Political Guyentist
Political Guyentist

Tuesday

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1usUpdateImmigration enforcement

A far-right party won a German state election outright for the first time, taking 43.8%

Alternative for Germany more than doubled its 2021 vote in Saxony-Anhalt. Chancellor Friedrich Merz's party fell to 17.2% and lost a state it had run for 24 years; he says he will not resign.

Going into the vote on Sunday, Sept. 6, polls already put AfD first in Saxony-Anhalt, and every other party had ruled out governing with it. Preliminary counts that night gave the party 44.6% and Merz's CDU 16.9%. The official result on Monday, Sept. 7, settled slightly lower, at 43.8% and 17.2%, and cost the CDU a state it had run for 24 years. AfD's previous best anywhere was 32.8% in Thuringia in September 2024.

ContextAfD's previous state ceiling was 32.8% in Thuringia in September 2024 — the first far-right first-place finish in a German state since 1945 — and 30.6% in Saxony the same day. Saxony-Anhalt's 43.8% clears both by more than 11 points. In Thuringia the CDU still refused AfD and built a minority government with BSW and the SPD. Nationally, AfD has overtaken the CDU in polling, and Merz's approval has fallen with it.

CBS NEWS12 sources

2usUpdateIran war

Iran says it will declare a restricted zone near the Strait of Hormuz and will strike threats "even before" they are carried out

Tehran also doubled the price of gasoline for its heaviest users, the 15% of consumers who buy the most, for the second time since December.

- Aug. 10 — Tehran said it would keep Hormuz shut until the U.S. unfroze Iranian assets and lifted its naval blockade. - Aug. 20 — With the 60-day truce expired, Trump declared an "economic D-Day" on Iran; only 10 to 12 ships a day were crossing the strait. - Sept. 1 — U.S. bombs hit rocket sites near the strait and IRGC coastal air defenses; Iran fired eight missiles at bases in Jordan, all intercepted. - Sept. 3 — U.S. hit about 100 targets; Iranian officials counted at least 18 dead, four at a wedding compound in Kuhestak. - Sept. 5 — U.S. forces disabled three Iranian oil tankers after Iran fired ballistic missiles at a U.S. carrier and destroyer. - Sept. 6 — Iran claimed it struck an unmanned U.S. vessel; Central Command called the claim "a total lie."

ContextThe Strait of Hormuz normally moves 15 million barrels of crude a day, near a third of seaborne oil trade. The waterway is not formally closed — the White House says it is open and under U.S. control and the Navy says it has cleared mines — but transits were running about 95% below normal as of Aug. 27, 2026. U.S. retail diesel hit $5.60 a gallon on Aug. 31, 2026, just 18 cents under the record $5.78 set in June 2022 (EIA), and the U.S. military has redirected 94 commercial vessels since the fighting began. Iran's heaviest 15% of fuel buyers now pay 100,000 rials a liter, double December's rate.

AP11 sources

3usUpdatecontestedTariffs and trade

Canada's 15%-50% tariffs on $20 billion of U.S. goods took effect just after midnight Tuesday, Sept. 8

Hours earlier Trump posted "NO MORE SELLING BOMBARDIER IN THE UNITED STATES!" — the Quebec planemaker runs a Kansas plant with 3,500 American workers.

- Aug. 19 — Trump paused a 50% tariff on about $20.2 billion of Canadian goods two hours before it was due to take effect. - Aug. 22 — The replacement deadline passed with nothing signed. - Aug. 25 — The U.S. duties went on, covering $27.6 billion of Canadian products. Ottawa promised to match them dollar for dollar on Sept. 8. - Aug. 26 — Canada published a list of more than 700 American products it would tax. - Sept. 6 — Trump posted that Canada's "Dollar imbalance with the U.S. is unacceptable." Ottawa did not move its deadline.

ContextCanada and the United States traded $762.10 billion in goods in 2024, more than the U.S. did with any other country except Mexico (U.S. Census Bureau). Industrial supplies including energy account for 51.6% of U.S. imports from Canada, automotive vehicles, parts, and engines 13.9%, and capital goods except automotive 13.8% — so the layered 50% duties hit factory inputs, not finished consumer goods. This is the fourth escalation since February 2025, when Trump's opening 25% tariff drew a CA$155 billion Canadian response against tonight's roughly $20 billion.

ABC NEWS8 sources

4usUpdate2026 midterms

Witkoff says Moscow-Kyiv trip produced 'substantive progress' on scheduling more talks, with no date set and no terms disclosed

Zelensky told Axios he believes Putin "needs Trump" ahead of the Nov. 3 midterms; Bloomberg's sources say Putin remains committed to continuing the war.

- Sept. 4 — Zelensky said the two envoys would come to Kyiv and return to Moscow to restart stalled talks. - Sept. 5 — Witkoff and Kushner met Putin at the Kremlin for more than three hours. Putin then ordered a 72-hour halt to strikes covering the two capitals only. - Sept. 6 — The envoys met Zelensky in Kyiv, the first such visit of the war. It ended with agreement on next steps and no terms: no map, no sanctions language, no security guarantees, and a promise of an announcement "in weeks." - Sept. 7 — Ukraine's matching halt on Moscow expired. Russia's Defense Ministry had already rejected the wider Sept. 5-9 ceasefire Ukraine proposed.

ContextEvery announced pause in this war has broken. Putin's Jan. 5, 2023 holiday truce failed on day one. The 30-hour Easter truce in April 2025 drew Ukrainian claims of 2,000-plus violations and Russian claims of 1,000-plus, and a 32-hour Easter pause in April 2026 drew 469 logged violations. Congress is a separate lever: the Senate passed Sen. Lindsey Graham's Russia sanctions bill 86-11 on Aug. 7, and Speaker Mike Johnson (Rep-R Louisiana) said on Sept. 3 that he doubts a House vote before the midterms.

AXIOS10 sources

5not newslongform

Trump wants Greenland. The EU showed up in Nuuk with €200 million and a promise to more than double it.

Ursula von der Leyen made the pledge on Monday, Sept. 7, while 11 NATO countries — not the United States — ran military exercises on the island.

Greenland is a self-governing Danish territory of about 57,000 people — fewer than live in a mid-sized American town. Trump has pushed for U.S. control since returning to office. In January his administration threatened tariffs on Denmark and seven allies over Arctic exercises, then withdrew them after a NATO security deal. Betting market Polymarket, where traders buy and sell contracts on future events, prices the odds that Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 in the low single digits.

ContextGreenland is a self-governing Danish territory of about 57,000 people — fewer than live in a mid-sized American town. Trump has pushed for U.S. control since returning to office. In January his administration threatened tariffs on Denmark and seven allies over Arctic exercises, then withdrew them after a NATO security deal. Betting market Polymarket, where traders buy and sell contracts on future events, prices the odds that Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 in the low single digits.

WSJ5 sources

6not newslongformRussia-Ukraine war

Russia orders Germany's last consulate in Russia closed by Sept. 18, leaving one embassy each

Moscow also gave Goethe-Institut cultural centers in Moscow and St. Petersburg until Sunday, Sept. 13, to shut, days after Berlin closed Russia's Bonn consulate and the Russia House center.

What losing every consulate does to ordinary travelers: Russians living in Germany must now use the Berlin embassy for passports, visas and civil documents. Germans in Russia lose the only office outside Moscow that could help with an emergency passport or a detained citizen. Roughly 60 Russian diplomats, including Consul General Oleg Krasnitsky, were ordered out of Bonn; counts including families run to about 70.

ContextThe order is a mirror image of Germany's move a week earlier. On Wednesday, Sept. 2, Berlin shut Russia's consulate in Bonn and the Russia House cultural center in Berlin; on Monday, Sept. 7, Moscow shut Germany's consulate general in St. Petersburg and two Goethe-Institut centers, the German government's language and culture agency abroad. Each closure took out the other side's last consulate — a diplomatic office outside the capital that handles passports, visas and citizens in trouble. This does not cut diplomatic relations: after Friday, Sept. 18, each country still keeps an embassy in the other's capital, and every consular task now runs through those two buildings. Both moves trace to one event, an explosive-carrying drone that struck a parked cargo plane at Leipzig/Halle Airport on Tuesday, Aug. 4. Germany blamed Russian state entities. Moscow denies any role. Germany has not said how many staff must leave St. Petersburg, and the sources here give no count.

PBS NEWSHOUR3 sources

Tuesday · The daily brief

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Executive summary6 stories

News news4

  1. A far-right party won a German state election outright for the first time, taking 43.8%Alternative for Germany more than doubled its 2021 vote in Saxony-Anhalt. Chancellor Friedrich Merz's party fell to 17.2% and lost a state it had run for 24 years; he says he will not resign.
  2. Iran says it will declare a restricted zone near the Strait of Hormuz and will strike threats "even before" they are carried outTehran also doubled the price of gasoline for its heaviest users, the 15% of consumers who buy the most, for the second time since December.
  3. Canada's 15%-50% tariffs on $20 billion of U.S. goods took effect just after midnight Tuesday, Sept. 8Hours earlier Trump posted "NO MORE SELLING BOMBARDIER IN THE UNITED STATES!" — the Quebec planemaker runs a Kansas plant with 3,500 American workers.
  4. Witkoff says Moscow-Kyiv trip produced 'substantive progress' on scheduling more talks, with no date set and no terms disclosedZelensky told Axios he believes Putin "needs Trump" ahead of the Nov. 3 midterms; Bloomberg's sources say Putin remains committed to continuing the war.

Not news news2

  1. Trump wants Greenland. The EU showed up in Nuuk with €200 million and a promise to more than double it.Ursula von der Leyen made the pledge on Monday, Sept. 7, while 11 NATO countries — not the United States — ran military exercises on the island.
  2. Russia orders Germany's last consulate in Russia closed by Sept. 18, leaving one embassy eachMoscow also gave Goethe-Institut cultural centers in Moscow and St. Petersburg until Sunday, Sept. 13, to shut, days after Berlin closed Russia's Bonn consulate and the Russia House center.

News news4 stories

CBS NEWSUpdateImmigration enforcement

A far-right party won a German state election outright for the first time, taking 43.8%

Alternative for Germany more than doubled its 2021 vote in Saxony-Anhalt. Chancellor Friedrich Merz's party fell to 17.2% and lost a state it had run for 24 years; he says he will not resign.

What this was. Saxony-Anhalt, one of Germany's 16 states, elected its legislature on Sunday, Sept. 6. Think a US governor's race, not a national one. Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern vote next, on Sept. 20.

Who won. Alternative for Germany — AfD — is a far-right, anti-immigration party that every other German party refuses to govern with. It took 43.8%: its best result in any state in its history, and more than double the 21.5% it won here in 2021.

The catch. It holds 39 of the 83 seats. That is three short of a majority, so it still needs a partner nobody has offered.

Merz. Chancellor Friedrich Merz runs the national government. His Christian Democrats took 17.2%, down from 37.1%, and lost a state they had run for 24 years. He called it their worst defeat in decades on Monday, Sept. 7, and said he will not step down.

The reaction. AfD's lead candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, thanked Elon Musk on the night of the result. Trump posted the exit poll; a Kremlin envoy praised the outcome.

"We must reclaim our old, safe, beautiful Germany. We proved that yesterday."Ulrich Siegmund (AfD)

Going into the vote on Sunday, Sept. 6, polls already put AfD first in Saxony-Anhalt, and every other party had ruled out governing with it. Preliminary counts that night gave the party 44.6% and Merz's CDU 16.9%. The official result on Monday, Sept. 7, settled slightly lower, at 43.8% and 17.2%, and cost the CDU a state it had run for 24 years. AfD's previous best anywhere was 32.8% in Thuringia in September 2024.

BackgroundWhat a German state government can actually do4 facts
  • Schools, culture, policing and public broadcasting are state powers; migration and deportation law are set in Berlin and Brussels.
  • AfD's state manifesto includes separate classes for asylum-seekers' children, a rainbow-flag ban and wider home-schooling rights.
  • Siegmund has floated pulling Saxony-Anhalt out of regional broadcaster MDR, which would require inter-state treaty procedures.
  • AfD took just over 20% in the 2025 federal election, less than half its Saxony-Anhalt share.

Related reading

SEMI-RELATEDTraders put Merz leaving the chancellorship before 2027 at 14.5%

Read more about: Traders put Merz leaving the chancellorship before 2027 at 14.5%

No contract prices whether AfD forms a Saxony-Anhalt government; the closest markets bet only on Merz's own tenure.

Ongoing16 earlier updates47 days

This story has run 17 times over 47 days, starting Jul 23.

  1. Trump Threatens to Bomb Iranian Bridges and Power Plants for Every Ship Hit in Strait of Hormuz
  2. Iran fires multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. base in Jordan; all are intercepted
  3. Iran denies Trump’s claim that new U.S. talks would start Monday
  4. Cargo ship is struck in the Strait of Hormuz
  5. Vance says the Iran talks are moving, then calls the war only half over
  6. Iran won't reopen Hormuz until the US unfreezes its assets and lifts the blockade
  7. Trump threatens to bomb Oman, the U.S. ally brokering the deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
  8. Trump declares an "economic D-Day" on Iran as Hormuz traffic runs 85% below normal
  9. UpdateU.S. goes nearly a month without large Iran strikes as Trump shifts back to sanctions; Hormuz remains closed
  10. U.S. destroys two Iranian rocket launchers loaded to mine the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at bases in Jordan, all intercepted
  11. UpdateU.S. bombs two Iranian rocket sites near the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at Jordan
  12. UpdateU.S. forces struck IRGC air-defense, radar, maritime and mine-laying sites on Iran's southern coast starting at noon on Sept. 1
  13. UpdateU.S. hits about 100 Iranian targets; Iran fires back at American bases in four countries, and a cruise missile kills 4 at a wedding
  14. Reuters weapons experts say a US munition made a direct hit on the Iranian wedding house that killed 5
  15. US destroys or disables 3 Iranian oil tankers after Iran fired ballistic missiles at a US carrier and destroyer
  16. UpdateIran says it hit an unmanned US vessel a day after the tanker strikes; Central Command calls the claim "a total lie"
  17. UpdateIran says it will declare a restricted zone near the Strait of Hormuz and will strike threats "even before" they are carried out — this issue
APUpdateIran war

Iran says it will declare a restricted zone near the Strait of Hormuz and will strike threats "even before" they are carried out

Tehran also doubled the price of gasoline for its heaviest users, the 15% of consumers who buy the most, for the second time since December.

The zone. Iran's security council chief, Mohsen Rezaei, said Monday, Sept. 7, that Tehran will set up a restricted "exclusion zone" near the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days.

The doctrine. State media, showing off an upgraded Qassem Basir ballistic missile with a range of 1,200 kilometers (745 miles), said the weapon demonstrates a new doctrine: Iran "will take action against any threat, even before it is carried out."

The trigger. The announcements came two days after U.S. forces disabled three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday, Sept. 5, in retaliation for missiles fired at American warships.

Washington's answer. The White House said the waterway "is open and controlled by the U.S.," that the Navy has cleared the strait of mines, and that traffic to non-Iranian ports will keep rising. ([TS]Al Jazeera counted transits down 95% from normal as of Aug. 27.) The U.S. military has redirected 94 commercial vessels because of the conflict as of Monday, Sept. 7.

Pump prices. At home, Tehran doubled pump prices for its heaviest fuel buyers — the 15% who buy the most — to 100,000 rials a liter, about 7 cents, from 50,000 rials in December.

Still open. Rezaei gave no date, no coordinates and no stated penalty for entering the zone.

Catch upwhat happened before · 16 earlier issues
  • Aug. 10 — Tehran said it would keep Hormuz shut until the U.S. unfroze Iranian assets and lifted its naval blockade.
  • Aug. 20 — With the 60-day truce expired, Trump declared an "economic D-Day" on Iran; only 10 to 12 ships a day were crossing the strait.
  • Sept. 1 — U.S. bombs hit rocket sites near the strait and IRGC coastal air defenses; Iran fired eight missiles at bases in Jordan, all intercepted.
  • Sept. 3 — U.S. hit about 100 targets; Iranian officials counted at least 18 dead, four at a wedding compound in Kuhestak.
  • Sept. 5 — U.S. forces disabled three Iranian oil tankers after Iran fired ballistic missiles at a U.S. carrier and destroyer.
  • Sept. 6 — Iran claimed it struck an unmanned U.S. vessel; Central Command called the claim "a total lie."
15 earlier issues
How each side has already choked the strait, and the priceIran's Revolutionary Guard first declared the strait closed to "unfriendly nations" on March 2, 20263 details
  • Iran's Revolutionary Guard first declared the strait closed to "unfriendly nations" on March 2, 2026
  • The U.S. blockade of Iranian ports has run since April 13 and uses more than 20 warships
  • Barclays now forecasts Brent at $100 a barrel for 2026, up from its earlier $85 call
Currently showing U.S. average retail diesel price
U.S. average retail diesel price
U.S. average retail diesel price Monthly last weekly observation Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EMD_EPD2D_PTE_NUS_DPG), dollars per gallon $3.00 $4.00 $5.00 $6.00 $3.41 $5.60 June 2022 record $5.81 2022-06-27: June 2022 record $5.81 2021-09-27 2022-12-26 2024-03-25 2025-05-26 2026-08-31
Ongoing7 earlier updates19 days

This story has run 8 times over 19 days, starting Aug 20.

  1. Trump pauses 50% Canada tariff two hours before it hits, buying three days
  2. Trump imposed 50% tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian goods and threatened the same rate on autos and steel
  3. Canada tariffs nearly $20 billion in U.S. goods to match Trump’s 50% levies
  4. Trump calls it a rejection of all Canadian imports; the enacted 50% tariffs cover about 5%
  5. Trade talks with Canada collapse, leaving 50% U.S. tariffs on $27.6 billion of Canadian goods
  6. UpdateCanada tariffs $20B of U.S. goods Sept. 8; U.S. trade rep says no talks underway
  7. UpdateCanada's 50% tariffs on $27.6B of U.S. goods start Tuesday, Sept. 8
  8. UpdateCanada's 15%-50% tariffs on $20 billion of U.S. goods took effect just after midnight Tuesday, Sept. 8 — this issue
ABC NEWSUpdateTariffs and trade

Canada's 15%-50% tariffs on $20 billion of U.S. goods took effect just after midnight Tuesday, Sept. 8

Hours earlier Trump posted "NO MORE SELLING BOMBARDIER IN THE UNITED STATES!" — the Quebec planemaker runs a Kansas plant with 3,500 American workers.

What is actually on the list. Ottawa came in lighter and more targeted than it had signalled: roughly $20 billion of American goods, taxed at 15%, 25% or 50%, each rate matched to whatever the U.S. charges on the same product. They answer the U.S. tariffs that went on $27.6 billion of Canadian goods on Tuesday, Aug. 25 — the figure that circulated yesterday as Canada’s own number.

The threat. Hours before the deadline, Trump wrote on Truth Social that Bombardier, the Quebec-based planemaker, must move production to the U.S. or lose the American market. ([TS]Its Wichita plant already holds a live Air Force contract, per GovCon Wire.)

"NO MORE SELLING BOMBARDIER IN THE UNITED STATES! If they want our Market, they must build here, and stop treating America like a 'piggybank.'"Donald Trump

The Wichita plant. The company already builds in America. Its Wichita, Kansas plant employs 3,500 people making special-mission military aircraft, and Sen. Jerry Moran (Sen-R Kansas) said he had contacted the administration to protect those jobs.

Still open. The White House has not said what legal tool, if any, would carry out the Bombardier threat. No talks between the two governments are scheduled.

Catch upwhat happened before · 7 earlier issues
  • Aug. 19 — Trump paused a 50% tariff on about $20.2 billion of Canadian goods two hours before it was due to take effect.
  • Aug. 22 — The replacement deadline passed with nothing signed.
  • Aug. 25 — The U.S. duties went on, covering $27.6 billion of Canadian products. Ottawa promised to match them dollar for dollar on Sept. 8.
  • Aug. 26 — Canada published a list of more than 700 American products it would tax.
  • Sept. 6 — Trump posted that Canada's "Dollar imbalance with the U.S. is unacceptable." Ottawa did not move its deadline.
6 earlier issues
What the Pentagon buys from Bombardier's Wichita and Tucson linesA $464.8 million Air Force award for up to six Global 6000 jets carrying battlefield communications relays3 details
  • A $464.8 million Air Force award for up to six Global 6000 jets carrying battlefield communications relays
  • A Global 6500 delivered to the U.S. Army's HADES surveillance program in November 2024
  • Modification, interior and paint work split between Wichita, Kansas and Tucson, Arizona

Red take

Canada can reach $20 billion of American goods; Washington's duties already sit on $27.6 billion of Canada's. That gap is the whole argument for using it. Yes, Bombardier already builds in America — 3,500 in Wichita, a live $464.8 million Air Force award — and yes, cutting that off would bill the Pentagon for its own leverage. So the threat is not aimed at Kansas; it is aimed at Quebec, and it states the terms plainly: "If they want our Market, they must build here." Carney walked away Sept. 1 believing time was on his side. On the arithmetic of the two tariff lists, it is not.

Blue take

America is the bigger market, and Canada feels these tariffs more per capita — that much is true. But leverage is only worth what you trade it for, and this has bought nothing: talks collapsed Sept. 1, none are scheduled, and Canada's matched 15%-50% duties on $20 billion of U.S. goods went live just after midnight Sept. 8. Meanwhile the threat to end "SELLING BOMBARDIER IN THE UNITED STATES" points at a Wichita plant with 3,500 American workers and a live $464.8 million Air Force contract, which is why Sen. Jerry Moran called the administration to protect them. Threats the White House cannot name a legal tool for do not move factories. They move prices.

Related reading

RELATEDCanada's counter-tariff list covers dairy, tissue, appliances, lumber and clothing at 15% to 50%

More than 700 categories are named, with steel and aluminum bars, foil and wire doubled to 50%.

Ongoing8 earlier updates13 days

This story has run 9 times over 13 days, starting Aug 26.

  1. CIA chief Ratcliffe makes rare Moscow visit
  2. CIA chief reportedly warned Moscow against a limited Russian attack on NATO
  3. CIA chief secretly met Russian intelligence officials in Moscow
  4. UpdateCIA chief told Moscow to end the Ukraine war before Russia’s military and economy worsen
  5. Russia's finance minister returned to the G20 in person for the first time since the Ukraine invasion
  6. Witkoff and Kushner meet Putin in Moscow Sept. 5, Zelensky in Kyiv Sept. 6, carrying a U.S. proposal to end the war
  7. UpdatePutin orders 72-hour halt to strikes on Kyiv while Witkoff and Kushner visit, after a three-hour Kremlin meeting
  8. UpdateWitkoff and Kushner hold first Kyiv talks of the war, agreeing on next steps but no terms; announcement promised in weeks
  9. UpdateWitkoff says Moscow-Kyiv trip produced 'substantive progress' on scheduling more talks, with no date set and no terms disclosed — this issue
AXIOSUpdate2026 midterms

Witkoff says Moscow-Kyiv trip produced 'substantive progress' on scheduling more talks, with no date set and no terms disclosed

Zelensky told Axios he believes Putin "needs Trump" ahead of the Nov. 3 midterms; Bloomberg reported that Putin remains committed to continuing the war.

The trips. Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Donald Trump's envoys, met Vladimir Putin (President, Russia) in Moscow on Saturday, Sept. 5. They met Volodymyr Zelensky (President, Ukraine) in Kyiv the next day, Sunday, Sept. 6 — the first visit to Kyiv by either man since the war began. They traveled with National Security Council, State Department and Treasury officials under a three-day halt on strikes that covered only the two capitals.

The claim. Witkoff's claim of progress was narrow: "Substantive progress was made, including movement on scheduling additional trilateral talks." ([TS]No date, venue or format has been set, and the Kremlin wouldn't say what was proposed.) Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said the envoys "outlined a number of ideas" in a three-hour meeting, and declined to say what they were.

The demand. Russia's public demand is unchanged: Ukraine drops its bid to join NATO, the U.S.-led military alliance, and cedes four regions, including land Russian troops do not hold.

"My feeling [is] that Putin needs Trump. He doesn't want to upset him."Volodymyr Zelensky (President, Ukraine), to Axios

Still open. A French official says Putin may not resume talks until after Russia's parliamentary elections on Sept. 18-20. The envoys report back to Trump and keep consulting Ukrainian and European officials.

Catch upwhat happened before · 8 earlier issues
  • Sept. 4 — Zelensky said the two envoys would come to Kyiv and return to Moscow to restart stalled talks.
  • Sept. 5 — Witkoff and Kushner met Putin at the Kremlin for more than three hours. Putin then ordered a 72-hour halt to strikes covering the two capitals only.
  • Sept. 6 — The envoys met Zelensky in Kyiv, the first such visit of the war. It ended with agreement on next steps and no terms: no map, no sanctions language, no security guarantees, and a promise of an announcement "in weeks."
  • Sept. 7 — Ukraine's matching halt on Moscow expired. Russia's Defense Ministry had already rejected the wider Sept. 5-9 ceasefire Ukraine proposed.
7 earlier issues
What kept moving while the capitals stayed quietRussia's Defense Ministry rejected a wider mutual ceasefire Ukraine proposed for Sept. 5-94 details
  • Russia's Defense Ministry rejected a wider mutual ceasefire Ukraine proposed for Sept. 5-9
  • A ballistic missile hit an industrial site in Kamianske, killing four
  • Drones struck a shopping center in Mykolaiv
  • Ukraine's State Emergency Service reported one dead and 10-plus wounded from drone attacks overnight Sunday, Sept. 6

Related reading

RELATEDSenate passed a Russia sanctions bill 86-11 on Aug. 7; the House has not voted

The bill would let Trump put tariffs — taxes on imported goods — on countries that buy Russian oil and gas. That would land hardest on China and India.

Quick bites11

Elections6 bites

  1. Acton back campaigning day after armed man charged at her; Havas held on 3 counts

    NBC NEWSUpdate

    Amy Acton (D-OH) was back on the trail Monday, Sept. 7, a day after a man charged at her at the Canfield Fair. She was unhurt. "I am a fierce warrior in this fight," she said. Patrick Havas, 38, now faces disorderly conduct and two assault counts. He shoved through the crowd carrying two handguns, brass knuckles and a Taser. He never drew any of them, and carrying them is legal in Ohio, so no weapons charge was filed.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 1 earlier issue

    On Sept. 6 a man pushed through a crowd at the Canfield Fair toward Democratic gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton, knocking over several fairgoers, two of them on mobility scooters. Patrick Havas, 38, was arrested with two handguns and brass knuckles — legal to carry in Ohio — and held without bond.

    Ongoing1

    This story has run 2 times, starting Sep 7.

    1. Armed man rushed Ohio Democratic governor candidate Amy Acton at the Canfield Fair, knocking down two attendees; he faces two assault counts
    2. UpdateActon back campaigning day after armed man charged at her; Havas held on 3 counts — this issue

  2. DOJ shifts its civil rights election monitors to hunting voter fraud, and wants 1,000 of them

    NBC NEWS

    Civil Rights Division head Harmeet Dhillon is seeking roughly 1,000 monitors for the midterms, a scale the division has never reached, and fraud has not previously been part of its monitoring mandate.

  3. 45 of 70-plus GOP candidates surveyed are skipping or undecided on the Dallas convention, where tickets cost $25,000

    THE GUARDIANUpdate2026 midterms

    The first Republican midterm convention opened in Dallas, and 45 of more than 70 GOP candidates and officials told Politico they are skipping it or have not decided. They cited scheduling conflicts and the $25,000 ticket price. Trump gives the keynote Wednesday, Sept. 9, and the closing remarks Thursday, Sept. 10, joined by Vice President JD Vance, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Attorney General Todd Blanche and Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 1 earlier issue

    On Monday, Sept. 7, the Republican Party opened the first midterm convention in Dallas. It is the first midterm convention either party has held since the Democrats tried one in 1978.

    The detailsOne attendee, per The Guardian: "This is essentially a Trump rally that they're calling a midterm convention."2 details
    • One attendee, per The Guardian: "This is essentially a Trump rally that they're calling a midterm convention."
    • The Democrats were the last party to try a midterm convention, in 1978. That meeting is remembered for exposing the split between Carter and the party's left.
    Ongoing1

    This story has run 2 times over 2 days, starting Sep 6.

    1. Trump speaks both nights of the RNC's first Midterm Convention, Sept. 9-10 in Dallas
    2. Update45 of 70-plus GOP candidates surveyed are skipping or undecided on the Dallas convention, where tickets cost $25,000 — this issue

  4. Rep. Chris Deluzio says he 'might' primary Fetterman in 2028

    WASHINGTON EXAMINERUpdate

    Chris Deluzio (Rep-D Pennsylvania) says he may run against John Fetterman (Sen-D Pennsylvania) in the 2028 primary. He heard support for the idea at a Pittsburgh Labor Day parade. The opening came from a Wall Street Journal report: Fetterman skipped a meeting with paralyzed veterans to sit for a Fox News hit. He also voted with Trump's agenda 28% of the time last year, more than any other Senate Democrat. He calls the reporting anonymous smears.

    On Sept. 5, two Pennsylvania House Democrats called Fetterman "lazy" and said he lacked "any sense of duty" after a Wall Street Journal report that he skipped a meeting with paralyzed veterans to appear on Fox News. Former staffers said more internal messages were coming.

    What each side is sayingDeluzio: "I might, I haven't decided that...3 details
    • Deluzio: "I might, I haven't decided that... I'm doing everything I can right now to help Democrats in Pennsylvania flip congressional seats."
    • Fetterman on the reporting: "Per usual — lies, half-truths, innuendos, smears and anonymous."
    • A new anonymous account threatens to publish internal Fetterman staff communications.

  5. Newsom stumps through Alabama and the Carolinas telling Democrats to 'grow a backbone'

    PBS NEWSHOUR

    Gavin Newsom (Gov-D California) is campaigning through Alabama and the Carolinas, telling Democrats to grow a backbone. In Nevada, Governor Joe Lombardo (Gov-R Nevada) is running against him by name: "I'm fighting Gavin Newsom's agenda and Aaron Ford is trying to import it into Nevada." Ford, the Democratic attorney general candidate Lombardo tied him to, took Newsom's endorsement anyway.

  6. FCC chair puts broadcast polls on the agency's list, with no definition, no timeline and no draft

    WASHINGTON EXAMINER2026 midterms

    FCC Chair Brendan Carr said the agency may issue guidance to broadcasters on "fake polls," citing "a lot of interest right now" in them. He set no definition of a fake poll, no timeline and no draft.

Israel's war and its fallout2 bites

  1. Israeli strikes on a south Lebanon village kill 12, including 2 children

    PBS NEWSHOUR

    Two Israeli strikes Monday, Sept. 7, on the Lebanese village of Kfar Rumman killed 12 people, Lebanese authorities said. Eleven died in a residential building, including two children and four women; a paramedic was killed in a vehicle. Seven more died in southern Lebanon the day before.

    • 11 reported killed in the residential building, among them 2 children and 4 women
    • 1 paramedic reported killed in a second strike on a vehicle
    • 7 reported killed in southern Lebanon on Sunday, Sept. 6

  2. UK bans trade in goods and some services from Israeli West Bank settlements

    FINANCIAL TIMES

    The UK will bar imports of goods and some services from Israeli settlements in the West Bank. Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband announced it Tuesday, Sept. 8, saying Britain would not accept the "destruction of the two-state solution." More than 140 Labour MPs — about a third of the parliamentary party — had signed a letter demanding the ban, and Opinium/ECFR polling puts the public 46% in favor and 18% opposed. Prime Minister Andy Burnham had given Trump warning the day before, in a phone call on Monday, Sept. 7.

Also tonight3 bites

  1. Trump posts AI maps renaming New Mexico 'New America'; he has no power to rename a state

    TIME

    Trump shared the AI-generated maps and videos on Truth Social after his Aug. 27 executive order renaming Lake Ontario 'Lake America,' but a state's name can only be changed by the state itself, not by executive order, and Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (Gov-D New Mexico) answered, "You can't be serious. New Mexico is not for renaming. Not up for sale."

  2. NTSB: the Amazon 767 stopped 1,300 feet past the end of the Miami runway

    PBS NEWSHOURUpdate

    The NTSB gave its first account Monday, Sept. 7. The freighter touched down far down the runway and ran 1,300 feet past the pavement. It hit a van holding seven cleaning workers, broke the airport fence and struck an SUV on a public road. Five people on the ground died and five were hurt. Both pilots were cut out of the cockpit alive. Chairwoman Jennifer Homendy said it is too early to draw conclusions.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 1 earlier issue

    On Sunday, Sept. 6, an Amazon-branded 767 arriving from San Juan overran a runway at Miami International and struck vehicles, killing five people on the ground and injuring five more, three of them critically. Both pilots, the only people aboard, were cut out of the cockpit alive the same day.

    Ongoing1

    This story has run 2 times, starting Sep 7.

    1. Amazon cargo jet overran a Miami runway and hit vehicles, killing 5 people on the ground
    2. UpdateNTSB: the Amazon 767 stopped 1,300 feet past the end of the Miami runway — this issue

  3. The national debt passed $40 trillion, up from $37.6 trillion at the end of fiscal 2025

    PBS NEWSHOURInflation and the Fed

    The debt crossed $40 trillion. At the end of fiscal 2025 it stood at $37.6 trillion, or about $110,069 for every person in the country, and 122.40% of GDP. Trump told reporters: "success does not cause inflation, stupidity causes inflation."

    • Debt crossed $40 trillion, up from $37.6 trillion in FY2025
    • That worked out to about $110,069 per person
    • Debt was 122.40% of GDP in 2025

Elections22 races

The midterms · 56 days out · November 3, 2026

D or R take the House / Senate?

Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT
today · 7-day panel

U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 88%, Kalshi 85%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 52%, Kalshi 48%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

U.S. House — Democrats take it, 84.5–87.5%
88%85%chance Democrats take it · 3.0pp apart · both venues down this week
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 88% and Kalshi 85%.
U.S. Senate — Republicans retain it, 48.5–52.5%
52%48%chance Democrats take it · 4.0pp apart · no clear move — one venue moved, the other did not
U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 52% and Kalshi 48%.

No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only

How to read thisthe contract, the key, and the week panel

Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.

  • two venues, priced separately
  • shaded = how far apart they are
  • 50% — control flips here
  • where it stood 7 days ago
  • the last 7 days, on its own scale
  • week panel: one line a party

The week panel draws one line per party, crossing where control does. Only the Democratic line is a traded price: the Republicanline is its arithmetic complement, the same mirror the bar’s other half is, and not a second market agreeing with the first. The shading around each line is how far apart the two venues are.

The 3 closest of 22 races. Open one, or all of them — every race is on the page either way.

  • nTexas SenateKen Paxton 51.5%▲1.4James Talarico 49.0%

    POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election

    Ken Paxton (R) faces James Talarico (D).

    A dead heat — the two sides are priced within three points of each other.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas Senate

    Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas Senate. Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 50.5%, Kalshi 52.5%; James Talarico (D): Polymarket 50.5%, Kalshi 47.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • rOhio SenateSherrod Brown 55.0%▲0.4Jon Husted 45.3%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election

    Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).

    A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio Senate

    Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 56.5%, Kalshi 53.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 43.5%, Kalshi 47.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • tGeorgia governorKeisha Lance Bottoms 56.8%Rick Jackson 43.5%▲2.9

    POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election

    Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).

    Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia governor

    Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 57.0%, Kalshi 56.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 43.5%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

The other 19 races22 races · 12 still in doubt · Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT · markets, not polling

Senate8 of 10

  • oAlaska SenateMary Peltola 64.5%▲0.3Dan Sullivan 36.0%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election

    Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).

    A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska Senate

    Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 63.5%, Kalshi 65.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 36.5%, Kalshi 35.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • wGeorgia SenateJon Ossoff 93.20%Collins 7.20%▲0.2

    POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election

    Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia Senate

    Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.6pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 93.5%, Kalshi 92.9%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 7.15%, Kalshi 7.25%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.6pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • pIowa SenateAshley Hinson 65.0%▲2.1Josh Turek 35.8%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election

    Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).

    An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa Senate

    Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 65.5%, Kalshi 64.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 35.0%, Kalshi 36.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • mMaine SenateTroy Jackson 69.5%Susan Collins 30.5%

    POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election

    Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).

    Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Maine Senate

    Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 70.5%, Kalshi 68.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 29.5%, Kalshi 31.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • qMichigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed 64.5%▲0.6Mike Rogers 35.3%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election

    Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan Senate

    Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 65.5%, Kalshi 63.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 34.0%, Kalshi 36.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • xNebraska SenatePete Ricketts 69.5%▲0.7Dan Osborn 30.5%

    POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election

    Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Nebraska Senate

    Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 68.5%, Kalshi 70.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 31.5%, Kalshi 29.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • yNew Hampshire SenateChris Pappas 82.5%18.0%▲1.2Sununu

    POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election

    Chris Pappas (D) leads the unresolved Democratic primary; John E. Sununu (R) leads the unresolved Republican primary.

    Neither nomination is official yet, though the market already treats both as decided.

    Two markets, one question

    New Hampshire Senate

    Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 82.5%, Kalshi 82.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 17.5%, Kalshi 18.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • vNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 91.4%8.8%Whatley

    POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election

    Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    North Carolina Senate

    Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 91.5%, Kalshi 91.3%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 8.5%, Kalshi 9.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Governors11 of 12

  • aaAlaska governorBernadette Wilson 31.50%67.7%Begich 0.78%▲1.3

    POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election

    Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).

    Wilson holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska governor

    Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 32.5%, Kalshi 30.5%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 1.35%, Kalshi 0.20%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • acArizona governorKatie Hobbs 86.5%13.5%Biggs

    POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election

    Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Arizona governor

    Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 86.5%, Kalshi 86.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 13.5%, Kalshi 13.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • agFlorida governorByron Donalds 81.5%▲0.7Jolly 18.8%

    POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election

    Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).

    Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Florida governor

    Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 81.5%, Kalshi 81.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 19.0%, Kalshi 18.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • zIowa governorRob Sand 75.5%▲0.5Zach Lahn 25.0%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election

    Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa governor

    Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 74.5%, Kalshi 76.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 25.5%, Kalshi 24.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • abMichigan governorJocelyn Benson 89.5%11.3%James

    POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election

    Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan governor

    Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 90%, Kalshi 89%; John James (R): Polymarket 11.0%, Kalshi 11.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • uNevada governorJoe Lombardo 59.8%▲3.0Aaron Ford 41.0%

    POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election

    Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).

    Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Republican side holds a clear lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Nevada governor

    Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 59.0%, Kalshi 60.5%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 40.5%, Kalshi 41.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aeNew York governorKathy Hochul 93.83%Blakeman 6.25%

    POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election

    Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    New York governor

    Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 94.50%, Kalshi 93.15%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 5.0%, Kalshi 7.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • lOhio governorAmy Acton 57.0%▲1.1Vivek Ramaswamy 44.0%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election

    Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).

    Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio governor

    Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 55.5%, Kalshi 58.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 43.5%, Kalshi 44.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • afPennsylvania governorJosh Shapiro 97.13%▲1.0Garrity 2.70%

    POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election

    Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Pennsylvania governor

    Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.1pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 97.05%, Kalshi 97.20%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.15%, Kalshi 3.25%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.1pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • adTexas governorGreg Abbott 82.3%17.8%▲0.2Hinojosa

    POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election

    Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas governor

    Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 82.1%, Kalshi 82.5%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 18.0%, Kalshi 17.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • sWisconsin governorDavid Crowley 81.3%19.0%▲0.3Tiffany

    POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election

    David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).

    An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Wisconsin governor

    Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 83.0%, Kalshi 79.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 17.5%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Sep 7, 10:01 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.

Not news news2 stories

WSJ

Trump wants Greenland. The EU showed up in Nuuk with €200 million and a promise to more than double it.

Ursula von der Leyen made the pledge on Monday, Sept. 7, while 11 NATO countries — not the United States — ran military exercises on the island.

Why this is happening. Trump has spent the year pressing for U.S. control of Greenland, a self-governing Danish territory of about 57,000 people. Europe's answer is money and presence rather than a confrontation. Von der Leyen never named him.

"Greenland's future is for the people of Greenland and Denmark to decide. No one else."Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission President

The package. €200 million ($232 million) across 2026-27, covering climate work, internet connectivity, hydropower, fisheries, education, housing and small business. That is near €3,500 for every person on the island.

The bigger number. She said EU budget support should reach about €500 million from 2028. ([TS]that is a seven-year pot — €530 million for 2028-34 against €225 million for 2021-27, per the EU's own figures.)

The other signal. Arctic Shield runs Sept. 7-18 and puts about 400 troops from Canada, Denmark and Finland on the island. Eleven NATO countries are taking part. The United States is not one of them.

What is not in it. Nothing reported in the package blocks a future U.S. minerals or basing deal, and the White House has not responded.

PBS NEWSHOURRussia-Ukraine war

Russia orders Germany's last consulate in Russia closed by Sept. 18, leaving one embassy each

Moscow also gave Goethe-Institut cultural centers in Moscow and St. Petersburg until Sunday, Sept. 13, to shut, days after Berlin closed Russia's Bonn consulate and the Russia House center.

The order. Russia ordered on Monday, Sept. 7, that Germany's consulate general in St. Petersburg close by Friday, Sept. 18, and told the German government's Goethe-Institut cultural centers in Moscow and St. Petersburg to shut by Sunday, Sept. 13.

The trigger. It answers what Berlin did on Wednesday, Sept. 2, when Germany closed Russia's consulate in Bonn and the Russia House cultural center in Berlin. Both moves trace to Tuesday, Aug. 4, when an explosive-laden drone hit a parked cargo plane at Leipzig/Halle Airport. Germany blamed Russian state entities; Moscow denies any part in it. ([TS]Germany's Interior Minister said Sept. 1 that DNA and intelligence tie the operators to Russian state entities.)

What is left. St. Petersburg was Germany's last consulate general in Russia, and Bonn was Russia's last in Germany. After Sept. 18 each country has exactly one mission left in the other: an embassy in the capital.

"It was the German authorities who once again provoked a new round of escalation in bilateral relations. All responsibility for the consequences lies entirely with the German government."Russian Foreign Ministry statement

What next. German officials have not said how many staff leave St. Petersburg, and no NATO or EU statement has addressed the closures themselves.

What losing every consulate does to ordinary travelersRussians living in Germany must now use the Berlin embassy for passports, visas and civil documents.3 details
  • Roughly 60 Russian diplomats, including Consul General Oleg Krasnitsky, were ordered out of Bonn; counts including families run to about 70.
3 stories that didn't make the cutSeen by the desk, ranked, and not run. The number is where each stood in the day's order.
  • 43[UPDATE] Brown University tracker puts the Iran war's added US energy cost at $100 billion, with gas at a record $4.14 and diesel at $5.85-$5.90
  • 47Palestinian parents fear for children amid rising West Bank settler attacksRising settler attacks on West Bank children is the ground-level story under the UK settlement-goods ban; cut because the item is a headline with no reporting attached.
  • 51Speculation Schumer won't seek re-election in 2028Schumer's 2028 plans matter given the Deluzio-Fetterman succession item already running; cut because it is unsourced speculation on social media.

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