Political Guyentist

Archive edition

Markets, not pollsPolymarketKalshi

Elections

Snapshot

The Senate books agree exactly at 45.5% and move in opposite recorded directions. They name different leaders in Ohio Senate.

Return to the latest elections edition

Control of Congress

Current contract prices, stated book by book.

House

Democratic control of the House

Polymarket88.5%heavily favoured
Kalshi84.5%clearly ahead

Toward the DemocratsPolymarket +2.0pp; Kalshi +1.5pp across each venue's recorded span.

No House district markets in this data.

Senate

Democrats take the Senate

Polymarket45.5%a coin flip
Kalshi45.5%a coin flip

No clear movePolymarket +1.0pp; Kalshi -0.5pp across each venue's recorded span.

Senate seat arithmetic

Republicans hold 53 of 100; 51 is a majority. The other 47 need a net 4.

The aggregate control contract does not identify which individual seats would supply that net gain.

The current race ledger

6 Senate races, then 4 governors, each group by state, A to Z.

Senate

  1. Alaska SenateA sitting Republican senator is defending this seatMary PeltolaDan SullivanCandidate contracts price the named people.Both venues name Mary Peltola ahead.Polymarket: Mary Peltola 52.5%Dan Sullivan 48.5%Kalshi: Mary Peltola 54.5%Dan Sullivan 46.0%

    Mary Peltola

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    52.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -3.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $187K
    Question
    Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    54.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    52.0% / 57.0%
    Volume
    48.9K contracts
    Question
    Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska Senate race?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Dan Sullivan

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    48.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +4.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $113K
    Question
    Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    46.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.0pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    44.0% / 48.0%
    Volume
    53.2K contracts
    Question
    Will Dan Sullivan win the 2026 Alaska Senate race?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  2. Iowa SenateAn open seat, with no incumbent runningAshley HinsonJosh TurekCandidate contracts price the named people.One venue only; no cross-venue comparison.Polymarket: Not pricedKalshi: Ashley Hinson 64.5%Josh Turek 35.0%

    Ashley Hinson

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Kalshi
    64.5%
    Recorded span
    5 samples / 4 intervals; +5.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    63.0% / 66.0%
    Volume
    3.6K contracts
    Question
    Who will win the 2026 Iowa Senate election?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Josh Turek

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Kalshi
    35.0%
    Recorded span
    7 samples / 6 intervals; -11pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    33.0% / 37.0%
    Volume
    7.5K contracts
    Question
    Who will win the 2026 Iowa Senate election?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  3. Maine SenateDemocrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrewTroy JacksonSusan CollinsParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Troy Jackson ahead.Polymarket: Troy Jackson 68.5%Susan Collins 32.5%Kalshi: Troy Jackson 64.5%Susan Collins 36.5%

    Troy Jackson

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Troy Jackson personally.

    Polymarket
    68.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $709K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    64.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    64.0% / 65.0%
    Volume
    1.8M contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in Maine?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Susan Collins

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Susan Collins personally.

    Polymarket
    32.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $420K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    36.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    36.0% / 37.0%
    Volume
    2.0M contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Maine?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  4. Michigan SenateAbdul El-SayedMike RogersParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Abdul El-Sayed ahead.Polymarket: Abdul El-Sayed 59.5%Mike Rogers 41.5%Kalshi: Abdul El-Sayed 54.5%Mike Rogers 45.5%

    Abdul El-Sayed

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Abdul El-Sayed personally.

    Polymarket
    59.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -7.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $150K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    54.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -14pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    54.0% / 55.0%
    Volume
    366K contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in Michigan?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Mike Rogers

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Mike Rogers personally.

    Polymarket
    41.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +7.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $140K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    45.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +12pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    45.0% / 46.0%
    Volume
    717K contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Michigan?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  5. Ohio SenateA special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate termSherrod BrownJon HustedParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.The books name different leaders.Polymarket: Sherrod Brown 51.5%Jon Husted 49.5%Kalshi: Sherrod Brown 48.5%Jon Husted 51.5%

    Sherrod Brown

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Sherrod Brown personally.

    Polymarket
    51.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $70.8K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    48.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -4.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    48.0% / 49.0%
    Volume
    552K contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in Ohio?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Jon Husted

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Jon Husted personally.

    Polymarket
    49.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $58.1K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    51.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +4.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    51.0% / 52.0%
    Volume
    475K contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Ohio?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  6. Texas SenateKen PaxtonJames TalaricoParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues report matching prices.Polymarket: Ken Paxton 50.5%James Talarico 49.5%Kalshi: Ken Paxton 50.5%James Talarico 49.5%

    Ken Paxton

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Ken Paxton personally.

    Polymarket
    50.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $373K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    50.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -4.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    50.0% / 51.0%
    Volume
    4.3M contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    James Talarico

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not James Talarico personally.

    Polymarket
    49.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $312K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    49.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +3.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    49.0% / 50.0%
    Volume
    3.4M contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in Texas?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

Governors

Important statewide races; they do not determine control of Congress.

  1. Georgia governorGeorgia's governor's office is openKeisha Lance BottomsRick JacksonParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Keisha Lance Bottoms ahead.Polymarket: Keisha Lance Bottoms 59.5%Rick Jackson 40.5%Kalshi: Keisha Lance Bottoms 56.5%Rick Jackson 43.5%

    Keisha Lance Bottoms

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Keisha Lance Bottoms personally.

    Polymarket
    59.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $29.0K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    56.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -2.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    56.0% / 57.0%
    Volume
    234K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Georgia
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Rick Jackson

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Rick Jackson personally.

    Polymarket
    40.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $31.7K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    43.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    43.0% / 44.0%
    Volume
    260K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Georgia
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  2. Nevada governorNevada's Republican governor is defending his jobAaron FordJoe LombardoParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Aaron Ford ahead.Polymarket: Aaron Ford 52.0%Joe Lombardo 48.0%Kalshi: Aaron Ford 55.5%Joe Lombardo 44.5%

    Aaron Ford

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Aaron Ford personally.

    Polymarket
    52.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -3.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $11.8K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    55.5%
    Recorded span
    6 samples / 5 intervals; -1.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    55.0% / 56.0%
    Volume
    108K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Nevada
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Joe Lombardo

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Joe Lombardo personally.

    Polymarket
    48.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +2.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $33.5K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    44.5%
    Recorded span
    7 samples / 6 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    44.0% / 45.0%
    Volume
    162K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Nevada
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  3. Ohio governorOhio is choosing a new governorVivek RamaswamyAmy ActonParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Vivek Ramaswamy ahead.Polymarket: Vivek Ramaswamy 52.5%Amy Acton 46.0%Kalshi: Vivek Ramaswamy 50.5%Amy Acton 49.5%

    Vivek Ramaswamy

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Vivek Ramaswamy personally.

    Polymarket
    52.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -3.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $57.5K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    50.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -2.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    50.0% / 51.0%
    Volume
    570K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Ohio
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Amy Acton

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Amy Acton personally.

    Polymarket
    46.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +2.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $59.9K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    49.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    49.0% / 50.0%
    Volume
    376K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Ohio
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  4. Wisconsin governorAn open governorshipTom TiffanyFrancesca HongParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.Both venues name Tom Tiffany ahead.Polymarket: Tom Tiffany 60.0%Francesca Hong 41.0%Kalshi: Tom Tiffany 61.5%Francesca Hong 37.5%

    Tom Tiffany

    Republican · Provisional nominee · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Tom Tiffany personally.

    The snapshot identifies Tom Tiffany as a primary leader, not a settled nominee.

    Polymarket
    60.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +7.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $76.5K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    61.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +8.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    61.0% / 62.0%
    Volume
    173K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Wisconsin
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
    Wisconsin Republican primary: 8 candidates, Kalshi only

    This nomination field sits beneath Tom Tiffany; it is not a second governor race.

    1. Tom Tiffany
      Kalshi
      99.4%
      Recorded span
      5 samples / 4 intervals; -0.3pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      99.4% / 99.5%
      Volume
      19.2K contracts
      Question
      Will Tom Tiffany be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    2. Andy Manske
      Kalshi
      0.5%
      Recorded span
      6 samples / 5 intervals; -1.5pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 1.0%
      Volume
      3.9K contracts
      Question
      Will Andy Manske be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    3. Bryan Steil
      Kalshi
      0.05%
      Recorded span
      2 samples / 1 intervals; -0.1pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 0.1%
      Volume
      1.5K contracts
      Question
      Will Bryan Steil be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    4. Eric Hovde
      Kalshi
      0.05%
      Recorded span
      2 samples / 1 intervals; -0.1pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 0.1%
      Volume
      1.4K contracts
      Question
      Will Eric Hovde be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    5. Josh Schoemann
      Kalshi
      0.05%
      Recorded span
      2 samples / 1 intervals; -0.1pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 0.1%
      Volume
      1.5K contracts
      Question
      Will Josh Schoemann be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    6. Patrick Testin
      Kalshi
      0.05%
      Recorded span
      2 samples / 1 intervals; -0.1pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 0.1%
      Volume
      1.1K contracts
      Question
      Will Patrick Testin be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    7. Rebecca Kleefisch
      Kalshi
      0.05%
      Recorded span
      2 samples / 1 intervals; -0.1pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 0.1%
      Volume
      1.8K contracts
      Question
      Will Rebecca Kleefisch be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    8. Tommy Thompson
      Kalshi
      0.05%
      Recorded span
      2 samples / 1 intervals; -0.1pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 0.1%
      Volume
      5.9K contracts
      Question
      Will Tommy Thompson be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source

    Francesca Hong

    Democratic · Provisional nominee · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Francesca Hong personally.

    The snapshot identifies Francesca Hong as a primary leader, not a settled nominee.

    Polymarket
    41.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -2.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $52.9K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    37.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -10pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    37.0% / 38.0%
    Volume
    211K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Wisconsin
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
    Wisconsin Democratic primary: 8 candidates, Kalshi only

    This nomination field sits beneath Francesca Hong; it is not a second governor race.

    1. Francesca Hong
      Kalshi
      95.5%
      Recorded span
      8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.4pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      95.5% / 95.6%
      Volume
      1.6M contracts
      Question
      Will Francesca Hong be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    2. David Crowley
      Kalshi
      4.3%
      Recorded span
      8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.2pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      4.2% / 4.3%
      Volume
      1.1M contracts
      Question
      Will David Crowley be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    3. Brett Hulsey
      Kalshi
      0.1%
      Recorded span
      7 samples / 6 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 0.2%
      Volume
      15.4K contracts
      Question
      Will Brett Hulsey be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    4. Kelda Roys
      Kalshi
      0.1%
      Recorded span
      8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.3pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 0.2%
      Volume
      273K contracts
      Question
      Will Kelda Roys be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    5. Joel Brennan
      Kalshi
      0.05%
      Recorded span
      7 samples / 6 intervals; -0.1pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 0.1%
      Volume
      128K contracts
      Question
      Will Joel Brennan be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    6. Josh Kaul
      Kalshi
      0.05%
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 0.1%
      Volume
      13.5K contracts
      Question
      Will Josh Kaul be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    7. Sara Rodriguez
      Kalshi
      0.05%
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 0.1%
      Volume
      371K contracts
      Question
      Will Sara Rodriguez be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
    8. Tony Evers
      Kalshi
      0.05%
      Recorded span
      3 samples / 2 intervals; -0.1pp across that span
      Bid / ask
      0.0% / 0.1%
      Volume
      16.8K contracts
      Question
      Will Tony Evers be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Wisconsin?
      Observed
      Open Kalshi source
How this desk reads the two booksThe comparison basis, and today's four irreducible facts

Since the previous edition

This edition predates stable race identifiers, so it cannot be compared with another edition. Contest names drift between editions, and joining on them would report moves that never happened.

Today's four irreducible facts

Each claim keeps the two venues separate.

  1. House control

    Democratic-control contracts:

    Polymarket 88.5%Kalshi 84.5%

  2. Senate control

    Democratic-control contracts:

    Polymarket 45.5%Kalshi 45.5%

    Recorded-span changes: Polymarket +1.0pp; Kalshi -0.5pp. No clear move.

  3. Ohio Senate

    The books name different leaders.

    Polymarket Sherrod Brown leadsKalshi Jon Husted leadsPolymarket: Sherrod Brown 51.5%Jon Husted 49.5%Kalshi: Sherrod Brown 48.5%Jon Husted 51.5%

  4. Michigan Senate

    Abdul El-Sayed has the widest current candidate-side venue gap, 5.0pp.

    Polymarket 59.5%Kalshi 54.5%

Iowa Senate

Kalshi only; no cross-venue comparison.

Polymarket: Not pricedKalshi: Ashley Hinson 64.5%Josh Turek 35.0%

Method and scope

  • These are trader-implied market prices, not polls and not POLI forecasts.
  • Polymarket volume is USD notional; Kalshi volume is contracts. They are not comparable, so this page does not combine or weight them.
  • Separately traded candidate contracts are independent and do not have to sum to 100%.
  • This is a dated snapshot observed Aug 9, 8:29 PM CT, not a live feed.
  • This edition contains 10 races from its published snapshots: no polls, no vote counts, and no inferred contests.
  • Edition changes publish only when stable race identity, contest kind, market scope, and venue identity make subtraction safe.

Election archive

  1. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  2. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  3. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  4. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  5. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  6. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  7. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  8. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  9. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  10. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  11. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  12. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  13. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  14. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.