Political Guyentist

Archive edition

Markets, not pollsPolymarketKalshi

Elections

Snapshot

The Senate books are 1.0pp apart and move in opposite recorded directions. They name different leaders in 2 statewide races: Ohio governor and Ohio Senate.

Return to the latest elections edition

Control of Congress

Current contract prices, stated book by book.

House

Democratic control of the House

Polymarket86.5%heavily favoured
Kalshi84.5%clearly ahead

No clear movePolymarket 0.0pp; Kalshi +1.5pp across each venue's recorded span.

No House district markets in this data.

Senate

Democrats take the Senate

Polymarket46.5%a coin flip
Kalshi45.5%a coin flip

No clear movePolymarket +2.0pp; Kalshi -1.5pp across each venue's recorded span.

Senate seat arithmetic

Republicans hold 53 of 100; 51 is a majority. The other 47 need a net 4.

The aggregate control contract does not identify which individual seats would supply that net gain.

The current race ledger

10 Senate races, then 11 governors, each group by state, A to Z.

11 races have snapshot data but no desk note yet. They still appear in full: North Carolina Senate, Georgia Senate, Nebraska Senate, New Hampshire Senate, Iowa governor, Alaska governor, Michigan governor, Arizona governor, Texas governor, New York governor, Pennsylvania governor.

Senate

  1. Alaska SenateA sitting Republican senator is defending this seatMary PeltolaDan SullivanCandidate contracts price the named people.Both venues name Mary Peltola ahead.Polymarket: Mary Peltola 53.5%Dan Sullivan 48.5%Kalshi: Mary Peltola 54.5%Dan Sullivan 46.0%

    Mary Peltola

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    53.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +2.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $188K
    Question
    Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    54.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -2.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    52.0% / 57.0%
    Volume
    48.9K contracts
    Question
    Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska Senate race?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Dan Sullivan

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    48.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $114K
    Question
    Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    46.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +3.0pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    44.0% / 48.0%
    Volume
    53.2K contracts
    Question
    Will Dan Sullivan win the 2026 Alaska Senate race?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  2. Georgia SenateJon OssoffMike CollinsParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Jon Ossoff ahead.Polymarket: Jon Ossoff 92.5%Mike Collins 4.9%Kalshi: Jon Ossoff 91.7%Mike Collins 8.2%

    Jon Ossoff

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Jon Ossoff personally.

    Polymarket
    92.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $38.5K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    91.7%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    91.3% / 92.0%
    Volume
    289K contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in Georgia?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Mike Collins

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Mike Collins personally.

    Polymarket
    4.9%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -3.4pp across that span
    Volume
    $64.3K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    8.2%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.2pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    7.9% / 8.6%
    Volume
    732K contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Georgia?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  3. Iowa SenateAn open seat, with no incumbent runningAshley HinsonJosh TurekCandidate contracts price the named people.One venue only; no cross-venue comparison.Polymarket: Not pricedKalshi: Ashley Hinson 66.0%Josh Turek 34.5%

    Ashley Hinson

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Kalshi
    66.0%
    Recorded span
    6 samples / 5 intervals; +7.0pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    65.0% / 67.0%
    Volume
    4.3K contracts
    Question
    Who will win the 2026 Iowa Senate election?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Josh Turek

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Kalshi
    34.5%
    Recorded span
    6 samples / 5 intervals; -6.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    33.0% / 36.0%
    Volume
    8.1K contracts
    Question
    Who will win the 2026 Iowa Senate election?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  4. Maine SenateDemocrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrewTroy JacksonSusan CollinsParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Troy Jackson ahead.Polymarket: Troy Jackson 68.5%Susan Collins 31.5%Kalshi: Troy Jackson 64.5%Susan Collins 35.5%

    Troy Jackson

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Troy Jackson personally.

    Polymarket
    68.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $711K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    64.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    64.0% / 65.0%
    Volume
    1.8M contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in Maine?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Susan Collins

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Susan Collins personally.

    Polymarket
    31.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -2.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $421K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    35.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    35.0% / 36.0%
    Volume
    2.0M contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Maine?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  5. Michigan SenateAbdul El-SayedMike RogersParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Abdul El-Sayed ahead.Polymarket: Abdul El-Sayed 58.5%Mike Rogers 42.5%Kalshi: Abdul El-Sayed 54.5%Mike Rogers 45.5%

    Abdul El-Sayed

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Abdul El-Sayed personally.

    Polymarket
    58.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -2.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $152K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    54.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -9.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    54.0% / 55.0%
    Volume
    407K contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in Michigan?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Mike Rogers

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Mike Rogers personally.

    Polymarket
    42.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +2.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $142K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    45.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +9.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    45.0% / 46.0%
    Volume
    742K contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Michigan?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  6. Nebraska SenatePete RickettsDan OsbornCandidate contracts price the named people.Both venues name Pete Ricketts ahead.Polymarket: Pete Ricketts 72.5%Dan Osborn 26.5%Kalshi: Pete Ricketts 71.5%Dan Osborn 28.5%

    Pete Ricketts

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Pete Ricketts personally.

    Polymarket
    72.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $78.7K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    71.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    71.0% / 72.0%
    Volume
    214K contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Nebraska?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Dan Osborn

    Independent · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    26.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $23.3K
    Question
    Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    28.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    28.0% / 29.0%
    Volume
    325K contracts
    Question
    Will Dan Osborn (as an independent)s win the Senate race in Nebraska?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  7. New Hampshire SenateChris PappasJohn E. SununuParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Chris Pappas ahead.Polymarket: Chris Pappas 85.5%John E. Sununu 14.5%Kalshi: Chris Pappas 88.5%John E. Sununu 11.5%

    Chris Pappas

    Democratic · Provisional nominee · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Chris Pappas personally.

    The snapshot identifies Chris Pappas as a primary leader, not a settled nominee.

    Polymarket
    85.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $25.7K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    88.5%
    Recorded span
    5 samples / 4 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    88.0% / 89.0%
    Volume
    65.1K contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in New Hampshire?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
    New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary: 6 candidates, Kalshi only

    This nomination field sits beneath Chris Pappas; it is not a second governor race.

    1. Chris Pappas
      Kalshi
      97.6%
      Recorded span
      7 samples / 6 intervals; +1.9pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      96.0% / 99.2%
      Volume
      9.0K contracts
      Question
      Will Chris Pappas be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    2. Karishma Manzur
      Kalshi
      2.5%
      Recorded span
      7 samples / 6 intervals; -7.4pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      2.0% / 3.0%
      Volume
      6.1K contracts
      Question
      Will Karishma Manzur be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    3. Maggie Goodlander
      Kalshi
      0.9%
      Recorded span
      2 samples / 1 intervals; -0.6pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 1.7%
      Volume
      33 contracts
      Question
      Will Maggie Goodlander be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    4. Annie Kuster
      Kalshi
      0.5%
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 1.0%
      Volume
      102 contracts
      Question
      Will Annie Kuster be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    5. Jared Sullivan
      Kalshi
      0.5%
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 1.0%
      Volume
      3 contracts
      Question
      Will Jared Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    6. Stefany Shaheen
      Kalshi
      0.5%
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 1.0%
      Volume
      208 contracts
      Question
      Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source

    John E. Sununu

    Republican · Provisional nominee · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not John E. Sununu personally.

    The snapshot identifies John E. Sununu as a primary leader, not a settled nominee.

    Polymarket
    14.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -2.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $15.7K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    11.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -2.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    11.0% / 12.0%
    Volume
    96.4K contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in New Hampshire?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
    New Hampshire Republican Senate primary: 4 candidates, Kalshi only

    This nomination field sits beneath John E. Sununu; it is not a second governor race.

    1. John E. Sununu
      Kalshi
      96.2%
      Recorded span
      6 samples / 5 intervals; +0.2pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      95.1% / 97.4%
      Volume
      12.4K contracts
      Question
      Will John E. Sununu be the Republican nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    2. Scott Brown
      Kalshi
      4.8%
      Recorded span
      5 samples / 4 intervals; -1.1pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      4.0% / 5.5%
      Volume
      21.3K contracts
      Question
      Will Scott Brown be the Republican nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    3. Chris Sununu
      Kalshi
      0.7%
      Recorded span
      2 samples / 1 intervals; -0.3pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 1.4%
      Volume
      22.6K contracts
      Question
      Will Chris Sununu be the Republican nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    4. Dan Innis
      Kalshi
      0.7%
      Recorded span
      2 samples / 1 intervals; -0.3pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 1.4%
      Volume
      37 contracts
      Question
      Will Dan Innis be the Republican nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
  8. North Carolina SenateRoy CooperMichael WhatleyParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Roy Cooper ahead.Polymarket: Roy Cooper 90.5%Michael Whatley 10.5%Kalshi: Roy Cooper 91.1%Michael Whatley 8.9%

    Roy Cooper

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Roy Cooper personally.

    Polymarket
    90.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $34.7K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    91.1%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    91.0% / 91.2%
    Volume
    1.2M contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in North Carolina?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Michael Whatley

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Michael Whatley personally.

    Polymarket
    10.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $53.9K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    8.9%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.0pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    8.4% / 9.5%
    Volume
    156K contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in North Carolina?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  9. Ohio SenateA special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate termSherrod BrownJon HustedParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.The books name different leaders.Polymarket: Sherrod Brown 51.5%Jon Husted 49.5%Kalshi: Sherrod Brown 49.5%Jon Husted 50.5%

    Sherrod Brown

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Sherrod Brown personally.

    Polymarket
    51.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $70.8K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    49.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -4.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    49.0% / 50.0%
    Volume
    593K contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in Ohio?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Jon Husted

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Jon Husted personally.

    Polymarket
    49.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $58.2K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    50.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +2.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    50.0% / 51.0%
    Volume
    477K contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Ohio?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  10. Texas SenateKen PaxtonJames TalaricoParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues report matching prices.Polymarket: Ken Paxton 50.5%James Talarico 49.5%Kalshi: Ken Paxton 50.5%James Talarico 49.5%

    Ken Paxton

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Ken Paxton personally.

    Polymarket
    50.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $374K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    50.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -4.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    50.0% / 51.0%
    Volume
    4.3M contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    James Talarico

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not James Talarico personally.

    Polymarket
    49.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $313K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    49.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +2.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    49.0% / 50.0%
    Volume
    3.4M contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in Texas?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

Governors

Important statewide races; they do not determine control of Congress.

  1. Alaska governorBernadette WilsonTom BegichCandidate contracts price the named people.Both venues name Bernadette Wilson ahead.Polymarket: Bernadette Wilson 33.0%Tom Begich 29.0%Kalshi: Bernadette Wilson 28.5%Tom Begich 26.0%

    Bernadette Wilson

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    33.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +5.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $161K
    Question
    Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    28.5%
    Recorded span
    7 samples / 6 intervals; +4.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    27.0% / 30.0%
    Volume
    27.4K contracts
    Question
    Who will win the governorship in Alaska?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Tom Begich

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    29.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +2.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $138K
    Question
    Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    26.0%
    Recorded span
    5 samples / 4 intervals; +3.0pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    25.0% / 27.0%
    Volume
    38.1K contracts
    Question
    Who will win the governorship in Alaska?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  2. Arizona governorKatie HobbsAndy BiggsParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Katie Hobbs ahead.Polymarket: Katie Hobbs 84.0%Andy Biggs 15.0%Kalshi: Katie Hobbs 85.0%Andy Biggs 14.5%

    Katie Hobbs

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Katie Hobbs personally.

    Polymarket
    84.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +5.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $30.0K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    85.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +4.0pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    84.0% / 86.0%
    Volume
    276K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Arizona
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Andy Biggs

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Andy Biggs personally.

    Polymarket
    15.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -5.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $35.8K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    14.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -6.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    14.0% / 15.0%
    Volume
    204K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Arizona
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  3. Georgia governorGeorgia's governor's office is openKeisha Lance BottomsRick JacksonParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Keisha Lance Bottoms ahead.Polymarket: Keisha Lance Bottoms 58.5%Rick Jackson 41.5%Kalshi: Keisha Lance Bottoms 53.5%Rick Jackson 47.0%

    Keisha Lance Bottoms

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Keisha Lance Bottoms personally.

    Polymarket
    58.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $29.3K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    53.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -5.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    53.0% / 54.0%
    Volume
    237K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Georgia
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Rick Jackson

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Rick Jackson personally.

    Polymarket
    41.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $33.1K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    47.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +4.0pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    46.0% / 48.0%
    Volume
    266K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Georgia
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  4. Iowa governorRob SandZach LahnParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Rob Sand ahead.Polymarket: Rob Sand 69.0%Zach Lahn 31.0%Kalshi: Rob Sand 64.5%Zach Lahn 35.5%

    Rob Sand

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Rob Sand personally.

    Polymarket
    69.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $23.5K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    64.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    64.0% / 65.0%
    Volume
    163K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Iowa
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Zach Lahn

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Zach Lahn personally.

    Polymarket
    31.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $32.8K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    35.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    35.0% / 36.0%
    Volume
    172K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Iowa
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  5. Michigan governorJocelyn BensonJohn JamesParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Jocelyn Benson ahead.Polymarket: Jocelyn Benson 83.5%John James 15.5%Kalshi: Jocelyn Benson 84.5%John James 16.0%

    Jocelyn Benson

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Jocelyn Benson personally.

    Polymarket
    83.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $44.7K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    84.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    84.0% / 85.0%
    Volume
    69.9K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Michigan
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    John James

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not John James personally.

    Polymarket
    15.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $149K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    16.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    15.0% / 17.0%
    Volume
    108K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Michigan
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  6. Nevada governorNevada's Republican governor is defending his jobAaron FordJoe LombardoParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Aaron Ford ahead.Polymarket: Aaron Ford 52.0%Joe Lombardo 48.0%Kalshi: Aaron Ford 55.0%Joe Lombardo 45.5%

    Aaron Ford

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Aaron Ford personally.

    Polymarket
    52.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $11.8K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    55.0%
    Recorded span
    7 samples / 6 intervals; -2.0pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    53.0% / 57.0%
    Volume
    108K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Nevada
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Joe Lombardo

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Joe Lombardo personally.

    Polymarket
    48.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $33.5K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    45.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    45.0% / 46.0%
    Volume
    162K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Nevada
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  7. New York governorKathy HochulBruce BlakemanParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Kathy Hochul ahead.Polymarket: Kathy Hochul 93.5%Bruce Blakeman 6.5%Kalshi: Kathy Hochul 95.1%Bruce Blakeman 4.9%

    Kathy Hochul

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Kathy Hochul personally.

    Polymarket
    93.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $44.9K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    95.1%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +2.2pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    94.8% / 95.4%
    Volume
    181K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in New York
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Bruce Blakeman

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Bruce Blakeman personally.

    Polymarket
    6.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $44.3K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    4.9%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -3.7pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    4.6% / 5.2%
    Volume
    389K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in New York
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  8. Ohio governorOhio is choosing a new governorAmy ActonVivek RamaswamyParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.The books name different leaders.Polymarket: Amy Acton 52.0%Vivek Ramaswamy 48.0%Kalshi: Amy Acton 49.5%Vivek Ramaswamy 50.5%

    Amy Acton

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Amy Acton personally.

    Polymarket
    52.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +8.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $63.9K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    49.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    49.0% / 50.0%
    Volume
    384K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Ohio
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Vivek Ramaswamy

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Vivek Ramaswamy personally.

    Polymarket
    48.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -8.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $59.4K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    50.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    50.0% / 51.0%
    Volume
    583K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Ohio
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  9. Pennsylvania governorJosh ShapiroStacy GarrityParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Josh Shapiro ahead.Polymarket: Josh Shapiro 95.5%Stacy Garrity 5.5%Kalshi: Josh Shapiro 94.1%Stacy Garrity 5.9%

    Josh Shapiro

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Josh Shapiro personally.

    Polymarket
    95.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $7.3K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Pennsylvania governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    94.1%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.6pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    93.4% / 94.8%
    Volume
    47.3K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Pennsylvania
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Stacy Garrity

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Stacy Garrity personally.

    Polymarket
    5.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $12.9K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Pennsylvania governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    5.9%
    Recorded span
    7 samples / 6 intervals; -2.1pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    5.8% / 6.0%
    Volume
    351K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Pennsylvania
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  10. Texas governorGreg AbbottGina HinojosaParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Greg Abbott ahead.Polymarket: Greg Abbott 87.2%Gina Hinojosa 13.0%Kalshi: Greg Abbott 88.5%Gina Hinojosa 12.5%

    Greg Abbott

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Greg Abbott personally.

    Polymarket
    87.2%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -2.3pp across that span
    Volume
    $20.5K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    88.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +5.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    88.0% / 89.0%
    Volume
    108K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Texas
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Gina Hinojosa

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Gina Hinojosa personally.

    Polymarket
    13.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +2.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $22.7K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    12.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -5.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    12.0% / 13.0%
    Volume
    480K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Texas
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  11. Wisconsin governorAn open governorshipTom TiffanyFrancesca HongParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Tom Tiffany ahead.Polymarket: Tom Tiffany 59.0%Francesca Hong 39.5%Kalshi: Tom Tiffany 61.5%Francesca Hong 38.5%

    Tom Tiffany

    Republican · Provisional nominee · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Tom Tiffany personally.

    The snapshot identifies Tom Tiffany as a primary leader, not a settled nominee.

    Polymarket
    59.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +2.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $77.3K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    61.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +9.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    61.0% / 62.0%
    Volume
    177K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Wisconsin
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
    Wisconsin Republican primary: 8 candidates, Kalshi only

    This nomination field sits beneath Tom Tiffany; it is not a second governor race.

    1. Tom Tiffany
      Kalshi
      99.8%
      Recorded span
      5 samples / 4 intervals; +1.5pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      99.5% / 100.0%
      Volume
      19.5K contracts
      Question
      Will Tom Tiffany be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    2. Andy Manske
      Kalshi
      0.5%
      Recorded span
      7 samples / 6 intervals; -1.5pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 1.0%
      Volume
      4.0K contracts
      Question
      Will Andy Manske be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    3. Bryan Steil
      Kalshi
      0.05%
      Recorded span
      2 samples / 1 intervals; -0.1pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 0.1%
      Volume
      1.5K contracts
      Question
      Will Bryan Steil be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    4. Eric Hovde
      Kalshi
      0.05%
      Recorded span
      2 samples / 1 intervals; -0.1pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 0.1%
      Volume
      1.4K contracts
      Question
      Will Eric Hovde be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    5. Josh Schoemann
      Kalshi
      0.05%
      Recorded span
      2 samples / 1 intervals; -0.1pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 0.1%
      Volume
      1.5K contracts
      Question
      Will Josh Schoemann be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    6. Patrick Testin
      Kalshi
      0.05%
      Recorded span
      2 samples / 1 intervals; -0.1pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 0.1%
      Volume
      1.1K contracts
      Question
      Will Patrick Testin be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    7. Rebecca Kleefisch
      Kalshi
      0.05%
      Recorded span
      2 samples / 1 intervals; -0.1pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 0.1%
      Volume
      1.8K contracts
      Question
      Will Rebecca Kleefisch be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    8. Tommy Thompson
      Kalshi
      0.05%
      Recorded span
      2 samples / 1 intervals; -0.1pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 0.1%
      Volume
      5.9K contracts
      Question
      Will Tommy Thompson be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source

    Francesca Hong

    Democratic · Provisional nominee · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Francesca Hong personally.

    The snapshot identifies Francesca Hong as a primary leader, not a settled nominee.

    Polymarket
    39.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -5.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $53.2K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    38.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -9.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    38.0% / 39.0%
    Volume
    217K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Wisconsin
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
    Wisconsin Democratic primary: 8 candidates, Kalshi only

    This nomination field sits beneath Francesca Hong; it is not a second governor race.

    1. Francesca Hong
      Kalshi
      95.2%
      Recorded span
      8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      95.2% / 95.3%
      Volume
      1.7M contracts
      Question
      Will Francesca Hong be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    2. David Crowley
      Kalshi
      4.9%
      Recorded span
      8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.3pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      4.8% / 4.9%
      Volume
      1.3M contracts
      Question
      Will David Crowley be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    3. Brett Hulsey
      Kalshi
      0.05%
      Recorded span
      7 samples / 6 intervals; -0.1pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 0.1%
      Volume
      15.8K contracts
      Question
      Will Brett Hulsey be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    4. Joel Brennan
      Kalshi
      0.05%
      Recorded span
      6 samples / 5 intervals; -0.3pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 0.1%
      Volume
      128K contracts
      Question
      Will Joel Brennan be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    5. Josh Kaul
      Kalshi
      0.05%
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 0.1%
      Volume
      14.9K contracts
      Question
      Will Josh Kaul be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    6. Kelda Roys
      Kalshi
      0.05%
      Recorded span
      8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 0.1%
      Volume
      282K contracts
      Question
      Will Kelda Roys be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    7. Sara Rodriguez
      Kalshi
      0.05%
      Recorded span
      2 samples / 1 intervals; -0.1pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 0.1%
      Volume
      371K contracts
      Question
      Will Sara Rodriguez be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    8. Tony Evers
      Kalshi
      0.05%
      Recorded span
      3 samples / 2 intervals; -0.1pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 0.1%
      Volume
      16.8K contracts
      Question
      Will Tony Evers be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
How this desk reads the two booksThe comparison basis, and today's four irreducible facts

Since the previous edition

No earlier comparable POLI election edition. This edition is the baseline for the next published comparison.

Today's four irreducible facts

Each claim keeps the two venues separate.

  1. House control

    Democratic-control contracts:

    Polymarket 86.5%Kalshi 84.5%

  2. Senate control

    Democratic-control contracts:

    Polymarket 46.5%Kalshi 45.5%

    Recorded-span changes: Polymarket +2.0pp; Kalshi -1.5pp. No clear move.

  3. Ohio Senate — and 1 more

    The books name different leaders. The books also disagree in Ohio governor.

    Polymarket Sherrod Brown leadsKalshi Jon Husted leadsPolymarket: Sherrod Brown 51.5%Jon Husted 49.5%Kalshi: Sherrod Brown 49.5%Jon Husted 50.5%

  4. Georgia governor

    Rick Jackson has the widest current candidate-side venue gap, 5.5pp.

    Polymarket 41.5%Kalshi 47.0%

Iowa Senate

Kalshi only; no cross-venue comparison.

Polymarket: Not pricedKalshi: Ashley Hinson 66.0%Josh Turek 34.5%

Method and scope

  • These are trader-implied market prices, not polls and not POLI forecasts.
  • Polymarket volume is USD notional; Kalshi volume is contracts. They are not comparable, so this page does not combine or weight them.
  • Separately traded candidate contracts are independent and do not have to sum to 100%.
  • This is a dated snapshot observed Aug 10, 10:27 PM CT, not a live feed.
  • This edition contains 21 races from its published snapshots: no polls, no vote counts, and no inferred contests.
  • Edition changes publish only when stable race identity, contest kind, market scope, and venue identity make subtraction safe.

Election archive

  1. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  2. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  3. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  4. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  5. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  6. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  7. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  8. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  9. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  10. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  11. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  12. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  13. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  14. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.