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Wednesday · The daily brief

Sep 232026

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Executive summary8 stories

News news4

  1. Five television networks suspend White House pool coverage as Trump launches 24/7 streaming feedJudge Timothy Kelly scheduled a Wednesday 3:30 p.m. hearing on an emergency restraining order to restore hard passes for three barred outlets.
  2. Trump addresses the 81st UN General Assembly to pitch UN budget cuts and meet 11 world leaders as the Iran war nears seven monthsOfficials claim $1 billion in budget cuts, roughly 3,000 eliminated agency jobs, and the departure of more than a quarter of peacekeepers.
  3. Iran offers to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. lifts its naval blockade as traffic falls to two shipsSecretary of State Marco Rubio said no UN meeting is scheduled, while Pakistani mediators opened shuttle talks in Tehran.
  4. FBI sought a bribery probe touching Susan Collins before anti-corruption units were dismantledNavatek's chief sent $150,000 to her super PAC after an internal email recorded a pledge of $32 million in naval contracts.

Not news news4

  1. ICE stops listing thousands of detainees with final deportation orders in its online locatorThe unannounced Sept. 15 change cuts off public searches while exempting four court-supervised facilities in California, Illinois, Minnesota and New York.
  2. Congress demands a CDC briefing as four Pennsylvania measles deaths remain uncountedFederal dashboards show zero deaths under a Sept. 4 accounting shift, while Philadelphia monitors a neonatal intensive care exposure.
  3. Medical groups and enrollees sue to block work rules for medically frail Medicaid recipientsThe One Big Beautiful Bill Act imposes 80-hour monthly work mandates across 44 states starting Jan. 1, 2027.
  4. Kremlin-backed fintech A7 moved $6.9 billion through Citigroup and Standard Chartered using forged documents.Hundreds of thousands of leaked files show the platform was engineered as an evasion alternative to SWIFT.

News news4 stories

Ongoing1 earlier update

This story has run 2 times, starting Sep 22.

  1. UpdateCNN, MS NOW and Politico sue Trump over White House ban; TV pool suspends coverage
  2. UpdateFive television networks suspend White House pool coverage as Trump launches 24/7 streaming feed — this issue
THE GUARDIANUpdate

Five television networks suspend White House pool coverage as Trump launches 24/7 streaming feed

Judge Timothy Kelly scheduled a Wednesday 3:30 p.m. hearing on an emergency restraining order to restore hard passes for three barred outlets.

The blackout. All five television networks in the White House pool — ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News and NBC — suspended joint coverage of Trump after the Secret Service deactivated entry badges for CNN, MS NOW and Politico on Saturday, Sept. 19, a day after Trump announced the ban on Truth Social. The withdrawal left Monday's helipad ribbon-cutting without independent television cameras or a boom microphone, leaving the president's remarks inaudible over Marine One.

The broadcast. The administration answered at 7 p.m. ET on Monday, Sept. 21, by launching Trump TV, a 24/7 YouTube stream that opened with a rerun of a July 3 Mount Rushmore speech. Press aides told barred journalists they can report from the street outside the gates, while a substitute pool crew lacked the equipment to capture usable audio.

What next. U.S. District Judge Timothy Kelly scheduled remote oral arguments on an emergency restraining order for Wednesday, Sept. 23 at 3:30 p.m. ET, while Robert Garcia (Rep-D California) demanded written answers from Communications Director Steven Cheung by Oct. 5.

Catch upwhat happened before · 1 earlier issue

After the Secret Service deactivated credentials for CNN, MS NOW, and Politico following a Sept. 18 order, the three newsrooms filed an emergency federal lawsuit on Monday, Sept. 21 as five television networks suspended joint pool coverage in protest.

Who the lawsuit names and who now shoots the poolFour defendants named in the outlets' suit: Trump, Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, Communications Director Steven Cheung and Secret…3 details
  • Four defendants named in the outlets' suit: Trump, Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, Communications Director Steven Cheung and Secret Service Director Sean Curran.
  • Three reporters joined as plaintiffs: Betsy Klein of CNN, Akayla Gardner of MS NOW and Cheyenne Haslett of Politico.
  • The White House assigned two replacement crews: Hearst in Washington and Real America's Voice for New York travel.

Red take

When five television networks suspended joint pool coverage in protest, they exposed the pool for what it is: a private corporate cartel protecting its gatekeeping power. By launching Trump TV as a 24/7 YouTube stream, communications director Steven Cheung dismantled an arrangement where a handful of executives decided what the public heard. Abandoning established broadcast crews undeniably creates friction, leaving moments like Monday's helipad remarks inaudible over Marine One. But an administration cannot allow five commercial outlets to hold public information hostage over revoked badges. Citizens gain more from unfiltered access to the executive branch than from preserving an artificial monopoly on presidential speech.

Blue take

The White House press pool has its flaws, and television networks certainly fight to preserve their institutional turf. But when the Secret Service deactivated credentials for CNN and two other newsrooms, it crossed from administrative discretion into censorship. As Representative Robert Garcia recognized, an executive branch that selects its own interrogators eliminates public accountability. The withdrawal left Monday's helipad ribbon-cutting without independent television cameras or a boom microphone, demonstrating what state-curated coverage looks like. A government-run feed is public relations, not journalism. When Judge Timothy Kelly hears the emergency lawsuit, protecting due process for adversarial reporters must take precedence over an administration managing its image.

TIMEUpdateIran war

Trump addresses the 81st UN General Assembly to pitch UN budget cuts and meet 11 world leaders as the Iran war nears seven months

Officials claim $1 billion in budget cuts, roughly 3,000 eliminated agency jobs, and the departure of more than a quarter of peacekeepers.

Trump addressed the 81st UN General Assembly on Tuesday, Sept. 22, pairing a campaign to shrink the international body with warnings over Iran's nuclear program and scheduled meetings with 11 world leaders. The war with Iran has run nearly seven months; the White House originally projected four to six weeks.

The cuts. Senior U.S. officials credited the administration with removing more than $1 billion from UN budgets, cutting roughly 3,000 headquarters positions and sending home more than a quarter of the world's UN peacekeepers. ([TS]Politico's own breakdown finds $870 million between regular and peacekeeping funds, leaving roughly $130 million unaccounted for.) One official described the push as 'having the U.N. on a diet.'

The restrictions. Masoud Pezeshkian (President, Iran) arrived in New York under strict State Department travel limits with only two named aides — chief of staff Mohsen Haji-Mirzaei and deputy protocol head Seyyed Abbas Mousavi — after Washington denied visas to the rest of his communications and advance staff. The State Department says the delegation is smaller than last year's.

What next. Pezeshkian is scheduled to address the assembly on Wednesday, Sept. 23, while Trump meets Gulf Cooperation Council leaders on shipping security through the Strait of Hormuz, the channel that carries much of the Gulf's oil exports.

On Friday, Sept. 18, the U.S. issued travel visas to Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. It barred Palestinian representatives the same day. The conflict between Washington and Tehran had then reached six months. The 81st General Assembly debate opened with Trump, Secretary-General António Guterres, and delegations from Iran and Ukraine sharing the docket.

What the UN restructuring plan cuts, moves and shuts down220 headquarters posts move to cheaper cities, led by Bonn and Nairobi, and 10 regional payroll centres collapse into one global…3 details
  • 220 headquarters posts move to cheaper cities, led by Bonn and Nairobi, and 10 regional payroll centres collapse into one global team
  • UNAIDS, the UN's AIDS agency, is phased out by late 2026, its work split among 11 co-sponsoring agencies
  • A proposed merger of UN Women and the UN Population Fund is projected to save $32 million to $38 million a year
Chart · pipeline render▲ label collision

What the U.S. pays the UN each year vs. what it owes

U.S. UN dues and arrears, in millions of current U.S. dollarsZero-baselined bar chart of four figures stated in the reporting, all in millions of current U.S. dollars as of 2026: the U.S. annual regular-budget assessment, 759; unpaid U.S. regular assessments as of April 30, 2,037; U.S. peacekeeping arrears, 2,247; and the approved 2026 UN regular budget, 3,450. Each bar is drawn to scale against a common axis from 0 to 3,600 million. Arrears figures are dated April 30, 2026 and may have changed since.What the U.S. owes the UN, vs. what it paysMillions of U.S. dollars, 2026 current dollars3,6001,800$759M$2,037M$2,247M$3,450MU.S. annualassessmentUnpaid regularassessmentsPeacekeepingarrearsApproved 2026UN budgetRed bars: U.S. arrears as of April 30, 2026. The U.S. isassessed 22% of the UN regular budget. Source: TIME.
Source: Trump takes the UN stage with Iran, Gaza and a leaner-UN pitch, and 11 leader meetingsPOLI

Red take

Donald Trump is right to impose structural discipline on an institution that treats member contributions as an entitlement. Politico's finding that roughly $130 million remains unaccounted for reflects the initial friction of rapid retrenchment, yet trimming roughly 3,000 headquarters positions targets administrative bloat rather than essential operations. Eliminating redundant overhead forces the United Nations to consolidate fragmented platforms and justify its budget with measurable results. Diplomatic bodies do not reform themselves without fiscal shock. Backing away from open-ended subsidies establishes long-overdue accountability.

Blue take

Donald Trump's abrupt budget assault sacrifices tangible international stability for the appearance of austerity. Trimming redundant bureaucracy is defensible, but repatriating more than a quarter of peacekeepers during an active seven-month war hollows out stabilizing missions when regional collapse carries catastrophic costs. Politico's finding of roughly $130 million unaccounted for proves this is careless posturing rather than methodical reform. Discarding verified peacekeeping deployments leaves vulnerable borders unmonitored and alienates vital allies. Order abroad cannot be maintained on the cheap, and destabilizing global security to chase unverified savings will ultimately cost far more.

Ongoing22 earlier updates62 days

This story has run 23 times over 62 days, starting Jul 23.

  1. Trump Threatens to Bomb Iranian Bridges and Power Plants for Every Ship Hit in Strait of Hormuz
  2. Iran fires multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. base in Jordan; all are intercepted
  3. Iran denies Trump’s claim that new U.S. talks would start Monday
  4. Cargo ship is struck in the Strait of Hormuz
  5. Vance says the Iran talks are moving, then calls the war only half over
  6. Iran won't reopen Hormuz until the US unfreezes its assets and lifts the blockade
  7. Trump threatens to bomb Oman, the U.S. ally brokering the deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
  8. Trump declares an "economic D-Day" on Iran as Hormuz traffic runs 85% below normal
  9. UpdateU.S. goes nearly a month without large Iran strikes as Trump shifts back to sanctions; Hormuz remains closed
  10. U.S. destroys two Iranian rocket launchers loaded to mine the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at bases in Jordan, all intercepted
  11. UpdateU.S. bombs two Iranian rocket sites near the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at Jordan
  12. UpdateU.S. forces struck IRGC air-defense, radar, maritime and mine-laying sites on Iran's southern coast starting at noon on Sept. 1
  13. UpdateU.S. hits about 100 Iranian targets; Iran fires back at American bases in four countries, and a cruise missile kills 4 at a wedding
  14. Reuters weapons experts say a US munition made a direct hit on the Iranian wedding house that killed 5
  15. US destroys or disables 3 Iranian oil tankers after Iran fired ballistic missiles at a US carrier and destroyer
  16. UpdateIran says it hit an unmanned US vessel a day after the tanker strikes; Central Command calls the claim "a total lie"
  17. UpdateIran says it will declare a restricted zone near the Strait of Hormuz and will strike threats "even before" they are carried out
  18. Iran says it seized a US sea drone in Hormuz; CENTCOM says it malfunctioned a day earlier
  19. UpdateIran fires 20 missiles at a US base in Jordan; Jordan says it intercepted 18
  20. UpdateNavy plans to keep 2 carrier groups near Iran at least through 2026
  21. UpdateUnidentified projectile hits Iranian container ship off Hengam Island, killing 1 and wounding 4
  22. UpdateOil's chokepoint shifts to refineries and tankers as JPMorgan drops its baseline oil forecast
  23. UpdateIran offers to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. lifts its naval blockade as traffic falls to two ships — this issue
REUTERSUpdateIran war

Iran offers to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. lifts its naval blockade as traffic falls to two ships

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said no UN meeting is scheduled, while Pakistani mediators opened shuttle talks in Tehran.

The terms. Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — the shipping channel that carries most Gulf oil exports — within seven days if the U.S. eases military pressure and lifts its naval blockade of Iranian ports. Traffic through the waterway fell to two visible cargo vessels on Tuesday, Sept. 22, a day after an unknown projectile struck an oil tanker and injured at least two crew members, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations office.

The diplomacy. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Tuesday that no meeting is scheduled with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian (President, Iran) at the UN General Assembly, though the administration is open to one. Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi (Interior Minister, Pakistan) met Iranian officials in Tehran to negotiate a framework. Iran's Revolutionary Guard said it is ready for a counteroffensive with 'new weapons' if the U.S. strikes again.

Where it stands. Trump said talks could resume in Pakistan by Thursday, Sept. 24. Iran's seven-day reopening offer, so far unanswered, lapses Sept. 29.

Catch upwhat happened before · 22 earlier issues
  • Sept. 1 — U.S. airstrikes destroyed Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island, ending a month-long operational pause.
  • Sept. 3 — American forces struck roughly 100 coastal military targets after Iran fired ballistic missiles at bases across four countries.
  • Sept. 6 — The Navy disabled three Iranian oil tankers after Iranian forces targeted a U.S. aircraft carrier and destroyer.
  • Sept. 10 — Jordan intercepted 18 of 20 Iranian ballistic missiles fired at a U.S. base following additional American strikes on five tankers.
  • Sept. 14 — A projectile struck a commercial container ship off Hengam Island, killing one crew member and injuring four.
  • Sept. 20 — Drone strikes shut Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, shifting global fuel pressure from crude supplies to refined product and tanker shortages.
21 earlier issues
BackgroundWhat the blockade and strikes have shut down since February3 facts
  • Central Command turned away 109 commercial ships trying to enter or leave Iranian ports through Sept. 20.
  • The International Maritime Organization counted 70 commercial vessels attacked and 19 seafarers killed through late August.
  • QatarEnergy has kept 12.8 million tonnes of annual gas capacity offline since March airstrikes damaged two processing trains.
Currently showing What the blockade and the strikes have shut down
What the blockade and the strikes have shut down
Four cumulative tallies of the shipping war, each on its own labeled rowA dot plot of four running tallies reported in the story: 109 commercial ships turned away from Iranian ports by U.S. Central Command through Sept. 20; 70 commercial vessels attacked, per the International Maritime Organization, through late August; 19 seafarers killed on the same IMO count; and 12.8 million tonnes of annual QatarEnergy gas capacity offline since March. Each row carries a different unit and a different cut-off date, so the dots are placed on one shared scale only to show relative size and the rows should not be summed or compared with each other. Every value is written out in its row label, so no figure has to be read off the scale.What the war at sea has shut downFour running tallies from the story.Different units; size only, not a total.109 commercial ships turned awayU.S. Central Command, to Sept. 2070 commercial vessels attackedIMO count, to late August19 seafarers killedIMO count, to late August12.8 million tonnes of gasQatarEnergy, offline since March
What the blockade and the strikes have shut down
PROPUBLICA

FBI sought a bribery probe touching Susan Collins before anti-corruption units were dismantled

Navatek's chief sent $150,000 to her super PAC after an internal email recorded a pledge of $32 million in naval contracts.

The meeting. In late 2019, Collins super PAC chairman Scott Reed asked Navatek executives at a Washington bakery for $500,000. Navatek chief Martin Kao wired an initial $150,000 through a shell company, telling colleagues in an internal email that Susan Collins (Sen-R Maine) had committed to securing $32 million in naval contracts.

The evidence. Federal agents assembled a 60-slide prosecution memo by late 2024 showing Collins' office steered an earlier contract, followed by an aide emailing that Collins wished to thank Kao personally. No charges were filed against Collins or her staff.

Where it stands. The FBI closed its inquiry into Reed in 2025 citing doubts over Kao's credibility, while an agency spokesperson stated investigators found nothing implicating the senator.

What the contractor campaign finance case ultimately yieldedMartin Kao received a 33-month sentence in October 2025, running concurrently with an 87-month term for pandemic loan fraud.3 details
  • Martin Kao received a 33-month sentence in October 2025, running concurrently with an 87-month term for pandemic loan fraud.
  • Two Navatek co-defendants who did not implicate lawmakers received 12 months of probation each.
  • Collins' campaign disgorged $205,600 in conduit donations in 2021 after the straw-donor scheme became public.

Red take

Lawmakers cannot serve their constituents if a dishonest contractor's private boasting is treated as criminal conspiracy. Martin Kao was a convicted fraudster whose internal emails promised outcomes he had no power to guarantee. An aide arranging a thank-you or supporting local defense employers may look unseemly, but regional advocacy is fundamental to congressional representation. The FBI closed its inquiry in 2025 citing doubts over Kao's credibility, while an agency spokesperson stated investigators found nothing implicating the senator. Premising federal corruption charges on fabricated donor claims forecloses standard legislative casework and leaves local industry defenseless.

Blue take

Public procurement becomes corrupt the moment legislative favors mirror private campaign cash. Martin Kao was an unreliable fraudster, but federal agents did not rely on his word alone. By late 2024, agents assembled a 60-slide prosecution memo showing Collins' office steered an earlier $8 million contract alongside donor solicitations. That timeline reflects coordinated patronage rather than innocent constituent service. Gutting the DOJ Public Integrity Section allows the five-year clock to expire on clear influence peddling. Taxpayers ultimately foot the bill for lucrative defense awards while politicians trade official power for financial backing without consequence.

Quick bites20

Courts3 bites

  1. Appeals court orders Missouri to use 7-1 Republican map but stays ruling one week

    WASHINGTON EXAMINERUpdateCourts and the adminis…

    The panel held that using different lines than the August primary violates the Constitution, while challengers readied an urgent appeal.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 3 earlier issues
    • Sept. 10 — Missouri's high court summoned Secretary of State Denny Hoskins for telling officials to use the blocked 7-1 map.
    • Sept. 11 — The Supreme Court blocked the 7-1 map, and Hoskins directed counties back to 2022's 6-2 lines.
    • Sept. 13 — Local election officials warned that returning to the 6-2 map would confuse voters and disrupt races.
    2 earlier issues
    Key figures on the ruling and the election calendarTwo of the three judges on the panel were appointed by Donald Trump.3 details
    • Two of the three judges on the panel were appointed by Donald Trump.
    • County clerks warned a late map swap would cost hundreds of thousands of dollars.
    • Absentee ballots on the 6-2 lines were required to be ready by Tuesday, Sept. 22.
    Ongoing3

    This story has run 4 times over 13 days, starting Sep 10.

    1. Missouri Supreme Court summons Hoskins after he ordered officials to use a blocked congressional map.
    2. UpdateSupreme Court blocks Missouri from using 7-1 Republican map in November
    3. UpdateMissouri election officials warned the restored 6-2 map will confuse voters and disrupt races.
    4. UpdateAppeals court orders Missouri to use 7-1 Republican map but stays ruling one week — this issue

  2. Paramount settled suits with 12 states and writers to clear its Warner buyout

    PBS NEWSHOURUpdate

    Paramount agreed to add U.S. film work and back news boards to end both suits.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 1 earlier issue

    On Sept. 22, Paramount agreed to settle antitrust claims with 12 states over its takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery.

    Key facts on the settlement terms and commitmentsTwelve state attorneys general sued in July 2026 to stop the deal.3 details
    • Twelve state attorneys general sued in July 2026 to stop the deal.
    • Paramount will set up news boards at 2 outlets, CNN and CBS.
    • The pact ends 2 suits, leaving only a judge's final sign-off.
    Ongoing1

    This story has run 2 times, starting Sep 22.

    1. UpdateParamount settles with 12 states, clearing its $110 billion Warner Bros. Discovery takeover
    2. UpdateParamount settled suits with 12 states and writers to clear its Warner buyout — this issue

  3. Fifty-three former prosecutors asked a federal court to block Trump Media's $100,000 post feed

    CBS NEWS

    The filing in Manhattan federal court backs an injunction against Donald Trump, aides Natalie Harp and Dan Scavino, and the White House for alleged conflicts of interest.

    Case detailsSan Francisco filed its own lawsuit to halt the subscription feed.2 details
    • San Francisco filed its own lawsuit to halt the subscription feed.
    • The Intercept and Freedom of the Press Foundation suit claims the arrangement violates the First and Fifth Amendments.
The Middle East war5 bites

  1. Saudi Arabia tested its shut east-west pipeline for a restart as oil fell below $98

    FINANCIAL TIMESUpdateIran war

    The Red Sea line has been shut since drone strikes on Sept. 11, while Iran called reports that it will reopen the Strait of Hormuz untrue.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 11 earlier issues
    • Sept. 9 — Houthi strikes hit 4 Saudi cities, wounding 73 and shutting Aramco's 400,000-barrel-a-day Jazan refinery.
    • Sept. 12 — Drone strikes forced Saudi Arabia to close its 7-million-barrel-per-day East-West pipeline as Houthis seized key Red Sea positions.
    • Sept. 16 — Aramco halted crude loadings at its Yanbu terminal and cancelled September cargoes as supertanker hire rose.
    • Sept. 20 — Houthi missiles set a Riyadh fuel depot ablaze before Saudi forces intercepted another missile aimed at the capital the next day.
    10 earlier issues
    Key facts on oil prices and shipping flowsU.S. crude dropped below $93 a barrel, matching its lowest level since Sept. 8.2 details
    • U.S. crude dropped below $93 a barrel, matching its lowest level since Sept. 8.
    • The 7-million-barrel-per-day pipeline has been closed for two weeks after attacks on Sept. 11.
    Ongoing11

    This story has run 12 times over 14 days, starting Sep 9.

    1. Houthi missiles and drones hit 4 Saudi cities, wounding 73 and halting Aramco's 400,000-barrel-a-day Jazan refinery
    2. Houthis capture Yemen's Mokha from Saudi-backed forces 46 miles from Bab el-Mandeb
    3. UpdateHouthi forces captured Mokha and Perim island in the 28-kilometer Bab el-Mandeb strait.
    4. UpdateA day after the Bab el-Mandeb capture, maritime monitors have recorded no new transit halts
    5. UpdateSaudi Arabia shuts Hormuz-bypass pipeline, oil rises more than $3 with 4% of supply at risk
    6. UpdateHouthis seize two more Red Sea islands as Saudi pipeline faces 3-to-5-week outage
    7. UpdateSaudi Arabia suspends loadings at its last open oil terminal; September cargoes cancelled
    8. Attacks on Saudi export pipeline push WTI crude to $107.02 a barrel, a 30-day high
    9. UpdateHouthi missiles hit Riyadh, burning a fuel depot near King Khalid airport
    10. UpdateSaudi Arabia says it intercepted a Houthi missile aimed at Riyadh
    11. UpdateTrump declined a prepared U.S. air campaign against the Houthis, giving Saudi Arabia intelligence and targeting data instead
    12. UpdateSaudi Arabia tested its shut east-west pipeline for a restart as oil fell below $98 — this issue

  2. Gulf leaders urge Trump to avoid escalating with Iran after weekend strikes

    BLOOMBERGUpdateIran war

    The talks follow Donald Trump halting planned strikes late Saturday at the request of Mohammed bin Salman (Crown Prince, Saudi Arabia).

    How we got herethe story so far
    • Sept. 11 — Over 100 U.S. military advisers began assisting a Saudi command center with intelligence and targeting against the Houthis.
    • Sept. 14 — Houthis launched strikes into Saudi Arabia after seizing Perim Island in an assault that killed over 1,500 troops.
    • Sept. 21 — Donald Trump weighed fresh strikes on Iran as national gasoline prices hit an average of $4.48 a gallon.
    • Weekend Houthi strikes hit two Saudi sites, including Riyadh's airport and oil tanks.
    • Gulf leaders bring two core fears to Tuesday's talks: wider war and less U.S. protection.
    • U.S. Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz previewed talks on two key straits: Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb.

  3. Trump proposes a $5 billion fund to rebuild Middle East energy sites

    BLOOMBERG

    The White House is moving ahead even though the seven-month war has not ended.

    Key figure on the broader project:

    • The Wall Street Journal reports the broader energy project could cost more.

  4. Trump canceled planned strikes on the Houthis three hours before launch

    NBC NEWSUpdateIran war

    Military leaders split over opening a second front while the Houthis pushed into southern Yemen.

    How we got herethe story so far
    • Sept. 9 — Houthi strikes hit 4 Saudi cities, wounding 73 and shutting Aramco's 400,000-barrel-a-day Jazan refinery.
    • Sept. 12 — Drone strikes shut the 7-million-barrel-per-day East-West pipeline as Houthis seized Mokha and Perim Island near Bab el-Mandeb.
    • Sept. 16 — Aramco halted loadings at Yanbu and cancelled September cargoes as supertanker hire climbed.
    • Sept. 20 — Houthi missiles hit a Riyadh fuel depot before Saudi forces intercepted another missile aimed at the capital next day.
    Key details on the canceled strikes and regional fightingBritain agreed to use one RAF Voyager to refuel Saudi jets for several weeks.3 details
    • Britain agreed to use one RAF Voyager to refuel Saudi jets for several weeks.
    • The Houthis claimed to down a Saudi F-15 jet and pushed into two governorates.
    • Over 100,000 people fled as Houthi forces opened a new front in western Yemen.

  5. Senate Democrats can force an Iran war powers vote this week, needing five Republican crossovers

    WASHINGTON EXAMINERIran war

    Lead sponsor Andy Kim (Sen-D New Jersey) picked up retiring Thom Tillis (Sen-R North Carolina), but zero war powers resolutions have become law since fighting began in February.

    Where the votes standSeven House Republicans defected last week to pass a companion war powers resolution.3 details
    • Seven House Republicans defected last week to pass a companion war powers resolution.
    • John Fetterman (Sen-D Pennsylvania) opposes the resolution, keeping the Senate threshold at five crossovers.
    • GOP Senate nominee Mike Rogers (R-MI) urged ending the war as national diesel topped $6.50 a gallon.
The northern flank2 bites

  1. Trump signed an Arctic pact expanding U.S. military rights in Greenland while leaving sovereignty unchanged.

    FOX NEWSUpdate

    Mette Frederiksen (Prime Minister, Denmark) and Jens-Frederick Nielsen (Prime Minister, Greenland) joined Donald Trump in New York to sign the deal, which lets the U.S. add two military bases without separate local approval.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 2 earlier issues
    • Sep. 8 — The EU pledged aid to Greenland while 11 NATO allies ran Arctic military drills without American participation.
    • Sep. 19 — Trump claimed a deal gave the U.S. permanent security control over Greenland, though Denmark withheld confirmation and text.
    • Sep. 20 — Denmark and Greenland insisted their sovereignty remained intact, disputing Trump's control claims and noting both parliaments must vote.
    1 earlier issue
    Basing details and historyBoth Danish and Greenlandic parliaments must still complete ratification procedures before the expanded basing rules take effect.3 details
    • Both Danish and Greenlandic parliaments must still complete ratification procedures before the expanded basing rules take effect.
    • The agreement updates a 1951 defense treaty that had left the U.S. with just one base at Pituffik, down from a World War II peak of 17.
    • Adversaries currently have no significant military footprint or active investments on the island.
    Ongoing2

    This story has run 3 times over 4 days, starting Sep 19.

    1. Trump says the U.S. and Denmark reached a deal giving America "permanent control over security" in Greenland
    2. UpdateDenmark and Greenland say the Greenland pact keeps their sovereignty, contradicting Trump's 'permanent control'
    3. UpdateTrump signed an Arctic pact expanding U.S. military rights in Greenland while leaving sovereignty unchanged. — this issue

  2. A new rotation of U.S. troops is already on its way to Lithuania

    BLOOMBERG

    Gitanas Nauseda (President, Lithuania) said the new U.S. rotation is 'already on its way' to the Baltic NATO member, which borders the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.

    • Mindaugas Sinkevičius (Prime Minister, Lithuania) told the BBC that Vilnius drafted evacuation plans to move elderly residents out of cities, but pledged the country will 'fight back' rather than surrender.
    • NATO fighter pilots shot down a drone in Lithuanian airspace one week ago that entered from the direction of Belarus, drawing no comment from Moscow.
Also tonight8 bites

  1. Venezuelan driver shot by ICE is rehospitalized after detention with bullet near spine

    NBC NEWSUpdateImmigration enforcement

    Federal agents held 28-year-old Wilber Rafael Garcés Pérez on a cold floor without pain medication 130 miles away in Pearsall before returning him to an Austin hospital late Monday.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 1 earlier issue

    On Sept. 21, an ICE officer in Austin shot Venezuelan DoorDash driver Wilber Rafael Garcés Pérez in the back during a traffic encounter. Federal agents detained him for interrogation on Sept. 22 while the bullet remained lodged near his spine.

    • Garcés Pérez entered the U.S. in 2024 through the CBP One app seeking asylum and has no prior criminal record.
    • The ICE officer who fired was placed on administrative leave while the FBI and Homeland Security Investigations review the shooting.
    • ICE notified family members four hours after transferring Garcés Pérez from the Austin hospital to Pearsall.
    Ongoing1

    This story has run 2 times, starting Sep 22.

    1. UpdateMan shot once in the back by an ICE officer in Austin is held at a detention center with the bullet still in him, his lawyer says
    2. UpdateVenezuelan driver shot by ICE is rehospitalized after detention with bullet near spine — this issue

  2. Zelensky asks Trump for a mutual halt on energy and port strikes

    NBC NEWSUpdateRussia-Ukraine war

    Zelensky asked for more Patriot systems, while Russian strikes killed four people overnight.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 15 earlier issues
    • Sept. 7 — Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner opened peace talks in Kyiv and Moscow, but Russian strikes killed seven days later.
    • Sept. 15 — Trump announced a Russia-Ukraine energy truce that Kyiv called conditional as Russian strikes continued.
    • Sept. 19 — Trump signed legislation authorizing tariffs on buyers of Russian oil after the House passed it 262-159.
    • Sept. 21 — Trump urged Ukraine to stop striking Russian refineries over diesel prices as both leaders agreed to meet in New York.
    14 earlier issues
    Key details on the talks and strikesCIA Director John Ratcliffe met Zelensky during a fuel stop in Ireland on Sept. 22.3 details
    • CIA Director John Ratcliffe met Zelensky during a fuel stop in Ireland on Sept. 22.
    • Emmanuel Macron said he pitched two truce plans to Trump on Tuesday.
    • Russian strikes hit at least four regions overnight, killing four people.
    Ongoing15

    This story has run 16 times over 28 days, starting Aug 26.

    1. CIA chief Ratcliffe makes rare Moscow visit
    2. CIA chief reportedly warned Moscow against a limited Russian attack on NATO
    3. CIA chief secretly met Russian intelligence officials in Moscow
    4. UpdateCIA chief told Moscow to end the Ukraine war before Russia’s military and economy worsen
    5. Russian drone hits ammunition depot near Kyiv, killing 38; four remain missing
    6. Russia's finance minister returned to the G20 in person for the first time since the Ukraine invasion
    7. Witkoff and Kushner meet Putin in Moscow Sept. 5, Zelensky in Kyiv Sept. 6, carrying a U.S. proposal to end the war
    8. UpdatePutin orders 72-hour halt to strikes on Kyiv while Witkoff and Kushner visit, after a three-hour Kremlin meeting
    9. UpdateWitkoff and Kushner hold first Kyiv talks of the war, agreeing on next steps but no terms; announcement promised in weeks
    10. UpdateWitkoff says Moscow-Kyiv trip produced 'substantive progress' on scheduling more talks, with no date set and no terms disclosed
    11. UpdateRussia resumed strikes on Kyiv after the truce, killing 7; Trump and Putin then talked for an hour
    12. UpdateTrump says Russia's president wants a Ukraine peace deal after their phone call
    13. UpdateVladimir Putin warned that sending European troops into Ukraine means war with Russia.
    14. Trump announced a Russia-Ukraine energy truce Kyiv calls conditional
    15. Trump and Zelensky agree to New York talks, expected Sept. 22
    16. UpdateZelensky asks Trump for a mutual halt on energy and port strikes — this issue

    A stacked bar of the House vote: 262 yes and 159 no, 421 votes cast, so 62 percent of those voting said yes.

    Chart

    The House voted 262–159

    103-vote margin, out of 421 votes cast.

    The House voted 262–159A stacked bar of the House vote: 262 yes and 159 no, 421 votes cast, so 62 percent of those voting said yes. A reference line at 218 is labelled "218 for a majority of the full 435-seat House".
    YesNo
    The numbers
    The House voted 262–159
    VotesYesNo
    House roll call262 votes159 votes
    Source: House roll call, reported by NBC NewsPOLI

  3. Severed backup fiber grounds flights at four Northeast airports after primary circuit fails

    BBC NEWS

    More than 6,000 flights nationwide were delayed or canceled before technicians repaired the severed Verizon cable Monday evening.

    • Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy blamed an Amtrak crew, while Amtrak said an NJ Transit contractor struck the line due to misplaced digging markers.
    • Repairs to the cut Verizon cable took about 13 hours, with Newark Liberty hardest hit at 267 delayed departures.
    Ongoing1

    This story has run 2 times, starting Sep 22.

    1. A blown circuit and a severed backup cable at Philadelphia air traffic control halted flights at Newark, Philadelphia and Teterboro for about seven hours Monday, Sept. 21
    2. Severed backup fiber grounds flights at four Northeast airports after primary circuit fails — this issue

  4. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pitched China an emergency AI hotline before summit talks

    AXIOSUpdateIran war

    The alert line would warn both sides of AI risks as envoys work to extend a trade truce expiring in November.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 2 earlier issues
    • Aug. 20 — The UAE halted trade with Iran after two ballistic missiles landed in the Persian Gulf.
    • Aug. 26 — Beijing rejected U.S. threats to sanction Iran's trading partners following 60 new Treasury penalties.
    • Sept. 13 — All 11 BRICS members condemned unauthorized sanctions as Xi Jinping offered China as a Middle East mediator.
    • Sept. 15 — Trump rejected slowing domestic AI development to preserve the American tech advantage over China.
    • Sept. 21 — U.S. and Chinese negotiators opened preliminary talks in New York on trade, AI, and critical minerals.
    • Fourteen Democratic veterans in Congress urged Donald Trump to confront Xi over satellite data tied to three U.S. deaths.
    • The State Department sanctioned 4 Chinese firms in May for aiding Iranian strikes on U.S. troops.
    • Tech leaders including Elon Musk and Sam Altman will attend the Thursday, Sept. 24 state dinner.
    1 earlier issue
    Ongoing2

    This story has run 3 times over 2 days, starting Sep 21.

    1. UpdateU.S. and China open New York talks on trade, AI and critical minerals
    2. US proposes an AI incident hotline with China; next talks set for Shenzhen in November
    3. UpdateTreasury Secretary Scott Bessent pitched China an emergency AI hotline before summit talks — this issue

  5. Texas halts all state data-center permits pending a grid audit

    REUTERSUpdate

    Greg Abbott (Gov-R Texas) halted all state-issued permits pending an audit of the power grid.

    On Sept. 22, local pushback against AI data centers grew into a national fight dividing candidates in both parties.

    • The House passed a bill 417-3 to stop tech firms from shifting grid costs onto ratepayers.
    • Bloomberg reports U.S. data-center spending hit new highs in 2026 despite the pushback.

    A stacked bar of the House vote: 417 yes and 3 no, 420 votes cast, so 99 percent of those voting said yes.

    Chart

    The House voted 417–3

    414-vote margin, out of 420 votes cast.

    The House voted 417–3A stacked bar of the House vote: 417 yes and 3 no, 420 votes cast, so 99 percent of those voting said yes. A reference line at 218 is labelled "218 for a majority of the full 435-seat House".
    YesNo
    The numbers
    The House voted 417–3
    VotesYesNo
    House roll call417 votes3 votes
    Source: House roll call, reported by ReutersPOLI

  6. Trump and New York mayor Zohran Mamdani agreed to advance 12,000 Queens homes

    POLITICO

    The two agreed to step up talks on building a concrete deck over Sunnyside Yard.

    Key details on the meeting and housing planRonald Reagan was the last president to visit the mansion, meeting Ed Koch in 1981.2 details
    • Ronald Reagan was the last president to visit the mansion, meeting Ed Koch in 1981.
    • Monday was their third in-person meeting since Mamdani took office at age 34.

  7. Donald Trump says his planned triumphal arch will house snipers and drones

    CNNUpdate

    Trump offered no proof for his claim, while Mike Simpson (Rep-R Idaho) said the military is already short on funds.

    On Sept. 22, senior House appropriator Mike Simpson (Rep-R Idaho) opposed using Pentagon funds for Donald Trump's planned triumphal arch.

    • Trump posted the military plan on Truth Social on Sunday, Sept. 20.
    • The planned arch would link two regions across the Potomac River.

  8. North Korea says its Sunday launch tested a new hypersonic glide vehicle

    FINANCIAL TIMESUpdate

    State photos showed Kim inspecting the Hwasongpho-11-ma-1, a missile built to slip past air defense.

    On Sept. 21, North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles into waters off its east coast.

    • South Korea said the North fired 2 short-range missiles into the sea on Sunday.
    • Top envoys from 3 allied nations met in New York on Monday to talk about defense.
Elections2 bites

  1. Republicans booked $110 million in ads to defend House seats Trump won by double digits

    POLITICO

    GOP groups put two-thirds of House ad cash toward incumbents, including $18 million for Max Miller (Rep-R Ohio).

    Key numbers on the map and voter sentimentDemocrats lead 39% to 38% on economic trust in a new NBC poll, their first edge since 2017.3 details
    • Democrats lead 39% to 38% on economic trust in a new NBC poll, their first edge since 2017.
    • 43% of voters say their House vote signals opposition to Donald Trump.
    • Over 400 groups in America Votes report funds falling well below 2022 levels.

  2. Kamala Harris campaigns in Detroit to shore up Black voters for Abdul El-Sayed

    ABC NEWS

    El-Sayed won his primary by 15,000 votes, while roughly 500 Jewish Democrats backed Mike Rogers (R-MI).

    • A 2021 study found 61% of Michigan's 130,000 Jewish adults lean Democratic.
    • Harris held 2 Detroit events aimed at Black voters who backed his primary rival.

Elections22 races

The midterms · 41 days out · November 3, 2026

D or R take the House / Senate?

Sep 23, 11:54 PM CT

U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 93%, Kalshi 92%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 66%, Kalshi 65%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

U.S. House — Democrats take it, 91.75–92.50%
93%92%chance Democrats take it · 0.8pp apart · both venues up this week
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 93% and Kalshi 92%.
U.S. Senate — Democrats take it, 64.5–65.5%
66%65%chance Democrats take it · 1.0pp apart · both venues up this week
U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 66% and Kalshi 65%.

3 closest races

  • adNevada governorJoe Lombardo 52.0%Aaron Ford 48.5%▲3.3

    POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election

    Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).

    Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and it is a dead heat — the two sides are priced within four points of each other.

    Two markets, one question

    Nevada governor

    Sep 23, 11:54 PM CT
    widest venue gap 4.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 50.5%, Kalshi 53.5%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 50.5%, Kalshi 46.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • yIowa SenateAshley Hinson 54.5%Josh Turek 45.5%▲5.9

    POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election

    Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).

    An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a narrow lead after the Democratic side gained about six points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa Senate

    Sep 23, 11:54 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 53.5%, Kalshi 55.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 46.5%, Kalshi 44.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • acGeorgia governorKeisha Lance Bottoms 54.5%Rick Jackson 45.5%▲0.3

    POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election

    Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).

    Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia governor

    Sep 23, 11:54 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 55.5%, Kalshi 53.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 44.5%, Kalshi 46.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

The other 19 races22 races · 13 still in doubt · Sep 23, 11:54 PM CT · markets, not polling

Senate9 of 10

  • xAlaska SenateMary Peltola 73.0%▲1.7Dan Sullivan 27.8%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election

    Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).

    A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska Senate

    Sep 23, 11:54 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 73.5%, Kalshi 72.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 27.5%, Kalshi 28.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • afGeorgia SenateJon Ossoff 94.5%▲1.7Collins 5.6%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election

    Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia Senate

    Sep 23, 11:54 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.3pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 94.5%, Kalshi 94.4%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 5.4%, Kalshi 5.7%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.3pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • vMaine SenateTroy Jackson 73.3%▲4.3Susan Collins 27.0%

    POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election

    Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).

    Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Maine Senate

    Sep 23, 11:54 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 73.5%, Kalshi 73.0%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 26.5%, Kalshi 27.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • zMichigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed 73.3%▲9.0Mike Rogers 26.8%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election

    Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead, but no race here has moved more this week: the Republican side is down about nine points.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan Senate

    Sep 23, 11:54 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 73.0%, Kalshi 73.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 27.0%, Kalshi 26.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • agNebraska SenatePete Ricketts 67.5%Dan Osborn 33.5%▲1.5

    POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election

    Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Nebraska Senate

    Sep 23, 11:54 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 67.5%, Kalshi 67.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 32.5%, Kalshi 34.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • ahNew Hampshire SenateChris Pappas 86.0%▲5.514.3%Sununu

    POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election

    Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about six points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    New Hampshire Senate

    Sep 23, 11:54 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 86.5%, Kalshi 85.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 12.5%, Kalshi 16.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aeNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 93.97%▲1.3Whatley 6.60%

    POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election

    Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    North Carolina Senate

    Sep 23, 11:54 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 94.50%, Kalshi 93.45%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 6.5%, Kalshi 6.7%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aaOhio SenateSherrod Brown 60.5%▲6.0Jon Husted 39.0%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election

    Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).

    A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead after the Republican side lost about seven points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio Senate

    Sep 23, 11:54 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 61.5%, Kalshi 59.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 37.5%, Kalshi 40.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • wTexas SenateJames Talarico 60.0%▲1.7Ken Paxton 41.0%

    POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election

    James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).

    The Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas Senate

    Sep 23, 11:54 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 61.5%, Kalshi 58.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 39.5%, Kalshi 42.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Governors10 of 12

  • ajAlaska governorWilson 18.75%80.5%Begich 0.73%▲6.0

    POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election

    Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).

    Wilson holds a clear lead after losing about six points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska governor

    Sep 23, 11:54 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 18.0%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 1.10%, Kalshi 0.35%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • alArizona governorKatie Hobbs 89.0%▲2.111.0%Biggs

    POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election

    Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Arizona governor

    Sep 23, 11:54 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 88.5%, Kalshi 89.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 10.5%, Kalshi 11.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • apFlorida governorByron Donalds 73.0%27.0%▲5.8Jolly

    POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election

    Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).

    Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead after the Democratic side gained about six points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Florida governor

    Sep 23, 11:54 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 72.5%, Kalshi 73.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 27.5%, Kalshi 26.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aiIowa governorRob Sand 82.8%▲4.9Lahn 17.0%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election

    Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side lost about five points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa governor

    Sep 23, 11:54 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 83.0%, Kalshi 82.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 16.5%, Kalshi 17.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • akMichigan governorJocelyn Benson 92.6%▲1.27.2%James

    POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election

    Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan governor

    Sep 23, 11:54 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.3pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 92.5%, Kalshi 92.7%; John James (R): Polymarket 6.5%, Kalshi 7.8%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.3pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • anNew York governorKathy Hochul 94.67%▲1.9Blakeman 5.38%

    POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election

    Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    New York governor

    Sep 23, 11:54 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.8pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 95.50%, Kalshi 93.85%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 4.50%, Kalshi 6.25%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.8pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • uOhio governorAmy Acton 61.5%▲5.4Vivek Ramaswamy 39.0%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election

    Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).

    Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead after gaining about six points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio governor

    Sep 23, 11:54 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 61.5%, Kalshi 61.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 38.5%, Kalshi 39.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aoPennsylvania governorJosh Shapiro 96.88%▲0.2Garrity 2.90%

    POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election

    Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Pennsylvania governor

    Sep 23, 11:54 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.8pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 96.45%, Kalshi 97.30%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.95%, Kalshi 2.85%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.8pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • amTexas governorGreg Abbott 74.78%25.50%▲2.2Hinojosa

    POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election

    Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead after losing about three points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas governor

    Sep 23, 11:54 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 75.05%, Kalshi 74.50%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 25.5%, Kalshi 25.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • abWisconsin governorDavid Crowley 84.3%▲1.716.0%Tiffany

    POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election

    David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).

    An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Wisconsin governor

    Sep 23, 11:54 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 85.0%, Kalshi 83.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 15.5%, Kalshi 16.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Sep 23, 11:54 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.

Not news news4 stories

THE GUARDIANUpdateImmigration enforcement

ICE stops listing thousands of detainees with final deportation orders in its online locator

The unannounced Sept. 15 change cuts off public searches while exempting four court-supervised facilities in California, Illinois, Minnesota and New York.

The cutoff. Immigration and Customs Enforcement stopped returning search results for detainees with final deportation orders on its online locator on Tuesday, Sept. 15, 2026. Three current and former officials described the unannounced move on condition of anonymity. It hides facility locations for thousands of people in federal custody, out of 65,765 held in July 2026.

The rationale. ICE did not confirm or deny the change on the record. It said only that people with final orders face priority deportation despite a record volume of court injunctions. The American Immigration Lawyers Association alerted attorneys on Friday, Sept. 18, 2026, after clients vanished from search results that week.

The exceptions. Federal court orders still force ICE to post prompt public listings at four sites: the Adelanto detention center in California and holding facilities in Minneapolis, New York City and suburban Chicago.

Where it stands. Outside those four facilities, families and defense counsel must contact local enforcement field offices directly or .

On Tuesday, Sept. 15, 2026, federal immigration authorities ceased publishing facility locations for detainees who had received final deportation orders.

What the online locator already excluded before this cutoffMinors in federal immigration custody were never listed; they are routed to separate health agency shelters3 details
  • Minors in federal immigration custody were never listed; they are routed to separate health agency shelters
  • Migrants held in Customs and Border Protection custody under 48 hours never appear in the system
  • People held at offshore sites are also absent, including eight Somali men at Guantanamo Bay cited by the ACLU
THE GUARDIANUpdate

Congress demands a CDC briefing as four Pennsylvania measles deaths remain uncounted

Federal dashboards show zero deaths under a Sept. 4 accounting shift, while Philadelphia monitors a neonatal intensive care exposure.

The inquiry. Members of Congress asked for an immediate briefing Monday, Sept. 21, on the CDC's decision to leave four Pennsylvania deaths off its national measles tracker. Former CDC chief medical officer Debra Houry said vital statistics records usually reach federal databases within one to two days of a completed state investigation. Pennsylvania finished two of the four investigations weeks ago.

The spread. The state has recorded 731 cases, a figure doctors call an undercount, and 1 in 5 reported cases has required hospitalization. A possible exposure was reported last week in the neonatal intensive care unit at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia. Clinicians are now treating congenital measles in newborns, a form once exceedingly rare. UPMC infectious disease specialist Dr. John Goldman said the outbreak appears to be accelerating and is presenting forms of the disease doctors have not seen before.

Where it stands. The CDC has not scheduled the briefing or explained the reporting lag, and the agency is working with state epidemiologists on a standardized death definition.

How we got herethe story so far
  • Aug. 28 — Pennsylvania reported two measles-linked deaths, its first in 35 years, though a local coroner contested classifying the infant case.
  • Sept. 1 — The CDC omitted both deaths from its national tally after HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. challenged whether measles caused them.
  • Sept. 5 — A Lancaster County coroner confirmed measles killed a 6-week-old girl as nationwide cases rose to 3,134.
  • Sept. 14 — An unvaccinated 40-year-old woman in Jefferson County died from measles complications, marking the state's third death.
  • Sept. 15 — The CDC switched tracking to federal vital statistics records, leaving the agency's official 2026 death count at zero.
  • Sept. 20 — Pennsylvania recorded its fourth death, an unvaccinated 18-year-old, and conditioned a federal assistance request on official death recognition.
How the death-certificate rule keeps four deaths off the dashboardThe agency bypassed the state-reported notifiable disease surveillance system to rely only on death certificates processed by the…3 details
  • The agency bypassed the state-reported notifiable disease surveillance system to rely only on death certificates processed by the National Center for Health Statistics.
  • Lancaster County coroner Stephen Diamantoni attributed an infant fatality to a birth-related splenic laceration, which left measles as a contributing condition rather than the underlying cause.
  • A 40-year-old Jefferson County woman tested positive for active measles at death alongside severe asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; an 18-year-old in Mifflin County died of acute disseminated encephalomyelitis, ruled a natural death.
STATELINE

Medical groups and enrollees sue to block work rules for medically frail Medicaid recipients

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act imposes 80-hour monthly work mandates across 44 states starting Jan. 1, 2027.

Five Medicaid enrollees and leading medical organizations sued the Trump administration on Friday, Sept. 18, 2026, in federal court in Maryland to block new Medicaid work requirements. The suit says a June 2026 rule sharply narrows who qualifies for the law's exemption for the "medically frail."

The plaintiffs. Enrollees from Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina joined the American College of Physicians, the American Academy of Pediatrics and the city of Columbus, Ohio.

The barrier.

Where it stands. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act's work, school or community service conditions apply across 44 states, and the Maryland court has not set a hearing.

BackgroundWhat Arkansas's 2018 work-reporting rule did to enrollees3 facts
  • 18,164 Arkansas adults aged 30 to 49 lost Medicaid coverage before a federal judge halted that state's reporting policy in April 2019.
  • 76% of good-cause exemptions Arkansas approved from July through December 2018 were granted for portal and technical reporting problems, not medical ones.
  • 55% of nonelderly adult Medicaid recipients in Arkansas who reported a disability were not on SSI, leaving them subject to the work rules.
Russia-Ukraine war

Kremlin-backed fintech A7 moved $6.9 billion through Citigroup and Standard Chartered using forged documents.

Kremlin-backed fintech firm A7 moved money through Western banks using forged documents despite sanctions imposed in March 2022. The Russian firm routinely sent fake trade records to global lenders, including Citigroup and Standard Chartered, to clear transactions. Hundreds of thousands of leaked files revealed the scheme. The Financial Times reviewed the files.

The files show the platform was built to evade SWIFT (a Belgian cooperative coordinating cross-border payments across more than 11,000 institutions globally, barring disconnected lenders from world trade). Western allies cut off major Russian banks from SWIFT in March 2022 after the invasion of Ukraine. Moscow then directed state-backed fintech firms to build parallel payment conduits. These groups used layered middlemen to re-enter Western clearing systems.

14 stories that didn't make the cutSeen by the desk, ranked, and not run. The number is where each stood in the day's order.
  • 52[UPDATE] John Thune is open to a diesel export embargo as Senate Republicans splitRecord $6.50 diesel has farm-state Republicans led by Chuck Grassley pressing Trump for an export embargo, a step last used in the 1970s, while oil-state Republicans and Rep.
  • 53Warsh's Fed raises rates over Trump's objections; Bessent voices confidence; dot-plot and inflation-outlook critiquesWarsh's Fed raised rates over Trump's public objections, and Treasury Secretary Bessent backed the chair he helped install, even as critics questioned the dot plot and the inflation outlook.
  • 54CNN poll shows cracks in Republican support for Trump's handling of the Iran warA new CNN poll finds Republican support for Trump's handling of the Iran war softening as the conflict nears seven months.
  • 55Trump's crackdown on dissent since the killing of Charlie KirkThe Times traces the administration's crackdown on dissent in the months since the killing of Charlie Kirk, from investigations to pressure on speech.
  • 56Bill Pulte scrutinized mortgages of Trump's political rivals — and Todd BlancheFHFA director Bill Pulte scrutinized the mortgages of Trump's political rivals — and, the Journal reports, those of Todd Blanche.
  • 57DoorDash to pay $131.5M to settle NYC minimum-pay investigationDoorDash will pay $131.5 million to resolve a New York City investigation into compliance with the city's delivery-worker minimum-pay law.
  • 58UN panel and a 20-nation coalition call for global AI oversight as UNGA opensA UN expert panel and a coalition of 20 nations called for global AI oversight as the General Assembly opened.
  • 59UN expert says US strikes on alleged drug boats could be criminalA UN special rapporteur said US military strikes on alleged drug-trafficking boats could amount to crimes under international law.
  • 60Vermont man convicted of attempted murder in shooting of three Palestinian studentsA Vermont man was convicted of attempted murder in the shooting of three Palestinian students; he told investigators he believed he was acting on instructions from Mossad and the CIA.
  • 61Rep. Veronica Escobar says ICE blocked her oversight visit to the largest detention campRep.
  • 62Judge blocks warrantless ICE construction-site raids in AlabamaA federal judge blocked warrantless ICE raids on Alabama construction sites after agents arrested the same US citizen three times.
  • 63Collins and Murray object to White House plan to let political appointees control grantmakingSens.
  • 64Fewer Democrats plan to vote by mail amid Trump's attacks on mail ballotsFewer Democrats say they plan to vote by mail, a shift that follows Trump's sustained attacks on mail balloting.
  • 66Third-country deportations sent migrants with no ties to Costa RicaThird-country deportations have sent migrants with no connection to Costa Rica into that country, a Times opinion piece reports.

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