
Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).
Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Maine Senate
Sep 5, 10:03 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 69.5%, Kalshi 68.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 31.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Troy Jackson 69% · Susan Collins 31%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Troy Jackson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$740K69.5%Kalshi2.0M contracts · 68%/69%70.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppSusan Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$502K30.5%Kalshi2.7M contracts · 31%/32%31.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Maine Senate, snapshot Sep 5, 10:03 PM CT. Day Troy Jackson · Polymarket Troy Jackson · Kalshi Susan Collins · Polymarket Susan Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 69.5% 70.0% 30.5% 31.0% 6 days ago 69.5% 70.0% 30.5% 31.0% 5 days ago 69.5% 70.0% 30.5% 31.0% 4 days ago 69.5% 70.0% 30.5% 30.0% 3 days ago 69.5% 68.0% 30.5% 32.0% 2 days ago 69.5% 69.0% 30.5% 31.0% yesterday 69.5% 69.0% 30.5% 32.0% today 69.5% 68.5% 30.5% 31.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
pMichigan Senate
POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election
Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan Senate
Sep 5, 10:03 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 64.5%, Kalshi 63.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 33.5%, Kalshi 36.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 64% · Mike Rogers 36%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Abdul El-Sayed (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$364K64.5%Kalshi1.3M contracts · 63%/64%63.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move0.0ppMike Rogers (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$300K35.5%Kalshi1.9M contracts · 36%/37%37.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan Senate, snapshot Sep 5, 10:03 PM CT. Day Abdul El-Sayed · Polymarket Abdul El-Sayed · Kalshi Mike Rogers · Polymarket Mike Rogers · Kalshi 7 days ago 64.5% 63.0% 35.5% 37.0% 6 days ago 64.5% 64.0% 35.5% 37.0% 5 days ago 64.5% 64.0% 35.5% 37.0% 4 days ago 64.5% 63.0% 35.5% 37.0% 3 days ago 64.5% 64.0% 35.0% 37.0% 2 days ago 65.5% 64.0% 33.5% 38.0% yesterday 64.5% 64.0% 33.5% 38.0% today 64.5% 63.5% 33.5% 36.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
wNebraska Senate
POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election
Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Nebraska Senate
Sep 5, 10:03 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 70.0%, Kalshi 70.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 29.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Pete Ricketts 70% · Dan Osborn 30%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Pete Ricketts (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$104K70%Kalshi292K contracts · 70%/71%70%venue gap0.0pp7-day move0.0ppDan Osborn (I)7 days agoPolymarket$29.2K29.5%Kalshi386K contracts · 29%/30%30.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nebraska Senate, snapshot Sep 5, 10:03 PM CT. Day Pete Ricketts · Polymarket Pete Ricketts · Kalshi Dan Osborn · Polymarket Dan Osborn · Kalshi 7 days ago 70.0% 70.0% 29.5% 30.0% 6 days ago 70.5% 70.0% 29.5% 31.0% 5 days ago 68.5% 69.0% 29.5% 30.0% 4 days ago 69.0% 70.0% 31.0% 31.0% 3 days ago 69.0% 70.0% 30.5% 31.0% 2 days ago 69.5% 70.0% 30.5% 30.0% yesterday 70.0% 71.0% 30.5% 30.0% today 70.0% 70.5% 30.5% 29.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
xNew Hampshire Senate
POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election
Chris Pappas (D) leads the unresolved Democratic primary; John E. Sununu (R) leads the unresolved Republican primary.
Neither nomination is official yet, though the market already treats both as decided.
Two markets, one question
New Hampshire Senate
Sep 5, 10:03 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 83.5%, Kalshi 81.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 17.5%, Kalshi 17.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Chris Pappas 82% · John E. Sununu 18%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Chris Pappas (D)*7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$66.6K84.5%Kalshi103K contracts · 81%/82%84.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.0ppJohn E. Sununu (R)*7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$29.6K16%Kalshi211K contracts · 17%/18%18%venue gap2.0pp7-day move+1.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. New Hampshire Senate, snapshot Sep 5, 10:03 PM CT. Day Chris Pappas · Polymarket Chris Pappas · Kalshi John E. Sununu · Polymarket John E. Sununu · Kalshi 7 days ago 84.5% 84.0% 16.0% 18.0% 6 days ago 83.5% 84.0% 16.5% 17.0% 5 days ago 83.5% 83.0% 16.5% 17.0% 4 days ago 82.5% 84.0% 17.5% 18.0% 3 days ago 82.5% 84.0% 17.5% 16.0% 2 days ago 83.5% 83.0% 17.5% 18.0% yesterday 83.5% 81.0% 17.5% 19.0% today 83.5% 81.5% 17.5% 17.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
uNorth Carolina Senate
POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election
Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
North Carolina Senate
Sep 5, 10:03 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.6pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 91.50%, Kalshi 91.25%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 8.50%, Kalshi 9.15%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.6pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Roy Cooper 91% · Michael Whatley 9.1%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Roy Cooper (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$43.1K92.0%Kalshi1.3M contracts · 91%/92%91.1%venue gap0.9pp7-day move-0.5ppMichael Whatley (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$59.8K8.0%Kalshi658K contracts · 8.8%/9.5%9.8%venue gap1.8pp7-day move+0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. North Carolina Senate, snapshot Sep 5, 10:03 PM CT. Day Roy Cooper · Polymarket Roy Cooper · Kalshi Michael Whatley · Polymarket Michael Whatley · Kalshi 7 days ago 92.0% 91.10% 8.0% 9.80% 6 days ago 91.5% 92.50% 8.0% 9.10% 5 days ago 91.5% 91.20% 8.5% 9.20% 4 days ago 91.5% 91.20% 8.5% 9.10% 3 days ago 91.5% 91.10% 8.5% 9.20% 2 days ago 91.5% 91.20% 8.5% 9.00% yesterday 91.5% 91.20% 8.5% 9.50% today 91.5% 91.25% 8.5% 9.15% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
Governors11 of 12
zAlaska governor
POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election
Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).
Wilson holds a commanding lead after losing about four points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Alaska governor
Sep 5, 10:03 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 33.0%, Kalshi 31.5%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 1.3%, Kalshi 0.2%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Bernadette Wilson 33% · Tom Begich 0.6%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Bernadette Wilson (R)7 days agoPolymarket$171K35.5%Kalshi52.0K contracts · 31%/32%37.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-2.5ppTom Begich (D)7 days agoPolymarket$159K1.3%Kalshi233K contracts · 0.1%/0.3%0.1%venue gap1.2pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska governor, snapshot Sep 5, 10:03 PM CT. Day Bernadette Wilson · Polymarket Bernadette Wilson · Kalshi Tom Begich · Polymarket Tom Begich · Kalshi 7 days ago 35.5% 37.0% 1.30% 0.1% 6 days ago 35.5% 36.0% 1.25% 1.0% 5 days ago 35.5% 30.0% 1.25% 0.1% 4 days ago 33.5% 33.0% 1.25% 0.3% 3 days ago 33.0% 31.0% 1.30% 0.3% 2 days ago 33.0% 31.0% 1.30% 0.2% yesterday 33.0% 33.0% 1.30% 0.7% today 33.0% 31.5% 1.30% 0.2% abArizona governor
POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election
Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Arizona governor
Sep 5, 10:03 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 86.5%, Kalshi 86.0%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 13.5%, Kalshi 14.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Katie Hobbs 86% · Andy Biggs 14%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Katie Hobbs (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$31.6K87.5%Kalshi306K contracts · 85%/87%88.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.0ppAndy Biggs (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$36.7K12.5%Kalshi243K contracts · 14%/15%14.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Arizona governor, snapshot Sep 5, 10:03 PM CT. Day Katie Hobbs · Polymarket Katie Hobbs · Kalshi Andy Biggs · Polymarket Andy Biggs · Kalshi 7 days ago 87.5% 88% 12.5% 14.0% 6 days ago 87.5% 88% 12.5% 15.0% 5 days ago 87.5% 88% 12.5% 15.0% 4 days ago 87.5% 88% 12.5% 14.0% 3 days ago 86.5% 87% 13.5% 15.0% 2 days ago 86.5% 87% 13.5% 14.0% yesterday 86.5% 87% 13.5% 14.0% today 86.5% 86% 13.5% 14.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
afFlorida governor
POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election
Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).
Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Florida governor
Sep 5, 10:03 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 81.5%, Kalshi 80.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 19.0%, Kalshi 19.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Byron Donalds 81% · David Jolly 19%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Byron Donalds (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$27.0K81%Kalshi497K contracts · 80%/81%84%venue gap3.0pp7-day move+0.5ppDavid Jolly (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$31.2K19.5%Kalshi294K contracts · 19%/20%17.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Florida governor, snapshot Sep 5, 10:03 PM CT. Day Byron Donalds · Polymarket Byron Donalds · Kalshi David Jolly · Polymarket David Jolly · Kalshi 7 days ago 81.0% 84.0% 19.5% 17.0% 6 days ago 81.5% 81.0% 19.5% 19.0% 5 days ago 81.5% 81.0% 19.0% 20.0% 4 days ago 81.5% 81.0% 19.0% 17.0% 3 days ago 81.5% 81.0% 19.0% 19.0% 2 days ago 81.5% 81.0% 19.0% 20.0% yesterday 81.5% 81.0% 19.0% 20.0% today 81.5% 80.5% 19.0% 19.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
sGeorgia governor
POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).
Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Georgia governor
Sep 5, 10:03 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 58.5%, Kalshi 56.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 40.5%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Keisha Lance Bottoms 57% · Rick Jackson 43%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$33.1K59%Kalshi292K contracts · 56%/57%59%venue gap0.0pp7-day move-0.5ppRick Jackson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$37.7K39%Kalshi383K contracts · 43%/44%41%venue gap2.0pp7-day move+1.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia governor, snapshot Sep 5, 10:03 PM CT. Day Keisha Lance Bottoms · Polymarket Keisha Lance Bottoms · Kalshi Rick Jackson · Polymarket Rick Jackson · Kalshi 7 days ago 59.0% 59.0% 39.0% 41.0% 6 days ago 60.5% 60.0% 38.0% 41.0% 5 days ago 59.0% 60.0% 40.0% 41.0% 4 days ago 58.5% 59.0% 40.5% 41.0% 3 days ago 58.5% 59.0% 40.5% 43.0% 2 days ago 58.5% 58.0% 40.5% 43.0% yesterday 58.5% 57.0% 40.5% 43.0% today 58.5% 56.5% 40.5% 43.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
yIowa governor
POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election
Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Iowa governor
Sep 5, 10:03 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 74.5%, Kalshi 76.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 25.5%, Kalshi 23.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Rob Sand 76% · Zach Lahn 24%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Rob Sand (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$31.2K75.5%Kalshi320K contracts · 76%/77%74.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-1.0ppZach Lahn (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$43.8K24.5%Kalshi300K contracts · 23%/24%26.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa governor, snapshot Sep 5, 10:03 PM CT. Day Rob Sand · Polymarket Rob Sand · Kalshi Zach Lahn · Polymarket Zach Lahn · Kalshi 7 days ago 75.5% 74.0% 24.5% 26.0% 6 days ago 75.5% 77.0% 24.5% 26.0% 5 days ago 76.5% 75.0% 24.5% 27.0% 4 days ago 76.5% 76.0% 24.5% 27.0% 3 days ago 74.5% 76.0% 25.5% 25.0% 2 days ago 74.5% 76.0% 25.5% 24.0% yesterday 74.5% 77.0% 25.5% 23.0% today 74.5% 76.5% 25.5% 23.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
aaMichigan governor
POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election
Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan governor
Sep 5, 10:03 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.4pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 89.50%, Kalshi 89.05%; John James (R): Polymarket 11.00%, Kalshi 10.75%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.4pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jocelyn Benson 89% · John James 11%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jocelyn Benson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$48.4K92%Kalshi73.2K contracts · 88%/90%89%venue gap3.0pp7-day move-2.5ppJohn James (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$154K8%Kalshi130K contracts · 9.5%/12%10%venue gap2.0pp7-day move+3.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan governor, snapshot Sep 5, 10:03 PM CT. Day Jocelyn Benson · Polymarket Jocelyn Benson · Kalshi John James · Polymarket John James · Kalshi 7 days ago 92.0% 89.00% 8.0% 10.00% 6 days ago 92.0% 87.00% 8.0% 15.00% 5 days ago 91.0% 87.00% 8.5% 14.00% 4 days ago 90.5% 90.20% 10.0% 12.00% 3 days ago 90.0% 87.00% 10.5% 14.00% 2 days ago 89.5% 89.00% 11.0% 12.00% yesterday 89.5% 92.20% 11.0% 10.00% today 89.5% 89.05% 11.0% 10.75% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
tNevada governor
POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election
Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).
Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Republican side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Nevada governor
Sep 5, 10:03 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 59%, Kalshi 60%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 40.5%, Kalshi 41.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Joe Lombardo 60% · Aaron Ford 41%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Joe Lombardo (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$66.5K60.5%Kalshi238K contracts · 59%/61%60.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.5ppAaron Ford (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$23.6K40%Kalshi482K contracts · 40%/42%40%venue gap0.0pp7-day move+0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nevada governor, snapshot Sep 5, 10:03 PM CT. Day Joe Lombardo · Polymarket Joe Lombardo · Kalshi Aaron Ford · Polymarket Aaron Ford · Kalshi 7 days ago 60.5% 60% 40.0% 40% 6 days ago 57.0% 60% 40.5% 42% 5 days ago 57.5% 55% 40.5% 42% 4 days ago 57.5% 58% 40.5% 41% 3 days ago 59.0% 61% 41.0% 40% 2 days ago 59.0% 61% 40.5% 41% yesterday 59.0% 60% 40.5% 42% today 59.0% 60% 40.5% 41% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
adNew York governor
POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election
Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
New York governor
Sep 5, 10:03 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.6pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 93.50%, Kalshi 93.15%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 5.5%, Kalshi 8.1%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.6pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Kathy Hochul 93% · Bruce Blakeman 7.9%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Kathy Hochul (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$49.5K94.5%Kalshi293K contracts · 93%/93%94.1%venue gap0.4pp7-day move-1.0ppBruce Blakeman (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$56.5K5.5%Kalshi865K contracts · 7.3%/8.9%6.2%venue gap0.7pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. New York governor, snapshot Sep 5, 10:03 PM CT. Day Kathy Hochul · Polymarket Kathy Hochul · Kalshi Bruce Blakeman · Polymarket Bruce Blakeman · Kalshi 7 days ago 94.5% 94.10% 5.5% 6.2% 6 days ago 94.5% 94.00% 5.5% 6.6% 5 days ago 94.5% 94.10% 5.0% 7.7% 4 days ago 94.5% 94.00% 5.0% 7.5% 3 days ago 94.5% 93.80% 4.5% 5.3% 2 days ago 93.5% 93.80% 4.5% 6.9% yesterday 93.5% 93.90% 5.5% 6.9% today 93.5% 93.15% 5.5% 8.1% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
aePennsylvania governor
POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election
Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Pennsylvania governor
Sep 5, 10:03 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.9pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 97.25%, Kalshi 97.15%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.2%, Kalshi 3.1%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.9pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 3–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Josh Shapiro 97% · Stacy Garrity 3.0%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Josh Shapiro (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$7.5K95.5%Kalshi99.1K contracts · 97%/98%—venue gap—7-day move+1.8ppStacy Garrity (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$41.6K2.25%Kalshi392K contracts · 2.6%/3.6%—venue gap—7-day move-0.1ppEvery sample behind the chart. Pennsylvania governor, snapshot Sep 5, 10:03 PM CT. Day Josh Shapiro · Polymarket Josh Shapiro · Kalshi Stacy Garrity · Polymarket Stacy Garrity · Kalshi 7 days ago 95.50% — 2.25% — 6 days ago 95.50% — 2.30% — 5 days ago 95.50% — 2.30% 4.9% 4 days ago 96.85% — 2.25% 4.3% 3 days ago 97.25% — 2.15% 4.3% 2 days ago 97.10% 96.70% 2.20% 3.8% yesterday 97.25% 97.40% 2.15% 4.9% today 97.25% 97.15% 2.20% 3.1% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
acTexas governor
POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election
Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Texas governor
Sep 5, 10:03 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.6pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 81.9%, Kalshi 82.5%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 18.0%, Kalshi 18.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.6pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Greg Abbott 82% · Gina Hinojosa 18%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Greg Abbott (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$40.7K78.75%Kalshi168K contracts · 82%/83%86.00%venue gap7.3pp7-day move+3.1ppGina Hinojosa (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$51.6K17.5%Kalshi656K contracts · 18%/19%16.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas governor, snapshot Sep 5, 10:03 PM CT. Day Greg Abbott · Polymarket Greg Abbott · Kalshi Gina Hinojosa · Polymarket Gina Hinojosa · Kalshi 7 days ago 78.75% 86.0% 17.5% 16.0% 6 days ago 81.55% 85.0% 19.0% 16.0% 5 days ago 81.75% 85.0% 18.5% 17.0% 4 days ago 81.20% 84.0% 18.5% 18.0% 3 days ago 81.35% 81.0% 17.5% 20.0% 2 days ago 81.45% 82.0% 19.0% 18.0% yesterday 81.95% 83.0% 18.0% 18.0% today 81.90% 82.5% 18.0% 18.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
rWisconsin governor
POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election
David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).
An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Wisconsin governor
Sep 5, 10:03 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 82.5%, Kalshi 79.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 18.0%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: David Crowley 81% · Tom Tiffany 20%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
David Crowley (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$293K81.5%Kalshi450K contracts · 79%/80%79.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+1.0ppTom Tiffany (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$264K19.5%Kalshi469K contracts · 20%/21%21.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-1.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Wisconsin governor, snapshot Sep 5, 10:03 PM CT. Day David Crowley · Polymarket David Crowley · Kalshi Tom Tiffany · Polymarket Tom Tiffany · Kalshi 7 days ago 81.5% 79.0% 19.5% 21.0% 6 days ago 81.5% 80.0% 19.5% 20.0% 5 days ago 82.5% 80.0% 18.5% 19.0% 4 days ago 82.5% 78.0% 18.5% 21.0% 3 days ago 82.5% 80.0% 18.0% 21.0% 2 days ago 82.5% 80.0% 18.0% 20.0% yesterday 82.5% 79.0% 18.0% 20.0% today 82.5% 79.5% 18.0% 20.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
Also in elections2
iJudge makes her block on Trump's mail-voting order a preliminary injunction as North Carolina mails ballots
PBS NEWSHOUR: Judge makes her block on Trump's mail-voting order a preliminary injunction as North Carolina mails ballots
U.S. District Judge Indira Talwani barred the Postal Service from carrying out Trump's order restricting mail voting, turning her temporary order into a preliminary injunction. It came as North Carolina became the first state to mail 2026 general-election ballots. The administration said it will appeal to the 1st Circuit. It had already asked the Supreme Court to lift the earlier order.
[PREVIOUSLY]
Sep. 5 — Talwani first blocked the Postal Service from implementing Trump's order limiting mail voting in the midterms. The administration asked the Supreme Court to lift it.
- Nearly one-third of U.S. voters typically cast mail ballots.
- Talwani wrote that states must mail millions of ballots on a fixed schedule and "are unable to pivot this late in the election cycle."
- The Supreme Court request targeting the earlier order is still pending.
The administration will appeal to the 1st Circuit while its Supreme Court request is still pending.
jAfD is projected to take more than 40% in the Sept. 6 Saxony-Anhalt state election
FINANCIAL TIMES: AfD is projected to take more than 40% in the Sept. 6 Saxony-Anhalt state election
Polls put Alternative for Germany above 40% in the eastern state before the Sept. 6 vote. A win would make it the first far-right party to take a German state election since 1945. Protesters marched against the party in the days before the ballot.
A win would be the first by a far-right party in a German state election since World War II.
“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Sep 5, 10:03 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.