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Ongoing29 earlier updates71 days

This story has run 30 times over 71 days, starting Jul 23.

  1. Trump Threatens to Bomb Iranian Bridges and Power Plants for Every Ship Hit in Strait of Hormuz
  2. Iran fires multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. base in Jordan; all are intercepted
  3. Iran denies Trump’s claim that new U.S. talks would start Monday
  4. Cargo ship is struck in the Strait of Hormuz
  5. Vance says the Iran talks are moving, then calls the war only half over
  6. Iran won't reopen Hormuz until the US unfreezes its assets and lifts the blockade
  7. Trump threatens to bomb Oman, the U.S. ally brokering the deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
  8. Trump declares an "economic D-Day" on Iran as Hormuz traffic runs 85% below normal
  9. UpdateU.S. goes nearly a month without large Iran strikes as Trump shifts back to sanctions; Hormuz remains closed
  10. U.S. destroys two Iranian rocket launchers loaded to mine the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at bases in Jordan, all intercepted
  11. UpdateU.S. bombs two Iranian rocket sites near the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at Jordan
  12. UpdateU.S. forces struck IRGC air-defense, radar, maritime and mine-laying sites on Iran's southern coast starting at noon on Sept. 1
  13. UpdateU.S. hits about 100 Iranian targets; Iran fires back at American bases in four countries, and a cruise missile kills 4 at a wedding
  14. Reuters weapons experts say a US munition made a direct hit on the Iranian wedding house that killed 5
  15. US destroys or disables 3 Iranian oil tankers after Iran fired ballistic missiles at a US carrier and destroyer
  16. UpdateIran says it hit an unmanned US vessel a day after the tanker strikes; Central Command calls the claim "a total lie"
  17. UpdateIran says it will declare a restricted zone near the Strait of Hormuz and will strike threats "even before" they are carried out
  18. Iran says it seized a US sea drone in Hormuz; CENTCOM says it malfunctioned a day earlier
  19. UpdateIran fires 20 missiles at a US base in Jordan; Jordan says it intercepted 18
  20. UpdateNavy plans to keep 2 carrier groups near Iran at least through 2026
  21. UpdateUnidentified projectile hits Iranian container ship off Hengam Island, killing 1 and wounding 4
  22. UpdateOil's chokepoint shifts to refineries and tankers as JPMorgan drops its baseline oil forecast
  23. UpdateTrump says he is choosing among wiping Iran out, letting it rot economically, or a deal, and would "probably" meet Pezeshkian at the UN this week
  24. UpdateIran offers to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. lifts its naval blockade as traffic falls to two ships
  25. Iran proposes seven-day ceasefire plan to reopen Strait of Hormuz and revive nuclear talks
  26. UpdateTrump rejects Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days in exchange for ending the U.S. blockade
  27. Trump expects more Iran talks this week after rejecting Iran's Hormuz offer; Iran won't soften its terms
  28. UpdateIran says its UN delegation has no talks planned with the US and will fly home Tuesday, Sept. 29; mediators keep working
  29. UpdateQatari compromise to end the U.S.-Iran war stalls; Trump denies aides' account that he offered Iran sanctions relief
  30. Rubio orders Iran's UN delegation out of New York; Trump says Iran will "sign a very fair deal, or they won't exist any longer" — this issue
AXIOS

Rubio orders Iran's UN delegation out of New York; Trump says Iran will "sign a very fair deal, or they won't exist any longer"

Political Guyentist · October 2, 20263 min read

AXIOS

Araghchi's team came for the UN General Assembly; a U.S. official said it had to go once the meeting ended.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio expelled Iran's negotiating team from New York after talks run through Qatar stalled. Trump then threatened Iran's existence while leaving a deal on the table.

The expulsion. On Rubio's orders, the U.S. mission to the UN told Iran's mission on Monday evening, Sept. 28, that Abbas Araghchi (Foreign Minister, Iran) and his delegation had to leave immediately. Araghchi had come to New York for the UN General Assembly. A U.S. official said they "had overstayed their welcome. The UN General Assembly was over, so it was time for them to go." They flew to Doha, Qatar, at 1:20 a.m. Tuesday, Sept. 29.

Trump's threat. "Maybe I will blow 'em up We will blow 'em up or make a deal. But the time is coming," Trump said. He said the U.S. has spent six months rebuilding its weapons stocks, in a war now more than seven months old. ([TS]his own Pentagon just asked Senate appropriators for more money to fix 'critical shortfalls,' per the BBC)

Still open. Qatari mediators are still working both sides on their compromise proposal. Trump has named no deadline.

Catch upwhat happened before · 29 earlier issues

On Sept. 18 the U.S. granted UN General Assembly visas, with travel limits, to Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian and Araghchi, while denying them to the Palestinian delegation for a second year. On Sept. 28 Araghchi said Iran was ready for renewed U.S. strikes and still open to diplomacy.

28 earlier issues
What six months of restocking has not yet replacedThe 39-day air campaign that ended in the April 8 ceasefire fired more than 1,000 of about 3,100 prewar Tomahawk cruise missiles,…3 details
  • The 39-day air campaign that ended in the April 8 ceasefire fired more than 1,000 of about 3,100 prewar Tomahawk cruise missiles, per CSIS.
  • Patriot interceptors: 1,060-1,430 fired of roughly 2,200-2,330 prewar; THAAD: 190-290 fired of 360-452, CSIS estimates.
  • CSIS projects no new THAAD deliveries to U.S. stocks before April 2027, and says Tomahawk, THAAD and Patriot need three or more years to reach prewar levels.

What we’re less sure of4 of 7 claims

Red take

Iran gets nothing until it reopens the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf shipping lane it closed. Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, was right to send Abbas Araghchi, Iran's foreign minister, home once the General Assembly ended. Tehran wants the U.S. naval blockade lifted and its frozen assets released first; pay up front, and every regime learns that seizing a shipping lane is how you get paid.

Blue take

Trump should be backing Qatar's mediators, not calling a bigger bombing round after the Nov. 3 midterms "possible," because the arsenal is not there. CSIS, a Washington think tank, says the 39-day air campaign burned more than 1,000 of about 3,100 Tomahawk cruise missiles. It projects no new THAAD missile-defense interceptors before April 2027. Widen the war now, and U.S. forces meet Iran's answer with their defenses still thinned.