Political Guyentist

Archive edition

Markets, not pollsPolymarketKalshi

Elections

Snapshot

The Senate books are 2.0pp apart. They name different leaders in Texas Senate.

Return to the latest elections edition

Control of Congress

Current contract prices, stated book by book.

House

Democratic control of the House

Polymarket88.5%heavily favoured
Kalshi84.5%clearly ahead

No clear movePolymarket 0.0pp; Kalshi -0.5pp across each venue's recorded span.

No House district markets in this data.

Senate

Democrats take the Senate

Polymarket50.5%a coin flip
Kalshi48.5%a coin flip

No clear movePolymarket 0.0pp; Kalshi +2.5pp across each venue's recorded span.

Senate seat arithmetic

Republicans hold 53 of 100; 51 is a majority. The other 47 need a net 4.

The aggregate control contract does not identify which individual seats would supply that net gain.

The current race ledger

10 Senate races, then 12 governors, each group by state, A to Z.

12 races have snapshot data but no desk note yet. They still appear in full: North Carolina Senate, Georgia Senate, Nebraska Senate, New Hampshire Senate primary, Iowa governor, Alaska governor, Michigan governor, Arizona governor, Texas governor, New York governor, Pennsylvania governor, Florida governor.

Senate

  1. Alaska SenateA sitting Republican senator is defending this seatMary PeltolaDan SullivanCandidate contracts price the named people.Both venues name Mary Peltola ahead.Polymarket: Mary Peltola 64.5%Dan Sullivan 35.5%Kalshi: Mary Peltola 63.0%Dan Sullivan 37.0%

    Mary Peltola

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    64.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +8.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $236K
    Question
    Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    63.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.0pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    62.0% / 64.0%
    Volume
    73.1K contracts
    Question
    Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska Senate race?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Dan Sullivan

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    35.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -7.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $135K
    Question
    Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    37.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -5.0pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    36.0% / 38.0%
    Volume
    68.1K contracts
    Question
    Will Dan Sullivan win the 2026 Alaska Senate race?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  2. Georgia SenateJon OssoffMike CollinsCandidate contracts price the named people.Both venues name Jon Ossoff ahead.Polymarket: Jon Ossoff 93.5%Mike Collins 6.3%Kalshi: Jon Ossoff 92.5%Mike Collins 7.6%

    Jon Ossoff

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    93.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $48.4K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    92.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.4pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    92.2% / 92.7%
    Volume
    348K contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in Georgia?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Mike Collins

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    6.3%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $74.5K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    7.6%
    Bid / ask
    7.5% / 7.8%
    Volume
    811K contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Georgia?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  3. Iowa SenateAn open seat, with no incumbent runningAshley HinsonJosh TurekCandidate contracts price the named people.Both venues name Ashley Hinson ahead.Polymarket: Ashley Hinson 60.5%Josh Turek 40.5%Kalshi: Ashley Hinson 62.5%Josh Turek 37.5%

    Ashley Hinson

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    60.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $109K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    62.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +2.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    62.0% / 63.0%
    Volume
    7.2K contracts
    Question
    Who will win the 2026 Iowa Senate election?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Josh Turek

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    40.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $106K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    37.5%
    Recorded span
    7 samples / 6 intervals; -8.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    35.0% / 40.0%
    Volume
    8.9K contracts
    Question
    Who will win the 2026 Iowa Senate election?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  4. Maine SenateDemocrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrewTroy JacksonSusan CollinsCandidate contracts price the named people.Both venues name Troy Jackson ahead.Polymarket: Troy Jackson 69.5%Susan Collins 31.5%Kalshi: Troy Jackson 69.5%Susan Collins 30.5%

    Troy Jackson

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    69.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $732K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    69.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    69.0% / 70.0%
    Volume
    1.9M contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in Maine?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Susan Collins

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    31.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $495K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    30.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    30.0% / 31.0%
    Volume
    2.6M contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Maine?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  5. Michigan SenateAbdul El-SayedMike RogersCandidate contracts price the named people.Both venues name Abdul El-Sayed ahead.Polymarket: Abdul El-Sayed 64.5%Mike Rogers 35.5%Kalshi: Abdul El-Sayed 61.5%Mike Rogers 38.5%

    Abdul El-Sayed

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    64.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $330K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    61.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    61.0% / 62.0%
    Volume
    690K contracts
    Question
    Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Mike Rogers

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    35.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $279K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    38.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -3.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    38.0% / 39.0%
    Volume
    757K contracts
    Question
    Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  6. Nebraska SenatePete RickettsCandidate contracts price the named people.Both venues name Pete Ricketts ahead.Polymarket: Pete Ricketts 70.5%Kalshi: Pete Ricketts 69.5%

    Pete Ricketts

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    70.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $90.8K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    69.5%
    Bid / ask
    69.0% / 70.0%
    Volume
    282K contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Nebraska?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  7. New Hampshire Senate primaryChris PappasCandidate contracts price the named people.Both venues name Chris Pappas ahead.Polymarket: Chris Pappas 94.3%Kalshi: Chris Pappas 94.2%

    Chris Pappas

    Democratic · Provisional nominee · Candidate contract

    The snapshot identifies Chris Pappas as a primary leader, not a settled nominee.

    Polymarket
    94.3%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.8pp across that span
    Volume
    $34.6K
    Question
    Will Chris Pappas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    94.2%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    94.2% / 94.3%
    Volume
    90.3K contracts
    Question
    Will Chris Pappas be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  8. North Carolina SenateRoy CooperMichael WhatleyCandidate contracts price the named people.Both venues name Roy Cooper ahead.Polymarket: Roy Cooper 91.5%Michael Whatley 8.5%Kalshi: Roy Cooper 92.2%Michael Whatley 8.3%

    Roy Cooper

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    91.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $40.8K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    92.2%
    Bid / ask
    91.7% / 92.6%
    Volume
    1.3M contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in North Carolina?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Michael Whatley

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    8.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $59.7K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    8.3%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.4pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    7.8% / 8.8%
    Volume
    368K contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in North Carolina?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  9. Ohio SenateA special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate termSherrod BrownJon HustedCandidate contracts price the named people.Both venues name Sherrod Brown ahead.Polymarket: Sherrod Brown 54.5%Jon Husted 45.5%Kalshi: Sherrod Brown 53.5%Jon Husted 46.5%

    Sherrod Brown

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    54.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $110K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    53.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    53.0% / 54.0%
    Volume
    987K contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in Ohio?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Jon Husted

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    45.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -2.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $78.0K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    46.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -2.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    46.0% / 47.0%
    Volume
    1.4M contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Ohio?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  10. Texas SenateKen PaxtonJames TalaricoCandidate contracts price the named people.The books name different leaders.Polymarket: Ken Paxton 48.5%James Talarico 49.5%Kalshi: Ken Paxton 50.5%James Talarico 49.5%

    Ken Paxton

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    48.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $524K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    50.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -4.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    50.0% / 51.0%
    Volume
    5.6M contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    James Talarico

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    49.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -2.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $439K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    49.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    49.0% / 50.0%
    Volume
    4.2M contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in Texas?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

Governors

Important statewide races; they do not determine control of Congress.

  1. Alaska governorBernadette WilsonTom BegichCandidate contracts price the named people.Both venues name Bernadette Wilson ahead.Polymarket: Bernadette Wilson 35.5%Tom Begich 1.5%Kalshi: Bernadette Wilson 35.5%Tom Begich 0.9%

    Bernadette Wilson

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    35.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $167K
    Question
    Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    35.5%
    Bid / ask
    35.0% / 36.0%
    Volume
    37.7K contracts
    Question
    Who will win the governorship in Alaska?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Tom Begich

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    1.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -18pp across that span
    Volume
    $157K
    Question
    Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    0.9%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -17pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    0.5% / 1.2%
    Volume
    224K contracts
    Question
    Who will win the governorship in Alaska?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  2. Arizona governorKatie HobbsAndy BiggsCandidate contracts price the named people.One venue only; no cross-venue comparison.Polymarket: Not pricedKalshi: Katie Hobbs 86.5%Andy Biggs 13.5%

    Katie Hobbs

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Kalshi
    86.5%
    Bid / ask
    86.0% / 87.0%
    Volume
    304K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Arizona
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Andy Biggs

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Kalshi
    13.5%
    Bid / ask
    13.0% / 14.0%
    Volume
    232K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Arizona
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  3. Florida governorByron DonaldsDavid JollyCandidate contracts price the named people.One venue only; no cross-venue comparison.Polymarket: Not pricedKalshi: Byron Donalds 83.5%David Jolly 17.5%

    Byron Donalds

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Kalshi
    83.5%
    Bid / ask
    83.0% / 84.0%
    Volume
    179K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Florida
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    David Jolly

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Kalshi
    17.5%
    Bid / ask
    17.0% / 18.0%
    Volume
    221K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Florida
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  4. Georgia governorGeorgia's governor's office is openKeisha Lance BottomsRick JacksonCandidate contracts price the named people.Both venues name Keisha Lance Bottoms ahead.Polymarket: Keisha Lance Bottoms 59.0%Rick Jackson 40.0%Kalshi: Keisha Lance Bottoms 59.5%Rick Jackson 41.5%

    Keisha Lance Bottoms

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    59.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $32.4K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    59.5%
    Bid / ask
    59.0% / 60.0%
    Volume
    271K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Georgia
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Rick Jackson

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    40.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $36.8K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    41.5%
    Bid / ask
    41.0% / 42.0%
    Volume
    357K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Georgia
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  5. Iowa governorRob SandZach LahnCandidate contracts price the named people.Both venues name Rob Sand ahead.Polymarket: Rob Sand 74.5%Zach Lahn 25.5%Kalshi: Rob Sand 74.5%Zach Lahn 26.5%

    Rob Sand

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    74.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $31.0K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    74.5%
    Bid / ask
    74.0% / 75.0%
    Volume
    244K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Iowa
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Zach Lahn

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    25.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $43.5K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    26.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +2.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    26.0% / 27.0%
    Volume
    285K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Iowa
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  6. Michigan governorJocelyn BensonJohn JamesCandidate contracts price the named people.One venue only; no cross-venue comparison.Polymarket: Not pricedKalshi: Jocelyn Benson 89.1%John James 10.7%

    Jocelyn Benson

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Kalshi
    89.1%
    Recorded span
    6 samples / 5 intervals; +2.1pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    87.0% / 91.3%
    Volume
    72.5K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Michigan
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    John James

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Kalshi
    10.7%
    Bid / ask
    9.3% / 12.0%
    Volume
    121K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Michigan
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  7. Nevada governorNevada's Republican governor is defending his jobJoe LombardoAaron FordCandidate contracts price the named people.Both venues name Joe Lombardo ahead.Polymarket: Joe Lombardo 59.5%Aaron Ford 41.0%Kalshi: Joe Lombardo 59.0%Aaron Ford 41.0%

    Joe Lombardo

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    59.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $49.2K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    59.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.0pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    58.0% / 60.0%
    Volume
    226K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Nevada
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Aaron Ford

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    41.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $22.2K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    41.0%
    Bid / ask
    40.0% / 42.0%
    Volume
    482K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Nevada
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  8. New York governorKathy HochulBruce BlakemanCandidate contracts price the named people.One venue only; no cross-venue comparison.Polymarket: Not pricedKalshi: Kathy Hochul 94.3%Bruce Blakeman 6.0%

    Kathy Hochul

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Kalshi
    94.3%
    Bid / ask
    94.2% / 94.4%
    Volume
    270K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in New York
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Bruce Blakeman

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Kalshi
    6.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.3pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    5.8% / 6.2%
    Volume
    656K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in New York
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  9. Ohio governorOhio is choosing a new governorAmy ActonVivek RamaswamyCandidate contracts price the named people.Both venues name Amy Acton ahead.Polymarket: Amy Acton 53.5%Vivek Ramaswamy 46.5%Kalshi: Amy Acton 55.5%Vivek Ramaswamy 44.5%

    Amy Acton

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    53.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +4.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $79.3K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    55.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +3.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    55.0% / 56.0%
    Volume
    681K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Ohio
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Vivek Ramaswamy

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    46.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -3.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $95.0K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    44.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -4.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    44.0% / 45.0%
    Volume
    715K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Ohio
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  10. Pennsylvania governorJosh ShapiroStacy GarrityCandidate contracts price the named people.One venue only; no cross-venue comparison.Polymarket: Not pricedKalshi: Josh Shapiro 97.2%Stacy Garrity 3.9%

    Josh Shapiro

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Kalshi
    97.2%
    Recorded span
    5 samples / 4 intervals; -0.6pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    96.7% / 97.7%
    Volume
    99.1K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Pennsylvania
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Stacy Garrity

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Kalshi
    3.9%
    Bid / ask
    3.0% / 4.8%
    Volume
    391K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Pennsylvania
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  11. Texas governorGreg AbbottGina HinojosaCandidate contracts price the named people.One venue only; no cross-venue comparison.Polymarket: Not pricedKalshi: Greg Abbott 85.5%Gina Hinojosa 15.5%

    Greg Abbott

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Kalshi
    85.5%
    Bid / ask
    85.0% / 86.0%
    Volume
    152K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Texas
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Gina Hinojosa

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Kalshi
    15.5%
    Bid / ask
    15.0% / 16.0%
    Volume
    575K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Texas
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  12. Wisconsin governorAn open governorshipDavid CrowleyTom TiffanyCandidate contracts price the named people.One venue only; no cross-venue comparison.Polymarket: Not pricedKalshi: David Crowley 79.5%Tom Tiffany 20.5%

    David Crowley

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Kalshi
    79.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    79.0% / 80.0%
    Volume
    435K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Wisconsin
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Tom Tiffany

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Kalshi
    20.5%
    Bid / ask
    20.0% / 21.0%
    Volume
    461K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Wisconsin
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
How this desk reads the two booksThe comparison basis, and today's four irreducible facts

Since the previous edition

This edition predates stable race identifiers, so it cannot be compared with another edition. Contest names drift between editions, and joining on them would report moves that never happened.

Today's four irreducible facts

Each claim keeps the two venues separate.

  1. House control

    Democratic-control contracts:

    Polymarket 88.5%Kalshi 84.5%

  2. Senate control

    Democratic-control contracts:

    Polymarket 50.5%Kalshi 48.5%

    Recorded-span changes: Polymarket 0.0pp; Kalshi +2.5pp. No clear move.

  3. Texas Senate

    The books name different leaders.

    Polymarket James Talarico leadsKalshi Ken Paxton leadsPolymarket: Ken Paxton 48.5%James Talarico 49.5%Kalshi: Ken Paxton 50.5%James Talarico 49.5%

  4. Iowa Senate

    Josh Turek has the widest current candidate-side venue gap, 3.0pp.

    Polymarket 40.5%Kalshi 37.5%

Arizona governor — and 6 more

Kalshi only; no cross-venue comparison.

Polymarket: Not pricedKalshi: Katie Hobbs 86.5%Andy Biggs 13.5%

Method and scope

  • These are trader-implied market prices, not polls and not POLI forecasts.
  • Polymarket volume is USD notional; Kalshi volume is contracts. They are not comparable, so this page does not combine or weight them.
  • Separately traded candidate contracts are independent and do not have to sum to 100%.
  • This is a dated snapshot observed Aug 29, 9:55 AM CT, not a live feed.
  • This edition contains 22 races from its published snapshots: no polls, no vote counts, and no inferred contests.
  • Edition changes publish only when stable race identity, contest kind, market scope, and venue identity make subtraction safe.

Election archive

  1. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  2. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  3. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  4. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  5. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  6. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  7. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  8. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  9. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  10. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  11. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  12. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  13. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  14. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.