Political Guyentist

Archive edition

Markets, not pollsPolymarketKalshi

Elections

Snapshot

The Senate books are 1.0pp apart. The books do not name different leaders in any statewide race.

Return to the latest elections edition

Control of Congress

Current contract prices, stated book by book.

House

Democratic control of the House

Polymarket86.5%heavily favoured
Kalshi83.5%clearly ahead

No clear movePolymarket +1.0pp; Kalshi -0.5pp across each venue's recorded span.

No House district markets in this data.

Senate

Democrats take the Senate

Polymarket44.5%narrowly behind
Kalshi45.5%a coin flip

No clear movePolymarket +1.0pp; Kalshi +0.5pp across each venue's recorded span.

Senate seat arithmetic

Republicans hold 53 of 100; 51 is a majority. The other 47 need a net 4.

The aggregate control contract does not identify which individual seats would supply that net gain.

The current race ledger

6 Senate races, then 4 governors, each group by state, A to Z.

1 race has snapshot data but no desk note yet. They still appear in full: Michigan Senate primary.

Senate

  1. Alaska SenateA sitting Republican senator is defending this seatMary PeltolaDan SullivanCandidate contracts price the named people.Both venues name Mary Peltola ahead.Polymarket: Mary Peltola 51.5%Dan Sullivan 50.0%Kalshi: Mary Peltola 56.0%Dan Sullivan 46.0%

    Mary Peltola

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    51.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -9.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $184K
    Question
    Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    56.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +2.0pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    55.0% / 57.0%
    Volume
    47.9K contracts
    Question
    Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska Senate race?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Dan Sullivan

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    50.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +10.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $111K
    Question
    Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    46.0%
    Recorded span
    7 samples / 6 intervals; -1.0pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    44.0% / 48.0%
    Volume
    52.6K contracts
    Question
    Will Dan Sullivan win the 2026 Alaska Senate race?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  2. Iowa SenateAn open seat, with no incumbent runningAshley HinsonJosh TurekCandidate contracts price the named people.One venue only; no cross-venue comparison.Polymarket: Not pricedKalshi: Ashley Hinson 55.5%Josh Turek 43.0%

    Ashley Hinson

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Kalshi
    55.5%
    Recorded span
    3 samples / 2 intervals; -3.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    53.0% / 58.0%
    Volume
    2.0K contracts
    Question
    Who will win the 2026 Iowa Senate election?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Josh Turek

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Kalshi
    43.0%
    Recorded span
    5 samples / 4 intervals; -3.0pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    41.0% / 45.0%
    Volume
    7.0K contracts
    Question
    Who will win the 2026 Iowa Senate election?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  3. Maine SenateDemocrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrewTroy JacksonSusan CollinsCandidate contracts price the named people.One venue only; no cross-venue comparison.Polymarket: Not pricedKalshi: Troy Jackson 63.5%Susan Collins 36.5%

    Troy Jackson

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Kalshi
    63.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    63.0% / 64.0%
    Volume
    1.7M contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in Maine?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Susan Collins

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Kalshi
    36.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    36.0% / 37.0%
    Volume
    2.0M contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Maine?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  4. Michigan Senate primaryAbdul El-SayedMike RogersCandidate contracts price the named people.One venue only; no cross-venue comparison.Polymarket: Abdul El-Sayed 98.5%Mike Rogers 100.0%Kalshi: Abdul El-Sayed 97.5%

    Abdul El-Sayed

    Democratic · Provisional nominee · Candidate contract

    The snapshot identifies Abdul El-Sayed as a primary leader, not a settled nominee.

    Polymarket
    98.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +4.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $1.3M
    Question
    Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    97.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +15pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    97.5% / 97.6%
    Volume
    8.9M contracts
    Question
    Will Abdul El-Sayed be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michigan?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Mike Rogers

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    100.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.7pp across that span
    Volume
    $6.2K
    Question
    Will Mike Rogers win the Republican Primary for U.S. Senate in Michigan?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

  5. Ohio SenateA special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate termSherrod BrownJon HustedCandidate contracts price the named people.One venue only; no cross-venue comparison.Polymarket: Sherrod Brown 50.5%Kalshi: Sherrod Brown 53.0%Jon Husted 47.0%

    Sherrod Brown

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    50.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $70.3K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    53.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.0pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    52.0% / 54.0%
    Volume
    244K contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in Ohio?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Jon Husted

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Kalshi
    47.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.0pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    46.0% / 48.0%
    Volume
    402K contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Ohio?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  6. Texas SenateKen PaxtonJames TalaricoCandidate contracts price the named people.Both venues name Ken Paxton ahead.Polymarket: Ken Paxton 51.5%James Talarico 48.5%Kalshi: Ken Paxton 54.5%James Talarico 46.5%

    Ken Paxton

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    51.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -2.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $359K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    54.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    54.0% / 55.0%
    Volume
    4.0M contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    James Talarico

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    48.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +2.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $300K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    46.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    46.0% / 47.0%
    Volume
    3.2M contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in Texas?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

Governors

Important statewide races; they do not determine control of Congress.

  1. Georgia governorGeorgia's governor's office is openKeisha Lance BottomsRick JacksonCandidate contracts price the named people.One venue only; no cross-venue comparison.Polymarket: Not pricedKalshi: Keisha Lance Bottoms 58.5%Rick Jackson 42.5%

    Keisha Lance Bottoms

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Kalshi
    58.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    58.0% / 59.0%
    Volume
    223K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Georgia
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Rick Jackson

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Kalshi
    42.5%
    Bid / ask
    42.0% / 43.0%
    Volume
    252K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Georgia
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  2. Nevada governorNevada's Republican governor is defending his jobAaron FordJoe LombardoCandidate contracts price the named people.One venue only; no cross-venue comparison.Polymarket: Not pricedKalshi: Aaron Ford 58.0%Joe Lombardo 42.0%

    Aaron Ford

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Kalshi
    58.0%
    Bid / ask
    56.0% / 60.0%
    Volume
    95.5K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Nevada
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Joe Lombardo

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Kalshi
    42.0%
    Bid / ask
    41.0% / 43.0%
    Volume
    141K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Nevada
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  3. Ohio governorOhio is choosing a new governorVivek RamaswamyAmy ActonCandidate contracts price the named people.One venue only; no cross-venue comparison.Polymarket: Not pricedKalshi: Vivek Ramaswamy 51.5%Amy Acton 48.5%

    Vivek Ramaswamy

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Kalshi
    51.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    51.0% / 52.0%
    Volume
    559K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Ohio
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Amy Acton

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Kalshi
    48.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    47.0% / 50.0%
    Volume
    370K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Ohio
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  4. Wisconsin governorAn open governorshipFrancesca HongTom TiffanyCandidate contracts price the named people.One venue only; no cross-venue comparison.Polymarket: Not pricedKalshi: Francesca Hong 85.5%Tom Tiffany 99.4%

    Francesca Hong

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Kalshi
    85.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -8.9pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    85.0% / 86.0%
    Volume
    1.1M contracts
    Question
    Will Francesca Hong be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Tom Tiffany

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Kalshi
    99.4%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.6pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    99.0% / 99.7%
    Volume
    16.3K contracts
    Question
    Will Tom Tiffany be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
How this desk reads the two booksThe comparison basis, and today's four irreducible facts

Since the previous edition

This edition predates stable race identifiers, so it cannot be compared with another edition. Contest names drift between editions, and joining on them would report moves that never happened.

Today's four irreducible facts

Each claim keeps the two venues separate.

  1. House control

    Democratic-control contracts:

    Polymarket 86.5%Kalshi 83.5%

  2. Senate control

    Democratic-control contracts:

    Polymarket 44.5%Kalshi 45.5%

    Recorded-span changes: Polymarket +1.0pp; Kalshi +0.5pp. No clear move.

  3. Michigan Senate primary

    One venue only; no cross-venue comparison.

    Polymarket Mike Rogers leadsKalshi Abdul El-Sayed leadsPolymarket: Abdul El-Sayed 98.5%Mike Rogers 100.0%Kalshi: Abdul El-Sayed 97.5%

  4. Alaska Senate

    Mary Peltola has the widest current candidate-side venue gap, 4.5pp.

    Polymarket 51.5%Kalshi 56.0%

Iowa Senate — and 5 more

Kalshi only; no cross-venue comparison.

Polymarket: Not pricedKalshi: Ashley Hinson 55.5%Josh Turek 43.0%

Method and scope

  • These are trader-implied market prices, not polls and not POLI forecasts.
  • Polymarket volume is USD notional; Kalshi volume is contracts. They are not comparable, so this page does not combine or weight them.
  • Separately traded candidate contracts are independent and do not have to sum to 100%.
  • This is a dated snapshot observed Aug 4, 11:17 PM CT, not a live feed.
  • This edition contains 10 races from its published snapshots: no polls, no vote counts, and no inferred contests.
  • Edition changes publish only when stable race identity, contest kind, market scope, and venue identity make subtraction safe.

Election archive

  1. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  2. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  3. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  4. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  5. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  6. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  7. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  8. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  9. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  10. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  11. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  12. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  13. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  14. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.