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Ongoing1 earlier update
This story has run 2 times, starting Oct 13.
- Federal agents search Rep. Ilhan Omar's home in a criminal immigration-fraud probe, 22 days before her election
- UpdateFederal prosecutor Jeanine Pirro opens a review of Ilhan Omar's financial disclosures a day after agents searched her home; Trump says he takes 'no position' on deporting her — this issue
The disclosures under review valued husband Tim Mynett's two businesses at $15,000–$51,000 for 2023 and $6 million–$30 million for 2024. Omar has not been charged with anything.
Homeland Security Investigations agents (ICE's criminal-investigation arm) searched the Washington home of Ilhan Omar (Rep-D Minnesota) on Monday, Oct. 12, under a court-authorized warrant. The probe reportedly centers on immigration paperwork her late father filled out when she was a child. The search came 22 days before the Nov. 3 midterms.
The second probe. On Tuesday, Oct. 13, U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro said her office is also examining Omar's financial disclosures.
The White House. Trump called Omar "a terrible person" and "a terrible congresswoman" but said "I don't take a position" on deporting her and that the case is up to the Justice Department.
The Justice Department. It rejected the claim that its policy bars investigative steps within 60 days of an election. ([TS]True to the letter: there's no fixed blackout, but DOJ's manual bars timing any step to sway an election.)
Omar. She called the search "an attempt to target political enemies and weaponize federal law enforcement" and turned it into a fundraising appeal. Democrats say privately they expect more "October surprises."
Still open. Neither probe has produced a charge, and the reporting has not shown that the immigration case and the money review are connected.
Catch up
On Monday, Oct. 12, Homeland Security Investigations agents searched Omar's Washington home in a criminal immigration-fraud probe, 22 days before the Nov. 3 election. The case reportedly turns on papers her late father filled out when she was a child; she became a citizen in 2000, at 17.
BackgroundWhat DOJ's own rules require before searching a lawmaker's home
- The Public Integrity Section in Washington must approve any warrant covering a member of Congress's property.
- Prosecutors may never time a search, charge or statement to affect an election or a candidate.
- Even the appearance of election timing requires a consultation with the Public Integrity Section first.
Red take
Jeanine Pirro, the U.S. attorney, is right to make Ilhan Omar, the Minnesota Democrat, explain filings that value her husband's two businesses at $15,000–$51,000 for 2023 and $6 million–$30 million for 2024. Reading a form a congresswoman signed charges no one, and no fixed rule pauses it before a vote. Shelve it until after Nov. 3, and every incumbent learns her disclosures go unread while she is on a ballot.
Blue take
Announcing a money review of Ilhan Omar, the Minnesota Democrat, one day after agents searched her home and three weeks before the Nov. 3 midterms puts a charge in voters' heads that no prosecutor has filed. The Justice Department's own manual bars timing any step to sway an election, and her filings will read the same on Nov. 4. Waiting costs the case nothing; announcing now lets voters convict a candidate on suspicion alone.
Ongoing26 earlier updates49 days
This story has run 27 times over 49 days, starting Aug 26.
- CIA chief Ratcliffe makes rare Moscow visit
- CIA chief reportedly warned Moscow against a limited Russian attack on NATO
- CIA chief secretly met Russian intelligence officials in Moscow
- UpdateCIA chief told Moscow to end the Ukraine war before Russia’s military and economy worsen
- Russian drone hits ammunition depot near Kyiv, killing 38; four remain missing
- Russia's finance minister returned to the G20 in person for the first time since the Ukraine invasion
- Witkoff and Kushner meet Putin in Moscow Sept. 5, Zelensky in Kyiv Sept. 6, carrying a U.S. proposal to end the war
- UpdatePutin orders 72-hour halt to strikes on Kyiv while Witkoff and Kushner visit, after a three-hour Kremlin meeting
- UpdateWitkoff and Kushner hold first Kyiv talks of the war, agreeing on next steps but no terms; announcement promised in weeks
- UpdateWitkoff says Moscow-Kyiv trip produced 'substantive progress' on scheduling more talks, with no date set and no terms disclosed
- UpdateRussia resumed strikes on Kyiv after the truce, killing 7; Trump and Putin then talked for an hour
- UpdateTrump says Russia's president wants a Ukraine peace deal after their phone call
- House schedules vote next week on authorizing 100% tariffs on Russian oil buyers
- UpdateVladimir Putin warned that sending European troops into Ukraine means war with Russia.
- Trump announced a Russia-Ukraine energy truce Kyiv calls conditional
- UpdateThe House voted 214-211 to advance 100% tariffs on buyers of Russian oil
- UpdateCongress sends Trump a bill letting him impose 100% tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil
- UpdateTrump signs the bill authorizing 100% tariffs on buyers of Russian oil
- Trump and Zelensky agree to New York talks, expected Sept. 22
- UpdateZelensky asks Trump for a mutual halt on energy and port strikes
- Zelensky (President, Ukraine) urges countries to limit trade with Russia to cut war funding
- UpdatePutin added a sale of Lukoil's foreign oil assets to US-Russia Ukraine talks; the buyers include Witkoff and Kushner business partners
- UpdateTreasury lifts U.S. sanctions on Russian diesel until April 7, 2027, after Trump says Russia will send 4.8 million tons
- UpdateRussian glide bombs kill 20 in Zaporizhzhia a day after the U.S. suspended Russian diesel sanctions; Putin tells Trump talks won't resume soon
- UpdateFour Republican senators join Democrats in demanding Trump reverse his Russian diesel deal, saying he skipped steps the law requires
- UpdateTrump defends letting Russian diesel into the U.S. as analysts say the 300,000-ton first shipment is too small to lower prices
- Update12 senators, six from each party, ask Trump to rescind his deal lifting U.S. sanctions on Russian diesel — this issue
U.S. diesel futures rose 5% by midday Tuesday, Oct. 13, to their highest in weeks, as doubts mounted that the deal would bring prices down, per NBC News.
Twelve senators sent Donald Trump a letter on Tuesday, Oct. 13, demanding he rescind the deal that lifted U.S. sanctions on Russian diesel. They called it "a gift to our adversary and a betrayal of our Allies."
The signers. Richard Blumenthal (Sen-D Connecticut) led the letter. The six Republicans are Thom Tillis (Sen-R North Carolina), Susan Collins (Sen-R Maine), Lisa Murkowski (Sen-R Alaska), Mitch McConnell (Sen-R Kentucky), John Cornyn (Sen-R Texas) and Alan Armstrong (Sen-R Oklahoma).
The law. Tillis and Lloyd Doggett (Rep-D Texas) say the waiver breaks the 2022 Ending Importation of Russian Oil Act, the law that banned Russian oil imports after the invasion of Ukraine. Doggett sponsored it and says Trump is "directly violating that law."
Trump's answer. He now says: "It's not a deal with me. It's a deal for the world. That's not a USA deal." ([TS]Treasury's own license lets Russian diesel be imported into the U.S. until April 7, 2027.)
The supply. Trump promised 300,000 tons of Russian diesel at once and 500,000 tons in November. Analysts put the best case at less than two weeks of U.S. diesel demand.
Catch up
- Sept. 15 — Trump announced a Russia-Ukraine energy truce; Kyiv called it conditional.
- Sept. 16–19 — Congress passed and Trump signed a law allowing steep tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil; the House vote was 262-159.
- Sept. 21–23 — Trump pressed Ukraine to stop hitting Russian refineries, citing diesel prices; Zelensky proposed a mutual halt on energy strikes.
- Oct. 4 — Putin added a sale of Lukoil's foreign oil assets to peace talks; buyers include business partners of envoys Witkoff and Kushner.
- Oct. 10 — Treasury lifted sanctions on Russian diesel until April 7, 2027, after Trump said Russia would send diesel to the U.S.
- Oct. 11 — Russian glide bombs killed 20 in Zaporizhzhia; Putin told Trump talks would not resume soon.
- Oct. 12 — Four Republican senators joined Democrats demanding a reversal; Thomas Massie (Rep-R Kentucky) backed the deal. AAA put diesel at $6.27 a gallon, against $3.67 a year earlier.
- ClearView Energy's Kevin Book estimates 5 to 20 cents a gallon of pump relief by the end of 2026, per Bloomberg.
25 earlier issues
- CIA chief Ratcliffe makes rare Moscow visit
- CIA chief reportedly warned Moscow against a limited Russian attack on NATO
- CIA chief secretly met Russian intelligence officials in Moscow
- UpdateCIA chief told Moscow to end the Ukraine war before Russia’s military and economy worsen
- Russian drone hits ammunition depot near Kyiv, killing 38; four remain missing
- Russia's finance minister returned to the G20 in person for the first time since the Ukraine invasion
- Witkoff and Kushner meet Putin in Moscow Sept. 5, Zelensky in Kyiv Sept. 6, carrying a U.S. proposal to end the war
- UpdatePutin orders 72-hour halt to strikes on Kyiv while Witkoff and Kushner visit, after a three-hour Kremlin meeting
- UpdateWitkoff and Kushner hold first Kyiv talks of the war, agreeing on next steps but no terms; announcement promised in weeks
- UpdateWitkoff says Moscow-Kyiv trip produced 'substantive progress' on scheduling more talks, with no date set and no terms disclosed
- UpdateRussia resumed strikes on Kyiv after the truce, killing 7; Trump and Putin then talked for an hour
- UpdateTrump says Russia's president wants a Ukraine peace deal after their phone call
- House schedules vote next week on authorizing 100% tariffs on Russian oil buyers
- UpdateVladimir Putin warned that sending European troops into Ukraine means war with Russia.
- Trump announced a Russia-Ukraine energy truce Kyiv calls conditional
- UpdateThe House voted 214-211 to advance 100% tariffs on buyers of Russian oil
- UpdateCongress sends Trump a bill letting him impose 100% tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil
- UpdateTrump signs the bill authorizing 100% tariffs on buyers of Russian oil
- Trump and Zelensky agree to New York talks, expected Sept. 22
- UpdateZelensky asks Trump for a mutual halt on energy and port strikes
- Zelensky (President, Ukraine) urges countries to limit trade with Russia to cut war funding
- UpdatePutin added a sale of Lukoil's foreign oil assets to US-Russia Ukraine talks; the buyers include Witkoff and Kushner business partners
- UpdateTreasury lifts U.S. sanctions on Russian diesel until April 7, 2027, after Trump says Russia will send 4.8 million tons
- UpdateRussian glide bombs kill 20 in Zaporizhzhia a day after the U.S. suspended Russian diesel sanctions; Putin tells Trump talks won't resume soon
- UpdateFour Republican senators join Democrats in demanding Trump reverse his Russian diesel deal, saying he skipped steps the law requires
Ongoing15 earlier updates35 days
This story has run 16 times over 35 days, starting Sep 9.
- Houthi missiles and drones hit 4 Saudi cities, wounding 73 and halting Aramco's 400,000-barrel-a-day Jazan refinery
- Houthis capture Yemen's Mokha from Saudi-backed forces 46 miles from Bab el-Mandeb
- UpdateHouthi forces captured Mokha and Perim island in the 28-kilometer Bab el-Mandeb strait.
- UpdateA day after the Bab el-Mandeb capture, maritime monitors have recorded no new transit halts
- UpdateSaudi Arabia shuts Hormuz-bypass pipeline, oil rises more than $3 with 4% of supply at risk
- UpdateHouthis seize two more Red Sea islands as Saudi pipeline faces 3-to-5-week outage
- UpdateSaudi Arabia suspends loadings at its last open oil terminal; September cargoes cancelled
- Attacks on Saudi export pipeline push WTI crude to $107.02 a barrel, a 30-day high
- UpdateHouthi missiles hit Riyadh, burning a fuel depot near King Khalid airport
- UpdateSaudi Arabia says it intercepted a Houthi missile aimed at Riyadh
- UpdateTrump declined a prepared U.S. air campaign against the Houthis, giving Saudi Arabia intelligence and targeting data instead
- UpdateSaudi Arabia tested its shut east-west pipeline for a restart as oil fell below $98
- UpdateStrike on Riyadh airport kills 12, including an American; Trump says the U.S. "may" join Saudi strikes on the Houthis
- UpdateRiyadh airport hit again Sunday, Oct. 11, killing one; Saturday's strike toll rises to at least 13, including an American
- UpdateSaudi Arabia investigates why its air defenses failed to stop the Houthi strike that killed at least 13 at Riyadh's airport
- UpdateSaudi-led coalition bombs Houthi oil facilities and a fuel depot in Yemen after a Riyadh airport strike killed at least 13 — this issue
Trump accuses the Houthis of pushing up oil prices before the Nov. 3 midterms; a Houthi official threatens U.S. interests if America joins the fight.
Saudi-led coalition jets struck Houthi-held oil facilities and a key fuel depot in Yemen, payback for the Houthi strike on Riyadh's King Khalid airport. The Houthis are the Iran-backed rebel group that holds much of Yemen. That Saturday, Oct. 10 strike killed at least 13, including an American, and injured more than 300, per AP; a second strike on Sunday, Oct. 11 killed one more, bringing the airport toll to at least 14. Houthi attacks kept coming.
Trump. On Truth Social, he accused the Houthis of trying to drive up oil prices before the midterms (the congressional elections on Tuesday, Nov. 3): "I'm not running in the Elections... but I'll be there after the Elections, and I will never forget!" He is not on the ballot but stays president after the vote. Brent, the global benchmark, settled at $105.69 a barrel on Tuesday, Oct. 13, a day after its highest close since Sept. 15; U.S. crude settled at $94.14, per Reuters.
The Houthis. An official told AFP that if the U.S. joins, "there will be a swift and painful response targeting the US and all its interests in the region."
Still open. The week's death toll. CBS counts at least 20 killed in Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia, including one American; NBC counts at least 14.
Catch up
- Sept. 15 — Houthis seized two more Red Sea islands; drone damage put Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, carrying about 4 million barrels a day, out for weeks.
- Sept. 16–17 — Aramco halted loadings at Yanbu, its last open terminal; supertanker hire topped $1 million a day and U.S. crude hit $107.02.
- Sept. 19 — Trump declined a prepared U.S. air campaign against the Houthis, giving the Saudis intelligence and targeting data instead.
- Sept. 20–21 — Houthi missiles burned a fuel depot near Riyadh's airport; Saudi Arabia intercepted another missile aimed at the capital.
- Sept. 23 — Saudi Arabia tested the East-West pipeline for a restart; oil fell below $98.
- Oct. 10–11 — Strikes on Riyadh's airport killed at least 14, including an American; Trump said the U.S. "may" join Saudi strikes.
- Oct. 12 — A new drone-and-cruise-missile attack hit; Saudi Arabia began investigating its air-defense failure and closed the airport until Oct. 17.
14 earlier issues
- Houthi missiles and drones hit 4 Saudi cities, wounding 73 and halting Aramco's 400,000-barrel-a-day Jazan refinery
- Houthis capture Yemen's Mokha from Saudi-backed forces 46 miles from Bab el-Mandeb
- UpdateHouthi forces captured Mokha and Perim island in the 28-kilometer Bab el-Mandeb strait.
- UpdateA day after the Bab el-Mandeb capture, maritime monitors have recorded no new transit halts
- UpdateSaudi Arabia shuts Hormuz-bypass pipeline, oil rises more than $3 with 4% of supply at risk
- UpdateHouthis seize two more Red Sea islands as Saudi pipeline faces 3-to-5-week outage
- UpdateSaudi Arabia suspends loadings at its last open oil terminal; September cargoes cancelled
- Attacks on Saudi export pipeline push WTI crude to $107.02 a barrel, a 30-day high
- UpdateHouthi missiles hit Riyadh, burning a fuel depot near King Khalid airport
- UpdateSaudi Arabia says it intercepted a Houthi missile aimed at Riyadh
- UpdateTrump declined a prepared U.S. air campaign against the Houthis, giving Saudi Arabia intelligence and targeting data instead
- UpdateSaudi Arabia tested its shut east-west pipeline for a restart as oil fell below $98
- UpdateStrike on Riyadh airport kills 12, including an American; Trump says the U.S. "may" join Saudi strikes on the Houthis
- UpdateRiyadh airport hit again Sunday, Oct. 11, killing one; Saturday's strike toll rises to at least 13, including an American
BackgroundWhat the U.S. has already sold Saudi Arabia to fight with
- Saudi Arabia agreed earlier this year to buy 730 Patriot missiles from the U.S. for $9 billion (NBC); how many have been delivered is not public.
- Saudi Arabia took 12% of all U.S. arms exports from 2021 to 2025 (NBC).
Ongoing6 earlier updates6 days
This story has run 7 times over 6 days, starting Oct 8.
- Kimberly Guilfoyle asked a Trump donor to wire $100,000 to her American Express bill before her ambassador confirmation hearing, messages show
- UpdateDonor says Ambassador Kimberly Guilfoyle's $100,000 credit-card request was 'pay to play'; House Democrats request her records by Oct. 22
- UpdateState Dept inspector general investigates Ambassador Kimberly Guilfoyle over alleged $100,000 request to a donor
- UpdateState Department watchdog investigates Ambassador Kimberly Guilfoyle as the WSJ publishes texts offering donors access to Trump
- UpdateTrump and Rubio weigh firing Ambassador to Greece Kimberly Guilfoyle over alleged request that a donor pay her $100,000 credit-card bill
- UpdateTrump says he is 'looking at' firing Ambassador to Greece Kimberly Guilfoyle: 'We're not happy'
- UpdateKimberly Guilfoyle resigns as ambassador to Greece after the White House asks her to go over an alleged $100,000 credit-card request to a donor — this issue
She called the allegations false and gave no date for leaving; she served less than a year in Athens.
The resignation. New White House press secretary Katie Zacharia announced on Tuesday, Oct. 13, that Trump had asked Kimberly Guilfoyle to resign. About two hours later, Guilfoyle confirmed the resignation on X.
The allegation. Wall Street Journal reports say she pressed donor Eric Deters to pay a $100,000 American Express bill, compared with about $300,000 he says he paid her over the years, in exchange for access before her July 2025 confirmation hearing. Deters says he never paid it. "It was a quid pro quo," he told NBC.
“She wasn't a member of my family. She, I guess, dated my son a long time ago We didn't like what we were reading.”Donald Trump
What next. House Oversight Democrats want her messages and financial records by Thursday, Oct. 22. Two people familiar with the probe told NBC News on Oct. 9 that the State Department inspector general (the department's internal watchdog) is investigating her and the Athens embassy; the watchdog does not confirm investigations, and the State Department declined to comment.
Catch up
- Oct. 7 — Reports said Guilfoyle asked donor Eric Deters to wire $100,000 to her Amex bill before her 2025 confirmation hearing, the same total as the $50,000 in back pay plus $50,000 for her services listed in his June 11, 2025 letter. The same day, in Athens, Secretary of State Marco Rubio called her "a strong ambassador."
- Oct. 8 — Deters called it "pay to play" and said he never paid. Her lawyer called the texts fake, and House Democrats demanded her records by Oct. 22.
- Oct. 9–10 — NBC News, citing two people familiar, reported an inspector general investigation. The Journal published texts in which she offered donors access to Trump.
- Oct. 11–12 — Trump and Rubio weighed firing her. Trump said "we're not happy," and her lawyers said Deters owed her about $150,000 for speeches and consulting, vs. the $100,000 bill he says he refused to pay.
- UpdateTrump says he is 'looking at' firing Ambassador to Greece Kimberly Guilfoyle: 'We're not happy'
5 earlier issues
- Kimberly Guilfoyle asked a Trump donor to wire $100,000 to her American Express bill before her ambassador confirmation hearing, messages show
- UpdateDonor says Ambassador Kimberly Guilfoyle's $100,000 credit-card request was 'pay to play'; House Democrats request her records by Oct. 22
- UpdateState Dept inspector general investigates Ambassador Kimberly Guilfoyle over alleged $100,000 request to a donor
- UpdateState Department watchdog investigates Ambassador Kimberly Guilfoyle as the WSJ publishes texts offering donors access to Trump
- UpdateTrump and Rubio weigh firing Ambassador to Greece Kimberly Guilfoyle over alleged request that a donor pay her $100,000 credit-card bill
How the $100,000 request allegedly tied payment to access
- After Deters refused to pay on July 3, 2025, she allegedly wrote: “You could be here meeting with [then-IRS Commissioner] Billy Long.”
- A June 11, 2025 letter from Deters lists $50,000 in back pay plus $50,000 for her services through confirmation; her lawyer disputes the messages are authentic.
Ongoing1 earlier update
This story has run 2 times, starting Oct 13.
- UpdateU.S. warns it could cut off Ukraine's intelligence and NATO-run weapons purchases unless Kyiv stops striking Russian energy sites
- UpdateFive Russian ballistic missiles hit Kyiv without a U.S. launch warning; Trump says intelligence sharing continues — this issue
A second night of strikes, Tuesday, Oct. 13, killed one person in Kyiv and hit the Darnytska CHP-4 power plant, two days after Trump announced an energy ceasefire.
Five Russian ballistic missiles hit Kyiv on Monday night (Oct. 12) without the early warning Ukraine normally gets from its partners. The Kyiv Independent identified them as S-400s; Ukraine's Air Force logged them as Iskander-M/S-400 missiles.
Kyiv's account. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine got "no early warning from our partners." A senior Ukrainian official told the Kyiv Independent: "The Americans said they just didn't see (the launch)... That's a weak excuse."
Washington's answer. Trump said: "We are helping them, and we are sharing intel. We want the war to end." Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha also said sharing continues. Kyiv Independent sources said the same.
The ceasefire. Russia has launched more than 100 weapons at Ukraine since Monday evening (Oct. 12), per NBC News. On Tuesday night (Oct. 13), a strike on a Kyiv apartment block also hit the Darnytska CHP-4 heat-and-power plant, killing one person and injuring 13, the BBC reported. In Kharkiv, a destroyed apartment building killed four and wounded 41.
Catch up
Over the weekend of Saturday, Oct. 10 and Sunday, Oct. 11, the State Department and Pentagon warned Kyiv that it could lose U.S. intelligence and NATO-run weapons purchases unless it stopped striking Russian energy sites, and the U.S. military told Ukrainian commanders directly. On Sunday, Oct. 11, Trump announced an energy ceasefire that he said took effect immediately; he gave no terms, and Ukraine backed it while asking for details.
What Ukraine's own logs show about this missed warning
- Ukraine's Air Force logged the target at 22:09 and issued the Kyiv alert at 22:10. Neither time measures how long the missiles flew.
- The first count was six missiles of unknown type. The Air Force later revised it to five Iskander-M/S-400 missiles.
- No U.S. detection logs or Ukrainian relay logs have been released, so the record does not show whether detection failed or transmission failed.
Ongoing32 earlier updates83 days
This story has run 33 times over 83 days, starting Jul 23.
- Trump Threatens to Bomb Iranian Bridges and Power Plants for Every Ship Hit in Strait of Hormuz
- Iran fires multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. base in Jordan; all are intercepted
- Iran denies Trump’s claim that new U.S. talks would start Monday
- Cargo ship is struck in the Strait of Hormuz
- Vance says the Iran talks are moving, then calls the war only half over
- Iran won't reopen Hormuz until the US unfreezes its assets and lifts the blockade
- Trump threatens to bomb Oman, the U.S. ally brokering the deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
- Trump declares an "economic D-Day" on Iran as Hormuz traffic runs 85% below normal
- UpdateU.S. goes nearly a month without large Iran strikes as Trump shifts back to sanctions; Hormuz remains closed
- U.S. destroys two Iranian rocket launchers loaded to mine the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at bases in Jordan, all intercepted
- UpdateU.S. bombs two Iranian rocket sites near the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at Jordan
- UpdateU.S. forces struck IRGC air-defense, radar, maritime and mine-laying sites on Iran's southern coast starting at noon on Sept. 1
- UpdateU.S. hits about 100 Iranian targets; Iran fires back at American bases in four countries, and a cruise missile kills 4 at a wedding
- Reuters weapons experts say a US munition made a direct hit on the Iranian wedding house that killed 5
- US destroys or disables 3 Iranian oil tankers after Iran fired ballistic missiles at a US carrier and destroyer
- UpdateIran says it hit an unmanned US vessel a day after the tanker strikes; Central Command calls the claim "a total lie"
- UpdateIran says it will declare a restricted zone near the Strait of Hormuz and will strike threats "even before" they are carried out
- Iran says it seized a US sea drone in Hormuz; CENTCOM says it malfunctioned a day earlier
- UpdateIran fires 20 missiles at a US base in Jordan; Jordan says it intercepted 18
- UpdateNavy plans to keep 2 carrier groups near Iran at least through 2026
- UpdateUnidentified projectile hits Iranian container ship off Hengam Island, killing 1 and wounding 4
- UpdateOil's chokepoint shifts to refineries and tankers as JPMorgan drops its baseline oil forecast
- UpdateTrump says he is choosing among wiping Iran out, letting it rot economically, or a deal, and would "probably" meet Pezeshkian at the UN this week
- UpdateIran offers to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. lifts its naval blockade as traffic falls to two ships
- Iran proposes seven-day ceasefire plan to reopen Strait of Hormuz and revive nuclear talks
- UpdateTrump rejects Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days in exchange for ending the U.S. blockade
- Trump expects more Iran talks this week after rejecting Iran's Hormuz offer; Iran won't soften its terms
- UpdateIran says its UN delegation has no talks planned with the US and will fly home Tuesday, Sept. 29; mediators keep working
- UpdateQatari compromise to end the U.S.-Iran war stalls; Trump denies aides' account that he offered Iran sanctions relief
- Rubio orders Iran's UN delegation out of New York; Trump says Iran will "sign a very fair deal, or they won't exist any longer"
- UpdateCRS: 81 U.S. aircraft and drones lost or damaged in Iran war, up from 42 in May
- Iran's security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, calls the U.S. reply to Tehran's plan to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz insufficient and says Iran has stopped responding
- UpdateIran targeted 24 ships in the Strait of Hormuz in two weeks, its most since the war began, by the FT's count — this issue
Britain's UKMTO shipping office counted six vessels attacked on Sunday, Oct. 11 alone; the previous two-week high was 13 ships, in early March.
Iran attacked 24 tankers and other vessels in and around the Strait of Hormuz in the two weeks to Sunday, Oct. 11, by the Financial Times' count from UKMTO and European security reports, the worst stretch since the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran began Feb. 28 (the next worst, early March, had 13). Iran's army also announced it has deployed units east of the strait, in the Arabian Sea and the Sea of Oman, the open water ships enter after leaving the Gulf.
Sunday, Oct. 11. UKMTO counted six vessels attacked. The Joint Maritime Information Center's report that day details three tankers hit; a fourth ship, the Ocean Molica, was struck by U.S. forces, not Iran.
Still open. The FT has not published a ship-by-ship list, so how many of the 24 were damaged, disabled or lost crew is not yet known.
Catch up
- Sept. 14 — An unidentified projectile hit an Iranian container ship off Hengam Island, killing one; Trump wouldn't say whether the U.S. fired it.
- Sept. 20 — A hit on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and a supertanker shortage began squeezing fuel supplies.
- Sept. 23–27 — Iran offered to reopen Hormuz within a week if the U.S. lifted its naval blockade; Trump rejected it.
- Sept. 30 — A Qatari compromise stalled; U.S. officials said major combat could resume after the Nov. 3 midterms.
- Oct. 2 — Secretary of State Marco Rubio ordered Iran's UN delegation out of New York.
- Oct. 8 — Congressional researchers counted 81 U.S. aircraft and drones lost or damaged, up from 42 in May.
- Oct. 12 — Iran's security chief Mohsen Rezaei called the U.S. reply insufficient, said Tehran stopped responding, and threatened undersea cables and data centers.
31 earlier issues
- Trump Threatens to Bomb Iranian Bridges and Power Plants for Every Ship Hit in Strait of Hormuz
- Iran fires multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. base in Jordan; all are intercepted
- Iran denies Trump’s claim that new U.S. talks would start Monday
- Cargo ship is struck in the Strait of Hormuz
- Vance says the Iran talks are moving, then calls the war only half over
- Iran won't reopen Hormuz until the US unfreezes its assets and lifts the blockade
- Trump threatens to bomb Oman, the U.S. ally brokering the deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
- Trump declares an "economic D-Day" on Iran as Hormuz traffic runs 85% below normal
- UpdateU.S. goes nearly a month without large Iran strikes as Trump shifts back to sanctions; Hormuz remains closed
- U.S. destroys two Iranian rocket launchers loaded to mine the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at bases in Jordan, all intercepted
- UpdateU.S. bombs two Iranian rocket sites near the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at Jordan
- UpdateU.S. forces struck IRGC air-defense, radar, maritime and mine-laying sites on Iran's southern coast starting at noon on Sept. 1
- UpdateU.S. hits about 100 Iranian targets; Iran fires back at American bases in four countries, and a cruise missile kills 4 at a wedding
- Reuters weapons experts say a US munition made a direct hit on the Iranian wedding house that killed 5
- US destroys or disables 3 Iranian oil tankers after Iran fired ballistic missiles at a US carrier and destroyer
- UpdateIran says it hit an unmanned US vessel a day after the tanker strikes; Central Command calls the claim "a total lie"
- UpdateIran says it will declare a restricted zone near the Strait of Hormuz and will strike threats "even before" they are carried out
- Iran says it seized a US sea drone in Hormuz; CENTCOM says it malfunctioned a day earlier
- UpdateIran fires 20 missiles at a US base in Jordan; Jordan says it intercepted 18
- UpdateNavy plans to keep 2 carrier groups near Iran at least through 2026
- UpdateUnidentified projectile hits Iranian container ship off Hengam Island, killing 1 and wounding 4
- UpdateOil's chokepoint shifts to refineries and tankers as JPMorgan drops its baseline oil forecast
- UpdateTrump says he is choosing among wiping Iran out, letting it rot economically, or a deal, and would "probably" meet Pezeshkian at the UN this week
- UpdateIran offers to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. lifts its naval blockade as traffic falls to two ships
- Iran proposes seven-day ceasefire plan to reopen Strait of Hormuz and revive nuclear talks
- UpdateTrump rejects Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days in exchange for ending the U.S. blockade
- Trump expects more Iran talks this week after rejecting Iran's Hormuz offer; Iran won't soften its terms
- UpdateIran says its UN delegation has no talks planned with the US and will fly home Tuesday, Sept. 29; mediators keep working
- UpdateQatari compromise to end the U.S.-Iran war stalls; Trump denies aides' account that he offered Iran sanctions relief
- Rubio orders Iran's UN delegation out of New York; Trump says Iran will "sign a very fair deal, or they won't exist any longer"
- UpdateCRS: 81 U.S. aircraft and drones lost or damaged in Iran war, up from 42 in May
What the three confirmed Oct. 11 tanker hits did, per the Joint Maritime Information Center:
- One tanker lost power and had to be towed
- One caught fire; the fire was put out
- One took damage to its steering room and water tanks; all three crews reported safe
He faces up to five years in prison if convicted; a detention hearing is set for Oct. 19.
Alfozan, 35, a Saudi national at OpenAI since July 2025, allegedly hid an encrypted recorder, wrapped in toilet paper, in a TV's USB port in a room where OpenAI leaders discuss research, products and government work, per the Justice Department.
What he's charged with. One wiretap-law count: using or trying to use a device to intercept private conversations. Arrested Friday, Oct. 9; first court appearance Tuesday, Oct. 13.
How it was found. Staff found the device Sept. 30, about two days after it went in. OpenAI says its AI models helped trace it to him; it alerted the FBI and fired him, per the BBC.
The catch. The contents were encrypted, and DOJ has not said any audio was recovered. OpenAI sees no sign model weights, source code or customer data were taken. Officials call it a national-security case, but the public allegations name no foreign government, buyer or motive, Newsweek notes.
What next. A judge decides Oct. 19 whether he stays jailed until trial.
What the complaint cites
- Security footage of him near the room, which he had no authority to enter.
- Prompts from a chatbot account tied to his spouse on building a hidden recorder, including the planted device's network ID.
- A second recorder found in his unattended bag on Oct. 5, per the Justice Department.
Quick bites14
Moody's chief economist estimates the Iran war has cost the average US household $2,000 so far
THE HILLIran warMark Zandi of Moody's Analytics puts the cost at $2,000 per household, or $265 billion nationwide, since the war began Feb. 28, per The Hill and Newsweek. About $1,100 is higher energy costs, CNN reports; $540 is higher interest rates and $360 is military spending, per Benzinga. Zandi says the total has absorbed about half the average household's income gain over the past eight months. It is his own estimate, posted on X Monday, Oct. 12; Moody's has not published the method.
Netanyahu pressed Trump on several calls for a new joint strike on Iran, Axios reports
AXIOSIran warNetanyahu cited intelligence that Iran is rebuilding its nuclear program, and both militaries are reportedly finishing preparations, but the White House calls the report false and says Trump will not attack Iran before the midterms.
Dates and details
- Oct. 2: Trump's cabinet met at Camp David to discuss resuming strikes, per Axios.
- Oct. 27: Israel holds its elections, ahead of the U.S. midterms.
- Pickaxe Mountain: the site Israel fears Iran may use to enrich uranium.
Vance says Trump will use the Defense Production Act to expand Delek's 74,000-barrel-a-day refinery in Tyler, Texas
REUTERSVice President JD Vance announced the plan on Tuesday, Oct. 13, at a Tyler campaign stop for Texas Senate nominee Ken Paxton, pitching it as a fix for Iran-war fuel prices. The refinery processes about 74,000 barrels a day, per Reuters. Reuters cites no signed order, and the White House and Delek did not say how much capacity, money or time the expansion involves.
MI5 chief says Iran is now targeting UK military sites, citing last month's RAF Fairford incident
WASHINGTON EXAMINERRAF Fairford plotMI5 Director General Ken McCallum said on Tuesday, Oct. 13, that Iran-linked operations in Britain now reach "harder targets, like military sites," and that the Fairford case "is not unique." On Sept. 27 police evacuated homes near RAF Fairford, the U.S.-run base in western England used to bomb Iran, and found gasoline in three vans but no explosives, per AP. Prime Minister Andy Burnham says the plot was "almost certainly" directed by Iran's Revolutionary Guard; Iran denies it, and the government has not made its evidence public. McCallum still ranks Russia as Britain's "aggressor number one."
The numbers
- More than 50 arrests in the UK tied to Iran-linked operations in the past 12 months (Washington Examiner, NBC News)
- Seven men in their 20s arrested over Fairford, all released on bail; none charged (AP)
September CPI, the last before the midterms, is expected to show inflation rising to 3.6%–3.7% from 3.4%
NBC NEWSInflation and ratesThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the report at 8:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 14. NBC News puts the forecast at 3.7%; the Dow Jones survey of forecasters cited by CNBC and Kiplinger has 3.6%. Louisiana GOP Senate nominee Julia Letlow (Rep-R Louisiana) says diesel costs have some farmers close to going under, NBC reports.
NY Fed President John Williams backs one more rate hike this year and none in 2027
BLOOMBERGInflation and ratesWilliams told Bloomberg in an Oct. 13 interview that one more hike in 2026 is appropriate but he does not expect the Fed to raise rates again in 2027, a view Reuters also reported. The Fed raised its benchmark rate a quarter point to 3.75%–4.00% on Sept. 16, its first hike since July 2023, per CNBC. One more quarter-point move would reach 4.00%–4.25%, the year-end range Fed officials projected in September, per Reuters.
Trump officials now lean against livestreaming Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan's Dec. 3 execution
CBS NEWSUpdateFort Hood executionAdministration officials now lean against livestreaming the Dec. 3 firing-squad execution of Nidal Hasan, who killed 13 people at Fort Hood in 2009, though Trump had not made a final call as of Tuesday, Oct. 13, per CBS News. CNN reports Trump privately said he hadn't known Hasan is paralyzed from the waist down.
Catch up
- Oct. 5 — The Pentagon announced Trump had approved Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's recommendation to execute Hasan by Army firing squad; the Army set Dec. 3 the next day.
- Oct. 7–8 — Hegseth said the execution would be public; on Oct. 8 a Pentagon official said it would be livestreamed on a platform not yet named.
- Oct. 9 — Trump said he "absolutely" approved; Vance doubted the stream would happen as GOP senators, Catholic bishops and the UN objected.
- Oct. 10 — Trump said he would make the final decision on the stream.
- Oct. 12 — A Pentagon official said the stream was still on; Trump privately told a confidant it "might not happen."
4 earlier issues
- Trump approves Army firing-squad execution of Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan, set for Dec. 3
- UpdatePentagon will livestream Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan's Dec. 3 firing-squad execution
- UpdateVance doubts the Pentagon will livestream Nidal Hasan's Dec. 3 execution as GOP senators, Catholic bishops and the UN object
- UpdateTrump says he will decide whether to livestream Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan's Dec. 3 firing-squad execution
How rare this would be
- The U.S. has carried out 6 firing-squad executions since 1977, per Axios.
- The last public U.S. execution was about 90 years ago, per Axios.
Ongoing5
This story has run 6 times over 7 days, starting Oct 7.
- Trump approves Army firing-squad execution of Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan, set for Dec. 3
- UpdatePentagon will livestream Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan's Dec. 3 firing-squad execution
- UpdateVance doubts the Pentagon will livestream Nidal Hasan's Dec. 3 execution as GOP senators, Catholic bishops and the UN object
- UpdateTrump says he will decide whether to livestream Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan's Dec. 3 firing-squad execution
- UpdatePentagon official says Hasan's Dec. 3 execution will still be livestreamed despite growing GOP objections
- UpdateTrump officials now lean against livestreaming Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan's Dec. 3 execution — this issue
Press secretary Katie Zacharia's first briefing lasted 14 minutes and took questions from three outlets
WASHINGTON EXAMINERUpdatePress secretary Katie Zacharia's first White House briefing ran 14 minutes, according to a Washington Examiner column. The column says she spent eight of them reading remarks and took questions only from Breitbart, Fox News and the Daily Mail.
Catch up
On Oct. 9 Trump named Truth Social adviser Katie Zacharia press secretary, replacing Karoline Leavitt, who left in late August (CNN, Time). Before her debut, CNN reported on her past social media posts, and the White House had held no formal briefing since Vice President JD Vance's on Sept. 3, per Time.
Ongoing2
This story has run 3 times over 4 days, starting Oct 10.
- Trump names Truth Social adviser Katie Zacharia White House press secretary, replacing Karoline Leavitt
- UpdateKatie Zacharia replaces Karoline Leavitt as White House press secretary as CNN surfaces her conspiracy-laced posts
- UpdatePress secretary Katie Zacharia's first briefing lasted 14 minutes and took questions from three outlets — this issue
Houston DA says video shows ICE officer ran a man over on purpose, weighs assault charge
NBC NEWSUpdateICE raidsTeare says ICE is not cooperating and may have let data in the vehicle be erased. Miguel Parra Hernandez, 48, remains in ICE custody facing more surgery, per The Guardian.
On Saturday, Oct. 10, an ICE officer chasing another man hit Parra Hernandez with a vehicle in northwest Harris County, breaking his leg. DHS said its target, Jose Mendoza-Cervantes, had a final removal order.
The two accounts
- ICE says Parra Hernandez ran in front of the vehicle.
- His lawyer says he never knew the man agents were chasing.
- Teare says the video makes intent "pretty obvious"; no charge has been filed yet.
CVS will pay $315 million to settle DOJ claims it billed federal programs for unnecessary opioid prescriptions
NBC NEWSThe Justice Department alleged CVS filled prescriptions from "pill mills"; CVS admits no wrongdoing but must add new safeguards on how it dispenses opioids.
How old the case is
- Whistleblower Hillary Estright first filed the case in 2019, per The Hill.
- The government's lawsuit was filed in 2024, per NBC News, PBS NewsHour and the Washington Examiner.
Supreme Court agrees to decide whether DOGE must release its records under FOIA
NBC NEWS: Supreme Court to decide if DOGE must open its records to the public
The justices will rule on whether DOGE is an agency that must answer public-records requests under FOIA, or a presidential advisory body that is exempt. They will also decide if courts can order discovery to settle that. Groups that only advise the president fall outside FOIA; groups with real power of their own do not.
Key facts
- The plaintiff, Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW), sued to get DOGE's records.
- A federal district judge found DOGE likely subject to FOIA and ordered discovery into how it operates.
- June 2025: the court sided 6-3 with the administration on its emergency docket, halting that discovery, per PBS NewsHour.
- Elon Musk, who led DOGE, has since left it.
- A ruling is expected by the end of June 2027, per NBC News.
GOP super PACs pull money from Reps. Kean and Miller-Meeks as the Congressional Leadership Fund raises spending in 16 other House races
ABC NEWSBattle for the HouseThe Congressional Leadership Fund canceled its spending in four House races, in New Jersey, Iowa, Michigan and Ohio, and raised it in 16, ABC News reports. The Washington Examiner puts the money pulled at $10 million. The cuts include bids to flip Democratic seats in Michigan and Ohio.
The two Republicans losing their air cover
- Tom Kean Jr. (Rep-R New Jersey) and Mariannette Miller-Meeks (Rep-R Iowa) are the incumbents losing CLF and MAGA Inc. money.
- Miller-Meeks beat Democrat Christina Bohannan by 799 votes in 2024.
- Speaker Mike Johnson campaigned at her Davenport headquarters four days before the cut, calling her a voice that can 'get everybody together.'
Gallup: Americans trust Democrats over Republicans on the economy 43% to 35%, first Democratic lead since 2012
THE HILLGallup found 43% of respondents trust Democrats more to deliver economic prosperity versus 35% for Republicans, with independents driving the shift; Democrats also lead on party favorability.
WSJ: Texas Senate nominee Ken Paxton partied in Dubai with two federal healthcare-fraud fugitives
CBS NEWSTexas Senate raceTexas Attorney General Ken Paxton spent New Year's Eve 2024 at a Dubai party with two men who fled federal health care fraud charges. The Wall Street Journal reports the news. Paxton is the GOP pick for Senate. He brought his girlfriend. One of the two men, Anosh Ahmed, had donated to him.
What's on the record
- Paxton's campaign called the report a politically motivated attack; CNN's Andrew Kaczynski (@KFILE) noted the statement does not respond to the specifics.
- The size of Ahmed's donation comes from a single reporter (@efindell); CBS describes one fugitive only as a donor.
Elections22 races
The midterms · 20 days out · November 3, 2026
D or R take the House / Senate?
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 91%, Kalshi 90%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 64%, Kalshi 62%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.
No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only
Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.
- two venues, priced separately
- shaded = how far apart they are
- 50% — control flips here
- where it stood 7 days ago
- the last 7 days, on its own scale
- week panel: one line a party
The week panel draws one line per party, crossing where control does. Only the Democratic line is a traded price: the Republicanline is its arithmetic complement, the same mirror the bar’s other half is, and not a second market agreeing with the first. The shading around each line is how far apart the two venues are.
Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.
The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 0.4pp gap / 2.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.
Who is defending the House and the Senate is sourced, not remembered — House, 2026-07-23 issue: the NDAA passed “216-212, with six Democrats joining a unified Republican majority.”; Senate, 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.”
Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
| Day | U.S. House · Polymarket | U.S. House · Kalshi | U.S. Senate · Polymarket | U.S. Senate · Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days ago | 91% | 91% | 63% | 64% |
| 6 days ago | 91% | 90% | 63% | 63% |
| 5 days ago | 91% | 90% | 63% | 62% |
| 4 days ago | 91% | 90% | 64% | 60% |
| 3 days ago | 91% | 90% | 64% | 60% |
| 2 days ago | 91% | 90% | 64% | 61% |
| yesterday | 91% | 90% | 64% | 62% |
| today | 91% | 90% | 64% | 62% |
3 closest races
wGeorgia governor
POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election
Rick Jackson (R) faces Keisha Lance Bottoms (D).
Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a narrow lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia governor
Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia governor. Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 51.5%, Kalshi 54.5%; Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 47.5%, Kalshi 45.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Rick Jackson 54% · Keisha Lance Bottoms 46%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Rick Jackson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$79.9K51.5%Kalshi736K contracts · 54%/55%55.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move0.0ppKeisha Lance Bottoms (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$109K47.5%Kalshi634K contracts · 45%/46%47.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia governor, snapshot Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT. Day Rick Jackson · Polymarket Rick Jackson · Kalshi Keisha Lance Bottoms · Polymarket Keisha Lance Bottoms · Kalshi 7 days ago 51.5% 55.0% 47.5% 47.0% 6 days ago 53.0% 55.0% 47.5% 46.0% 5 days ago 52.5% 55.0% 47.5% 46.0% 4 days ago 53.5% 55.0% 47.5% 46.0% 3 days ago 53.5% 56.0% 47.5% 46.0% 2 days ago 51.5% 56.0% 47.5% 45.0% yesterday 51.5% 56.0% 47.5% 46.0% today 51.5% 54.5% 47.5% 45.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
xNevada governor
POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election
Aaron Ford (D) faces Joe Lombardo (R).
Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead.
Two markets, one question
Nevada governor
Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nevada governor. Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 54.5%, Kalshi 51.5%; Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 46.0%, Kalshi 48.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Aaron Ford 52% · Joe Lombardo 48%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Aaron Ford (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$198K54.5%Kalshi961K contracts · 51%/52%55.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move0.0ppJoe Lombardo (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$163K45.5%Kalshi406K contracts · 48%/49%47.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nevada governor, snapshot Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT. Day Aaron Ford · Polymarket Aaron Ford · Kalshi Joe Lombardo · Polymarket Joe Lombardo · Kalshi 7 days ago 54.5% 55.0% 45.5% 47.0% 6 days ago 54.5% 53.0% 45.5% 47.0% 5 days ago 53.5% 52.0% 45.5% 49.0% 4 days ago 53.5% 52.0% 46.5% 49.0% 3 days ago 54.5% 52.0% 46.0% 49.0% 2 days ago 54.5% 52.0% 46.0% 48.0% yesterday 54.5% 52.0% 46.0% 48.0% today 54.5% 51.5% 46.0% 48.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
pMaine Senate
POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election
Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).
Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Maine Senate
Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 59.5%, Kalshi 56.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 41.5%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Troy Jackson 57% · Susan Collins 43%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Troy Jackson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$1.2M57.5%Kalshi4.2M contracts · 56%/57%57.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+2.0ppSusan Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$986K43.5%Kalshi4.4M contracts · 43%/44%43.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Maine Senate, snapshot Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT. Day Troy Jackson · Polymarket Troy Jackson · Kalshi Susan Collins · Polymarket Susan Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 57.5% 57.0% 43.5% 43.0% 6 days ago 58.5% 58.0% 42.5% 44.0% 5 days ago 58.5% 57.0% 41.5% 44.0% 4 days ago 58.5% 58.0% 41.5% 43.0% 3 days ago 58.5% 57.0% 41.5% 43.0% 2 days ago 59.5% 57.0% 41.5% 44.0% yesterday 59.5% 58.0% 41.5% 43.0% today 59.5% 56.5% 41.5% 43.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
The other 19 races
Senate9 of 10
rAlaska Senate
POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election
Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).
A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Alaska Senate
Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 73.5%, Kalshi 74.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 26.5%, Kalshi 26.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Mary Peltola 74% · Dan Sullivan 27%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Mary Peltola (D)7 days agoPolymarket$779K73.5%Kalshi202K contracts · 74%/75%77.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move0.0ppDan Sullivan (R)7 days agoPolymarket$418K26.5%Kalshi220K contracts · 26%/27%25.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska Senate, snapshot Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT. Day Mary Peltola · Polymarket Mary Peltola · Kalshi Dan Sullivan · Polymarket Dan Sullivan · Kalshi 7 days ago 73.5% 77.0% 26.5% 25.0% 6 days ago 73.5% 77.0% 26.5% 24.0% 5 days ago 72.5% 76.0% 26.5% 24.0% 4 days ago 72.5% 74.0% 28.5% 28.0% 3 days ago 72.5% 72.0% 28.5% 28.0% 2 days ago 73.5% 75.0% 26.5% 28.0% yesterday 73.5% 75.0% 26.5% 26.0% today 73.5% 74.5% 26.5% 26.5% zGeorgia Senate
POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election
Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia Senate
Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.2pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 96.1%, Kalshi 95.1%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 3.85%, Kalshi 5.00%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.2pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jon Ossoff 95% · Mike Collins 4.9%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jon Ossoff (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$96.8K96.75%Kalshi498K contracts · 95%/95%96.10%venue gap0.7pp7-day move-0.7ppMike Collins (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$133K3.3%Kalshi1.2M contracts · 4.7%/5.3%3.9%venue gap0.6pp7-day move+0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. Georgia Senate, snapshot Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT. Day Jon Ossoff · Polymarket Jon Ossoff · Kalshi Mike Collins · Polymarket Mike Collins · Kalshi 7 days ago 96.75% 96.1% 3.30% 3.9% 6 days ago 96.60% 95.8% 3.55% 3.7% 5 days ago 96.40% 95.9% 3.85% 4.8% 4 days ago 96.25% 95.4% 3.75% 4.9% 3 days ago 96.20% 95.4% 3.65% 4.9% 2 days ago 96.05% 95.4% 3.80% 4.4% yesterday 96.10% 95.4% 3.85% 4.9% today 96.10% 95.1% 3.85% 5.0% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
sIowa Senate
POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election
Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).
An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Iowa Senate
Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 57.5%, Kalshi 59.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 42.5%, Kalshi 40.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Ashley Hinson 59% · Josh Turek 41%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Ashley Hinson (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$391K55.5%Kalshi2.3M contracts · 59%/60%55.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+2.0ppJosh Turek (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$486K44.5%Kalshi2.6M contracts · 40%/41%46.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa Senate, snapshot Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT. Day Ashley Hinson · Polymarket Ashley Hinson · Kalshi Josh Turek · Polymarket Josh Turek · Kalshi 7 days ago 55.5% 55.0% 44.5% 46.0% 6 days ago 57.5% 55.0% 43.5% 45.0% 5 days ago 58.5% 57.0% 42.5% 44.0% 4 days ago 58.5% 58.0% 42.5% 43.0% 3 days ago 58.5% 57.0% 42.5% 43.0% 2 days ago 57.5% 58.0% 42.5% 43.0% yesterday 57.5% 59.0% 42.5% 41.0% today 57.5% 59.5% 42.5% 40.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
tMichigan Senate
POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election
Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Michigan Senate
Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 70.5%, Kalshi 67.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 32.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 68% · Mike Rogers 32%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Abdul El-Sayed (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$957K71.5%Kalshi2.7M contracts · 67%/68%71.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-1.0ppMike Rogers (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$674K29.5%Kalshi4.0M contracts · 32%/33%29.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan Senate, snapshot Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT. Day Abdul El-Sayed · Polymarket Abdul El-Sayed · Kalshi Mike Rogers · Polymarket Mike Rogers · Kalshi 7 days ago 71.5% 71.0% 29.5% 29.0% 6 days ago 67.5% 71.0% 32.5% 31.0% 5 days ago 68.5% 69.0% 32.5% 31.0% 4 days ago 69.5% 67.0% 31.5% 34.0% 3 days ago 70.5% 67.0% 30.5% 35.0% 2 days ago 70.5% 67.0% 29.5% 34.0% yesterday 70.5% 67.0% 30.5% 34.0% today 70.5% 67.5% 30.5% 32.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
aaNebraska Senate
POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election
Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Nebraska Senate
Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 72.5%, Kalshi 74.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 27.5%, Kalshi 24.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Pete Ricketts 74% · Dan Osborn 25%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Pete Ricketts (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$319K71.5%Kalshi1.5M contracts · 74%/75%73.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+1.0ppDan Osborn (I)7 days agoPolymarket$184K28.5%Kalshi938K contracts · 24%/25%27.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move-1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Nebraska Senate, snapshot Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT. Day Pete Ricketts · Polymarket Pete Ricketts · Kalshi Dan Osborn · Polymarket Dan Osborn · Kalshi 7 days ago 71.5% 73.0% 28.5% 27.0% 6 days ago 71.5% 74.0% 28.5% 28.0% 5 days ago 71.5% 73.0% 28.5% 28.0% 4 days ago 71.5% 74.0% 28.5% 27.0% 3 days ago 72.5% 74.0% 28.5% 27.0% 2 days ago 72.5% 74.0% 27.5% 28.0% yesterday 72.5% 74.0% 27.5% 26.0% today 72.5% 74.5% 27.5% 24.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
abNew Hampshire Senate
POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election
Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
New Hampshire Senate
Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 88.5%, Kalshi 89.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 12.5%, Kalshi 10.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Chris Pappas 89% · John E. Sununu 11%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Chris Pappas (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$165K—Kalshi576K contracts · 89%/90%90%venue gap—7-day move-1.0ppJohn E. Sununu (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$165K11%Kalshi1.4M contracts · 10%/11%11%venue gap0.0pp7-day move+1.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. New Hampshire Senate, snapshot Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT. Day Chris Pappas · Polymarket Chris Pappas · Kalshi John E. Sununu · Polymarket John E. Sununu · Kalshi 7 days ago — 90.0% 11.0% 11.0% 6 days ago 89.5% 88.0% 11.0% 11.0% 5 days ago 89.5% 90.0% 10.5% 11.0% 4 days ago 89.5% 90.0% 10.5% 11.0% 3 days ago 88.5% 90.0% 11.5% 10.0% 2 days ago 88.5% 90.0% 12.5% 10.0% yesterday 88.5% 90.0% 12.5% 11.0% today 88.5% 89.5% 12.5% 10.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
yNorth Carolina Senate
POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election
Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
North Carolina Senate
Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.6pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 95.85%, Kalshi 95.30%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 4.30%, Kalshi 4.85%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.6pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Roy Cooper 95% · Michael Whatley 4.8%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Roy Cooper (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$110K96.3%Kalshi1.6M contracts · 95%/96%96.5%venue gap0.2pp7-day move-0.4ppMichael Whatley (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$113K3.75%Kalshi1.6M contracts · 4.5%/5.2%3.60%venue gap0.2pp7-day move+0.5ppEvery sample behind the chart. North Carolina Senate, snapshot Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT. Day Roy Cooper · Polymarket Roy Cooper · Kalshi Michael Whatley · Polymarket Michael Whatley · Kalshi 7 days ago 96.30% 96.5% 3.75% 3.60% 6 days ago 96.35% 96.8% 3.60% 2.80% 5 days ago 96.35% 96.9% 3.60% 3.20% 4 days ago 96.30% 96.3% 3.75% 4.20% 3 days ago 96.10% 96.0% 4.00% 4.00% 2 days ago 95.85% 95.4% 4.30% 5.20% yesterday 95.85% 95.3% 4.30% 4.90% today 95.85% 95.3% 4.30% 4.85% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
uOhio Senate
POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election
Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).
A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Ohio Senate
Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 61.5%, Kalshi 59.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 39.5%, Kalshi 40.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Sherrod Brown 60% · Jon Husted 40%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Sherrod Brown (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$707K61.5%Kalshi3.4M contracts · 59%/60%63.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move0.0ppJon Husted (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$465K38.5%Kalshi3.3M contracts · 40%/41%38.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio Senate, snapshot Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT. Day Sherrod Brown · Polymarket Sherrod Brown · Kalshi Jon Husted · Polymarket Jon Husted · Kalshi 7 days ago 61.5% 63.0% 38.5% 38.0% 6 days ago 62.5% 63.0% 38.5% 38.0% 5 days ago 61.5% 62.0% 39.5% 40.0% 4 days ago 61.5% 61.0% 38.5% 40.0% 3 days ago 61.5% 59.0% 39.5% 41.0% 2 days ago 61.5% 60.0% 39.5% 40.0% yesterday 61.5% 60.0% 39.5% 41.0% today 61.5% 59.5% 39.5% 40.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
qTexas Senate
POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election
James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Texas Senate
Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 64.5%, Kalshi 64.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 36.5%, Kalshi 36.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: James Talarico 65% · Ken Paxton 37%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
James Talarico (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$1.6M63.5%Kalshi9.9M contracts · 64%/65%67.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move+1.0ppKen Paxton (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$1.9M36.5%Kalshi17M contracts · 36%/37%35.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas Senate, snapshot Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT. Day James Talarico · Polymarket James Talarico · Kalshi Ken Paxton · Polymarket Ken Paxton · Kalshi 7 days ago 63.5% 67.0% 36.5% 35.0% 6 days ago 62.5% 67.0% 37.5% 35.0% 5 days ago 64.5% 66.0% 35.5% 37.0% 4 days ago 62.5% 62.0% 37.5% 38.0% 3 days ago 62.5% 63.0% 35.5% 38.0% 2 days ago 64.5% 63.0% 36.5% 37.0% yesterday 64.5% 64.0% 36.5% 36.0% today 64.5% 64.5% 36.5% 36.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
Governors10 of 12
adAlaska governor
POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election
Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).
Wilson holds a clear lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Alaska governor
Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT
widest venue gap 3.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 24.5%, Kalshi 21.5%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 0.05%, Kalshi 0.50%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 5–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Bernadette Wilson 24% · Tom Begich 0.3%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Bernadette Wilson (R)7 days agoPolymarket$231K19.5%Kalshi77.0K contracts · 21%/22%—venue gap—7-day move+5.0ppTom Begich (D)7 days agoPolymarket$173K1.15%Kalshi246K contracts · 0.4%/0.6%—venue gap—7-day move-1.1ppEvery sample behind the chart. Alaska governor, snapshot Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT. Day Bernadette Wilson · Polymarket Bernadette Wilson · Kalshi Tom Begich · Polymarket Tom Begich · Kalshi 7 days ago 19.5% — 1.15% — 6 days ago 19.5% 22.0% 1.15% — 5 days ago 19.5% 22.0% 1.35% — 4 days ago 19.5% 21.0% 1.25% 0.5% 3 days ago 19.5% 21.0% 1.25% 0.4% 2 days ago 19.5% 21.0% 0.60% 0.5% yesterday 24.5% 21.0% 0.05% 0.4% today 24.5% 21.5% 0.05% 0.5% afArizona governor
POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election
Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Arizona governor
Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 88.5%, Kalshi 87.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 11.5%, Kalshi 12.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Katie Hobbs 88% · Andy Biggs 12%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Katie Hobbs (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$71.2K90.5%Kalshi386K contracts · 87%/88%88.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move-2.0ppAndy Biggs (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$63.9K9.5%Kalshi354K contracts · 12%/13%12.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Arizona governor, snapshot Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT. Day Katie Hobbs · Polymarket Katie Hobbs · Kalshi Andy Biggs · Polymarket Andy Biggs · Kalshi 7 days ago 90.5% 88.0% 9.5% 12.0% 6 days ago 88.5% 88.0% 12.5% 11.0% 5 days ago 88.5% 87.0% 12.5% 11.0% 4 days ago 88.5% 85.0% 12.0% 13.0% 3 days ago 87.5% 87.0% 11.5% 14.0% 2 days ago 88.5% 88.0% 11.5% 14.0% yesterday 88.5% 87.0% 11.5% 14.0% today 88.5% 87.5% 11.5% 12.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
ajFlorida governor
POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election
Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).
Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Florida governor
Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 79.5%, Kalshi 79.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 20.5%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Byron Donalds 80% · David Jolly 21%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Byron Donalds (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$143K77.5%Kalshi1.9M contracts · 79%/80%77.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+2.0ppDavid Jolly (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$153K22.5%Kalshi1.1M contracts · 20%/21%23.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-2.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Florida governor, snapshot Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT. Day Byron Donalds · Polymarket Byron Donalds · Kalshi David Jolly · Polymarket David Jolly · Kalshi 7 days ago 77.5% 77.0% 22.5% 23.0% 6 days ago 77.5% 78.0% 22.5% 24.0% 5 days ago 77.5% 78.0% 22.5% 24.0% 4 days ago 78.5% 78.0% 22.5% 23.0% 3 days ago 78.5% 78.0% 20.5% 23.0% 2 days ago 78.5% 78.0% 20.5% 24.0% yesterday 79.5% 78.0% 20.5% 22.0% today 79.5% 79.5% 20.5% 20.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
acIowa governor
POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election
Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about three points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Iowa governor
Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.5pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 90.5%, Kalshi 89.0%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 9.5%, Kalshi 11.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Rob Sand 89% · Zach Lahn 11%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Rob Sand (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$129K86.5%Kalshi778K contracts · 88%/90%87.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move+4.0ppZach Lahn (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$111K12.5%Kalshi937K contracts · 10%/12%13.0%venue gap0.5pp7-day move-3.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Iowa governor, snapshot Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT. Day Rob Sand · Polymarket Rob Sand · Kalshi Zach Lahn · Polymarket Zach Lahn · Kalshi 7 days ago 86.5% 87% 12.5% 13% 6 days ago 88.5% 88% 12.5% 13% 5 days ago 88.5% 88% 12.5% 13% 4 days ago 86.5% 88% 12.5% 13% 3 days ago 87.5% 88% 12.5% 13% 2 days ago 90.5% 87% 9.5% 13% yesterday 90.5% 88% 9.5% 12% today 90.5% 89% 9.5% 11% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
aeMichigan governor
POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election
Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan governor
Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.1pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 93.85%, Kalshi 92.75%; John James (R): Polymarket 6.35%, Kalshi 7.45%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.1pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jocelyn Benson 93% · John James 6.9%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Jocelyn Benson (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$86.8K93.25%Kalshi86.7K contracts · 93%/93%92.90%venue gap0.3pp7-day move+0.6ppJohn James (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$171K6.35%Kalshi190K contracts · 6.8%/8.1%8.40%venue gap2.1pp7-day move0.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Michigan governor, snapshot Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT. Day Jocelyn Benson · Polymarket Jocelyn Benson · Kalshi John James · Polymarket John James · Kalshi 7 days ago 93.25% 92.90% 6.35% 8.40% 6 days ago 93.05% 93.40% 6.55% 8.10% 5 days ago 93.75% 92.50% 6.50% 8.30% 4 days ago 93.85% 91.80% 6.30% 8.30% 3 days ago 93.85% 93.30% 6.30% 7.60% 2 days ago 93.85% 93.60% 6.30% 8.00% yesterday 93.85% 93.60% 6.35% 7.40% today 93.85% 92.75% 6.35% 7.45% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
ahNew York governor
POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election
Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
New York governor
Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT
widest venue gap 1.1pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 95.35%, Kalshi 94.25%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 4.75%, Kalshi 5.85%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.1pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Kathy Hochul 94% · Bruce Blakeman 5.8%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Kathy Hochul (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$57.4K95.65%Kalshi538K contracts · 94%/95%95.10%venue gap0.6pp7-day move-0.3ppBruce Blakeman (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$129K4.5%Kalshi2.0M contracts · 5.8%/5.9%5.2%venue gap0.7pp7-day move+0.3ppEvery sample behind the chart. New York governor, snapshot Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT. Day Kathy Hochul · Polymarket Kathy Hochul · Kalshi Bruce Blakeman · Polymarket Bruce Blakeman · Kalshi 7 days ago 95.65% 95.10% 4.50% 5.20% 6 days ago 95.90% 95.10% 3.80% 5.00% 5 days ago 96.00% 95.10% 3.95% 5.80% 4 days ago 95.85% 95.30% 4.10% 5.70% 3 days ago 95.75% 95.40% 4.25% 5.60% 2 days ago 95.45% 95.00% 4.75% 5.80% yesterday 95.35% 95.30% 4.75% 6.00% today 95.35% 94.25% 4.75% 5.85% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
oOhio governor
POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election
Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).
Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Ohio governor
Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT
widest venue gap 4.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 71.5%, Kalshi 68.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 28.5%, Kalshi 32.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Amy Acton 69% · Vivek Ramaswamy 32%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Amy Acton (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$215K68.5%Kalshi1.1M contracts · 68%/69%66.0%venue gap2.5pp7-day move+3.0ppVivek Ramaswamy (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$190K32.5%Kalshi1.4M contracts · 32%/33%36.0%venue gap3.5pp7-day move-4.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Ohio governor, snapshot Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT. Day Amy Acton · Polymarket Amy Acton · Kalshi Vivek Ramaswamy · Polymarket Vivek Ramaswamy · Kalshi 7 days ago 68.5% 66.0% 32.5% 36.0% 6 days ago 69.5% 67.0% 30.5% 34.0% 5 days ago 70.5% 71.0% 30.5% 31.0% 4 days ago 67.5% 70.0% 32.5% 30.0% 3 days ago 68.5% 68.0% 31.5% 33.0% 2 days ago 71.5% 69.0% 28.5% 31.0% yesterday 71.5% 69.0% 28.5% 32.0% today 71.5% 68.5% 28.5% 32.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
aiPennsylvania governor
POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election
Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Pennsylvania governor
Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.4pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 97.85%, Kalshi 97.85%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.1%, Kalshi 1.7%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.4pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Josh Shapiro 98% · Stacy Garrity 1.7%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Josh Shapiro (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$10.7K96.85%Kalshi205K contracts · 98%/98%97.60%venue gap0.7pp7-day move+1.0ppStacy Garrity (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$46.1K2.55%Kalshi492K contracts · 1.4%/2.0%2.40%venue gap0.1pp7-day move-0.4ppEvery sample behind the chart. Pennsylvania governor, snapshot Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT. Day Josh Shapiro · Polymarket Josh Shapiro · Kalshi Stacy Garrity · Polymarket Stacy Garrity · Kalshi 7 days ago 96.85% 97.60% 2.55% 2.4% 6 days ago 97.50% 97.70% 2.30% 2.8% 5 days ago 97.60% 97.40% 2.25% 3.4% 4 days ago 97.40% 97.00% 2.35% 3.7% 3 days ago 97.90% 97.30% 1.90% 3.1% 2 days ago 98.00% 96.90% 2.10% 3.2% yesterday 97.85% 98.60% 2.10% 1.9% today 97.85% 97.85% 2.10% 1.7% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
agTexas governor
POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election
Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).
The Republican side holds a commanding lead, but no race here has moved more this week: the Democratic side is down about seven points.
Two markets, one question
Texas governor
Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT
widest venue gap 2.6pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 77.9%, Kalshi 80.5%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 22.0%, Kalshi 19.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.6pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Greg Abbott 80% · Gina Hinojosa 20%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Greg Abbott (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$301K73.7%Kalshi700K contracts · 80%/81%72.0%venue gap1.7pp7-day move+4.2ppGina Hinojosa (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$230K26%Kalshi1.5M contracts · 19%/20%30%venue gap4.0pp7-day move-4.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Texas governor, snapshot Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT. Day Greg Abbott · Polymarket Greg Abbott · Kalshi Gina Hinojosa · Polymarket Gina Hinojosa · Kalshi 7 days ago 73.70% 72.0% 26.0% 30.0% 6 days ago 75.35% 75.0% 25.5% 27.0% 5 days ago 77.90% 75.0% 22.5% 26.0% 4 days ago 79.40% 77.0% 21.0% 25.0% 3 days ago 79.05% 82.0% 20.5% 18.0% 2 days ago 78.80% 82.0% 22.0% 20.0% yesterday 78.00% 80.0% 22.0% 20.0% today 77.90% 80.5% 22.0% 19.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
vWisconsin governor
POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election
David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).
An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Wisconsin governor
Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT
widest venue gap 0.0pp- Polymarket, solid
- Kalshi, dashed
- shaded = the gap between them
Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 80.5%, Kalshi 80.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 19.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days agoMarket-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: David Crowley 81% · Tom Tiffany 20%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
David Crowley (D)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$369K81%Kalshi524K contracts · 80%/81%80%venue gap1.0pp7-day move-0.5ppTom Tiffany (R)7 days ago · party contractPolymarket$348K18.5%Kalshi819K contracts · 19%/20%20.0%venue gap1.5pp7-day move+1.0ppEvery sample behind the chart. Wisconsin governor, snapshot Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT. Day David Crowley · Polymarket David Crowley · Kalshi Tom Tiffany · Polymarket Tom Tiffany · Kalshi 7 days ago 81.0% 80.0% 18.5% 20.0% 6 days ago 81.5% 80.0% 18.5% 21.0% 5 days ago 80.5% 81.0% 18.5% 19.0% 4 days ago 80.5% 81.0% 18.5% 20.0% 3 days ago 80.5% 81.0% 19.5% 20.0% 2 days ago 80.5% 82.0% 19.5% 20.0% yesterday 80.5% 81.0% 19.5% 20.0% today 80.5% 80.5% 19.5% 19.5% These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.
