House
Democratic control of the House
Polymarket86.5%heavily favoured
Kalshi83.5%clearly ahead
No clear movePolymarket +1.0pp; Kalshi -0.5pp across each venue's recorded span.
No House district markets in this data.
Archive edition
Markets, not pollsPolymarketKalshi
Elections
Snapshot
The Senate books are 1.0pp apart. They name different leaders in Wisconsin governor general.
Control of Congress
Current contract prices, stated book by book.
Senate
Democrats take the Senate
Polymarket45.5%a coin flip
Kalshi46.5%a coin flip
Toward the DemocratsPolymarket +2.0pp; Kalshi +2.5pp across each venue's recorded span.
Senate seat arithmetic
Republicans hold 53 of 100; 51 is a majority. The other 47 need a net 4.
The aggregate control contract does not identify which individual seats would supply that net gain.
The current race ledger
6 Senate races, then 4 governors, each group by state, A to Z.
10 races have snapshot data but no desk note yet. They still appear in full: Ohio governor general, Maine Senate general, Texas Senate general, Alaska Senate general, Iowa Senate general, Michigan Senate general, Ohio Senate general, Wisconsin governor general, Georgia governor general, Nevada governor general.
Senate
Alaska Senate generalMary PeltolaDan SullivanCandidate contracts price the named people.One venue only; no cross-venue comparison.Polymarket: Mary Peltola 55.5%Dan Sullivan 44.5%Kalshi: Dan Sullivan 45.5%
Mary Peltola
Democratic · Candidate contract
Polymarket
55.5%- Recorded span
- 7 samples / 6 intervals; -5.0pp across that span
- Volume
- $184K
- Question
- Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
- Observed
Kalshi
Not pricedThis venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.
Dan Sullivan
Republican · Candidate contract
Polymarket
44.5%- Recorded span
- 7 samples / 6 intervals; +4.5pp across that span
- Volume
- $110K
- Question
- Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
- Observed
Kalshi
45.5%- Recorded span
- 8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.5pp across that span
- Bid / ask
- 45.0% / 46.0%
- Volume
- 261K contracts
- Question
- Will Republicans win the Senate race in Alaska?
- Observed
Iowa Senate generalAshley HinsonJosh TurekCandidate contracts price the named people.Both venues name Ashley Hinson ahead.Polymarket: Ashley Hinson 55.5%Josh Turek 45.5%Kalshi: Ashley Hinson 57.5%Josh Turek 42.5%
Ashley Hinson
Republican · Candidate contract
Polymarket
55.5%- Recorded span
- 7 samples / 6 intervals; -2.0pp across that span
- Volume
- $81.9K
- Question
- Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
- Observed
Kalshi
57.5%- Recorded span
- 8 samples / 7 intervals; -2.5pp across that span
- Bid / ask
- 57.0% / 58.0%
- Volume
- 544K contracts
- Question
- Will Republicans win the Senate race in Iowa?
- Observed
Josh Turek
Democratic · Candidate contract
Polymarket
45.5%- Recorded span
- 7 samples / 6 intervals; +2.0pp across that span
- Volume
- $86.3K
- Question
- Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
- Observed
Kalshi
42.5%- Recorded span
- 8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.5pp across that span
- Bid / ask
- 42.0% / 43.0%
- Volume
- 450K contracts
- Question
- Will Democratics win the Senate race in Iowa?
- Observed
Maine Senate generalTroy JacksonSusan CollinsParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Troy Jackson ahead.Polymarket: Troy Jackson 67.5%Susan Collins 33.5%Kalshi: Troy Jackson 63.5%Susan Collins 36.5%
Troy Jackson
Democratic · Party contract
This contract prices the Democratic party, not Troy Jackson personally.
Polymarket
67.5%- Recorded span
- 7 samples / 6 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
- Volume
- $702K
- Question
- Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
- Observed
Kalshi
63.5%- Recorded span
- 8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
- Bid / ask
- 63.0% / 64.0%
- Volume
- 1.7M contracts
- Question
- Will Democratics win the Senate race in Maine?
- Observed
Susan Collins
Republican · Party contract
This contract prices the Republican party, not Susan Collins personally.
Polymarket
33.5%- Recorded span
- 7 samples / 6 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
- Volume
- $402K
- Question
- Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
- Observed
Kalshi
36.5%- Recorded span
- 8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
- Bid / ask
- 36.0% / 37.0%
- Volume
- 1.9M contracts
- Question
- Will Republicans win the Senate race in Maine?
- Observed
Michigan Senate generalAbdul El-SayedMike RogersParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Abdul El-Sayed ahead.Polymarket: Abdul El-Sayed 66.0%Mike Rogers 35.0%Kalshi: Abdul El-Sayed 64.5%Mike Rogers 35.5%
Abdul El-Sayed
Democratic · Provisional nominee · Party contract
This contract prices the Democratic party, not Abdul El-Sayed personally.
The snapshot identifies Abdul El-Sayed as a primary leader, not a settled nominee.
Polymarket
66.0%- Recorded span
- 8 samples / 7 intervals; -3.5pp across that span
- Volume
- $105K
- Question
- Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
- Observed
Kalshi
64.5%- Recorded span
- 8 samples / 7 intervals; -5.5pp across that span
- Bid / ask
- 64.0% / 65.0%
- Volume
- 173K contracts
- Question
- Will Democratics win the Senate race in Michigan?
- Observed
MI Democratic primary: 9 candidates, Kalshi only
This nomination field sits beneath Abdul El-Sayed; it is not a second governor race.
Abdul El-Sayed
Polymarket
98.2%- Recorded span
- 7 samples / 6 intervals; +16pp across that span
- Volume
- $817K
- Question
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
- Observed
Kalshi
98.0%- Recorded span
- 8 samples / 7 intervals; +23pp across that span
- Bid / ask
- 98.0% / 98.1%
- Volume
- 4.0M contracts
- Question
- Will Abdul El-Sayed be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michigan?
- Observed
Haley Stevens
Polymarket
1.8%- Recorded span
- 8 samples / 7 intervals; -22pp across that span
- Volume
- $513K
- Question
- Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
- Observed
Kalshi
1.9%- Recorded span
- 8 samples / 7 intervals; -25pp across that span
- Bid / ask
- 1.9% / 2.0%
- Volume
- 5.4M contracts
- Question
- Will Haley Stevens be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michigan?
- Observed
Andy Levin
Polymarket
0.05%- Recorded span
- 8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
- Volume
- $39.1K
- Question
- Will Andy Levin win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
- Observed
Kalshi
0.05%- Recorded span
- 5 samples / 4 intervals; -0.1pp across that span
- Bid / ask
- 0.0% / 0.1%
- Volume
- 5.3K contracts
- Question
- Will Andy Levin be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michigan?
- Observed
Dana Nessel
Polymarket
0.05%- Recorded span
- 7 samples / 6 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
- Volume
- $60.7K
- Question
- Will Dana Nessel win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
- Observed
Kalshi
0.05%- Bid / ask
- 0.0% / 0.1%
- Volume
- 8.3K contracts
- Question
- Will Dana Nessel be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michigan?
- Observed
Kristen McDonald Rivet
Polymarket
0.05%- Recorded span
- 8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
- Volume
- $146K
- Question
- Will Kristen McDonald Rivet win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
- Observed
Kalshi
0.05%- Recorded span
- 3 samples / 2 intervals; -0.1pp across that span
- Bid / ask
- 0.0% / 0.1%
- Volume
- 4.2K contracts
- Question
- Will Kristen McDonald Rivet be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michigan?
- Observed
Mallory McMorrow
Polymarket
0.05%- Recorded span
- 8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
- Volume
- $115K
- Question
- Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
- Observed
Kalshi
0.05%- Recorded span
- 8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.1pp across that span
- Bid / ask
- 0.0% / 0.1%
- Volume
- 489K contracts
- Question
- Will Mallory McMorrow be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michigan?
- Observed
Matt Sahr
Polymarket
0.05%- Recorded span
- 7 samples / 6 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
- Volume
- $128K
- Question
- Will Matt Sahr win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
- Observed
Kalshi
0.05%- Bid / ask
- 0.0% / 0.1%
- Volume
- 1.7K contracts
- Question
- Will Matt Sahr be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michigan?
- Observed
Rashida Tlaib
Polymarket
0.05%- Recorded span
- 7 samples / 6 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
- Volume
- $66.3K
- Question
- Will Rashida Tlaib win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
- Observed
Kalshi
0.05%- Recorded span
- 2 samples / 1 intervals; -0.1pp across that span
- Bid / ask
- 0.0% / 0.1%
- Volume
- 5.8K contracts
- Question
- Will Rashida Tlaib be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michigan?
- Observed
Sarah Anthony
Polymarket
0.05%- Recorded span
- 7 samples / 6 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
- Volume
- $40.1K
- Question
- Will Sarah Anthony win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
- Observed
Kalshi
0.05%- Bid / ask
- 0.0% / 0.1%
- Volume
- 2.8K contracts
- Question
- Will Sarah Anthony be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michigan?
- Observed
Mike Rogers
Republican · Party contract
This contract prices the Republican party, not Mike Rogers personally.
Polymarket
35.0%- Recorded span
- 7 samples / 6 intervals; +3.0pp across that span
- Volume
- $58.0K
- Question
- Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
- Observed
Kalshi
35.5%- Recorded span
- 8 samples / 7 intervals; +5.5pp across that span
- Bid / ask
- 35.0% / 36.0%
- Volume
- 269K contracts
- Question
- Will Republicans win the Senate race in Michigan?
- Observed
Ohio Senate generalSherrod BrownJon HustedCandidate contracts price the named people.Both venues name Sherrod Brown ahead.Polymarket: Sherrod Brown 50.5%Jon Husted 49.5%Kalshi: Sherrod Brown 53.5%Jon Husted 47.0%
Sherrod Brown
Democratic · Candidate contract
Polymarket
50.5%- Recorded span
- 8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.0pp across that span
- Volume
- $70.2K
- Question
- Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
- Observed
Kalshi
53.5%- Recorded span
- 8 samples / 7 intervals; +2.5pp across that span
- Bid / ask
- 53.0% / 54.0%
- Volume
- 243K contracts
- Question
- Will Democratics win the Senate race in Ohio?
- Observed
Jon Husted
Republican · Candidate contract
Polymarket
49.5%- Recorded span
- 8 samples / 7 intervals; -2.0pp across that span
- Volume
- $56.7K
- Question
- Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
- Observed
Kalshi
47.0%- Recorded span
- 8 samples / 7 intervals; -3.0pp across that span
- Bid / ask
- 46.0% / 48.0%
- Volume
- 400K contracts
- Question
- Will Republicans win the Senate race in Ohio?
- Observed
Texas Senate generalKen PaxtonJames TalaricoCandidate contracts price the named people.Both venues name Ken Paxton ahead.Polymarket: Ken Paxton 51.5%James Talarico 48.0%Kalshi: Ken Paxton 53.5%James Talarico 46.5%
Ken Paxton
Republican · Candidate contract
Polymarket
51.5%- Recorded span
- 7 samples / 6 intervals; -2.0pp across that span
- Volume
- $357K
- Question
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
- Observed
Kalshi
53.5%- Recorded span
- 8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.5pp across that span
- Bid / ask
- 53.0% / 54.0%
- Volume
- 4.0M contracts
- Question
- Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas?
- Observed
James Talarico
Democratic · Candidate contract
Polymarket
48.0%- Recorded span
- 7 samples / 6 intervals; +2.0pp across that span
- Volume
- $298K
- Question
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
- Observed
Kalshi
46.5%- Recorded span
- 8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
- Bid / ask
- 46.0% / 47.0%
- Volume
- 3.1M contracts
- Question
- Will Democratics win the Senate race in Texas?
- Observed
Governors
Important statewide races; they do not determine control of Congress.
Georgia governor generalKeisha Lance BottomsRick JacksonParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Keisha Lance Bottoms ahead.Polymarket: Keisha Lance Bottoms 58.5%Rick Jackson 41.0%Kalshi: Keisha Lance Bottoms 58.5%Rick Jackson 41.5%
Keisha Lance Bottoms
Democratic · Party contract
This contract prices the Democratic party, not Keisha Lance Bottoms personally.
Polymarket
58.5%- Recorded span
- 8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.5pp across that span
- Volume
- $28.4K
- Question
- Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?
- Observed
Kalshi
58.5%- Recorded span
- 8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
- Bid / ask
- 58.0% / 59.0%
- Volume
- 222K contracts
- Question
- Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Georgia
- Observed
Rick Jackson
Republican · Party contract
This contract prices the Republican party, not Rick Jackson personally.
Polymarket
41.0%- Recorded span
- 8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.0pp across that span
- Volume
- $31.5K
- Question
- Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?
- Observed
Kalshi
41.5%- Recorded span
- 8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
- Bid / ask
- 41.0% / 42.0%
- Volume
- 251K contracts
- Question
- Will the Republican party win the governorship in Georgia
- Observed
Nevada governor generalAaron FordJoe LombardoParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Aaron Ford ahead.Polymarket: Aaron Ford 55.0%Joe Lombardo 46.0%Kalshi: Aaron Ford 56.0%Joe Lombardo 43.5%
Aaron Ford
Democratic · Party contract
This contract prices the Democratic party, not Aaron Ford personally.
Polymarket
55.0%- Recorded span
- 7 samples / 6 intervals; -1.0pp across that span
- Volume
- $11.5K
- Question
- Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
- Observed
Kalshi
56.0%- Recorded span
- 3 samples / 2 intervals; -2.0pp across that span
- Bid / ask
- 55.0% / 57.0%
- Volume
- 94.5K contracts
- Question
- Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Nevada
- Observed
Joe Lombardo
Republican · Party contract
This contract prices the Republican party, not Joe Lombardo personally.
Polymarket
46.0%- Recorded span
- 8 samples / 7 intervals; -2.5pp across that span
- Volume
- $32.6K
- Question
- Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
- Observed
Kalshi
43.5%- Recorded span
- 5 samples / 4 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
- Bid / ask
- 43.0% / 44.0%
- Volume
- 123K contracts
- Question
- Will the Republican party win the governorship in Nevada
- Observed
Ohio governor generalVivek RamaswamyAmy ActonParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Vivek Ramaswamy ahead.Polymarket: Vivek Ramaswamy 56.0%Amy Acton 44.0%Kalshi: Vivek Ramaswamy 51.5%Amy Acton 49.0%
Vivek Ramaswamy
Republican · Party contract
This contract prices the Republican party, not Vivek Ramaswamy personally.
Polymarket
56.0%- Recorded span
- 7 samples / 6 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
- Volume
- $56.8K
- Question
- Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
- Observed
Kalshi
51.5%- Recorded span
- 8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
- Bid / ask
- 51.0% / 52.0%
- Volume
- 559K contracts
- Question
- Will the Republican party win the governorship in Ohio
- Observed
Amy Acton
Democratic · Party contract
This contract prices the Democratic party, not Amy Acton personally.
Polymarket
44.0%- Recorded span
- 7 samples / 6 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
- Volume
- $59.0K
- Question
- Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
- Observed
Kalshi
49.0%- Recorded span
- 8 samples / 7 intervals; -2.0pp across that span
- Bid / ask
- 48.0% / 50.0%
- Volume
- 369K contracts
- Question
- Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Ohio
- Observed
Wisconsin governor generalFrancesca HongTom TiffanyParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.The books name different leaders.Polymarket: Francesca Hong 51.0%Tom Tiffany 49.5%Kalshi: Francesca Hong 48.5%Tom Tiffany 51.5%
Francesca Hong
Democratic · Provisional nominee · Party contract
This contract prices the Democratic party, not Francesca Hong personally.
The snapshot identifies Francesca Hong as a primary leader, not a settled nominee.
Polymarket
51.0%- Recorded span
- 7 samples / 6 intervals; -3.0pp across that span
- Volume
- $22.6K
- Question
- Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
- Observed
Kalshi
48.5%- Recorded span
- 8 samples / 7 intervals; -10pp across that span
- Bid / ask
- 48.0% / 49.0%
- Volume
- 123K contracts
- Question
- Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Wisconsin
- Observed
WI Democratic primary: 13 candidates, Kalshi only
This nomination field sits beneath Francesca Hong; it is not a second governor race.
Francesca Hong
Polymarket
95.8%- Recorded span
- 7 samples / 6 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
- Volume
- $95.5K
- Question
- Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
- Observed
Kalshi
94.3%- Bid / ask
- 94.3% / 94.4%
- Volume
- 916K contracts
- Question
- Will Francesca Hong be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
- Observed
David Crowley
Polymarket
4.4%- Recorded span
- 8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.6pp across that span
- Volume
- $36.9K
- Question
- Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
- Observed
Kalshi
5.8%- Bid / ask
- 5.5% / 6.1%
- Volume
- 713K contracts
- Question
- Will David Crowley be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
- Observed
Kelda Roys
Polymarket
0.05%- Recorded span
- 7 samples / 6 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
- Volume
- $14.5K
- Question
- Will Kelda Roys win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
- Observed
Kalshi
0.4%- Bid / ask
- 0.2% / 0.5%
- Volume
- 227K contracts
- Question
- Will Kelda Roys be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
- Observed
Joel Brennan
Polymarket
0.1%- Recorded span
- 7 samples / 6 intervals; -0.3pp across that span
- Volume
- $13.5K
- Question
- Will Joel Brennan win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
- Observed
Kalshi
0.05%- Bid / ask
- 0.0% / 0.1%
- Volume
- 111K contracts
- Question
- Will Joel Brennan be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
- Observed
Sara Rodriguez
Polymarket
0.1%- Recorded span
- 7 samples / 6 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
- Volume
- $51.8K
- Question
- Will Sara Rodriguez win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
- Observed
Kalshi
0.05%- Bid / ask
- 0.0% / 0.1%
- Volume
- 371K contracts
- Question
- Will Sara Rodriguez be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
- Observed
Brett Hulsey
Polymarket
0.05%- Recorded span
- 7 samples / 6 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
- Volume
- $4.8K
- Question
- Will Brett Hulsey win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
- Observed
Kalshi
0.05%- Bid / ask
- 0.0% / 0.1%
- Volume
- 5.8K contracts
- Question
- Will Brett Hulsey be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
- Observed
Chris Larson
Polymarket
0.05%- Recorded span
- 7 samples / 6 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
- Volume
- $12.7K
- Question
- Will Chris Larson win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
- Observed
Mandela Barnes
Polymarket
0.05%- Recorded span
- 7 samples / 6 intervals; -1.7pp across that span
- Volume
- $46.7K
- Question
- Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
- Observed
Kalshi
0.05%- Bid / ask
- 0.0% / 0.1%
- Volume
- 706K contracts
- Question
- Will Mandela Barnes be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
- Observed
Melissa Agard
Polymarket
0.05%- Recorded span
- 7 samples / 6 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
- Volume
- $5.3K
- Question
- Will Melissa Agard win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
- Observed
Missy Hughes
Polymarket
0.05%- Recorded span
- 8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
- Volume
- $4.7K
- Question
- Will Missy Hughes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
- Observed
Kalshi
0.05%- Bid / ask
- 0.0% / 0.1%
- Volume
- 1.8K contracts
- Question
- Will Missy Hughes be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
- Observed
Tim Jacobson
Polymarket
0.05%- Recorded span
- 7 samples / 6 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
- Volume
- $4.5K
- Question
- Will Tim Jacobson win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
- Observed
Tom Nelson
Polymarket
0.05%- Recorded span
- 7 samples / 6 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
- Volume
- $5.0K
- Question
- Will Tom Nelson win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
- Observed
Zachary Roper
Polymarket
0.05%- Recorded span
- 7 samples / 6 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
- Volume
- $5.4K
- Question
- Will Zachary Roper win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
- Observed
Tom Tiffany
Republican · Provisional nominee · Party contract
This contract prices the Republican party, not Tom Tiffany personally.
The snapshot identifies Tom Tiffany as a primary leader, not a settled nominee.
Polymarket
49.5%- Recorded span
- 7 samples / 6 intervals; +3.0pp across that span
- Volume
- $67.3K
- Question
- Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
- Observed
Kalshi
51.5%- Recorded span
- 8 samples / 7 intervals; +8.5pp across that span
- Bid / ask
- 51.0% / 52.0%
- Volume
- 111K contracts
- Question
- Will the Republican party win the governorship in Wisconsin
- Observed
WI Republican primary: 8 candidates, Kalshi only
This nomination field sits beneath Tom Tiffany; it is not a second governor race.
Tom Tiffany
Polymarket
99.5%- Recorded span
- 8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.7pp across that span
- Volume
- $12.3K
- Question
- Will Tom Tiffany win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Republican primary election?
- Observed
Kalshi
99.0%- Recorded span
- 8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.8pp across that span
- Bid / ask
- 98.2% / 99.7%
- Volume
- 16.3K contracts
- Question
- Will Tom Tiffany be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
- Observed
Andy Manske
Polymarket
0.05%- Recorded span
- 7 samples / 6 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
- Volume
- $3.7K
- Question
- Will Andy Manske win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Republican primary election?
- Observed
Kalshi
1.5%- Recorded span
- 2 samples / 1 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
- Bid / ask
- 1.0% / 2.0%
- Volume
- 100 contracts
- Question
- Will Andy Manske be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
- Observed
Rebecca Kleefisch
Polymarket
0.1%- Recorded span
- 7 samples / 6 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
- Volume
- $5.5K
- Question
- Will Rebecca Kleefisch win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Republican primary election?
- Observed
Kalshi
1.1%- Bid / ask
- 0.1% / 2.2%
- Volume
- 811 contracts
- Question
- Will Rebecca Kleefisch be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
- Observed
Josh Schoemann
Polymarket
0.5%- Recorded span
- 8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.1pp across that span
- Volume
- $4.5K
- Question
- Will Josh Schoemann win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Republican primary election?
- Observed
Kalshi
1.1%- Recorded span
- 2 samples / 1 intervals; +1.0pp across that span
- Bid / ask
- 0.1% / 2.0%
- Volume
- 639 contracts
- Question
- Will Josh Schoemann be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
- Observed
Tommy Thompson
Polymarket
0.2%- Recorded span
- 7 samples / 6 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
- Volume
- $4.4K
- Question
- Will Tommy Thompson win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Republican primary election?
- Observed
Kalshi
0.5%- Bid / ask
- 0.1% / 1.0%
- Volume
- 5.0K contracts
- Question
- Will Tommy Thompson be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
- Observed
Eric Hovde
Polymarket
0.1%- Recorded span
- 8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
- Volume
- $21.1K
- Question
- Will Eric Hovde win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Republican primary election?
- Observed
Kalshi
0.5%- Bid / ask
- 0.1% / 0.9%
- Volume
- 520 contracts
- Question
- Will Eric Hovde be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
- Observed
Sean Duffy
Polymarket
0.1%- Recorded span
- 7 samples / 6 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
- Volume
- $36.5K
- Question
- Will Sean Duffy win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Republican primary election?
- Observed
Tim Michels
Polymarket
0.1%- Recorded span
- 7 samples / 6 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
- Volume
- $3.6K
- Question
- Will Tim Michels win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Republican primary election?
- Observed
How this desk reads the two booksThe comparison basis, and today's four irreducible facts
Since the previous edition
This edition predates stable race identifiers, so it cannot be compared with another edition. Contest names drift between editions, and joining on them would report moves that never happened.
Today's four irreducible facts
Each claim keeps the two venues separate.
House control
Democratic-control contracts:
Polymarket 86.5%Kalshi 83.5%Senate control
Democratic-control contracts:
Polymarket 45.5%Kalshi 46.5%Recorded-span changes: Polymarket +2.0pp; Kalshi +2.5pp. Both books clear the direction threshold.
Alaska Senate general — and 1 more
One venue only; no cross-venue comparison. The books also disagree in Wisconsin governor general.
Polymarket Mary Peltola leadsKalshi Dan Sullivan leadsPolymarket: Mary Peltola 55.5%Dan Sullivan 44.5%Kalshi: Dan Sullivan 45.5%Ohio governor general
Amy Acton has the widest current candidate-side venue gap, 5.0pp.
Polymarket 44.0%Kalshi 49.0%
Cross-venue coverage
Every race on this board is priced by both books.
Method and scope
- These are trader-implied market prices, not polls and not POLI forecasts.
- Polymarket volume is USD notional; Kalshi volume is contracts. They are not comparable, so this page does not combine or weight them.
- Separately traded candidate contracts are independent and do not have to sum to 100%.
- This is a dated snapshot observed Aug 4, 10:40 AM CT, not a live feed.
- This edition contains 10 races from its published snapshots: no polls, no vote counts, and no inferred contests.
- Edition changes publish only when stable race identity, contest kind, market scope, and venue identity make subtraction safe.
Election archive
- Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
- Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
- Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
- Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
- Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
- Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
- Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
- Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
- Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
- Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
- Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
- Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
- Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
- Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.