News news3 stories
Developing Asian nations face a $7 billion gas bill as the U.S.-Iran war takes a fifth of global LNG (liquefied natural gas) supply offline.
Saudi Arabia shut its East-West pipeline on Sunday, Sept. 13 after drone hits, closing the bypass route that moved Saudi oil to the Red Sea around the Strait of Hormuz during the U.S.-Iran war. Oil rose more than $3 a barrel after the shutdown and fresh strikes near Hormuz, Reuters reported.
The outage puts roughly 4% of world oil supply at risk. Diesel hit a record as refiners run near their limits; Bloomberg put the LNG lost to the war at a fifth of world supply.
How we got here
- Sept. 3 — U.S. drones hit two Iranian tankers under a "tanker for tanker" policy while the Navy escorted a 40-ship convoy through Hormuz, after two Filipino sailors were killed on the Saudi tanker Sidr.
- Sept. 13 — Drones launched from Iraq hit the Saudi East-West line, forcing its closure.
BackgroundWhat the East-West shutdown takes offline
- East-West line normally moves 5 million barrels a day and can surge to 7 million; oil through Hormuz ran 21 million barrels a day in early 2026 (Kpler).
- U.S. distillate (diesel-type fuel) stocks are forecast below 100 million barrels and below the 2021-2025 five-year range through 2026 and most of 2027 (EIA); the week ending Sept. 4 held 28.6 days of supply.
- U.S. diesel refining margin (the gap between oil cost and diesel price) hit a record $108.02 a barrel intraday, about $2.57 a gallon; EIA expects it above $2 a gallon from August through November.
Related reading
At Doonbeg on Sunday, Sept. 13, Donald Trump said Volodymyr Zelenskyy (President, Ukraine) "has to stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia" — "that's hurting the world," not the Middle East. Overnight into Sunday, Ukraine hit two Russian refineries including the Slavyansk plant; a drone strike on Nizhnekamsk, Tatarstan killed two and injured 14. More than two-thirds of Russia's 34 major refineries have been hit since early April, per Le Monde's Aug. 11 count.
Russia banned diesel exports in July after rationing. U.S. diesel averaged a record above $6 a gallon on Friday, Sept. 11 (PBS NewsHour); the EIA retail series, which lags by days, had $5.97 on Sept. 7. CNBC puts the Hormuz outage at 1.2 million barrels a day and Russia's at 800,000.
Ongoing20 earlier updates53 days
This story has run 21 times over 53 days, starting Jul 23.
- Trump Threatens to Bomb Iranian Bridges and Power Plants for Every Ship Hit in Strait of Hormuz
- Iran fires multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. base in Jordan; all are intercepted
- Iran denies Trump’s claim that new U.S. talks would start Monday
- Cargo ship is struck in the Strait of Hormuz
- Vance says the Iran talks are moving, then calls the war only half over
- Iran won't reopen Hormuz until the US unfreezes its assets and lifts the blockade
- Trump threatens to bomb Oman, the U.S. ally brokering the deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
- Trump declares an "economic D-Day" on Iran as Hormuz traffic runs 85% below normal
- UpdateU.S. goes nearly a month without large Iran strikes as Trump shifts back to sanctions; Hormuz remains closed
- U.S. destroys two Iranian rocket launchers loaded to mine the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at bases in Jordan, all intercepted
- UpdateU.S. bombs two Iranian rocket sites near the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at Jordan
- UpdateU.S. forces struck IRGC air-defense, radar, maritime and mine-laying sites on Iran's southern coast starting at noon on Sept. 1
- UpdateU.S. hits about 100 Iranian targets; Iran fires back at American bases in four countries, and a cruise missile kills 4 at a wedding
- Reuters weapons experts say a US munition made a direct hit on the Iranian wedding house that killed 5
- US destroys or disables 3 Iranian oil tankers after Iran fired ballistic missiles at a US carrier and destroyer
- UpdateIran says it hit an unmanned US vessel a day after the tanker strikes; Central Command calls the claim "a total lie"
- UpdateIran says it will declare a restricted zone near the Strait of Hormuz and will strike threats "even before" they are carried out
- Iran says it seized a US sea drone in Hormuz; CENTCOM says it malfunctioned a day earlier
- UpdateIran fires 20 missiles at a US base in Jordan; Jordan says it intercepted 18
- UpdateNavy plans to keep 2 carrier groups near Iran at least through 2026
- UpdateUnidentified projectile hits Iranian container ship off Hengam Island, killing 1 and wounding 4 — this issue
Trump said 'I don't want to say' and smirked when asked if the U.S. did it; the Qeshm governor blamed a 'terrorist enemy' without naming the U.S.
An unidentified projectile hit an Iranian container ship near Hengam Island in the Strait of Hormuz early Sunday, Sept. 13, killing one crew member and wounding four, Iranian state media reported. UK Maritime Trade Operations confirmed that a projectile hit a vessel, causing a severe fire, and that local authorities evacuated those aboard, according to the Washington Examiner. Hengam lies 1.2 miles south of Qeshm Island, The Hill reported; Qeshm is 14 miles from the port city of Bandar Abbas, according to PBS NewsHour.
Catch up
- Feb. 28 — U.S. and Israel began striking Iran; the war spread to Gulf states and shut Hormuz to normal traffic.
- Aug. 18–20 — As a 60-day talks window expired, Trump threatened Oman and sanctions on Iran's helpers; only 10 to 12 ships a day crossed.
- Aug. 29 — U.S. had launched no large strike in nearly a month; 18 Americans were dead and 750-plus wounded.
- Aug. 31–Sept. 1 — U.S. destroyed two mine-laying launchers on Larak, killing two; Iran fired eight missiles at Jordan, all intercepted; Brent passed $90.
- Sept. 1–3 — U.S. hit about 100 coastal targets; Iran struck U.S. bases in four countries and counted 18 dead including five at a wedding.
- Sept. 5–6 — After Iran fired at two warships hurting no one, U.S. destroyed three tankers under a three-for-two rule.
- Sept. 7 — Iran claimed it hit an unmanned U.S. vessel; CENTCOM called it a lie and said its tanker strikes killed no one.
- Sept. 8 — Iran said it would declare a restricted zone near Hormuz and doubled gasoline prices for its heaviest 15%.
- Sept. 9 — Iran said it seized a U.S. sea drone in Hormuz; CENTCOM said the drone malfunctioned a day earlier.
19 earlier issues
- Trump Threatens to Bomb Iranian Bridges and Power Plants for Every Ship Hit in Strait of Hormuz
- Iran fires multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. base in Jordan; all are intercepted
- Iran denies Trump’s claim that new U.S. talks would start Monday
- Cargo ship is struck in the Strait of Hormuz
- Vance says the Iran talks are moving, then calls the war only half over
- Iran won't reopen Hormuz until the US unfreezes its assets and lifts the blockade
- Trump threatens to bomb Oman, the U.S. ally brokering the deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
- Trump declares an "economic D-Day" on Iran as Hormuz traffic runs 85% below normal
- UpdateU.S. goes nearly a month without large Iran strikes as Trump shifts back to sanctions; Hormuz remains closed
- U.S. destroys two Iranian rocket launchers loaded to mine the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at bases in Jordan, all intercepted
- UpdateU.S. bombs two Iranian rocket sites near the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at Jordan
- UpdateU.S. forces struck IRGC air-defense, radar, maritime and mine-laying sites on Iran's southern coast starting at noon on Sept. 1
- UpdateU.S. hits about 100 Iranian targets; Iran fires back at American bases in four countries, and a cruise missile kills 4 at a wedding
- Reuters weapons experts say a US munition made a direct hit on the Iranian wedding house that killed 5
- US destroys or disables 3 Iranian oil tankers after Iran fired ballistic missiles at a US carrier and destroyer
- UpdateIran says it hit an unmanned US vessel a day after the tanker strikes; Central Command calls the claim "a total lie"
- UpdateIran says it will declare a restricted zone near the Strait of Hormuz and will strike threats "even before" they are carried out
- Iran says it seized a US sea drone in Hormuz; CENTCOM says it malfunctioned a day earlier
- UpdateIran fires 20 missiles at a US base in Jordan; Jordan says it intercepted 18
Why no claim of responsibility stands out
- U.S. Central Command named hulls within a day for its Sept. 5 strikes on Downy, Stark 1 and Kylo; it has issued no release for this strike.
- UKMTO's 'unknown projectile' wording is standard formula — it used near-identical language for an Aug. 18 incident — and Sunday's alert assigned no responsibility.
Ongoing1 earlier update3 days
This story has run 2 times over 3 days, starting Sep 11.
- CNN: More than 100 US advisers support Saudi campaign against Houthis
- UpdateHouthis claim new missile and drone strikes on Saudi Arabia after taking Perim Island in offensive that killed more than 1,500 soldiers — this issue
Houthis claim new missile and drone strikes on Saudi Arabia after taking Perim Island in offensive that killed more than 1,500 soldiers
Iran-backed Houthi fighters claimed new missile and drone strikes on Saudi Arabia on Sunday, Sept. 13. Saudi civil defense said a projectile fell in al-Tawwal governorate near the Yemen border, wounding two people and damaging a mosque and other buildings. Sultan al-Arada of Yemen's ruling presidential council called the collapse at Mokha "painful and regrettable" and said forces are regrouping; the UN warns of renewed catastrophe.
Catch up
- Sept. 11 — Houthi forces captured Mokha, 46 miles from the Bab el-Mandeb strait.
- Sept. 12 — The Houthis said they took Perim Island, completing a month-long offensive along Yemen's west coast that killed more than 1,500 soldiers, Fox News reported.
- Sept. 13 — Monitors recorded no new shipping halts; retreating forces abandoned U.S.-made armored vehicles and artillery along the coast.
Perim sits in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the waterway between Yemen and Djibouti — 18 miles wide there, the island under 2 miles off Yemen, splitting traffic into two lanes (TWZ, Fox News).
The island holds a 1.85 km runway and three hangars built in February–May 2021 in UAE-linked construction (TWZ, Fox News). The runway's condition is unknown, and the Houthis have no manned aircraft to use it (TWZ, Fox News).
Yemen's earlier civil war killed 150,000 people before the 2022 ceasefire (NBC News) — the scale officials fear resuming.
Oil through the strait fell to 4.1 million barrels a day in 2024 from 9.3 million in 2023 (EIA); through Hormuz it ran 21 million a day in early 2026 (Kpler). EIA's tables put LNG through the strait at zero for 2024, down from 4.2 billion cubic feet a day in 2023.
The chokepointMap
A month-long offensive reached the strait
Houthi forces took Mokha on Sept. 11 and said they took Perim Island the next day, completing a coastal offensive that killed more than 1,500 soldiers. Perim sits inside the Bab el-Mandeb — the 18-mile waterway between Yemen and Djibouti that every Suez-bound ship has to pass.
A globe centred on the Bab el-Mandeb strait between Yemen and the Horn of Africa, marking Mokha and Perim Island — reported captured by Houthi forces — beside the shipping lane through the strait. Places marked: Bab el-Mandeb; Perim Island; Mokha; Djibouti. Drawn across the map: Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb — standing feature of the geography. Figures: oil through the strait in 2024 — down from 9.3 million in 2023, 4.1m barrels a day; wide between Yemen and Djibouti; Perim sits under 2 miles off Yemen, 18 miles; runway on Perim, built in 2021; the Houthis have no manned aircraft to use it, 1.85 km; soldiers killed in the month-long coastal offensive, 1,500+.
Route through the geography
What this map shows, as data
| Place | Role | Position | What the reporting says | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bab el-Mandeb | Chokepoint | 12.58°N, 43.33°E | 18 miles wide between Yemen and Djibouti, with Perim splitting traffic into two lanes. Everything sailing between the Suez Canal and the Indian Ocean passes it. | Wikidata Q83318, Bab-el-Mandeb |
| Perim Island | Reported struck | 12.66°N, 43.42°E | The Houthis said they took the island on Sept. 12. It holds a 1.85 km runway and three hangars built in 2021 in UAE-linked construction; the runway's condition is unknown and the Houthis have no manned aircraft. | Wikidata Q1160017, Perim |
| Mokha | Reported struck | 13.32°N, 43.25°E | Houthi forces captured the port on Sept. 11, 46 miles from the strait. Yemen's presidential council called the collapse 'painful and regrettable.' | Wikidata Q339258, Mokha |
| Djibouti | Place | 11.60°N, 43.15°E | The African shore of the chokepoint. | Wikidata Q3604, Djibouti |
| Drawn | Kind | Status | What the reporting says | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb | Route | Standing feature of the geography | Ships between the Suez Canal and the Indian Ocean pass the strait; there is no other sea route. | U.S. Energy Information Administration — World Oil Transit Chokepoints |
| Figure | Value | Detail | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| oil through the strait in 2024 — down from 9.3 million in 2023 | 4.1m barrels a day | — | U.S. Energy Information Administration — World Oil Transit Chokepoints |
| wide between Yemen and Djibouti; Perim sits under 2 miles off Yemen | 18 miles | — | Fox News: Houthis enter U.S. 'kill box' after seizing Red Sea cork |
| runway on Perim, built in 2021; the Houthis have no manned aircraft to use it | 1.85 km | — | Fox News: Houthis enter U.S. 'kill box' after seizing Red Sea cork |
| soldiers killed in the month-long coastal offensive | 1,500+ | — | Fox News: Houthis enter U.S. 'kill box' after seizing Red Sea cork |
Where every coordinate came from
- Coordinates: Wikidata Q83318 (Bab-el-Mandeb), 12.58°N 43.33°E.
- Coordinates: Wikidata Q1160017 (Perim), 12.66°N 43.42°E.
- Coordinates: Wikidata Q339258 (Mokha), 13.32°N 43.25°E.
- Coordinates: Wikidata Q3604 (Djibouti), 11.60°N 43.15°E.
- Drawn between open water in the Gulf of Aden and the southern Red Sea through the strait's published centre.
Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration — World Oil Transit Chokepoints · Fox News: Houthis enter U.S. 'kill box' after seizing Red Sea cork · Wikidata Q83318, Bab-el-Mandeb · Wikidata Q1160017, Perim · Wikidata Q339258, Mokha · Wikidata Q3604, Djibouti · Natural Earth (public domain)
Quick bites14
Trump rejects AI slowdown, says US must not cede AI lead to China
PBS NEWSHOURUpdateSpeaking in Ireland a day after the heads of Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI and Google DeepMind backed a slowdown, Trump blamed "negative forces" for the warnings and named no guardrails he would support.
Catch up
On Sept. 12, three House Democrats urged Speaker Mike Johnson (Rep-R Louisiana) to keep the House in session until it passed AI safeguards; Johnson declined to schedule votes, citing industry talks planned for early winter.
4 earlier issues
- U.S. sanctions nearly 60 Iranian targets and threatens countries that keep trading with Tehran
- China rejects Trump’s threat to sanction Iran’s trading partners
- Bessent says new Iran sanctions will land every week, with another bank next
- Sanctioned Russian finance minister attended a US-hosted G20 and met Bessent, then was left out of the group photo
The rest of the AI fight on the Sunday shows
- Johnson rejected an emergency AI moratorium, citing China: "We cannot put a moratorium on this because China will overlap us." (Fox News)
- He proposed a meeting with Trump, lawmakers and AI leaders, and said he would recall the House for a vote only "if we had a solution."
- Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries (Rep-D New York) made AI the high priority for the caucus meeting Tuesday, Sept. 15: "We should take decisive action now." (ABC News)
- Spencer Cox (Gov-R Utah) broke with Johnson, saying the federal government should play "a much bigger role" and calling Congress's response embarrassing. (CBS News)
- 70% of registered voters oppose AI data centers in their communities, per a July Fox News poll.
- Xi Jinping (President, China) is due at the White House later in September; PBS NewsHour reports AI is likely on the agenda.
Ongoing5
This story has run 6 times over 20 days, starting Aug 25.
- U.S. sanctions nearly 60 Iranian targets and threatens countries that keep trading with Tehran
- China rejects Trump’s threat to sanction Iran’s trading partners
- Bessent says new Iran sanctions will land every week, with another bank next
- Sanctioned Russian finance minister attended a US-hosted G20 and met Bessent, then was left out of the group photo
- Energy Secretary Wright says an Iran nuclear deal may wait for a 'next administration' in Tehran
- UpdateTrump rejects AI slowdown, says US must not cede AI lead to China — this issue
Obama told Democrats to center their agenda on AI
NBC NEWSAt a closed-door DCCC fundraiser at the New-York Historical Society on Thursday, Sept. 10, he pressed Hakeem Jeffries (Rep-D New York) for a public framework on safety, kids and job loss once Democrats hold the House.
- Obama called himself neither an "accelerationist" nor a "doomer" at the Sept. 10 fundraiser.
- He pressed Democrats on job displacement: "Where is that going to hit? How are we going to respond? What is that going to mean for our social safety net?" (Politico)
Two US airmen downed by Iranian missile on April 2 were rescued, one after two days
CBS NEWSIran war60 Minutes aired newly declassified footage and the first interview with one of the officers on Sunday, Sept. 13. Their $30 million F-15E was downed by a roughly $100,000 shoulder-fired missile during a strike on drone and missile plants south of Isfahan.
- Alpha was recovered 8 hours after ejecting by a 21-aircraft daylight mission.
- Bravo hit the ground 5 miles away at 70-100 mph with a damaged parachute, broke his back, arm and shoulder, then climbed a 7,000-foot ridge and evaded capture for 2 days.
- The US had flown about 13,000 missions to that point, with 18 service members killed five weeks into the war.
Pentagon orders defense industry to wartime footing after US fired thousands of missiles in Iran war
THE HILLIran warThe Pentagon has ordered the defense industry onto a "wartime footing" to rebuild stockpiles after the U.S. fired thousands of long-range precision-guided missiles in the war's early days, CBS News reported — an effort it reports will cost billions of dollars and take years of manufacturing. The Iran war is in its seventh month.
Centcom commander Adm. Brad Cooper, the officer running the Iran war, told 60 Minutes he is "not concerned at all" about U.S. munitions inventories.
- The drawdown raises the prospect of too few high-tech weapons to sustain a war against a peer military such as China, per CBS News.
US bans Canadian alcohol, dairy and vehicle imports after 50% tariffs
THE NEW YORK TIMESTariffs and tradeThe U.S. has banned imports of Canadian alcoholic beverages, dairy and motor-vehicle products outright — what economist Justin Wolfers calls the economic equivalent of an infinite tariff — through five presidential proclamations with no congressional vote. The bans stack on the 50% tariffs already on hundreds of Canadian goods.
Canada matched dollar-for-dollar with tariffs on $20 billion in U.S. imports, a fraction of the $762.10 billion in total 2024 trade, per Census Bureau data.
- Wolfers argues Canada's consumer boycott may already be costing the U.S. more than the tariffs themselves.
- Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed puts the trade war's cost to the average Michigan family at $5,600 a year. (CBS News)
Ongoing10
This story has run 11 times over 25 days, starting Aug 20.
- Trump pauses 50% Canada tariff two hours before it hits, buying three days
- Trump imposed 50% tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian goods and threatened the same rate on autos and steel
- Canada tariffs nearly $20 billion in U.S. goods to match Trump’s 50% levies
- Trump calls it a rejection of all Canadian imports; the enacted 50% tariffs cover about 5%
- Trade talks with Canada collapse, leaving 50% U.S. tariffs on $27.6 billion of Canadian goods
- UpdateCanada tariffs $20B of U.S. goods Sept. 8; U.S. trade rep says no talks underway
- UpdateCanada's 50% tariffs on $27.6B of U.S. goods start Tuesday, Sept. 8
- UpdateCanada's 15%-50% tariffs on $20 billion of U.S. goods took effect just after midnight Tuesday, Sept. 8
- Trump orders Canadian goods stripped from $50 billion in federal contract schedules
- UpdateTrump bans select Canadian dairy, alcohol and motorcycle imports starting Sept. 29.
- US bans Canadian alcohol, dairy and vehicle imports after 50% tariffs — this issue
Carney seeks EU associate-member status for Canada after US trade talks collapse
REUTERSMark Carney (Prime Minister, Canada) is pushing the idea after U.S.-Canada trade talks collapsed, the Wall Street Journal reported. The status has no defined form. He meets European leaders this week and wants a Canadian role in the EU's Ukraine loan effort — part of a push to cut dependence on the U.S.
Unvaccinated 40-year-old Pennsylvania woman dies of measles complications, third death tied to outbreak
THE GUARDIANAn unvaccinated 40-year-old woman died of measles complications in Pennsylvania on Saturday, Sept. 12, Jefferson County Coroner Greg Furlong said — the state's third measles death this year and its first adult, after two infant deaths. Pennsylvania has confirmed 676 cases across 37 counties with 124 hospitalized; the national count passed 3,000, the most since 1991.
- Lancaster County, an outbreak center, has 87.6% two-dose kindergarten MMR coverage, against the roughly 95% herd-immunity threshold; Pennsylvania overall sits at 92.7%.
- Pennsylvania has not requested a CDC Epi-Aid outbreak team despite repeated offers, CDC Director Erica Schwartz said; CDC's site listed zero 2026 deaths as of Sept. 11, before hers.
Ongoing2
This story has run 3 times over 17 days, starting Aug 28.
- Pennsylvania reports 2 measles-associated deaths, its first in 35 years, as coroner disputes infant case
- CDC leaves two Pennsylvania measles deaths out of its national count
- Unvaccinated 40-year-old Pennsylvania woman dies of measles complications, third death tied to outbreak — this issue
Brokers offered to secure Trump pardon for $300,000 on hidden camera
Jack Burkman and Jacob Wohl pitched Ammon Covino a Trump pardon. He taped them on hidden CBS cameras as they saw a grant as soon as October after Justice denied him in July; pardon lobbying is legal.
Trump threatens trade cutoff with some nations unless Fed lowers rates despite 3.4% inflation
BLOOMBERGInflation and the FedTrump said he would cut off all trade with "some nations" unless the Fed lowers rates. NEC director Kevin Hassett downplayed the threat on CNN, saying he does not expect trade "to go to zero." The White House will back whatever Fed chair Kevin Warsh and the board decide Wednesday, Sept. 16, he said.
Annual inflation held at 3.4% in data published Friday, Sept. 11, above the Fed's 2% target for more than five years (The Guardian). August's increase was energy-led: gasoline rose 27.4% from a year earlier. Core inflation eased to 2.4% (BLS).
The details
- Trump wrote this month the US should have the "LOWEST RATE of any country in the World" and the Fed Board must "BE PATRIOTS."
- Warsh was sworn in as Fed chair in May 2026 at a White House ceremony where Trump told him to be "totally independent."
Ongoing1
This story has run 2 times over 2 days, starting Sep 12.
- Consumer prices rose 0.4% in August and 3.4% over the year, lifting September Fed rate hike odds above 80%
- Trump threatens trade cutoff with some nations unless Fed lowers rates despite 3.4% inflation — this issue
Johnson says $5,000 checks need Congress; Trump says they'll happen '100%'
NBC NEWSUpdateHouse Speaker Mike Johnson (Rep-R Louisiana) said Sunday, Sept. 13 that the checks need Congress to act. Hours later, Trump said from Ireland they will happen "100%." Asked why not send them now, while Republicans hold Congress, Trump said Democrats would leave the country "in shambles."
Sep. 13 — Trump promised $5,000 per adult if Republicans hold Congress, with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick floating $5 million visa fees as the fourth pay-for in two days and no funding enacted.
Cost and condition
- $5,000 would go to every American adult only if Republicans hold the House and Senate.
- Total cost tops $1 trillion against a nearly $1.8 trillion annual deficit.
Supreme Court blocks Missouri redraw, leaving 2022 House map favoring GOP in 6 of 8 districts
FOX NEWSUpdateCourts and the adminis…The state ran its August primary under the blocked lines. AP estimates more than 1 million voters — nearly a fourth of the electorate — could land in a different district in November than in August.
Sept. 13 — The Supreme Court's brief order gave no reasoning. The blocked map had been drawn to give Republicans a path to 7 of 8 House seats, up from 6.
Tom Tiffany (Rep-R Wisconsin) and pilot escape sinking plane in Lake Wausau
FOX NEWSTiffany, the Trump-endorsed GOP nominee for Wisconsin governor, and pilot Leonard Boltz escaped after losing power on approach to Wausau airport just before 9 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 12 and were rescued by airboat at 9:05 p.m.
- Tiffany needed 12 stitches for a gash above his right eye and Boltz four; both were released from the hospital.
- He faces David Crowley (D-WI) for governor on Nov. 3, 2026.
- The FAA and NTSB are investigating the loss of power.
CBS model puts Democrats at 228 House seats, a majority, on 54-46 generic ballot lead
THE HILLDemocrats need 218 seats for a House majority, with the range running from 215, where Republicans hold it, to the high 230s.
Cornyn, Abbott denounce Texas GOP nominee Bo French for calling Asian American students a problem
TEXAS TRIBUNEBo French (R-TX) posted photos of South Asian students celebrating Texas's upset win over top-ranked Ohio State, writing Americans had been 'displaced by foreigners.'
The rebuke and the race
- Cornyn and Abbott condemned the posts, as did House Speaker Dustin Burrows and state Reps. Lacey Hull and Jared Patterson.
- Attorney General Ken Paxton declined to condemn French and accused James Talarico (D-TX), his Democratic opponent, of racism instead.
- French, a former Tarrant County GOP chair, is the nominee for Texas Railroad Commissioner, which regulates oil and gas. He faces Jon Rosenthal (St Rep-D Texas) in November.
Russian jet drone hits Kyiv-Warsaw train locomotive 1.2 miles from Polish border, hurting no one
BBC NEWS2026 midtermsBBC NEWS: Russian jet drone hits Kyiv-Warsaw train locomotive 1.2 miles from Polish border, hurting no one
A Russian jet-propelled drone hit the locomotive of a Kyiv-to-Warsaw passenger train at Yahodyn station on Sunday, Sept. 13, 1.2 miles from Poland. The operator detected the drone and evacuated the train 15 minutes before impact; no one was hurt. A diplomatic train carrying Boris Johnson and UK national security adviser Jonathan Powell had left minutes earlier. Former CIA director David Petraeus was on another train at the station.
- Poland's Donald Tusk counted 13 drone strikes near the border that night, including a filling-station fire that hurt two drivers. More than 600 people were evacuated from two crossings.
- The railway counted 72 Russian attacks on its infrastructure in August-November 2025, then 127 from December to mid-May 2026 (Kyiv Independent). Cumulative damage through the first quarter: 209 locomotives, 239 carriages, 86 bridges, 50 stations.
Elections22 races
The midterms · 50 days out · November 3, 2026
D or R take the House / Senate?
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 88%, Kalshi 86%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 53%, Kalshi 49%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.
No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only
Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.
- two venues, priced separately
- shaded = how far apart they are
- 50% — control flips here
- where it stood 7 days ago
- the last 7 days, on its own scale
- week panel: one line a party
The week panel draws one line per party, crossing where control does. Only the Democratic line is a traded price: the Republicanline is its arithmetic complement, the same mirror the bar’s other half is, and not a second market agreeing with the first. The shading around each line is how far apart the two venues are.
Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.
The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 2.0pp gap / 4.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.
Who is defending the House and the Senate is sourced, not remembered — House, 2026-07-23 issue: the NDAA passed “216-212, with six Democrats joining a unified Republican majority.”; Senate, 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.”
Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
| Day | U.S. House · Polymarket | U.S. House · Kalshi | U.S. Senate · Polymarket | U.S. Senate · Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days ago | 87% | 85% | 53% | 48% |
| 6 days ago | 88% | 85% | 53% | 47% |
| 5 days ago | 87% | 85% | 53% | 48% |
| 4 days ago | 88% | 85% | 53% | 47% |
| 3 days ago | 87% | 86% | 54% | 48% |
| 2 days ago | 87% | 86% | 53% | 49% |
| yesterday | 88% | 85% | 53% | 49% |
| today | 88% | 86% | 53% | 49% |
3 closest races
rTexas Senate
POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election
James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).
A dead heat — the two sides are priced within a point of each other.
Two markets, one question
Texas Senate
Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 49.5%, Kalshi 51.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 49.5%, Kalshi 49.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: James Talarico 51% · Ken Paxton 49%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
James Talarico (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$527K50.5%Kalshi5.0M contracts · 51%/52%49.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-1.0ppKen Paxton (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$696K50.5%Kalshi6.8M contracts · 49%/50%51.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas Senate, snapshot Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT. Day James Talarico · Polymarket James Talarico · Kalshi Ken Paxton · Polymarket Ken Paxton · Kalshi 7 days ago 50.5% 49.0% 50.5% 51.0% 6 days ago 50.5% 47.0% 50.5% 52.0% 5 days ago 51.0% 47.0% 49.5% 53.0% 4 days ago 51.5% 50.0% 48.5% 51.0% 3 days ago 51.5% 51.0% 48.5% 51.0% 2 days ago 49.5% 51.0% 49.5% 50.0% yesterday 49.5% 51.0% 49.5% 51.0% today 49.5% 51.5% 49.5% 49.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
vOhio Senate
POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election
Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).
A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead.
Two markets, one question
Ohio Senate
Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 51.5%, Kalshi 52.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 47.0%, Kalshi 47.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Sherrod Brown 52% · Jon Husted 47%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Sherrod Brown (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$176K56.5%Kalshi1.5M contracts · 52%/53%54.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-5.0ppJon Husted (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$138K43.5%Kalshi1.6M contracts · 47%/48%47.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move+3.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio Senate, snapshot Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT. Day Sherrod Brown · Polymarket Sherrod Brown · Kalshi Jon Husted · Polymarket Jon Husted · Kalshi 7 days ago 56.5% 54.0% 43.5% 47.0% 6 days ago 54.5% 54.0% 45.5% 48.0% 5 days ago 51.5% 53.0% 48.5% 48.0% 4 days ago 51.5% 51.0% 47.5% 50.0% 3 days ago 51.5% 53.0% 48.5% 49.0% 2 days ago 51.5% 53.0% 47.0% 48.0% yesterday 51.5% 53.0% 47.0% 47.0% today 51.5% 52.5% 47.0% 47.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
yNevada governor
POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election
Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).
Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Republican side holds a narrow lead, but no race here has moved more this week: it is down about seven points.
Two markets, one question
Nevada governor
Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 4.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 51.0%, Kalshi 55.5%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 48.5%, Kalshi 44.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Joe Lombardo 54% · Aaron Ford 45%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Joe Lombardo (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$88.8K60.5%Kalshi247K contracts · 55%/56%61.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-9.5ppAaron Ford (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$39.4K39%Kalshi503K contracts · 44%/45%42%venue gap3.0pp7-day move+9.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nevada governor, snapshot Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT. Day Joe Lombardo · Polymarket Joe Lombardo · Kalshi Aaron Ford · Polymarket Aaron Ford · Kalshi 7 days ago 60.5% 61.0% 39.0% 42.0% 6 days ago 59.5% 61.0% 40.5% 41.0% 5 days ago 57.0% 61.0% 41.5% 40.0% 4 days ago 54.0% 62.0% 44.5% 40.0% 3 days ago 43.0% 56.0% 47.5% 43.0% 2 days ago 51.0% 55.0% 49.0% 44.0% yesterday 51.0% 55.0% 48.5% 45.0% today 51.0% 55.5% 48.5% 44.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
The other 19 races
Senate8 of 10
sAlaska Senate
POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election
Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).
A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Alaska Senate
Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 67.5%, Kalshi 67.0%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 33.5%, Kalshi 36.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 6–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Mary Peltola 67% · Dan Sullivan 34%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Mary Peltola (D)7 days agoPolymarket$257K63.5%Kalshi88.6K contracts · 66%/68%65.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+4.0ppDan Sullivan (R)7 days agoPolymarket$144K37.5%Kalshi75.3K contracts · 35%/37%—venue gap—7-day move-4.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska Senate, snapshot Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT. Day Mary Peltola · Polymarket Mary Peltola · Kalshi Dan Sullivan · Polymarket Dan Sullivan · Kalshi 7 days ago 63.5% 65% 37.5% — 6 days ago 63.5% 66% 36.0% — 5 days ago 66.5% 65% 34.0% 37% 4 days ago 66.5% 66% 34.0% 37% 3 days ago 67.5% 65% 33.5% 37% 2 days ago 67.5% 66% 33.5% 37% yesterday 67.5% 67% 33.5% 37% today 67.5% 67% 33.5% 36% aaGeorgia Senate
POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election
Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia Senate
Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.4pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 93.0%, Kalshi 92.8%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 7.60%, Kalshi 7.15%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.4pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jon Ossoff 93% · Mike Collins 7.2%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jon Ossoff (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$52.6K93.5%Kalshi382K contracts · 92%/93%92.2%venue gap1.3pp7-day move-0.5ppMike Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$78.7K6.8%Kalshi894K contracts · 6.8%/7.5%7.9%venue gap1.1pp7-day move+0.8ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia Senate, snapshot Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT. Day Jon Ossoff · Polymarket Jon Ossoff · Kalshi Mike Collins · Polymarket Mike Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 93.5% 92.2% 6.80% 7.90% 6 days ago 92.5% 93.4% 6.75% 6.90% 5 days ago 92.5% 93.0% 8.00% 7.80% 4 days ago 91.5% 92.3% 7.60% 7.70% 3 days ago 92.5% 92.3% 7.10% 7.80% 2 days ago 92.5% 92.3% 7.50% 7.90% yesterday 93.0% 92.3% 7.60% 6.80% today 93.0% 92.8% 7.60% 7.15% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
tIowa Senate
POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election
Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).
An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Iowa Senate
Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 60.5%, Kalshi 61.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 39.5%, Kalshi 39.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Ashley Hinson 61% · Josh Turek 40%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Ashley Hinson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$139K65.5%Kalshi1.1M contracts · 61%/62%65.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-5.0ppJosh Turek (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$134K34.5%Kalshi1.6M contracts · 39%/40%37.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+5.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa Senate, snapshot Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT. Day Ashley Hinson · Polymarket Ashley Hinson · Kalshi Josh Turek · Polymarket Josh Turek · Kalshi 7 days ago 65.5% 65.0% 34.5% 37.0% 6 days ago 65.5% 65.0% 34.5% 36.0% 5 days ago 66.0% 66.0% 34.5% 36.0% 4 days ago 61.0% 66.0% 39.5% 36.0% 3 days ago 61.0% 67.0% 39.0% 34.0% 2 days ago 60.5% 62.0% 39.5% 40.0% yesterday 60.5% 62.0% 39.5% 38.0% today 60.5% 61.5% 39.5% 39.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
qMaine Senate
POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election
Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).
Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Maine Senate
Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 4.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 70.5%, Kalshi 66.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 29.5%, Kalshi 33.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Troy Jackson 67% · Susan Collins 33%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Troy Jackson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$804K72.5%Kalshi2.6M contracts · 66%/67%69.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move-2.0ppSusan Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$538K28.5%Kalshi2.8M contracts · 33%/34%32.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Maine Senate, snapshot Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT. Day Troy Jackson · Polymarket Troy Jackson · Kalshi Susan Collins · Polymarket Susan Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 72.5% 69.0% 28.5% 32.0% 6 days ago 71.5% 68.0% 28.5% 32.0% 5 days ago 70.5% 68.0% 28.5% 33.0% 4 days ago 70.5% 68.0% 28.5% 33.0% 3 days ago 70.5% 68.0% 29.5% 33.0% 2 days ago 70.5% 68.0% 29.5% 33.0% yesterday 70.5% 68.0% 29.5% 33.0% today 70.5% 66.5% 29.5% 33.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
uMichigan Senate
POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election
Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).
The Democratic side holds a clear lead after the Republican side gained about five points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan Senate
Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 60.5%, Kalshi 60.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 40.5%, Kalshi 40.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 61% · Mike Rogers 41%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Abdul El-Sayed (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$443K65.5%Kalshi1.4M contracts · 60%/61%64.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-5.0ppMike Rogers (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$341K34.5%Kalshi2.1M contracts · 40%/41%36.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+6.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan Senate, snapshot Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT. Day Abdul El-Sayed · Polymarket Abdul El-Sayed · Kalshi Mike Rogers · Polymarket Mike Rogers · Kalshi 7 days ago 65.5% 64.0% 34.5% 36.0% 6 days ago 65.0% 64.0% 35.0% 36.0% 5 days ago 64.5% 64.0% 36.5% 37.0% 4 days ago 62.5% 63.0% 37.0% 36.0% 3 days ago 62.5% 64.0% 37.0% 37.0% 2 days ago 59.5% 63.0% 40.0% 40.0% yesterday 60.5% 63.0% 40.5% 37.0% today 60.5% 60.5% 40.5% 40.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
abNebraska Senate
POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election
Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Nebraska Senate
Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 67.0%, Kalshi 70.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 31.5%, Kalshi 28.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Pete Ricketts 70% · Dan Osborn 28%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Pete Ricketts (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$111K68.5%Kalshi395K contracts · 70%/71%71.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-1.5ppDan Osborn (I)7 days agoPolymarket$43.3K31.5%Kalshi428K contracts · 27%/29%29.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nebraska Senate, snapshot Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT. Day Pete Ricketts · Polymarket Pete Ricketts · Kalshi Dan Osborn · Polymarket Dan Osborn · Kalshi 7 days ago 68.5% 71.0% 31.5% 29% 6 days ago 68.5% 71.0% 31.0% 29% 5 days ago 68.5% 74.0% 30.5% 25% 4 days ago 68.5% 73.0% 30.5% 27% 3 days ago 65.0% 71.0% 31.5% 27% 2 days ago 66.5% 71.0% 31.5% 27% yesterday 67.0% 70.0% 31.5% 29% today 67.0% 70.5% 31.5% 28% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
acNew Hampshire Senate
POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election
Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side lost about three points in a week.
Two markets, one question
New Hampshire Senate
Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 84.5%, Kalshi 84.0%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 15.0%, Kalshi 16.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Chris Pappas 84% · John E. Sununu 16%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Chris Pappas (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$70.6K82%Kalshi141K contracts · 83%/85%83%venue gap1.0pp7-day move+2.5ppJohn E. Sununu (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$33.0K18.5%Kalshi263K contracts · 16%/17%19.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-3.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. New Hampshire Senate, snapshot Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT. Day Chris Pappas · Polymarket Chris Pappas · Kalshi John E. Sununu · Polymarket John E. Sununu · Kalshi 7 days ago 82.0% 83% 18.5% 19.0% 6 days ago 83.0% 83% 17.5% 19.0% 5 days ago 81.0% 83% 19.0% 18.0% 4 days ago 82.5% 85% 17.5% 17.0% 3 days ago 83.5% 84% 14.5% 16.0% 2 days ago 84.5% 85% 15.0% 15.0% yesterday 84.5% 85% 15.0% 17.0% today 84.5% 84% 15.0% 16.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
zNorth Carolina Senate
POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election
Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
North Carolina Senate
Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.7pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 92.0%, Kalshi 91.9%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 9.0%, Kalshi 8.3%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.7pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Roy Cooper 92% · Michael Whatley 8.4%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Roy Cooper (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$45.5K91.5%Kalshi1.3M contracts · 92%/92%91.1%venue gap0.4pp7-day move+0.5ppMichael Whatley (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$61.4K8.5%Kalshi740K contracts · 7.8%/8.8%9.3%venue gap0.8pp7-day move+0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. North Carolina Senate, snapshot Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT. Day Roy Cooper · Polymarket Roy Cooper · Kalshi Michael Whatley · Polymarket Michael Whatley · Kalshi 7 days ago 91.5% 91.1% 8.5% 9.3% 6 days ago 91.5% 91.0% 8.5% 9.2% 5 days ago 92.5% 91.3% 8.5% 9.7% 4 days ago 92.5% 91.0% 8.5% 10.0% 3 days ago 92.5% 90.9% 8.5% 9.0% 2 days ago 92.0% 91.7% 9.0% 8.8% yesterday 92.0% 91.2% 9.0% 9.0% today 92.0% 91.9% 9.0% 8.3% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
Governors11 of 12
aeAlaska governor
POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election
Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).
Wilson holds a commanding lead after losing about three points in five days.
Two markets, one question
Alaska governor
Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 27.5%, Kalshi 26.0%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 1.35%, Kalshi 0.45%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 5–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Bernadette Wilson 27% · Tom Begich 0.8%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Bernadette Wilson (R)7 days agoPolymarket$173K29.5%Kalshi52.2K contracts · 25%/27%—venue gap—7-day move-2.0ppTom Begich (D)7 days agoPolymarket$159K1.35%Kalshi235K contracts · 0.3%/0.6%—venue gap—7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska governor, snapshot Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT. Day Bernadette Wilson · Polymarket Bernadette Wilson · Kalshi Tom Begich · Polymarket Tom Begich · Kalshi 7 days ago 29.5% — 1.35% — 6 days ago 26.0% — 1.35% — 5 days ago 27.5% 31% 1.35% — 4 days ago 27.5% 30% 1.35% 0.10% 3 days ago 27.5% 30% 1.35% 0.10% 2 days ago 27.5% 26% 1.35% 0.10% yesterday 27.5% 27% 1.35% 0.10% today 27.5% 26% 1.35% 0.45% agArizona governor
POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election
Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Arizona governor
Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 87.0%, Kalshi 87.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 12.5%, Kalshi 13.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Katie Hobbs 87% · Andy Biggs 13%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Katie Hobbs (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$32.2K86.5%Kalshi330K contracts · 87%/88%87.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+0.5ppAndy Biggs (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$36.7K13.5%Kalshi256K contracts · 13%/14%15.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Arizona governor, snapshot Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT. Day Katie Hobbs · Polymarket Katie Hobbs · Kalshi Andy Biggs · Polymarket Andy Biggs · Kalshi 7 days ago 86.5% 87.0% 13.5% 15.0% 6 days ago 86.5% 87.0% 13.5% 15.0% 5 days ago 86.5% 87.0% 13.5% 13.0% 4 days ago 86.5% 87.0% 13.5% 13.0% 3 days ago 86.5% 87.0% 12.5% 15.0% 2 days ago 87.0% 87.0% 12.5% 14.0% yesterday 87.0% 87.0% 12.5% 14.0% today 87.0% 87.5% 12.5% 13.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
akFlorida governor
POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election
Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).
Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Florida governor
Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 81.0%, Kalshi 80.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 19.0%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Byron Donalds 81% · David Jolly 20%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Byron Donalds (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$29.5K81.5%Kalshi827K contracts · 80%/81%81.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-0.5ppDavid Jolly (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$33.3K18.5%Kalshi382K contracts · 20%/21%19.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Florida governor, snapshot Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT. Day Byron Donalds · Polymarket Byron Donalds · Kalshi David Jolly · Polymarket David Jolly · Kalshi 7 days ago 81.5% 81.0% 18.5% 19.0% 6 days ago 82.5% 81.0% 18.5% 19.0% 5 days ago 81.5% 82.0% 19.0% 18.0% 4 days ago 81.5% 82.0% 19.0% 19.0% 3 days ago 81.5% 82.0% 18.5% 20.0% 2 days ago 81.0% 80.0% 19.0% 21.0% yesterday 81.0% 80.0% 19.0% 21.0% today 81.0% 80.5% 19.0% 20.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
xGeorgia governor
POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).
Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia governor
Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 57.0%, Kalshi 54.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 43.5%, Kalshi 45.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Keisha Lance Bottoms 55% · Rick Jackson 45%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$36.3K56%Kalshi298K contracts · 54%/55%57%venue gap1.0pp7-day move+1.0ppRick Jackson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$40.6K43.5%Kalshi401K contracts · 45%/46%44.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia governor, snapshot Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT. Day Keisha Lance Bottoms · Polymarket Keisha Lance Bottoms · Kalshi Rick Jackson · Polymarket Rick Jackson · Kalshi 7 days ago 56.0% 57.0% 43.5% 44.0% 6 days ago 56.5% 57.0% 43.5% 43.0% 5 days ago 56.5% 56.0% 42.5% 44.0% 4 days ago 56.5% 57.0% 42.0% 44.0% 3 days ago 57.0% 56.0% 42.5% 44.0% 2 days ago 57.0% 57.0% 43.5% 44.0% yesterday 57.0% 56.0% 43.5% 45.0% today 57.0% 54.5% 43.5% 45.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
adIowa governor
POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election
Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Iowa governor
Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 76.5%, Kalshi 77.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 23.5%, Kalshi 23.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Rob Sand 77% · Zach Lahn 23%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Rob Sand (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$33.8K74.5%Kalshi334K contracts · 77%/78%76.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+2.0ppZach Lahn (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$45.1K25%Kalshi326K contracts · 22%/24%24%venue gap1.0pp7-day move-1.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa governor, snapshot Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT. Day Rob Sand · Polymarket Rob Sand · Kalshi Zach Lahn · Polymarket Zach Lahn · Kalshi 7 days ago 74.5% 76.0% 25.0% 24% 6 days ago 75.5% 76.0% 23.5% 24% 5 days ago 76.5% 77.0% 24.5% 24% 4 days ago 77.0% 78.0% 23.0% 22% 3 days ago 77.0% 78.0% 23.5% 22% 2 days ago 76.5% 79.0% 23.5% 24% yesterday 76.5% 78.0% 23.5% 22% today 76.5% 77.5% 23.5% 23% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
afMichigan governor
POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election
Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side lost about three points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan governor
Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 92.0%, Kalshi 90.8%; John James (R): Polymarket 6.5%, Kalshi 10.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jocelyn Benson 91% · John James 8.1%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jocelyn Benson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$50.0K90%Kalshi74.0K contracts · 89%/93%88%venue gap2.0pp7-day move+2.0ppJohn James (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$156K11%Kalshi135K contracts · 9.0%/11%12%venue gap1.0pp7-day move-4.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan governor, snapshot Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT. Day Jocelyn Benson · Polymarket Jocelyn Benson · Kalshi John James · Polymarket John James · Kalshi 7 days ago 90.0% 88.0% 11.0% 12.0% 6 days ago 92.0% 90.0% 8.5% 12.0% 5 days ago 92.0% 90.0% 8.5% 11.0% 4 days ago 92.5% 92.9% 7.5% 11.0% 3 days ago 92.5% 88.0% 7.0% 12.0% 2 days ago 92.5% 91.0% 6.5% 9.1% yesterday 92.0% 91.0% 6.5% 12.0% today 92.0% 90.8% 6.5% 10.0% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
aiNew York governor
POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election
Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
New York governor
Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.3pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 94.50%, Kalshi 92.15%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 6.50%, Kalshi 8.45%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.3pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Kathy Hochul 92% · Bruce Blakeman 8.3%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Kathy Hochul (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$49.9K93.5%Kalshi348K contracts · 92%/92%93.1%venue gap0.4pp7-day move+1.0ppBruce Blakeman (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$65.3K5.5%Kalshi1.0M contracts · 8.0%/8.9%7.8%venue gap2.3pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. New York governor, snapshot Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT. Day Kathy Hochul · Polymarket Kathy Hochul · Kalshi Bruce Blakeman · Polymarket Bruce Blakeman · Kalshi 7 days ago 93.5% 93.10% 5.5% 7.80% 6 days ago 94.5% 93.20% 5.5% 9.60% 5 days ago 94.5% 92.20% 5.5% 9.40% 4 days ago 94.5% 92.10% 6.5% 8.70% 3 days ago 94.5% 92.20% 6.5% 9.30% 2 days ago 94.5% 92.20% 6.5% 8.70% yesterday 94.5% 92.10% 6.5% 9.30% today 94.5% 92.15% 6.5% 8.45% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
pOhio governor
POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election
Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).
Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead.
Two markets, one question
Ohio governor
Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 55.0%, Kalshi 56.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 45.0%, Kalshi 46.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Amy Acton 56% · Vivek Ramaswamy 46%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Amy Acton (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$92.1K55.5%Kalshi780K contracts · 56%/57%59.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move-0.5ppVivek Ramaswamy (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$109K43.5%Kalshi826K contracts · 46%/47%43.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+1.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio governor, snapshot Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT. Day Amy Acton · Polymarket Amy Acton · Kalshi Vivek Ramaswamy · Polymarket Vivek Ramaswamy · Kalshi 7 days ago 55.5% 59.0% 43.5% 43.0% 6 days ago 55.5% 57.0% 45.5% 45.0% 5 days ago 55.5% 55.0% 45.5% 47.0% 4 days ago 55.5% 57.0% 45.5% 44.0% 3 days ago 55.5% 57.0% 43.5% 45.0% 2 days ago 55.5% 56.0% 45.0% 45.0% yesterday 55.0% 57.0% 45.0% 44.0% today 55.0% 56.5% 45.0% 46.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
ajPennsylvania governor
POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election
Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Pennsylvania governor
Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.4pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 96.95%, Kalshi 96.55%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.35%, Kalshi 3.75%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.4pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Josh Shapiro 97% · Stacy Garrity 3.6%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Josh Shapiro (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$7.5K96.8%Kalshi99.5K contracts · 96%/98%—venue gap—7-day move+0.2ppStacy Garrity (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$42.0K1.85%Kalshi393K contracts · 3.3%/4.2%4.30%venue gap2.4pp7-day move+0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Pennsylvania governor, snapshot Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT. Day Josh Shapiro · Polymarket Josh Shapiro · Kalshi Stacy Garrity · Polymarket Stacy Garrity · Kalshi 7 days ago 96.80% — 1.85% 4.30% 6 days ago 96.40% 97.50% 1.80% 4.00% 5 days ago 96.80% 97.50% 2.25% 2.60% 4 days ago 97.10% 96.80% 2.30% 4.50% 3 days ago 96.85% 95.50% 2.50% 4.20% 2 days ago 97.10% 95.10% 2.30% 3.30% yesterday 96.95% 97.50% 2.35% 3.40% today 96.95% 96.55% 2.35% 3.75% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
ahTexas governor
POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election
Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Texas governor
Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 80.95%, Kalshi 82.50%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 18.5%, Kalshi 17.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Greg Abbott 82% · Gina Hinojosa 18%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Greg Abbott (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$41.3K81.9%Kalshi184K contracts · 82%/83%80.0%venue gap1.9pp7-day move-0.9ppGina Hinojosa (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$53.0K18%Kalshi695K contracts · 17%/18%21%venue gap3.0pp7-day move+0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas governor, snapshot Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT. Day Greg Abbott · Polymarket Greg Abbott · Kalshi Gina Hinojosa · Polymarket Gina Hinojosa · Kalshi 7 days ago 81.90% 80.0% 18.0% 21.0% 6 days ago 82.55% 84.0% 18.0% 18.0% 5 days ago 82.10% 83.0% 18.0% 16.0% 4 days ago 80.85% 82.0% 18.0% 18.0% 3 days ago 81.00% 84.0% 19.0% 18.0% 2 days ago 81.10% 83.0% 18.5% 19.0% yesterday 80.95% 82.0% 18.5% 19.0% today 80.95% 82.5% 18.5% 17.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
wWisconsin governor
POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election
David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).
An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Wisconsin governor
Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 82.5%, Kalshi 80.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 17.5%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: David Crowley 81% · Tom Tiffany 20%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
David Crowley (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$311K83.5%Kalshi460K contracts · 80%/81%79.0%venue gap4.5pp7-day move-1.0ppTom Tiffany (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$268K17.5%Kalshi612K contracts · 20%/21%21.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Wisconsin governor, snapshot Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT. Day David Crowley · Polymarket David Crowley · Kalshi Tom Tiffany · Polymarket Tom Tiffany · Kalshi 7 days ago 83.5% 79.0% 17.5% 21.0% 6 days ago 83.5% 80.0% 17.5% 20.0% 5 days ago 82.5% 81.0% 17.5% 20.0% 4 days ago 82.5% 80.0% 17.5% 20.0% 3 days ago 82.5% 82.0% 17.5% 19.0% 2 days ago 82.5% 81.0% 17.5% 20.0% yesterday 82.5% 81.0% 17.5% 20.0% today 82.5% 80.5% 17.5% 20.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.
Not news news1 story
Ongoing1 earlier update8 days
This story has run 2 times over 8 days, starting Sep 6.
- Part of the Kennedy Center grand foyer ceiling collapsed during Sept. 4 storms, no injuries
- Kennedy Center warns of 'certain financial collapse' within weeks and closure as soon as Tuesday, Sept. 15 — this issue
Internal papers say adding Donald Trump's name to the building may be the only way to avoid bankruptcy.
A 57-page packet sent to trustees before a special board meeting Tuesday, Sept. 15 warns the Center could be unable to make payroll or pay routine maintenance contracts within weeks. The papers call the shortfall 'certain financial collapse.' A federal judge enjoined the shutdown on May 29 and ordered Trump's name off the building; performances stopped anyway after July 4, under the board's March 16 renovation vote. About 300 staff remain on the payroll; the papers warn 75 to 175 positions would go in a full shutdown.
How ticket and donor demand fell after the takeover
- Subscription sales for fall 2025 were down about $1.6 million, roughly 36 percent, against the prior year.
- Ticket buyers were down about 70 percent against the same period in each of the prior three years; 43 percent of seats sat unsold Sept. 3-Oct. 19 against 7 percent in 2024 — both figures from the trustees' packet reported by the Post.
- Washington National Opera — resident since 1971 — left in January 2026, saying the Center's new requirement that productions be fully funded in advance does not fit its finances (NPR); it now sues over $17 million in withheld donations.
Related reading
Joyce Beatty (Rep-D Ohio), a board member, sued her own board Dec. 22, 2025; the court held only Congress can change a name set by statute in 1964.