News news1 story
Ongoing3 earlier updates14 days
This story has run 4 times over 14 days, starting Aug 26.
- USPS violated a court order to finalize Trump’s mail-ballot rule; judge allows publication
- Judge clears Trump’s USPS mail-ballot rule; 24 states and D.C. sue hours later
- UpdateMissouri asks the Supreme Court to reinstate its 7-1 congressional map three days before the ballot deadline
- Kavanaugh leaves Missouri's 6-2 map in place; hours later a federal judge orders the state to run the 7-1 map — this issue
Judge Stephen Clark's order landed at 4:58 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 8 — seven minutes before Missouri's ballot-change cutoff — and runs 14 days, to about Sept. 22.
The denial. Justice Brett Kavanaugh on Tuesday, Sept. 8, denied Missouri Republicans' emergency request to revive a new congressional map that would flip a Kansas City-area seat. He wrote one sentence, gave no reasoning, and did not refer the case to the full Court — leaving the Missouri Supreme Court's order to use the old 2022 map, which splits the delegation 6-2 Republican, intact. The new map, HB 1, would make it 7-1.
The countermand. Hours later, U.S. District Judge Stephen Clark ordered the opposite: a temporary restraining order requiring Missouri to keep using HB 1 for the Nov. 3 election.
The reaction. Trump called the state court ruling "horrible, ridiculous, and unConstitutional." CBS News described the result as "a federal-election-administration disaster," and The Hill wrote that "widespread voter confusion would inevitably follow." ([TS]Boone and Polk county clerks told the state court the voter file already carries both maps: "just pick which one.")
What next. Missouri election officials must finalize ballots by Sept. 19, eleven days after the dueling rulings and six and a half weeks before the election.
Catch up
- Sept. 6 — Missouri asked the U.S. Supreme Court to reinstate the 7-1 map, with Kavanaugh giving opponents until Monday, Sept. 7 to respond.
- August — Missouri held its primary under the new HB 1 lines, which reassigned voters in 28 counties.
- Summer 2026 — The Missouri Supreme Court held the map never took effect and ordered the 2022 lines used in November.
- Dec. 2025 — Referendum organizers filed signatures against the new map, automatically suspending it under state law.
- A challenge to congressional district lines normally goes before a three-judge panel; Clark sat alone.
Related reading
The referendum that suspended HB 1 in December 2025 is certified to the Nov. 3 ballot as Proposition A, so whichever map prints this fall, voters decide whether HB 1 survives the rest of the decade.
Quick bites15
Houthi missiles and drones hit 4 Saudi cities, wounding 73 and halting Aramco's 400,000-barrel-a-day Jazan refinery
FOX NEWSIran warDozens of missiles and drones hit four Saudi cities Tuesday, wounding 73 people, Fox News reported. The strikes on Jazan, Najran, Abha and Khamis Mushait briefly halted work at Aramco sites. The Saudi-led coalition blamed Houthi forces and vowed to strike back at what it called "a dangerous escalation."
- 73 people wounded across the four cities; severity not reported
- Jazan refinery processes about 400,000 barrels of crude a day
- No group had claimed the attack as of Tuesday
Iran says it seized a US sea drone in Hormuz; CENTCOM says it malfunctioned a day earlier
REUTERSIran warThe Revolutionary Guard called it one of the most modern smart submarines in the American arsenal, while US Central Command said the defective older model carried no classified sonar, radar or sensitive data.
About that photo:
- Iranian state TV illustrated the capture with a photo that has circulated online since 2024 and shows a location in San Diego.
Ongoing17
This story has run 18 times over 48 days, starting Jul 23.
- Trump Threatens to Bomb Iranian Bridges and Power Plants for Every Ship Hit in Strait of Hormuz
- Iran fires multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. base in Jordan; all are intercepted
- Iran denies Trump’s claim that new U.S. talks would start Monday
- Cargo ship is struck in the Strait of Hormuz
- Vance says the Iran talks are moving, then calls the war only half over
- Iran won't reopen Hormuz until the US unfreezes its assets and lifts the blockade
- Trump threatens to bomb Oman, the U.S. ally brokering the deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
- Trump declares an "economic D-Day" on Iran as Hormuz traffic runs 85% below normal
- UpdateU.S. goes nearly a month without large Iran strikes as Trump shifts back to sanctions; Hormuz remains closed
- U.S. destroys two Iranian rocket launchers loaded to mine the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at bases in Jordan, all intercepted
- UpdateU.S. bombs two Iranian rocket sites near the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at Jordan
- UpdateU.S. forces struck IRGC air-defense, radar, maritime and mine-laying sites on Iran's southern coast starting at noon on Sept. 1
- UpdateU.S. hits about 100 Iranian targets; Iran fires back at American bases in four countries, and a cruise missile kills 4 at a wedding
- Reuters weapons experts say a US munition made a direct hit on the Iranian wedding house that killed 5
- US destroys or disables 3 Iranian oil tankers after Iran fired ballistic missiles at a US carrier and destroyer
- UpdateIran says it hit an unmanned US vessel a day after the tanker strikes; Central Command calls the claim "a total lie"
- UpdateIran says it will declare a restricted zone near the Strait of Hormuz and will strike threats "even before" they are carried out
- Iran says it seized a US sea drone in Hormuz; CENTCOM says it malfunctioned a day earlier — this issue
Mamdani posts 170,000 pages of post-9/11 air records, says the city lied about safe air
TIMEThe portal settles a lawsuit by 9/11 Health Watch. It draws partly on 68 boxes of Department of Environmental Protection records found in a city office in 2025, after earlier records requests had missed them.
The numbers
- 170,000 pages went live Tuesday on a new public portal.
- October 2001 Harding memo warned of mass toxic-exposure claims — BBC and Washington Examiner put it at 35,000, TIME at 10,000.
- More people have died of 9/11-related illnesses than were killed in the attacks.
Trump says firefighters carried him out of a shaking building at Ground Zero; he was at Trump Tower that day
PBS NEWSHOURTrump said he sent a crew of construction workers to Ground Zero and that One Liberty Plaza still creaks. The building reopened undamaged in under two months. Asked for proof, the White House gave none and attacked the coverage.
- Trump was at Trump Tower, miles from the World Trade Center, when the towers were hit
- One Liberty Plaza reopened with no structural damage in less than two months
Trump posthumously awards the Medal of Freedom to Welles Crowther, who saved up to 18 people on 9/11
PBS NEWSHOURThe White House Ellipse tribute Tuesday displayed a 21-foot, roughly 17,000-pound steel beam from the World Trade Center's South Tower, where Crowther died.
Also at the event
- Crowther, known as the man in the red bandanna, guided survivors down from the South Tower before it collapsed.
- Trump also announced a new Coast Guard cutter named for Jeffrey Palazzo, an NYC firefighter and Coast Guard reservist killed in the attacks.
Mamdani will attend Friday's 9/11 ceremony despite a 101,000-signature petition asking him not to
THE HILLFormer Mayor Rudy Giuliani, 9/11 families and first responders gathered at City Hall to demand Mamdani skip the event. They cited a petition with 101,000 signatures per Fox News and nearly 100,000 per ABC News. Neither outlet says who organized it or where the signers live. Gov. Kathy Hochul (Gov-D New York) said Mamdani should be there.
Russia resumed strikes on Kyiv after the truce, killing 7; Trump and Putin then talked for an hour
PBS NEWSHOURUpdateRussia-Ukraine warThe account of the one-hour call comes from the Kremlin, which described it as "constructive and quite frank"; no U.S. readout has confirmed it. It followed the Witkoff-Kushner talks in Moscow and Kyiv, which set no date and no terms for the next round.
Ongoing10
This story has run 11 times over 14 days, starting Aug 26.
- CIA chief Ratcliffe makes rare Moscow visit
- CIA chief reportedly warned Moscow against a limited Russian attack on NATO
- CIA chief secretly met Russian intelligence officials in Moscow
- UpdateCIA chief told Moscow to end the Ukraine war before Russia’s military and economy worsen
- Russian drone hits ammunition depot near Kyiv, killing 38; four remain missing
- Russia's finance minister returned to the G20 in person for the first time since the Ukraine invasion
- Witkoff and Kushner meet Putin in Moscow Sept. 5, Zelensky in Kyiv Sept. 6, carrying a U.S. proposal to end the war
- UpdatePutin orders 72-hour halt to strikes on Kyiv while Witkoff and Kushner visit, after a three-hour Kremlin meeting
- UpdateWitkoff and Kushner hold first Kyiv talks of the war, agreeing on next steps but no terms; announcement promised in weeks
- UpdateWitkoff says Moscow-Kyiv trip produced 'substantive progress' on scheduling more talks, with no date set and no terms disclosed
- UpdateRussia resumed strikes on Kyiv after the truce, killing 7; Trump and Putin then talked for an hour — this issue
Ukraine is buying about 1,000 Patriot interceptors with an EU loan, but most arrive years from now
REUTERSRussia-Ukraine warBecause the contracted missiles are years out, Kyiv asked partners for interceptors from existing stockpiles now, and Germany agreed to ship PAC-2 interceptors from its own stocks immediately.
The numbers
- Ukraine still reports a defense budget shortfall this year
- Germany's transfer is PAC-2 interceptors, pulled from current Bundeswehr stocks
Smithsonian secretary Lonnie Bunch will retire by year's end, 11 days after Interior threatened its funding
THE ATLANTICBunch, the Smithsonian's first Black leader and its secretary since 2019, is leaving after 38 years at the institution, following an Aug. 28 Interior Department letter that threatened to cut federal support over what it called ideological activism.
- 38 years at the Smithsonian, 7 of them as secretary
- Founding director of the National Museum of African American History and Culture
- Aug. 28, 2026: Interior letter threatens the institution's federal money
Book says UAE's bin Zayed warned Netanyahu of a coming Hamas attack 10 days before Oct. 7
THE NEW YORKERGaza and HamasUAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and talked for 45 minutes. He warned that Yahya Sinwar was planning something big. Israeli reporters Shlomi Eldar and Ruth Yuval report the call. Netanyahu's office calls that account "an absolute lie." The UAE foreign ministry did not deny the call. It said only that the two countries share intelligence when needed.
What the reporting rests on
- Authors cite three independent sources plus a recording and documents of the call.
- Netanyahu's office: he "did not speak with the president of the United Arab Emirates during the relevant period."
- No second outlet has independently confirmed the call.
Trump orders Canadian goods stripped from $50 billion in federal contract schedules
REUTERSTrump on Tuesday ordered the General Services Administration to drop Canadian-made goods from its main buying lists. He gave the US Trade Representative the same order. Those lists buy more than $50 billion a year. The goods stay out until Canada gives US firms "full and fair reciprocity." Canada's retaliatory tariffs began the same day.
- Announced on Truth Social: "From now on, NO RECIPROCITY, NO ACCESS!"
- Comes a day after Trump threatened to ban Bombardier jet sales in the US
Ongoing8
This story has run 9 times over 20 days, starting Aug 20.
- Trump pauses 50% Canada tariff two hours before it hits, buying three days
- Trump imposed 50% tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian goods and threatened the same rate on autos and steel
- Canada tariffs nearly $20 billion in U.S. goods to match Trump’s 50% levies
- Trump calls it a rejection of all Canadian imports; the enacted 50% tariffs cover about 5%
- Trade talks with Canada collapse, leaving 50% U.S. tariffs on $27.6 billion of Canadian goods
- UpdateCanada tariffs $20B of U.S. goods Sept. 8; U.S. trade rep says no talks underway
- UpdateCanada's 50% tariffs on $27.6B of U.S. goods start Tuesday, Sept. 8
- UpdateCanada's 15%-50% tariffs on $20 billion of U.S. goods took effect just after midnight Tuesday, Sept. 8
- Trump orders Canadian goods stripped from $50 billion in federal contract schedules — this issue
Trump administration asks Supreme Court to unblock the SAVE database for checking voter rolls
WASHINGTON POSTCourts and the adminis…The Trump administration asked the Supreme Court for emergency permission to let states use its expanded SAVE database to check voter rolls. The system, which verifies immigration status, now includes Social Security records. A district court blocked the expansion in June, and an appeals court upheld that block last week. Solicitor General D. John Sauer called the order "indefensible" and a threat to "the integrity of upcoming elections."
Ongoing1
This story has run 2 times over 8 days, starting Sep 1.
- Trump administration asks Supreme Court to discharge 29 transgender troops before their January 2027 trial
- Trump administration asks Supreme Court to unblock the SAVE database for checking voter rolls — this issue
Pappas leads NH Senate primary 62%-36%; Sununu leads GOP side 70%-25%
NBC NEWS2026 midtermsChris Pappas (Rep-D New Hampshire) led democratic-socialist Karishma Manzur 62%-36% with about a fifth of the vote counted, and Trump-endorsed former John Sununu (Sen-R New Hampshire) led former Sen. Scott Brown 70%-25% with about a sixth counted. The winners will run for the seat retiring Jeanne Shaheen (Sen-D New Hampshire) is leaving.
- Pappas led 62%-36% with about a fifth of the vote counted.
- Sununu led 70%-25% with about a sixth counted.
- Neither race had been called at the time of these counts.
Trump says German immigration rules drove the AfD's Saxony-Anhalt win
REUTERSUpdateImmigration enforcementTrump credited Germany's immigration rules for the far-right AfD's win in the Saxony-Anhalt state election, days after the vote. Reuters reported no German government response to the claim.
Sept. 6 — The AfD was projected to finish first in the Saxony-Anhalt state election.
Ayotte and Warmington win their primaries, setting the New Hampshire governor's race
NBC NEWSGov. Kelly Ayotte (Gov-R New Hampshire) cleared her Republican primary Tuesday and will face Democrat Cinde Warmington (D-NH), who ran unopposed, in a November race Cook rates lean Republican.
- New Hampshire and Vermont are the only two states where a Republican governor is seeking reelection in a state Harris won in 2024.
- Ayotte has outraised Warmington and leads in public polling.
Elections22 races
The midterms · 55 days out · November 3, 2026
D or R take the House / Senate?
today · 7-day panel
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 87%, Kalshi 85%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 53%, Kalshi 48%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.
No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only
How to read thisthe contract, the key, and the week panel
Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.
- two venues, priced separately
- shaded = how far apart they are
- 50% — control flips here
- where it stood 7 days ago
- the last 7 days, on its own scale
- week panel: one line a party
The week panel draws one line per party, crossing where control does. Only the Democratic line is a traded price: the Republicanline is its arithmetic complement, the same mirror the bar’s other half is, and not a second market agreeing with the first. The shading around each line is how far apart the two venues are.
Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.
The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 2.0pp gap / 5.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.
Who is defending the House and the Senate is sourced, not remembered — House, 2026-07-23 issue: the NDAA passed “216-212, with six Democrats joining a unified Republican majority.”; Senate, 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.”
Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
| Day | U.S. House · Polymarket | U.S. House · Kalshi | U.S. Senate · Polymarket | U.S. Senate · Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days ago | 90% | 85% | 52% | 48% |
| 6 days ago | 89% | 85% | 52% | 48% |
| 5 days ago | 88% | 85% | 52% | 48% |
| 4 days ago | 88% | 85% | 52% | 48% |
| 3 days ago | 87% | 85% | 52% | 47% |
| 2 days ago | 87% | 85% | 53% | 48% |
| yesterday | 87% | 85% | 53% | 47% |
| today | 87% | 85% | 53% | 48% |
The 3 closest of 22 races. Open one, or all of them — every race is on the page either way.
rTexas Senate
POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election
Ken Paxton (R) faces James Talarico (D).
A dead heat — the two sides are priced within three points of each other.
Two markets, one question
Texas Senate
Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas Senate. Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 50.5%, Kalshi 52.5%; James Talarico (D): Polymarket 50.5%, Kalshi 47.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Ken Paxton 52% · James Talarico 48%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Ken Paxton (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$561K49.5%Kalshi6.1M contracts · 52%/53%51.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+1.0ppJames Talarico (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$466K50.5%Kalshi4.5M contracts · 47%/48%50.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas Senate, snapshot Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT. Day Ken Paxton · Polymarket Ken Paxton · Kalshi James Talarico · Polymarket James Talarico · Kalshi 7 days ago 49.5% 51.0% 50.5% 50.0% 6 days ago 49.5% 53.0% 50.5% 48.0% 5 days ago 49.5% 52.0% 50.5% 49.0% 4 days ago 50.5% 53.0% 50.5% 49.0% 3 days ago 50.5% 51.0% 50.5% 49.0% 2 days ago 50.5% 51.0% 50.5% 49.0% yesterday 50.5% 52.0% 50.5% 47.0% today 50.5% 52.5% 50.5% 47.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
vOhio Senate
POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election
Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).
A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Ohio Senate
Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 56.5%, Kalshi 53.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 43.5%, Kalshi 46.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Sherrod Brown 54% · Jon Husted 46%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Sherrod Brown (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$132K55.5%Kalshi1.1M contracts · 53%/54%54.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+1.0ppJon Husted (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$89.5K44.5%Kalshi1.5M contracts · 46%/47%47.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio Senate, snapshot Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT. Day Sherrod Brown · Polymarket Sherrod Brown · Kalshi Jon Husted · Polymarket Jon Husted · Kalshi 7 days ago 55.5% 54.0% 44.5% 47.0% 6 days ago 55.5% 54.0% 43.5% 48.0% 5 days ago 55.5% 53.0% 43.5% 48.0% 4 days ago 55.5% 54.0% 43.5% 47.0% 3 days ago 56.5% 53.0% 43.5% 47.0% 2 days ago 56.5% 54.0% 43.5% 47.0% yesterday 56.5% 54.0% 43.5% 48.0% today 56.5% 53.5% 43.5% 46.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
pOhio governor
POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election
Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).
Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Ohio governor
Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 55.5%, Kalshi 55.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 43.5%, Kalshi 46.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Amy Acton 56% · Vivek Ramaswamy 46%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Amy Acton (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$89.5K54.5%Kalshi749K contracts · 55%/56%58.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move+1.0ppVivek Ramaswamy (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$103K45.5%Kalshi809K contracts · 46%/47%42.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move-2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio governor, snapshot Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT. Day Amy Acton · Polymarket Amy Acton · Kalshi Vivek Ramaswamy · Polymarket Vivek Ramaswamy · Kalshi 7 days ago 54.5% 58.0% 45.5% 42.0% 6 days ago 55.5% 57.0% 44.5% 44.0% 5 days ago 56.0% 57.0% 43.5% 44.0% 4 days ago 56.5% 58.0% 43.5% 43.0% 3 days ago 56.5% 57.0% 43.0% 43.0% 2 days ago 55.5% 59.0% 43.5% 43.0% yesterday 55.5% 57.0% 43.5% 45.0% today 55.5% 55.5% 43.5% 46.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
The other 19 races
Senate8 of 10
sAlaska Senate
POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election
Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).
A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Alaska Senate
Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 63.5%, Kalshi 65.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 37.5%, Kalshi 36.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 6–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Mary Peltola 64% · Dan Sullivan 37%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Mary Peltola (D)7 days agoPolymarket$244K63.5%Kalshi85.0K contracts · 65%/66%67.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move0.0ppDan Sullivan (R)7 days agoPolymarket$139K36.5%Kalshi74.1K contracts · 35%/37%—venue gap—7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska Senate, snapshot Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT. Day Mary Peltola · Polymarket Mary Peltola · Kalshi Dan Sullivan · Polymarket Dan Sullivan · Kalshi 7 days ago 63.5% 67.0% 36.5% — 6 days ago 63.5% 65.0% 36.5% — 5 days ago 63.5% 67.0% 36.5% 34% 4 days ago 63.5% 66.0% 36.5% 33% 3 days ago 63.5% 66.0% 36.5% 32% 2 days ago 63.5% 65.0% 37.5% 36% yesterday 63.5% 66.0% 37.5% 37% today 63.5% 65.5% 37.5% 36% aaGeorgia Senate
POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election
Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia Senate
Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.8pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 93.5%, Kalshi 92.7%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 6.8%, Kalshi 7.3%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.8pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jon Ossoff 93% · Mike Collins 7.3%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jon Ossoff (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$50.9K93.5%Kalshi357K contracts · 92%/93%93.4%venue gap0.1pp7-day move0.0ppMike Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$76.7K6.4%Kalshi869K contracts · 6.9%/7.7%7.4%venue gap1.0pp7-day move+0.4ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia Senate, snapshot Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT. Day Jon Ossoff · Polymarket Jon Ossoff · Kalshi Mike Collins · Polymarket Mike Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 93.5% 93.4% 6.40% 7.4% 6 days ago 93.5% 93.6% 6.40% 7.4% 5 days ago 93.5% 93.7% 6.45% 6.8% 4 days ago 93.5% 93.4% 7.25% 7.7% 3 days ago 92.0% 93.4% 7.70% 7.8% 2 days ago 93.5% 92.2% 6.80% 7.9% yesterday 93.5% 93.4% 6.80% 6.9% today 93.5% 92.7% 6.80% 7.3% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
tIowa Senate
POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election
Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).
An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Iowa Senate
Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 65.5%, Kalshi 65.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 34.5%, Kalshi 36.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Ashley Hinson 66% · Josh Turek 36%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Ashley Hinson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$123K64%Kalshi1.0M contracts · 65%/66%62%venue gap2.0pp7-day move+1.5ppJosh Turek (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$112K36.5%Kalshi1.1M contracts · 36%/37%40.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move-2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa Senate, snapshot Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT. Day Ashley Hinson · Polymarket Ashley Hinson · Kalshi Josh Turek · Polymarket Josh Turek · Kalshi 7 days ago 64.0% 62.0% 36.5% 40.0% 6 days ago 63.5% 63.0% 36.5% 38.0% 5 days ago 64.5% 64.0% 36.5% 37.0% 4 days ago 64.5% 65.0% 35.5% 35.0% 3 days ago 65.5% 65.0% 35.0% 36.0% 2 days ago 65.5% 65.0% 34.5% 37.0% yesterday 65.5% 65.0% 34.5% 36.0% today 65.5% 65.5% 34.5% 36.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
qMaine Senate
POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election
Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).
Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Maine Senate
Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT
widest venue gap 5.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 72.5%, Kalshi 67.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 28.5%, Kalshi 31.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 5.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Troy Jackson 69% · Susan Collins 31%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Troy Jackson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$764K69.5%Kalshi2.0M contracts · 67%/68%70.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+3.0ppSusan Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$520K30.5%Kalshi2.7M contracts · 31%/32%30.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Maine Senate, snapshot Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT. Day Troy Jackson · Polymarket Troy Jackson · Kalshi Susan Collins · Polymarket Susan Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 69.5% 70.0% 30.5% 30.0% 6 days ago 69.5% 68.0% 30.5% 32.0% 5 days ago 69.5% 69.0% 30.5% 31.0% 4 days ago 69.5% 69.0% 30.5% 32.0% 3 days ago 70.5% 69.0% 29.5% 32.0% 2 days ago 72.5% 69.0% 28.5% 32.0% yesterday 72.5% 68.0% 28.5% 32.0% today 72.5% 67.5% 28.5% 31.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
uMichigan Senate
POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election
Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan Senate
Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 65.5%, Kalshi 63.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 34.5%, Kalshi 36.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 64% · Mike Rogers 36%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Abdul El-Sayed (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$367K64.5%Kalshi1.3M contracts · 63%/64%63.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+1.0ppMike Rogers (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$306K35.5%Kalshi1.9M contracts · 36%/37%37.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan Senate, snapshot Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT. Day Abdul El-Sayed · Polymarket Abdul El-Sayed · Kalshi Mike Rogers · Polymarket Mike Rogers · Kalshi 7 days ago 64.5% 63.0% 35.5% 37.0% 6 days ago 64.5% 64.0% 35.0% 37.0% 5 days ago 65.5% 64.0% 33.5% 38.0% 4 days ago 65.5% 64.0% 33.5% 38.0% 3 days ago 65.5% 64.0% 34.0% 37.0% 2 days ago 65.5% 64.0% 34.5% 36.0% yesterday 65.5% 64.0% 34.5% 36.0% today 65.5% 63.5% 34.5% 36.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
abNebraska Senate
POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election
Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Nebraska Senate
Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT
widest venue gap 5.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 68.5%, Kalshi 73.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 31.5%, Kalshi 26.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 5.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Pete Ricketts 72% · Dan Osborn 26%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Pete Ricketts (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$106K69%Kalshi323K contracts · 73%/74%70%venue gap1.0pp7-day move-0.5ppDan Osborn (I)7 days agoPolymarket$31.8K31%Kalshi413K contracts · 25%/27%31%venue gap0.0pp7-day move+0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nebraska Senate, snapshot Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT. Day Pete Ricketts · Polymarket Pete Ricketts · Kalshi Dan Osborn · Polymarket Dan Osborn · Kalshi 7 days ago 69.0% 70.0% 31.0% 31% 6 days ago 69.0% 70.0% 30.5% 31% 5 days ago 69.5% 70.0% 30.5% 30% 4 days ago 69.5% 71.0% 30.5% 30% 3 days ago 68.5% 71.0% 31.5% 29% 2 days ago 68.5% 71.0% 31.5% 29% yesterday 68.5% 71.0% 31.5% 29% today 68.5% 73.5% 31.5% 26% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
acNew Hampshire Senate
POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election
Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
New Hampshire Senate
Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 81.5%, Kalshi 82.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 18.5%, Kalshi 18.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Chris Pappas 82% · John E. Sununu 19%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Chris Pappas (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$67.7K82.5%Kalshi114K contracts · 82%/83%84.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-1.0ppJohn E. Sununu (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$31.3K17.5%Kalshi232K contracts · 18%/19%18.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. New Hampshire Senate, snapshot Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT. Day Chris Pappas · Polymarket Chris Pappas · Kalshi John E. Sununu · Polymarket John E. Sununu · Kalshi 7 days ago 82.5% 84.0% 17.5% 18.0% 6 days ago 82.5% 84.0% 17.5% 16.0% 5 days ago 83.5% 83.0% 17.5% 18.0% 4 days ago 83.5% 81.0% 17.5% 19.0% 3 days ago 82.5% 82.0% 17.5% 18.0% 2 days ago 82.0% 83.0% 18.5% 19.0% yesterday 81.5% 83.0% 18.5% 19.0% today 81.5% 82.5% 18.5% 18.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
zNorth Carolina Senate
POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election
Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
North Carolina Senate
Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.9pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 91.50%, Kalshi 91.15%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 8.50%, Kalshi 9.45%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.9pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Roy Cooper 91% · Michael Whatley 9.4%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Roy Cooper (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$43.1K91.5%Kalshi1.3M contracts · 91%/91%91.2%venue gap0.3pp7-day move0.0ppMichael Whatley (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$59.9K8.5%Kalshi684K contracts · 9.2%/9.7%9.1%venue gap0.6pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. North Carolina Senate, snapshot Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT. Day Roy Cooper · Polymarket Roy Cooper · Kalshi Michael Whatley · Polymarket Michael Whatley · Kalshi 7 days ago 91.5% 91.20% 8.5% 9.10% 6 days ago 91.5% 91.10% 8.5% 9.20% 5 days ago 91.5% 91.20% 8.5% 9.00% 4 days ago 91.5% 91.20% 8.5% 9.50% 3 days ago 91.5% 91.50% 8.5% 9.50% 2 days ago 91.5% 91.10% 8.5% 9.30% yesterday 91.5% 91.00% 8.5% 9.20% today 91.5% 91.15% 8.5% 9.45% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
Governors11 of 12
aeAlaska governor
POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election
Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).
Wilson holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Alaska governor
Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 28.5%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 1.35%, Kalshi 0.20%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Bernadette Wilson 30% · Tom Begich 0.7%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Bernadette Wilson (R)7 days agoPolymarket$172K33.5%Kalshi52.1K contracts · 27%/30%30.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move-3.0ppTom Begich (D)7 days agoPolymarket$159K1.25%Kalshi233K contracts · 0.1%/0.3%—venue gap—7-day move+0.1ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska governor, snapshot Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT. Day Bernadette Wilson · Polymarket Bernadette Wilson · Kalshi Tom Begich · Polymarket Tom Begich · Kalshi 7 days ago 33.5% 30.0% 1.25% — 6 days ago 33.0% 33.0% 1.30% 0.1% 5 days ago 33.0% 31.0% 1.30% 0.3% 4 days ago 33.0% 31.0% 1.30% 0.3% 3 days ago 32.5% 33.0% 1.35% 0.2% 2 days ago 29.5% 31.0% 1.35% 0.7% yesterday 30.5% 30.0% 1.35% 0.1% today 30.5% 28.5% 1.35% 0.2% agArizona governor
POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election
Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Arizona governor
Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 86.5%, Kalshi 86.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 13.5%, Kalshi 14.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Katie Hobbs 87% · Andy Biggs 14%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Katie Hobbs (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$31.6K87.5%Kalshi307K contracts · 86%/87%88.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.0ppAndy Biggs (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$36.7K12.5%Kalshi244K contracts · 13%/15%14.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Arizona governor, snapshot Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT. Day Katie Hobbs · Polymarket Katie Hobbs · Kalshi Andy Biggs · Polymarket Andy Biggs · Kalshi 7 days ago 87.5% 88.0% 12.5% 14% 6 days ago 86.5% 87.0% 13.5% 15% 5 days ago 86.5% 87.0% 13.5% 14% 4 days ago 86.5% 87.0% 13.5% 14% 3 days ago 86.5% 87.0% 13.5% 15% 2 days ago 86.5% 87.0% 13.5% 15% yesterday 86.5% 87.0% 13.5% 13% today 86.5% 86.5% 13.5% 14% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
akFlorida governor
POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election
Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).
Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Florida governor
Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 81.5%, Kalshi 81.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 18.5%, Kalshi 17.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Byron Donalds 82% · David Jolly 18%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Byron Donalds (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$27.1K81.5%Kalshi514K contracts · 81%/82%81.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppDavid Jolly (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$31.2K19%Kalshi308K contracts · 17%/18%17%venue gap2.0pp7-day move-0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Florida governor, snapshot Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT. Day Byron Donalds · Polymarket Byron Donalds · Kalshi David Jolly · Polymarket David Jolly · Kalshi 7 days ago 81.5% 81.0% 19.0% 17.0% 6 days ago 81.5% 81.0% 19.0% 19.0% 5 days ago 81.5% 81.0% 19.0% 20.0% 4 days ago 81.5% 81.0% 19.0% 20.0% 3 days ago 81.5% 80.0% 19.0% 20.0% 2 days ago 81.5% 81.0% 18.5% 19.0% yesterday 81.5% 81.0% 18.5% 19.0% today 81.5% 81.5% 18.5% 17.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
xGeorgia governor
POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).
Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Georgia governor
Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 56.0%, Kalshi 56.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 43.0%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Keisha Lance Bottoms 56% · Rick Jackson 43%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$35.5K58.5%Kalshi295K contracts · 56%/57%59.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-2.5ppRick Jackson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$40.0K40.5%Kalshi389K contracts · 43%/44%41.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+2.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia governor, snapshot Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT. Day Keisha Lance Bottoms · Polymarket Keisha Lance Bottoms · Kalshi Rick Jackson · Polymarket Rick Jackson · Kalshi 7 days ago 58.5% 59.0% 40.5% 41.0% 6 days ago 58.5% 59.0% 40.5% 43.0% 5 days ago 58.5% 58.0% 40.5% 43.0% 4 days ago 57.5% 57.0% 42.5% 43.0% 3 days ago 57.0% 56.0% 42.5% 44.0% 2 days ago 56.0% 57.0% 43.5% 44.0% yesterday 56.0% 57.0% 43.0% 43.0% today 56.0% 56.5% 43.0% 43.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
adIowa governor
POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election
Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Iowa governor
Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 75.0%, Kalshi 76.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 24.0%, Kalshi 23.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Rob Sand 76% · Zach Lahn 24%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Rob Sand (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$33.7K76.5%Kalshi325K contracts · 76%/77%76.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.5ppZach Lahn (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$44.9K24.5%Kalshi304K contracts · 23%/24%27.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa governor, snapshot Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT. Day Rob Sand · Polymarket Rob Sand · Kalshi Zach Lahn · Polymarket Zach Lahn · Kalshi 7 days ago 76.5% 76.0% 24.5% 27.0% 6 days ago 74.5% 76.0% 25.5% 25.0% 5 days ago 74.5% 76.0% 25.5% 24.0% 4 days ago 74.5% 77.0% 25.5% 23.0% 3 days ago 74.5% 76.0% 25.5% 23.0% 2 days ago 74.5% 76.0% 25.0% 24.0% yesterday 75.0% 76.0% 24.5% 24.0% today 75.0% 76.5% 24.0% 23.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
afMichigan governor
POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election
Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan governor
Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 92.5%, Kalshi 89.0%; John James (R): Polymarket 8.50%, Kalshi 10.55%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jocelyn Benson 90% · John James 9.4%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jocelyn Benson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$49.0K90.5%Kalshi73.3K contracts · 88%/90%90.2%venue gap0.3pp7-day move+2.0ppJohn James (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$155K10%Kalshi130K contracts · 9.1%/12%12%venue gap2.0pp7-day move-1.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan governor, snapshot Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT. Day Jocelyn Benson · Polymarket Jocelyn Benson · Kalshi John James · Polymarket John James · Kalshi 7 days ago 90.5% 90.2% 10.0% 12.00% 6 days ago 90.0% 87.0% 10.5% 14.00% 5 days ago 89.5% 89.0% 11.0% 12.00% 4 days ago 90.0% 92.2% 11.0% 10.00% 3 days ago 89.5% 90.1% 11.0% 12.00% 2 days ago 90.0% 88.0% 11.0% 12.00% yesterday 92.5% 90.0% 8.5% 12.00% today 92.5% 89.0% 8.5% 10.55% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
yNevada governor
POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election
Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).
Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Republican side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Nevada governor
Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 59.5%, Kalshi 60.5%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 40.5%, Kalshi 40.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Joe Lombardo 60% · Aaron Ford 41%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Joe Lombardo (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$81.4K57.5%Kalshi242K contracts · 60%/61%58.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+2.0ppAaron Ford (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$30.3K40.5%Kalshi483K contracts · 40%/41%—venue gap—7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nevada governor, snapshot Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT. Day Joe Lombardo · Polymarket Joe Lombardo · Kalshi Aaron Ford · Polymarket Aaron Ford · Kalshi 7 days ago 57.5% 58.0% 40.5% — 6 days ago 59.0% 61.0% 41.0% 41.0% 5 days ago 59.0% 61.0% 40.5% 40.0% 4 days ago 60.5% 60.0% 39.5% 41.0% 3 days ago 58.5% 61.0% 39.5% 42.0% 2 days ago 60.5% 61.0% 39.0% 42.0% yesterday 59.5% 61.0% 40.5% 41.0% today 59.5% 60.5% 40.5% 40.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
aiNew York governor
POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election
Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
New York governor
Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT
widest venue gap 4.3pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 93.50%, Kalshi 92.15%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 4.50%, Kalshi 8.75%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.3pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Kathy Hochul 92% · Bruce Blakeman 8.5%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Kathy Hochul (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$49.7K94.5%Kalshi314K contracts · 92%/92%94.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.0ppBruce Blakeman (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$57.1K5.0%Kalshi925K contracts · 8.1%/9.4%7.5%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. New York governor, snapshot Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT. Day Kathy Hochul · Polymarket Kathy Hochul · Kalshi Bruce Blakeman · Polymarket Bruce Blakeman · Kalshi 7 days ago 94.5% 94.00% 5.0% 7.50% 6 days ago 94.5% 93.80% 4.5% 5.30% 5 days ago 93.5% 93.80% 4.5% 6.90% 4 days ago 93.5% 93.90% 5.0% 6.90% 3 days ago 94.5% 93.20% 5.0% 8.90% 2 days ago 93.5% 93.10% 5.5% 7.80% yesterday 93.5% 93.20% 5.5% 9.60% today 93.5% 92.15% 4.5% 8.75% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
ajPennsylvania governor
POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election
Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Pennsylvania governor
Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 96.85%, Kalshi 97.15%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 1.85%, Kalshi 3.35%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 5–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Josh Shapiro 97% · Stacy Garrity 3.2%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Josh Shapiro (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$7.5K96.85%Kalshi99.1K contracts · 97%/98%—venue gap—7-day move0.0ppStacy Garrity (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$41.7K2.25%Kalshi392K contracts · 2.6%/4.1%—venue gap—7-day move-0.4ppEvery sample behind the chart. Pennsylvania governor, snapshot Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT. Day Josh Shapiro · Polymarket Josh Shapiro · Kalshi Stacy Garrity · Polymarket Stacy Garrity · Kalshi 7 days ago 96.85% — 2.25% — 6 days ago 97.25% — 2.15% — 5 days ago 97.10% — 2.20% 3.80% 4 days ago 96.75% 96.70% 2.20% 4.90% 3 days ago 96.65% 97.40% 2.15% 2.60% 2 days ago 96.80% 97.50% 1.85% 4.30% yesterday 96.85% 97.50% 1.85% 4.00% today 96.85% 97.15% 1.85% 3.35% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
ahTexas governor
POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election
Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Texas governor
Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.4pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 82.1%, Kalshi 83.5%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 18.0%, Kalshi 17.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.4pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Greg Abbott 83% · Gina Hinojosa 18%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Greg Abbott (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$40.7K81.2%Kalshi173K contracts · 83%/84%84.0%venue gap2.8pp7-day move+0.9ppGina Hinojosa (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$52.1K18.5%Kalshi663K contracts · 17%/18%18.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas governor, snapshot Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT. Day Greg Abbott · Polymarket Greg Abbott · Kalshi Gina Hinojosa · Polymarket Gina Hinojosa · Kalshi 7 days ago 81.20% 84.0% 18.5% 18.0% 6 days ago 81.35% 81.0% 17.5% 20.0% 5 days ago 81.45% 82.0% 19.0% 18.0% 4 days ago 81.20% 83.0% 18.5% 18.0% 3 days ago 82.10% 83.0% 18.0% 19.0% 2 days ago 81.90% 80.0% 18.0% 21.0% yesterday 82.15% 84.0% 18.0% 18.0% today 82.10% 83.5% 18.0% 17.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
wWisconsin governor
POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election
David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).
An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Wisconsin governor
Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 83.5%, Kalshi 80.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 17.5%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: David Crowley 82% · Tom Tiffany 19%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
David Crowley (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$310K82.5%Kalshi453K contracts · 80%/81%78.0%venue gap4.5pp7-day move+1.0ppTom Tiffany (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$267K18.5%Kalshi484K contracts · 20%/21%21.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Wisconsin governor, snapshot Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT. Day David Crowley · Polymarket David Crowley · Kalshi Tom Tiffany · Polymarket Tom Tiffany · Kalshi 7 days ago 82.5% 78.0% 18.5% 21.0% 6 days ago 82.5% 80.0% 18.0% 21.0% 5 days ago 82.5% 80.0% 18.0% 20.0% 4 days ago 82.5% 79.0% 17.5% 20.0% 3 days ago 82.5% 79.0% 17.5% 20.0% 2 days ago 83.5% 79.0% 17.5% 21.0% yesterday 83.5% 80.0% 17.5% 20.0% today 83.5% 80.5% 17.5% 20.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.
Not news news3 stories
The family offered to pay their own way out to Türkiye; DHS refused and countered with a removal order plus continued detention.
The detention. Maryam Tahmasebi, her husband Eissa Seyed Hashemi and their teenage son — all lawful permanent residents of California — have been in immigration detention since April 2026, roughly five months as of Monday, Sept. 8, 2026. ([TS]ICE's average detention stay is 52 days in FY2026; this is about 150) None of the three has a criminal record or an immigration violation. Maryam had a citizenship application pending.
The charge. The government charged them under a 1990 clause of the Immigration and Nationality Act that lets the Secretary of State declare a noncitizen deportable when their presence would cause serious adverse foreign policy consequences. The reason given is Eissa's mother, Masoumeh Ebtekar, who was the spokesperson for the students who seized the U.S. embassy in Tehran in 1979 — decades before Eissa or his son were born. Marco Rubio, who as Secretary of State signs these determinations, posted his rationale publicly: "America can never become home for anti-American terrorists or their families."
The conditions. Maryam and her son are held at the Dilley facility in Texas; Eissa is in a separate facility about twenty minutes away, seeing them for a few minutes every couple of weeks, with medical treatment delayed.
"Our detention from day one was indefinite. Like a life prison sentence for a crime you didn't commit."Maryam Tahmasebi
Still open. A federal judge has temporarily barred their removal while habeas petitions proceed; two immigration judges are hearing the family's cases separately, and no merits ruling has come.
- No signed Rubio memo in this case has surfaced, and court filings allege no act, statement or belief by Maryam herself
Related reading
Judge Michael Farbiarz ruled in June 2025 that Khalil would likely win his claim that the foreign-policy removal ground was unconstitutional as applied to him, and blocked his removal or detention on that basis. Khalil had spent 104 days in detention; the judge left the government free to pursue unrelated grounds, such as omissions in his green-card application.
The advisory's three "immediate actions" are addressed to American companies — verify subscribers, degrade suspected copying queries, share detection data — and Trump meets Xi on Sept. 24.
The alert. Three U.S. security agencies — the FBI, the National Security Agency and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency — issued a joint alert on Tuesday, Sept. 8. It accuses six Chinese AI companies of copying American AI models since 2024: DeepSeek, Moonshot AI, Alibaba, MiniMax, StepFun and Z.AI. The agencies said the effort likely ran with Chinese government awareness. They did not allege that Chinese intelligence services ran it.
The method. The technical term is "distilling." It means querying a rival's finished model over and over and training your own on its answers, so you buy the output instead of the years of research behind it.
The Google report. Separately on the same day, Google reported that a Chinese state-linked group it has tracked since 2023 is installing open-source AI models on hijacked third-party cloud networks — a way to query AI without leaving a trail at a commercial provider — while hitting North American academic, medical and military research targets. ([TS]Google's own report says it has not seen a fully automated hacking campaign yet)
Where it stands. The advisory, AA26-251A, carries no sanction, no Entity List designation (the Commerce Department's trade blacklist, which blocks U.S. exports to a named firm), no export rule, no prosecution referral and no deadline. Neither OpenAI nor Anthropic has sued any of the six, so no court has tested the copying claim.
Two of the six were already blacklisted before this alert
- Zhipu AI, parent of Z.AI, went on the Commerce Entity List in January 2025, in a batch of 25 Chinese companies — the first Chinese large-model firm named.
- Alibaba went on the Pentagon's Section 1260H list of Chinese military companies on June 8, 2026, in a batch of 65 that took the list to 188 names; from June 30, 2026 the Department of War cannot sign or renew contracts with it, a purchasing ban rather than a trade ban.
- DeepSeek was left out of that June 2026 batch. Prediction market Polymarket puts it at 29.5% to be added by June 30, 2027.
The share of American teens below the OECD's functional-literacy floor is now 26%, up seven points since 2015.
The drop. American 15-year-olds scored 490 in reading on the 2025 PISA exam (the international test given to 15-year-olds every three years since 2000). That is 14 points below their 2022 result and 15 below 2018 — the first real break in a quarter-century of flat US reading.
The other subjects. Math and science did not move enough to count as a change.
The ranking. The US still sits above the average of OECD countries in reading and science, and its rank rose to 13th in both. That is because scores elsewhere fell faster. Across the OECD, reading is down 28 points and math 22 over the past decade.
The three subject scores, US against the OECD average:
- Reading
- 490 vs. 461
- Science
- 490 vs. 461
- Math
- 463 vs. 463
Still open. The OECD flagged the US sample for incomplete school response rates, meaning bias in the American results cannot be ruled out. It applied that caution to only one other country, Albania.
What the widening US spread and the data flags show
- Gap between US students at the 90th and 10th percentiles in reading, widening since 2015: 50 points — the largest spread of any country tested
- US students reaching the top reading level (Level 5 or above): 13%, against an OECD average of 6%
- US test-takers who skipped the background questionnaire, blocking any race or income breakdown: more than 40%