Political Guyentist

Archive edition

Markets, not pollsPolymarketKalshi

Elections

Snapshot

The Senate books are 3.0pp apart. The books do not name different leaders in any statewide race.

Return to the latest elections edition

Control of Congress

Current contract prices, stated book by book.

House

Democratic control of the House

Polymarket88.5%heavily favoured
Kalshi85.5%heavily favoured

No clear movePolymarket +1.0pp; Kalshi +0.5pp across each venue's recorded span.

No House district markets in this data.

Senate

Democrats take the Senate

Polymarket49.5%a coin flip
Kalshi46.5%a coin flip

Toward the RepublicansPolymarket -1.0pp; Kalshi -2.5pp across each venue's recorded span.

Senate seat arithmetic

Republicans hold 53 of 100; 51 is a majority. The other 47 need a net 4.

The aggregate control contract does not identify which individual seats would supply that net gain.

The current race ledger

10 Senate races, then 12 governors, each group by state, A to Z.

12 races have snapshot data but no desk note yet. They still appear in full: North Carolina Senate, Georgia Senate, Nebraska Senate, New Hampshire Senate, Iowa governor, Alaska governor, Michigan governor, Arizona governor, Texas governor, New York governor, Pennsylvania governor, Florida governor.

Senate

  1. Alaska SenateA sitting Republican senator is defending this seatMary PeltolaDan SullivanCandidate contracts price the named people.Both venues name Mary Peltola ahead.Polymarket: Mary Peltola 60.5%Dan Sullivan 39.0%Kalshi: Mary Peltola 63.0%Dan Sullivan 40.5%

    Mary Peltola

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    60.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +5.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $234K
    Question
    Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    63.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +7.0pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    62.0% / 64.0%
    Volume
    70.0K contracts
    Question
    Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska Senate race?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Dan Sullivan

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    39.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -5.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $131K
    Question
    Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    40.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -6.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    40.0% / 41.0%
    Volume
    67.6K contracts
    Question
    Will Dan Sullivan win the 2026 Alaska Senate race?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  2. Georgia SenateJon OssoffMike CollinsParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Jon Ossoff ahead.Polymarket: Jon Ossoff 93.5%Mike Collins 7.0%Kalshi: Jon Ossoff 91.7%Mike Collins 8.2%

    Jon Ossoff

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Jon Ossoff personally.

    Polymarket
    93.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $45.2K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    91.7%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.6pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    91.5% / 91.8%
    Volume
    345K contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in Georgia?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Mike Collins

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Mike Collins personally.

    Polymarket
    7.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.4pp across that span
    Volume
    $72.6K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    8.2%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.3pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    7.8% / 8.5%
    Volume
    800K contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Georgia?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  3. Iowa SenateAn open seat, with no incumbent runningAshley HinsonJosh TurekParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Ashley Hinson ahead.Polymarket: Ashley Hinson 60.5%Josh Turek 40.5%Kalshi: Ashley Hinson 57.5%Josh Turek 43.5%

    Ashley Hinson

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Ashley Hinson personally.

    Polymarket
    60.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $108K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    57.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    57.0% / 58.0%
    Volume
    909K contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Iowa?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Josh Turek

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Josh Turek personally.

    Polymarket
    40.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $105K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    43.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    43.0% / 44.0%
    Volume
    846K contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in Iowa?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  4. Maine SenateDemocrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrewTroy JacksonSusan CollinsParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Troy Jackson ahead.Polymarket: Troy Jackson 70.5%Susan Collins 30.5%Kalshi: Troy Jackson 68.5%Susan Collins 32.5%

    Troy Jackson

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Troy Jackson personally.

    Polymarket
    70.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $728K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    68.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +2.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    68.0% / 69.0%
    Volume
    1.9M contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in Maine?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Susan Collins

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Susan Collins personally.

    Polymarket
    30.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $493K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    32.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -3.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    32.0% / 33.0%
    Volume
    2.2M contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Maine?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  5. Michigan SenateAbdul El-SayedMike RogersParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Abdul El-Sayed ahead.Polymarket: Abdul El-Sayed 61.0%Mike Rogers 39.0%Kalshi: Abdul El-Sayed 59.5%Mike Rogers 41.5%

    Abdul El-Sayed

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Abdul El-Sayed personally.

    Polymarket
    61.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $322K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    59.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    59.0% / 60.0%
    Volume
    1.1M contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in Michigan?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Mike Rogers

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Mike Rogers personally.

    Polymarket
    39.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $271K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    41.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    41.0% / 42.0%
    Volume
    1.3M contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Michigan?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  6. Nebraska SenatePete RickettsDan OsbornCandidate contracts price the named people.Both venues name Pete Ricketts ahead.Polymarket: Pete Ricketts 69.5%Dan Osborn 30.5%Kalshi: Pete Ricketts 70.5%Dan Osborn 28.5%

    Pete Ricketts

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Pete Ricketts personally.

    Polymarket
    69.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -2.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $89.3K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    70.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    70.0% / 71.0%
    Volume
    249K contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Nebraska?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Dan Osborn

    Independent · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    30.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +2.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $26.3K
    Question
    Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    28.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    28.0% / 29.0%
    Volume
    360K contracts
    Question
    Will Dan Osborn (as an independent)s win the Senate race in Nebraska?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  7. New Hampshire SenateChris PappasJohn E. SununuParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Chris Pappas ahead.Polymarket: Chris Pappas 89.5%John E. Sununu 10.0%Kalshi: Chris Pappas 90.0%John E. Sununu 11.5%

    Chris Pappas

    Democratic · Provisional nominee · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Chris Pappas personally.

    The snapshot identifies Chris Pappas as a primary leader, not a settled nominee.

    Polymarket
    89.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +4.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $50.5K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    90.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +2.0pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    89.0% / 91.0%
    Volume
    72.0K contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in New Hampshire?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
    New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary: 6 candidates, Kalshi only

    This nomination field sits beneath Chris Pappas; it is not a second governor race.

    1. Chris Pappas
      Kalshi
      96.6%
      Recorded span
      5 samples / 4 intervals; +0.0pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      96.0% / 97.3%
      Volume
      26.2K contracts
      Question
      Will Chris Pappas be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    2. Karishma Manzur
      Kalshi
      3.4%
      Recorded span
      7 samples / 6 intervals; -2.5pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      2.8% / 3.9%
      Volume
      34.1K contracts
      Question
      Will Karishma Manzur be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    3. Maggie Goodlander
      Kalshi
      1.0%
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 2.0%
      Volume
      33 contracts
      Question
      Will Maggie Goodlander be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    4. Stefany Shaheen
      Kalshi
      1.0%
      Recorded span
      2 samples / 1 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 2.0%
      Volume
      209 contracts
      Question
      Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    5. Annie Kuster
      Kalshi
      0.4%
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 0.9%
      Volume
      102 contracts
      Question
      Will Annie Kuster be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    6. Jared Sullivan
      Kalshi
      0.4%
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 0.9%
      Volume
      3 contracts
      Question
      Will Jared Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source

    John E. Sununu

    Republican · Provisional nominee · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not John E. Sununu personally.

    The snapshot identifies John E. Sununu as a primary leader, not a settled nominee.

    Polymarket
    10.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -5.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $23.4K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    11.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    10.0% / 13.0%
    Volume
    110K contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in New Hampshire?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
    New Hampshire Republican Senate primary: 4 candidates, Kalshi only

    This nomination field sits beneath John E. Sununu; it is not a second governor race.

    1. John E. Sununu
      Kalshi
      95.8%
      Recorded span
      3 samples / 2 intervals; -3.2pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      94.0% / 97.7%
      Volume
      12.7K contracts
      Question
      Will John E. Sununu be the Republican nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    2. Scott Brown
      Kalshi
      2.9%
      Recorded span
      4 samples / 3 intervals; -2.6pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      2.3% / 3.4%
      Volume
      21.6K contracts
      Question
      Will Scott Brown be the Republican nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    3. Dan Innis
      Kalshi
      1.0%
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 2.0%
      Volume
      37 contracts
      Question
      Will Dan Innis be the Republican nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    4. Chris Sununu
      Kalshi
      0.9%
      Recorded span
      2 samples / 1 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 1.9%
      Volume
      22.7K contracts
      Question
      Will Chris Sununu be the Republican nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
  8. North Carolina SenateRoy CooperMichael WhatleyParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Roy Cooper ahead.Polymarket: Roy Cooper 92.5%Michael Whatley 8.5%Kalshi: Roy Cooper 91.8%Michael Whatley 8.3%

    Roy Cooper

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Roy Cooper personally.

    Polymarket
    92.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $39.7K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    91.8%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.9pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    91.3% / 92.2%
    Volume
    1.2M contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in North Carolina?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Michael Whatley

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Michael Whatley personally.

    Polymarket
    8.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $58.9K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    8.3%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.1pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    8.0% / 8.7%
    Volume
    357K contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in North Carolina?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  9. Ohio SenateA special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate termSherrod BrownJon HustedParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Sherrod Brown ahead.Polymarket: Sherrod Brown 54.5%Jon Husted 46.5%Kalshi: Sherrod Brown 51.5%Jon Husted 48.5%

    Sherrod Brown

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Sherrod Brown personally.

    Polymarket
    54.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +2.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $108K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    51.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    51.0% / 52.0%
    Volume
    821K contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in Ohio?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Jon Husted

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Jon Husted personally.

    Polymarket
    46.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $76.6K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    48.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    48.0% / 49.0%
    Volume
    1.4M contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Ohio?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  10. Texas SenateKen PaxtonJames TalaricoParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Ken Paxton ahead.Polymarket: Ken Paxton 49.5%James Talarico 49.5%Kalshi: Ken Paxton 51.5%James Talarico 49.5%

    Ken Paxton

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Ken Paxton personally.

    Polymarket
    49.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $503K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    51.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    51.0% / 52.0%
    Volume
    5.4M contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    James Talarico

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not James Talarico personally.

    Polymarket
    49.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -2.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $418K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    49.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    49.0% / 50.0%
    Volume
    4.1M contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in Texas?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

Governors

Important statewide races; they do not determine control of Congress.

  1. Alaska governorBernadette WilsonTom BegichCandidate contracts price the named people.Both venues name Bernadette Wilson ahead.Polymarket: Bernadette Wilson 35.5%Tom Begich 19.5%Kalshi: Bernadette Wilson 35.0%Tom Begich 18.5%

    Bernadette Wilson

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    35.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +8.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $167K
    Question
    Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    35.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +13pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    34.0% / 36.0%
    Volume
    35.5K contracts
    Question
    Who will win the governorship in Alaska?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Tom Begich

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    19.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -5.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $149K
    Question
    Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    18.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -31pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    18.0% / 19.0%
    Volume
    111K contracts
    Question
    Who will win the governorship in Alaska?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  2. Arizona governorKatie HobbsAndy BiggsParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Katie Hobbs ahead.Polymarket: Katie Hobbs 87.5%Andy Biggs 11.0%Kalshi: Katie Hobbs 87.5%Andy Biggs 13.5%

    Katie Hobbs

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Katie Hobbs personally.

    Polymarket
    87.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $31.0K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    87.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    87.0% / 88.0%
    Volume
    296K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Arizona
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Andy Biggs

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Andy Biggs personally.

    Polymarket
    11.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $36.1K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    13.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -2.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    13.0% / 14.0%
    Volume
    223K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Arizona
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  3. Florida governorByron DonaldsDavid JollyParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Byron Donalds ahead.Polymarket: Byron Donalds 78.5%David Jolly 22.5%Kalshi: Byron Donalds 80.5%David Jolly 20.5%

    Byron Donalds

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Byron Donalds personally.

    Polymarket
    78.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -4.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $26.1K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    80.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    80.0% / 81.0%
    Volume
    153K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Florida
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    David Jolly

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not David Jolly personally.

    Polymarket
    22.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +5.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $30.4K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    20.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    20.0% / 21.0%
    Volume
    188K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Florida
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  4. Georgia governorGeorgia's governor's office is openKeisha Lance BottomsRick JacksonParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Keisha Lance Bottoms ahead.Polymarket: Keisha Lance Bottoms 60.0%Rick Jackson 40.5%Kalshi: Keisha Lance Bottoms 58.5%Rick Jackson 41.0%

    Keisha Lance Bottoms

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Keisha Lance Bottoms personally.

    Polymarket
    60.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $31.0K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    58.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    58.0% / 59.0%
    Volume
    266K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Georgia
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Rick Jackson

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Rick Jackson personally.

    Polymarket
    40.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $36.3K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    41.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.0pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    40.0% / 42.0%
    Volume
    344K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Georgia
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  5. Iowa governorRob SandZach LahnParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Rob Sand ahead.Polymarket: Rob Sand 74.0%Zach Lahn 26.5%Kalshi: Rob Sand 76.5%Zach Lahn 23.5%

    Rob Sand

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Rob Sand personally.

    Polymarket
    74.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -3.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $29.7K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    76.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    76.0% / 77.0%
    Volume
    225K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Iowa
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Zach Lahn

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Zach Lahn personally.

    Polymarket
    26.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +3.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $41.6K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    23.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -2.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    23.0% / 24.0%
    Volume
    247K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Iowa
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  6. Michigan governorJocelyn BensonJohn JamesParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Jocelyn Benson ahead.Polymarket: Jocelyn Benson 90.0%John James 10.5%Kalshi: Jocelyn Benson 88.0%John James 12.0%

    Jocelyn Benson

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Jocelyn Benson personally.

    Polymarket
    90.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +2.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $48.3K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    88.0%
    Recorded span
    7 samples / 6 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    87.0% / 89.0%
    Volume
    71.9K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Michigan
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    John James

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not John James personally.

    Polymarket
    10.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -2.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $152K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    12.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -2.0pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    11.0% / 13.0%
    Volume
    116K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Michigan
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  7. Nevada governorNevada's Republican governor is defending his jobJoe LombardoAaron FordParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Joe Lombardo ahead.Polymarket: Joe Lombardo 59.5%Aaron Ford 41.0%Kalshi: Joe Lombardo 58.5%Aaron Ford 41.5%

    Joe Lombardo

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Joe Lombardo personally.

    Polymarket
    59.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +4.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $49.0K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    58.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    58.0% / 59.0%
    Volume
    222K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Nevada
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Aaron Ford

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Aaron Ford personally.

    Polymarket
    41.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -2.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $22.2K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    41.5%
    Recorded span
    7 samples / 6 intervals; -2.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    41.0% / 42.0%
    Volume
    462K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Nevada
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  8. New York governorKathy HochulBruce BlakemanParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Kathy Hochul ahead.Polymarket: Kathy Hochul 94.5%Bruce Blakeman 4.5%Kalshi: Kathy Hochul 94.5%Bruce Blakeman 5.8%

    Kathy Hochul

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Kathy Hochul personally.

    Polymarket
    94.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $49.2K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    94.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.2pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    94.4% / 94.6%
    Volume
    252K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in New York
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Bruce Blakeman

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Bruce Blakeman personally.

    Polymarket
    4.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $55.2K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    5.8%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -2.2pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    5.5% / 6.2%
    Volume
    623K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in New York
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  9. Ohio governorOhio is choosing a new governorAmy ActonVivek RamaswamyParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Amy Acton ahead.Polymarket: Amy Acton 53.5%Vivek Ramaswamy 47.5%Kalshi: Amy Acton 56.5%Vivek Ramaswamy 45.5%

    Amy Acton

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Amy Acton personally.

    Polymarket
    53.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +5.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $77.0K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    56.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +5.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    56.0% / 57.0%
    Volume
    670K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Ohio
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Vivek Ramaswamy

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Vivek Ramaswamy personally.

    Polymarket
    47.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $94.5K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    45.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -3.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    45.0% / 46.0%
    Volume
    646K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Ohio
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  10. Pennsylvania governorJosh ShapiroStacy GarrityParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Josh Shapiro ahead.Polymarket: Josh Shapiro 95.5%Stacy Garrity 4.5%Kalshi: Josh Shapiro 96.2%Stacy Garrity 4.5%

    Josh Shapiro

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Josh Shapiro personally.

    Polymarket
    95.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $7.3K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Pennsylvania governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    96.2%
    Recorded span
    6 samples / 5 intervals; +0.7pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    96.1% / 96.2%
    Volume
    68.1K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Pennsylvania
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Stacy Garrity

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Stacy Garrity personally.

    Polymarket
    4.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $24.0K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Pennsylvania governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    4.5%
    Recorded span
    5 samples / 4 intervals; +0.4pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    3.6% / 5.3%
    Volume
    372K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Pennsylvania
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  11. Texas governorGreg AbbottGina HinojosaParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Greg Abbott ahead.Polymarket: Greg Abbott 86.5%Gina Hinojosa 12.5%Kalshi: Greg Abbott 87.5%Gina Hinojosa 12.5%

    Greg Abbott

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Greg Abbott personally.

    Polymarket
    86.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.8pp across that span
    Volume
    $26.0K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    87.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    87.0% / 88.0%
    Volume
    136K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Texas
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Gina Hinojosa

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Gina Hinojosa personally.

    Polymarket
    12.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -2.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $32.8K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    12.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    12.0% / 13.0%
    Volume
    553K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Texas
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  12. Wisconsin governorAn open governorshipDavid CrowleyTom TiffanyParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name David Crowley ahead.Polymarket: David Crowley 80.5%Tom Tiffany 19.5%Kalshi: David Crowley 78.5%Tom Tiffany 21.5%

    David Crowley

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not David Crowley personally.

    Polymarket
    80.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +3.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $250K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    78.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +3.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    78.0% / 79.0%
    Volume
    430K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Wisconsin
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Tom Tiffany

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Tom Tiffany personally.

    Polymarket
    19.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -4.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $239K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    21.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -4.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    21.0% / 22.0%
    Volume
    453K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Wisconsin
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
How this desk reads the two booksThe comparison basis, and today's four irreducible facts

Since the previous edition

Comparable with the 2026-08-20 edition — the first pair this desk can subtract.

Today's four irreducible facts

Each claim keeps the two venues separate.

  1. House control

    Democratic-control contracts:

    Polymarket 88.5%Kalshi 85.5%

  2. Senate control

    Democratic-control contracts:

    Polymarket 49.5%Kalshi 46.5%

    Recorded-span changes: Polymarket -1.0pp; Kalshi -2.5pp. Both books clear the direction threshold.

  3. Disputed leaders

    The two books name the same leader in every race on this board.

  4. Iowa Senate

    Ashley Hinson has the widest current candidate-side venue gap, 3.0pp.

    Polymarket 60.5%Kalshi 57.5%

Cross-venue coverage

Every race on this board is priced by both books.

Method and scope

  • These are trader-implied market prices, not polls and not POLI forecasts.
  • Polymarket volume is USD notional; Kalshi volume is contracts. They are not comparable, so this page does not combine or weight them.
  • Separately traded candidate contracts are independent and do not have to sum to 100%.
  • This is a dated snapshot observed Aug 24, 9:50 PM CT, not a live feed.
  • This edition contains 22 races from its published snapshots: no polls, no vote counts, and no inferred contests.
  • Edition changes publish only when stable race identity, contest kind, market scope, and venue identity make subtraction safe.

Election archive

  1. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  2. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  3. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  4. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  5. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  6. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  7. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  8. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  9. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  10. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  11. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  12. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  13. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  14. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.