U.S. bombs two Iranian rocket sites near the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at Jordan

The strike on Larak Island killed two, ended a month without acknowledged attacks, and pushed Brent crude above $90 a barrel.

U.S. forces struck two Iranian rocket launch sites on Larak Island on Sunday, Aug. 31, after watching crews prepare rockets carrying sea mines for the Strait of Hormuz. The attack ended about one month without a publicly confirmed U.S.-Iran exchange. Iran said two people were killed and fired ballistic missiles at U.S. sites in Jordan. Jordan intercepted eight missiles. The United Arab Emirates separately intercepted one Iranian drone over its territorial waters. Trump said the United States would respond again. He is considering a U.S. Central Command plan for periodic limited strikes against rebuilt Iranian radar, air-defense and anti-ship systems near the strait. One U.S. official called the approach an effort to "mow the lawn." Brent crude rose above $90 a barrel after the fighting resumed, though the sources give no earlier price for comparison.

What "mow the lawn" commits to, and what it leaves openIran has already rebuilt fast: the last confirmed U.S. strike on its coastal radar and defense sites was July 29, and by Aug. 31…3 details

Iran has already rebuilt fast: the last confirmed U.S. strike on its coastal radar and defense sites was July 29, and by Aug. 31 officials said the radar and anti-ship work was underway again — roughly 33 days.
No published trigger. Officials have not said what counts as enough reconstitution to strike: a finished launcher, a radar switching on, or a shot fired.
No promised heads-up for Congress. After the renewed July strikes, Trump used the War Powers Resolution's 48-hour after-the-fact report, and the White House has not committed to advance notice this time.

The last U.S. strike on Iran's mine-laying crews near the strait was July 29, after which Trump switched to sanctions.

UpdateThe month-long lull is over

Before Larak, roughly a month passed with no publicly confirmed attacks between American and Iranian forces — the longest quiet stretch since the war opened in February. The July 29 U.S. strikes on Iranian coastal-surveillance and air-defense sites started that clock. It ran out this week.

Ongoing1 earlier update

This story has run 2 times, starting Aug 31.

Aug 31U.S.-led venture gets 25-year rights to 17 Venezuelan oil fields and access to 65 billion barrels
Sep 1UpdatePentagon takes a 35% stake in the venture given exclusive rights to 17 Venezuelan oil fields — this issue

PBS NEWSHOURUpdateVenezuela oil deal

Pentagon takes a 35% stake in the venture given exclusive rights to 17 Venezuelan oil fields

Officials reach 55% by adding the Pentagon's 35% equity stake to a separate State Department right to buy a fifth of the oil at cost. The equity stake itself is a minority one.

The agreement announced Monday, Aug. 31, gives one company the exclusive right to develop 17 Venezuelan oil fields. That company, North American Blue Energy Partners, is a joint venture backed by the Pentagon. Chinese and Russian companies ran some of those fields until now, according to Reuters. Venezuela pumped about 1.1 million barrels a day in the second quarter of 2026, and getting its fields back to full capacity is estimated to cost at least $100 billion. Analysts told CBS News that three things stand in the way: worn-out equipment, heavy crude that few refineries can process, and unsettled legal claims over the fields. They said it could take 5 to 15 years before enough Venezuelan oil reaches the market to change what Americans pay for gasoline. Delcy Rodríguez (Acting President, Venezuela) called the arrangement "win-win," citing production, jobs, investment in infrastructure and money for the state.

What the announced structure leaves off paperThe 55% is not an ownership share.7 details

The 55% is not an ownership share. It adds the Office of Strategic Capital's 35% of the venture's parent to the State Department's separate right to buy 20% of output at production cost. The disclosed terms give the Pentagon a minority equity interest.
The Pentagon's Office of Strategic Capital (the unit that finances companies it treats as strategic) says its support can also take the form of a loan or a loan guarantee. The claim that the deal costs nothing does not rule out taxpayer exposure later.
No signed agreement or warrant terms have been published. Reporting describes penny warrants — the right to buy shares later for almost nothing — which require almost no cash up front and would conceal any other consideration.
Venezuela's 2026 hydrocarbons reform (its rewritten oil law) requires pre-existing production-sharing contracts, which split output between a company and the state, to be adjusted within 180 days, and it bars worsening their agreed terms. That hands displaced operators a claim to bring.
China's 2024 investment treaty with Venezuela covers investments already in place and lets investors take expropriation claims — arguments that a state seized their property — to arbitration against Venezuela.
The White House promises dividends "for the United States" but names no receiving account. Treasury's published default sends proceeds from a federal security sale to the agency that owns it; whether that default governs this deal cannot be known until the executed agreement or Treasury's own accounting records appear.
The venture already pumps roughly 200,000 barrels a day in Venezuela, so the announced target above 1.5 million barrels a day is not all new production.

Red take

Nothing here moves a gasoline price for 5 to 15 years, and the Pentagon's own financing language leaves room for a loan or guarantee later — that exposure should be capped on paper. But 65 billion barrels of proven reserves across 17 fields, several run until now by Chinese and Russian operators, change hands once. A 35% stake plus the right to buy a fifth at production cost keeps the upside of that rebuild with the country underwriting it, not only the bill.

Blue take

Sixty-five billion barrels moving out of Chinese and Russian hands is worth waiting for; the 5 to 15 years analysts gave CBS News is not the problem. The problem is that the public is being asked to hold a 35% stake against a rebuild costing at least $100 billion with no executed agreement published, no warrant terms disclosed, and no named account to receive a dollar of the promised dividends. Terms that thin are a claim on the upside, not a share of it.

BLOOMBERGGovernment funding

House votes Sept. 1 on a stopgap that funds the government to Dec. 11, pushing the shutdown deadline past the midterms

The Senate already passed it; House leaders want it done in a day, moving the next funding cliff five weeks past the Nov. 3 election.

The House returned Monday, Aug. 31, after a five-week recess and prepared to vote Tuesday, Sept. 1, on a stopgap spending bill already passed by the Senate. The measure would fund federal agencies through Dec. 11, 2026, which is 38 days after the Nov. 3 midterm elections. Tim Moore (Rep-R North Carolina) said the "votes are there" for passage. Other legislation remains stalled. "The big bills will probably have to wait until after the election," said Morgan Griffith (Rep-R Virginia).

What the Senate loaded onto the stopgap beyond flat fundingExtends federal highway programs and Highway Trust Fund authority — the money that pays for road and bridge projects — to Dec. 11…3 details

Extends federal highway programs and Highway Trust Fund authority — the money that pays for road and bridge projects — to Dec. 11 alongside the funding itself
Blocks a proposed White House budget-office rule that would give political appointees more say over which federal grants get approved
Delays by 30 days a national ban on most intoxicating hemp products that was set to take effect

Red take

Flat funding to Dec. 11 gives no agency a raise. It carries highway programs and Highway Trust Fund authority to the same date, so road and bridge work does not stall in September. The fair objection is that all 12 spending bills now land in a lame-duck December. That is a real cost. It is still a smaller cost than a September lapse with no full-year bills ready, and Moore says the "votes are there."

Blue take

Vote for what the Senate attached. Agencies run at existing levels, not new ones. The $1 billion for early battleship work is gone. So is the rule letting political appointees pick which grants clear. The cost is Griffith's own line: "the big bills will probably have to wait until after the election." That means 12 bills crammed into one December package, written by members already heading home. Those wins go back on the table then, with less leverage to keep them.

Trade talks with Canada collapse, leaving 50% U.S. tariffs on $27.6 billion of Canadian goods

Each side says the other blew up the deal, and the U.S. trade representative answers to House Republicans this week as the tariffs turn into a campaign problem.

The United States imposed a 50% tariff on $27.6 billion of Canadian goods beginning Aug. 22, 2026. Canada answered with tariffs of up to 50% on U.S. imports, effective Sept. 8, 2026. Scott Bessent (Treasury Secretary) said Mark Carney (Prime Minister, Canada) walked away from the proposed agreement at the last minute. Canadian officials said U.S. negotiators wanted Ottawa to loosen rules requiring streaming and online-video services to support Canadian and French-language programming. Jamieson Greer (U.S. Trade Representative) called that account “a funny, fake story.” He is scheduled to answer questions from House Republicans during the week of Aug. 31, 2026.

The current list spans 569 tariff categories, against 353 in the 2018 steel and aluminum dispute.

The two sides had been negotiating since Trump's 50% tariffs took effect Aug. 22, with Canada's matching tariffs due to land Sept. 8.

UpdateWhat changed since yesterday

Yesterday's issue ran on Trump's description of the order as a rejection of all Canadian imports, against an enacted list covering about 5% of imports from Canada. New today: each government blames the other by name for the collapse of the talks, and House Republicans have called the U.S. trade representative in to answer for the tariffs this week.

U.S. goods trade with Canada

Red take

The 569-category list spares energy, potash, fish and critical minerals — the inputs American refiners and farmers cannot quickly replace. The 50% falls on $27.6 billion of goods with substitutes. Americans pay part of it, and Canada's counter of up to 50% will land on exporters next week. That cost is real. But a tariff imposed by proclamation can come off by proclamation, the day Ottawa comes back to the table.

Blue take

About 26% of last year's tariff increases reached consumer prices. The rest came out of importers, retailers and sellers — thinner margins, smaller orders, fewer hires here at home. Canada's answer of up to 50% hits American exporters next week. Yes, the list spares energy, potash and critical minerals, and a proclamation can lift it tomorrow. That is the trouble. Nobody hires or signs a year of orders against a tariff that moves on one person's word.

FTC and 22 states sue Amazon, saying a hidden auction rule overcharged advertisers $20 billion

The suit, filed Monday, Aug. 31, says more than 1 million brands and sellers paid close to their own maximum bid in nearly 80% of the ad auctions they won.

The Federal Trade Commission and 22 state attorneys general from both parties sued Amazon on Monday, Aug. 31. They say the company rigged the auctions that decide which product ads appear in its search results. Amazon told advertisers it ran a "second-price" auction: the winner pays one cent more than the second-place bid. Regulators say that in 2019 Amazon quietly added a hidden floor price it set itself. The winner then paid whichever number was higher — the real runner-up bid, or Amazon's own invented one, up to the winner's maximum. The FTC says the effect shows up in the totals. Winners of Sponsored Products ads (the ads sellers buy to appear on Amazon's own search page) paid nearly their full bid in almost 80% of the auctions they won. That comes to at least $20 billion in improper charges to more than 1 million advertisers, brands and sellers. Some of that cost reached shoppers in higher product prices, the complaint says; it puts no number on how much. A former Amazon employee quoted in the complaint said the system enabled prices "beyond what [can] be achieved through advertiser competition." Amazon denies misleading anyone. It says the FTC misunderstands how its ad system works. It points to figures it released: average winning bids on Sponsored Products search ads fell 50% between 2019 and 2025, and cost per click, adjusted for inflation, was flat from 2019 to 2024. North Carolina Attorney General Jeff Jackson wrote that "we believe Amazon found a way to charge a few extra pennies to an enormous number of transactions."

What Amazon's rebuttal numbers do and do not answerAmazon says that in roughly 92% of ad placements, a lower bidder won.4 details

Amazon says that in roughly 92% of ad placements, a lower bidder won. That speaks to who wins an auction, not what the winner is charged.
Amazon says that choosing ads by relevance, rather than by bid alone, saved advertisers an estimated $8 billion from 2021 through 2025. That is Amazon's own estimate of a discount, not a test of the alleged surcharge.
Amazon has not published the underlying auctions, the bid distributions or the method behind any of those figures.
The FTC's claim is narrower: the same winner would have paid one cent above the genuine runner-up. Average bids can fall while individual winners still pay above that line.

Nine more drugmakers sign Trump Medicaid pricing deals, bringing total to 26

The nine midsize firms pledged $19.6 billion in U.S. manufacturing; no drug, price or savings figure has been released.

Nine pharmaceutical companies agreed to offer medicines at discounted prices to every state Medicaid program, raising the announced total from 17 companies to 26. The system links U.S. prices to lower prices in other developed countries, where prescription drugs cost nearly one-third as much. Trump said participating companies represent 90% of the domestic pharmaceutical market. The nine new firms also pledged $19.6 billion for U.S. manufacturing, though the sources give no earlier total for comparison. No source identifies the resulting savings for patients or governments. Medicaid already receives discounts required by law, and its enrollees generally have limited prescription copays. Trump called the terms "a tremendous discount" and said the remaining companies "have no choice" but to join.

What the deals do not sayWhich medicines are covered, and at what price — the White House lists only disease categories, not drugs.3 details

Which medicines are covered, and at what price — the White House lists only disease categories, not drugs.
How much of the $19.6 billion is new: CSL's pledge rests on a $1.5 billion expansion it has been building toward since 2018, and Kyowa Kirin's North Carolina plant broke ground in August 2024.
What "90% of the market" measures — revenue, prescriptions, units or covered drugs. No denominator has been published.

Red take

Medicaid is the wrong place to look for the payoff: the statutory rebate often already exceeds the most-favored-nation price, and part of the $19.6 billion — CSL's expansion, Kyowa Kirin's 2024 groundbreaking — was committed before any deal. What 26 companies have conceded is the benchmark itself, that a U.S. price near three times what other developed countries pay cannot be defended, and that concession now covers 90% of the market instead of sitting in litigation for years.

Blue take

Grant that a signed most-favored-nation benchmark across 26 companies is leverage no rule would have won this fast. But leverage no one can audit is not a price cut: no drug, price or covered list has been published, Teva has agreed only to an "intent to reach agreement," and the $19.6 billion in manufacturing counts plants already under construction. Medicaid enrollees pay little at the counter, so the gain, if it arrives, lands in government budgets no one can check against a model.

Quick bites6

Army Secretary Dan Driscoll resigns after 18 months, following clashes with Hegseth
AP Hegseth's Pentagon
Army Secretary Dan Driscoll has submitted his resignation. He ran the service for about 18 months, leading its soldiers and its civilian workers. He and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reportedly fought over leadership removals, modernization and readiness. Driscoll resigned after speaking with Trump about the state of the Army. The White House praised his record but gave no reason for the exit. He is not the first to go: the Army chief of staff, the Army's Europe and Africa commander and the Navy secretary have all been removed or departed before him.

NBC News reports the White House has accepted the resignation; Fox News reports it was submitted but still pending
CDC leaves two Pennsylvania measles deaths out of its national count
THE GUARDIAN Measles outbreak
Pennsylvania says two unvaccinated residents died after catching measles. The CDC is holding both out of its national tally while it reviews whether measles caused or contributed to the deaths. That is a break from how it counted state-reported measles deaths last year. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said the reports "may even have been altogether fabricated." Former CDC chief medical officer Debra Houry called the agency's handling "highly unusual." The count matters beyond the two names. The country recorded three measles deaths in all of 2025. International health officials decide in November 2026 whether the United States and Mexico have lost measles-free status.

3 measles deaths recorded in the U.S. in 2025

Ongoing2
This story has run 3 times over 6 days, starting Aug 26.
Aug 26Measles kills two Pennsylvanians
Aug 28Pennsylvania reports 2 measles-associated deaths, its first in 35 years, as coroner disputes infant case
Sep 1CDC leaves two Pennsylvania measles deaths out of its national count — this issue
Transportation Dept orders 110-plus truck driving schools to stop training
LOS ANGELES TIMES
The Transportation Department is pulling more than 110 truck-driving schools off its federal training registry. It matched roadside inspection tickets against the registry and tied those schools to over 5,000 drivers who failed federal English tests. The schools must stop classroom and road instruction at once. The department has proposed the same step against more than 160 other schools. It has also opened a national audit of outside CDL testers and the states that watch them. The 110 schools are about 0.6% of the 18,116 providers on the registry. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said the department was removing schools that had certified "dangerous foreign drivers."

110-plus schools removed now; 160-plus more proposed for removal
Trump administration asks Supreme Court to discharge 29 transgender troops before their January 2027 trial
ABC NEWS Transgender bans
The Trump administration asked the Supreme Court to let the Pentagon discharge 29 transgender service members and would-be enlistees right away. All 29 sued over the military's policy. The government wants them out rather than wait for their trial in January 2027. Lower courts had shielded the 29 after finding the policy was likely rooted in animus and broke their due-process and equal-protection rights. The government disputes that. The wider ban is already in force, because the Supreme Court let it take effect while the case runs. This request covers only the handful of people the courts carved out.

Solicitor General John Sauer called military authority over who may serve a matter of "exceptional importance"
Russia's finance minister returned to the G20 in person for the first time since the Ukraine invasion
AXIOS Russia diesel deal
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov at the G20 finance meeting in Asheville, North Carolina. The two talked about Trump's Ukraine peace plan, growth and money ties between the two countries. It was the first time Russia's top finance official had come to a G20 meeting in person since the war in Ukraine began. European ministers pushed back hard. The group photo was taken without the Russians.
Ongoing5
This story has run 6 times over 6 days, starting Aug 26.
Aug 26CIA chief Ratcliffe makes rare Moscow visit
Aug 27CIA chief reportedly warned Moscow against a limited Russian attack on NATO
Aug 28CIA chief secretly met Russian intelligence officials in Moscow
Aug 29UpdateCIA chief told Moscow to end the Ukraine war before Russia’s military and economy worsen
Aug 30Russian drone hits ammunition depot near Kyiv, killing 38; four remain missing
Sep 1Russia's finance minister returned to the G20 in person for the first time since the Ukraine invasion — this issue
Four four-star commanders reportedly objected to keeping 50,000-plus troops in the Middle East
THE GUARDIAN Iran war
Four four-star commanders reportedly filed formal objections to a plan holding more than 50,000 U.S. troops in the Middle East through September. They are the Navy's top admiral, Adm. Daryl Caudle, plus the heads of U.S. European, Southern and Indo-Pacific commands. Some deployments run into 2027. Caudle warned the Navy cannot sustain the commitment without an end date. The Pentagon did not deny the objections were filed. Spokesman Sean Parnell disputed unspecified parts of the reporting and condemned the leak of the classified orders book. He said "non-concurs are standard" and that the Secretary "sees them constantly."

Election Bites3 bites

70% oppose a data center nearby, and Trump says they'll be poor for it
AXIOS
AXIOS: 70% oppose a data center nearby, and Trump says they'll be poor for it

Trump told towns fighting AI data centers that blocking them costs jobs, tax money and growth. "If we kill the Golden Goose, you will only have yourselves to blame," he wrote. A Fox News poll found 70% oppose a data center near their home. That includes 76% of Democrats and 60% of Republicans. House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries said his party will run against building them without limits. The jobs case is thin in at least one place: Tom's Hardware reports a New Jersey site won $77 million in tax breaks for a promise of one permanent job. The trade group Build American AI has raised $50 million to fight back.

Fox News poll: 70% oppose one nearby, 76% of Democrats and 60% of Republicans

The opposition crosses party lines: 76% of Democrats, 60% of Republicans.
Judge leaves Trump's mail-ballot order blocked, with a Sept. 3 hearing on a longer freeze
WASHINGTON EXAMINERUpdateMail-ballot rules
WASHINGTON EXAMINER: Judge leaves Trump's mail-ballot order blocked, with a Sept. 3 hearing on a longer freeze

A federal judge refused to lift her 14-day order blocking key parts of a new Postal Service rule. The rule set conditions on ballot delivery: election officials had to certify voter data through a federal portal and use federally approved envelopes. Ballots that fell short would not be delivered. The judge found the Postal Service likely had no power to write the rule at all, and that the rule was likely unconstitutional. She set a Sept. 3 hearing on a longer freeze. The midterms are Nov. 3, and the first states are already getting ballots ready to mail.
She found the Postal Service likely had no authority to issue the rule at all.
Joint Chiefs chair says no troops at polling places in November's midterms
REUTERS Fears for Nov. 3
REUTERS: Joint Chiefs chair says no troops at polling places in November's midterms

Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine wrote that the military has no plans to send federal troops or federalized National Guard members to polling places for the 2026 midterms. He said there are also no plans to use troops to seize ballots, voting machines or other election material. Caine advises the president; federal law says his job carries no command authority, so the letter states a plan rather than a guarantee. Federal law already bars troops from election sites unless they are needed to repel armed enemies of the United States. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, asked the same questions, had not answered by Sen. Elissa Slotkin's Aug. 28 deadline.
Caine also rules out seizing ballots or voting machines.

Elections22 races

The midterms · 63 days out · November 3, 2026

D or R take the House / Senate?

Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT

U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 89%, Kalshi 85%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 51%, Kalshi 49%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

U.S. House — Democrats take it, 84.5–88.5%

89%85%chance Democrats take it · 4.0pp apart · no clear move — the venues went opposite ways

U.S. House: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 89% and Kalshi 85%.

U.S. Senate — Republicans retain it, 49.5–51.5%

51%49%chance Democrats take it · 2.0pp apart · no clear move — one venue moved, the other did not

U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 51% and Kalshi 49%.

No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only

Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.

two venues, priced separately
shaded = how far apart they are
50% — control flips here
where it stood 7 days ago
the last 7 days, on its own scale
week panel: one line a party

The week panel draws one line per party, crossing where control does. Only the Democratic line is a traded price: the Republicanline is its arithmetic complement, the same mirror the bar’s other half is, and not a second market agreeing with the first. The shading around each line is how far apart the two venues are.

Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.

The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 4.0pp gap / 2.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.

Who is defending the House and the Senate is sourced, not remembered — House, 2026-07-23 issue: the NDAA passed “216-212, with six Democrats joining a unified Republican majority.”; Senate, 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.”

Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

PolymarketU.S. House · todayWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Democratic control89%

Republican, implied11%

volume$5.6M

7-day move+1.0pp

KalshiU.S. House · todayWill Democrats win the House in 2026?

Democratic control85%

Republican, implied15%

volume9.9M contracts

bid / ask84% / 85%

7-day move-1.5pp

PolymarketU.S. Senate · todayWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Democratic control51%

Republican, implied49%

volume$2.4M

7-day move0.0pp

KalshiU.S. Senate · todayWill Democrats win the U.S. Senate in 2026?

Democratic control49%

Republican, implied51%

volume3.3M contracts

bid / ask48% / 49%

7-day move+0.5pp

Probability that Democrats control each chamber, as each venue prices it, by day.
Day	U.S. House · Polymarket	U.S. House · Kalshi	U.S. Senate · Polymarket	U.S. Senate · Kalshi
7 days ago	88%	86%	51%	48%
6 days ago	89%	85%	51%	49%
5 days ago	89%	84%	51%	48%
4 days ago	89%	84%	51%	48%
3 days ago	90%	84%	51%	48%
2 days ago	89%	85%	51%	48%
yesterday	89%	85%	51%	49%
today	89%	85%	51%	49%

3 closest races

lTexas SenateJames Talarico 50.5%▲0.2Ken Paxton 49.5%

POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election

Ken Paxton (R) faces James Talarico (D).

The only race here where the two venues do not agree on who is ahead.

Two markets, one question

Texas Senate

Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 50.5%, Kalshi 50.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 48.5%, Kalshi 50.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: James Talarico 51% · Ken Paxton 50%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

James Talarico (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$446K49.5%

Kalshi4.3M contracts · 50%/51%52.0%

venue gap2.5pp

7-day move+1.0pp

Ken Paxton (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$532K48.5%

Kalshi5.8M contracts · 50%/51%49.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move0.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Texas Senate, snapshot Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT.
Day	James Talarico · Polymarket	James Talarico · Kalshi	Ken Paxton · Polymarket	Ken Paxton · Kalshi
7 days ago	49.5%	52.0%	48.5%	49.0%
6 days ago	49.5%	49.0%	48.5%	51.0%
5 days ago	49.5%	49.0%	48.5%	51.0%
4 days ago	49.5%	50.0%	49.5%	51.0%
3 days ago	49.5%	50.0%	50.5%	50.0%
2 days ago	50.0%	51.0%	48.5%	51.0%
yesterday	50.5%	50.0%	48.5%	51.0%
today	50.5%	50.5%	48.5%	50.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

pOhio SenateSherrod Brown 54.5%▲0.2Jon Husted 45.5%

POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election

Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).

A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Ohio Senate

Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT
widest venue gap 0.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 54.5%, Kalshi 54.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 45.5%, Kalshi 45.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Sherrod Brown 55% · Jon Husted 46%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Sherrod Brown (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$110K54.5%

Kalshi1.0M contracts · 54%/55%55.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move0.0pp

Jon Husted (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$78.1K45%

Kalshi1.5M contracts · 45%/46%47%

venue gap2.0pp

7-day move+0.5pp

Every sample behind the chart. Ohio Senate, snapshot Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT.
Day	Sherrod Brown · Polymarket	Sherrod Brown · Kalshi	Jon Husted · Polymarket	Jon Husted · Kalshi
7 days ago	54.5%	55.0%	45.0%	47.0%
6 days ago	55.5%	55.0%	45.0%	47.0%
5 days ago	55.5%	54.0%	45.5%	47.0%
4 days ago	54.5%	55.0%	45.5%	47.0%
3 days ago	54.5%	56.0%	45.5%	46.0%
2 days ago	54.5%	55.0%	45.5%	46.0%
yesterday	54.5%	55.0%	45.5%	46.0%
today	54.5%	54.5%	45.5%	45.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

jOhio governorAmy Acton 55.5%▲0.3Vivek Ramaswamy 45.0%

POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election

Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).

Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Ohio governor

Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT
widest venue gap 4.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 53.5%, Kalshi 57.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 46.5%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Amy Acton 57% · Vivek Ramaswamy 44%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Amy Acton (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$80.0K54.5%

Kalshi697K contracts · 57%/58%57.0%

venue gap2.5pp

7-day move-1.0pp

Vivek Ramaswamy (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$96.1K45.5%

Kalshi745K contracts · 43%/44%44.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move+1.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Ohio governor, snapshot Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT.
Day	Amy Acton · Polymarket	Amy Acton · Kalshi	Vivek Ramaswamy · Polymarket	Vivek Ramaswamy · Kalshi
7 days ago	54.5%	57.0%	45.5%	44.0%
6 days ago	53.5%	57.0%	46.5%	47.0%
5 days ago	54.5%	56.0%	46.5%	45.0%
4 days ago	53.5%	56.0%	45.5%	44.0%
3 days ago	53.5%	57.0%	46.5%	44.0%
2 days ago	53.5%	57.0%	46.5%	44.0%
yesterday	53.5%	57.0%	46.5%	43.0%
today	53.5%	57.5%	46.5%	43.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

The other 19 races22 races · 12 still in doubt · Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT · markets, not polling

Senate8 of 10

mAlaska SenateMary Peltola 64.8%▲2.7Dan Sullivan 35.3%

POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election

Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).

A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead.

Two markets, one question

Alaska Senate

Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 65.0%, Kalshi 64.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 34.5%, Kalshi 36.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Mary Peltola 65% · Dan Sullivan 35%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Mary Peltola (D)7 days ago

Polymarket$241K61.5%

Kalshi75.6K contracts · 63%/66%64.0%

venue gap2.5pp

7-day move+3.5pp

Dan Sullivan (R)7 days ago

Polymarket$136K38.5%

Kalshi71.7K contracts · 35%/37%38.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move-4.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Alaska Senate, snapshot Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT.
Day	Mary Peltola · Polymarket	Mary Peltola · Kalshi	Dan Sullivan · Polymarket	Dan Sullivan · Kalshi
7 days ago	61.5%	64.0%	38.5%	38%
6 days ago	64.5%	64.0%	36.5%	41%
5 days ago	66.5%	65.0%	34.5%	39%
4 days ago	65.0%	64.0%	35.5%	39%
3 days ago	64.5%	63.0%	34.5%	36%
2 days ago	65.0%	62.0%	34.5%	36%
yesterday	65.0%	65.0%	34.5%	34%
today	65.0%	64.5%	34.5%	36%

uGeorgia SenateJon Ossoff 93.03%Collins 6.93%

POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election

Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Georgia Senate

Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 93.50%, Kalshi 92.55%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 6.40%, Kalshi 7.45%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Jon Ossoff 93% · Mike Collins 7.4%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Jon Ossoff (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$48.8K93.5%

Kalshi349K contracts · 92%/93%92.4%

venue gap1.1pp

7-day move0.0pp

Mike Collins (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$74.5K6.1%

Kalshi832K contracts · 7.4%/7.5%7.8%

venue gap1.7pp

7-day move+0.3pp

Every sample behind the chart. Georgia Senate, snapshot Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT.
Day	Jon Ossoff · Polymarket	Jon Ossoff · Kalshi	Mike Collins · Polymarket	Mike Collins · Kalshi
7 days ago	93.5%	92.40%	6.10%	7.80%
6 days ago	93.5%	91.70%	6.05%	7.60%
5 days ago	93.5%	92.10%	6.35%	8.00%
4 days ago	93.5%	92.70%	6.35%	7.90%
3 days ago	93.5%	92.60%	6.35%	8.10%
2 days ago	93.5%	92.80%	6.40%	7.70%
yesterday	93.5%	93.00%	6.40%	7.50%
today	93.5%	92.55%	6.40%	7.45%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

nIowa SenateAshley Hinson 62.5%▲3.4Josh Turek 39.0%

POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election

Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).

An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead.

Two markets, one question

Iowa Senate

Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 62.5%, Kalshi 62.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 38.5%, Kalshi 39.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Ashley Hinson 63% · Josh Turek 39%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Ashley Hinson (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$116K60.5%

Kalshi991K contracts · 62%/63%57.0%

venue gap3.5pp

7-day move+2.0pp

Josh Turek (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$108K40.5%

Kalshi1.1M contracts · 39%/40%44.0%

venue gap3.5pp

7-day move-2.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Iowa Senate, snapshot Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT.
Day	Ashley Hinson · Polymarket	Ashley Hinson · Kalshi	Josh Turek · Polymarket	Josh Turek · Kalshi
7 days ago	60.5%	57.0%	40.5%	44.0%
6 days ago	60.5%	58.0%	39.5%	42.0%
5 days ago	60.5%	59.0%	40.5%	42.0%
4 days ago	60.5%	59.0%	40.5%	42.0%
3 days ago	61.0%	59.0%	39.5%	42.0%
2 days ago	60.5%	59.0%	39.5%	41.0%
yesterday	62.5%	62.0%	38.5%	39.0%
today	62.5%	62.5%	38.5%	39.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

kMaine SenateTroy Jackson 69.5%▲0.5Collins 30.8%

POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election

Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).

Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Maine Senate

Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 69.5%, Kalshi 69.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 31.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Troy Jackson 70% · Susan Collins 31%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Troy Jackson (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$734K70.5%

Kalshi1.9M contracts · 69%/70%69.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move-1.0pp

Susan Collins (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$496K30.5%

Kalshi2.6M contracts · 30%/32%30.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move0.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Maine Senate, snapshot Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT.
Day	Troy Jackson · Polymarket	Troy Jackson · Kalshi	Susan Collins · Polymarket	Susan Collins · Kalshi
7 days ago	70.5%	69.0%	30.5%	30%
6 days ago	69.5%	69.0%	30.5%	32%
5 days ago	69.5%	67.0%	31.5%	35%
4 days ago	69.5%	69.0%	31.5%	32%
3 days ago	69.5%	70.0%	30.5%	31%
2 days ago	69.5%	70.0%	30.5%	31%
yesterday	69.5%	70.0%	30.5%	31%
today	69.5%	69.5%	30.5%	31%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

oMichigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed 64.0%▲2.3Mike Rogers 36.0%

POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election

Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side lost about three points in a week.

Two markets, one question

Michigan Senate

Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 64.5%, Kalshi 63.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 35.5%, Kalshi 36.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 64% · Mike Rogers 36%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Abdul El-Sayed (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$342K63%

Kalshi1.2M contracts · 63%/64%62%

venue gap1.0pp

7-day move+1.5pp

Mike Rogers (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$281K37.5%

Kalshi1.7M contracts · 36%/37%40.0%

venue gap2.5pp

7-day move-2.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Michigan Senate, snapshot Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT.
Day	Abdul El-Sayed · Polymarket	Abdul El-Sayed · Kalshi	Mike Rogers · Polymarket	Mike Rogers · Kalshi
7 days ago	63.0%	62.0%	37.5%	40.0%
6 days ago	64.5%	62.0%	35.5%	40.0%
5 days ago	64.5%	61.0%	35.5%	40.0%
4 days ago	64.5%	63.0%	35.5%	39.0%
3 days ago	64.5%	63.0%	35.5%	37.0%
2 days ago	64.5%	64.0%	35.5%	37.0%
yesterday	64.5%	64.0%	35.5%	37.0%
today	64.5%	63.5%	35.5%	36.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

vNebraska SenatePete Ricketts 69.8%▲0.4Dan Osborn 30.3%

POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election

Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).

The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Nebraska Senate

Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 70.0%, Kalshi 69.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 29.5%, Kalshi 31.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Pete Ricketts 70% · Dan Osborn 31%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Pete Ricketts (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$91.7K69.5%

Kalshi283K contracts · 69%/70%70.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move+0.5pp

Dan Osborn (I)7 days ago

Polymarket$27.1K30.5%

Kalshi376K contracts · 30%/32%31.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move-1.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Nebraska Senate, snapshot Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT.
Day	Pete Ricketts · Polymarket	Pete Ricketts · Kalshi	Dan Osborn · Polymarket	Dan Osborn · Kalshi
7 days ago	69.5%	70.0%	30.5%	31%
6 days ago	70.5%	70.0%	29.5%	30%
5 days ago	70.5%	70.0%	29.5%	31%
4 days ago	70.5%	70.0%	29.5%	29%
3 days ago	70.5%	70.0%	29.5%	30%
2 days ago	70.0%	70.0%	29.5%	31%
yesterday	70.0%	69.0%	29.5%	30%
today	70.0%	69.5%	29.5%	31%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

wNew Hampshire SenateChris Pappas 83.5%16.5%Sununu

POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election

Chris Pappas (D) leads the unresolved Democratic primary; John E. Sununu (R) leads the unresolved Republican primary.

Neither nomination is official yet, though the market already treats both as decided — the Republican side gained about six points in a week.

General election wintwo venues

Chris Pappas^* (D)party contract83.5%83.5%same price

The whole field

New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary

Every candidate the venue lists, replayed across the window it has priced. Bars are linear, so a 0.05% long shot is a hairline — that is what the market thinks of them.

Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT
6 candidates listed

New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary on today, priced by Kalshi: Chris Pappas 94%, Karishma Manzur 5.9%, Maggie Goodlander 0.3%, Annie Kuster 0.2%, Jared Sullivan 0.2%, Stefany Shaheen 0.2%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

Chris Pappas94%

Karishma Manzur5.9%

Maggie Goodlander0.3%

Annie Kuster0.2%

Jared Sullivan0.2%

Stefany Shaheen0.2%

Daytoday

Biggest moves over the window (Kalshi): Chris Pappas -3.1pp · Karishma Manzur +2.9pp · leading on today: Chris Pappas at 94%.

A candidate with no sample on the selected day is shown as not priced and dropped to the bottom rather than carried forward from an earlier day. Venues list candidates on different dates, so the field genuinely grows and shrinks across the window.

New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary — Kalshiprice by day, plus the other venue’s price today.
Candidate	7 days ago	6 days ago	5 days ago	4 days ago	3 days ago	2 days ago	yesterday	today	Other venue, today	Volume
Chris Pappas	97%	94%	94%	94%	93%	97%	95%	94%	—	110K contracts
Karishma Manzur	3.0%	5.8%	7.0%	6.5%	7.0%	7.3%	5.5%	5.9%	—	138K contracts
Maggie Goodlander	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.5%	0.3%	—	1.4K contracts
Annie Kuster	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.9%	0.2%	—	622 contracts
Jared Sullivan	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.2%	—	3 contracts
Stefany Shaheen	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.5%	0.2%	—	1.3K contracts

No 7-day series from Kalshi for Jared Sullivan— they only appear at “today”.

New Hampshire Democratic Senate primaryNomination odds · Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT

Chris Pappas (D)94%-3.1pp

Karishma Manzur (D)5.9%+2.9pp

Maggie Goodlander (D)0.3%-0.3pp

Annie Kuster (D)0.2%-0.7pp

Jared Sullivan (D)0.2%7D —

Stefany Shaheen (D)0.2%-0.3pp

John E. Sununu^* (R)party contract16.5%16.5%same price

The whole field

New Hampshire Republican Senate primary

Every candidate the venue lists, replayed across the window it has priced. Bars are linear, so a 0.05% long shot is a hairline — that is what the market thinks of them.

Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT
4 candidates listed

New Hampshire Republican Senate primary on today, priced by Kalshi: John E. Sununu 97%, Scott Brown 2.8%, Chris Sununu 0.8%, Dan Innis 0.8%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

John E. Sununu97%

Scott Brown2.8%

Chris Sununu0.8%

Dan Innis0.8%

Daytoday

Biggest moves over the window (Kalshi): Chris Sununu -1.1pp · John E. Sununu -0.5pp · leading on today: John E. Sununu at 97%.

New Hampshire Republican Senate primary — Kalshiprice by day, plus the other venue’s price today.
Candidate	7 days ago	6 days ago	5 days ago	4 days ago	3 days ago	2 days ago	yesterday	today	Other venue, today	Volume
John E. Sununu	98%	97%	99%	99.6%	99.7%	98%	97%	97%	—	15.9K contracts
Scott Brown	2.3%	2.0%	2.3%	1.8%	2.1%	2.5%	2.8%	2.8%	—	30.1K contracts
Chris Sununu	—	—	—	—	—	1.9%	0.7%	0.8%	—	22.7K contracts
Dan Innis	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.8%	—	37 contracts

No 7-day series from Kalshi for Dan Innis— they only appear at “today”.

New Hampshire Republican Senate primaryNomination odds · Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT

John E. Sununu (R)97%-0.5pp

Scott Brown (R)2.8%+0.5pp

Chris Sununu (R)0.8%-1.1pp

Dan Innis (R)0.8%7D —

* Current primary leader; nomination not settled. General-election odds above may price the party rather than the person.

Two markets, one question

New Hampshire Senate

Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT
widest venue gap 0.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 83.5%, Kalshi 83.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 16.5%, Kalshi 16.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Chris Pappas 84% · John E. Sununu 17%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Chris Pappas (D)*7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$59.0K88%

Kalshi84.7K contracts · 83%/84%87%

venue gap1.0pp

7-day move-4.5pp

John E. Sununu (R)*7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$27.3K11.5%

Kalshi155K contracts · 16%/17%10.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move+5.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. New Hampshire Senate, snapshot Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT.
Day	Chris Pappas · Polymarket	Chris Pappas · Kalshi	John E. Sununu · Polymarket	John E. Sununu · Kalshi
7 days ago	88.0%	87.0%	11.5%	10.0%
6 days ago	86.5%	86.0%	14.0%	14.0%
5 days ago	86.5%	85.0%	14.5%	17.0%
4 days ago	85.5%	84.0%	14.5%	17.0%
3 days ago	84.5%	84.0%	14.5%	18.0%
2 days ago	84.5%	84.0%	16.0%	17.0%
yesterday	83.5%	83.0%	16.5%	17.0%
today	83.5%	83.5%	16.5%	16.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

tNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 91.33%Whatley 8.18%

POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election

Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

North Carolina Senate

Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.3pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 91.50%, Kalshi 91.15%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 7.50%, Kalshi 8.85%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.3pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Roy Cooper 91% · Michael Whatley 8.7%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Roy Cooper (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$40.8K91.5%

Kalshi1.3M contracts · 91%/91%92.8%

venue gap1.3pp

7-day move0.0pp

Michael Whatley (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$59.7K8.5%

Kalshi462K contracts · 8.5%/9.2%8.1%

venue gap0.4pp

7-day move-1.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. North Carolina Senate, snapshot Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT.
Day	Roy Cooper · Polymarket	Roy Cooper · Kalshi	Michael Whatley · Polymarket	Michael Whatley · Kalshi
7 days ago	91.5%	92.80%	8.5%	8.10%
6 days ago	91.5%	91.80%	8.5%	8.40%
5 days ago	91.5%	91.50%	8.5%	7.80%
4 days ago	91.5%	92.30%	9.0%	8.80%
3 days ago	91.5%	91.10%	9.0%	9.80%
2 days ago	92.0%	92.50%	8.0%	9.10%
yesterday	91.5%	91.20%	7.5%	9.20%
today	91.5%	91.15%	7.5%	8.85%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Governors11 of 12

yAlaska governorBernadette Wilson 33.00%66.2%Begich 0.78%

POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election

Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).

Wilson holds a commanding lead, but no race here has moved more this week: Begich is down about seventeen points.

Two markets, one question

Alaska governor

Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT
widest venue gap 5.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 35.5%, Kalshi 30.5%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 1.35%, Kalshi 0.20%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 5.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Bernadette Wilson 34% · Tom Begich 0.7%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Bernadette Wilson (R)7 days ago

Polymarket$168K35.5%

Kalshi48.2K contracts · 29%/32%36.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move0.0pp

Tom Begich (D)7 days ago

Polymarket$158K18%

Kalshi228K contracts · 0.1%/0.3%18%

venue gap0.0pp

7-day move-17pp

Every sample behind the chart. Alaska governor, snapshot Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT.
Day	Bernadette Wilson · Polymarket	Bernadette Wilson · Kalshi	Tom Begich · Polymarket	Tom Begich · Kalshi
7 days ago	35.5%	36.0%	18.00%	18.0%
6 days ago	35.5%	36.0%	15.00%	18.0%
5 days ago	36.5%	35.0%	3.25%	14.0%
4 days ago	35.5%	36.0%	1.35%	1.0%
3 days ago	35.5%	37.0%	1.40%	0.1%
2 days ago	35.5%	36.0%	1.30%	1.0%
yesterday	35.5%	30.0%	1.35%	0.1%
today	35.5%	30.5%	1.35%	0.2%

aaArizona governorKatie Hobbs 87.3%13.0%Biggs

POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election

Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Arizona governor

Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 87.5%, Kalshi 87.0%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 12.5%, Kalshi 13.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Katie Hobbs 87% · Andy Biggs 13%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Katie Hobbs (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$31.1K87.5%

Kalshi304K contracts · 86%/88%89.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move0.0pp

Andy Biggs (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$36.2K12.5%

Kalshi235K contracts · 13%/14%13.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move0.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Arizona governor, snapshot Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT.
Day	Katie Hobbs · Polymarket	Katie Hobbs · Kalshi	Andy Biggs · Polymarket	Andy Biggs · Kalshi
7 days ago	87.5%	89%	12.5%	13.0%
6 days ago	87.5%	88%	12.5%	13.0%
5 days ago	87.5%	88%	12.5%	14.0%
4 days ago	87.5%	89%	12.5%	14.0%
3 days ago	87.5%	88%	12.5%	14.0%
2 days ago	87.5%	88%	12.5%	15.0%
yesterday	87.5%	88%	12.5%	15.0%
today	87.5%	87%	12.5%	13.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

aeFlorida governorByron Donalds 80.8%▲0.2Jolly 19.5%

POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election

Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).

Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Florida governor

Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 81.0%, Kalshi 80.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 19.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Byron Donalds 81% · David Jolly 20%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Byron Donalds (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$26.9K79.5%

Kalshi475K contracts · 80%/81%81.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move+1.5pp

David Jolly (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$30.9K20.5%

Kalshi250K contracts · 19%/20%19.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move-1.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Florida governor, snapshot Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT.
Day	Byron Donalds · Polymarket	Byron Donalds · Kalshi	David Jolly · Polymarket	David Jolly · Kalshi
7 days ago	79.5%	81.0%	20.5%	19.0%
6 days ago	79.5%	82.0%	19.0%	19.0%
5 days ago	79.5%	83.0%	19.0%	19.0%
4 days ago	80.5%	83.0%	18.5%	18.0%
3 days ago	81.0%	84.0%	19.5%	17.0%
2 days ago	81.0%	81.0%	19.5%	19.0%
yesterday	81.0%	81.0%	19.5%	20.0%
today	81.0%	80.5%	19.5%	19.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

rGeorgia governorKeisha Lance Bottoms 59.0%▲0.4Rick Jackson 40.0%

POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election

Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).

Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Georgia governor

Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 59%, Kalshi 59%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 38.5%, Kalshi 41.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Keisha Lance Bottoms 59% · Rick Jackson 41%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$32.4K61%

Kalshi274K contracts · 58%/60%59%

venue gap2.0pp

7-day move-2.0pp

Rick Jackson (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$36.8K40%

Kalshi364K contracts · 41%/42%42%

venue gap2.0pp

7-day move-1.5pp

Every sample behind the chart. Georgia governor, snapshot Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT.
Day	Keisha Lance Bottoms · Polymarket	Keisha Lance Bottoms · Kalshi	Rick Jackson · Polymarket	Rick Jackson · Kalshi
7 days ago	61%	59%	40.0%	42.0%
6 days ago	59%	61%	40.0%	41.0%
5 days ago	59%	59%	40.0%	41.0%
4 days ago	59%	60%	39.5%	42.0%
3 days ago	59%	59%	39.0%	41.0%
2 days ago	59%	60%	39.0%	41.0%
yesterday	59%	60%	38.5%	41.0%
today	59%	59%	38.5%	41.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

xIowa governorRob Sand 75.0%▲0.3Lahn 25.5%

POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election

Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Iowa governor

Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 75.5%, Kalshi 74.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 24.5%, Kalshi 26.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Rob Sand 75% · Zach Lahn 26%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Rob Sand (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$31.1K74.5%

Kalshi251K contracts · 74%/75%76.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move+1.0pp

Zach Lahn (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$43.7K24.5%

Kalshi287K contracts · 26%/27%26.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move0.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Iowa governor, snapshot Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT.
Day	Rob Sand · Polymarket	Rob Sand · Kalshi	Zach Lahn · Polymarket	Zach Lahn · Kalshi
7 days ago	74.5%	76.0%	24.5%	26.0%
6 days ago	74.0%	76.0%	25.5%	26.0%
5 days ago	74.5%	75.0%	25.5%	27.0%
4 days ago	74.5%	75.0%	25.5%	27.0%
3 days ago	74.5%	74.0%	25.5%	26.0%
2 days ago	75.5%	77.0%	24.5%	26.0%
yesterday	75.5%	75.0%	24.5%	27.0%
today	75.5%	74.5%	24.5%	26.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

zMichigan governorJocelyn Benson 90.3%▲1.110.0%James

POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election

Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

Two markets, one question

Michigan governor

Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT
widest venue gap 4.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 92.0%, Kalshi 88.6%; John James (R): Polymarket 8%, Kalshi 12%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.

Money-weighted: Jocelyn Benson 90% · John James 9.8%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Jocelyn Benson (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$48.4K90.5%

Kalshi73.1K contracts · 87%/90%—

venue gap—

7-day move+1.5pp

John James (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$153K9.5%

Kalshi125K contracts · 10%/14%13.0%

venue gap3.5pp

7-day move-1.5pp

Every sample behind the chart. Michigan governor, snapshot Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT.
Day	Jocelyn Benson · Polymarket	Jocelyn Benson · Kalshi	John James · Polymarket	John James · Kalshi
7 days ago	90.5%	—	9.5%	13%
6 days ago	91.0%	89.0%	9.0%	12%
5 days ago	91.5%	88.0%	8.5%	12%
4 days ago	91.0%	92.9%	8.5%	15%
3 days ago	90.5%	89.0%	8.0%	10%
2 days ago	92.0%	87.0%	8.0%	15%
yesterday	92.0%	87.0%	8.0%	14%
today	92.0%	88.6%	8.0%	12%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

sNevada governorJoe Lombardo 58.5%▲0.3Aaron Ford 40.5%

POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election

Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).

Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Republican side holds a clear lead.

Two markets, one question

Nevada governor

Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT
widest venue gap 4.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 60.5%, Kalshi 56.5%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 40%, Kalshi 41%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Money-weighted: Joe Lombardo 57% · Aaron Ford 41%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Joe Lombardo (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$57.2K59.5%

Kalshi235K contracts · 56%/57%59.0%

venue gap0.5pp

7-day move+1.0pp

Aaron Ford (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$23.4K41%

Kalshi482K contracts · 40%/42%—

venue gap—

7-day move-1.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Nevada governor, snapshot Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT.
Day	Joe Lombardo · Polymarket	Joe Lombardo · Kalshi	Aaron Ford · Polymarket	Aaron Ford · Kalshi
7 days ago	59.5%	59.0%	41%	—
6 days ago	59.5%	61.0%	41%	42%
5 days ago	59.5%	61.0%	41%	42%
4 days ago	59.5%	60.0%	41%	41%
3 days ago	59.5%	60.0%	41%	40%
2 days ago	60.5%	60.0%	40%	42%
yesterday	60.5%	55.0%	40%	42%
today	60.5%	56.5%	40%	41%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

acNew York governorKathy Hochul 94.28%Blakeman 6.25%

POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election

Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

New York governor

Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 94.50%, Kalshi 94.05%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 5.5%, Kalshi 7.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Kathy Hochul 94% · Bruce Blakeman 6.9%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Kathy Hochul (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$49.3K94.5%

Kalshi271K contracts · 94%/94%94.5%

venue gap0.0pp

7-day move0.0pp

Bruce Blakeman (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$55.3K5.0%

Kalshi708K contracts · 6.4%/7.6%5.4%

venue gap0.4pp

7-day move+0.5pp

Every sample behind the chart. New York governor, snapshot Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT.
Day	Kathy Hochul · Polymarket	Kathy Hochul · Kalshi	Bruce Blakeman · Polymarket	Bruce Blakeman · Kalshi
7 days ago	94.5%	94.50%	5.0%	5.4%
6 days ago	94.5%	94.60%	5.0%	6.4%
5 days ago	94.5%	94.10%	5.0%	6.1%
4 days ago	94.5%	94.30%	5.0%	6.2%
3 days ago	94.5%	94.10%	5.0%	6.2%
2 days ago	94.5%	94.00%	5.5%	6.6%
yesterday	94.5%	94.10%	5.5%	7.7%
today	94.5%	94.05%	5.5%	7.0%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

adPennsylvania governorJosh Shapiro 96.35%▲2.0Garrity 2.72%

POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election

Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).

The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side lost about three points in six days.

Two markets, one question

Pennsylvania governor

Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT
widest venue gap 1.7pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 95.5%, Kalshi 97.2%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.15%, Kalshi 3.30%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.7pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 3–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.

Money-weighted: Josh Shapiro 97% · Stacy Garrity 3.2%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Josh Shapiro (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$7.5K95.5%

Kalshi99.1K contracts · 97%/98%—

venue gap—

7-day move0.0pp

Stacy Garrity (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$41.6K4.5%

Kalshi391K contracts · 2.6%/4.0%—

venue gap—

7-day move-2.4pp

Every sample behind the chart. Pennsylvania governor, snapshot Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT.
Day	Josh Shapiro · Polymarket	Josh Shapiro · Kalshi	Stacy Garrity · Polymarket	Stacy Garrity · Kalshi
7 days ago	95.5%	—	4.50%	—
6 days ago	95.5%	—	2.45%	6.9%
5 days ago	95.5%	—	2.75%	2.9%
4 days ago	95.5%	—	2.75%	4.9%
3 days ago	95.5%	—	2.50%	4.9%
2 days ago	95.5%	96.0%	2.25%	4.3%
yesterday	95.5%	97.7%	2.15%	4.3%
today	95.5%	97.2%	2.15%	3.3%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

abTexas governorGreg Abbott 83.0%17.5%Hinojosa

POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election

Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).

The Republican side holds a commanding lead after the Democratic side gained about four points in a week.

Two markets, one question

Texas governor

Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT
widest venue gap 2.9pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 81.6%, Kalshi 84.5%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 18.5%, Kalshi 16.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.9pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: Greg Abbott 84% · Gina Hinojosa 17%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

Greg Abbott (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$39.4K86.05%

Kalshi159K contracts · 84%/85%88.00%

venue gap1.9pp

7-day move-4.5pp

Gina Hinojosa (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$50.8K14.5%

Kalshi587K contracts · 16%/17%13.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move+4.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Texas governor, snapshot Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT.
Day	Greg Abbott · Polymarket	Greg Abbott · Kalshi	Gina Hinojosa · Polymarket	Gina Hinojosa · Kalshi
7 days ago	86.05%	88.0%	14.5%	13.0%
6 days ago	83.60%	88.0%	16.5%	13.0%
5 days ago	82.60%	86.0%	17.5%	15.0%
4 days ago	82.35%	86.0%	18.5%	16.0%
3 days ago	83.05%	86.0%	16.0%	16.0%
2 days ago	78.75%	85.0%	17.5%	16.0%
yesterday	81.60%	85.0%	18.5%	17.0%
today	81.60%	84.5%	18.5%	16.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

qWisconsin governorDavid Crowley 80.5%▲1.1Tiffany 19.5%

POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election

David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).

An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

Two markets, one question

Wisconsin governor

Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp

Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them

Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 81.5%, Kalshi 79.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 19.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

Day7 days ago

Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.

Money-weighted: David Crowley 80% · Tom Tiffany 20%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.

David Crowley (D)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$274K80.5%

Kalshi443K contracts · 79%/80%79.0%

venue gap1.5pp

7-day move+1.0pp

Tom Tiffany (R)7 days ago · party contract

Polymarket$243K19.5%

Kalshi465K contracts · 19%/20%22.0%

venue gap2.5pp

7-day move0.0pp

Every sample behind the chart. Wisconsin governor, snapshot Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT.
Day	David Crowley · Polymarket	David Crowley · Kalshi	Tom Tiffany · Polymarket	Tom Tiffany · Kalshi
7 days ago	80.5%	79.0%	19.5%	22.0%
6 days ago	80.5%	80.0%	19.5%	21.0%
5 days ago	80.5%	78.0%	19.5%	20.0%
4 days ago	80.5%	80.0%	19.5%	21.0%
3 days ago	80.5%	79.0%	19.5%	21.0%
2 days ago	81.5%	80.0%	19.5%	20.0%
yesterday	81.5%	80.0%	19.5%	19.0%
today	81.5%	79.5%	19.5%	19.5%

These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Sep 1, 1:21 AM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.

Trump’s comments1

What Trump said today, from policy conditions to off-the-cuff remarks.

Trump says the U.S. position on the Falkland Islands is under review
THE GUARDIAN
Trump said the U.S. position on the Falkland Islands, claimed by both Britain and Argentina, is under review, calling it one of many positions he reviews. He gave no other reason. The current U.S. stance takes no position on ultimate sovereignty while recognizing British administration of the islands, which Britain has run almost continuously since 1833. Britain's defense budget is under separate allied pressure: NATO members agreed to spend 5% of GDP on defense and security by 2035, and Britain had committed to 3% by 2030.

Sep 12026

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Trump says the U.S. position on the Falkland Islands is under review

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