Political Guyentist

Archive edition

Markets, not pollsPolymarketKalshi

Elections

Snapshot

The Senate books are 1.0pp apart. The books do not name different leaders in any statewide race.

Return to the latest elections edition

Control of Congress

Current contract prices, stated book by book.

House

Democratic control of the House

Polymarket87.5%heavily favoured
Kalshi84.5%clearly ahead

No clear movePolymarket +2.0pp; Kalshi +0.5pp across each venue's recorded span.

No House district markets in this data.

Senate

Democrats take the Senate

Polymarket45.5%a coin flip
Kalshi46.5%a coin flip

No clear movePolymarket +1.0pp; Kalshi +0.5pp across each venue's recorded span.

Senate seat arithmetic

Republicans hold 53 of 100; 51 is a majority. The other 47 need a net 4.

The aggregate control contract does not identify which individual seats would supply that net gain.

The current race ledger

6 Senate races, then 4 governors, each group by state, A to Z.

10 races have snapshot data but no desk note yet. They still appear in full: Ohio governor general, Maine Senate general, Texas Senate general, Alaska Senate general, Iowa Senate general, Michigan Senate general, Ohio Senate general, Wisconsin governor Democratic primary, Georgia governor general, Nevada governor general.

Senate

  1. Alaska Senate generalMary PeltolaDan SullivanCandidate contracts price the named people.One venue only; no cross-venue comparison.Polymarket: Mary Peltola 52.5%Dan Sullivan 48.5%Kalshi: Not priced

    Mary Peltola

    Democratic · Provisional nominee · Candidate contract

    The snapshot identifies Mary Peltola as a primary leader, not a settled nominee.

    Polymarket
    52.5%
    Volume
    $187K
    Question
    Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Dan Sullivan

    Republican · Provisional nominee · Candidate contract

    The snapshot identifies Dan Sullivan as a primary leader, not a settled nominee.

    Polymarket
    48.5%
    Volume
    $113K
    Question
    Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

  2. Iowa Senate generalAshley HinsonJosh TurekCandidate contracts price the named people.Both venues name Ashley Hinson ahead.Polymarket: Ashley Hinson 56.5%Josh Turek 44.5%Kalshi: Ashley Hinson 59.5%Josh Turek 41.5%

    Ashley Hinson

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    56.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $83.4K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    59.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    59.0% / 60.0%
    Volume
    553K contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Iowa?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Josh Turek

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    44.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $87.8K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    41.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    41.0% / 42.0%
    Volume
    460K contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in Iowa?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  3. Maine Senate generalTroy JacksonSusan CollinsParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.One venue only; no cross-venue comparison.Polymarket: Troy Jackson 68.5%Susan Collins 32.5%Kalshi: Not priced

    Troy Jackson

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Troy Jackson personally.

    Polymarket
    68.5%
    Volume
    $708K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Susan Collins

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Susan Collins personally.

    Polymarket
    32.5%
    Volume
    $419K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

  4. Michigan Senate generalAbdul El-SayedMike RogersParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.One venue only; no cross-venue comparison.Polymarket: Abdul El-Sayed 60.5%Mike Rogers 40.5%Kalshi: Not priced

    Abdul El-Sayed

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Abdul El-Sayed personally.

    Polymarket
    60.5%
    Volume
    $145K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Mike Rogers

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Mike Rogers personally.

    Polymarket
    40.5%
    Volume
    $126K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

  5. Ohio Senate generalSherrod BrownJon HustedCandidate contracts price the named people.Both venues name Sherrod Brown ahead.Polymarket: Sherrod Brown 51.5%Jon Husted 49.5%Kalshi: Sherrod Brown 50.5%Jon Husted 49.5%

    Sherrod Brown

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    51.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; 0.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $70.7K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    50.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -3.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    50.0% / 51.0%
    Volume
    279K contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in Ohio?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Jon Husted

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    49.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -1.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $57.9K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    49.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    49.0% / 50.0%
    Volume
    422K contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Ohio?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  6. Texas Senate generalKen PaxtonJames TalaricoCandidate contracts price the named people.Both venues name Ken Paxton ahead.Polymarket: Ken Paxton 51.0%James Talarico 49.5%Kalshi: Ken Paxton 50.5%James Talarico 48.5%

    Ken Paxton

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    51.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $370K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    50.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -3.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    50.0% / 51.0%
    Volume
    4.2M contracts
    Question
    Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    James Talarico

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    49.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +2.0pp across that span
    Volume
    $308K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    48.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    48.0% / 49.0%
    Volume
    3.3M contracts
    Question
    Will Democratics win the Senate race in Texas?
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

Governors

Important statewide races; they do not determine control of Congress.

  1. Georgia governor generalKeisha Lance BottomsRick JacksonParty contracts price the parties, not the named people.One venue only; no cross-venue comparison.Polymarket: Keisha Lance Bottoms 59.5%Rick Jackson 40.5%Kalshi: Not priced

    Keisha Lance Bottoms

    Democratic · Party contract

    This contract prices the Democratic party, not Keisha Lance Bottoms personally.

    Polymarket
    59.5%
    Volume
    $29.0K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    Rick Jackson

    Republican · Party contract

    This contract prices the Republican party, not Rick Jackson personally.

    Polymarket
    40.5%
    Volume
    $31.7K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

  2. Nevada governor generalAaron FordJoe LombardoCandidate contracts price the named people.Both venues name Aaron Ford ahead.Polymarket: Aaron Ford 52.0%Joe Lombardo 48.0%Kalshi: Aaron Ford 54.0%Joe Lombardo 44.5%

    Aaron Ford

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    52.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -4.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $11.7K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    54.0%
    Recorded span
    5 samples / 4 intervals; -3.0pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    53.0% / 55.0%
    Volume
    98.5K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Nevada
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Joe Lombardo

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    48.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +3.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $33.5K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    44.5%
    Recorded span
    7 samples / 6 intervals; +0.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    44.0% / 45.0%
    Volume
    158K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Nevada
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  3. Ohio governor generalVivek RamaswamyAmy ActonCandidate contracts price the named people.Both venues name Vivek Ramaswamy ahead.Polymarket: Vivek Ramaswamy 55.5%Amy Acton 45.0%Kalshi: Vivek Ramaswamy 50.5%Amy Acton 49.5%

    Vivek Ramaswamy

    Republican · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    55.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $57.3K
    Question
    Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    50.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -2.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    50.0% / 51.0%
    Volume
    567K contracts
    Question
    Will the Republican party win the governorship in Ohio
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source

    Amy Acton

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    45.0%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.5pp across that span
    Volume
    $59.4K
    Question
    Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    49.5%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +2.5pp across that span
    Bid / ask
    49.0% / 50.0%
    Volume
    376K contracts
    Question
    Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Ohio
    Observed
    Open Kalshi source
  4. Wisconsin governor Democratic primaryFrancesca HongDavid CrowleyCandidate contracts price the named people.One venue only; no cross-venue comparison.Polymarket: Francesca Hong 95.3%David Crowley 4.9%Kalshi: Not priced

    Francesca Hong

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    95.3%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; -0.8pp across that span
    Volume
    $186K
    Question
    Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

    David Crowley

    Democratic · Candidate contract

    Polymarket
    4.9%
    Recorded span
    8 samples / 7 intervals; +1.4pp across that span
    Volume
    $74.8K
    Question
    Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
    Observed
    Open Polymarket source
    Kalshi
    Not priced

    This venue does not price this candidate in the edition snapshot.

How this desk reads the two booksThe comparison basis, and today's four irreducible facts

Since the previous edition

This edition predates stable race identifiers, so it cannot be compared with another edition. Contest names drift between editions, and joining on them would report moves that never happened.

Today's four irreducible facts

Each claim keeps the two venues separate.

  1. House control

    Democratic-control contracts:

    Polymarket 87.5%Kalshi 84.5%

  2. Senate control

    Democratic-control contracts:

    Polymarket 45.5%Kalshi 46.5%

    Recorded-span changes: Polymarket +1.0pp; Kalshi +0.5pp. No clear move.

  3. Disputed leaders

    The two books name the same leader in every race on this board.

  4. Ohio governor general

    Vivek Ramaswamy has the widest current candidate-side venue gap, 5.0pp.

    Polymarket 55.5%Kalshi 50.5%

Alaska Senate general — and 4 more

Polymarket only; no cross-venue comparison.

Polymarket: Mary Peltola 52.5%Dan Sullivan 48.5%Kalshi: Not priced

Method and scope

  • These are trader-implied market prices, not polls and not POLI forecasts.
  • Polymarket volume is USD notional; Kalshi volume is contracts. They are not comparable, so this page does not combine or weight them.
  • Separately traded candidate contracts are independent and do not have to sum to 100%.
  • This is a dated snapshot observed Aug 8, 8:35 AM CT, not a live feed.
  • This edition contains 10 races from its published snapshots: no polls, no vote counts, and no inferred contests.
  • Edition changes publish only when stable race identity, contest kind, market scope, and venue identity make subtraction safe.

Election archive

  1. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  2. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  3. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  4. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  5. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  6. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  7. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  8. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  9. Stable race identifiers; eligible comparison baseline.
  10. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  11. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  12. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  13. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.
  14. Predates stable race identifiers; not comparable.