Political Guyentist
Political Guyentist

Friday

PBS NewsHour
1usUpdateIran war

Iran says its forces damaged seven oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz overnight; AP could not confirm any of them

Trump says Iran is doing "everything they can" to push up oil prices before the Nov. 3 midterms, and Iran threatened U.S. bases if American escorts keep guiding ships through.

- Sept. 23 — Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. lifted its naval blockade; daily traffic had fallen to two ships. - Sept. 25 — Iran proposed a seven-day ceasefire plan to reopen the strait; Trump rejected it, and the WSJ reported he expected bombing to resume after the midterms. - Sept. 30 — A Qatari compromise stalled; U.S. officials said major combat could return after the Nov. 3 midterms. - Oct. 2 — Secretary of State Marco Rubio ordered Iran's UN delegation out of New York; Trump said Iran would "sign a very fair deal, or they won't exist." - Oct. 8 — Congress's research service counted 81 U.S. aircraft and drones lost or damaged in the war, up from 42 in May. - Oct. 11 — Iran's security chief Mohsen Rezaei said Tehran had stopped answering U.S. offers and threatened undersea cables and data centers. - Oct. 13 — The FT counted 24 ships targeted in two weeks, a war record; Singapore-flagged container ship GFS Pride sank in the strait. - Oct. 17 — Iran's Guards said two tankers hit mines; CENTCOM said about 97% of roughly 400 ships crossing that week got through unhit.

ContextBefore the war, the strait carried about 20 million barrels of oil a day in 2024, about a fifth of world consumption, per the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Few other routes exist. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, which skirts the strait, now moves 7 million barrels a day, up from 2 million, Aramco's CEO says.

PBS NEWSHOUR4 sources

2usUpdatecontestedIran war

Two Israeli sources tell ABC that joint strikes on Iran will almost certainly come soon after the Nov. 3 midterms

One source said the targets would include petrochemical plants and nuclear sites such as Pickaxe Mountain, but not power plants.

- Oct. 13 — Axios, citing four sources, reported that Netanyahu had discussed a major new joint strike on Iran with Trump. A White House official called that "false." - Oct. 18 — Trump endorsed Netanyahu for Israel's Oct. 27 vote. He wrote that with anyone else, "America will have to do this work ourselves." - Oct. 19 — Vice President JD Vance said he would not endorse Netanyahu. - Oct. 21 — The New York Times reported U.S.-Israeli plans for possible strikes after the midterms. White House aide Anna Kelly told Drop Site no attack would come before them.

ContextCongress has not voted to authorize war with Iran. Trump's notices to Congress on March 2 and Sept. 3 cited only his commander-in-chief powers, the president's authority to direct the military without a vote. The 1973 War Powers Resolution, the law that limits how long a president can fight without Congress, caps undeclared fighting at 60 days without a vote. The administration argues the April 7 ceasefire ended the earlier fight, which restarts that clock. A House resolution that would authorize force against Iran, H.J.Res.176, has sat in committee since May 7. The White House pledge covers only the 12 days left before the Nov. 3 vote.

ABC NEWS3 sources

4not newslongformMail-ballot rules

ProPublica finds late-arriving primary ballots in 11 rural Washington counties rose to nearly 2,000 from about 600 in 2022 after USPS cut mail pickups

More than 500 ballots sat in one Stevens County post office box until three days after the primary.

How Washington voters can beat the lost second pickup: Mailing late? Ask the counter clerk for a hand cancellation; Washington counts it as a postmark. Official drop boxes close at 8 p.m. Pacific on Tuesday, Nov. 3, and the state strongly recommends them over the mail. The signature-fix process cannot rescue a ballot postmarked after Election Day.

ContextLate-arriving ballots in 11 rural eastern Washington counties rose to nearly 2,000 in this year's primary, up from about 600 in the 2022 primary. In Stevens County, more than 500 ballots sat in one post office box until three days after the primary. USPS ended evening collection in the Spokane, Wenatchee and Yakima mail service areas on Aug. 9, 2025, covering 154, 42 and 30 ZIP codes. By May 2026, more than 15,000 post offices nationwide had been hit by the same cuts. Many of those offices sit 50 or more miles from a processing plant and dropped from two pickups a day to one. Washington counts a mailed ballot only if it is postmarked by Election Day. A ballot dropped after the single daily pickup can get the next day's postmark, so a voter who mailed on time can still be rejected. In urban Spokane, where pickups did not change, late rejections fell.

PROPUBLICA1 source

5not newslongform

Pentagon clears two onshore wind projects, in Maine and South Dakota, the first since its April review freeze

The White House tied the clearances to keeping Senate Democrats on a bipartisan permitting bill that faces a procedural vote on Monday, Nov. 9.

What the Nov. 9 vote needs to start debate on the bill: Votes needed to proceed: 60 Republican senators: 53 Non-Republican votes needed if every Republican votes yes: 7

ContextRenewable-energy groups won an August court ruling against the freeze, and The Hill notes the Thursday, Oct. 22 clearances also follow a court order. The groups say the stalled projects represent more than $47 billion in investment across 21 states. That is their own consultant's estimate, from Charles River Associates. It covers at least 106 projects they could verify in FAA records. The Senate permitting bill was introduced Sept. 30, about three weeks before the clearances.

WASHINGTON EXAMINER5 sources

Friday · The daily brief

Oct 232026

5 leads40 briefs26 min

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Executive summary5 stories

News news3

  1. Iran says its forces damaged seven oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz overnight; AP could not confirm any of themTrump says Iran is doing "everything they can" to push up oil prices before the Nov. 3 midterms, and Iran threatened U.S. bases if American escorts keep guiding ships through.
  2. Two Israeli sources tell ABC that joint strikes on Iran will almost certainly come soon after the Nov. 3 midtermsOne source said the targets would include petrochemical plants and nuclear sites such as Pickaxe Mountain, but not power plants.
  3. DeWine urges Ramaswamy to pull Acton ad but keeps his endorsement; Trump says DeWine 'probably wants a Dumocrat to win'In the ad, Democrat Amy Acton's estranged mother calls her a "liar." Ramaswamy's campaign says it will keep running.

Not news news2

  1. ProPublica finds late-arriving primary ballots in 11 rural Washington counties rose to nearly 2,000 from about 600 in 2022 after USPS cut mail pickupsMore than 500 ballots sat in one Stevens County post office box until three days after the primary.
  2. Pentagon clears two onshore wind projects, in Maine and South Dakota, the first since its April review freezeThe White House tied the clearances to keeping Senate Democrats on a bipartisan permitting bill that faces a procedural vote on Monday, Nov. 9.

News news3 stories

Ongoing35 earlier updates92 days

This story has run 36 times over 92 days, starting Jul 23.

  1. Trump Threatens to Bomb Iranian Bridges and Power Plants for Every Ship Hit in Strait of Hormuz
  2. Iran fires multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. base in Jordan; all are intercepted
  3. Iran denies Trump’s claim that new U.S. talks would start Monday
  4. Cargo ship is struck in the Strait of Hormuz
  5. Vance says the Iran talks are moving, then calls the war only half over
  6. Iran won't reopen Hormuz until the US unfreezes its assets and lifts the blockade
  7. Trump threatens to bomb Oman, the U.S. ally brokering the deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
  8. Trump declares an "economic D-Day" on Iran as Hormuz traffic runs 85% below normal
  9. UpdateU.S. goes nearly a month without large Iran strikes as Trump shifts back to sanctions; Hormuz remains closed
  10. U.S. destroys two Iranian rocket launchers loaded to mine the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at bases in Jordan, all intercepted
  11. UpdateU.S. bombs two Iranian rocket sites near the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at Jordan
  12. UpdateU.S. forces struck IRGC air-defense, radar, maritime and mine-laying sites on Iran's southern coast starting at noon on Sept. 1
  13. UpdateU.S. hits about 100 Iranian targets; Iran fires back at American bases in four countries, and a cruise missile kills 4 at a wedding
  14. Reuters weapons experts say a US munition made a direct hit on the Iranian wedding house that killed 5
  15. US destroys or disables 3 Iranian oil tankers after Iran fired ballistic missiles at a US carrier and destroyer
  16. UpdateIran says it hit an unmanned US vessel a day after the tanker strikes; Central Command calls the claim "a total lie"
  17. UpdateIran says it will declare a restricted zone near the Strait of Hormuz and will strike threats "even before" they are carried out
  18. Iran says it seized a US sea drone in Hormuz; CENTCOM says it malfunctioned a day earlier
  19. UpdateIran fires 20 missiles at a US base in Jordan; Jordan says it intercepted 18
  20. UpdateNavy plans to keep 2 carrier groups near Iran at least through 2026
  21. UpdateUnidentified projectile hits Iranian container ship off Hengam Island, killing 1 and wounding 4
  22. UpdateOil's chokepoint shifts to refineries and tankers as JPMorgan drops its baseline oil forecast
  23. UpdateTrump says he is choosing among wiping Iran out, letting it rot economically, or a deal, and would "probably" meet Pezeshkian at the UN this week
  24. UpdateIran offers to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. lifts its naval blockade as traffic falls to two ships
  25. Iran proposes seven-day ceasefire plan to reopen Strait of Hormuz and revive nuclear talks
  26. UpdateTrump rejects Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days in exchange for ending the U.S. blockade
  27. Trump expects more Iran talks this week after rejecting Iran's Hormuz offer; Iran won't soften its terms
  28. UpdateIran says its UN delegation has no talks planned with the US and will fly home Tuesday, Sept. 29; mediators keep working
  29. UpdateQatari compromise to end the U.S.-Iran war stalls; Trump denies aides' account that he offered Iran sanctions relief
  30. Rubio orders Iran's UN delegation out of New York; Trump says Iran will "sign a very fair deal, or they won't exist any longer"
  31. UpdateCRS: 81 U.S. aircraft and drones lost or damaged in Iran war, up from 42 in May
  32. Iran's security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, calls the U.S. reply to Tehran's plan to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz insufficient and says Iran has stopped responding
  33. UpdateIran targeted 24 ships in the Strait of Hormuz in two weeks, its most since the war began, by the FT's count
  34. UpdateSingapore-flagged container ship GFS Pride sinks in the Strait of Hormuz; Singapore says projectiles hit it, Iran says mines
  35. Iranian attacks on Strait of Hormuz shipping hit a record high, NBC News reports; Iran's Guards say two tankers hit mines
  36. UpdateIran says its forces damaged seven oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz overnight; AP could not confirm any of them — this issue
PBS NEWSHOURUpdateIran war

Iran says its forces damaged seven oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz overnight; AP could not confirm any of them

Trump says Iran is doing "everything they can" to push up oil prices before the Nov. 3 midterms, and Iran threatened U.S. bases if American escorts keep guiding ships through.

Iranian state TV, citing the Revolutionary Guard navy, said seven tankers caught fire or were damaged in the strait overnight. It named none of them.

The claim. Iran says four tankers were hit while transferring oil and caught fire, and three were stuck after striking naval mines. ([TS]for scale, UKMTO counted six ships attacked on Sunday, Oct. 11 alone.)

The doubt. The AP could confirm none of the seven. Britain's maritime trade office (UKMTO, which logs attacks on merchant ships) says October already has the most reported attacks of any month since March, the war's opening weeks.

What next. Iran threatened U.S. bases if American escorts keep guiding ships through the strait.

Catch upwhat happened before · 35 earlier issues
  • Sept. 23 — Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. lifted its naval blockade; daily traffic had fallen to two ships.
  • Sept. 25 — Iran proposed a seven-day ceasefire plan to reopen the strait; Trump rejected it, and the WSJ reported he expected bombing to resume after the midterms.
  • Sept. 30 — A Qatari compromise stalled; U.S. officials said major combat could return after the Nov. 3 midterms.
  • Oct. 2 — Secretary of State Marco Rubio ordered Iran's UN delegation out of New York; Trump said Iran would "sign a very fair deal, or they won't exist."
  • Oct. 8 — Congress's research service counted 81 U.S. aircraft and drones lost or damaged in the war, up from 42 in May.
  • Oct. 11 — Iran's security chief Mohsen Rezaei said Tehran had stopped answering U.S. offers and threatened undersea cables and data centers.
  • Oct. 13 — The FT counted 24 ships targeted in two weeks, a war record; Singapore-flagged container ship GFS Pride sank in the strait.
  • Oct. 17 — Iran's Guards said two tankers hit mines; CENTCOM said about 97% of roughly 400 ships crossing that week got through unhit.
34 earlier issues
What shipping records and oil prices showed this weekOct. 21: tanker Al Dasma was hit by an unknown projectile about 11 nautical miles west of Bukha, Oman; fire put out, crew safe.3 details
  • Oct. 21: tanker Al Dasma was hit by an unknown projectile about 11 nautical miles west of Bukha, Oman; fire put out, crew safe. Nothing ties it to Iran's seven.
  • Oct. 20: tanker MT Soyia was struck southeast of Al Faw, Iraq, with no reported damage or injuries.
  • U.S. crude (WTI) closed at $107.89 a barrel on Oct. 20, off a $110.01 peak on Oct. 19; it was $85.23 on Sept. 25.
Ongoing3 earlier updates9 days

This story has run 4 times over 9 days, starting Oct 14.

  1. Netanyahu pressed Trump on several calls for a new joint strike on Iran, Axios reports
  2. UpdateTrump endorses Netanyahu, saying the US will hit Iran itself if Israelis pick anyone else
  3. UpdateU.S. and Israel have drawn up plans for possible new strikes on Iran after the Nov. 3 midterms, NYT reports
  4. UpdateTwo Israeli sources tell ABC that joint strikes on Iran will almost certainly come soon after the Nov. 3 midterms — this issue
ABC NEWSUpdateIran war

Two Israeli sources tell ABC that joint strikes on Iran will almost certainly come soon after the Nov. 3 midterms

One source said the targets would include petrochemical plants and nuclear sites such as Pickaxe Mountain, but not power plants.

The Israeli account. Two Israeli sources told ABC News on Thursday, Oct. 22, that joint U.S.-Israeli strikes would almost certainly come after the election. Both said the decision is "only for Trump to decide." One said Israel's top goal is regime change in Iran, not a deal. One did not rule out Israel striking alone, but said it would still need U.S. consent.

"Hunting season is open as soon as the elections end and it's obvious that they're not going to wait long."Israeli source, to ABC News

The pledge, again. White House spokesperson Anna Kelly gave ABC the line she gave Drop Site on Wednesday, Oct. 21: the U.S. "will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections."

The talks. Asked about talks with Tehran on Wednesday night, Oct. 21, Trump said "A little bit, but we'll see what happens," then moments later: "I think we're not negotiating."

Iran's answer. Mehdi Mohammadi, an adviser to Parliament Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf, called a third war in two years "a threat to existence." He said Tehran's strategy is "zero red lines," The Guardian reports. Fars, a news agency close to the Revolutionary Guard, reported orders to Iran's military units. If a new war kills Iranian officials and civilians, they say, the response "will also include political targets."

Still open. The reporting describes plans, not an order. No final decision to resume strikes has been announced.

Catch upwhat happened before · 3 earlier issues
  • Oct. 13 — Axios, citing four sources, reported that Netanyahu had discussed a major new joint strike on Iran with Trump. A White House official called that "false."
  • Oct. 18 — Trump endorsed Netanyahu for Israel's Oct. 27 vote. He wrote that with anyone else, "America will have to do this work ourselves."
  • Oct. 19 — Vice President JD Vance said he would not endorse Netanyahu.
  • Oct. 21 — The New York Times reported U.S.-Israeli plans for possible strikes after the midterms. White House aide Anna Kelly told Drop Site no attack would come before them.
2 earlier issues
Why bomber movements are an imperfect warning of a strikeThe B-2 stealth bomber is the only U.S. plane that can drop the GBU-57, the bomb built for deep underground nuclear sites, per the…3 details
  • The B-2 stealth bomber is the only U.S. plane that can drop the GBU-57, the bomb built for deep underground nuclear sites, per the Pentagon's weapons tester.
  • April 2025: six B-2s sat beside six tankers at Diego Garcia, about half the B-2 force ready to fly, per the Federation of American Scientists.
  • June 2025: the B-2s that hit Iran's nuclear sites flew a 36-hour round trip from Missouri with no forward base, per the Air Force. An empty Diego Garcia rules nothing out.

Red take

Trump is right to keep strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities and its missile and drone arsenal on the table, because the threat is the only leverage that brings Tehran to the table. His own words, "A little bit, but we'll see what happens," then "I think we're not negotiating," show how thin the talks are. Tie his hands now and Iran simply waits out the clock while those sites stand.

Blue take

A war Congress has not voted for is being held until the ballots are counted. Israeli sources told ABC the decision rests with Trump alone, and the White House says the April 7 ceasefire ended the last fight, which slips it past the 1973 law's 60-day cap on undeclared war. Let that stand, and any president can bomb Iran's energy plants by calling the previous war over.

Ongoing1 earlier update

This story has run 2 times, starting Oct 22.

  1. Vance tells Republicans to 'stop whining' over Ramaswamy's ad using Acton's estranged mother
  2. UpdateDeWine urges Ramaswamy to pull Acton ad but keeps his endorsement; Trump says DeWine 'probably wants a Dumocrat to win' — this issue
NBC NEWSUpdateOhio governor's race

DeWine urges Ramaswamy to pull Acton ad but keeps his endorsement; Trump says DeWine 'probably wants a Dumocrat to win'

In the ad, Democrat Amy Acton's estranged mother calls her a "liar." Ramaswamy's campaign says it will keep running.

Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine, a Republican, on Thursday, Oct. 22, urged Vivek Ramaswamy's campaign to take down its ad featuring Democrat Amy Acton's estranged mother. "It's wrong to run this ad," he said, calling it "deeply, deeply troubling." But he kept his endorsement of Ramaswamy, his party's nominee to succeed him. A Ramaswamy spokesperson said the ad will keep running.

The ad. Acton's mother calls her a "liar." Acton says she has not seen or spoken to her mother in nearly 50 years. Ramaswamy's campaign says it will spend $4 million to air the ad, the AP reports.

Trump's answer. Hours later, Trump wrote on Truth Social that Ramaswamy "should keep it up." He called the ad "hitting paydirt" and said DeWine "probably wants a Dumocrat to win."

The split widens. Ashley Hinson (Rep-R Iowa), her party's Iowa Senate nominee, told ABC News on Oct. 22 the ad should come down. She called Vance's remarks "ridiculous" and "absolutely the wrong tone." Acton's fundraising surged after the ad aired, per PBS NewsHour.

Where the race stands. Marist, polling Oct. 15-18, has Acton ahead 50% to 43% among likely voters. ActiVote, polling Sept. 27-Oct. 19, has Ramaswamy up 51.4% to 48.6%.

Catch upwhat happened before · 1 earlier issue

On Wednesday, Oct. 21, Jon Husted (Sen-R Ohio) told the AP, "I would not have run that ad." The same day, Vice President JD Vance told Republicans upset over the ad to "stop whining."

Quick bites18

Courts3 bites

  1. Supreme Court lets New Hampshire refuse student IDs at the polls this November

    CBS NEWSFears for Nov. 3

    The order blocks Judge Joseph Laplante's Oct. 2 ruling that let student IDs serve as backup ID, citing the Purcell rule against courts changing election rules close to an election.

    The law and the stakesNew Hampshire's law dropping student IDs from accepted voter ID passed in April 2026.3 details
    • New Hampshire's law dropping student IDs from accepted voter ID passed in April 2026.
    • The Coalition for Open Democracy sued, arguing the law burdens and discriminates against young voters.
    • The ruling lands before the Senate race for Jeanne Shaheen's (Sen-D New Hampshire) open seat: Chris Pappas (Rep-D New Hampshire) vs. former Sen. John Sununu, a Republican.

  2. Judge bars DHS noncitizen-voting field operations that involve U.S. citizens in nine states until Nov. 3

    PBS NEWSHOURVoter-roll checks

    A federal judge in Oakland found the 'Unlawful Voter Initiative' likely violates the Voting Rights Act's ban on voter intimidation. The judge is U.S. District Judge Araceli Martínez-Olguín. She said the plan relies on target lists that are prone to error. 'There is no federal database containing citizenship status of U.S. residents,' she wrote.

    Who, where, and DHS's answerStates covered: California, Connecticut, Georgia, Missouri, Nevada, New York, Pennsylvania, Washington and Wisconsin; DHS began…3 details
    • States covered: California, Connecticut, Georgia, Missouri, Nevada, New York, Pennsylvania, Washington and Wisconsin; DHS began the operation in August, per the lawsuit.
    • Plaintiffs: California Nurses Association, National Nurses United, Voto Latino Foundation, and San Francisco and Santa Clara counties.
    • DHS says it is 'laser focused' on noncitizens who vote and has 'no plans to question or investigate people we believe to be U.S. citizens.'

  3. Judge orders Trump deposed by Dec. 11 in $10B BBC suit or risk sanctions, including dismissal

    PBS NEWSHOUR

    Miami Magistrate Judge Enjoliqué Lett set the deadline after Trump canceled an agreed Oct. 16 deposition, citing "matters of national importance," in his suit over a BBC edit that spliced his Jan. 6 speech.

    The schedule fightBBC lawyer Charles Tobin says Trump skipped Oct. 16 to campaign in Georgia, prioritizing "party politics."3 details
    • BBC lawyer Charles Tobin says Trump skipped Oct. 16 to campaign in Georgia, prioritizing "party politics."
    • Trump's lawyers asked for Jan. 11-22, 2027, which falls after discovery closes on Dec. 18.
    • Lett gave his team 30 days to produce documents: "It strains credulity that a thorough search has been done."
Federal probes of public figures3 bites

  1. Justice Department investigates Corey Lewandowski over whether he used his DHS job for personal profit

    NBC NEWS

    The early-stage probe follows a referral from the DHS inspector general, whose inquiry began with an ad campaign featuring Noem. Lewandowski's lawyer says DOJ has not contacted him and that he denies wrongdoing.

    Key factsTrump on Oct. 22: dishonest aides "have to be prosecuted...2 details
    • Trump on Oct. 22: dishonest aides "have to be prosecuted... They are stealing from me."
    • Noem required her personal written approval on any DHS contract above $100,000, per CBS News.

  2. Justice Dept indicts Louise Lucas (St Sen-D Virginia), 82, on five marijuana racketeering counts

    PBS NEWSHOUR

    The 45-page indictment charges her and six others with moving more than 100 kilograms of marijuana. Two of her daughters and a grandson are among them. Attorney General Todd Blanche said the probe began before the current Trump administration. Virginia legalized adult possession in 2021, but legal retail sales do not start until July 1, 2027. Recreational marijuana is still illegal under federal law.

    Key factsCounts: racketeering, marijuana distribution, money laundering and honest-services fraud conspiracies, plus maintaining a…3 details
    • Counts: racketeering, marijuana distribution, money laundering and honest-services fraud conspiracies, plus maintaining a drug-involved premises.
    • Attorney General Todd Blanche and FBI Director Kash Patel announced the charges in person, 12 days before the midterms. The FBI searched her Portsmouth office in May 2026.
    • Prosecutors say she used her post as Senate finance chair to shield the family's Portsmouth store, The Cannabis Outlet. They say she paid $750,000 in August 2022 for a shell company meant to hold a co-conspirator's expected marijuana license, then talked to legislators about that license in return for a bribe. Her lawyer, Anthony Capozzolo, says she will plead not guilty.

  3. Ilhan Omar denies immigration fraud, says agents seized 17 items, and will leave her DC home

    BBC NEWSUpdate

    In her first interview since the search, Ilhan Omar (Rep-D Minnesota) said agents pounded on her door around 6 a.m. and took 17 items, including phones and notebooks, and that death threats are forcing her to move out; she has not been charged.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 7 earlier issues
    • Oct. 12 — Homeland Security agents searched Omar's Washington home in a criminal immigration-fraud probe, 22 days before her election.
    • Oct. 13 — Federal prosecutor Jeanine Pirro opened a review of Omar's financial disclosures, which valued husband Tim Mynett's businesses at $6 million–$30 million for 2024.
    • Oct. 14 — Reports said agents had taken her phone, and a Minnesota grand jury had subpoenaed relatives over whether her age and family filings were falsified.
    • Oct. 16–17 — DHS Secretary Mullin said the case is headed to a grand jury; the Justice Department denied agents broke a judge's search limits.
    • Oct. 17 — Border czar Tom Homan told Fox News that Omar could "of course" be stripped of her citizenship and deported "if the evidence points that way."
    • Oct. 18 — Obama called the probe "appalling."
    • Oct. 20 — Trump said Omar "could go to jail," naming no charge, as investigators interviewed her sister.
    6 earlier issues
    What she saidOmar said 15 to 25 agents came to the home; The Guardian reports 10 to 15.3 details
    • Omar said 15 to 25 agents came to the home; The Guardian reports 10 to 15.
    • The search lasted about 5 hours, per BBC and The Guardian; ABC reports 4 to 5.
    • More than a dozen grand jury subpoenas have gone out, including to her family, per Fox News and BBC.
    Ongoing7

    This story has run 8 times over 10 days, starting Oct 13.

    1. Federal agents search Rep. Ilhan Omar's home in a criminal immigration-fraud probe, 22 days before her election
    2. UpdateFederal prosecutor Jeanine Pirro opens a review of Ilhan Omar's financial disclosures a day after agents searched her home; Trump says he takes 'no position' on deporting her
    3. UpdateAgents seized Ilhan Omar's phone in the search of her home, and a Minnesota grand jury has subpoenaed her relatives
    4. UpdateDHS Secretary Mullin says the Omar case is headed to a grand jury; her lawyers want seized items back
    5. UpdateJustice Department denies agents broke a judge's limits when they searched Rep. Ilhan Omar's home
    6. UpdateObama calls the federal probe of Rep. Ilhan Omar's citizenship 'appalling'; border czar Homan says the government could strip her citizenship and deport her
    7. Trump says Ilhan Omar "could go to jail," naming no charge, as investigators interview her sister
    8. UpdateIlhan Omar denies immigration fraud, says agents seized 17 items, and will leave her DC home — this issue
The war in Ukraine2 bites

  1. Trump says Musk restored Ukraine's Starlink but won't say whether he called him

    BBC NEWSUpdateRussia-Ukraine war

    Trump says Musk restored Ukraine's military Starlink service, but he won't say whether he called Musk. Its Starshield terminals had cut out on drones flying faster than about 160 km/h. The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump did call and that service ran more normally afterward. Hours earlier, Zelensky said the link still didn't work for drones at 400 km/h, as it once had.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 7 earlier issues

    The accounts of who ordered the cap conflict. The latest, the Journal's Oct. 20 report, says Musk did.

    • Oct. 14 — Ukraine's military Starshield satellite terminals stopped working on drones flying above 160 km/h; Musk said the U.S. military and Trump set the limit.
    • Oct. 15 — Two U.S. officials and a Western official said the order came from the White House; Thom Tillis (Sen-R North Carolina) asked the Pentagon inspector general to investigate.
    • Oct. 16 — Trump denied that he or Musk ordered the caps; nine senators asked the Pentagon watchdog who did.
    • Oct. 17 — Zelensky said road tests showed the cutoff at 161 km/h, only inside Ukraine; the network had handled 400 km/h drones before.
    • Oct. 18 — Zelensky called the slowdown a "message from American government"; Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called that "reckless."
    • Oct. 20 — The Wall Street Journal reported Musk personally ordered the slowdown after raising it with Trump and other senior officials.
    6 earlier issues
    On the recordTrump on whether he called Musk: "I don't want to say.5 details
    • Trump on whether he called Musk: "I don't want to say. I don't want to comment one way or the other."
    • Kevin Cramer (Sen-R North Dakota): "I don't think it could have possibly happened without Elon Musk's knowledge."
    • Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Wednesday, Oct. 21: "The bottom line is that that is governed by a private commercial contract as to how their stuff can be used and what speeds they'll allow it to be used at."
    • Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Tuesday, Oct. 20: "There are terms of service that ultimately need to be complied to, and that's where Starlink has the option to make those decisions."
    • Rubio promised to get back to Zelensky within about 48 hours.
    Ongoing7

    This story has run 8 times over 8 days, starting Oct 15.

    1. UpdateUkraine's military Starshield satellite terminals stop working above 160 km/h; Musk says the U.S. military and Trump set the limit
    2. UpdateTwo U.S. officials and a Western official say the order to cap Ukraine's Starshield terminals came from the White House
    3. UpdateTrump denies ordering speed caps on Ukraine's Starshield terminals; nine senators ask Pentagon watchdog who did
    4. UpdateZelensky says Ukrainian road tests show Starlink and Starshield cut out above 161 km/h only inside Ukraine
    5. UpdateBessent declines three times to say whether Ukraine is a U.S. ally; Zelensky says backing Putin would be a 'historic mistake'
    6. UpdateTrump administration has not approved Patriot interceptor transfers to Ukraine, including from European allies' stocks
    7. UpdateMusk personally ordered last week's slowdown of Ukraine's Starshield military satellite service, WSJ reports
    8. UpdateTrump says Musk restored Ukraine's Starlink but won't say whether he called him — this issue

  2. Russia fires 21 ballistic missiles at Kyiv hours after Putin agrees to talks

    REUTERSUpdateRussia-Ukraine war

    Russia fired three waves of missiles at Kyiv and struck 12 regions, killing at least 4 people, hours after Putin agreed 'in principle' to U.S.-Russia-Ukraine talks.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 1 earlier issue
    • Oct. 9 — Trump lifted U.S. sanctions on Russian diesel; a U.S. official said Zelensky had ignored repeated requests to stop hitting Russian refineries.
    • Oct. 11–12 — Trump said Ukraine needs "a new president," then announced a refinery-only energy ceasefire that Moscow never confirmed.
    • Oct. 16 — Ukraine struck a Russian refinery, ending the three-day pause; Zelensky accused Washington of cutting intelligence and throttling Starlink to force it.
    • Oct. 16–17 — EU leaders said they "regret" the diesel sanctions relief; Trump called Zelensky "not a good guy."
    • Oct. 18–19 — Zelensky offered to negotiate "anywhere," a Ukrainian drone hit a St. Petersburg oil terminal, and he held a 40-minute call with Witkoff and Kushner.
    • Oct. 20 — Trump told Zelensky to let "somebody else" negotiate; Brian Fitzpatrick (Rep-R Pennsylvania) and Don Bacon (Rep-R Nebraska) threatened to block Trump's agenda over Ukraine.
    • Oct. 21 — After Oslo talks, U.S. missile-attack warnings to Ukraine resumed; Witkoff took the proposals to Putin, and Sergei Lavrov (Foreign Minister, Russia) ruled out "political concessions."
    • Oct. 22 — Putin agreed "in principle" to restart three-way talks frozen since February; a technical round could come around Nov. 10 in Abu Dhabi.
    The night and the reactionZelensky called the attack 'demonstrative' and said Russia used cluster warheads; he counts 170 Russian strikes on Ukrainian…3 details
    • Zelensky called the attack 'demonstrative' and said Russia used cluster warheads; he counts 170 Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure since Oct. 11.
    • Russia's Defense Ministry says it downed 808 Ukrainian drones overnight; Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin says more than 600 were aimed at the capital.
    • The Kremlin says talks will take a long time; Vance says there is 'a very tall mountain to climb.'
    Ongoing1

    This story has run 2 times, starting Oct 22.

    1. UpdatePutin agrees 'in principle' to restart U.S.-Russia-Ukraine delegation talks, suspended since February
    2. UpdateRussia fires 21 ballistic missiles at Kyiv hours after Putin agrees to talks — this issue
The fight over midterm voting2 bites

  1. AG Todd Blanche won't rule out DOJ trying to block states from certifying midterm results

    NBC NEWS

    Attorney General Todd Blanche would not rule out the Justice Department trying to stop states from certifying midterm results. DOJ has already sued California over a list of 20,930 voter records it calls likely noncitizens. That is under 0.1% of the state's 23.2 million registered voters. Los Angeles County says only 7,035 of them have addresses there. In a preliminary sample of 200, about 43% were canceled registrations and over 70% had no voting history. Of those with a recorded birthplace, 38.9% were born in the U.S., the county told the court. Blanche said it is "never our intention" to "improperly interfere with elections or the state certification process."

    State and local officials certify results. David Becker of the nonpartisan Center for Election Innovation and Research said Thursday, Oct. 22, that DOJ has "no authority" over that process. He said courts would likely block any attempt, per The Independent.

    Key factsBlanche: "To say that there's no circumstances that we would ever do that — of course I'm not going to say that."2 details
    • Blanche: "To say that there's no circumstances that we would ever do that — of course I'm not going to say that."
    • The suit asks a judge to stop California counting those voters' mail ballots. NBC notes that seven other states (CO, HI, NV, OR, UT, VT, WA) and D.C. also mail every voter a ballot.

  2. DOJ is notifying states and counties where it will send about 1,000 election monitors

    WASHINGTON EXAMINERVoter-roll checks

    A DOJ spokesman called it "the routine election monitoring the department has done for decades." He said monitors "will be in all 50 states, including Utah." The past counts below are jurisdictions, not monitors. They do not compare directly with the 1,000 figure.

    Jurisdictions DOJ monitored in past cycles (not monitor counts)2020: 44 jurisdictions3 details
    • 2020: 44 jurisdictions
    • 2022: 64 jurisdictions
    • 2024: 86 jurisdictions
Also tonight6 bites

  1. Workers' cost for employer family health coverage rose 9% to $7,471 this year, KFF survey finds

    THE HILL

    KFF's survey of more than 1,900 employers found the average family premium rose 5% to $28,303, while wages grew 3.7% and inflation ran 2.7%.

    The rest of the billSingle coverage: premium $9,804 (up 5%); worker share $1,672 (up 16%)3 details
    • Single coverage: premium $9,804 (up 5%); worker share $1,672 (up 16%)
    • Average single deductible: $2,624 at small firms vs. $1,772 at large ones
    • 44% of large employers (200+ workers) raised workers' share of premiums

  2. State Dept reportedly asks career diplomats seeking promotion how they voted in 2016, 2020 and 2024

    THE HILL

    The State Department asks career diplomats seeking promotion how they voted in the last 3 presidential elections, the Washington Sun reports. Per the Sun, State said it screens for 'fidelity' to the president's vision. It also checks campaign donations. No other outlet has confirmed the voting questions.

    What the report saysPer the Sun, applicants for mid-to-upper-level Foreign Service posts are asked about 3 presidential elections: 2016, 2020 and 2024.4 details
    • Per the Sun, applicants for mid-to-upper-level Foreign Service posts are asked about 3 presidential elections: 2016, 2020 and 2024.
    • The Sun cites six current and former State officials; three had spoken with people who were asked.
    • A State spokesperson told The Hill on Thursday, Oct. 22, that it rejects "this absurd premise" that people are asked about political affiliation.
    • Federal law bars officials from basing personnel decisions on political affiliation, per the U.S. Office of Special Counsel.

  3. Calley Means, top MAHA adviser to RFK Jr., quits HHS reportedly over stalled ultraprocessed-food definition

    POLITICORFK Jr.'s vaccine moves

    Means was reportedly frustrated that HHS still has not released a federal definition of ultraprocessed foods, which the administration teased in August 2026.

    Behind the exitAn administration official called a postponed meeting on the definition "the straw that broke the camel's back," saying the…3 details
    • An administration official called a postponed meeting on the definition "the straw that broke the camel's back," saying the process had been "continuously stonewalled."
    • MAHA activists were furious at Trump's Feb. 18 executive order boosting glyphosate production, Reuters and the Washington Post reported at the time.
    • Means on leaving: "This movement is in the first inning and just getting started."

  4. US embassy accuses Canada of meddling in the midterms; Canada bars its US diplomats from meeting candidates

    THE HILLCanada trade war

    Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney rejected the charge that Canada targets US states for political pressure as he announced a nearly C$9 billion (about US$6.2 billion) tariff-relief package. The charge came from an Oct. 21 embassy fact sheet. It quoted Industry Minister Mélanie Joly saying in August that Canada was targeting US states "to put political pressure."

    The rest of itCanada's written guidance bars its US-based diplomats from meeting, or even being in the same room with, midterm candidates (The…3 details
    • Canada's written guidance bars its US-based diplomats from meeting, or even being in the same room with, midterm candidates (The Hill, Politico).
    • Doug Ford (Premier, Ontario), also named by the embassy, denied the charge.
    • Carney, after praising Canada's reduced dependence on the US: "Careful, they might think that's election interference."

  5. Trump administration deported about 980,000 people in 18 months; 20% had criminal convictions

    STATELINE

    Marc Rosenblum, DHS's former chief statistician, wrote the analysis for the Migration Policy Institute. It puts fiscal 2026 on pace for about 660,000 deportations. That is 26% above the Biden yearly average for fiscal 2021–2024, but well below the 1.86 million in fiscal 2000.

    Who was removed28% of deportees who had lived in the U.S. two years or more had a criminal conviction, vs. 20% of all deportees.3 details
    • 28% of deportees who had lived in the U.S. two years or more had a criminal conviction, vs. 20% of all deportees.
    • Rosenblum, who Stateline says resigned in protest, said the data do not show the administration is mainly deporting serious criminals.
    • Border czar Tom Homan: "Mass deportation is happening."

  6. Hegseth bars Pentagon personnel from betting on military operations using nonpublic information

    CBS NEWSHegseth's Pentagon

    The memo to senior leaders and combatant commanders follows the case of Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a Special Forces soldier accused of betting more than $33,000 on Maduro's removal and winning more than $409,000.

    • Dated Oct. 20, 2026, sent to senior leadership and combatant commanders
    • Names prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi
    • Hegseth's reason: "Our enemies watch movements in these markets."
Elections2 bites

  1. Democrats lead Republicans 63-26 among likely voters aged 18-29, Harvard Youth Poll finds

    AXIOS

    Only 9% of young adults say the country is headed in the right direction. Fewer say they will definitely vote, a drop driven mainly by Republicans.

    The numbersYoung Republicans who say they will definitely vote: 34% in 2026, down from 46% in 20223 details
    • Young Republicans who say they will definitely vote: 34% in 2026, down from 46% in 2022
    • Trump disapproval among young adults: 73% overall, 77% on the economy, 69% among young men
    • Generic House ballot among all voters 18-29, not just likely voters: Democrats 45%, Republicans 24%

  2. Wedgewood Polls admits it fabricated poll data; second firm SoCal Strategies takes its website offline

    POLITICO

    Wedgewood admitted the fake data on the night of Tuesday, Oct. 20, as FiftyPlusOne got ready to publish an investigation. It called the fakes an "experimental project." SoCal Strategies went dark after FiftyPlusOne asked about its data quality and its ties to Wedgewood.

    Who says it cost themMallory McMorrow (St Sen-D Michigan), on a fake June 29 poll putting her at 9% in Michigan's Democratic U.S. Senate primary: "It…2 details
    • Mallory McMorrow (St Sen-D Michigan), on a fake June 29 poll putting her at 9% in Michigan's Democratic U.S. Senate primary: "It killed us." She quit the race July 5. Abdul El-Sayed won the Aug. 4 primary.
    • A pro-McMorrow super PAC told Politico that donors pulled back over that poll. At the time, the PAC was already being outspent.
    Ongoing2

    This story has run 3 times over 2 days, starting Oct 21.

    1. FiftyPlusOne says pollster Wedgewood faked survey data; Wedgewood now calls its polls a "social experiment"
    2. UpdateDecision Desk HQ pulls 17 faked Wedgewood polls; McMorrow says one cost her donors
    3. Wedgewood Polls admits it fabricated poll data; second firm SoCal Strategies takes its website offline — this issue

Elections22 races

The midterms · 11 days out · November 3, 2026

D or R take the House / Senate?

Oct 22, 8:48 PM CT

U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 93%, Kalshi 91%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 69%, Kalshi 69%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

U.S. House — Democrats take it, 91.45–92.50%
93%91%chance Democrats take it · 1.0pp apart · both venues up this week
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 93% and Kalshi 91%.
U.S. Senate — Democrats take it, 68.5%
69%69%chance Democrats take it · the same price on both · both venues up this week
U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 69% and Kalshi 69%.

3 closest races

  • wIowa SenateAshley Hinson 57.3%▲0.7Josh Turek 42.8%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election

    Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).

    An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa Senate

    Oct 22, 8:48 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 57.0%, Kalshi 57.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 43.0%, Kalshi 42.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aaGeorgia governorKeisha Lance Bottoms 61.3%▲11.6Rick Jackson 39.8%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election

    Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).

    Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead after gaining about twelve points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia governor

    Oct 22, 8:48 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 62.0%, Kalshi 60.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 39.0%, Kalshi 40.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • abNevada governorAaron Ford 66.0%▲13.0Joe Lombardo 33.5%

    POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election

    Aaron Ford (D) faces Joe Lombardo (R).

    Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead, but no race here has moved more this week: the Republican side is down about fourteen points.

    Two markets, one question

    Nevada governor

    Oct 22, 8:48 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nevada governor. Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 66.5%, Kalshi 65.5%; Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 33.5%, Kalshi 33.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

The other 19 races22 races · 11 still in doubt · Oct 22, 8:48 PM CT · markets, not polling

Senate9 of 10

  • vAlaska SenateMary Peltola 74.5%Dan Sullivan 26.0%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election

    Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).

    A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska Senate

    Oct 22, 8:48 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 74.5%, Kalshi 74.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 25.5%, Kalshi 26.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • adGeorgia SenateJon Ossoff 95.90%▲0.3Collins 4.05%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election

    Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia Senate

    Oct 22, 8:48 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.1pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 96.45%, Kalshi 95.35%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 3.5%, Kalshi 4.6%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.1pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • tMaine SenateTroy Jackson 66.3%▲8.6Susan Collins 33.8%

    POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election

    Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).

    Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side lost about nine points in six days.

    Two markets, one question

    Maine Senate

    Oct 22, 8:48 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 67.0%, Kalshi 65.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 32.0%, Kalshi 35.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • xMichigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed 69.5%▲1.1Mike Rogers 30.3%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election

    Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan Senate

    Oct 22, 8:48 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 70.5%, Kalshi 68.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 29.0%, Kalshi 31.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aeNebraska SenatePete Ricketts 74.0%▲1.3Dan Osborn 25.5%

    POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election

    Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Nebraska Senate

    Oct 22, 8:48 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 72.5%, Kalshi 75.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 26.5%, Kalshi 24.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • afNew Hampshire SenateChris Pappas 90.00%▲1.29.22%Sununu

    POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election

    Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    New Hampshire Senate

    Oct 22, 8:48 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.4pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 90.5%, Kalshi 89.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 8.50%, Kalshi 9.95%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.4pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • acNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 96.43%▲1.0Whatley 3.67%

    POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election

    Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    North Carolina Senate

    Oct 22, 8:48 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 96.65%, Kalshi 96.20%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 3.45%, Kalshi 3.90%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • yOhio SenateSherrod Brown 69.8%▲7.1Jon Husted 30.5%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election

    Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).

    A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about seven points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio Senate

    Oct 22, 8:48 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 70.0%, Kalshi 69.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 30.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • uTexas SenateJames Talarico 66.8%▲5.2Ken Paxton 33.0%

    POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election

    James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side lost about six points in five days.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas Senate

    Oct 22, 8:48 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 67.0%, Kalshi 66.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 32.5%, Kalshi 33.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Governors10 of 12

  • ahAlaska governor11.25%88.5%WilsonBegich 0.23%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election

    Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).

    Wilson holds a clear lead after losing about ten points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska governor

    Oct 22, 8:48 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 12.0%, Kalshi 10.5%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 0.05%, Kalshi 0.40%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • ajArizona governorKatie Hobbs 92.15%▲3.2Biggs 7.97%

    POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election

    Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about three points in five days.

    Two markets, one question

    Arizona governor

    Oct 22, 8:48 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.9pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 92.5%, Kalshi 91.8%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 7.00%, Kalshi 8.95%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.9pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • anFlorida governorByron Donalds 80.5%▲1.2Jolly 19.5%

    POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election

    Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).

    Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Florida governor

    Oct 22, 8:48 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 80.5%, Kalshi 80.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 19.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • agIowa governorRob Sand 87.5%12.5%Lahn

    POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election

    Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa governor

    Oct 22, 8:48 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 88.5%, Kalshi 86.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 11.5%, Kalshi 13.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aiMichigan governorJocelyn Benson 93.00%James 6.63%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election

    Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan governor

    Oct 22, 8:48 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.3pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 93.6%, Kalshi 92.4%; John James (R): Polymarket 5.95%, Kalshi 7.30%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.3pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • alNew York governorKathy Hochul 95.42%▲1.0Blakeman 4.47%

    POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election

    Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    New York governor

    Oct 22, 8:48 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 95.80%, Kalshi 95.05%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 4.00%, Kalshi 4.95%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • sOhio governorAmy Acton 83.0%▲12.517.0%Ramaswamy

    POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election

    Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).

    Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side lost about thirteen points in six days.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio governor

    Oct 22, 8:48 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 83.5%, Kalshi 82.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 16.5%, Kalshi 17.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • amPennsylvania governorJosh Shapiro 97.50%Garrity 2.45%

    POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election

    Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Pennsylvania governor

    Oct 22, 8:48 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.4pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 97.65%, Kalshi 97.35%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.25%, Kalshi 2.65%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.4pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • akTexas governorGreg Abbott 68.2%▲7.331.5%Hinojosa

    POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election

    Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead after losing about eight points in five days.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas governor

    Oct 22, 8:48 PM CT
    widest venue gap 4.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 68.8%, Kalshi 67.5%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 29.5%, Kalshi 33.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • zWisconsin governorDavid Crowley 80.5%▲0.220.0%Tiffany

    POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election

    David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).

    An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Wisconsin governor

    Oct 22, 8:48 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 80.5%, Kalshi 80.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Oct 22, 8:48 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.

Not news news2 stories

PROPUBLICAMail-ballot rules

ProPublica finds late-arriving primary ballots in 11 rural Washington counties rose to nearly 2,000 from about 600 in 2022 after USPS cut mail pickups

More than 500 ballots sat in one Stevens County post office box until three days after the primary.

A ProPublica analysis published Thursday, Oct. 22, found that Postal Service cost-cutting delayed mail ballots in rural areas, driving up rejections for arriving late in this year's primaries. USPS consolidated mail processing and cut pickups from twice a day to once at many post offices 50 or more miles from a processing plant, which pushed postmarks back. The effects were clearest in the five states with detailed ballot data.

What next. A Sept. 30 USPS directive orders hand postmarks and daily ballot runs to election offices at affected rural post offices starting Monday, Oct. 26, eight days before the Tuesday, Nov. 3 general election. It does not restore the second daily pickup. Postal Service leaders say such delays are less likely in the general election, per ProPublica.

BackgroundHow Washington voters can beat the lost second pickup3 facts
  • Mailing late? Ask the counter clerk for a hand cancellation; Washington counts it as a postmark.
  • Official drop boxes close at 8 p.m. Pacific on Tuesday, Nov. 3, and the state strongly recommends them over the mail.
  • The signature-fix process cannot rescue a ballot postmarked after Election Day.
WASHINGTON EXAMINER

Pentagon clears two onshore wind projects, in Maine and South Dakota, the first since its April review freeze

The White House tied the clearances to keeping Senate Democrats on a bipartisan permitting bill that faces a procedural vote on Monday, Nov. 9.

On Thursday, Oct. 22, the Pentagon signed off on two onshore wind farms, one in Maine and one in South Dakota. They are the first to clear military review since those reviews stalled in April.

The pitch. The White House says more approvals are coming. The bill it wants passed was introduced Sept. 30 and would speed federal permits for energy projects. ([TS]two down. The 106 are the stalled projects the groups who sued could verify; Bloomberg's roughly 300 is everything awaiting Pentagon approval.)

“The Trump administration is removing all barriers clearing the way for the Senate's permitting reform bill to pass.”White House official

The offshore fight. The clearances came days after the Justice Department moved against offshore wind permits. Sheldon Whitehouse (Sen-D Rhode Island) warned then: “This is how you blow up a permitting deal.”

Still open. The pledge covers about 30 of roughly 300 wind projects awaiting Pentagon approval, a person familiar with it told Bloomberg.

What the Nov. 9 vote needs to start debate on the billVotes needed to proceed: 603 details
  • Votes needed to proceed: 60
  • Republican senators: 53
  • Non-Republican votes needed if every Republican votes yes: 7
15 stories that didn't make the cutSeen by the desk, ranked, and not run. The number is where each stood in the day's order.

News

  • 47Trump signs an executive order aimed at lowering housing and mortgage costsTrump signed an executive order aimed at lowering housing and mortgage costs; it ran thin on mechanism and lost out to election and Iran news.
  • 48AI-discovered PHP flaws set off a scramble to patch websitesAI-discovered PHP flaws set off a scramble to patch websites; a notable AI-security moment, but no clear policy hook yet.
  • 49Trump invokes the Defense Production Act for oil production and refiningTrump invoked the Defense Production Act for oil production and refining, a major energy move squeezed out by the Iran and Hormuz leads.
  • 50Market sell-off on Iran war fears and AI spendingMarkets sold off on Iran war fears and AI spending worries; it shows economic fallout but adds little beyond the Iran leads.
  • 51CDC to require Ebola travel attestations from international passengersThe CDC will require Ebola travel attestations from international passengers, a notable health rule that drew little attention amid election news.
  • 52Supreme Court rejects Trump bid to restrict medical treatment for transgender inmatesThe Supreme Court rejected Trump's bid to restrict medical treatment for transgender inmates; the only source was a video explainer.
  • 53UnitedHealthcare and Humana Medicare Advantage cancellations to hit 1 millionUnitedHealthcare and Humana Medicare Advantage cancellations will hit 1 million people, a big coverage shock that lost out to the KFF cost item.
  • 54Musk gives another $76M to boost Republicans; Talarico says Musk is buying his own senatorMusk gave another $76M to boost Republicans, and Talarico says Musk is buying a senator; strong money-in-politics news that lost out on space.
  • 55Researchers say Russian operatives likely spread fake videos targeting James TalaricoResearchers say Russian operatives likely spread fake videos targeting James Talarico; a real interference story, but the attribution is hedged.
  • 57What the national early-vote data shows two weeks outNational early-vote data two weeks out is worth tracking, but this was a TV analysis segment without firm figures.
  • 59Possible DOJ denaturalization case against Omar: her birth date, real-name claims and what happens to her seatA possible DOJ denaturalization case against Omar raises questions about her seat; it adds context but overlaps the published Omar update.
  • 60Tillis says Stephen Miller, Hegseth and RFK Jr. should be firedTillis says Stephen Miller, Hegseth and RFK Jr.
  • 61Foreign ministers of seven countries, including Saudi Arabia and Turkey, meet in Istanbul on Friday, Oct. 23, on Iran, Yemen and the Palestinians

Election related

  • 56AIPAC halts candidate endorsements and direct contributions amid backlash against IsraelAIPAC halted candidate endorsements and direct contributions amid backlash against Israel, a notable shift that was crowded out by the election items.
  • 58Democrats sue the administration over alleged election pressure campaignDemocrats sued the administration over an alleged election pressure campaign; it overlaps the DOJ monitor and certification items already in the issue.

More on the Elections page