Kavanaugh leaves Missouri's 6-2 map in place; hours later a federal judge orders the state to run the 7-1 map

Judge Stephen Clark's order landed at 4:58 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 8 — seven minutes before Missouri's ballot-change cutoff — and runs 14 days, to about Sept. 22.

- Sept. 6 — Missouri asked the U.S. Supreme Court to reinstate the 7-1 map, with Kavanaugh giving opponents until Monday, Sept. 7 to respond. - August — Missouri held its primary under the new HB 1 lines, which reassigned voters in 28 counties. - Summer 2026 — The Missouri Supreme Court held the map never took effect and ordered the 2022 lines used in November. - Dec. 2025 — Referendum organizers filed signatures against the new map, automatically suspending it under state law. - A challenge to congressional district lines normally goes before a three-judge panel; Clark sat alone.

ContextHB 1 is the congressional map Missouri Republicans passed to redraw the state's eight US House districts, and it would move the delegation from 6-2 Republican to 7-1 by reshaping a Kansas City-area seat. The Missouri Supreme Court ordered officials to use the older 2022 map instead. On the emergency docket a single justice handles applications from a given region, which is why Kavanaugh alone could deny Missouri's request on Tuesday, Sept. 8 without the other eight justices voting. That left the state Supreme Court's 6-2 map standing until US District Judge Stephen Clark ordered the opposite the same day. Election officials must finalize ballots by Sept. 19, and the election is Nov. 3 — under two months out, with the map still unsettled.

CBS NEWS10 sources

State Department has held a 16-year-old green-card holder and his parents for five months over his grandmother's 1979 hostage role

The family offered to pay their own way out to Türkiye; DHS refused and countered with a removal order plus continued detention.

No signed Rubio memo in this case has surfaced, and court filings allege no act, statement or belief by Maryam herself

ContextThe clause sat nearly unused for 35 years. Its only precedent was a 1996 case against a former Mexican deputy attorney general charged over his own conduct, where a federal judge struck the provision as unconstitutionally vague before an appeals court vacated on a technicality. It was revived in 2025 against two students, Mahmoud Khalil and Rümeysa Öztürk. In June 2025 a federal judge ruled Khalil would likely win his claim that the ground was unconstitutional as applied to him, and blocked his removal after 104 days in detention; the Tahmasebi family has now been held about five months, since April 2026. An immigration judge ended Öztürk's case in January 2026 and was fired that April. No merits ruling has ever upheld the ground. The obvious question is whether the family did anything themselves: court filings allege no act, statement or belief by any of the three, and the government's stated reason is the conduct of Eissa's mother in 1979, 47 years before the detention began.

THE BULWARK3 sources

3not newslongform

FBI, NSA and CISA name 6 Chinese AI firms as copying US models since 2024, with no penalty attached

The advisory's three "immediate actions" are addressed to American companies — verify subscribers, degrade suspected copying queries, share detection data — and Trump meets Xi on Sept. 24.

Two of the six were already blacklisted before this alert: Zhipu AI, parent of Z.AI, went on the Commerce Entity List in January 2025, in a batch of 25 Chinese companies — the first Chinese large-model firm named. Alibaba went on the Pentagon's Section 1260H list of Chinese military companies on June 8, 2026, in a batch of 65 that took the list to 188 names; from June 30, 2026 the Department of War cannot sign or renew contracts with it, a purchasing ban rather than a trade ban. DeepSeek was left out of that June 2026 batch. Prediction market Polymarket puts it at 29.5% to be added by June 30, 2027.

ContextDistillation is contested, not settled law. OpenAI's move in February 2026 was an open letter to legislators alleging "new, obfuscated methods" — a lobbying push for export controls, not a lawsuit. Three bodies could act: Commerce, through the Entity List; the Department of War, at its next 1260H update; and the Justice Department, through an espionage or computer-fraud indictment. None has announced anything on these six. The trade at stake is large. Total U.S.-China trade ran $582.50 billion in 2024 (U.S. Census Bureau Foreign Trade Division), with top imports from China in electrical machinery and equipment (29.8%), machinery including computers (26.8%), and furniture, bedding, and toys (15.3%), per Census/BEA end-use estimates.

NBC NEWS3 sources

4not newslongform

US 15-year-olds scored 490 in PISA reading, down 14 points from 2022, the first drop in five testing cycles

The share of American teens below the OECD's functional-literacy floor is now 26%, up seven points since 2015.

What the widening US spread and the data flags show: Gap between US students at the 90th and 10th percentiles in reading, widening since 2015: 50 points — the largest spread of any country tested US students reaching the top reading level (Level 5 or above): 13%, against an OECD average of 6% US test-takers who skipped the background questionnaire, blocking any race or income breakdown: more than 40%

ContextPISA has tested 15-year-olds every three years since 2000. The OECD treats 20 points as roughly one school year. US math scored 483 in 2003, 478 in 2018, 465 in 2022, and 463 this cycle — a full year of math learning lost before the pandemic ended and never recovered. A Walton Family Foundation/Gallup survey released the same week, in early September 2026, found 32% of Americans satisfied with the quality of K-12 education.

CHALKBEAT3 sources

Wednesday · The daily brief

Sep 92026

4 leads37 briefs18 min

Executive summary4 stories

News news1

  1. Kavanaugh leaves Missouri's 6-2 map in place; hours later a federal judge orders the state to run the 7-1 mapJudge Stephen Clark's order landed at 4:58 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 8 — seven minutes before Missouri's ballot-change cutoff — and runs 14 days, to about Sept. 22.

Not news news3

  1. State Department has held a 16-year-old green-card holder and his parents for five months over his grandmother's 1979 hostage roleThe family offered to pay their own way out to Türkiye; DHS refused and countered with a removal order plus continued detention.
  2. FBI, NSA and CISA name 6 Chinese AI firms as copying US models since 2024, with no penalty attachedThe advisory's three "immediate actions" are addressed to American companies — verify subscribers, degrade suspected copying queries, share detection data — and Trump meets Xi on Sept. 24.
  3. US 15-year-olds scored 490 in PISA reading, down 14 points from 2022, the first drop in five testing cyclesThe share of American teens below the OECD's functional-literacy floor is now 26%, up seven points since 2015.

News news1 story

Ongoing3 earlier updates14 days

This story has run 4 times over 14 days, starting Aug 26.

  1. USPS violated a court order to finalize Trump’s mail-ballot rule; judge allows publication
  2. Judge clears Trump’s USPS mail-ballot rule; 24 states and D.C. sue hours later
  3. UpdateMissouri asks the Supreme Court to reinstate its 7-1 congressional map three days before the ballot deadline
  4. Kavanaugh leaves Missouri's 6-2 map in place; hours later a federal judge orders the state to run the 7-1 map — this issue
CBS NEWSCourts and the administration

Kavanaugh leaves Missouri's 6-2 map in place; hours later a federal judge orders the state to run the 7-1 map

Judge Stephen Clark's order landed at 4:58 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 8 — seven minutes before Missouri's ballot-change cutoff — and runs 14 days, to about Sept. 22.

The denial. Justice Brett Kavanaugh on Tuesday, Sept. 8, denied Missouri Republicans' emergency request to revive a new congressional map that would flip a Kansas City-area seat. He wrote one sentence, gave no reasoning, and did not refer the case to the full Court — leaving the Missouri Supreme Court's order to use the old 2022 map, which splits the delegation 6-2 Republican, intact. The new map, HB 1, would make it 7-1.

The countermand. Hours later, U.S. District Judge Stephen Clark ordered the opposite: a temporary restraining order requiring Missouri to keep using HB 1 for the Nov. 3 election.

The reaction. Trump called the state court ruling "horrible, ridiculous, and unConstitutional." CBS News described the result as "a federal-election-administration disaster," and The Hill wrote that "widespread voter confusion would inevitably follow." ([TS]Boone and Polk county clerks told the state court the voter file already carries both maps: "just pick which one.")

What next. Missouri election officials must finalize ballots by Sept. 19, eleven days after the dueling rulings and six and a half weeks before the election.

Catch upwhat happened before · 3 earlier issues
  • Sept. 6 — Missouri asked the U.S. Supreme Court to reinstate the 7-1 map, with Kavanaugh giving opponents until Monday, Sept. 7 to respond.
  • August — Missouri held its primary under the new HB 1 lines, which reassigned voters in 28 counties.
  • Summer 2026 — The Missouri Supreme Court held the map never took effect and ordered the 2022 lines used in November.
  • Dec. 2025 — Referendum organizers filed signatures against the new map, automatically suspending it under state law.
  • A challenge to congressional district lines normally goes before a three-judge panel; Clark sat alone.

Related reading

The referendum that suspended HB 1 in December 2025 is certified to the Nov. 3 ballot as Proposition A, so whichever map prints this fall, voters decide whether HB 1 survives the rest of the decade.

Quick bites15

Iran and the Gulf2 bites
  1. Houthi missiles and drones hit 4 Saudi cities, wounding 73 and halting Aramco's 400,000-barrel-a-day Jazan refinery

    FOX NEWSIran war

    Dozens of missiles and drones hit four Saudi cities Tuesday, wounding 73 people, Fox News reported. The strikes on Jazan, Najran, Abha and Khamis Mushait briefly halted work at Aramco sites. The Saudi-led coalition blamed Houthi forces and vowed to strike back at what it called "a dangerous escalation."

    • 73 people wounded across the four cities; severity not reported
    • Jazan refinery processes about 400,000 barrels of crude a day
    • No group had claimed the attack as of Tuesday
  2. Iran says it seized a US sea drone in Hormuz; CENTCOM says it malfunctioned a day earlier

    REUTERSIran war

    The Revolutionary Guard called it one of the most modern smart submarines in the American arsenal, while US Central Command said the defective older model carried no classified sonar, radar or sensitive data.

    About that photo:

    • Iranian state TV illustrated the capture with a photo that has circulated online since 2024 and shows a location in San Diego.
    Ongoing17

    This story has run 18 times over 48 days, starting Jul 23.

    1. Trump Threatens to Bomb Iranian Bridges and Power Plants for Every Ship Hit in Strait of Hormuz
    2. Iran fires multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. base in Jordan; all are intercepted
    3. Iran denies Trump’s claim that new U.S. talks would start Monday
    4. Cargo ship is struck in the Strait of Hormuz
    5. Vance says the Iran talks are moving, then calls the war only half over
    6. Iran won't reopen Hormuz until the US unfreezes its assets and lifts the blockade
    7. Trump threatens to bomb Oman, the U.S. ally brokering the deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
    8. Trump declares an "economic D-Day" on Iran as Hormuz traffic runs 85% below normal
    9. UpdateU.S. goes nearly a month without large Iran strikes as Trump shifts back to sanctions; Hormuz remains closed
    10. U.S. destroys two Iranian rocket launchers loaded to mine the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at bases in Jordan, all intercepted
    11. UpdateU.S. bombs two Iranian rocket sites near the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at Jordan
    12. UpdateU.S. forces struck IRGC air-defense, radar, maritime and mine-laying sites on Iran's southern coast starting at noon on Sept. 1
    13. UpdateU.S. hits about 100 Iranian targets; Iran fires back at American bases in four countries, and a cruise missile kills 4 at a wedding
    14. Reuters weapons experts say a US munition made a direct hit on the Iranian wedding house that killed 5
    15. US destroys or disables 3 Iranian oil tankers after Iran fired ballistic missiles at a US carrier and destroyer
    16. UpdateIran says it hit an unmanned US vessel a day after the tanker strikes; Central Command calls the claim "a total lie"
    17. UpdateIran says it will declare a restricted zone near the Strait of Hormuz and will strike threats "even before" they are carried out
    18. Iran says it seized a US sea drone in Hormuz; CENTCOM says it malfunctioned a day earlier — this issue
The 9/11 anniversary4 bites
  1. Mamdani posts 170,000 pages of post-9/11 air records, says the city lied about safe air

    TIME

    The portal settles a lawsuit by 9/11 Health Watch. It draws partly on 68 boxes of Department of Environmental Protection records found in a city office in 2025, after earlier records requests had missed them.

    The numbers170,000 pages went live Tuesday on a new public portal.3 details
    • 170,000 pages went live Tuesday on a new public portal.
    • October 2001 Harding memo warned of mass toxic-exposure claims — BBC and Washington Examiner put it at 35,000, TIME at 10,000.
    • More people have died of 9/11-related illnesses than were killed in the attacks.
  2. Trump says firefighters carried him out of a shaking building at Ground Zero; he was at Trump Tower that day

    PBS NEWSHOUR

    Trump said he sent a crew of construction workers to Ground Zero and that One Liberty Plaza still creaks. The building reopened undamaged in under two months. Asked for proof, the White House gave none and attacked the coverage.

    • Trump was at Trump Tower, miles from the World Trade Center, when the towers were hit
    • One Liberty Plaza reopened with no structural damage in less than two months
  3. Trump posthumously awards the Medal of Freedom to Welles Crowther, who saved up to 18 people on 9/11

    PBS NEWSHOUR

    The White House Ellipse tribute Tuesday displayed a 21-foot, roughly 17,000-pound steel beam from the World Trade Center's South Tower, where Crowther died.

    Also at the eventCrowther, known as the man in the red bandanna, guided survivors down from the South Tower before it collapsed.2 details
    • Crowther, known as the man in the red bandanna, guided survivors down from the South Tower before it collapsed.
    • Trump also announced a new Coast Guard cutter named for Jeffrey Palazzo, an NYC firefighter and Coast Guard reservist killed in the attacks.
  4. Mamdani will attend Friday's 9/11 ceremony despite a 101,000-signature petition asking him not to

    THE HILL

    Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani, 9/11 families and first responders gathered at City Hall to demand Mamdani skip the event. They cited a petition with 101,000 signatures per Fox News and nearly 100,000 per ABC News. Neither outlet says who organized it or where the signers live. Gov. Kathy Hochul (Gov-D New York) said Mamdani should be there.

The war in Ukraine2 bites
  1. Russia resumed strikes on Kyiv after the truce, killing 7; Trump and Putin then talked for an hour

    PBS NEWSHOURUpdateRussia-Ukraine war
  2. Ukraine is buying about 1,000 Patriot interceptors with an EU loan, but most arrive years from now

    REUTERSRussia-Ukraine war

    Because the contracted missiles are years out, Kyiv asked partners for interceptors from existing stockpiles now, and Germany agreed to ship PAC-2 interceptors from its own stocks immediately.

    The numbersUkraine still reports a defense budget shortfall this year2 details
    • Ukraine still reports a defense budget shortfall this year
    • Germany's transfer is PAC-2 interceptors, pulled from current Bundeswehr stocks
Also tonight4 bites
  1. Smithsonian secretary Lonnie Bunch will retire by year's end, 11 days after Interior threatened its funding

    THE ATLANTIC

    Bunch, the Smithsonian's first Black leader and its secretary since 2019, is leaving after 38 years at the institution, following an Aug. 28 Interior Department letter that threatened to cut federal support over what it called ideological activism.

    • 38 years at the Smithsonian, 7 of them as secretary
    • Founding director of the National Museum of African American History and Culture
    • Aug. 28, 2026: Interior letter threatens the institution's federal money
  2. Book says UAE's bin Zayed warned Netanyahu of a coming Hamas attack 10 days before Oct. 7

    THE NEW YORKERGaza and Hamas

    UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and talked for 45 minutes. He warned that Yahya Sinwar was planning something big. Israeli reporters Shlomi Eldar and Ruth Yuval report the call. Netanyahu's office calls that account "an absolute lie." The UAE foreign ministry did not deny the call. It said only that the two countries share intelligence when needed.

    What the reporting rests onAuthors cite three independent sources plus a recording and documents of the call.3 details
    • Authors cite three independent sources plus a recording and documents of the call.
    • Netanyahu's office: he "did not speak with the president of the United Arab Emirates during the relevant period."
    • No second outlet has independently confirmed the call.
  3. Trump orders Canadian goods stripped from $50 billion in federal contract schedules

    REUTERS

    Trump on Tuesday ordered the General Services Administration to drop Canadian-made goods from its main buying lists. He gave the US Trade Representative the same order. Those lists buy more than $50 billion a year. The goods stay out until Canada gives US firms "full and fair reciprocity." Canada's retaliatory tariffs began the same day.

    • Announced on Truth Social: "From now on, NO RECIPROCITY, NO ACCESS!"
    • Comes a day after Trump threatened to ban Bombardier jet sales in the US
    Ongoing8
  4. Trump administration asks Supreme Court to unblock the SAVE database for checking voter rolls

    WASHINGTON POSTCourts and the adminis…

    The Trump administration asked the Supreme Court for emergency permission to let states use its expanded SAVE database to check voter rolls. The system, which verifies immigration status, now includes Social Security records. A district court blocked the expansion in June, and an appeals court upheld that block last week. Solicitor General D. John Sauer called the order "indefensible" and a threat to "the integrity of upcoming elections."

    Ongoing1

    This story has run 2 times over 8 days, starting Sep 1.

    1. Trump administration asks Supreme Court to discharge 29 transgender troops before their January 2027 trial
    2. Trump administration asks Supreme Court to unblock the SAVE database for checking voter rolls — this issue
Elections3 bites
  1. Pappas leads NH Senate primary 62%-36%; Sununu leads GOP side 70%-25%

    NBC NEWS2026 midterms

    Chris Pappas (Rep-D New Hampshire) led democratic-socialist Karishma Manzur 62%-36% with about a fifth of the vote counted, and Trump-endorsed former John Sununu (Sen-R New Hampshire) led former Sen. Scott Brown 70%-25% with about a sixth counted. The winners will run for the seat retiring Jeanne Shaheen (Sen-D New Hampshire) is leaving.

    • Pappas led 62%-36% with about a fifth of the vote counted.
    • Sununu led 70%-25% with about a sixth counted.
    • Neither race had been called at the time of these counts.
  2. Trump says German immigration rules drove the AfD's Saxony-Anhalt win

    REUTERSUpdateImmigration enforcement

    Trump credited Germany's immigration rules for the far-right AfD's win in the Saxony-Anhalt state election, days after the vote. Reuters reported no German government response to the claim.

    Sept. 6 — The AfD was projected to finish first in the Saxony-Anhalt state election.

  3. Ayotte and Warmington win their primaries, setting the New Hampshire governor's race

    NBC NEWS

    Gov. Kelly Ayotte (Gov-R New Hampshire) cleared her Republican primary Tuesday and will face Democrat Cinde Warmington (D-NH), who ran unopposed, in a November race Cook rates lean Republican.

    • New Hampshire and Vermont are the only two states where a Republican governor is seeking reelection in a state Harris won in 2024.
    • Ayotte has outraised Warmington and leads in public polling.

Elections22 races

The midterms · 55 days out · November 3, 2026

D or R take the House / Senate?

Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT
today · 7-day panel

U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 87%, Kalshi 85%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 53%, Kalshi 48%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

U.S. HouseDemocrats take it, 84.5–86.5%
87%85%chance Democrats take it · 2.0pp apart · both venues down this week
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 87% and Kalshi 85%.
U.S. SenateDemocrats take it, 47.5–52.5%
53%48%chance Democrats take it · 5.0pp apart · no clear move — the venues went opposite ways
U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 53% and Kalshi 48%.

No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only

How to read thisthe contract, the key, and the week panel

Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.

  • two venues, priced separately
  • shaded = how far apart they are
  • 50% — control flips here
  • where it stood 7 days ago
  • the last 7 days, on its own scale
  • week panel: one line a party

The week panel draws one line per party, crossing where control does. Only the Democratic line is a traded price: the Republicanline is its arithmetic complement, the same mirror the bar’s other half is, and not a second market agreeing with the first. The shading around each line is how far apart the two venues are.

The 3 closest of 22 races. Open one, or all of them — every race is on the page either way.

  • rTexas SenateKen Paxton 51.5%▲1.2James Talarico 49.0%

    POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election

    Ken Paxton (R) faces James Talarico (D).

    A dead heat — the two sides are priced within three points of each other.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas Senate

    Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas Senate. Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 50.5%, Kalshi 52.5%; James Talarico (D): Polymarket 50.5%, Kalshi 47.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • vOhio SenateSherrod Brown 55.0%▲0.5Jon Husted 45.0%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election

    Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).

    A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio Senate

    Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 56.5%, Kalshi 53.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 43.5%, Kalshi 46.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • pOhio governorAmy Acton 55.5%Vivek Ramaswamy 45.0%▲1.1

    POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election

    Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).

    Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio governor

    Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 55.5%, Kalshi 55.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 43.5%, Kalshi 46.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

The other 19 races22 races · 12 still in doubt · Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT · markets, not polling

Senate8 of 10

  • sAlaska SenateMary Peltola 64.5%Dan Sullivan 36.8%▲1.2

    POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election

    Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).

    A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska Senate

    Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 63.5%, Kalshi 65.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 37.5%, Kalshi 36.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • aaGeorgia SenateJon Ossoff 93.1%Collins 7.0%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election

    Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia Senate

    Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.8pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 93.5%, Kalshi 92.7%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 6.8%, Kalshi 7.3%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.8pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • tIowa SenateAshley Hinson 65.5%▲2.7Josh Turek 35.5%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election

    Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).

    An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa Senate

    Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 65.5%, Kalshi 65.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 34.5%, Kalshi 36.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • qMaine SenateTroy Jackson 70.0%▲0.2Susan Collins 30.0%

    POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election

    Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).

    Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.

    Two markets, one question

    Maine Senate

    Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT
    widest venue gap 5.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 72.5%, Kalshi 67.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 28.5%, Kalshi 31.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 5.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • uMichigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed 64.5%▲0.8Mike Rogers 35.5%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election

    Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan Senate

    Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 65.5%, Kalshi 63.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 34.5%, Kalshi 36.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • abNebraska SenatePete Ricketts 71.0%▲1.8Dan Osborn 28.8%

    POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election

    Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.

    Two markets, one question

    Nebraska Senate

    Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT
    widest venue gap 5.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 68.5%, Kalshi 73.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 31.5%, Kalshi 26.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 5.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • acNew Hampshire SenateChris Pappas 82.0%18.5%▲0.8Sununu

    POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election

    Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    New Hampshire Senate

    Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 81.5%, Kalshi 82.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 18.5%, Kalshi 18.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • zNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 91.33%8.97%Whatley

    POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election

    Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    North Carolina Senate

    Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.9pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 91.50%, Kalshi 91.15%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 8.50%, Kalshi 9.45%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.9pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Governors11 of 12

  • aeAlaska governorWilson 29.50%69.7%Begich 0.78%▲2.3

    POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election

    Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).

    Wilson holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska governor

    Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 28.5%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 1.35%, Kalshi 0.20%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • agArizona governorKatie Hobbs 86.5%13.8%Biggs▲0.6

    POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election

    Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Arizona governor

    Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 86.5%, Kalshi 86.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 13.5%, Kalshi 14.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • akFlorida governorByron Donalds 81.5%▲0.2Jolly 18.0%

    POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election

    Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).

    Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Florida governor

    Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 81.5%, Kalshi 81.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 18.5%, Kalshi 17.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • xGeorgia governorKeisha Lance Bottoms 56.3%Rick Jackson 43.3%▲2.5

    POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election

    Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).

    Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia governor

    Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 56.0%, Kalshi 56.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 43.0%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • adIowa governorRob Sand 75.8%▲1.0Zach Lahn 23.8%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election

    Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa governor

    Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 75.0%, Kalshi 76.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 24.0%, Kalshi 23.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • afMichigan governorJocelyn Benson 90.75%▲1.49.53%James

    POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election

    Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan governor

    Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 92.5%, Kalshi 89.0%; John James (R): Polymarket 8.50%, Kalshi 10.55%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • yNevada governorJoe Lombardo 60.0%▲1.9Aaron Ford 40.5%

    POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election

    Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).

    Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Republican side holds a clear lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Nevada governor

    Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 59.5%, Kalshi 60.5%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 40.5%, Kalshi 40.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aiNew York governorKathy Hochul 92.83%Blakeman 6.63%▲1.0

    POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election

    Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    New York governor

    Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT
    widest venue gap 4.3pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 93.50%, Kalshi 92.15%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 4.50%, Kalshi 8.75%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.3pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • ajPennsylvania governorJosh Shapiro 97.00%▲0.2Garrity 2.60%

    POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election

    Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Pennsylvania governor

    Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 96.85%, Kalshi 97.15%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 1.85%, Kalshi 3.35%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • ahTexas governorGreg Abbott 82.8%▲0.417.8%Hinojosa

    POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election

    Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas governor

    Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.4pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 82.1%, Kalshi 83.5%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 18.0%, Kalshi 17.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.4pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • wWisconsin governorDavid Crowley 82.0%▲0.9Tiffany 19.0%

    POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election

    David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).

    An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Wisconsin governor

    Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 83.5%, Kalshi 80.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 17.5%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Sep 8, 9:30 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.

Not news news3 stories

THE BULWARKCourts and the administration

State Department has held a 16-year-old green-card holder and his parents for five months over his grandmother's 1979 hostage role

The family offered to pay their own way out to Türkiye; DHS refused and countered with a removal order plus continued detention.

The detention. Maryam Tahmasebi, her husband Eissa Seyed Hashemi and their teenage son — all lawful permanent residents of California — have been in immigration detention since April 2026, roughly five months as of Monday, Sept. 8, 2026. ([TS]ICE's average detention stay is 52 days in FY2026; this is about 150) None of the three has a criminal record or an immigration violation. Maryam had a citizenship application pending.

The charge. The government charged them under a 1990 clause of the Immigration and Nationality Act that lets the Secretary of State declare a noncitizen deportable when their presence would cause serious adverse foreign policy consequences. The reason given is Eissa's mother, Masoumeh Ebtekar, who was the spokesperson for the students who seized the U.S. embassy in Tehran in 1979 — decades before Eissa or his son were born. Marco Rubio, who as Secretary of State signs these determinations, posted his rationale publicly: "America can never become home for anti-American terrorists or their families."

The conditions. Maryam and her son are held at the Dilley facility in Texas; Eissa is in a separate facility about twenty minutes away, seeing them for a few minutes every couple of weeks, with medical treatment delayed.

"Our detention from day one was indefinite. Like a life prison sentence for a crime you didn't commit."Maryam Tahmasebi

Still open. A federal judge has temporarily barred their removal while habeas petitions proceed; two immigration judges are hearing the family's cases separately, and no merits ruling has come.

  • No signed Rubio memo in this case has surfaced, and court filings allege no act, statement or belief by Maryam herself

Related reading

Judge Michael Farbiarz ruled in June 2025 that Khalil would likely win his claim that the foreign-policy removal ground was unconstitutional as applied to him, and blocked his removal or detention on that basis. Khalil had spent 104 days in detention; the judge left the government free to pursue unrelated grounds, such as omissions in his green-card application.

NBC NEWS

FBI, NSA and CISA name 6 Chinese AI firms as copying US models since 2024, with no penalty attached

The advisory's three "immediate actions" are addressed to American companies — verify subscribers, degrade suspected copying queries, share detection data — and Trump meets Xi on Sept. 24.

The alert. Three U.S. security agencies — the FBI, the National Security Agency and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency — issued a joint alert on Tuesday, Sept. 8. It accuses six Chinese AI companies of copying American AI models since 2024: DeepSeek, Moonshot AI, Alibaba, MiniMax, StepFun and Z.AI. The agencies said the effort likely ran with Chinese government awareness. They did not allege that Chinese intelligence services ran it.

The method. The technical term is "distilling." It means querying a rival's finished model over and over and training your own on its answers, so you buy the output instead of the years of research behind it.

The Google report. Separately on the same day, Google reported that a Chinese state-linked group it has tracked since 2023 is installing open-source AI models on hijacked third-party cloud networks — a way to query AI without leaving a trail at a commercial provider — while hitting North American academic, medical and military research targets. ([TS]Google's own report says it has not seen a fully automated hacking campaign yet)

Where it stands. The advisory, AA26-251A, carries no sanction, no Entity List designation (the Commerce Department's trade blacklist, which blocks U.S. exports to a named firm), no export rule, no prosecution referral and no deadline. Neither OpenAI nor Anthropic has sued any of the six, so no court has tested the copying claim.

Two of the six were already blacklisted before this alertZhipu AI, parent of Z.AI, went on the Commerce Entity List in January 2025, in a batch of 25 Chinese companies — the first Chinese…3 details
  • Zhipu AI, parent of Z.AI, went on the Commerce Entity List in January 2025, in a batch of 25 Chinese companies — the first Chinese large-model firm named.
  • Alibaba went on the Pentagon's Section 1260H list of Chinese military companies on June 8, 2026, in a batch of 65 that took the list to 188 names; from June 30, 2026 the Department of War cannot sign or renew contracts with it, a purchasing ban rather than a trade ban.
  • DeepSeek was left out of that June 2026 batch. Prediction market Polymarket puts it at 29.5% to be added by June 30, 2027.
CHALKBEAT

US 15-year-olds scored 490 in PISA reading, down 14 points from 2022, the first drop in five testing cycles

The share of American teens below the OECD's functional-literacy floor is now 26%, up seven points since 2015.

The drop. American 15-year-olds scored 490 in reading on the 2025 PISA exam (the international test given to 15-year-olds every three years since 2000). That is 14 points below their 2022 result and 15 below 2018 — the first real break in a quarter-century of flat US reading.

The other subjects. Math and science did not move enough to count as a change.

The ranking. The US still sits above the average of OECD countries in reading and science, and its rank rose to 13th in both. That is because scores elsewhere fell faster. Across the OECD, reading is down 28 points and math 22 over the past decade.

The three subject scores, US against the OECD average:

Reading
490 vs. 461
Science
490 vs. 461
Math
463 vs. 463

Still open. The OECD flagged the US sample for incomplete school response rates, meaning bias in the American results cannot be ruled out. It applied that caution to only one other country, Albania.

What the widening US spread and the data flags showGap between US students at the 90th and 10th percentiles in reading, widening since 2015: 50 points — the largest spread of any…3 details
  • Gap between US students at the 90th and 10th percentiles in reading, widening since 2015: 50 points — the largest spread of any country tested
  • US students reaching the top reading level (Level 5 or above): 13%, against an OECD average of 6%
  • US test-takers who skipped the background questionnaire, blocking any race or income breakdown: more than 40%
8 stories that didn't make the cutSeen by the desk, ranked, and not run. The number is where each stood in the day's order.
  • 44[UPDATE] Trump orders a ban on Canadian autos, dairy, alcohol and motorcycles starting Sept. 29 after Canada's tariffs on $20 billion of U.S. goods took effectCanada's retaliatory tariffs on about $20 billion of US goods took effect Tuesday; Trump moved to ban Canadian autos, dairy, alcohol and motorcycles from Sept.
  • 45US sanctions Iran's aviation sector to isolate TehranThe US sanctioned the remaining parts of Iran's aviation sector, the latest step in a pressure campaign to isolate Tehran.
  • 46Trump threatens to ban Canadian planemaker BombardierTrump threatened to block sales by Canadian planemaker Bombardier in the US despite the company's extensive American manufacturing footprint.
  • 47Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon strain US-backed ceasefireIsraeli strikes in southern Lebanon renewed fighting and strained the US-brokered ceasefire.
  • 52Courts uphold ruling barring IRS from sharing taxpayer data with ICEAn appeals court upheld a ruling barring the IRS from sharing taxpayer data with immigration enforcement.
  • 53Hungary orders 10 Russian diplomats to leave the countryHungary ordered 10 Russian diplomats to leave the country.
  • 54Georgia National Guard member charged with pointing gun at fellow soldier in DCA Georgia National Guard member was charged with pointing a gun at a fellow soldier in Washington during a dispute over hair regulations.
  • 55Suffolk poll shows Mamdani's job approval outperforming expectationsA Suffolk poll found Mayor Mamdani's job approval running higher than expected in New York City.

7 election items moved to the Elections page