Political Guyentist

Archive edition

Markets, not pollsPolymarketKalshi

Elections

Snapshot

The Senate books are 2.0pp apart. The books do not name different leaders in any statewide race.

Return to the latest elections edition

Control of Congress

Current contract prices, stated book by book.

House

Democratic control of the House

Polymarket89.5%heavily favoured
Kalshi84.5%clearly ahead

No clear movePolymarket +1.0pp; Kalshi -0.5pp across each venue's recorded span.

No House district markets in this data.

Senate

Democrats take the Senate

Polymarket50.5%a coin flip
Kalshi48.5%a coin flip

Toward the DemocratsPolymarket +1.0pp; Kalshi +2.5pp across each venue's recorded span.

Senate seat arithmetic

Republicans hold 53 of 100; 51 is a majority. The other 47 need a net 4.

The aggregate control contract does not identify which individual seats would supply that net gain.

The current race ledger

10 Senate races, then 12 governors, each group by state, A to Z.

12 races have snapshot data but no desk note yet. They still appear in full: North Carolina Senate, Georgia Senate, Nebraska Senate, New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary, Iowa governor, Alaska governor, Michigan governor, Arizona governor, Texas governor, New York governor, Pennsylvania governor, Florida governor.

Senate

  1. Alaska SenateA sitting Republican senator is defending this seatMary PeltolaDan SullivanCandidate contracts price the named people.Both venues name Mary Peltola ahead.Polymarket: Mary Peltola 65.0%Dan Sullivan 35.5%Kalshi: Mary Peltola 64.0%Dan Sullivan 36.5%

    Mary Peltola

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    65.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +3.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $237K
    Question
    Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    64.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +3.0pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    63.0% / 65.0%
    Volume
    73.5K contracts
    Question
    Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska Senate race?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Dan Sullivan

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    35.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -4.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $135K
    Question
    Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    36.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -5.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    36.0% / 37.0%
    Volume
    71.6K contracts
    Question
    Will Dan Sullivan win the 2026 Alaska Senate race?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  2. Georgia SenateJon OssoffMike CollinsParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Jon Ossoff ahead.Polymarket: Jon Ossoff 93.5%Mike Collins 6.3%Kalshi: Jon Ossoff 92.5%Mike Collins 7.6%

    Jon Ossoff

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Jon Ossoff personally.

    Polymarket
    93.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $48.4K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    92.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.0pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    92.2% / 92.7%
    Volume
    348K contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in Georgia?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Mike Collins

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Mike Collins personally.

    Polymarket
    6.3%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.6pp across that span
    Volume
    $74.5K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    7.6%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.2pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    7.4% / 7.8%
    Volume
    812K contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Georgia?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  3. Iowa SenateAn open seat, with no incumbent runningAshley HinsonJosh TurekParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Ashley Hinson ahead.Polymarket: Ashley Hinson 60.5%Josh Turek 40.5%Kalshi: Ashley Hinson 61.5%Josh Turek 38.0%

    Ashley Hinson

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Ashley Hinson personally.

    Polymarket
    60.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $109K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    61.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    60.0% / 63.0%
    Volume
    7.4K contracts
    Question
    Who will win the 2026 Iowa Senate election?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Josh Turek

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Josh Turek personally.

    Polymarket
    40.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $106K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    38.0%
    Recorded span
    6 samples / 5 intervals; -6.0pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    36.0% / 40.0%
    Volume
    8.9K contracts
    Question
    Who will win the 2026 Iowa Senate election?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  4. Maine SenateDemocrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrewTroy JacksonSusan CollinsParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Troy Jackson ahead.Polymarket: Troy Jackson 69.5%Susan Collins 31.0%Kalshi: Troy Jackson 69.5%Susan Collins 30.5%

    Troy Jackson

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Troy Jackson personally.

    Polymarket
    69.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $732K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    69.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    69.0% / 70.0%
    Volume
    1.9M contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in Maine?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Susan Collins

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Susan Collins personally.

    Polymarket
    31.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $495K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    30.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -2.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    30.0% / 31.0%
    Volume
    2.6M contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Maine?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  5. Michigan SenateAbdul El-SayedMike RogersParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Abdul El-Sayed ahead.Polymarket: Abdul El-Sayed 64.5%Mike Rogers 35.5%Kalshi: Abdul El-Sayed 63.5%Mike Rogers 37.5%

    Abdul El-Sayed

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Abdul El-Sayed personally.

    Polymarket
    64.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $330K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    63.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +4.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    63.0% / 64.0%
    Volume
    699K contracts
    Question
    Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Mike Rogers

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Mike Rogers personally.

    Polymarket
    35.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -2.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $279K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    37.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -3.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    37.0% / 38.0%
    Volume
    759K contracts
    Question
    Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  6. Nebraska SenatePete RickettsParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Pete Ricketts ahead.Polymarket: Pete Ricketts 70.5%Kalshi: Pete Ricketts 69.5%

    Pete Ricketts

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Pete Ricketts personally.

    Polymarket
    70.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $90.8K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    69.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    69.0% / 70.0%
    Volume
    283K contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Nebraska?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  7. New Hampshire Democratic Senate primaryChris PappasCandidate contracts price the named people.Both venues name Chris Pappas ahead.Polymarket: Chris Pappas 93.0%Kalshi: Chris Pappas 94.4%

    Chris Pappas

    Democratic · Provisional nominee · Candidate contract

    The snapshot identifies Chris Pappas as a primary leader, not a settled nominee.

    Polymarket
    93.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -2.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $47.3K
    Question
    Will Chris Pappas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    94.4%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.6pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    93.8% / 95.1%
    Volume
    100K contracts
    Question
    Will Chris Pappas be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
    New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary: 2 candidates, Kalshi only

    This nomination field sits beneath Chris Pappas; it is not a second governor race.

    1. Chris Pappas
      Polymarket
      93.0%
      Recorded span
      8 samples / 7 intervals; -2.0pp across that span
      Volume
      $47.3K
      Question
      Will Chris Pappas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?
      Observed
      Open Polymarket source
      Kalshi
      94.4%
      Recorded span
      8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.6pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      93.8% / 95.1%
      Volume
      100K contracts
      Question
      Will Chris Pappas be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    2. Karishma Manzur
      Polymarket
      6.7%
      Recorded span
      8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.8pp across that span
      Volume
      $51.3K
      Question
      Will Karishma Manzur be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?
      Observed
      Open Polymarket source
      Kalshi
      5.3%
      Recorded span
      8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.2pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      4.4% / 6.1%
      Volume
      126K contracts
      Question
      Will Karishma Manzur be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
  8. North Carolina SenateRoy CooperMichael WhatleyParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Roy Cooper ahead.Polymarket: Roy Cooper 91.5%Michael Whatley 9.0%Kalshi: Roy Cooper 91.2%Michael Whatley 8.8%

    Roy Cooper

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Roy Cooper personally.

    Polymarket
    91.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $40.8K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    91.2%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.0pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    91.1% / 91.3%
    Volume
    1.3M contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in North Carolina?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Michael Whatley

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Michael Whatley personally.

    Polymarket
    9.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $59.7K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    8.8%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.1pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    8.3% / 9.2%
    Volume
    434K contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in North Carolina?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  9. Ohio SenateA special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate termSherrod BrownJon HustedParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues report matching prices.Polymarket: Sherrod Brown 54.5%Jon Husted 45.5%Kalshi: Sherrod Brown 54.5%Jon Husted 45.5%

    Sherrod Brown

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Sherrod Brown personally.

    Polymarket
    54.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $110K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    54.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +3.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    54.0% / 55.0%
    Volume
    1.0M contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in Ohio?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Jon Husted

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Jon Husted personally.

    Polymarket
    45.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -2.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $78.0K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    45.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -3.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    45.0% / 46.0%
    Volume
    1.5M contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Ohio?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  10. Texas SenateKen PaxtonJames TalaricoParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name James Talarico ahead.Polymarket: Ken Paxton 49.5%James Talarico 49.5%Kalshi: Ken Paxton 50.5%James Talarico 50.5%

    Ken Paxton

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Ken Paxton personally.

    Polymarket
    49.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $524K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    50.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -2.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    50.0% / 51.0%
    Volume
    5.7M contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    James Talarico

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not James Talarico personally.

    Polymarket
    49.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $442K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    50.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +3.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    50.0% / 51.0%
    Volume
    4.3M contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in Texas?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

Governors

Important statewide races; they do not determine control of Congress.

  1. Alaska governorBernadette WilsonTom BegichCandidate contracts price the named people.Both venues name Bernadette Wilson ahead.Polymarket: Bernadette Wilson 35.5%Tom Begich 1.4%Kalshi: Bernadette Wilson 35.5%Tom Begich 0.5%

    Bernadette Wilson

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    35.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $167K
    Question
    Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    35.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -2.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    35.0% / 36.0%
    Volume
    37.7K contracts
    Question
    Who will win the governorship in Alaska?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Tom Begich

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    1.4%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -18pp across that span
    Volume
    $158K
    Question
    Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    0.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -21pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    0.1% / 0.9%
    Volume
    226K contracts
    Question
    Who will win the governorship in Alaska?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  2. Arizona governorKatie HobbsAndy BiggsParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.One venue only; no cross-venue comparison.Polymarket: Not pricedKalshi: Katie Hobbs 87.5%Andy Biggs 13.5%

    Katie Hobbs

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Katie Hobbs personally.

    Polymarket
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Kalshi
    87.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    87.0% / 88.0%
    Volume
    304K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Arizona
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Andy Biggs

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Andy Biggs personally.

    Polymarket
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Kalshi
    13.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    13.0% / 14.0%
    Volume
    233K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Arizona
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  3. Florida governorByron DonaldsDavid JollyParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.One venue only; no cross-venue comparison.Polymarket: Not pricedKalshi: Byron Donalds 83.5%David Jolly 18.0%

    Byron Donalds

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Byron Donalds personally.

    Polymarket
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Kalshi
    83.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +2.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    83.0% / 84.0%
    Volume
    181K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Florida
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    David Jolly

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not David Jolly personally.

    Polymarket
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Kalshi
    18.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -3.0pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    17.0% / 19.0%
    Volume
    242K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Florida
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  4. Georgia governorGeorgia's governor's office is openKeisha Lance BottomsRick JacksonParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Keisha Lance Bottoms ahead.Polymarket: Keisha Lance Bottoms 59.0%Rick Jackson 39.0%Kalshi: Keisha Lance Bottoms 59.5%Rick Jackson 40.5%

    Keisha Lance Bottoms

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Keisha Lance Bottoms personally.

    Polymarket
    59.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $32.4K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    59.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    59.0% / 60.0%
    Volume
    271K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Georgia
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Rick Jackson

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Rick Jackson personally.

    Polymarket
    39.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $36.8K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    40.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    40.0% / 41.0%
    Volume
    358K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Georgia
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  5. Iowa governorRob SandZach LahnParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Rob Sand ahead.Polymarket: Rob Sand 74.5%Zach Lahn 25.5%Kalshi: Rob Sand 74.5%Zach Lahn 26.5%

    Rob Sand

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Rob Sand personally.

    Polymarket
    74.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $31.0K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    74.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -3.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    74.0% / 75.0%
    Volume
    246K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Iowa
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Zach Lahn

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Zach Lahn personally.

    Polymarket
    25.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $43.7K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    26.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +3.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    26.0% / 27.0%
    Volume
    286K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Iowa
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  6. Michigan governorJocelyn BensonJohn JamesParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.One venue only; no cross-venue comparison.Polymarket: Not pricedKalshi: Jocelyn Benson 88.6%John James 11.5%

    Jocelyn Benson

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Jocelyn Benson personally.

    Polymarket
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Kalshi
    88.6%
    Recorded span
    6 samples / 5 intervals; -0.4pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    87.0% / 90.2%
    Volume
    73.0K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Michigan
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    John James

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not John James personally.

    Polymarket
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Kalshi
    11.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -2.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    11.0% / 12.0%
    Volume
    122K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Michigan
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  7. Nevada governorNevada's Republican governor is defending his jobJoe LombardoAaron FordParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Joe Lombardo ahead.Polymarket: Joe Lombardo 59.5%Aaron Ford 41.0%Kalshi: Joe Lombardo 59.0%Aaron Ford 41.0%

    Joe Lombardo

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Joe Lombardo personally.

    Polymarket
    59.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $49.2K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    59.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -2.0pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    58.0% / 60.0%
    Volume
    226K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Nevada
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Aaron Ford

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Aaron Ford personally.

    Polymarket
    41.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $22.2K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    41.0%
    Recorded span
    7 samples / 6 intervals; -1.0pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    40.0% / 42.0%
    Volume
    482K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Nevada
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  8. New York governorKathy HochulBruce BlakemanParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.One venue only; no cross-venue comparison.Polymarket: Not pricedKalshi: Kathy Hochul 94.2%Bruce Blakeman 6.0%

    Kathy Hochul

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Kathy Hochul personally.

    Polymarket
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Kalshi
    94.2%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    94.1% / 94.4%
    Volume
    271K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in New York
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Bruce Blakeman

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Bruce Blakeman personally.

    Polymarket
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Kalshi
    6.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.7pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    5.8% / 6.3%
    Volume
    663K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in New York
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  9. Ohio governorOhio is choosing a new governorAmy ActonVivek RamaswamyParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Amy Acton ahead.Polymarket: Amy Acton 53.5%Vivek Ramaswamy 45.5%Kalshi: Amy Acton 56.5%Vivek Ramaswamy 43.5%

    Amy Acton

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Amy Acton personally.

    Polymarket
    53.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +3.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $79.3K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    56.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +4.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    56.0% / 57.0%
    Volume
    692K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Ohio
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Vivek Ramaswamy

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Vivek Ramaswamy personally.

    Polymarket
    45.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -4.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $95.0K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    43.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -5.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    43.0% / 44.0%
    Volume
    723K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Ohio
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  10. Pennsylvania governorJosh ShapiroStacy GarrityParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.One venue only; no cross-venue comparison.Polymarket: Not pricedKalshi: Josh Shapiro 97.2%Stacy Garrity 3.6%

    Josh Shapiro

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Josh Shapiro personally.

    Polymarket
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Kalshi
    97.2%
    Recorded span
    5 samples / 4 intervals; -0.6pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    96.7% / 97.7%
    Volume
    99.1K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Pennsylvania
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Stacy Garrity

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Stacy Garrity personally.

    Polymarket
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Kalshi
    3.6%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.9pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    2.7% / 4.5%
    Volume
    391K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Pennsylvania
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  11. Texas governorGreg AbbottGina HinojosaParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.One venue only; no cross-venue comparison.Polymarket: Not pricedKalshi: Greg Abbott 85.5%Gina Hinojosa 15.0%

    Greg Abbott

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Greg Abbott personally.

    Polymarket
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Kalshi
    85.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -2.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    85.0% / 86.0%
    Volume
    153K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Texas
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Gina Hinojosa

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Gina Hinojosa personally.

    Polymarket
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Kalshi
    15.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.0pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    14.0% / 16.0%
    Volume
    577K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Texas
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  12. Wisconsin governorAn open governorshipDavid CrowleyTom TiffanyParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.One venue only; no cross-venue comparison.Polymarket: Not pricedKalshi: David Crowley 79.5%Tom Tiffany 20.5%

    David Crowley

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not David Crowley personally.

    Polymarket
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Kalshi
    79.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    79.0% / 80.0%
    Volume
    442K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Wisconsin
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Tom Tiffany

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Tom Tiffany personally.

    Polymarket
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Kalshi
    20.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    20.0% / 21.0%
    Volume
    461K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Wisconsin
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
How this desk reads the two booksThe comparison basis, and today's four irreducible facts

Since the previous edition

This edition predates stable race identifiers, so it cannot be compared with another edition. Contest names drift between editions, and joining on them would report moves that never happened.

Today's four irreducible facts

Each claim keeps the two venues separate.

  1. House control

    Democratic-control contracts:

    Polymarket 89.5%Kalshi 84.5%

  2. Senate control

    Democratic-control contracts:

    Polymarket 50.5%Kalshi 48.5%

    Recorded-span changes: Polymarket +1.0pp; Kalshi +2.5pp. Both books clear the direction threshold.

  3. Disputed leaders

    The two books name the same leader in every race on this board.

  4. Ohio governor

    Amy Acton has the widest current candidate-side venue gap, 3.0pp.

    Polymarket 53.5%Kalshi 56.5%

Arizona governor — and 6 more

Kalshi only; no cross-venue comparison.

Polymarket: Not pricedKalshi: Katie Hobbs 87.5%Andy Biggs 13.5%

Method and scope

  • These are trader-implied market prices, not polls and not POLI forecasts.
  • Polymarket volume is USD notional; Kalshi volume is contracts. They are not comparable, so this page does not combine or weight them.
  • Separately traded candidate contracts are independent and do not have to sum to 100%.
  • This is a dated snapshot observed Aug 30, 7:52 AM CT, not a live feed.
  • This edition contains 22 races from its published snapshots: no polls, no vote counts, and no inferred contests.
  • Edition changes publish only when stable race identity, contest kind, market scope, and venue identity make subtraction safe.

Election archive

  1. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  2. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  3. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  4. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  5. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  6. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  7. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  8. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  9. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  10. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  11. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  12. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  13. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  14. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.