Political Guyentist

Archive edition

Markets, not pollsPolymarketKalshi

Elections

Snapshot

The Senate books are 2.0pp apart. The books do not name different leaders in any statewide race.

Return to the latest elections edition

Control of Congress

Current contract prices, stated book by book.

House

Democratic control of the House

Polymarket85.5%heavily favoured
Kalshi83.5%clearly ahead

No clear movePolymarket 0.0pp; Kalshi -0.5pp across each venue's recorded span.

No House district markets in this data.

Senate

Democrats take the Senate

Polymarket43.5%narrowly behind
Kalshi45.5%a coin flip

No clear movePolymarket 0.0pp; Kalshi +1.5pp across each venue's recorded span.

Senate seat arithmetic

Republicans hold 53 of 100; 51 is a majority. The other 47 need a net 4.

The aggregate control contract does not identify which individual seats would supply that net gain.

The current race ledger

3 Senate races, then 1 governor, each group by state, A to Z.

3 races have snapshot data but no desk note yet. They still appear in full: South Carolina Senate primary, Wisconsin governor primary, Michigan Senate primary.

Senate

  1. Iowa SenateAn open seat, with no incumbent runningJosh TurekCandidate contracts price the named people.One venue only; no cross-venue comparison.Polymarket: Not pricedKalshi: Josh Turek 43.5%

    Josh Turek

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Kalshi
    43.5%
    Recorded span
    6 samples / 5 intervals; +4.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    41.0% / 46.0%
    Volume
    7.0K contracts
    Question
    Who will win the 2026 Iowa Senate election?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  2. Michigan Senate primaryAbdul El-SayedHaley StevensCandidate contracts price the named people.Both venues name Abdul El-Sayed ahead.Polymarket: Abdul El-Sayed 96.5%Haley Stevens 3.2%Kalshi: Abdul El-Sayed 96.2%Haley Stevens 3.6%

    Abdul El-Sayed

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    96.5%
    Recorded span
    7 samples / 6 intervals; +32pp across that span
    Volume
    $683K
    Question
    Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    96.2%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +31pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    96.1% / 96.4%
    Volume
    2.8M contracts
    Question
    Will Abdul El-Sayed be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michigan?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Haley Stevens

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    3.2%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -34pp across that span
    Volume
    $457K
    Question
    Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    3.6%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -34pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    3.6% / 3.7%
    Volume
    2.8M contracts
    Question
    Will Haley Stevens be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michigan?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  3. South Carolina Senate primaryRalph NormanDarline Graham NordoneCandidate contracts price the named people.Both venues name Darline Graham Nordone ahead.Polymarket: Ralph Norman 42.0%Darline Graham Nordone 54.4%Kalshi: Ralph Norman 41.5%Darline Graham Nordone 53.5%

    Ralph Norman

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    42.0%
    Recorded span
    7 samples / 6 intervals; +22pp across that span
    Volume
    $77.2K
    Question
    Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    41.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +24pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    41.0% / 42.0%
    Volume
    502K contracts
    Question
    Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Darline Graham Nordone

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    54.4%
    Recorded span
    6 samples / 5 intervals; -16pp across that span
    Volume
    $303K
    Question
    Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    53.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -15pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    53.0% / 54.0%
    Volume
    1.3M contracts
    Question
    Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

Governors

Important statewide races; they do not determine control of Congress.

  1. Wisconsin governor primaryFrancesca HongCandidate contracts price the named people.Both venues name Francesca Hong ahead.Polymarket: Francesca Hong 96.3%Kalshi: Francesca Hong 94.8%

    Francesca Hong

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    96.3%
    Recorded span
    7 samples / 6 intervals; +15pp across that span
    Volume
    $82.6K
    Question
    Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    94.8%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +15pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    94.7% / 95.0%
    Volume
    803K contracts
    Question
    Will Francesca Hong be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
How this desk reads the two booksThe comparison basis, and today's four irreducible facts

Since the previous edition

This edition predates stable race identifiers, so it cannot be compared with another edition. Contest names drift between editions, and joining on them would report moves that never happened.

Today's four irreducible facts

Each claim keeps the two venues separate.

  1. House control

    Democratic-control contracts:

    Polymarket 85.5%Kalshi 83.5%

  2. Senate control

    Democratic-control contracts:

    Polymarket 43.5%Kalshi 45.5%

    Recorded-span changes: Polymarket 0.0pp; Kalshi +1.5pp. No clear move.

  3. Disputed leaders

    The two books name the same leader in every race on this board.

  4. Wisconsin governor primary

    Francesca Hong has the widest current candidate-side venue gap, 1.5pp.

    Polymarket 96.3%Kalshi 94.8%

Iowa Senate

Kalshi only; no cross-venue comparison.

Polymarket: Not pricedKalshi: Josh Turek 43.5%

Method and scope

  • These are trader-implied market prices, not polls and not POLI forecasts.
  • Polymarket volume is USD notional; Kalshi volume is contracts. They are not comparable, so this page does not combine or weight them.
  • Separately traded candidate contracts are independent and do not have to sum to 100%.
  • This is a dated snapshot observed Jul 31, 12:00 PM CT, not a live feed.
  • This edition contains 4 races from its published snapshots: no polls, no vote counts, and no inferred contests.
  • Edition changes publish only when stable race identity, contest kind, market scope, and venue identity make subtraction safe.

Election archive

  1. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  2. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  3. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  4. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  5. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  6. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  7. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  8. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  9. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  10. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  11. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  12. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  13. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  14. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.