Political Guyentist
Political Guyentist

Monday

1usUpdateIran war

Saudi Arabia shuts Hormuz-bypass pipeline, oil rises more than $3 with 4% of supply at risk

Developing Asian nations face an added $7 billion in gas costs after the U.S.-Iran war took a fifth of global LNG supply offline, Bloomberg reported.

- Sept. 3 — U.S. drones hit two Iranian tankers under a "tanker for tanker" policy while the Navy escorted a 40-ship convoy through Hormuz, after two Filipino sailors were killed on the Saudi tanker Sidr. - Sept. 13 — Drones launched from Iraq hit the Saudi East-West line, forcing its closure.

ContextThe last full Saudi export shutdown — the Sept. 14, 2019 attack on the Abqaiq processing plant — was half-restored in three days, and higher oil costs usually reach U.S. pumps within about two weeks (AP).

REUTERS10 sources

2usUpdateIran war

Unidentified projectile hits Iranian container ship off Hengam Island, killing 1 and wounding 4

Trump said 'I don't want to say' and smirked when asked if the U.S. did it; the Qeshm governor blamed a 'terrorist enemy' without naming the U.S.

- Feb. 28 — U.S. and Israel began striking Iran; the war spread to Gulf states and shut Hormuz to normal traffic. - Aug. 18–20 — As a 60-day talks window expired, Trump threatened Oman and sanctions on Iran's helpers; only 10 to 12 ships a day crossed. - Aug. 29 — U.S. had launched no large strike in nearly a month; 18 Americans were dead and 750-plus wounded. - Aug. 31–Sept. 1 — U.S. destroyed two mine-laying launchers on Larak, killing two; Iran fired eight missiles at Jordan, all intercepted; Brent passed $90. - Sept. 1–3 — U.S. hit about 100 coastal targets; Iran struck U.S. bases in four countries and counted 18 dead including five at a wedding. - Sept. 5–6 — After Iran fired at two warships hurting no one, U.S. destroyed three tankers under a three-for-two rule. - Sept. 7 — Iran claimed it hit an unmanned U.S. vessel; CENTCOM called it a lie and said its tanker strikes killed no one. - Sept. 8 — Iran said it would declare a restricted zone near Hormuz and doubled gasoline prices for its heaviest 15%. - Sept. 9 — Iran said it seized a U.S. sea drone in Hormuz; CENTCOM said the drone malfunctioned a day earlier.

ContextThe U.S.-Iran war was in its seventh month on Sept. 13. The Hill reported that U.S. Central Command said it had destroyed five Iranian oil tankers linked to Iran's Revolutionary Guard earlier that week. Trump did not confirm U.S. responsibility for the Sept. 13 container-ship strike, answering, "I don't want to say," according to the [Washington Examiner](https://washingtonexaminer.com/news/world/4725254/one-dead-iran-cargo-ship-attack-strait-of-hormuz).

WASHINGTON EXAMINER7 sources

3usUpdateIran war

Houthis claim new missile and drone strikes on Saudi Arabia after taking Perim Island in offensive that killed more than 1,500 soldiers

Saudi civil defense says a projectile wounded two in al-Tawwal; Perim fell Friday, Sept. 11

Iran-backed Houthi fighters claimed new missile and drone strikes on Saudi Arabia on Sunday, Sept. 13. Saudi civil defense said a projectile fell in al-Tawwal governorate near the Yemen border, wounding two people and damaging a mosque and other buildings. Sultan al-Arada of Yemen's ruling presidential council called the collapse at Mokha "painful and regrettable" and said forces are regrouping; the UN warns of renewed catastrophe.

8 sources

4not newslongform

Kennedy Center warns of 'certain financial collapse' within weeks and closure as soon as Tuesday, Sept. 15

Internal papers say adding Donald Trump's name to the building may be the only way to avoid bankruptcy.

How ticket and donor demand fell after the takeover: Subscription sales for fall 2025 were down about $1.6 million, roughly 36 percent, against the prior year. Ticket buyers were down about 70 percent against the same period in each of the prior three years; 43 percent of seats sat unsold Sept. 3-Oct. 19 against 7 percent in 2024 — both figures from the trustees' packet reported by the Post. Washington National Opera — resident since 1971 — left in January 2026, saying the Center's new requirement that productions be fully funded in advance does not fit its finances (NPR); it now sues over $17 million in withheld donations.

ContextThe $37.2 million operations line was cut 17.2 percent ($7.7 million) from fiscal 2025, while $257 million is restricted capital. A March 16, 2026 board vote ordered a two-year shutdown, with the National Symphony scattering 60 dates to six venues. Philadelphia's orchestra filed for bankruptcy in 2011 and survived; a federal memorial faces an eligibility bar private groups did not. The rename pitch is leverage: only Congress can rename the building, and Congress holds its maintenance appropriation — the officials' bet is that Trump's name on the wall unlocks federal rescue money.

WASHINGTON POST1 source

Monday · The daily brief

Sep 142026

4 leads37 briefs18 min

BoardScroll

Executive summary4 stories

News news3

  1. Saudi Arabia shuts Hormuz-bypass pipeline, oil rises more than $3 with 4% of supply at riskDeveloping Asian nations face an added $7 billion in gas costs after the U.S.-Iran war took a fifth of global LNG supply offline, Bloomberg reported.
  2. Unidentified projectile hits Iranian container ship off Hengam Island, killing 1 and wounding 4Trump said 'I don't want to say' and smirked when asked if the U.S. did it; the Qeshm governor blamed a 'terrorist enemy' without naming the U.S.
  3. Houthis claim new missile and drone strikes on Saudi Arabia after taking Perim Island in offensive that killed more than 1,500 soldiersSaudi civil defense says a projectile wounded two in al-Tawwal; Perim fell Friday, Sept. 11

Not news news1

  1. Kennedy Center warns of 'certain financial collapse' within weeks and closure as soon as Tuesday, Sept. 15Internal papers say adding Donald Trump's name to the building may be the only way to avoid bankruptcy.

News news3 stories

REUTERSUpdateIran war

Saudi Arabia shuts Hormuz-bypass pipeline, oil rises more than $3 with 4% of supply at risk

Developing Asian nations face a $7 billion gas bill as the U.S.-Iran war takes a fifth of global LNG (liquefied natural gas) supply offline.

Saudi Arabia shut its East-West pipeline on Sunday, Sept. 13 after drone hits, closing the bypass route that moved Saudi oil to the Red Sea around the Strait of Hormuz during the U.S.-Iran war. Oil rose more than $3 a barrel after the shutdown and fresh strikes near Hormuz, Reuters reported.

The outage puts roughly 4% of world oil supply at risk. Diesel hit a record as refiners run near their limits; Bloomberg put the LNG lost to the war at a fifth of world supply.

How we got herethe story so far
  • Sept. 3 — U.S. drones hit two Iranian tankers under a "tanker for tanker" policy while the Navy escorted a 40-ship convoy through Hormuz, after two Filipino sailors were killed on the Saudi tanker Sidr.
  • Sept. 13 — Drones launched from Iraq hit the Saudi East-West line, forcing its closure.
BackgroundWhat the East-West shutdown takes offline3 facts
  • East-West line normally moves 5 million barrels a day and can surge to 7 million; oil through Hormuz ran 21 million barrels a day in early 2026 (Kpler).
  • U.S. distillate (diesel-type fuel) stocks are forecast below 100 million barrels and below the 2021-2025 five-year range through 2026 and most of 2027 (EIA); the week ending Sept. 4 held 28.6 days of supply.
  • U.S. diesel refining margin (the gap between oil cost and diesel price) hit a record $108.02 a barrel intraday, about $2.57 a gallon; EIA expects it above $2 a gallon from August through November.
Currently showing U.S. average retail diesel price
U.S. average retail diesel price
U.S. average retail diesel price Monthly last weekly observation through Sept. 7; Sept. 13 point as reported by Time Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EMD_EPD2D_PTE_NUS_DPG), dollars per gallon $3.00 $4.00 $5.00 $6.00 $7.00 $3.71 $6.00 June 2022 record $5.81 2022-06-27: June 2022 record $5.81 2021-10-25 2023-01-30 2024-04-29 2025-07-28 2026-09-13
U.S. average retail diesel price

Related reading

RELATEDTrump tells Zelenskyy to stop hitting Russian diesel refineries as U.S. diesel hits $6

At Doonbeg on Sunday, Sept. 13, Donald Trump said Volodymyr Zelenskyy (President, Ukraine) "has to stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia" — "that's hurting the world," not the Middle East. Overnight into Sunday, Ukraine hit two Russian refineries including the Slavyansk plant; a drone strike on Nizhnekamsk, Tatarstan killed two and injured 14. More than two-thirds of Russia's 34 major refineries have been hit since early April, per Le Monde's Aug. 11 count.

Russia banned diesel exports in July after rationing. U.S. diesel averaged a record above $6 a gallon on Friday, Sept. 11 (PBS NewsHour); the EIA retail series, which lags by days, had $5.97 on Sept. 7. CNBC puts the Hormuz outage at 1.2 million barrels a day and Russia's at 800,000.

Ongoing20 earlier updates53 days

This story has run 21 times over 53 days, starting Jul 23.

  1. Trump Threatens to Bomb Iranian Bridges and Power Plants for Every Ship Hit in Strait of Hormuz
  2. Iran fires multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. base in Jordan; all are intercepted
  3. Iran denies Trump’s claim that new U.S. talks would start Monday
  4. Cargo ship is struck in the Strait of Hormuz
  5. Vance says the Iran talks are moving, then calls the war only half over
  6. Iran won't reopen Hormuz until the US unfreezes its assets and lifts the blockade
  7. Trump threatens to bomb Oman, the U.S. ally brokering the deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
  8. Trump declares an "economic D-Day" on Iran as Hormuz traffic runs 85% below normal
  9. UpdateU.S. goes nearly a month without large Iran strikes as Trump shifts back to sanctions; Hormuz remains closed
  10. U.S. destroys two Iranian rocket launchers loaded to mine the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at bases in Jordan, all intercepted
  11. UpdateU.S. bombs two Iranian rocket sites near the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at Jordan
  12. UpdateU.S. forces struck IRGC air-defense, radar, maritime and mine-laying sites on Iran's southern coast starting at noon on Sept. 1
  13. UpdateU.S. hits about 100 Iranian targets; Iran fires back at American bases in four countries, and a cruise missile kills 4 at a wedding
  14. Reuters weapons experts say a US munition made a direct hit on the Iranian wedding house that killed 5
  15. US destroys or disables 3 Iranian oil tankers after Iran fired ballistic missiles at a US carrier and destroyer
  16. UpdateIran says it hit an unmanned US vessel a day after the tanker strikes; Central Command calls the claim "a total lie"
  17. UpdateIran says it will declare a restricted zone near the Strait of Hormuz and will strike threats "even before" they are carried out
  18. Iran says it seized a US sea drone in Hormuz; CENTCOM says it malfunctioned a day earlier
  19. UpdateIran fires 20 missiles at a US base in Jordan; Jordan says it intercepted 18
  20. UpdateNavy plans to keep 2 carrier groups near Iran at least through 2026
  21. UpdateUnidentified projectile hits Iranian container ship off Hengam Island, killing 1 and wounding 4 — this issue
WASHINGTON EXAMINERUpdateIran war

Unidentified projectile hits Iranian container ship off Hengam Island, killing 1 and wounding 4

Trump said 'I don't want to say' and smirked when asked if the U.S. did it; the Qeshm governor blamed a 'terrorist enemy' without naming the U.S.

An unidentified projectile hit an Iranian container ship near Hengam Island in the Strait of Hormuz early Sunday, Sept. 13, killing one crew member and wounding four, Iranian state media reported. UK Maritime Trade Operations confirmed that a projectile hit a vessel, causing a severe fire, and that local authorities evacuated those aboard, according to the Washington Examiner. Hengam lies 1.2 miles south of Qeshm Island, The Hill reported; Qeshm is 14 miles from the port city of Bandar Abbas, according to PBS NewsHour.

Catch upwhat happened before · 20 earlier issues
  • Feb. 28 — U.S. and Israel began striking Iran; the war spread to Gulf states and shut Hormuz to normal traffic.
  • Aug. 18–20 — As a 60-day talks window expired, Trump threatened Oman and sanctions on Iran's helpers; only 10 to 12 ships a day crossed.
  • Aug. 29 — U.S. had launched no large strike in nearly a month; 18 Americans were dead and 750-plus wounded.
  • Aug. 31–Sept. 1 — U.S. destroyed two mine-laying launchers on Larak, killing two; Iran fired eight missiles at Jordan, all intercepted; Brent passed $90.
  • Sept. 1–3 — U.S. hit about 100 coastal targets; Iran struck U.S. bases in four countries and counted 18 dead including five at a wedding.
  • Sept. 5–6 — After Iran fired at two warships hurting no one, U.S. destroyed three tankers under a three-for-two rule.
  • Sept. 7 — Iran claimed it hit an unmanned U.S. vessel; CENTCOM called it a lie and said its tanker strikes killed no one.
  • Sept. 8 — Iran said it would declare a restricted zone near Hormuz and doubled gasoline prices for its heaviest 15%.
  • Sept. 9 — Iran said it seized a U.S. sea drone in Hormuz; CENTCOM said the drone malfunctioned a day earlier.
19 earlier issues
Why no claim of responsibility stands outU.S. Central Command named hulls within a day for its Sept. 5 strikes on Downy, Stark 1 and Kylo; it has issued no release for…2 details
  • U.S. Central Command named hulls within a day for its Sept. 5 strikes on Downy, Stark 1 and Kylo; it has issued no release for this strike.
  • UKMTO's 'unknown projectile' wording is standard formula — it used near-identical language for an Aug. 18 incident — and Sunday's alert assigned no responsibility.
Ongoing1 earlier update3 days

This story has run 2 times over 3 days, starting Sep 11.

  1. CNN: More than 100 US advisers support Saudi campaign against Houthis
  2. UpdateHouthis claim new missile and drone strikes on Saudi Arabia after taking Perim Island in offensive that killed more than 1,500 soldiers — this issue
UpdateIran war

Houthis claim new missile and drone strikes on Saudi Arabia after taking Perim Island in offensive that killed more than 1,500 soldiers

Iran-backed Houthi fighters claimed new missile and drone strikes on Saudi Arabia on Sunday, Sept. 13. Saudi civil defense said a projectile fell in al-Tawwal governorate near the Yemen border, wounding two people and damaging a mosque and other buildings. Sultan al-Arada of Yemen's ruling presidential council called the collapse at Mokha "painful and regrettable" and said forces are regrouping; the UN warns of renewed catastrophe.

Catch upwhat happened before · 1 earlier issue
  • Sept. 11 — Houthi forces captured Mokha, 46 miles from the Bab el-Mandeb strait.
  • Sept. 12 — The Houthis said they took Perim Island, completing a month-long offensive along Yemen's west coast that killed more than 1,500 soldiers, Fox News reported.
  • Sept. 13 — Monitors recorded no new shipping halts; retreating forces abandoned U.S.-made armored vehicles and artillery along the coast.

Perim sits in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the waterway between Yemen and Djibouti — 18 miles wide there, the island under 2 miles off Yemen, splitting traffic into two lanes (TWZ, Fox News).

The island holds a 1.85 km runway and three hangars built in February–May 2021 in UAE-linked construction (TWZ, Fox News). The runway's condition is unknown, and the Houthis have no manned aircraft to use it (TWZ, Fox News).

Yemen's earlier civil war killed 150,000 people before the 2022 ceasefire (NBC News) — the scale officials fear resuming.

Oil through the strait fell to 4.1 million barrels a day in 2024 from 9.3 million in 2023 (EIA); through Hormuz it ran 21 million a day in early 2026 (Kpler). EIA's tables put LNG through the strait at zero for 2024, down from 4.2 billion cubic feet a day in 2023.

The chokepointMap

A month-long offensive reached the strait

Houthi forces took Mokha on Sept. 11 and said they took Perim Island the next day, completing a coastal offensive that killed more than 1,500 soldiers. Perim sits inside the Bab el-Mandeb — the 18-mile waterway between Yemen and Djibouti that every Suez-bound ship has to pass.

A globe centred on the Bab el-Mandeb strait between Yemen and the Horn of Africa, marking Mokha and Perim Island — reported captured by Houthi forces — beside the shipping lane through the strait. Places marked: Bab el-Mandeb; Perim Island; Mokha; Djibouti. Drawn across the map: Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb — standing feature of the geography. Figures: oil through the strait in 2024 — down from 9.3 million in 2023, 4.1m barrels a day; wide between Yemen and Djibouti; Perim sits under 2 miles off Yemen, 18 miles; runway on Perim, built in 2021; the Houthis have no manned aircraft to use it, 1.85 km; soldiers killed in the month-long coastal offensive, 1,500+.

4.1m barrels a dayoil through the strait in 2024 — down from 9.3 million in 2023
18 mileswide between Yemen and Djibouti; Perim sits under 2 miles off Yemen
1.85 kmrunway on Perim, built in 2021; the Houthis have no manned aircraft to use it
1,500+soldiers killed in the month-long coastal offensive

Route through the geography

Coastlines: Natural Earth 1:110m globe, 1:10m inset. Pins mark reported places, not strike trajectories; Perim's runway condition is unverified.
What this map shows, as data
Places marked on the map
PlaceRolePositionWhat the reporting saysSource
Bab el-MandebChokepoint12.58°N, 43.33°E18 miles wide between Yemen and Djibouti, with Perim splitting traffic into two lanes. Everything sailing between the Suez Canal and the Indian Ocean passes it.Wikidata Q83318, Bab-el-Mandeb
Perim IslandReported struck12.66°N, 43.42°EThe Houthis said they took the island on Sept. 12. It holds a 1.85 km runway and three hangars built in 2021 in UAE-linked construction; the runway's condition is unknown and the Houthis have no manned aircraft.Wikidata Q1160017, Perim
MokhaReported struck13.32°N, 43.25°EHouthi forces captured the port on Sept. 11, 46 miles from the strait. Yemen's presidential council called the collapse 'painful and regrettable.'Wikidata Q339258, Mokha
DjiboutiPlace11.60°N, 43.15°EThe African shore of the chokepoint.Wikidata Q3604, Djibouti
Routes and movements drawn on the map
DrawnKindStatusWhat the reporting saysSource
Traffic through the Bab el-MandebRouteStanding feature of the geographyShips between the Suez Canal and the Indian Ocean pass the strait; there is no other sea route.U.S. Energy Information Administration — World Oil Transit Chokepoints
Figures shown beside the map
FigureValueDetailSource
oil through the strait in 2024 — down from 9.3 million in 20234.1m barrels a day—U.S. Energy Information Administration — World Oil Transit Chokepoints
wide between Yemen and Djibouti; Perim sits under 2 miles off Yemen18 miles—Fox News: Houthis enter U.S. 'kill box' after seizing Red Sea cork
runway on Perim, built in 2021; the Houthis have no manned aircraft to use it1.85 km—Fox News: Houthis enter U.S. 'kill box' after seizing Red Sea cork
soldiers killed in the month-long coastal offensive1,500+—Fox News: Houthis enter U.S. 'kill box' after seizing Red Sea cork

Where every coordinate came from

  • Coordinates: Wikidata Q83318 (Bab-el-Mandeb), 12.58°N 43.33°E.
  • Coordinates: Wikidata Q1160017 (Perim), 12.66°N 43.42°E.
  • Coordinates: Wikidata Q339258 (Mokha), 13.32°N 43.25°E.
  • Coordinates: Wikidata Q3604 (Djibouti), 11.60°N 43.15°E.
  • Drawn between open water in the Gulf of Aden and the southern Red Sea through the strait's published centre.

Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration — World Oil Transit Chokepoints · Fox News: Houthis enter U.S. 'kill box' after seizing Red Sea cork · Wikidata Q83318, Bab-el-Mandeb · Wikidata Q1160017, Perim · Wikidata Q339258, Mokha · Wikidata Q3604, Djibouti · Natural Earth (public domain)

Quick bites14

The fight over AI2 bites

  1. Trump rejects AI slowdown, says US must not cede AI lead to China

    PBS NEWSHOURUpdate

    Speaking in Ireland a day after the heads of Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI and Google DeepMind backed a slowdown, Trump blamed "negative forces" for the warnings and named no guardrails he would support.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 5 earlier issues

    On Sept. 12, three House Democrats urged Speaker Mike Johnson (Rep-R Louisiana) to keep the House in session until it passed AI safeguards; Johnson declined to schedule votes, citing industry talks planned for early winter.

    4 earlier issues
    The rest of the AI fight on the Sunday showsJohnson rejected an emergency AI moratorium, citing China: "We cannot put a moratorium on this because China will overlap us."…6 details
    • Johnson rejected an emergency AI moratorium, citing China: "We cannot put a moratorium on this because China will overlap us." (Fox News)
    • He proposed a meeting with Trump, lawmakers and AI leaders, and said he would recall the House for a vote only "if we had a solution."
    • Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries (Rep-D New York) made AI the high priority for the caucus meeting Tuesday, Sept. 15: "We should take decisive action now." (ABC News)
    • Spencer Cox (Gov-R Utah) broke with Johnson, saying the federal government should play "a much bigger role" and calling Congress's response embarrassing. (CBS News)
    • 70% of registered voters oppose AI data centers in their communities, per a July Fox News poll.
    • Xi Jinping (President, China) is due at the White House later in September; PBS NewsHour reports AI is likely on the agenda.
    Ongoing5

    This story has run 6 times over 20 days, starting Aug 25.

    1. U.S. sanctions nearly 60 Iranian targets and threatens countries that keep trading with Tehran
    2. China rejects Trump’s threat to sanction Iran’s trading partners
    3. Bessent says new Iran sanctions will land every week, with another bank next
    4. Sanctioned Russian finance minister attended a US-hosted G20 and met Bessent, then was left out of the group photo
    5. Energy Secretary Wright says an Iran nuclear deal may wait for a 'next administration' in Tehran
    6. UpdateTrump rejects AI slowdown, says US must not cede AI lead to China — this issue

  2. Obama told Democrats to center their agenda on AI

    NBC NEWS

    At a closed-door DCCC fundraiser at the New-York Historical Society on Thursday, Sept. 10, he pressed Hakeem Jeffries (Rep-D New York) for a public framework on safety, kids and job loss once Democrats hold the House.

    • Obama called himself neither an "accelerationist" nor a "doomer" at the Sept. 10 fundraiser.
    • He pressed Democrats on job displacement: "Where is that going to hit? How are we going to respond? What is that going to mean for our social safety net?" (Politico)
The Iran war2 bites

  1. Two US airmen downed by Iranian missile on April 2 were rescued, one after two days

    CBS NEWSIran war

    60 Minutes aired newly declassified footage and the first interview with one of the officers on Sunday, Sept. 13. Their $30 million F-15E was downed by a roughly $100,000 shoulder-fired missile during a strike on drone and missile plants south of Isfahan.

    • Alpha was recovered 8 hours after ejecting by a 21-aircraft daylight mission.
    • Bravo hit the ground 5 miles away at 70-100 mph with a damaged parachute, broke his back, arm and shoulder, then climbed a 7,000-foot ridge and evaded capture for 2 days.
    • The US had flown about 13,000 missions to that point, with 18 service members killed five weeks into the war.

  2. Pentagon orders defense industry to wartime footing after US fired thousands of missiles in Iran war

    THE HILLIran war

    The Pentagon has ordered the defense industry onto a "wartime footing" to rebuild stockpiles after the U.S. fired thousands of long-range precision-guided missiles in the war's early days, CBS News reported — an effort it reports will cost billions of dollars and take years of manufacturing. The Iran war is in its seventh month.

    Centcom commander Adm. Brad Cooper, the officer running the Iran war, told 60 Minutes he is "not concerned at all" about U.S. munitions inventories.

    • The drawdown raises the prospect of too few high-tech weapons to sustain a war against a peer military such as China, per CBS News.
Canada and the trade rupture2 bites

  1. US bans Canadian alcohol, dairy and vehicle imports after 50% tariffs

    THE NEW YORK TIMESTariffs and trade

    The U.S. has banned imports of Canadian alcoholic beverages, dairy and motor-vehicle products outright — what economist Justin Wolfers calls the economic equivalent of an infinite tariff — through five presidential proclamations with no congressional vote. The bans stack on the 50% tariffs already on hundreds of Canadian goods.

    Canada matched dollar-for-dollar with tariffs on $20 billion in U.S. imports, a fraction of the $762.10 billion in total 2024 trade, per Census Bureau data.

    • Wolfers argues Canada's consumer boycott may already be costing the U.S. more than the tariffs themselves.
    • Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed puts the trade war's cost to the average Michigan family at $5,600 a year. (CBS News)
    Ongoing10

    This story has run 11 times over 25 days, starting Aug 20.

    1. Trump pauses 50% Canada tariff two hours before it hits, buying three days
    2. Trump imposed 50% tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian goods and threatened the same rate on autos and steel
    3. Canada tariffs nearly $20 billion in U.S. goods to match Trump’s 50% levies
    4. Trump calls it a rejection of all Canadian imports; the enacted 50% tariffs cover about 5%
    5. Trade talks with Canada collapse, leaving 50% U.S. tariffs on $27.6 billion of Canadian goods
    6. UpdateCanada tariffs $20B of U.S. goods Sept. 8; U.S. trade rep says no talks underway
    7. UpdateCanada's 50% tariffs on $27.6B of U.S. goods start Tuesday, Sept. 8
    8. UpdateCanada's 15%-50% tariffs on $20 billion of U.S. goods took effect just after midnight Tuesday, Sept. 8
    9. Trump orders Canadian goods stripped from $50 billion in federal contract schedules
    10. UpdateTrump bans select Canadian dairy, alcohol and motorcycle imports starting Sept. 29.
    11. US bans Canadian alcohol, dairy and vehicle imports after 50% tariffs — this issue

  2. Carney seeks EU associate-member status for Canada after US trade talks collapse

    REUTERS

    Mark Carney (Prime Minister, Canada) is pushing the idea after U.S.-Canada trade talks collapsed, the Wall Street Journal reported. The status has no defined form. He meets European leaders this week and wants a Canadian role in the EU's Ukraine loan effort — part of a push to cut dependence on the U.S.

Also tonight6 bites

  1. Unvaccinated 40-year-old Pennsylvania woman dies of measles complications, third death tied to outbreak

    THE GUARDIAN

    An unvaccinated 40-year-old woman died of measles complications in Pennsylvania on Saturday, Sept. 12, Jefferson County Coroner Greg Furlong said — the state's third measles death this year and its first adult, after two infant deaths. Pennsylvania has confirmed 676 cases across 37 counties with 124 hospitalized; the national count passed 3,000, the most since 1991.

    • Lancaster County, an outbreak center, has 87.6% two-dose kindergarten MMR coverage, against the roughly 95% herd-immunity threshold; Pennsylvania overall sits at 92.7%.
    • Pennsylvania has not requested a CDC Epi-Aid outbreak team despite repeated offers, CDC Director Erica Schwartz said; CDC's site listed zero 2026 deaths as of Sept. 11, before hers.
    Ongoing2

    This story has run 3 times over 17 days, starting Aug 28.

    1. Pennsylvania reports 2 measles-associated deaths, its first in 35 years, as coroner disputes infant case
    2. CDC leaves two Pennsylvania measles deaths out of its national count
    3. Unvaccinated 40-year-old Pennsylvania woman dies of measles complications, third death tied to outbreak — this issue

  2. Brokers offered to secure Trump pardon for $300,000 on hidden camera

    Jack Burkman and Jacob Wohl pitched Ammon Covino a Trump pardon. He taped them on hidden CBS cameras as they saw a grant as soon as October after Justice denied him in July; pardon lobbying is legal.

  3. Trump threatens trade cutoff with some nations unless Fed lowers rates despite 3.4% inflation

    BLOOMBERGInflation and the Fed

    Trump said he would cut off all trade with "some nations" unless the Fed lowers rates. NEC director Kevin Hassett downplayed the threat on CNN, saying he does not expect trade "to go to zero." The White House will back whatever Fed chair Kevin Warsh and the board decide Wednesday, Sept. 16, he said.

    Annual inflation held at 3.4% in data published Friday, Sept. 11, above the Fed's 2% target for more than five years (The Guardian). August's increase was energy-led: gasoline rose 27.4% from a year earlier. Core inflation eased to 2.4% (BLS).

    The detailsTrump wrote this month the US should have the "LOWEST RATE of any country in the World" and the Fed Board must "BE PATRIOTS."2 details
    • Trump wrote this month the US should have the "LOWEST RATE of any country in the World" and the Fed Board must "BE PATRIOTS."
    • Warsh was sworn in as Fed chair in May 2026 at a White House ceremony where Trump told him to be "totally independent."
    Ongoing1

    This story has run 2 times over 2 days, starting Sep 12.

    1. Consumer prices rose 0.4% in August and 3.4% over the year, lifting September Fed rate hike odds above 80%
    2. Trump threatens trade cutoff with some nations unless Fed lowers rates despite 3.4% inflation — this issue

  4. Johnson says $5,000 checks need Congress; Trump says they'll happen '100%'

    NBC NEWSUpdate

    House Speaker Mike Johnson (Rep-R Louisiana) said Sunday, Sept. 13 that the checks need Congress to act. Hours later, Trump said from Ireland they will happen "100%." Asked why not send them now, while Republicans hold Congress, Trump said Democrats would leave the country "in shambles."

    Sep. 13 — Trump promised $5,000 per adult if Republicans hold Congress, with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick floating $5 million visa fees as the fourth pay-for in two days and no funding enacted.

    Cost and condition$5,000 would go to every American adult only if Republicans hold the House and Senate.2 details
    • $5,000 would go to every American adult only if Republicans hold the House and Senate.
    • Total cost tops $1 trillion against a nearly $1.8 trillion annual deficit.

  5. Supreme Court blocks Missouri redraw, leaving 2022 House map favoring GOP in 6 of 8 districts

    FOX NEWSUpdateCourts and the adminis…

    The state ran its August primary under the blocked lines. AP estimates more than 1 million voters — nearly a fourth of the electorate — could land in a different district in November than in August.

    Sept. 13 — The Supreme Court's brief order gave no reasoning. The blocked map had been drawn to give Republicans a path to 7 of 8 House seats, up from 6.

  6. Tom Tiffany (Rep-R Wisconsin) and pilot escape sinking plane in Lake Wausau

    FOX NEWS

    Tiffany, the Trump-endorsed GOP nominee for Wisconsin governor, and pilot Leonard Boltz escaped after losing power on approach to Wausau airport just before 9 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 12 and were rescued by airboat at 9:05 p.m.

    • Tiffany needed 12 stitches for a gash above his right eye and Boltz four; both were released from the hospital.
    • He faces David Crowley (D-WI) for governor on Nov. 3, 2026.
    • The FAA and NTSB are investigating the loss of power.
Elections2 bites

  1. CBS model puts Democrats at 228 House seats, a majority, on 54-46 generic ballot lead

    THE HILL

    Democrats need 218 seats for a House majority, with the range running from 215, where Republicans hold it, to the high 230s.

  2. Cornyn, Abbott denounce Texas GOP nominee Bo French for calling Asian American students a problem

    TEXAS TRIBUNE

    Bo French (R-TX) posted photos of South Asian students celebrating Texas's upset win over top-ranked Ohio State, writing Americans had been 'displaced by foreigners.'

    The rebuke and the raceCornyn and Abbott condemned the posts, as did House Speaker Dustin Burrows and state Reps.3 details
    • Cornyn and Abbott condemned the posts, as did House Speaker Dustin Burrows and state Reps. Lacey Hull and Jared Patterson.
    • Attorney General Ken Paxton declined to condemn French and accused James Talarico (D-TX), his Democratic opponent, of racism instead.
    • French, a former Tarrant County GOP chair, is the nominee for Texas Railroad Commissioner, which regulates oil and gas. He faces Jon Rosenthal (St Rep-D Texas) in November.
Election Bites1 bite

  1. Russian jet drone hits Kyiv-Warsaw train locomotive 1.2 miles from Polish border, hurting no one

    BBC NEWS2026 midterms

    BBC NEWS: Russian jet drone hits Kyiv-Warsaw train locomotive 1.2 miles from Polish border, hurting no one

    A Russian jet-propelled drone hit the locomotive of a Kyiv-to-Warsaw passenger train at Yahodyn station on Sunday, Sept. 13, 1.2 miles from Poland. The operator detected the drone and evacuated the train 15 minutes before impact; no one was hurt. A diplomatic train carrying Boris Johnson and UK national security adviser Jonathan Powell had left minutes earlier. Former CIA director David Petraeus was on another train at the station.

    • Poland's Donald Tusk counted 13 drone strikes near the border that night, including a filling-station fire that hurt two drivers. More than 600 people were evacuated from two crossings.
    • The railway counted 72 Russian attacks on its infrastructure in August-November 2025, then 127 from December to mid-May 2026 (Kyiv Independent). Cumulative damage through the first quarter: 209 locomotives, 239 carriages, 86 bridges, 50 stations.

Elections22 races

The midterms · 50 days out · November 3, 2026

D or R take the House / Senate?

Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT

U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 88%, Kalshi 86%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 53%, Kalshi 49%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

U.S. House — Democrats take it, 85.5–87.5%
88%86%chance Democrats take it · 2.0pp apart · both venues up this week
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 88% and Kalshi 86%.
U.S. Senate — Democrats take it, 48.5–52.5%
53%49%chance Democrats take it · 4.0pp apart · no clear move — one venue moved, the other did not
U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 53% and Kalshi 49%.

3 closest races

  • rTexas SenateJames Talarico 50.5%▲1.0Ken Paxton 49.5%

    POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election

    James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).

    A dead heat — the two sides are priced within a point of each other.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas Senate

    Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 49.5%, Kalshi 51.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 49.5%, Kalshi 49.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • vOhio SenateSherrod Brown 52.0%Jon Husted 47.3%▲3.0

    POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election

    Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).

    A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio Senate

    Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 51.5%, Kalshi 52.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 47.0%, Kalshi 47.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • yNevada governorJoe Lombardo 53.3%Aaron Ford 46.5%▲6.7

    POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election

    Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).

    Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Republican side holds a narrow lead, but no race here has moved more this week: it is down about seven points.

    Two markets, one question

    Nevada governor

    Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 4.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 51.0%, Kalshi 55.5%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 48.5%, Kalshi 44.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

The other 19 races22 races · 12 still in doubt · Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT · markets, not polling

Senate8 of 10

  • sAlaska SenateMary Peltola 67.3%▲2.6Dan Sullivan 34.8%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election

    Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).

    A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska Senate

    Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 67.5%, Kalshi 67.0%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 33.5%, Kalshi 36.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • aaGeorgia SenateJon Ossoff 92.90%Collins 7.38%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election

    Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia Senate

    Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.4pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 93.0%, Kalshi 92.8%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 7.60%, Kalshi 7.15%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.4pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • tIowa SenateAshley Hinson 61.0%Josh Turek 39.5%▲3.9

    POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election

    Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).

    An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa Senate

    Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 60.5%, Kalshi 61.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 39.5%, Kalshi 39.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • qMaine SenateTroy Jackson 68.5%Collins 31.5%▲1.5

    POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election

    Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).

    Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Maine Senate

    Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 4.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 70.5%, Kalshi 66.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 29.5%, Kalshi 33.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • uMichigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed 60.5%Mike Rogers 40.5%▲4.9

    POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election

    Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).

    The Democratic side holds a clear lead after the Republican side gained about five points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan Senate

    Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 60.5%, Kalshi 60.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 40.5%, Kalshi 40.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • abNebraska SenatePete Ricketts 68.8%Dan Osborn 29.8%▲1.0

    POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election

    Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Nebraska Senate

    Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 67.0%, Kalshi 70.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 31.5%, Kalshi 28.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • acNew Hampshire SenateChris Pappas 84.3%▲2.815.8%Sununu

    POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election

    Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side lost about three points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    New Hampshire Senate

    Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 84.5%, Kalshi 84.0%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 15.0%, Kalshi 16.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • zNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 92.0%▲0.38.7%Whatley

    POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election

    Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    North Carolina Senate

    Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.7pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 92.0%, Kalshi 91.9%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 9.0%, Kalshi 8.3%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.7pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Governors11 of 12

  • aeAlaska governorWilson 26.75%72.3%Begich 0.90%▲3.5

    POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election

    Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).

    Wilson holds a commanding lead after losing about three points in five days.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska governor

    Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 27.5%, Kalshi 26.0%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 1.35%, Kalshi 0.45%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • agArizona governorKatie Hobbs 87.3%▲1.113.0%Biggs

    POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election

    Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Arizona governor

    Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 87.0%, Kalshi 87.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 12.5%, Kalshi 13.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • akFlorida governorByron Donalds 80.8%19.8%▲1.0Jolly

    POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election

    Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).

    Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Florida governor

    Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 81.0%, Kalshi 80.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 19.0%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • xGeorgia governorKeisha Lance Bottoms 55.8%Rick Jackson 44.5%▲0.8

    POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election

    Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).

    Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia governor

    Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 57.0%, Kalshi 54.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 43.5%, Kalshi 45.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • adIowa governorRob Sand 77.0%▲1.5Zach Lahn 23.3%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election

    Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa governor

    Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 76.5%, Kalshi 77.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 23.5%, Kalshi 23.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • afMichigan governorJocelyn Benson 91.4%▲2.88.3%James

    POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election

    Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side lost about three points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan governor

    Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 92.0%, Kalshi 90.8%; John James (R): Polymarket 6.5%, Kalshi 10.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aiNew York governorKathy Hochul 93.33%Blakeman 7.47%▲0.7

    POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election

    Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    New York governor

    Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.3pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 94.50%, Kalshi 92.15%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 6.50%, Kalshi 8.45%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.3pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • pOhio governorAmy Acton 55.8%Vivek Ramaswamy 45.8%▲2.1

    POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election

    Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).

    Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio governor

    Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 55.0%, Kalshi 56.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 45.0%, Kalshi 46.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • ajPennsylvania governorJosh Shapiro 96.75%Garrity 3.05%

    POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election

    Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Pennsylvania governor

    Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.4pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 96.95%, Kalshi 96.55%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.35%, Kalshi 3.75%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.4pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • ahTexas governorGreg Abbott 81.72%▲1.118.00%Hinojosa

    POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election

    Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas governor

    Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 80.95%, Kalshi 82.50%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 18.5%, Kalshi 17.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • wWisconsin governorDavid Crowley 81.5%▲0.3Tiffany 19.0%

    POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election

    David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).

    An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Wisconsin governor

    Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 82.5%, Kalshi 80.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 17.5%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Sep 13, 10:01 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.

Not news news1 story

Ongoing1 earlier update8 days

This story has run 2 times over 8 days, starting Sep 6.

  1. Part of the Kennedy Center grand foyer ceiling collapsed during Sept. 4 storms, no injuries
  2. Kennedy Center warns of 'certain financial collapse' within weeks and closure as soon as Tuesday, Sept. 15 — this issue
WASHINGTON POST

Kennedy Center warns of 'certain financial collapse' within weeks and closure as soon as Tuesday, Sept. 15

Internal papers say adding Donald Trump's name to the building may be the only way to avoid bankruptcy.

A 57-page packet sent to trustees before a special board meeting Tuesday, Sept. 15 warns the Center could be unable to make payroll or pay routine maintenance contracts within weeks. The papers call the shortfall 'certain financial collapse.' A federal judge enjoined the shutdown on May 29 and ordered Trump's name off the building; performances stopped anyway after July 4, under the board's March 16 renovation vote. About 300 staff remain on the payroll; the papers warn 75 to 175 positions would go in a full shutdown.

How ticket and donor demand fell after the takeoverSubscription sales for fall 2025 were down about $1.6 million, roughly 36 percent, against the prior year.3 details
  • Subscription sales for fall 2025 were down about $1.6 million, roughly 36 percent, against the prior year.
  • Ticket buyers were down about 70 percent against the same period in each of the prior three years; 43 percent of seats sat unsold Sept. 3-Oct. 19 against 7 percent in 2024 — both figures from the trustees' packet reported by the Post.
  • Washington National Opera — resident since 1971 — left in January 2026, saying the Center's new requirement that productions be fully funded in advance does not fit its finances (NPR); it now sues over $17 million in withheld donations.
Currently showing From 7% to 43% of seats unsold
From 7% to 43% of seats unsold
Unsold seats jumped from 7% to 43%Share of available seats unsold — 2024 against the Sept. 3–Oct. 19, 2026 windowSame window in 20247%Sept. 3–Oct. 19, 202643%0%25%50%Ticket buyers were also down about 70% vs. the same period in each of the prior three years;fall subscription sales fell about $1.6 million — roughly 36% — against the prior year.Source: 57-page packet to trustees before the Sept. 15 board meeting, reported by The Washington Post.
From 7% to 43% of seats unsold

Related reading

RELATEDJudge ordered Trump's name off the Kennedy Center and blocked its shutdown on May 29, 2026

Joyce Beatty (Rep-D Ohio), a board member, sued her own board Dec. 22, 2025; the court held only Congress can change a name set by statute in 1964.

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