Political Guyentist

Archive edition

Markets, not pollsPolymarketKalshi

Elections

Snapshot

The Senate books are 2.0pp apart. They name different leaders in 3 statewide races: Ohio governor and Texas Senate and Alaska Senate.

Return to the latest elections edition

Control of Congress

Current contract prices, stated book by book.

House

Democratic control of the House

Polymarket87.5%heavily favoured
Kalshi85.5%heavily favoured

No clear movePolymarket 0.0pp; Kalshi +1.5pp across each venue's recorded span.

No House district markets in this data.

Senate

Democrats take the Senate

Polymarket50.5%a coin flip
Kalshi48.5%a coin flip

No clear movePolymarket 0.0pp; Kalshi +2.5pp across each venue's recorded span.

Senate seat arithmetic

Republicans hold 53 of 100; 51 is a majority. The other 47 need a net 4.

The aggregate control contract does not identify which individual seats would supply that net gain.

The current race ledger

10 Senate races, then 11 governors, each group by state, A to Z.

11 races have snapshot data but no desk note yet. They still appear in full: North Carolina Senate, Georgia Senate, Nebraska Senate, New Hampshire Senate, Iowa governor, Alaska governor, Michigan governor, Arizona governor, Texas governor, New York governor, Pennsylvania governor.

Senate

  1. Alaska SenateA sitting Republican senator is defending this seatMary PeltolaDan SullivanCandidate contracts price the named people.The books name different leaders.Polymarket: Mary Peltola 48.5%Dan Sullivan 51.0%Kalshi: Mary Peltola 53.5%Dan Sullivan 46.0%

    Mary Peltola

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    48.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -3.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $198K
    Question
    Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    53.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -3.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    53.0% / 54.0%
    Volume
    52.8K contracts
    Question
    Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska Senate race?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Dan Sullivan

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    51.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +2.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $118K
    Question
    Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    46.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +2.0pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    44.0% / 48.0%
    Volume
    54.0K contracts
    Question
    Will Dan Sullivan win the 2026 Alaska Senate race?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  2. Georgia SenateJon OssoffMike CollinsParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Jon Ossoff ahead.Polymarket: Jon Ossoff 93.0%Mike Collins 7.5%Kalshi: Jon Ossoff 91.9%Mike Collins 8.3%

    Jon Ossoff

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Jon Ossoff personally.

    Polymarket
    93.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $40.3K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    91.9%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.1pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    91.5% / 92.3%
    Volume
    294K contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in Georgia?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Mike Collins

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Mike Collins personally.

    Polymarket
    7.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.3pp across that span
    Volume
    $66.8K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    8.3%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.4pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    8.1% / 8.6%
    Volume
    751K contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Georgia?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  3. Iowa SenateAn open seat, with no incumbent runningAshley HinsonJosh TurekParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Ashley Hinson ahead.Polymarket: Ashley Hinson 59.5%Josh Turek 40.5%Kalshi: Ashley Hinson 55.5%Josh Turek 43.5%

    Ashley Hinson

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Ashley Hinson personally.

    Polymarket
    59.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +3.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $104K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    55.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -3.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    55.0% / 56.0%
    Volume
    871K contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Iowa?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Josh Turek

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Josh Turek personally.

    Polymarket
    40.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -3.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $102K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    43.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +2.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    43.0% / 44.0%
    Volume
    758K contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in Iowa?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  4. Maine SenateDemocrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrewTroy JacksonSusan CollinsParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Troy Jackson ahead.Polymarket: Troy Jackson 69.5%Susan Collins 29.5%Kalshi: Troy Jackson 65.5%Susan Collins 35.5%

    Troy Jackson

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Troy Jackson personally.

    Polymarket
    69.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $717K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    65.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    65.0% / 66.0%
    Volume
    1.8M contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in Maine?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Susan Collins

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Susan Collins personally.

    Polymarket
    29.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $432K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    35.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    35.0% / 36.0%
    Volume
    2.1M contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Maine?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  5. Michigan SenateAbdul El-SayedMike RogersParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Abdul El-Sayed ahead.Polymarket: Abdul El-Sayed 58.5%Mike Rogers 41.5%Kalshi: Abdul El-Sayed 57.5%Mike Rogers 42.5%

    Abdul El-Sayed

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Abdul El-Sayed personally.

    Polymarket
    58.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $239K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    57.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +2.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    57.0% / 58.0%
    Volume
    802K contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in Michigan?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Mike Rogers

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Mike Rogers personally.

    Polymarket
    41.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $220K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    42.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -3.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    42.0% / 43.0%
    Volume
    1.1M contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Michigan?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  6. Nebraska SenatePete RickettsDan OsbornCandidate contracts price the named people.Both venues name Pete Ricketts ahead.Polymarket: Pete Ricketts 71.5%Dan Osborn 28.5%Kalshi: Pete Ricketts 70.5%Dan Osborn 29.5%

    Pete Ricketts

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Pete Ricketts personally.

    Polymarket
    71.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $79.2K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    70.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    70.0% / 71.0%
    Volume
    235K contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Nebraska?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Dan Osborn

    Independent · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    28.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $24.2K
    Question
    Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    29.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    29.0% / 30.0%
    Volume
    331K contracts
    Question
    Will Dan Osborn (as an independent)s win the Senate race in Nebraska?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  7. New Hampshire SenateChris PappasJohn E. SununuParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Chris Pappas ahead.Polymarket: Chris Pappas 85.5%John E. Sununu 14.5%Kalshi: Chris Pappas 88.5%John E. Sununu 12.5%

    Chris Pappas

    Democratic · Provisional nominee · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Chris Pappas personally.

    The snapshot identifies Chris Pappas as a primary leader, not a settled nominee.

    Polymarket
    85.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $27.9K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    88.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    87.0% / 90.0%
    Volume
    70.2K contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in New Hampshire?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
    New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary: 6 candidates, Kalshi only

    This nomination field sits beneath Chris Pappas; it is not a second governor race.

    1. Chris Pappas
      Kalshi
      96.0%
      Recorded span
      3 samples / 2 intervals; -0.0pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      92.7% / 99.2%
      Volume
      9.4K contracts
      Question
      Will Chris Pappas be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    2. Karishma Manzur
      Kalshi
      4.3%
      Recorded span
      4 samples / 3 intervals; +0.3pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      2.0% / 6.5%
      Volume
      6.2K contracts
      Question
      Will Karishma Manzur be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    3. Maggie Goodlander
      Kalshi
      1.3%
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 2.6%
      Volume
      33 contracts
      Question
      Will Maggie Goodlander be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    4. Annie Kuster
      Kalshi
      0.5%
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 1.0%
      Volume
      102 contracts
      Question
      Will Annie Kuster be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    5. Jared Sullivan
      Kalshi
      0.5%
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 1.0%
      Volume
      3 contracts
      Question
      Will Jared Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    6. Stefany Shaheen
      Kalshi
      0.5%
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 1.0%
      Volume
      208 contracts
      Question
      Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source

    John E. Sununu

    Republican · Provisional nominee · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not John E. Sununu personally.

    The snapshot identifies John E. Sununu as a primary leader, not a settled nominee.

    Polymarket
    14.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $15.9K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    12.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    12.0% / 13.0%
    Volume
    107K contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in New Hampshire?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
    New Hampshire Republican Senate primary: 4 candidates, Kalshi only

    This nomination field sits beneath John E. Sununu; it is not a second governor race.

    1. John E. Sununu
      Kalshi
      95.8%
      Recorded span
      7 samples / 6 intervals; -1.7pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      92.5% / 99.0%
      Volume
      12.7K contracts
      Question
      Will John E. Sununu be the Republican nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    2. Scott Brown
      Kalshi
      3.5%
      Recorded span
      5 samples / 4 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      1.0% / 6.0%
      Volume
      21.4K contracts
      Question
      Will Scott Brown be the Republican nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    3. Dan Innis
      Kalshi
      1.1%
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 2.3%
      Volume
      37 contracts
      Question
      Will Dan Innis be the Republican nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    4. Chris Sununu
      Kalshi
      0.7%
      Recorded span
      2 samples / 1 intervals; -0.7pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 1.4%
      Volume
      22.6K contracts
      Question
      Will Chris Sununu be the Republican nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
  8. North Carolina SenateRoy CooperMichael WhatleyParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Roy Cooper ahead.Polymarket: Roy Cooper 91.5%Michael Whatley 9.5%Kalshi: Roy Cooper 92.5%Michael Whatley 8.3%

    Roy Cooper

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Roy Cooper personally.

    Polymarket
    91.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $35.3K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    92.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.3pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    92.2% / 92.8%
    Volume
    1.2M contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in North Carolina?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Michael Whatley

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Michael Whatley personally.

    Polymarket
    9.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $54.5K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    8.3%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.2pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    8.2% / 8.3%
    Volume
    176K contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in North Carolina?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  9. Ohio SenateA special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate termSherrod BrownJon HustedParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Sherrod Brown ahead.Polymarket: Sherrod Brown 52.5%Jon Husted 46.5%Kalshi: Sherrod Brown 52.5%Jon Husted 48.5%

    Sherrod Brown

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Sherrod Brown personally.

    Polymarket
    52.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $99.6K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    52.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +2.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    52.0% / 53.0%
    Volume
    768K contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in Ohio?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Jon Husted

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Jon Husted personally.

    Polymarket
    46.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -2.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $74.1K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    48.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -2.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    48.0% / 49.0%
    Volume
    1.3M contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Ohio?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  10. Texas SenateKen PaxtonJames TalaricoParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.The books name different leaders.Polymarket: Ken Paxton 49.5%James Talarico 51.5%Kalshi: Ken Paxton 51.5%James Talarico 48.5%

    Ken Paxton

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Ken Paxton personally.

    Polymarket
    49.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +2.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $429K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    51.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    51.0% / 52.0%
    Volume
    4.9M contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    James Talarico

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not James Talarico personally.

    Polymarket
    51.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $390K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    48.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    48.0% / 49.0%
    Volume
    3.8M contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in Texas?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

Governors

Important statewide races; they do not determine control of Congress.

  1. Alaska governorTom BegichBernadette WilsonCandidate contracts price the named people.Both venues name Tom Begich ahead.Polymarket: Tom Begich 49.0%Bernadette Wilson 25.5%Kalshi: Tom Begich 49.5%Bernadette Wilson 21.0%

    Tom Begich

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    49.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $143K
    Question
    Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    49.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +22pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    49.0% / 50.0%
    Volume
    54.7K contracts
    Question
    Who will win the governorship in Alaska?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Bernadette Wilson

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    25.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -3.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $164K
    Question
    Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    21.0%
    Recorded span
    5 samples / 4 intervals; -6.0pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    19.0% / 23.0%
    Volume
    28.8K contracts
    Question
    Who will win the governorship in Alaska?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  2. Arizona governorKatie HobbsAndy BiggsParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Katie Hobbs ahead.Polymarket: Katie Hobbs 87.0%Andy Biggs 13.5%Kalshi: Katie Hobbs 87.5%Andy Biggs 13.5%

    Katie Hobbs

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Katie Hobbs personally.

    Polymarket
    87.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $30.8K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    87.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +3.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    86.0% / 89.0%
    Volume
    284K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Arizona
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Andy Biggs

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Andy Biggs personally.

    Polymarket
    13.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $35.8K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    13.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    13.0% / 14.0%
    Volume
    214K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Arizona
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  3. Georgia governorGeorgia's governor's office is openKeisha Lance BottomsRick JacksonParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Keisha Lance Bottoms ahead.Polymarket: Keisha Lance Bottoms 62.5%Rick Jackson 37.5%Kalshi: Keisha Lance Bottoms 59.5%Rick Jackson 40.5%

    Keisha Lance Bottoms

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Keisha Lance Bottoms personally.

    Polymarket
    62.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +4.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $30.0K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    59.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +6.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    59.0% / 60.0%
    Volume
    252K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Georgia
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Rick Jackson

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Rick Jackson personally.

    Polymarket
    37.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -4.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $33.5K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    40.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -5.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    40.0% / 41.0%
    Volume
    309K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Georgia
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  4. Iowa governorRob SandZach LahnParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Rob Sand ahead.Polymarket: Rob Sand 72.5%Zach Lahn 27.5%Kalshi: Rob Sand 74.5%Zach Lahn 26.5%

    Rob Sand

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Rob Sand personally.

    Polymarket
    72.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +2.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $25.1K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    74.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +9.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    74.0% / 75.0%
    Volume
    185K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Iowa
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Zach Lahn

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Zach Lahn personally.

    Polymarket
    27.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $34.9K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    26.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -9.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    26.0% / 27.0%
    Volume
    209K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Iowa
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  5. Michigan governorJocelyn BensonJohn JamesParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Jocelyn Benson ahead.Polymarket: Jocelyn Benson 85.5%John James 15.0%Kalshi: Jocelyn Benson 86.5%John James 15.5%

    Jocelyn Benson

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Jocelyn Benson personally.

    Polymarket
    85.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $47.1K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    86.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    85.0% / 88.0%
    Volume
    71.4K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Michigan
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    John James

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not John James personally.

    Polymarket
    15.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $150K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    15.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    14.0% / 17.0%
    Volume
    112K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Michigan
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  6. Nevada governorNevada's Republican governor is defending his jobJoe LombardoAaron FordParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Joe Lombardo ahead.Polymarket: Joe Lombardo 63.0%Aaron Ford 36.5%Kalshi: Joe Lombardo 60.5%Aaron Ford 38.5%

    Joe Lombardo

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Joe Lombardo personally.

    Polymarket
    63.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $47.0K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    60.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +14pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    60.0% / 61.0%
    Volume
    192K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Nevada
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Aaron Ford

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Aaron Ford personally.

    Polymarket
    36.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +4.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $21.0K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    38.5%
    Recorded span
    7 samples / 6 intervals; -18pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    38.0% / 39.0%
    Volume
    458K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Nevada
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  7. New York governorKathy HochulBruce BlakemanParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Kathy Hochul ahead.Polymarket: Kathy Hochul 94.5%Bruce Blakeman 5.5%Kalshi: Kathy Hochul 93.3%Bruce Blakeman 6.9%

    Kathy Hochul

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Kathy Hochul personally.

    Polymarket
    94.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $46.9K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    93.3%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -2.2pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    93.2% / 93.5%
    Volume
    208K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in New York
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Bruce Blakeman

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Bruce Blakeman personally.

    Polymarket
    5.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $49.1K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    6.9%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.6pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    6.8% / 6.9%
    Volume
    485K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in New York
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  8. Ohio governorOhio is choosing a new governorAmy ActonVivek RamaswamyParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.The books name different leaders.Polymarket: Amy Acton 48.0%Vivek Ramaswamy 48.5%Kalshi: Amy Acton 50.5%Vivek Ramaswamy 47.5%

    Amy Acton

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Amy Acton personally.

    Polymarket
    48.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -5.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $75.3K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    50.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    50.0% / 51.0%
    Volume
    409K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Ohio
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Vivek Ramaswamy

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Vivek Ramaswamy personally.

    Polymarket
    48.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +2.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $93.2K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    47.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -3.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    47.0% / 48.0%
    Volume
    624K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Ohio
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  9. Pennsylvania governorJosh ShapiroStacy GarrityParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Josh Shapiro ahead.Polymarket: Josh Shapiro 95.5%Stacy Garrity 5.5%Kalshi: Josh Shapiro 93.9%Stacy Garrity 5.8%

    Josh Shapiro

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Josh Shapiro personally.

    Polymarket
    95.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $7.3K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Pennsylvania governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    93.9%
    Recorded span
    4 samples / 3 intervals; +0.1pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    92.3% / 95.5%
    Volume
    67.8K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Pennsylvania
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Stacy Garrity

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Stacy Garrity personally.

    Polymarket
    5.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $12.9K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Pennsylvania governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    5.8%
    Recorded span
    4 samples / 3 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    3.8% / 7.8%
    Volume
    351K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Pennsylvania
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  10. Texas governorGreg AbbottGina HinojosaParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Greg Abbott ahead.Polymarket: Greg Abbott 86.0%Gina Hinojosa 14.5%Kalshi: Greg Abbott 87.5%Gina Hinojosa 13.5%

    Greg Abbott

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Greg Abbott personally.

    Polymarket
    86.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.9pp across that span
    Volume
    $25.1K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    87.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    87.0% / 88.0%
    Volume
    117K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Texas
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Gina Hinojosa

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Gina Hinojosa personally.

    Polymarket
    14.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $31.3K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    13.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    13.0% / 14.0%
    Volume
    514K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Texas
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  11. Wisconsin governorAn open governorshipDavid CrowleyTom TiffanyParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name David Crowley ahead.Polymarket: David Crowley 76.5%Tom Tiffany 23.5%Kalshi: David Crowley 74.5%Tom Tiffany 26.5%

    David Crowley

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not David Crowley personally.

    Polymarket
    76.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +34pp across that span
    Volume
    $93.1K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    74.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +36pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    74.0% / 75.0%
    Volume
    395K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Wisconsin
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Tom Tiffany

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Tom Tiffany personally.

    Polymarket
    23.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -35pp across that span
    Volume
    $176K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    26.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -37pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    26.0% / 27.0%
    Volume
    417K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Wisconsin
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
How this desk reads the two booksThe comparison basis, and today's four irreducible facts

Since the previous edition

Comparable with the 2026-08-11 edition — the first pair this desk can subtract.

Today's four irreducible facts

Each claim keeps the two venues separate.

  1. House control

    Democratic-control contracts:

    Polymarket 87.5%Kalshi 85.5%

  2. Senate control

    Democratic-control contracts:

    Polymarket 50.5%Kalshi 48.5%

    Recorded-span changes: Polymarket 0.0pp; Kalshi +2.5pp. No clear move.

  3. Alaska Senate — and 2 more

    The books name different leaders. The books also disagree in Texas Senate, Ohio governor.

    Polymarket Dan Sullivan leadsKalshi Mary Peltola leadsPolymarket: Mary Peltola 48.5%Dan Sullivan 51.0%Kalshi: Mary Peltola 53.5%Dan Sullivan 46.0%

  4. Maine Senate

    Susan Collins has the widest current candidate-side venue gap, 6.0pp.

    Polymarket 29.5%Kalshi 35.5%

Cross-venue coverage

Every race on this board is priced by both books.

Method and scope

  • These are trader-implied market prices, not polls and not POLI forecasts.
  • Polymarket volume is USD notional; Kalshi volume is contracts. They are not comparable, so this page does not combine or weight them.
  • Separately traded candidate contracts are independent and do not have to sum to 100%.
  • This is a dated snapshot observed Aug 17, 12:29 PM CT, not a live feed.
  • This edition contains 21 races from its published snapshots: no polls, no vote counts, and no inferred contests.
  • Edition changes publish only when stable race identity, contest kind, market scope, and venue identity make subtraction safe.

Election archive

  1. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  2. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  3. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  4. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  5. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  6. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  7. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  8. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  9. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  10. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  11. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  12. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  13. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  14. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.