News news4 stories
Alternative for Germany more than doubled its 2021 vote in Saxony-Anhalt. Chancellor Friedrich Merz's party fell to 17.2% and lost a state it had run for 24 years; he says he will not resign.
What this was. Saxony-Anhalt, one of Germany's 16 states, elected its legislature on Sunday, Sept. 6. Think a US governor's race, not a national one. Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern vote next, on Sept. 20.
Who won. Alternative for Germany — AfD — is a far-right, anti-immigration party that every other German party refuses to govern with. It took 43.8%: its best result in any state in its history, and more than double the 21.5% it won here in 2021.
The catch. It holds 39 of the 83 seats. That is three short of a majority, so it still needs a partner nobody has offered.
Merz. Chancellor Friedrich Merz runs the national government. His Christian Democrats took 17.2%, down from 37.1%, and lost a state they had run for 24 years. He called it their worst defeat in decades on Monday, Sept. 7, and said he will not step down.
The reaction. AfD's lead candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, thanked Elon Musk on the night of the result. Trump posted the exit poll; a Kremlin envoy praised the outcome.
"We must reclaim our old, safe, beautiful Germany. We proved that yesterday."Ulrich Siegmund (AfD)
Going into the vote on Sunday, Sept. 6, polls already put AfD first in Saxony-Anhalt, and every other party had ruled out governing with it. Preliminary counts that night gave the party 44.6% and Merz's CDU 16.9%. The official result on Monday, Sept. 7, settled slightly lower, at 43.8% and 17.2%, and cost the CDU a state it had run for 24 years. AfD's previous best anywhere was 32.8% in Thuringia in September 2024.
BackgroundWhat a German state government can actually do
- Schools, culture, policing and public broadcasting are state powers; migration and deportation law are set in Berlin and Brussels.
- AfD's state manifesto includes separate classes for asylum-seekers' children, a rainbow-flag ban and wider home-schooling rights.
- Siegmund has floated pulling Saxony-Anhalt out of regional broadcaster MDR, which would require inter-state treaty procedures.
- AfD took just over 20% in the 2025 federal election, less than half its Saxony-Anhalt share.
Related reading
Read more about: Traders put Merz leaving the chancellorship before 2027 at 14.5%
No contract prices whether AfD forms a Saxony-Anhalt government; the closest markets bet only on Merz's own tenure.
Ongoing16 earlier updates47 days
This story has run 17 times over 47 days, starting Jul 23.
- Trump Threatens to Bomb Iranian Bridges and Power Plants for Every Ship Hit in Strait of Hormuz
- Iran fires multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. base in Jordan; all are intercepted
- Iran denies Trump’s claim that new U.S. talks would start Monday
- Cargo ship is struck in the Strait of Hormuz
- Vance says the Iran talks are moving, then calls the war only half over
- Iran won't reopen Hormuz until the US unfreezes its assets and lifts the blockade
- Trump threatens to bomb Oman, the U.S. ally brokering the deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
- Trump declares an "economic D-Day" on Iran as Hormuz traffic runs 85% below normal
- UpdateU.S. goes nearly a month without large Iran strikes as Trump shifts back to sanctions; Hormuz remains closed
- U.S. destroys two Iranian rocket launchers loaded to mine the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at bases in Jordan, all intercepted
- UpdateU.S. bombs two Iranian rocket sites near the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at Jordan
- UpdateU.S. forces struck IRGC air-defense, radar, maritime and mine-laying sites on Iran's southern coast starting at noon on Sept. 1
- UpdateU.S. hits about 100 Iranian targets; Iran fires back at American bases in four countries, and a cruise missile kills 4 at a wedding
- Reuters weapons experts say a US munition made a direct hit on the Iranian wedding house that killed 5
- US destroys or disables 3 Iranian oil tankers after Iran fired ballistic missiles at a US carrier and destroyer
- UpdateIran says it hit an unmanned US vessel a day after the tanker strikes; Central Command calls the claim "a total lie"
- UpdateIran says it will declare a restricted zone near the Strait of Hormuz and will strike threats "even before" they are carried out — this issue
Tehran also doubled the price of gasoline for its heaviest users, the 15% of consumers who buy the most, for the second time since December.
The zone. Iran's security council chief, Mohsen Rezaei, said Monday, Sept. 7, that Tehran will set up a restricted "exclusion zone" near the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days.
The doctrine. State media, showing off an upgraded Qassem Basir ballistic missile with a range of 1,200 kilometers (745 miles), said the weapon demonstrates a new doctrine: Iran "will take action against any threat, even before it is carried out."
The trigger. The announcements came two days after U.S. forces disabled three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday, Sept. 5, in retaliation for missiles fired at American warships.
Washington's answer. The White House said the waterway "is open and controlled by the U.S.," that the Navy has cleared the strait of mines, and that traffic to non-Iranian ports will keep rising. ([TS]Al Jazeera counted transits down 95% from normal as of Aug. 27.) The U.S. military has redirected 94 commercial vessels because of the conflict as of Monday, Sept. 7.
Pump prices. At home, Tehran doubled pump prices for its heaviest fuel buyers — the 15% who buy the most — to 100,000 rials a liter, about 7 cents, from 50,000 rials in December.
Still open. Rezaei gave no date, no coordinates and no stated penalty for entering the zone.
Catch up
- Aug. 10 — Tehran said it would keep Hormuz shut until the U.S. unfroze Iranian assets and lifted its naval blockade.
- Aug. 20 — With the 60-day truce expired, Trump declared an "economic D-Day" on Iran; only 10 to 12 ships a day were crossing the strait.
- Sept. 1 — U.S. bombs hit rocket sites near the strait and IRGC coastal air defenses; Iran fired eight missiles at bases in Jordan, all intercepted.
- Sept. 3 — U.S. hit about 100 targets; Iranian officials counted at least 18 dead, four at a wedding compound in Kuhestak.
- Sept. 5 — U.S. forces disabled three Iranian oil tankers after Iran fired ballistic missiles at a U.S. carrier and destroyer.
- Sept. 6 — Iran claimed it struck an unmanned U.S. vessel; Central Command called the claim "a total lie."
15 earlier issues
- Trump Threatens to Bomb Iranian Bridges and Power Plants for Every Ship Hit in Strait of Hormuz
- Iran fires multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. base in Jordan; all are intercepted
- Iran denies Trump’s claim that new U.S. talks would start Monday
- Cargo ship is struck in the Strait of Hormuz
- Vance says the Iran talks are moving, then calls the war only half over
- Iran won't reopen Hormuz until the US unfreezes its assets and lifts the blockade
- Trump threatens to bomb Oman, the U.S. ally brokering the deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
- Trump declares an "economic D-Day" on Iran as Hormuz traffic runs 85% below normal
- UpdateU.S. goes nearly a month without large Iran strikes as Trump shifts back to sanctions; Hormuz remains closed
- U.S. destroys two Iranian rocket launchers loaded to mine the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at bases in Jordan, all intercepted
- UpdateU.S. bombs two Iranian rocket sites near the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at Jordan
- UpdateU.S. forces struck IRGC air-defense, radar, maritime and mine-laying sites on Iran's southern coast starting at noon on Sept. 1
- UpdateU.S. hits about 100 Iranian targets; Iran fires back at American bases in four countries, and a cruise missile kills 4 at a wedding
- Reuters weapons experts say a US munition made a direct hit on the Iranian wedding house that killed 5
- US destroys or disables 3 Iranian oil tankers after Iran fired ballistic missiles at a US carrier and destroyer
How each side has already choked the strait, and the price
- Iran's Revolutionary Guard first declared the strait closed to "unfriendly nations" on March 2, 2026
- The U.S. blockade of Iranian ports has run since April 13 and uses more than 20 warships
- Barclays now forecasts Brent at $100 a barrel for 2026, up from its earlier $85 call
Ongoing7 earlier updates19 days
This story has run 8 times over 19 days, starting Aug 20.
- Trump pauses 50% Canada tariff two hours before it hits, buying three days
- Trump imposed 50% tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian goods and threatened the same rate on autos and steel
- Canada tariffs nearly $20 billion in U.S. goods to match Trump’s 50% levies
- Trump calls it a rejection of all Canadian imports; the enacted 50% tariffs cover about 5%
- Trade talks with Canada collapse, leaving 50% U.S. tariffs on $27.6 billion of Canadian goods
- UpdateCanada tariffs $20B of U.S. goods Sept. 8; U.S. trade rep says no talks underway
- UpdateCanada's 50% tariffs on $27.6B of U.S. goods start Tuesday, Sept. 8
- UpdateCanada's 15%-50% tariffs on $20 billion of U.S. goods took effect just after midnight Tuesday, Sept. 8 — this issue
Hours earlier Trump posted "NO MORE SELLING BOMBARDIER IN THE UNITED STATES!" — the Quebec planemaker runs a Kansas plant with 3,500 American workers.
What is actually on the list. Ottawa came in lighter and more targeted than it had signalled: roughly $20 billion of American goods, taxed at 15%, 25% or 50%, each rate matched to whatever the U.S. charges on the same product. They answer the U.S. tariffs that went on $27.6 billion of Canadian goods on Tuesday, Aug. 25 — the figure that circulated yesterday as Canada’s own number.
The threat. Hours before the deadline, Trump wrote on Truth Social that Bombardier, the Quebec-based planemaker, must move production to the U.S. or lose the American market. ([TS]Its Wichita plant already holds a live Air Force contract, per GovCon Wire.)
"NO MORE SELLING BOMBARDIER IN THE UNITED STATES! If they want our Market, they must build here, and stop treating America like a 'piggybank.'"Donald Trump
The Wichita plant. The company already builds in America. Its Wichita, Kansas plant employs 3,500 people making special-mission military aircraft, and Sen. Jerry Moran (Sen-R Kansas) said he had contacted the administration to protect those jobs.
Still open. The White House has not said what legal tool, if any, would carry out the Bombardier threat. No talks between the two governments are scheduled.
Catch up
- Aug. 19 — Trump paused a 50% tariff on about $20.2 billion of Canadian goods two hours before it was due to take effect.
- Aug. 22 — The replacement deadline passed with nothing signed.
- Aug. 25 — The U.S. duties went on, covering $27.6 billion of Canadian products. Ottawa promised to match them dollar for dollar on Sept. 8.
- Aug. 26 — Canada published a list of more than 700 American products it would tax.
- Sept. 6 — Trump posted that Canada's "Dollar imbalance with the U.S. is unacceptable." Ottawa did not move its deadline.
6 earlier issues
- Trump pauses 50% Canada tariff two hours before it hits, buying three days
- Trump imposed 50% tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian goods and threatened the same rate on autos and steel
- Canada tariffs nearly $20 billion in U.S. goods to match Trump’s 50% levies
- Trump calls it a rejection of all Canadian imports; the enacted 50% tariffs cover about 5%
- Trade talks with Canada collapse, leaving 50% U.S. tariffs on $27.6 billion of Canadian goods
- UpdateCanada tariffs $20B of U.S. goods Sept. 8; U.S. trade rep says no talks underway
What the Pentagon buys from Bombardier's Wichita and Tucson lines
- A $464.8 million Air Force award for up to six Global 6000 jets carrying battlefield communications relays
- A Global 6500 delivered to the U.S. Army's HADES surveillance program in November 2024
- Modification, interior and paint work split between Wichita, Kansas and Tucson, Arizona
Red take
Canada can reach $20 billion of American goods; Washington's duties already sit on $27.6 billion of Canada's. That gap is the whole argument for using it. Yes, Bombardier already builds in America — 3,500 in Wichita, a live $464.8 million Air Force award — and yes, cutting that off would bill the Pentagon for its own leverage. So the threat is not aimed at Kansas; it is aimed at Quebec, and it states the terms plainly: "If they want our Market, they must build here." Carney walked away Sept. 1 believing time was on his side. On the arithmetic of the two tariff lists, it is not.
Blue take
America is the bigger market, and Canada feels these tariffs more per capita — that much is true. But leverage is only worth what you trade it for, and this has bought nothing: talks collapsed Sept. 1, none are scheduled, and Canada's matched 15%-50% duties on $20 billion of U.S. goods went live just after midnight Sept. 8. Meanwhile the threat to end "SELLING BOMBARDIER IN THE UNITED STATES" points at a Wichita plant with 3,500 American workers and a live $464.8 million Air Force contract, which is why Sen. Jerry Moran called the administration to protect them. Threats the White House cannot name a legal tool for do not move factories. They move prices.
Related reading
More than 700 categories are named, with steel and aluminum bars, foil and wire doubled to 50%.
Ongoing8 earlier updates13 days
This story has run 9 times over 13 days, starting Aug 26.
- CIA chief Ratcliffe makes rare Moscow visit
- CIA chief reportedly warned Moscow against a limited Russian attack on NATO
- CIA chief secretly met Russian intelligence officials in Moscow
- UpdateCIA chief told Moscow to end the Ukraine war before Russia’s military and economy worsen
- Russia's finance minister returned to the G20 in person for the first time since the Ukraine invasion
- Witkoff and Kushner meet Putin in Moscow Sept. 5, Zelensky in Kyiv Sept. 6, carrying a U.S. proposal to end the war
- UpdatePutin orders 72-hour halt to strikes on Kyiv while Witkoff and Kushner visit, after a three-hour Kremlin meeting
- UpdateWitkoff and Kushner hold first Kyiv talks of the war, agreeing on next steps but no terms; announcement promised in weeks
- UpdateWitkoff says Moscow-Kyiv trip produced 'substantive progress' on scheduling more talks, with no date set and no terms disclosed — this issue
Zelensky told Axios he believes Putin "needs Trump" ahead of the Nov. 3 midterms; Bloomberg reported that Putin remains committed to continuing the war.
The trips. Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Donald Trump's envoys, met Vladimir Putin (President, Russia) in Moscow on Saturday, Sept. 5. They met Volodymyr Zelensky (President, Ukraine) in Kyiv the next day, Sunday, Sept. 6 — the first visit to Kyiv by either man since the war began. They traveled with National Security Council, State Department and Treasury officials under a three-day halt on strikes that covered only the two capitals.
The claim. Witkoff's claim of progress was narrow: "Substantive progress was made, including movement on scheduling additional trilateral talks." ([TS]No date, venue or format has been set, and the Kremlin wouldn't say what was proposed.) Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said the envoys "outlined a number of ideas" in a three-hour meeting, and declined to say what they were.
The demand. Russia's public demand is unchanged: Ukraine drops its bid to join NATO, the U.S.-led military alliance, and cedes four regions, including land Russian troops do not hold.
"My feeling [is] that Putin needs Trump. He doesn't want to upset him."Volodymyr Zelensky (President, Ukraine), to Axios
Still open. A French official says Putin may not resume talks until after Russia's parliamentary elections on Sept. 18-20. The envoys report back to Trump and keep consulting Ukrainian and European officials.
Catch up
- Sept. 4 — Zelensky said the two envoys would come to Kyiv and return to Moscow to restart stalled talks.
- Sept. 5 — Witkoff and Kushner met Putin at the Kremlin for more than three hours. Putin then ordered a 72-hour halt to strikes covering the two capitals only.
- Sept. 6 — The envoys met Zelensky in Kyiv, the first such visit of the war. It ended with agreement on next steps and no terms: no map, no sanctions language, no security guarantees, and a promise of an announcement "in weeks."
- Sept. 7 — Ukraine's matching halt on Moscow expired. Russia's Defense Ministry had already rejected the wider Sept. 5-9 ceasefire Ukraine proposed.
7 earlier issues
- CIA chief Ratcliffe makes rare Moscow visit
- CIA chief reportedly warned Moscow against a limited Russian attack on NATO
- CIA chief secretly met Russian intelligence officials in Moscow
- UpdateCIA chief told Moscow to end the Ukraine war before Russia’s military and economy worsen
- Russia's finance minister returned to the G20 in person for the first time since the Ukraine invasion
- Witkoff and Kushner meet Putin in Moscow Sept. 5, Zelensky in Kyiv Sept. 6, carrying a U.S. proposal to end the war
- UpdatePutin orders 72-hour halt to strikes on Kyiv while Witkoff and Kushner visit, after a three-hour Kremlin meeting
What kept moving while the capitals stayed quiet
- Russia's Defense Ministry rejected a wider mutual ceasefire Ukraine proposed for Sept. 5-9
- A ballistic missile hit an industrial site in Kamianske, killing four
- Drones struck a shopping center in Mykolaiv
- Ukraine's State Emergency Service reported one dead and 10-plus wounded from drone attacks overnight Sunday, Sept. 6
Related reading
The bill would let Trump put tariffs — taxes on imported goods — on countries that buy Russian oil and gas. That would land hardest on China and India.
Quick bites11
Acton back campaigning day after armed man charged at her; Havas held on 3 counts
NBC NEWSUpdateAmy Acton (D-OH) was back on the trail Monday, Sept. 7, a day after a man charged at her at the Canfield Fair. She was unhurt. "I am a fierce warrior in this fight," she said. Patrick Havas, 38, now faces disorderly conduct and two assault counts. He shoved through the crowd carrying two handguns, brass knuckles and a Taser. He never drew any of them, and carrying them is legal in Ohio, so no weapons charge was filed.
Catch up
On Sept. 6 a man pushed through a crowd at the Canfield Fair toward Democratic gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton, knocking over several fairgoers, two of them on mobility scooters. Patrick Havas, 38, was arrested with two handguns and brass knuckles — legal to carry in Ohio — and held without bond.
Ongoing1
This story has run 2 times, starting Sep 7.
- Armed man rushed Ohio Democratic governor candidate Amy Acton at the Canfield Fair, knocking down two attendees; he faces two assault counts
- UpdateActon back campaigning day after armed man charged at her; Havas held on 3 counts — this issue
DOJ shifts its civil rights election monitors to hunting voter fraud, and wants 1,000 of them
NBC NEWSCivil Rights Division head Harmeet Dhillon is seeking roughly 1,000 monitors for the midterms, a scale the division has never reached, and fraud has not previously been part of its monitoring mandate.
45 of 70-plus GOP candidates surveyed are skipping or undecided on the Dallas convention, where tickets cost $25,000
THE GUARDIANUpdate2026 midtermsThe first Republican midterm convention opened in Dallas, and 45 of more than 70 GOP candidates and officials told Politico they are skipping it or have not decided. They cited scheduling conflicts and the $25,000 ticket price. Trump gives the keynote Wednesday, Sept. 9, and the closing remarks Thursday, Sept. 10, joined by Vice President JD Vance, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Attorney General Todd Blanche and Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Catch up
On Monday, Sept. 7, the Republican Party opened the first midterm convention in Dallas. It is the first midterm convention either party has held since the Democrats tried one in 1978.
The details
- One attendee, per The Guardian: "This is essentially a Trump rally that they're calling a midterm convention."
- The Democrats were the last party to try a midterm convention, in 1978. That meeting is remembered for exposing the split between Carter and the party's left.
Ongoing1
This story has run 2 times over 2 days, starting Sep 6.
- Trump speaks both nights of the RNC's first Midterm Convention, Sept. 9-10 in Dallas
- Update45 of 70-plus GOP candidates surveyed are skipping or undecided on the Dallas convention, where tickets cost $25,000 — this issue
Rep. Chris Deluzio says he 'might' primary Fetterman in 2028
WASHINGTON EXAMINERUpdateChris Deluzio (Rep-D Pennsylvania) says he may run against John Fetterman (Sen-D Pennsylvania) in the 2028 primary. He heard support for the idea at a Pittsburgh Labor Day parade. The opening came from a Wall Street Journal report: Fetterman skipped a meeting with paralyzed veterans to sit for a Fox News hit. He also voted with Trump's agenda 28% of the time last year, more than any other Senate Democrat. He calls the reporting anonymous smears.
On Sept. 5, two Pennsylvania House Democrats called Fetterman "lazy" and said he lacked "any sense of duty" after a Wall Street Journal report that he skipped a meeting with paralyzed veterans to appear on Fox News. Former staffers said more internal messages were coming.
What each side is saying
- Deluzio: "I might, I haven't decided that... I'm doing everything I can right now to help Democrats in Pennsylvania flip congressional seats."
- Fetterman on the reporting: "Per usual — lies, half-truths, innuendos, smears and anonymous."
- A new anonymous account threatens to publish internal Fetterman staff communications.
Newsom stumps through Alabama and the Carolinas telling Democrats to 'grow a backbone'
PBS NEWSHOURGavin Newsom (Gov-D California) is campaigning through Alabama and the Carolinas, telling Democrats to grow a backbone. In Nevada, Governor Joe Lombardo (Gov-R Nevada) is running against him by name: "I'm fighting Gavin Newsom's agenda and Aaron Ford is trying to import it into Nevada." Ford, the Democratic attorney general candidate Lombardo tied him to, took Newsom's endorsement anyway.
FCC chair puts broadcast polls on the agency's list, with no definition, no timeline and no draft
WASHINGTON EXAMINER2026 midtermsFCC Chair Brendan Carr said the agency may issue guidance to broadcasters on "fake polls," citing "a lot of interest right now" in them. He set no definition of a fake poll, no timeline and no draft.
Israeli strikes on a south Lebanon village kill 12, including 2 children
PBS NEWSHOURTwo Israeli strikes Monday, Sept. 7, on the Lebanese village of Kfar Rumman killed 12 people, Lebanese authorities said. Eleven died in a residential building, including two children and four women; a paramedic was killed in a vehicle. Seven more died in southern Lebanon the day before.
- 11 reported killed in the residential building, among them 2 children and 4 women
- 1 paramedic reported killed in a second strike on a vehicle
- 7 reported killed in southern Lebanon on Sunday, Sept. 6
UK bans trade in goods and some services from Israeli West Bank settlements
FINANCIAL TIMESThe UK will bar imports of goods and some services from Israeli settlements in the West Bank. Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband announced it Tuesday, Sept. 8, saying Britain would not accept the "destruction of the two-state solution." More than 140 Labour MPs — about a third of the parliamentary party — had signed a letter demanding the ban, and Opinium/ECFR polling puts the public 46% in favor and 18% opposed. Prime Minister Andy Burnham had given Trump warning the day before, in a phone call on Monday, Sept. 7.
Trump posts AI maps renaming New Mexico 'New America'; he has no power to rename a state
TIMETrump shared the AI-generated maps and videos on Truth Social after his Aug. 27 executive order renaming Lake Ontario 'Lake America,' but a state's name can only be changed by the state itself, not by executive order, and Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (Gov-D New Mexico) answered, "You can't be serious. New Mexico is not for renaming. Not up for sale."
NTSB: the Amazon 767 stopped 1,300 feet past the end of the Miami runway
PBS NEWSHOURUpdateThe NTSB gave its first account Monday, Sept. 7. The freighter touched down far down the runway and ran 1,300 feet past the pavement. It hit a van holding seven cleaning workers, broke the airport fence and struck an SUV on a public road. Five people on the ground died and five were hurt. Both pilots were cut out of the cockpit alive. Chairwoman Jennifer Homendy said it is too early to draw conclusions.
Catch up
On Sunday, Sept. 6, an Amazon-branded 767 arriving from San Juan overran a runway at Miami International and struck vehicles, killing five people on the ground and injuring five more, three of them critically. Both pilots, the only people aboard, were cut out of the cockpit alive the same day.
Ongoing1
This story has run 2 times, starting Sep 7.
- Amazon cargo jet overran a Miami runway and hit vehicles, killing 5 people on the ground
- UpdateNTSB: the Amazon 767 stopped 1,300 feet past the end of the Miami runway — this issue
The national debt passed $40 trillion, up from $37.6 trillion at the end of fiscal 2025
PBS NEWSHOURInflation and the FedThe debt crossed $40 trillion. At the end of fiscal 2025 it stood at $37.6 trillion, or about $110,069 for every person in the country, and 122.40% of GDP. Trump told reporters: "success does not cause inflation, stupidity causes inflation."
- Debt crossed $40 trillion, up from $37.6 trillion in FY2025
- That worked out to about $110,069 per person
- Debt was 122.40% of GDP in 2025
Elections22 races
The midterms · 56 days out · November 3, 2026
D or R take the House / Senate?
today · 7-day panel
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 88%, Kalshi 85%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 52%, Kalshi 48%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.
No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only
How to read thisthe contract, the key, and the week panel
Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.
- two venues, priced separately
- shaded = how far apart they are
- 50% — control flips here
- where it stood 7 days ago
- the last 7 days, on its own scale
- week panel: one line a party
The week panel draws one line per party, crossing where control does. Only the Democratic line is a traded price: the Republicanline is its arithmetic complement, the same mirror the bar’s other half is, and not a second market agreeing with the first. The shading around each line is how far apart the two venues are.
Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.
The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 3.0pp gap / 4.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.
Who is defending the House and the Senate is sourced, not remembered — House, 2026-07-23 issue: the NDAA passed “216-212, with six Democrats joining a unified Republican majority.”; Senate, 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.”
Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
| Day | U.S. House · Polymarket | U.S. House · Kalshi | U.S. Senate · Polymarket | U.S. Senate · Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days ago | 89% | 85% | 52% | 49% |
| 6 days ago | 90% | 85% | 52% | 48% |
| 5 days ago | 89% | 85% | 52% | 48% |
| 4 days ago | 88% | 85% | 52% | 48% |
| 3 days ago | 88% | 85% | 52% | 48% |
| 2 days ago | 87% | 85% | 52% | 47% |
| yesterday | 88% | 85% | 52% | 48% |
| today | 88% | 85% | 52% | 48% |
The 3 closest of 22 races. Open one, or all of them — every race is on the page either way.
nTexas Senate
POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election
Ken Paxton (R) faces James Talarico (D).
A dead heat — the two sides are priced within three points of each other.
Two markets, one question
Texas Senate
Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas Senate. Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 50.5%, Kalshi 52.5%; James Talarico (D): Polymarket 50.5%, Kalshi 47.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Ken Paxton 52% · James Talarico 48%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Ken Paxton (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$561K48.5%Kalshi6.1M contracts · 52%/53%51.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+2.0ppJames Talarico (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$464K50.5%Kalshi4.5M contracts · 47%/48%50.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas Senate, snapshot Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT. Day Ken Paxton · Polymarket Ken Paxton · Kalshi James Talarico · Polymarket James Talarico · Kalshi 7 days ago 48.5% 51.0% 50.5% 50.0% 6 days ago 49.5% 51.0% 50.5% 50.0% 5 days ago 49.5% 53.0% 50.5% 48.0% 4 days ago 49.5% 52.0% 50.5% 49.0% 3 days ago 50.5% 53.0% 50.5% 49.0% 2 days ago 50.5% 51.0% 50.5% 49.0% yesterday 50.5% 51.0% 50.5% 49.0% today 50.5% 52.5% 50.5% 47.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
rOhio Senate
POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election
Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).
A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Ohio Senate
Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 56.5%, Kalshi 53.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 43.5%, Kalshi 47.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Sherrod Brown 54% · Jon Husted 47%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Sherrod Brown (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$132K54.5%Kalshi1.1M contracts · 53%/54%55.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+2.0ppJon Husted (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$89.0K45.5%Kalshi1.5M contracts · 46%/48%46.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio Senate, snapshot Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT. Day Sherrod Brown · Polymarket Sherrod Brown · Kalshi Jon Husted · Polymarket Jon Husted · Kalshi 7 days ago 54.5% 55.0% 45.5% 46% 6 days ago 55.5% 54.0% 44.5% 47% 5 days ago 55.5% 54.0% 43.5% 48% 4 days ago 55.5% 53.0% 43.5% 48% 3 days ago 55.5% 54.0% 43.5% 47% 2 days ago 56.5% 53.0% 43.5% 47% yesterday 56.5% 54.0% 43.5% 47% today 56.5% 53.5% 43.5% 47% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
tGeorgia governor
POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).
Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Georgia governor
Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 57.0%, Kalshi 56.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 43.5%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Keisha Lance Bottoms 57% · Rick Jackson 44%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$34.9K59%Kalshi294K contracts · 56%/57%60%venue gap1.0pp7-day move-2.0ppRick Jackson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$39.5K40%Kalshi388K contracts · 43%/44%41%venue gap1.0pp7-day move+3.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia governor, snapshot Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT. Day Keisha Lance Bottoms · Polymarket Keisha Lance Bottoms · Kalshi Rick Jackson · Polymarket Rick Jackson · Kalshi 7 days ago 59.0% 60.0% 40.0% 41.0% 6 days ago 58.5% 59.0% 40.5% 41.0% 5 days ago 58.5% 59.0% 40.5% 43.0% 4 days ago 58.5% 58.0% 40.5% 43.0% 3 days ago 57.5% 57.0% 42.5% 43.0% 2 days ago 57.0% 56.0% 42.5% 44.0% yesterday 57.0% 57.0% 43.0% 44.0% today 57.0% 56.5% 43.5% 43.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
The other 19 races
Senate8 of 10
oAlaska Senate
POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election
Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).
A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Alaska Senate
Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 63.5%, Kalshi 65.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 36.5%, Kalshi 35.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 6–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Mary Peltola 64% · Dan Sullivan 36%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Mary Peltola (D)7 days agoPolymarket$244K63.5%Kalshi84.7K contracts · 65%/66%65.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move0.0ppDan Sullivan (R)7 days agoPolymarket$138K36.5%Kalshi74.0K contracts · 34%/37%—venue gap—7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska Senate, snapshot Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT. Day Mary Peltola · Polymarket Mary Peltola · Kalshi Dan Sullivan · Polymarket Dan Sullivan · Kalshi 7 days ago 63.5% 65.0% 36.5% — 6 days ago 63.5% 67.0% 36.5% — 5 days ago 63.5% 65.0% 36.5% 36.0% 4 days ago 63.5% 67.0% 36.5% 34.0% 3 days ago 63.5% 66.0% 36.5% 33.0% 2 days ago 63.5% 66.0% 36.5% 32.0% yesterday 63.5% 65.0% 36.5% 36.0% today 63.5% 65.5% 36.5% 35.5% wGeorgia Senate
POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election
Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia Senate
Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.6pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 93.5%, Kalshi 92.9%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 7.15%, Kalshi 7.25%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.6pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jon Ossoff 93% · Mike Collins 7.2%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jon Ossoff (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$50.9K93.5%Kalshi357K contracts · 92%/93%93.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppMike Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$76.2K6.45%Kalshi866K contracts · 6.9%/7.6%7.50%venue gap1.0pp7-day move+0.7ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia Senate, snapshot Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT. Day Jon Ossoff · Polymarket Jon Ossoff · Kalshi Mike Collins · Polymarket Mike Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 93.5% 93.0% 6.45% 7.50% 6 days ago 93.5% 93.4% 6.40% 7.40% 5 days ago 93.5% 93.6% 6.40% 7.40% 4 days ago 93.5% 93.7% 6.45% 6.80% 3 days ago 93.5% 93.4% 7.25% 7.70% 2 days ago 92.0% 93.4% 7.70% 7.80% yesterday 93.5% 92.2% 7.10% 7.90% today 93.5% 92.9% 7.15% 7.25% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
pIowa Senate
POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election
Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).
An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Iowa Senate
Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 65.5%, Kalshi 64.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 35.0%, Kalshi 36.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Ashley Hinson 65% · Josh Turek 36%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Ashley Hinson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$123K64%Kalshi1.0M contracts · 64%/65%62%venue gap2.0pp7-day move+1.5ppJosh Turek (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$112K37%Kalshi1.1M contracts · 36%/37%39%venue gap2.0pp7-day move-2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa Senate, snapshot Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT. Day Ashley Hinson · Polymarket Ashley Hinson · Kalshi Josh Turek · Polymarket Josh Turek · Kalshi 7 days ago 64.0% 62.0% 37.0% 39.0% 6 days ago 64.0% 62.0% 36.5% 40.0% 5 days ago 63.5% 63.0% 36.5% 38.0% 4 days ago 64.5% 64.0% 36.5% 37.0% 3 days ago 64.5% 65.0% 35.5% 35.0% 2 days ago 65.5% 65.0% 35.0% 36.0% yesterday 65.5% 65.0% 35.0% 37.0% today 65.5% 64.5% 35.0% 36.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
mMaine Senate
POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election
Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).
Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Maine Senate
Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 70.5%, Kalshi 68.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 29.5%, Kalshi 31.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Troy Jackson 69% · Susan Collins 31%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Troy Jackson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$753K69.5%Kalshi2.0M contracts · 68%/69%70.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+1.0ppSusan Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$511K30.5%Kalshi2.7M contracts · 31%/32%31.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Maine Senate, snapshot Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT. Day Troy Jackson · Polymarket Troy Jackson · Kalshi Susan Collins · Polymarket Susan Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 69.5% 70.0% 30.5% 31.0% 6 days ago 69.5% 70.0% 30.5% 30.0% 5 days ago 69.5% 68.0% 30.5% 32.0% 4 days ago 69.5% 69.0% 30.5% 31.0% 3 days ago 69.5% 69.0% 30.5% 32.0% 2 days ago 70.5% 69.0% 29.5% 32.0% yesterday 70.5% 69.0% 29.5% 32.0% today 70.5% 68.5% 29.5% 31.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
qMichigan Senate
POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election
Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan Senate
Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 65.5%, Kalshi 63.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 34.0%, Kalshi 36.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 64% · Mike Rogers 36%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Abdul El-Sayed (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$365K64.5%Kalshi1.3M contracts · 63%/64%64.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+1.0ppMike Rogers (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$305K35.5%Kalshi1.9M contracts · 36%/37%37.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-1.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan Senate, snapshot Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT. Day Abdul El-Sayed · Polymarket Abdul El-Sayed · Kalshi Mike Rogers · Polymarket Mike Rogers · Kalshi 7 days ago 64.5% 64.0% 35.5% 37.0% 6 days ago 64.5% 63.0% 35.5% 37.0% 5 days ago 64.5% 64.0% 35.0% 37.0% 4 days ago 65.5% 64.0% 33.5% 38.0% 3 days ago 65.5% 64.0% 33.5% 38.0% 2 days ago 65.5% 64.0% 34.0% 37.0% yesterday 65.5% 64.0% 34.0% 36.0% today 65.5% 63.5% 34.0% 36.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
xNebraska Senate
POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election
Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Nebraska Senate
Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 68.5%, Kalshi 70.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 31.5%, Kalshi 29.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Pete Ricketts 70% · Dan Osborn 30%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Pete Ricketts (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$105K68.5%Kalshi293K contracts · 70%/71%69.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppDan Osborn (I)7 days agoPolymarket$31.1K29.5%Kalshi388K contracts · 29%/30%30.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nebraska Senate, snapshot Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT. Day Pete Ricketts · Polymarket Pete Ricketts · Kalshi Dan Osborn · Polymarket Dan Osborn · Kalshi 7 days ago 68.5% 69.0% 29.5% 30.0% 6 days ago 69.0% 70.0% 31.0% 31.0% 5 days ago 69.0% 70.0% 30.5% 31.0% 4 days ago 69.5% 70.0% 30.5% 30.0% 3 days ago 69.5% 71.0% 30.5% 30.0% 2 days ago 68.5% 71.0% 31.5% 29.0% yesterday 68.5% 71.0% 31.5% 29.0% today 68.5% 70.5% 31.5% 29.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
yNew Hampshire Senate
POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election
Chris Pappas (D) leads the unresolved Democratic primary; John E. Sununu (R) leads the unresolved Republican primary.
Neither nomination is official yet, though the market already treats both as decided.
Two markets, one question
New Hampshire Senate
Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 82.5%, Kalshi 82.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 17.5%, Kalshi 18.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Chris Pappas 83% · John E. Sununu 18%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Chris Pappas (D)*7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$66.9K83.5%Kalshi114K contracts · 82%/83%83.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.0ppJohn E. Sununu (R)*7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$29.6K16.5%Kalshi226K contracts · 18%/19%17.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. New Hampshire Senate, snapshot Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT. Day Chris Pappas · Polymarket Chris Pappas · Kalshi John E. Sununu · Polymarket John E. Sununu · Kalshi 7 days ago 83.5% 83.0% 16.5% 17.0% 6 days ago 82.5% 84.0% 17.5% 18.0% 5 days ago 82.5% 84.0% 17.5% 16.0% 4 days ago 83.5% 83.0% 17.5% 18.0% 3 days ago 83.5% 81.0% 17.5% 19.0% 2 days ago 82.5% 82.0% 17.5% 18.0% yesterday 82.5% 83.0% 17.5% 19.0% today 82.5% 82.5% 17.5% 18.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
vNorth Carolina Senate
POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election
Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
North Carolina Senate
Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 91.5%, Kalshi 91.3%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 8.5%, Kalshi 9.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Roy Cooper 91% · Michael Whatley 9.0%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Roy Cooper (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$43.1K91.5%Kalshi1.3M contracts · 91%/92%91.2%venue gap0.3pp7-day move0.0ppMichael Whatley (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$59.9K8.5%Kalshi658K contracts · 8.8%/9.2%9.2%venue gap0.7pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. North Carolina Senate, snapshot Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT. Day Roy Cooper · Polymarket Roy Cooper · Kalshi Michael Whatley · Polymarket Michael Whatley · Kalshi 7 days ago 91.5% 91.2% 8.5% 9.2% 6 days ago 91.5% 91.2% 8.5% 9.1% 5 days ago 91.5% 91.1% 8.5% 9.2% 4 days ago 91.5% 91.2% 8.5% 9.0% 3 days ago 91.5% 91.2% 8.5% 9.5% 2 days ago 91.5% 91.5% 8.5% 9.5% yesterday 91.5% 91.1% 8.5% 9.3% today 91.5% 91.3% 8.5% 9.0% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
Governors11 of 12
aaAlaska governor
POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election
Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).
Wilson holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Alaska governor
Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 32.5%, Kalshi 30.5%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 1.35%, Kalshi 0.20%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Bernadette Wilson 32% · Tom Begich 0.7%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Bernadette Wilson (R)7 days agoPolymarket$171K35.5%Kalshi52.1K contracts · 29%/32%—venue gap—7-day move-3.0ppTom Begich (D)7 days agoPolymarket$159K1.25%Kalshi233K contracts · 0.1%/0.3%1.00%venue gap0.3pp7-day move+0.1ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska governor, snapshot Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT. Day Bernadette Wilson · Polymarket Bernadette Wilson · Kalshi Tom Begich · Polymarket Tom Begich · Kalshi 7 days ago 35.5% — 1.25% 1.0% 6 days ago 33.5% 30.0% 1.25% 0.1% 5 days ago 33.0% 33.0% 1.30% 0.3% 4 days ago 33.0% 31.0% 1.30% 0.3% 3 days ago 33.0% 31.0% 1.30% 0.2% 2 days ago 32.5% 33.0% 1.35% 0.7% yesterday 32.5% 31.0% 1.35% 0.1% today 32.5% 30.5% 1.35% 0.2% acArizona governor
POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election
Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Arizona governor
Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 86.5%, Kalshi 86.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 13.5%, Kalshi 13.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Katie Hobbs 87% · Andy Biggs 14%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Katie Hobbs (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$31.6K87.5%Kalshi307K contracts · 86%/87%88.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.0ppAndy Biggs (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$36.7K12.5%Kalshi243K contracts · 13%/14%15.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Arizona governor, snapshot Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT. Day Katie Hobbs · Polymarket Katie Hobbs · Kalshi Andy Biggs · Polymarket Andy Biggs · Kalshi 7 days ago 87.5% 88.0% 12.5% 15.0% 6 days ago 87.5% 88.0% 12.5% 14.0% 5 days ago 86.5% 87.0% 13.5% 15.0% 4 days ago 86.5% 87.0% 13.5% 14.0% 3 days ago 86.5% 87.0% 13.5% 14.0% 2 days ago 86.5% 87.0% 13.5% 15.0% yesterday 86.5% 87.0% 13.5% 15.0% today 86.5% 86.5% 13.5% 13.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
agFlorida governor
POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election
Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).
Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Florida governor
Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 81.5%, Kalshi 81.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 19.0%, Kalshi 18.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Byron Donalds 82% · David Jolly 19%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Byron Donalds (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$27.1K81.5%Kalshi500K contracts · 81%/82%81.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppDavid Jolly (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$31.2K19%Kalshi296K contracts · 18%/19%20%venue gap1.0pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Florida governor, snapshot Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT. Day Byron Donalds · Polymarket Byron Donalds · Kalshi David Jolly · Polymarket David Jolly · Kalshi 7 days ago 81.5% 81.0% 19% 20.0% 6 days ago 81.5% 81.0% 19% 17.0% 5 days ago 81.5% 81.0% 19% 19.0% 4 days ago 81.5% 81.0% 19% 20.0% 3 days ago 81.5% 81.0% 19% 20.0% 2 days ago 81.5% 80.0% 19% 20.0% yesterday 81.5% 81.0% 19% 19.0% today 81.5% 81.5% 19% 18.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
zIowa governor
POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election
Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Iowa governor
Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 74.5%, Kalshi 76.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 25.5%, Kalshi 24.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Rob Sand 76% · Zach Lahn 25%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Rob Sand (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$33.7K76.5%Kalshi324K contracts · 76%/77%75.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-2.0ppZach Lahn (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$44.9K24.5%Kalshi303K contracts · 24%/25%27.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa governor, snapshot Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT. Day Rob Sand · Polymarket Rob Sand · Kalshi Zach Lahn · Polymarket Zach Lahn · Kalshi 7 days ago 76.5% 75.0% 24.5% 27.0% 6 days ago 76.5% 76.0% 24.5% 27.0% 5 days ago 74.5% 76.0% 25.5% 25.0% 4 days ago 74.5% 76.0% 25.5% 24.0% 3 days ago 74.5% 77.0% 25.5% 23.0% 2 days ago 74.5% 76.0% 25.5% 23.0% yesterday 74.5% 76.0% 25.5% 24.0% today 74.5% 76.5% 25.5% 24.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
abMichigan governor
POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election
Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan governor
Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 90%, Kalshi 89%; John James (R): Polymarket 11.0%, Kalshi 11.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jocelyn Benson 89% · John James 11%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jocelyn Benson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$48.5K91%Kalshi73.2K contracts · 88%/90%87%venue gap4.0pp7-day move-1.0ppJohn James (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$154K8.5%Kalshi130K contracts · 10%/13%14.0%venue gap5.5pp7-day move+2.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan governor, snapshot Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT. Day Jocelyn Benson · Polymarket Jocelyn Benson · Kalshi John James · Polymarket John James · Kalshi 7 days ago 91.0% 87.0% 8.5% 14.0% 6 days ago 90.5% 90.2% 10.0% 12.0% 5 days ago 90.0% 87.0% 10.5% 14.0% 4 days ago 89.5% 89.0% 11.0% 12.0% 3 days ago 90.0% 92.2% 11.0% 10.0% 2 days ago 89.5% 90.1% 11.0% 12.0% yesterday 90.0% 88.0% 11.0% 12.0% today 90.0% 89.0% 11.0% 11.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
uNevada governor
POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election
Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).
Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Republican side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Nevada governor
Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 59.0%, Kalshi 60.5%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 40.5%, Kalshi 41.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Joe Lombardo 60% · Aaron Ford 41%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Joe Lombardo (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$74.6K57.5%Kalshi240K contracts · 60%/61%55.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+1.5ppAaron Ford (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$23.8K40.5%Kalshi482K contracts · 41%/42%—venue gap—7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nevada governor, snapshot Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT. Day Joe Lombardo · Polymarket Joe Lombardo · Kalshi Aaron Ford · Polymarket Aaron Ford · Kalshi 7 days ago 57.5% 55.0% 40.5% — 6 days ago 57.5% 58.0% 40.5% 42.0% 5 days ago 59.0% 61.0% 41.0% 41.0% 4 days ago 59.0% 61.0% 40.5% 40.0% 3 days ago 60.5% 60.0% 39.5% 41.0% 2 days ago 58.5% 61.0% 39.5% 42.0% yesterday 59.0% 61.0% 40.5% 42.0% today 59.0% 60.5% 40.5% 41.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
aeNew York governor
POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election
Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
New York governor
Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 94.50%, Kalshi 93.15%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 5.0%, Kalshi 7.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Kathy Hochul 93% · Bruce Blakeman 7.4%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Kathy Hochul (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$49.7K94.5%Kalshi306K contracts · 93%/93%94.1%venue gap0.4pp7-day move0.0ppBruce Blakeman (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$56.8K5.0%Kalshi894K contracts · 7.1%/7.9%7.7%venue gap2.7pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. New York governor, snapshot Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT. Day Kathy Hochul · Polymarket Kathy Hochul · Kalshi Bruce Blakeman · Polymarket Bruce Blakeman · Kalshi 7 days ago 94.5% 94.10% 5.0% 7.7% 6 days ago 94.5% 94.00% 5.0% 7.5% 5 days ago 94.5% 93.80% 4.5% 5.3% 4 days ago 93.5% 93.80% 4.5% 6.9% 3 days ago 93.5% 93.90% 5.0% 6.9% 2 days ago 94.5% 93.20% 5.0% 8.9% yesterday 94.5% 93.10% 5.0% 7.8% today 94.5% 93.15% 5.0% 7.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
lOhio governor
POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election
Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).
Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Ohio governor
Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 55.5%, Kalshi 58.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 43.5%, Kalshi 44.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Amy Acton 58% · Vivek Ramaswamy 44%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Amy Acton (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$89.5K53.5%Kalshi735K contracts · 58%/59%57.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move+2.0ppVivek Ramaswamy (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$102K45.5%Kalshi802K contracts · 44%/45%43.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio governor, snapshot Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT. Day Amy Acton · Polymarket Amy Acton · Kalshi Vivek Ramaswamy · Polymarket Vivek Ramaswamy · Kalshi 7 days ago 53.5% 57.0% 45.5% 43.0% 6 days ago 54.5% 58.0% 45.5% 42.0% 5 days ago 55.5% 57.0% 44.5% 44.0% 4 days ago 56.0% 57.0% 43.5% 44.0% 3 days ago 56.5% 58.0% 43.5% 43.0% 2 days ago 56.5% 57.0% 43.0% 43.0% yesterday 55.5% 59.0% 43.5% 43.0% today 55.5% 58.5% 43.5% 44.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
afPennsylvania governor
POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election
Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Pennsylvania governor
Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.1pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 97.05%, Kalshi 97.20%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.15%, Kalshi 3.25%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.1pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 4–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Josh Shapiro 97% · Stacy Garrity 3.1%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Josh Shapiro (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$7.5K95.5%Kalshi99.1K contracts · 97%/98%—venue gap—7-day move+1.6ppStacy Garrity (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$41.7K2.3%Kalshi392K contracts · 2.8%/3.7%—venue gap—7-day move-0.2ppEvery sample behind the chart. Pennsylvania governor, snapshot Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT. Day Josh Shapiro · Polymarket Josh Shapiro · Kalshi Stacy Garrity · Polymarket Stacy Garrity · Kalshi 7 days ago 95.50% — 2.30% — 6 days ago 96.85% — 2.25% — 5 days ago 97.25% — 2.15% 4.30% 4 days ago 97.10% — 2.20% 3.80% 3 days ago 96.75% 96.7% 2.20% 4.90% 2 days ago 96.65% 97.4% 2.15% 2.60% yesterday 97.15% 97.5% 2.15% 4.30% today 97.05% 97.2% 2.15% 3.25% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
adTexas governor
POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election
Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Texas governor
Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 82.1%, Kalshi 82.5%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 18.0%, Kalshi 17.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Greg Abbott 82% · Gina Hinojosa 18%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Greg Abbott (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$40.7K81.75%Kalshi173K contracts · 82%/83%85.00%venue gap3.2pp7-day move+0.3ppGina Hinojosa (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$52.0K18.5%Kalshi661K contracts · 17%/18%17.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas governor, snapshot Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT. Day Greg Abbott · Polymarket Greg Abbott · Kalshi Gina Hinojosa · Polymarket Gina Hinojosa · Kalshi 7 days ago 81.75% 85.0% 18.5% 17.0% 6 days ago 81.20% 84.0% 18.5% 18.0% 5 days ago 81.35% 81.0% 17.5% 20.0% 4 days ago 81.45% 82.0% 19.0% 18.0% 3 days ago 81.20% 83.0% 18.5% 18.0% 2 days ago 82.10% 83.0% 18.0% 19.0% yesterday 82.10% 80.0% 18.0% 21.0% today 82.10% 82.5% 18.0% 17.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
sWisconsin governor
POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election
David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).
An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Wisconsin governor
Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 83.0%, Kalshi 79.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 17.5%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: David Crowley 81% · Tom Tiffany 19%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
David Crowley (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$306K82.5%Kalshi452K contracts · 79%/80%80.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+0.5ppTom Tiffany (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$265K18.5%Kalshi477K contracts · 20%/21%19.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Wisconsin governor, snapshot Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT. Day David Crowley · Polymarket David Crowley · Kalshi Tom Tiffany · Polymarket Tom Tiffany · Kalshi 7 days ago 82.5% 80.0% 18.5% 19.0% 6 days ago 82.5% 78.0% 18.5% 21.0% 5 days ago 82.5% 80.0% 18.0% 21.0% 4 days ago 82.5% 80.0% 18.0% 20.0% 3 days ago 82.5% 79.0% 17.5% 20.0% 2 days ago 82.5% 79.0% 17.5% 20.0% yesterday 83.0% 79.0% 17.5% 21.0% today 83.0% 79.5% 17.5% 20.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.
Not news news2 stories
Ursula von der Leyen made the pledge on Monday, Sept. 7, while 11 NATO countries — not the United States — ran military exercises on the island.
Why this is happening. Trump has spent the year pressing for U.S. control of Greenland, a self-governing Danish territory of about 57,000 people. Europe's answer is money and presence rather than a confrontation. Von der Leyen never named him.
"Greenland's future is for the people of Greenland and Denmark to decide. No one else."Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission President
The package. €200 million ($232 million) across 2026-27, covering climate work, internet connectivity, hydropower, fisheries, education, housing and small business. That is near €3,500 for every person on the island.
The bigger number. She said EU budget support should reach about €500 million from 2028. ([TS]that is a seven-year pot — €530 million for 2028-34 against €225 million for 2021-27, per the EU's own figures.)
The other signal. Arctic Shield runs Sept. 7-18 and puts about 400 troops from Canada, Denmark and Finland on the island. Eleven NATO countries are taking part. The United States is not one of them.
What is not in it. Nothing reported in the package blocks a future U.S. minerals or basing deal, and the White House has not responded.
Moscow also gave Goethe-Institut cultural centers in Moscow and St. Petersburg until Sunday, Sept. 13, to shut, days after Berlin closed Russia's Bonn consulate and the Russia House center.
The order. Russia ordered on Monday, Sept. 7, that Germany's consulate general in St. Petersburg close by Friday, Sept. 18, and told the German government's Goethe-Institut cultural centers in Moscow and St. Petersburg to shut by Sunday, Sept. 13.
The trigger. It answers what Berlin did on Wednesday, Sept. 2, when Germany closed Russia's consulate in Bonn and the Russia House cultural center in Berlin. Both moves trace to Tuesday, Aug. 4, when an explosive-laden drone hit a parked cargo plane at Leipzig/Halle Airport. Germany blamed Russian state entities; Moscow denies any part in it. ([TS]Germany's Interior Minister said Sept. 1 that DNA and intelligence tie the operators to Russian state entities.)
What is left. St. Petersburg was Germany's last consulate general in Russia, and Bonn was Russia's last in Germany. After Sept. 18 each country has exactly one mission left in the other: an embassy in the capital.
"It was the German authorities who once again provoked a new round of escalation in bilateral relations. All responsibility for the consequences lies entirely with the German government."Russian Foreign Ministry statement
What next. German officials have not said how many staff leave St. Petersburg, and no NATO or EU statement has addressed the closures themselves.
What losing every consulate does to ordinary travelers
- Worth knowingThe Bonn consulate is closed, so appointments booked there or mail sent to it will not be honored; only the Berlin embassy handles these services now.
- Worth knowingTravelers in St. Petersburg or elsewhere in Russia cannot rely on a nearby consulate after Sept. 18; all emergency consular help must come from the Moscow embassy.
- Roughly 60 Russian diplomats, including Consul General Oleg Krasnitsky, were ordered out of Bonn; counts including families run to about 70.